PFT: Will Giants skip QB at 6 and take one at 16

The more teams will try to jump the Giants

I can see taking a QB at 6...if the bluechip defensive players are gone.

I understand taking their guy at QB, but the Giants must maximize their value as well.

In comment 14395921 FranchiseQB said:

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if they take Jones 6th the Giants are telling you that they see him as some kind of star. In three years if he is a star you won't care that they overdrafted him by 10 slots this year. If he isn't a star then DG and PS lose their jobs.

I agree that the Giants will obviously be higher on Jones than many assumed. Of course there will be many here who will ignore that fact and criticize the Giants for "reaching for a QB that would likely be there at 17." Of course the truth is that there is nearly no chance that Jones is on the board at 17. Washington is surely going QB at 15 and with this news leaking they might try to trade up higher to prevent the Giants from getting one.

In comment 14395906 George from PA said:

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To clarify I view Jones ranges Nick Foles on the low end Matt Ryan on the high end

We’re not getting another Eli anytime soon, if ever, whether it might have been last year or now, imo. That said, I will take that range for sure. You can certainly win with that with strength in other areas. And Barkley..

is no.

In comment 14395941 Big Blue '56 said:

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In comment 14395906 George from PA said: Quote: To clarify I view Jones ranges Nick Foles on the low end Matt Ryan on the high end We’re not getting another Eli anytime soon, if ever, whether it might have been last year or now, imo. That said, I will take that range for sure. You can certainly win with that with strength in other areas. And Barkley..

You're right but every time I watch Jones play I see alot of Eli Manning at Ole Miss just more athletic obviously.

...

read Paul Schwartz's story today "Why the Giants May Not Pick QB at 6"

Schwartz describes says he was described as a young Eli Manning without the arm talent

them taking the BPA whatever position that may be.

In comment 14395890 FranchiseQB said:

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In comment 14395884 George from PA said: Quote: I understand the logic, how good is a QB that 5 QB needy team pass over? Jones does not have the highest ceiling...he might be 5th in this catagory. But he might have the highest floor. He is safe, makes smart choices....he can win in the NFL. Nick Foles to Matt Ryan....so in right system, strong team...can win a Super Bowl. Seriously? Now we're comparing Matt Ryan to Nick Foles? Is that what this board has come to? Why do people here consistently underrate players on other teams? Listen, Matt Ryan is great. Nick Foles is not great. A QB of Ryan's capability is worth the top pick in the draft. If we knew one of these guys was Matt Ryan we would have to trade up to get him. jeeeeezusss.

I don't think underrating matt ryan is unique to bbi. He is universally underrated/hated on IMO

In comment 14395949 gidiefor said:

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read Paul Schwartz's story today "Why the Giants May Not Pick QB at 6" Schwartz describes says he was described as a young Eli Manning without the arm talent

Polian, Brady Quinn, Kirwan, would disagree re arm talent..If leaked, smokescreen? Who knows?

In comment 14395884 George from PA said:

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I understand the logic, how good is a QB that 5 QB needy team pass over? Jones does not have the highest ceiling...he might be 5th in this catagory. But he might have the highest floor. He is safe, makes smart choices....he can win in the NFL. Nick Foles to Matt Ryan....so in right system, strong team...can win a Super Bowl.

I agree with this logic 100%

Klaatu said:

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Just curious, though. How many teams have had two 1st Round picks and have taken a QB with their second? It's probably a pretty small sample size.

The first example that comes to mind is Cleveland drafting Justin Gilbert at #8, and Johnny Manziel at #22. That's assuming the 2014 Browns count as a "team", and Manziel counts as a "QB".

The 2010 Broncos are an interesting case: Demaryius Thomas at #22, followed just three picks later by Tim Tebow. In a way, they were right about both players: After two modest seasons, Thomas proved himself worthy of the 22nd pick. Tebow, well... didn't.

Browns again in 2007: Joe Thomas at #3, and Brady Quinn at #22. IIRC, they traded up for that pick because Quinn had fallen farther than they expected. Not far enough, as it turned out. ;o)

In DC, the first round of the 2005 Draft will live in infamy. The Redskins took Carlos Rogers at #9 and Jason Campbell at #25, missing out on a differently-spelled Rodgers by one pick. Close call there for the NFC East. Rogers had a nice career, aside from his confessed inability to cover option patterns for San Francisco in the NFC Title Game. Rodgers is... Rodgers.

