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Stupid theory I have

GiantGrit : 4/22/2019 5:38 pm
I'm in full game of thrones / NFL draft mode, meaning my theories and perception of misinformation is crazy right now.

So my theory is the following - the Raiders are all in on taking a QB at 4. Why would they send all of the scouts home until the draft? They don't trust them is the short answer. But i ask myself this - is someone really going to trade up to pass them for a defensive prospect? My believe is no, its a deep draft for defensive linemen so trading up to take one when there will be value later on makes no sense. Devin White? Maybe, Dave Te did say multiple teams love him.

The second part of my theory rests on the assumption the Raiders believe or know another team REALLY wants the same guy and they are concerned they will either -

1. miss him virtue a team trading up 3 with the Jets or
2. have to trade up 1 spot, losing multiple picks in the process.

Who are they most concerned with? I think its the Giants, and i think they either know or have concern the Giants have wanted (i'll opine Lock or Haskins) this entire time. While other teams may just bite the bullet and trade all the way up to 3, its the Giants who are the closest and have the draft capital to really make it happen.

Again, its just a theory. I'll probably be incredibly wrong. Just putting my thinking cap on as to why the Raiders are so paranoid about their pick and Ian Rap is saying they are gonna shock teams with their selection.

Flame away!!!
One, most teams do this with their scouts.  
robbieballs2003 : 4/22/2019 5:47 pm : link
Two, they have 3 first round picks. It isn't just about number 4 overall.
Could be.  
FrankieR : 4/22/2019 5:48 pm : link
Mayock could really really love Haskins and is doing a final sell with Gruden to get the QB.

It also might not surprise me if they traded their other two firsts, along with other picks to the Jets for number 3 so they pick twice in a row.
I agree 100%.  
Big Blue Blogger : 4/22/2019 5:49 pm : link
It’s a stupid theory.

No stupider than most theories about the top six picks though.
RE: One, most teams do this with their scouts.  
nowturnyourheadandcoughlin : 4/22/2019 5:52 pm : link
In comment 14398088 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
Two, they have 3 first round picks. It isn't just about number 4 overall.
Most teams DON'T do that with their scouts. The Raiders have sent their scouting department home for the rest of the draft. Every other team has their scouts as part of the process even on draft day. This is highly unusual.
This is Not quite at the stupid level...  
BamaBlue : 4/22/2019 5:54 pm : link
Stupid is the predictable parade of people the day after Day #1 of the draft who claim to have predicted exactly what the Giants were going to do. That's when stupid comes home to roost.
Maybe you need the stupid  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 4/22/2019 5:58 pm : link
To gain insight into the stupid of John Gruden.
The Raiders Could Take a QB  
Giants38 : 4/22/2019 5:59 pm : link
But it would be hysterical if they did after releasing their draft guide, which features Carr on the cover. I’m assuming this is real.
Link - ( New Window )
I said this earlier...  
Amtoft : 4/22/2019 6:16 pm : link
Raiders could very well be going Haskins. The "most staffs send all their scouts home" is just not true. The Raiders are going to shock people with the 4th pick and they don't want it leaked. I assume because of the Jets willingness to trade out it most likely a QB. The one QB I hear they really like is Haskins who was great in his work out for them. My guess is they are going Haskins and are afraid of the Giants or others jumping them.
RE: I said this earlier...  
GiantGrit : 4/22/2019 6:20 pm : link
In comment 14398126 Amtoft said:
Quote:
Raiders could very well be going Haskins. The "most staffs send all their scouts home" is just not true. The Raiders are going to shock people with the 4th pick and they don't want it leaked. I assume because of the Jets willingness to trade out it most likely a QB. The one QB I hear they really like is Haskins who was great in his work out for them. My guess is they are going Haskins and are afraid of the Giants or others jumping them.


My gut feeling when seeing any team that paranoid is they are taking a qb.
RE: The Raiders Could Take a QB  
FrankieR : 4/22/2019 6:23 pm : link
In comment 14398114 Giants38 said:
Quote:
But it would be hysterical if they did after releasing their draft guide, which features Carr on the cover. I’m assuming this is real. Link - ( New Window )


The Raiders having Carr as their starter does not preclude them from taking a QB. If they took Haskins and had him sit for one year, they can cut him after this year and only deal with Dead Cap of 5 mill in '20 and 2 mill in '21.
RE: RE: I said this earlier...  
nowturnyourheadandcoughlin : 4/22/2019 6:51 pm : link
In comment 14398131 GiantGrit said:
Quote:
In comment 14398126 Amtoft said:


Quote:


Raiders could very well be going Haskins. The "most staffs send all their scouts home" is just not true. The Raiders are going to shock people with the 4th pick and they don't want it leaked. I assume because of the Jets willingness to trade out it most likely a QB. The one QB I hear they really like is Haskins who was great in his work out for them. My guess is they are going Haskins and are afraid of the Giants or others jumping them.



