I keep reading the comments that the Giants can't pick a QB at 1.06 unless they have complete conviction on him.
I keep seeing comments such as "missing on a QB at 1.06 would set the team back". "If you pick a QB at 1.06 you have to be right".
I totally disagree with this thinking. The *only* time that type of comment makes sense is when is when you trade up for that pick. If you miss on a Goff, Wentz or Trubisky type deal - when you have traded several premium picks from the current and future seasons - then yes, you're screwed. It typically cost you at least two #1s and a couple of other day 2 picks.
Staying at your original draft slot and picking the QB is no more of a gamble/involves more downside than any other position.
The days of having to pay rookie QBs tens of millions of dollars more than other position players are over. Due to the rookie wage scale these aren't the Sam Bradford days of 10 years ago. Will a rookie QB cost more than a different position in the same draft slot - yes but not to a crippling degree. So the money argument holds no water.
Any player we pick at 1.06 can turn out to be great or be a bust there's no sure thing. If they don't like any of the QBs, so be it but to say you can't pick the QB at 1.06 because involves some greater amount of risk, makes no sense.
The real risk here, is continuing to pass on a QB when your record allows you to get one at your original draft slot. Eventually, you will paint yourself into a corner where you have to make one of those QB mega deals that cost you 2 years worth of premium draft picks. Missing at that point, will indeed set the team back.
But the biggest reason the Giants have mostly sucked since SB 46 is whiffing on so many premium picks. Can’t afford to keep doing so, whether we take a QB this year or not
I have asked several times, how was missing on Flowers, Pugh, Apple, less of a set back than missing on a quarterback.
Also at 6, name a player who will probably will be left that fits the refrain, “Can’t miss”
Having to be certain about the quarterback is no more valid a reason for passing on a quarterback than any other position
If your priority is you want the to build the defense and ride with Eli, fine. But don’t frame it as if it s the only responsible thing to do.
year 2...first year starting..if he is not a starting qb we will struggle.
year 3...same as first
year 4 pick new qb start him right away and struggle
plus we would not get a chance to use early pick in year 3 to get a new qb since we would have to give our guy more than 1 year to start.
Is it the end of the world, no? Of course, not, that's silly. Would it be really bad for the Giants? Yes, Flowers bad, Apple bad.
Meanwhile, other QBs have been passed on in the meanwhile and now after a few years your back to square one...
If you pick a bad QB at 6, you miss out on maybe an impact player at another position and then have to spend assets on another draft or trade to make up for it.
TB: Josh Freeman (2009) / Jameis Winston (2015)… Since 2019, 55 wins 105 losses, last place 8 of last 10 seasons
TEN: Jake Locker (2011) / Marcus Marriota (2015)… Since 2011, 54 wins 74 losses, 1 playoff appearance
JAX: Blaine Gabbert (2011) / Blake Bortles (2014)… Since 2011, 37 wins 91 losses, 1 playoff appearance
Only one of those teams traded up (Jacksonville with Gabbert)
We've survived being maimed repeatedly over the last decade. How fun was it? We need to make better choices, and pick good prospects. The evaluation needs to be better.
don't not take a QB because you're paralyzed by the fear of picking the wrong one. But if you take one, you need the conviction that he belongs in the tier of prospects you're choosing from. at #6, any player taken, including QB, needs to be a top prospect. Maybe the elite prospects are gone, but the rest aren't all equal. There are tiers of talent prospects. you choose from the top tier. If a QB is in that tier, take him.
After 2-3 years, if you're undecided on him, move on if opportunity presents itself.
After 2-3 years, if you're undecided on him, move on if opportunity presents itself.
Yup, like the Chargers. Drafted Drew Brees in 2001, drafted Phillip Rivers in 2004. Smart.
That's usually not the case with a QB, who is given at least 3-4 seasons... Situations like John Elway and Kyler Murray (both likely #1 overall) are the exceptions rather than the norm
I have asked several times, how was missing on Flowers, Pugh, Apple, less of a set back than missing on a quarterback.
Also at 6, name a player who will probably will be left that fits the refrain, “Can’t miss”
Having to be certain about the quarterback is no more valid a reason for passing on a quarterback than any other position
If your priority is you want the to build the defense and ride with Eli, fine. But don’t frame it as if it s the only responsible thing to do.
Flowers and Apple killed us. Period. It's not because of their position, it's because we blew two consecutive top ten picks.