...we are trading for Josh Rosen with the Giants swapping their First Round Pick at 17 for the Cards Second Round Pick at 33. That is roughly equivalent to the Giants sending the Cards roughly a 20th pick in the Second Round.

Buffalo took Lee Evans at #13 (two picks after Roethlesberger went to Pittsburgh) then settled for J.P. Losman at #22.

Baltimore took Terrell Suggs at #10, followed by Kyle Boller at #19.

The emerging pattern is that all of these QBs basically sucked. Maybe conviction really should matter more than value.

The Jets had three first-round picks in 2000. They waited until the last one to take a QB, after picking Shaun Ellis and John Abraham. Pennington was a nice player, and pretty easy to root for considering the colors he wore; but the concerns about fragility and arm strength were borne out by the way his career wound up.

You either take him at 6 or trade up from 17.

That's quite a few more than I'd thought there'd be.

What I’ve written here about a dozen times already.

He has repeatedly talked about BPA and not reaching for position, I believe he even said something to the effect that QB wasn't "a special case".

I think this team needs a QB, but I don't expect DG to reach for one, nor would I want him to.

Imv the highest player on their board at 6 is likely to be a defender, or perhaps Jonah depending how things fall.

This "conviction" on a QB at 6 stuff just doesn't appear to be DGs style.

Giants38 said:

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What I’ve written here about a dozen times already.

You and about a hundred other posters. Yet they honored your uniquely eloquent and insightful prose by plagiarizing it. Well done.

evades

In comment 14395949 gidiefor said:

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read Paul Schwartz's story today "Why the Giants May Not Pick QB at 6" Schwartz describes says he was described as a young Eli Manning without the arm talent

It’s gonna be awesome when the Giants select a QB because:
1) He looks like Eli;
2) Was coached by Eli’s coach;
3) Has a good relationship with Eli to the point that...
4) Eli is not threatened by him; and
5) Like his background and supposed “mental makeup”.

When introducing Jones after Round 1, it won’t be that he can make all the throws or anything like that. No, it’s that he’s a solid dude who Eli will teach.

If Jones is the guy, get ready for that garbage.

In comment 14395997 Big Blue Blogger said:

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Giants38 said: Quote: What I’ve written here about a dozen times already. You and about a hundred other posters. Yet they honored your uniquely eloquent and insightful prose by plagiarizing it. Well done.

Thanks man!

if you like a QB take him at 6. Look if the best player on the board is a big pass rusher than take him and at 17 if the PBA is a QB you take him there. Its not like there has never been good QBs taken in the mid first round and who is to say at 6 you are correct about a QB just look at Ryan Leaf and so on. Take the PBA at 6. Drew Brees was a taken at 32. If the Giants have 4 guys at QB all rated the same than wait.

In comment 14395864 Sean said:

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with their 2nd first round pick, it doesn’t work. I read the Browns as an example of this. Would prefer more of a conviction.

That's just it. How do they really feel about this group. How many do they have tagged as a "Franchise Quarterback".

In comment 14396002 Giants38 said:

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In comment 14395949 gidiefor said: Quote: read Paul Schwartz's story today "Why the Giants May Not Pick QB at 6" Schwartz describes says he was described as a young Eli Manning without the arm talent It’s gonna be awesome when the Giants select a QB because: 1) He looks like Eli; 2) Was coached by Eli’s coach; 3) Has a good relationship with Eli to the point that... 4) Eli is not threatened by him; and 5) Like his background and supposed “mental makeup”. When introducing Jones after Round 1, it won’t be that he can make all the throws or anything like that. No, it’s that he’s a solid dude who Eli will teach. If Jones is the guy, get ready for that garbage.

If #4 is true then I don't like Jones. I WANT Eli to be threatened! If Eli is threatened then that means the talent level is very good!

Eli knows his time is about to end either way.

that they’ll have to take him at #6. They won’t risk missing out on the QB that they feel is the guy. Jones at #6 is a very strong possibility and so is Haskins or Lock for that matter. There’s too many other teams lurking to risk missing out on the guy you covet. Although I was convinced that the Giants would take a BPA Defender at #6 before, I’m not sold on that anymore. I’m preparing myself for a QB now at #6.

I’m not a talent evaluator, but from a laymen’s eyes I don’t see greatness in any one of them. Giants know better then I and have done extensive research on them. It’s been proven that it’s such an inexact science, drafting a QB. If Jones is the guy, he could turn out to be a very good QB, the the right system.

