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Drew Boylhart's top ten + five.

Ira : 4/23/2019 8:32 am
Drew does this every year and like every year, his picks are controversial. I'll list them for your convenience, but on the link below he has a brief explanation for each. For a longer review on a player, go to his Talent Board.

1. Christian Wilkins
2. Dwayne Haskins
3. Clelin Ferrell
4. Josh Jacobs
5. Nick Bosa
6. Greedy Williams
7. Kyler Murray
8. Jonah Williams
9. Andre Dillard
10. Hakeem Butler
11. Dalton Risner
12. Marquise Brown
13. A. J. Brown
14. Andy Isabella
15. Devin Bush

Please don't shoot the messenger.

Link - ( New Window )
Interesting  
Tuckrule : 4/23/2019 8:34 am : link
Really goes against the grain
RE: Interesting  
ZogZerg : 4/23/2019 8:34 am : link
In comment 14398905 Tuckrule said:
Quote:
Really goes against the grain


Didn't he have Johnny Football rated really high?
Is this truly  
allstarjim : 4/23/2019 8:36 am : link
Who he believes are the top 15 players in this draft? Because if so, he's a complete tool, just trying to be a contrarian for being a contrarian's sake.
Does Jonah Williams  
Big Blue '56 : 4/23/2019 8:36 am : link
project to ORT?
RE: RE: Interesting  
Klaatu : 4/23/2019 8:39 am : link
In comment 14398906 ZogZerg said:
Quote:
In comment 14398905 Tuckrule said:


Quote:


Really goes against the grain



Didn't he have Johnny Football rated really high?


Yup.
Greedy Williams..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 4/23/2019 8:39 am : link
is the top Williams in the draft??

Ba ha ha
RE: Does Jonah Williams  
Ira : 4/23/2019 8:40 am : link
In comment 14398912 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
project to ORT?


I think he can play either tackle slot, but it would make sense, if we were to draft him, to start him out on the right side. When Solder is ready to retire, he could then move to the left.
I find Boylhart to be an excellent evaluator  
MM_in_NYC : 4/23/2019 8:41 am : link
He is one of the best out there. That said, he is horrible at quarterbacks. Truly horrible. So keep that in mind. He said Matt Barkley was the next coming and that you should "trade your mother, wife and your dog to move up in this draft to select Paxton [Lynch]", amongst others. You'd think he's self-assess and figure out why he kept missing on QBs but he hasn't. Go figure.
Obvious consensus guys (e.g. Allen)  
Jay in Toronto : 4/23/2019 8:41 am : link
missing -- but a red flag is no mention of limitations, room for improvement etc.
Q Williams is not in his top 15  
JohnB : 4/23/2019 8:42 am : link
!
Boylhart always has some big hits and some big misses.  
Ira : 4/23/2019 8:43 am : link
When we draft Hakeem Nicks, Boylhart had him as his top receiver, which turned out to be accurate.
RE: I find Boylhart to be an excellent evaluator  
FatMan in Charlotte : 4/23/2019 8:44 am : link
In comment 14398922 MM_in_NYC said:
Quote:
He is one of the best out there. That said, he is horrible at quarterbacks. Truly horrible. So keep that in mind. He said Matt Barkley was the next coming and that you should "trade your mother, wife and your dog to move up in this draft to select Paxton [Lynch]", amongst others. You'd think he's self-assess and figure out why he kept missing on QBs but he hasn't. Go figure.


Go back and look at some of his past top rated players in the draft.

He's been fairly poor at ranking them. Borderline horrendous. Not only did he have Manziel up there, he's gotten position players pegged terribly too.
This is a pretty bad list  
GFAN52 : 4/23/2019 8:46 am : link
If the ďtop 15Ē.
RE: Q Williams is not in his top 15  
GFAN52 : 4/23/2019 8:47 am : link
In comment 14398929 JohnB said:
Quote:
!


That made me laugh!
It apprears he ranks purely by production  
Ivan15 : 4/23/2019 8:48 am : link
Can be some big misses
Quinnen Williams is one of  
allstarjim : 4/23/2019 8:51 am : link
The top 2 players in this class. How anyone who is supposed to be a talented evaluator doesn't have him in the top 15 at all... it's just moronic. You're talking about a guy who consistently dominated double teams. A guy who is the best DT prospect not just this year but in several years.

