I'm in full game of thrones / NFL draft mode, meaning my theories and perception of misinformation is crazy right now.
So my theory is the following - the Raiders are all in on taking a QB at 4. Why would they send all of the scouts home until the draft? They don't trust them is the short answer. But i ask myself this - is someone really going to trade up to pass them for a defensive prospect? My believe is no, its a deep draft for defensive linemen so trading up to take one when there will be value later on makes no sense. Devin White? Maybe, Dave Te did say multiple teams love him.
The second part of my theory rests on the assumption the Raiders believe or know another team REALLY wants the same guy and they are concerned they will either -
1. miss him virtue a team trading up 3 with the Jets or
2. have to trade up 1 spot, losing multiple picks in the process.
Who are they most concerned with? I think its the Giants, and i think they either know or have concern the Giants have wanted (i'll opine Lock or Haskins) this entire time. While other teams may just bite the bullet and trade all the way up to 3, its the Giants who are the closest and have the draft capital to really make it happen.
Again, its just a theory. I'll probably be incredibly wrong. Just putting my thinking cap on as to why the Raiders are so paranoid about their pick and Ian Rap is saying they are gonna shock teams with their selection.
Flame away!!!
It also might not surprise me if they traded their other two firsts, along with other picks to the Jets for number 3 so they pick twice in a row.
No stupider than most theories about the top six picks though.
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My gut feeling when seeing any team that paranoid is they are taking a qb.
The Raiders having Carr as their starter does not preclude them from taking a QB. If they took Haskins and had him sit for one year, they can cut him after this year and only deal with Dead Cap of 5 mill in '20 and 2 mill in '21.
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Raiders could very well be going Haskins. The "most staffs send all their scouts home" is just not true. The Raiders are going to shock people with the 4th pick and they don't want it leaked. I assume because of the Jets willingness to trade out it most likely a QB. The one QB I hear they really like is Haskins who was great in his work out for them. My guess is they are going Haskins and are afraid of the Giants or others jumping them.
My gut feeling when seeing any team that paranoid is they are taking a qb.
Here are the facts:
1) There have been 11 QBs selected in the first round in the past three drafts
2) Of those 11, 10 have been acquired via trades up
3) The lone exception was Mayfield - last year - when no trade up was required because Cleveland had the 1 pick.
Simply put, it is overwhelmingly likely that after AZ takes Murray, the teams selected Haskins, Jones, and Lock will need to move up to get them. It's just the way it is.
As you said, either a team will jump to 3 and beat both the Raiders and Giants to Haskins. Or the Raiders will swap picks with the Jets to secure Haskins and guard against another team moving up (be it the Giants or another team).
Even if Haskins got by the Raiders, the Giants would likely swap spots with TB to do the same thing - guard against some team leaping them.
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I’ve thought the raiders have wanted a qb for a long time. (I started a thread a while back asking if the Raiders might take a qb). I also wouldn’t be stunned if Tampa gave up on Jameis Winston. They can cut him from his 5th year option with no cap hit. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the giants or raiders trade up to 3 to get Haskins. But would we have enough draft capital to outbid the raiders?
Here are the facts:
1) There have been 11 QBs selected in the first round in the past three drafts
2) Of those 11, 10 have been acquired via trades up
3) The lone exception was Mayfield - last year - when no trade up was required because Cleveland had the 1 pick.
Interesting. So maybe the Giants' strategy would be to accumulate 2020 Draft capital to trade up next year?