I am not sure if they like one over the other. I find it funny people just feel no matter what if we like one take him at 6. Hell we could take PBA than trade up and take a QB. There are a lot of options and it depends on what was taken ahead of our pick. We could trade back a couple of spots as well. Who knows but to me taking a QB that is rated a 16th pick at 6 makes no sense to me. There is no guarantee he is the the guy. I say you do the samething and stick to the board.

hey have been signaling it for weeks. Plus JonC, jtgiants, and others who actually hear things have said this. Its obvious, however some have agendas and just see what they want.

Highest graded available at 6, trade 17 for Rosen or wait until 2020

mdthedream said:

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Who knows, but to me taking a QB that is rated a 16th pick at 6 makes no sense... I say you do the same thing and stick to the board.

I doubt any fan wants the Giants to betray their board and reach for a quarterback. Keep in mind, though: there's no such thing as a player being "rated a 16th pick". As an example, take Sy'56's grades so far, with the QBs still pending:

6. S Taylor Rapp Washington 6-0 208 84
7. OT Andre Dillard Washington State 6-5 315 84
8. DT Christian Wilkins Clemson 6-3 315 84[/b]
9. OT Jawaan Taylor Florida 6-5 312 84
10 DT Ed Oliver Houston 6-2 287 84
11 CB Byron Murphy Washington 5-11 190 83
12 CB DeAndre Baker Georgia 5-11 193 83
13 LB Devin White LSU 6-0 237 83
14 Edge Montez Sweat Mississippi State 6-6 260 83
15 Edge Clelin Ferrell Clemson 6-4 264 83
16 DT Dre'Mont Jones Ohio State 6-3 281 83

Eleven players, ranked 6-16, have grades of 83 or 84. Who is the "16th best"? Murphy? Jones? Obviously, a team has to rank their preferences at some point, to decide whom to pick; but that doesn't necessarily mean they think one is a better player.

if a higher tier is available.
if a QB is in the top tier available at 6, then strongly consider taking him. But if he's in a lower tier, don't.
any QB considered 'franchise' should be in that top tier.

Bingo!

This insistence by some that you have to take one you like at #6 despite the fact you have other prospects with higher grades makes no sense.

the second 1st round pick.

On one hand, value should be taken very seriously in early rounds and the difference between #6 and #16 is substantial.

Conversely, QBs worth drafting are a rare breed in any draft so waiting to do so risks he will be taken in front of you.

It also may simply come down to have more faith or less risk (i hate the word conviction) in the Defensive Player at pick #6 than the QB at pick #16.

I am a huge subscriber to value in rounds 1-3 so when a guy gets picked is incredibly important as team need has to take a back seat...

The concept of conviction is more important because of the investment. DG is correct that playing QB in NY goes beyond the physical traits. If and when DG picks a QB he is going to go on feel and instinct as much as what his eyes tell him. When he talks about “reaching for a QB”, I think he means taking one just to take one, regardless of the ranking. If one of these guys fit the bill, he will pull the trigger.

In comment 14395890 FranchiseQB said:

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In comment 14395884 George from PA said: Quote: I understand the logic, how good is a QB that 5 QB needy team pass over? Jones does not have the highest ceiling...he might be 5th in this catagory. But he might have the highest floor. He is safe, makes smart choices....he can win in the NFL. Nick Foles to Matt Ryan....so in right system, strong team...can win a Super Bowl. Seriously? Now we're comparing Matt Ryan to Nick Foles? Is that what this board has come to? Why do people here consistently underrate players on other teams? Listen, Matt Ryan is great. Nick Foles is not great. A QB of Ryan's capability is worth the top pick in the draft. If we knew one of these guys was Matt Ryan we would have to trade up to get him. jeeeeezusss.

+1

In comment 14395905 FranchiseQB said:

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In comment 14395901 Sean said: Quote: 1. Take the QB at 6 & go BPA at 17 2. Go BPA at 6 & pay a significant price to move from 17 to the 9-12 range to draft a QB? Which is more preferable? Gettleman said that if they have a 1st round grade on QB, “they love him.” Add in the quotes from Mara & Gettleman about the need to address QB. Even Eli said he expects a QB to be drafted. I just don’t see Gettleman & company sitting on their hands hoping Jones or any QB falling to 17. So, ask yourself if you are good with a trade up if not taken at 6. If they think Jones is a future star, then they can't fuck around. Get him at 6 - if he is there. If they think he is a place holder, system qb, then they shouldn't be thinking of drafting him in the first round.