I can't respect this dude. And Hakeem Butler? There are easy-to-identify holes in his game that would not have him as the top WR in this class or one of the top 15 overall.

Josh Jacobs at 4 overall? Please. Andy Isabella in the top 15? GTFO.
RE: Does Jonah Williams  
yatqb : 4/23/2019 8:54 am : link
In comment 14398912 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
project to ORT?


Not ideally, but his technique will likely allow him to play it better than Pugh did, which ain't bad.
RE: RE: I find Boylhart to be an excellent evaluator  
MM_in_NYC : 4/23/2019 8:56 am : link
In comment 14398937 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
In comment 14398922 MM_in_NYC said:


Quote:


He is one of the best out there. That said, he is horrible at quarterbacks. Truly horrible. So keep that in mind. He said Matt Barkley was the next coming and that you should "trade your mother, wife and your dog to move up in this draft to select Paxton [Lynch]", amongst others. You'd think he's self-assess and figure out why he kept missing on QBs but he hasn't. Go figure.



Go back and look at some of his past top rated players in the draft.

He's been fairly poor at ranking them. Borderline horrendous. Not only did he have Manziel up there, he's gotten position players pegged terribly too.


He certainly has his share of misses, as all evaluators do. His archives are fully available though and I think they stand up very well.
RE: RE: Does Jonah Williams  
Big Blue '56 : 4/23/2019 8:58 am : link
In comment 14398967 yatqb said:
Quote:
In comment 14398912 Big Blue '56 said:


Quote:


project to ORT?



Not ideally, but his technique will likely allow him to play it better than Pugh did, which ain't bad.


Pugh was very good, imo, when he was healthy, which was not all that often unfortunately
RE: I find Boylhart to be an excellent evaluator  
Klaatu : 4/23/2019 8:58 am : link
In comment 14398922 MM_in_NYC said:
Quote:
He is one of the best out there. That said, he is horrible at quarterbacks. Truly horrible. So keep that in mind. He said Matt Barkley was the next coming and that you should "trade your mother, wife and your dog to move up in this draft to select Paxton [Lynch]", amongst others. You'd think he's self-assess and figure out why he kept missing on QBs but he hasn't. Go figure.


This is my problem with Boylhart. This is what he said about Eli:

Quote:
Bottom Line
Are you kidding me? Eli is the best player in this draft. He is a franchise QB. There are no other QBís as ready for the NFL as this kid. There is no better player and no player that is more of a sure bet to make it as a pro in this Draft. The only reason he might not be taken as the first pick is because the team who picks first does not need a franchise QB. If you are a team that needs a franchise QB, donít be a fool. Donít try to be cute, donít think you can outsmart some other team and wait for him to drop to you. TRADE UP -- trade your Mother if you have to. Believe me, your Mother will be proud !!!!!


Nice, huh? So, what do the Giants do? They trade up to get him. So, what does Boylhart say? They got hosed, they paid too much for him. Really? Are you kidding me?

I asked him about that, a couple of times, in fact. He never replied.

So, that and the fact that he compared Bryan Kehl to Carl Banks...

Wait. Say that again?

Yeah, he compared Bryan Kehl to Carl Banks. Excuse me while I laugh my ass off. And I guess I'm not the only one who has little use for him, since his attempt at making people pay for the privilege of reading his site didn't last very long.

Bottom Line: I think he's an ass.
RE: Boylhart always has some big hits and some big misses.  
Giantz_comeback : 4/23/2019 9:14 am : link
In comment 14398932 Ira said:
Quote:
When we draft Hakeem Nicks, Boylhart had him as his top receiver, which turned out to be accurate.


His misses big but also hits big.

Q is a huge miss but his list has some very good players on it.

Both Jonah and Greedy are going to be very good.
Boylhart has..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 4/23/2019 9:16 am : link
made a living using the formula of touting 2nd and 3rd round prospects as 1st rounders.

If they miss (like they normally do), he stays silent. If they hit, he talks at length about how he identified the player as a top prospect while everyone else had him buried.

The problem is, his misses have been really bad and numerous.

