right?
And I'm saying this in reference to Kyler Murray moreso than Josh Rosen as it relates to the Giants.
The second the Cardinals turn in that draft card, if it is indeed Murray, Rosen's value has has to be slashed in half of what it is this week and early next, right? Because everybody will then definitively know that Rosen is on the block and they will take what they can get.
IMO, if Rosen is not traded prior to the start of the draft, I think that means they are not taking Murray and the Giants need to be prepared for that scenario if Murray is their guy, and should have two potential trade packages ready for both SF and NYJ.
As it relates to the Giants, I don't think we need to get into that bidding war depending on how we view other QB's at 6.
^This. Rosen's trade value doesn't decrease if he's not traded before the draft. This is a weak QB class, but most teams who want Lock or Haskins will still have to pay a lot more than they would for Rosen. Rosen's contract is also much cheaper than either of those two. My guess is plenty of teams will be interested.
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You make good points. I was under this same assumption. But even if they take Murray, all they need is two teams interested in Rosen to start a bidding war AT the draft. If there are teams more bearish on Rosen, obviously Cards might get less.....all it takes is two teams that want him to drive that price. While his value goes down, you might have teams bidding against eachother getting the trade value back up.
As it relates to the Giants, I don't think we need to get into that bidding war depending on how we view other QB's at 6.
I agree with this...options exist beyond Rosen. Essentially, Washington will end up bidding against themselves for Rosen in this scenario (IMHO). Giants can get a QB at 6 without breaking the bank for Rosen.
But more importantly, the only way it crushes Rosen’s value is if there is only one team looking to trade for Rosen. If there is truly on,y one team looking to trade for Rosen, that in and of itself is what is destroying his value, the lack of demand for him.
Lastly, say Giants are on the clock at 17. Murray is a Card. All other QBs were already taken. If your DG, and you’re convinced Rosen is a franchise QB. Do you really NOT pull the trigger with a trade for 17 because the Cards drafted Murray? Who cares about what the Cards did or didn’t draft, if you think Rosen is your best option at 17, you trade for him. Especially relevant if you aren’t the only team interested in him.
If a team jumps ahead of the Giants and takes their first choice, Rosen may be more valuable to them as second choice.
Let’s see how this plays out.
No need to re-hash what Rosen is or isn't. I no longer think he's on the Giants radar, right wrong or indifferent.
No need to re-hash what Rosen is or isn't. I no longer think he's on the Giants radar, right wrong or indifferent.
Well if Murray is there, I would wager Shumur loves him, but DG probably not so sure. He comes from the old school Giants way. They aren't taking a QB untill they both agree on one. It is all moot though as it is a certainty he goes to zona, no?
I had wondered that myself and wrote a post about that last month.
I still believe that Murray is going to the Cardinals, so it's all moot. But as I think of it, if the Cardinals pass on Murray and draft Bosa, that would put the Niners and Jets in play to trade up to get Murray, since I believe that he will not get past the Raiders at 4 if he were ever to fall that far.
And that would mean making a deal with SF, who appeared to be a little upset with the way the Odell deal went down. And I wonder if part of their plan was to wait the Giants out and see if Murray fell and they would use that as leverage to get Odell on draft day with other picks moving around, but Gettleman pulled the plug on them. Either way, I don't think they would be an accommodating trade partner. So let's pretend they go ahead and draft Williams or someone else.
That means the Jets at #3. The Giants and Jets have never made a trade in their history. Never. Not even to swap 7th rounders or something. The Jets would similarly hold up the Giants, since the last thing they would do is potentially put Murray with the Giants and watch a decade of Murray and Saquon. They care more about selling more tickets and taking headlines from the Giants instead of winning.
Bottom line, unless Murray falls to 6, I just don't see it. I'm more apt to believe the Giants will trade up to get into the late first using their 2nd round pick and other picks and take Daniel Jones at around 29/30. Which will annoy the shit out of me, but if the other 2 first rounders are instant starters, I'll have to accept it.
https://corner.bigblueinteractive.com/index.php?mode=2&thread=580273 - ( New Window )
What the Cards need is an accelerator to force some cards on the table. If I were Az I would engage in talks about trading the #1 pick and let it leak.
While it is only an inch or two, many were speculating 5 8, at least there has been another successful NFL QB at his size.
I'm sure 6 and 17 would be just fine with Lynch. I don't think there were hard feelings there, and he said as much.
Doesn't sound too spurned. Now that I think about it, why did the Giants want that #2 badly?
ESPNU replayed The Orange Bowl last night with Alabama vs Oklahoma. and while Murray is a playmaker, he is one small dude out there.
Put me in the camp with those seriously concerned about whether he can take the beating in the NFL.