+1

From what I read Jones should be there at 17. Almost nobody has him at 6. Most say there are two QBs that most rate above him Murray and Haskins and then also Lock. The Giants may not feel that way and that is fine. They should still get the best player we can at 6, or trade the pick if Jones is your guy. The 6 pick will have good choices, especially if someone drops.

If he is gone by 17, it means a real good player has dropped.

In comment 14395954 Big Blue '56 said:

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In comment 14395949 gidiefor said: Quote: read Paul Schwartz's story today "Why the Giants May Not Pick QB at 6" Schwartz describes says he was described as a young Eli Manning without the arm talent Polian, Brady Quinn, Kirwan, would disagree re arm talent..If leaked, smokescreen? Who knows?

But Gregg Cosell, David Te and PFF might disagree with the names you just cited. I'm not sure exactly what David Te said other that he felt GMEN would be ultimately disappointed with him.

People -- including me-- are going to believe what we want to believe.

Giants are sort of stuck. No QB is worth the #6 pick, but it might well be too expensive to trade up from #17 to get one, especially considering how much Jones has risen over the last two weeks.

In comment 14396016 mdthedream said:

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if you like a QB take him at 6. Look if the best player on the board is a big pass rusher than take him and at 17 if the PBA is a QB you take him there. Its not like there has never been good QBs taken in the mid first round and who is to say at 6 you are correct about a QB just look at Ryan Leaf and so on. Take the PBA at 6. Drew Brees was a taken at 32. If the Giants have 4 guys at QB all rated the same than wait.

The problem with your view is that you'll rarely ever get the QB you want because more than likely someone else likes him just as much as you and is willing to reach.

If you want to "wait" for rd2 Drew Brees -- good luck. I think as a GM you'd be out of work in a few years if you were trying to rebuild a team.

In comment 14396265 giantstock said:

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In comment 14395954 Big Blue '56 said: Quote: In comment 14395949 gidiefor said: Quote: read Paul Schwartz's story today "Why the Giants May Not Pick QB at 6" Schwartz describes says he was described as a young Eli Manning without the arm talent Polian, Brady Quinn, Kirwan, would disagree re arm talent..If leaked, smokescreen? Who knows? But Gregg Cosell, David Te and PFF might disagree with the names you just cited. I'm not sure exactly what David Te said other that he felt GMEN would be ultimately disappointed with him. People -- including me-- are going to believe what we want to believe.

Since I don’t watch college football, i can only gather info from what I read and respected analysts I look to for knowledge. Still, it’s only their opinion, but I do pay attention. Ultimately, it’s the Giants who are the “experts” here, if you trust their judgement. I trust DG, but he’s not infallable

In comment 14395898 Sammo85 said:

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Same to you. Again, to me the mistake teams make is not trusting their board. Having a conviction on a QB means you have them with a high 1st round grade. Unless they have one QB so far heads and shoulders ahead of others there’s no need to rush a pick at 6 or even 17 for that matter. Too many teams reach on picks based on need or assign “bias” grades for a position like a QB or reach on guys they just like for small nuanced reasons.

Sammo, I did analysis on this earlier this week in a post I made. While I would agree in sentiment with what you're saying, the truth is this strategy is difficult in practice. According to Sy's ranking (which are of course not infallible) there have only been 3 QBs with high first rounds grades since 2013 - and the average top 10 selected QB grade is 81.4. Based on the analysis, unless you are lucky and the timing works out such that you need a QB in the years there are actually top QBs, and you have a top pick or can acquire one, you will have to reach. Or you can keep trying to wait and get timing right.

In comment 14396120 fkap said:

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if a higher tier is available. if a QB is in the top tier available at 6, then strongly consider taking him. But if he's in a lower tier, don't. any QB considered 'franchise' should be in that top tier.

Agreed.

In comment 14395866 Big Blue '56 said:

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that I happen to agree with. But, as I’ve said, to the annoyance of some, if Shurmur likey, I likey. :)

I agree and have also stated the same.

...are fucking mediocre, and would have been 2nd rounders last year?

The Giants should pick any of these guys with either first round pick.

...derp!

No guts, no glory

Giants think Jones is a franchise QB - they weren't going to risk waiting until 17.