Look at his rankings among his peers. Out of the post-draft comparisons of the top "experts" out there, Boylehart finished:
38th out of 46 in 2014
42nd out of 47 in 2015
44th out of 47 in 2016
37th out of 42 in 2017

For comparisons sake, Jason LaConfora finished in the top 15 every year. Some guy named Jason Boris did very well too. Mayock fluctuated wildly, being a top 5 guy two years and a bottom 10 guy two years.
The guys that match need and value the most for us  
Giantz_comeback : 4/23/2019 9:17 am : link
Assuming we sign Remmers

1.Christian Wilkins
3. Clelin Ferrell
5. Nick Bosa
6. Greedy Williams
10. Hakeem Butler
11. Dalton Risner
12. Marquise Brown
13. A. J. Brown
15. Devin Bush
RE: RE: Q Williams is not in his top 15  
Beer Man : 4/23/2019 9:25 am : link
In comment 14398947 GFAN52 said:
Quote:
In comment 14398929 JohnB said:


Quote:


!



That made me laugh!
Josh Allen is missing as well.
Contrarian  
Capt. Don : 4/23/2019 9:27 am : link
.
Hmmm...  
Dan in the Springs : 4/23/2019 9:28 am : link
I would trade up from 17 to get QW @ 16 if the draft somehow fell this way. LOL
Hakeem Butler  
ryanmkeane : 4/23/2019 9:45 am : link
at 10 is an absolute joke. You need good hands to be ranked in the first round as a receiver, let alone 10
It isn't just..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 4/23/2019 9:46 am : link
Butler.

Having 3 WR's in the top 15 of this draft is madness.
His write-ups are great though  
Peter from NH (formerly CT) : 4/23/2019 9:54 am : link
I would like to see his 5 year out record. Predicting the draft is one thing, predicting who thrive in the NFL is another. I have found him to be better than the typical draft review in accessing talent rather than in "predicting the draft". Has he made mistakes? Sure - who hasn't?
RE: His write-ups are great though  
FatMan in Charlotte : 4/23/2019 9:56 am : link
In comment 14399157 Peter from NH (formerly CT) said:
Quote:
I would like to see his 5 year out record. Predicting the draft is one thing, predicting who thrive in the NFL is another. I have found him to be better than the typical draft review in accessing talent rather than in "predicting the draft". Has he made mistakes? Sure - who hasn't?


Compared to his peers, he's been really poor:

Quote:
Look at his rankings among his peers. Out of the post-draft comparisons of the top "experts" out there, Boylehart finished:
38th out of 46 in 2014
42nd out of 47 in 2015
44th out of 47 in 2016
37th out of 42 in 2017
FMIC  
Peter from NH (formerly CT) : 4/23/2019 9:58 am : link
I think that is a measure of predicting the draft rather than predicting long-term success?
He nailed Flowers  
MM_in_NYC : 4/23/2019 10:00 am : link
Ereck Flowers OT Miami

TALENT BOARD ROUND 4

STRENGTHS
Ereck is big, long arm, long-legged offensive lineman. He has all the physical attributes you look for in an offensive tackle for the next level. He has quick feet to go along with those long arms and legs and that will serve him well at the next level. Ereck has played on both sides of the offensive line and although he has done a solid job on the left side at the college level, he might be more suited to playing on the right side at the NFL level.

CONCERNS
Right now, Ereck does not show the mental strength or the physical stamina to play a full game much less a 16 game schedule. He lacks the upper body strength to keep pass rushers off his body when pass blocking and when run blocking, he doesnít get the push needed to move a flower pot -- much less an NFL defensive lineman. His techniques are very poor and his physical stamina to play a full game without fading in the fourth quarter and committing penalties will be a big problem at the next level. Ereck is in for a big shock at the next level, but given time and a better work ethic, Ereck could become a standout offensive lineman.