And I know the rules are much stiffer for hits on a QB but you cannot undo them.
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"I think ironically the fact that we had the No. 2 pick made it more difficult because they wanted that badly," Lynch said. "They wanted two No. 1s, and we weren't willing to part with that. That's too valuable of a pick even for a player of his magnitude. So, we tried to come up with creative different ways to get it down and it didn't work out and you move on."
Doesn't sound too spurned. Now that I think about it, why did the Giants want that #2 badly?
It's not that they wanted the #2 pick. Its they wanted 2 first rounders this year. That was the cost of doing business for Gettleman. So the fact that the Niners was a problem because they believed it was too valuable and wanted to swap spots. That didn't help the Giants, they wanted 2 first round picks, not the 2nd overall (necessarily). To that meant the Niners had to find a way to acquire a 2nd first round pick. The obvious move was to trade their 2nd rounder to move up into the first round.
Now, here is where the Browns come in. To get value to the Giants, and if they wouldn't give up #2 overall, that meant they had to get a first round pick that was better than #17 overall to jump the Browns. Odds of that happening probably were not good, and Gettleman decided to strike while the iron was hot. I'm sure the 49ers would have wanted a chance to figure out it, but Gettleman got what he wanted, a 1st, 3rd, and a young starter who was a former first round pick at a position of need (and also saw it's price tag shoot up out of nowhere, so very cost effective).
That's why the Niners picking at #2 was a problem for them. It made the valuation a problem between the teams. If they picked at 10, they probably do offer a better deal than Cleveland did.
I also think it helped the Giants to ship Odell out of the NFC so they won't have to worry about him, and probably a side benefit was sticking him in Cleveland when they knew he wanted to be in LA or at least in California. That was their subtle FU for Li'l Wayne headaches.
Seemed that Rosen was a goner, and now talks seem to have dissipated.
Then Gettleman starts talking about the "KC model" and Manning says he was only told in the past month or so that he'd be back.
Obviously the Cards can draft Murray and this will all be for not. But if they don't, I really can see a scenario where the Giants trade up to 2 to take him, they've got the ammunition to do so, and for all we know the line of communication was opened during the OBJ talk: "Hey, sorry it didn't work out, but we may want that 2 still and we'll be in touch".
I had no one specific in mind
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"I think ironically the fact that we had the No. 2 pick made it more difficult because they wanted that badly," Lynch said. "They wanted two No. 1s, and we weren't willing to part with that. That's too valuable of a pick even for a player of his magnitude. So, we tried to come up with creative different ways to get it down and it didn't work out and you move on."
Doesn't sound too spurned. Now that I think about it, why did the Giants want that #2 badly?
It's not that they wanted the #2 pick. Its they wanted 2 first rounders this year. That was the cost of doing business for Gettleman. So the fact that the Niners was a problem because they believed it was too valuable and wanted to swap spots. That didn't help the Giants, they wanted 2 first round picks, not the 2nd overall (necessarily). To that meant the Niners had to find a way to acquire a 2nd first round pick. The obvious move was to trade their 2nd rounder to move up into the first round.
Now, here is where the Browns come in. To get value to the Giants, and if they wouldn't give up #2 overall, that meant they had to get a first round pick that was better than #17 overall to jump the Browns. Odds of that happening probably were not good, and Gettleman decided to strike while the iron was hot. I'm sure the 49ers would have wanted a chance to figure out it, but Gettleman got what he wanted, a 1st, 3rd, and a young starter who was a former first round pick at a position of need (and also saw it's price tag shoot up out of nowhere, so very cost effective).
That's why the Niners picking at #2 was a problem for them. It made the valuation a problem between the teams. If they picked at 10, they probably do offer a better deal than Cleveland did.
I also think it helped the Giants to ship Odell out of the NFC so they won't have to worry about him, and probably a side benefit was sticking him in Cleveland when they knew he wanted to be in LA or at least in California. That was their subtle FU for Li'l Wayne headaches.
My read was that Lynch didn't want to part with #2 without getting #6 back in return. You can't just trade away the #2 overall pick for a player as a young, 1st time GM. That #2 pick has way too much value to your franchise vs. a 95 million dollar receiver who has missed significant time due to injury.
A trade in my opinion would have to take place before AZ submits it's card. Let's see who blinks first.
I would think. Man I would love to get Murray...
^^^^
It's this and it has always been this.
If multiple teams are interested Rosen he will be traded at MARKET VALUE (whatever that is). The timing (as in before or during the draft) is irrelevant.
I've used this analogy before, but if you had no other choice but to sell your home immediately, and you only had one bidder, then you'd have to sell at below market price.
But if multiple bidders are interested, the fact that you had to sell immediately would not affect the sale price. Your home would sell at market price.