So forcing a QB because it's QB, without conviction, is not a smart move.
A blown pick at 1.06 is a blown pick no matter what the position.
There is no greater probability of being a bust for the QB at 1.06 than any other position being picked at 1.06. These guys make it sound like the pass rusher will definitely improve the team while only the QB is a gamble.
At the other positions, a team can be more willing to move on, unless the GM’s ego prevents him from doing that.
Flowers was a big screwup because he really couldn’t play the position and Reese never found any competition. Apple was just a bad pick but the team moved on.
Coughlin and McAdoo should be really embarrassed if Flowers can be a decent guard.
So forcing a QB because it's QB, without conviction, is not a smart move.
Nowhere did I say anything about forcing the pick to be a QB. In fact, I stated "if they don't like any of the QBs, so be it". The point is, the risk of a bust is no greater with a QB at 1.06 than any other position.
Thank you
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In comment 14385647 joeinpa said:
So forcing a QB because it's QB, without conviction, is not a smart move.
Nowhere did I say anything about forcing the pick to be a QB. In fact, I stated "if they don't like any of the QBs, so be it". The point is, the risk of a bust is no greater with a QB at 1.06 than any other position.
The problem is if the player busts you have a certain minimum commitment when it comes to a QB versus other positions. Arizona is unlikely to get the equivalent of 15th Pick value in trading Rosen. If the Giants pick wrong at QB they are probably stuck with him until 2022 or 2023 draft or have an asset you can’t move. You pick an EDGE and he ends up not meeting expectations, no big deal investing in another next year or the year after because the cost of rookie salary for the second is less than what a UFA would cost. You do not want to be paying 2 QB’s first round money even on rookie contracts.
The problem is if the player busts you have a certain minimum commitment when it comes to a QB versus other positions. Arizona is unlikely to get the equivalent of 15th Pick value in trading Rosen. If the Giants pick wrong at QB they are probably stuck with him until 2022 or 2023 draft or have an asset you can’t move. You pick an EDGE and he ends up not meeting expectations, no big deal investing in another next year or the year after because the cost of rookie salary for the second is less than what a UFA would cost. You do not want to be paying 2 QB’s first round money even on rookie contracts.
That is why I don't buy the "Kansas City Model" as Gettleman seems to love. The KC model is the exception rather than the rule. If we're in contention next year, yeah I guess you have to stick with Eli. If at some point you fall out of contention or even just get out to a bad start say 2-5 or whatever, you have to play the rookie. I think your only commitment is through the first two years. by that time you know if he's not your guy. And there is always some team that would be willing to part with say a 4th (or even 3rd) rounder for a former 1st round QB. Either because they are desperate at the position or they think they're own "Quarterback Guru" can coach up the kid to be at least a solid backup. The same can not be said for most other position players.
So we can't afford to reach for a player just because his position is QB, which is what some people want. Draft a QB no matter what because its so important is a bad policy. We need a player who will contribute immediately and play for a while.
If a pass rusher or tackle “busts” you can try to scheme around them. You can even rotate in and out with a pass rusher. A QB making bad decisions or bad throws is difficult to scheme around aside from going run heavy.
Trust your scouting and pick whoever you have a conviction on when you are on the clock. Every position and every player has the potential to bust so you can’t draft with the goal of not screwing up.
Well said. This is basically the point I'm trying to make.
If the Giants pass on Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Haskins, Lock and Jones I really would like to know what the fuck Gettleman is hoping to see in a prospect. You can’t just wait around until Peyton Manning shows up in the draft.
Drafting a qb isn’t the same as drafting a linebacker or wr or OL. The ramifications last for years.
However you have to consider lost opportunity
If you pass on an All Pro DL then the pick is viewed differently
The Giants miss on any QBs in 2020 bc they’re committed to this QB.
They give him a leash through 2021, and if the team still sucks the GM and HC get canned.
New GM and coach start the process all over again.
A bad decision at QB could set the franchise back for a considerable amount of time — not just the roster but the FO.
It’s not as simple as, “welp he was a bust, better luck next year.”
DG appropriately wants conviction w the next QB bc people’s jobs are going to be on the line the moment they make that pick.
He said it this offseason.
He said it this offseason.
Well he also thought Jonathan Stewart was still a productive player so I would consider the merit of each quote on its own rather than too liberally giving the benefit of the doubt.
And he's already cut, so....
And he's already cut, so....
I think he was supposed to not sign him in the first place.