BOTTOM LINE
There is something that some players coming out in the draft never get and it is the main reason why players with the physical talent donít succeed at the NFL level. The NFL is a 24/7, 365 job if you want to be successful. If youíre not working with your teammates and coaches on plays, techniques, timing, etc, then you have to work on your body. You might be able to take a month off after the season, but after that, you better get back to working 24/7 or you will be left behind and your body will not do what your mind thinks it can do. I donít believe Ereck has that work ethic with what I see in his play on the field. He hasnít worked on his body and that alone is his biggest problem. His techniques are poor and while he has those quick feet that get him into the correct position to block, he has no technique to follow through and finish. He gets tired and when he gets tired, he gets mad and commits a bunch of penalties. His favorite pass blocking techniques when he gets tired is to take both his hands and clamp down on the outside shoulders of his opponent and hold him so that a pass rush move cannot be used against him. Ladies and gentlemen, thatís called holding at the NFL level. Ereck will be overlooked because of his size and athletic talent, but for me, I donít think he plays with enough pride to be a left tackle and Iím not sure how much he will play without getting injured for his first contract. Maybe Ereck, with a little help from a cattle prod, will become better than I have suggested but right now, I think there are other offensive linemen who will be better and I would let some other team ďcoach him upĒ first!
RE: Hakeem Butler  
Giantz_comeback : 4/23/2019 10:02 am : link
In comment 14399136 ryanmkeane said:
Quote:
at 10 is an absolute joke. You need good hands to be ranked in the first round as a receiver, let alone 10


Hakeem has ridiculous upside. Ridiculous.
RE: RE: Hakeem Butler  
allstarjim : 4/23/2019 10:55 am : link
In comment 14399180 Giantz_comeback said:
Quote:
In comment 14399136 ryanmkeane said:


Quote:


at 10 is an absolute joke. You need good hands to be ranked in the first round as a receiver, let alone 10



Hakeem has ridiculous upside. Ridiculous.


I would agree with that. And it's called upside for a reason. And guys like that are 2nd and 3rd rounders, not top 15.

He's not even the top receiver, probably around the 4th best receiver prospect in this draft.
RE: Quinnen Williams is one of  
Gatorade Dunk : 4/23/2019 11:07 am : link
In comment 14398959 allstarjim said:
Quote:
The top 2 players in this class. How anyone who is supposed to be a talented evaluator doesn't have him in the top 15 at all... it's just moronic. You're talking about a guy who consistently dominated double teams. A guy who is the best DT prospect not just this year but in several years.

I can't respect this dude. And Hakeem Butler? There are easy-to-identify holes in his game that would not have him as the top WR in this class or one of the top 15 overall.

Josh Jacobs at 4 overall? Please. Andy Isabella in the top 15? GTFO.

Not only is Boylhart a hack, he's a contrarian hack, which makes him even more unbearable. And the worst part is that there are still posters, many of whom I respect a great deal, who actually consider Boylhart some sort of expert.

It does figure that he'd list 15 names on his top 10, considering he typically lists around 50 players with first round grades every year. Being incapable of using a discerning eye should be a red flag for this guy, but apparently it's not. You can be sure that someone will be sure to mention that Boylhart got X number of the top 10 correct without mentioning that he had to make a list of 15 to accomplish it.
RE: RE: Quinnen Williams is one of  
MM_in_NYC : 4/23/2019 11:50 am : link
In comment 14399341 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 14398959 allstarjim said:


Not only is Boylhart a hack, he's a contrarian hack, which makes him even more unbearable. And the worst part is that there are still posters, many of whom I respect a great deal, who actually consider Boylhart some sort of expert.

It does figure that he'd list 15 names on his top 10, considering he typically lists around 50 players with first round grades every year. Being incapable of using a discerning eye should be a red flag for this guy, but apparently it's not. You can be sure that someone will be sure to mention that Boylhart got X number of the top 10 correct without mentioning that he had to make a list of 15 to accomplish it.


I don't think that is entirely fair. I also don't think he is deliberately contrarian. He views the draft as risk management rather than simply talent acquisition.

For instance, he has taken considerable flack in this thread for his opinion on Q. His opinion is more nuanced than is represented in this thread, however, and he does in fact state in his position that Q is one of most talented players. You can disagree with his view of the risk Q brings to the table, and why B says he should be only 2nd pick, but it is flat inaccurate to say he does not see his talent.

I also do not think it is fair to say he is not discerning because he lists 40+ 1st round players. His draft philosophy/rank valuation model is not saying that all 40+ have 1st round talent grades per the traditional rank valuation model. And he routinely has players who are otherwise consensus 1st round ranked out of the first round - which is by definition indicative of discernment. What his philosophy is instead getting at is a different model for selecting players where talent is not everything and achieving an ROI on a rookie contract is more valuable than a selection with higher risk, even if it has potentially more reward.

Now of course anyone can disagree with that, and maybe they have a point, but it seems to me his philosophy is frequently criticized from a position of misunderstanding.
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