My gut feeling when seeing any team that paranoid is they are taking a qb.
Ding ding ding. Yep. I think what is happening is that there is an internal debate happening on who they want. Sort of like what happened in Cleveland. Most people might not know this but Hue Jackson did not want Baker Mayfield. There was a LONG internal debate within Cleveland about what QB to take. John Dorsey wanted Baker and Hue wanted another QB from the class. Baker knows that Hue didn't want him. That's why you see that angst against him when Baker has played the Bengals. The media doesn't talk about that. That's the reason why Baker dislikes Hue, he's a "hater" in his eyes. Someone who questioned his ability. It was easy for Dorsey to fire Hue after Baker showed exactly what caliber of player he was during the season. It must have been a giant boost to Dorsey's ego to see Baker succeed at the level he did. It's almost like he wanted to keep Hue around just to show him why he is such an idiot for not wanting him. To relate it to Game of Thrones: Hue Jackson was John Dorsey's Reek.
Ok so...  
GiantsRage2007 : 4/22/2019 7:01 pm : link
How bout your GoT theories?
Agree  
Jon C. in MD : 4/22/2019 8:15 pm : link
I’ve thought the raiders have wanted a qb for a long time. (I started a thread a while back asking if the Raiders might take a qb). I also wouldn’t be stunned if Tampa gave up on Jameis Winston. They can cut him from his 5th year option with no cap hit. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the giants or raiders trade up to 3 to get Haskins. But would we have enough draft capital to outbid the raiders?
CBS Sports just posted an article  
kelsto811 : 4/22/2019 8:27 pm : link
About the Raiders "surprise" pick at 4. I feel like its Haskins but how hilarious would it be if they took Metcalf.
RE: Agree  
Giants38 : 4/22/2019 8:28 pm : link
In comment 14398323 Jon C. in MD said:
Quote:
I’ve thought the raiders have wanted a qb for a long time. (I started a thread a while back asking if the Raiders might take a qb). I also wouldn’t be stunned if Tampa gave up on Jameis Winston. They can cut him from his 5th year option with no cap hit. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the giants or raiders trade up to 3 to get Haskins. But would we have enough draft capital to outbid the raiders?


Here are the facts:

1) There have been 11 QBs selected in the first round in the past three drafts
2) Of those 11, 10 have been acquired via trades up
3) The lone exception was Mayfield - last year - when no trade up was required because Cleveland had the 1 pick.

Simply put, it is overwhelmingly likely that after AZ takes Murray, the teams selected Haskins, Jones, and Lock will need to move up to get them. It's just the way it is.

As you said, either a team will jump to 3 and beat both the Raiders and Giants to Haskins. Or the Raiders will swap picks with the Jets to secure Haskins and guard against another team moving up (be it the Giants or another team).

Even if Haskins got by the Raiders, the Giants would likely swap spots with TB to do the same thing - guard against some team leaping them.
Link to article for anyone interested  
kelsto811 : 4/22/2019 8:29 pm : link
The author seems to think it could be a trade up for Murray

Quote:
Rapoport already mentioned a few potential surprises, but the one I floated last week remains at the top of my list. What if the Raiders decide they want to take Murray and then manufacture a trade with the Cardinals to move up to the top of the table? It could explain why the Raiders are so concerned about their plans leaking. If the Raiders were to fail to complete a trade with the Cardinals, they wouldn't want current quarterback Derek Carr to find out they actively tried to replace him. So, the Raiders cleared the room, making sure the scouts -- leftovers from the previous regime who aren't expected to continue working with the team after the draft -- can't leak their plans.

Link - ( New Window )
Throw the remote pick  
Mike in Boston : 4/22/2019 10:07 pm : link
I don't follow college ball, and normally do not have 'throw the remote picks", but if they go with Tyrion Lannister at #6, I just might throw it.
RE: RE: Agree  
Jay in Toronto : 4/22/2019 10:17 pm : link
In comment 14398342 Giants38 said:
Quote:
In comment 14398323 Jon C. in MD said:


Quote:


I’ve thought the raiders have wanted a qb for a long time. (I started a thread a while back asking if the Raiders might take a qb). I also wouldn’t be stunned if Tampa gave up on Jameis Winston. They can cut him from his 5th year option with no cap hit. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the giants or raiders trade up to 3 to get Haskins. But would we have enough draft capital to outbid the raiders?



Here are the facts:

1) There have been 11 QBs selected in the first round in the past three drafts
2) Of those 11, 10 have been acquired via trades up
3) The lone exception was Mayfield - last year - when no trade up was required because Cleveland had the 1 pick.


Interesting. So maybe the Giants' strategy would be to accumulate 2020 Draft capital to trade up next year?
The Theory was more supportable  
Angus : 4/23/2019 5:28 am : link
until the Raiders traded for Antonio Brown. Why go for an older franchise receiver to pair with an in experienced quarterback?
I think them sending their scouts home  
Section331 : 4/23/2019 9:16 am : link
is highly unusual, and it screams to me that Gruden was tired of hearing them rebut his preferences. I'm not saying it means they'll take a QB, but it does give some insight into the dysfunction in that org.
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