He said it this offseason.
This is the same GM who told us that getting one first rounder and Peppers for OBJ is the same as getting two first rounders for him. He's come up with several other gems as well.
I give no credence to anything Gettleman says.
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We signed this washed up guy to play RB?
And he's already cut, so....
I think he was supposed to not sign him in the first place.
You're right, no GM in the league ever makes mistakes. Just ours.
Not to mention the Stewart signing had little to no affect either way on the team and was just a blip on the radar of NYG history. Let's harp on it.
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General Manager of the New York Football Giants is on record as saying that picking the wrong QB will set the franchise back five years.
He said it this offseason.
This is the same GM who told us that getting one first rounder and Peppers for OBJ is the same as getting two first rounders for him. He's come up with several other gems as well.
I give no credence to anything Gettleman says.
You don't give any credence? Great. Another poster who thinks they are smarted than the GM.
When you pick a QB at #6, you are making an investment that he is the guy of the future. You are going to give him a couple of years of chances before moving off - even if he's poor. If he's mediocre, you spend more. If he's Matt Stafford - you make him the highest paid QB....
Point is - 5 years may be right. It is certainly a much better view than saying picking the wrong QB at #6 is easy to move away from - which is essentially what you're saying. It takes just as much risk to move away from a QB quickly as it does to pick them in the first place.
You can continue to give no credence to what Gettleman says - but you're likely to sound fairly idiotic if you do it often.
The hate for DG is really just an extension of the hate for John Mara, and the fact that Mara replaced Reese not with an "outsider," a young up-and-comer, a "GM Flavor-of-the-month" kind of guy, but with an old hand who was part of the "Mara/Giants family" for a long time.
It's also an extension of the hate for Eli Manning, for whom DG expressed his support. Had DG drafted a QB last year, you wouldn't see the hate manifest itself so much. Rest assured, though, if DG drafts a QB this year, it will be the "wrong" QB, or simply too little, too late.
In fairness, DG did make some questionable free-agent signings last year. Stewart and Omameh head that list. As if no other GM in history ever made a questionable free agent signing or two.
DG was handed quite a formidable task. Change the culture in the locker room, fix the finances, and turn a perennial loser into a winner. Not easily accomplished in one year, but then patience as a virtue is becoming a thing of the past.
Your best chance of getting the right guy is having a high enough pick so that your guy will still be there.
That's why a lot of people thought that the team should have taken a QB last season when they were sitting at two and the pool of quarterbacks was supposed to be large.
This season, sitting at six but with another first round pick, they can still get the top guy on their list by moving up if necessary.
Next season they will HAVE to draft a QB (absent a trade for a vet) and if they have the 14th pick and no extra premium picks then they will have the least control over they get.
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He's been here only one year, he had a really good draft, and he made some good trades & acquisitions. I think getting #17, a former 1st rd pick who will replace Collins, and a 3rd, is a pretty good haul for a disgruntled WR who was somewhat of a primadonna
The hate for DG is really just an extension of the hate for John Mara, and the fact that Mara replaced Reese not with an "outsider," a young up-and-comer, a "GM Flavor-of-the-month" kind of guy, but with an old hand who was part of the "Mara/Giants family" for a long time.
It's also an extension of the hate for Eli Manning, for whom DG expressed his support. Had DG drafted a QB last year, you wouldn't see the hate manifest itself so much. Rest assured, though, if DG drafts a QB this year, it will be the "wrong" QB, or simply too little, too late.
In fairness, DG did make some questionable free-agent signings last year. Stewart and Omameh head that list. As if no other GM in history ever made a questionable free agent signing or two.
DG was handed quite a formidable task. Change the culture in the locker room, fix the finances, and turn a perennial loser into a winner. Not easily accomplished in one year, but then patience as a virtue is becoming a thing of the past.
That's an excellent take
Trading Vernon. What? He was our best defensive player last year! Yeah...that's like being the tallest Little Person...as if his 40 tackles and seven sacks per year are lost forever. Sheesh.
And you'd think DG would get a kudo or two for not breaking the bank to re-sign Landon Collins, but no. Not even for that. It's all Depends jokes Early Bird Specials.
Reese destroyed this team with bad picks. Missing out on a perennial all pro vs a bust isn’t the end of the world. True. But being forced to pick a QB to shut up stupid fans who read some draft prospectus while they take time away from Madden is stupid.
What is a fallacy is that you need to draft a QB in the top 10 to win