I will assume that there is a timeline attached to this offer.
I don't think DG wants to be on the clock at pick 6 or 17 and have the Cardinals come calling.
Ideally, You know when AZ picks Murray that you have a deal in place to trade for Rosen so you can focus on the other picks you need to make.
I think it works best for both teams to have this hammered out at the beginning of the draft. AZ gets value and NYG gets their QB, allowing the 1st round picks to go to the defense.
I will assume that there is a timeline attached to this offer.
I don't think DG wants to be on the clock at pick 6 or 17 and have the Cardinals come calling.
Ideally, You know when AZ picks Murray that you have a deal in place to trade for Rosen so you can focus on the other picks you need to make.
I think it works best for both teams to have this hammered out at the beginning of the draft. AZ gets value and NYG gets their QB, allowing the 1st round picks to go to the defense.
I agree for the most part.
I think if and when AZ starts entertaining offers for Rosen they will talk to a number of teams and find out what each team's best and presumably final offer is. However, it's always possible that a team could up their offer on draft day, based on how the draft is going.
For example, Wash, Denver, Cincy, Miami or the NYG may be SOL if the QB they wanted was taken when their pick comes up and at that point they could up their offer for Rosen. If they really want Rosen they might also have to up their offer if one of the other teams does.
But teams aren't going to LOWER their offers right after AZ picks Murray, because they would still be in a competitive bidding situation for Rosen.
It's so hard to tell because while we can speculate Shurmur loves him, what about DG? The Giants love guys that check boxes and DG is a Giants man through and through. Also, I'm really curious how his interviews went. He didn't come off well in public interviews at all. Kind of came across as a dim bulb. Weird we haven't heard about the wonderlics being leaked yet.
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Dave Te Thomas has said as much that NYG has an offer on the table for Rosen, pick 37. That is the starting point and the seed has been planted.
I will assume that there is a timeline attached to this offer.
I don't think DG wants to be on the clock at pick 6 or 17 and have the Cardinals come calling.
Ideally, You know when AZ picks Murray that you have a deal in place to trade for Rosen so you can focus on the other picks you need to make.
I think it works best for both teams to have this hammered out at the beginning of the draft. AZ gets value and NYG gets their QB, allowing the 1st round picks to go to the defense.
I agree for the most part.
I think if and when AZ starts entertaining offers for Rosen they will talk to a number of teams and find out what each team's best and presumably final offer is. However, it's always possible that a team could up their offer on draft day, based on how the draft is going.
For example, Wash, Denver, Cincy, Miami or the NYG may be SOL if the QB they wanted was taken when their pick comes up and at that point they could up their offer for Rosen. If they really want Rosen they might also have to up their offer if one of the other teams does.
But teams aren't going to LOWER their offers right after AZ picks Murray, because they would still be in a competitive bidding situation for Rosen.
Jim, I have to believe DG has a value on Rosen just like he had a value on OBJ. With OBJ they had no time factor to consider. With the scenario of AZ drafting Murray, the Giants are only 5 picks after them and the Rosen situation has a factor to even a small degree on who they pick and when they pick them. Maybe NYG likes Lock and will take him as plan B to the Rosen offer of 37. Lock may not be available at 17 with Denver rumored to like him. DG may decide to get him at 6 and then Rosen will go to another team with one less bidder.
Offers will drop as bidders get their other options.
Time is a factor and the timing will change the value.
That seems very unlikely.
My read was that Lynch didn't want to part with #2 without getting #6 back in return. You can't just trade away the #2 overall pick for a player as a young, 1st time GM. That #2 pick has way too much value to your franchise vs. a 95 million dollar receiver who has missed significant time due to injury.
That seems to be 100% the issue. Hence the Giants telling them they needed 2 first rounders.
For the Giants, swapping picks wasn't going to do it. They wanted 2 first rounders this year. That was the starting point. If I had to guess, the Niners offered the Giants their 2nd rounder and possibly a #1 in 2020. Giants weren't interested. In lieu of having another first round pick, the Niners had to work with their #2 overall. And odds are they probably told the Giants they would trade up into the late first round with their 2nd rounder and give them that pick. And furthermore, the Giants probably said they need to give them a pick in the middle of the first round.
And honestly, in order for the Niners to move up, they'd have to give up their 2nd and perhaps a 3rd as well, and the Giants wanted that third.
Too many moving parts. Too complex. The Browns gave Gettleman exactly what he needed with no frills, and the added benefit they already were working things out around Vernon and Zietler.
The Giants need several players. As great as getting the #2 over all is. I think the Giants will get more benefit picking guys at 6 and 17. The Niners were 1 year too early. If this was 2020, and you had those 3 QBs coming out, the Giants probably make that deal.