Adam Schefter on @MutCallahan says the Cardinals do not have a deal in place to trade Josh Rosen and have not spoken to the Patriots this offseason about a potential trade. They have talked to only two teams — Dolphins and Giants.
Here's hoping we go all defense in the first round and #37 for Rosen. Sign me up.
Two bidders makes a market. Arizona can hold on until after the draft if they don't like the offers. They may end up getting a pick in next year's draft. If teams are serious, they'll want to get him into camp soon after the draft.
effect value. Multiple bidders will too but those bidders all may have price drop offers once Murray is taken.
I didn't think it would get to this. I saw a late first as possible, no worse that 2nd rounder +. But I guess that may not be the case.
How does it affect value? They don't have to trade him at all. The valuation only shifts if there's a real possibility that teams can acquire Rosen for nothing at all, but that's not the case here. Besides, every single team has known all along that Rosen would only be traded because of Murray, so the difference between assuming it will happen and having it actually happen is de minimis.
Rosen's value may actually increase if the game of musical chairs leaves one or more teams that is targeting a young QB without a chair tonight. Arizona may have to accept a 2020 pick(s) instead, but I think they'll still get at least a 2nd round pick.
I think teams are waiting until they pick Murray. More leverage.
You and I want the same thing. The person who has that thing sets a deadline for selling that thing. One minute before the sale that person will get our best offers, which will be based on what we consider to be the true value. Have you ever participated in an Ebay auction?
They're not cutting Rosen regardless, so the leverage doesn't change. The value is tied to having multiple bidders, just as it has been all along.
Certainly, more bidders helps but the possibility of AZ keeping Rosen and taking a defensive player helps AZ in negotiations.
Once they take Murray, they can no longer act like keeping Rosen is an option which hurts their leverage.
Once other QBs start coming off the board it really hurts their negotiating position even more.
Yup, the real offers come in after the Cards pick Murray, Â
if they pick Murray, and then those offers improve as the 2019 QBs Haskins, Lock and Jones come off the board.
Interesting game of draft "chicken".
I'm inclined to think someone - the Pats, the Chargers, the Steelers or the Saints will pony up a late round one pick when they see that will close the deal, maybe even getting back a mid rounder from the Cards.
effect value. Multiple bidders will too but those bidders all may have price drop offers once Murray is taken.
I didn't think it would get to this. I saw a late first as possible, no worse that 2nd rounder +. But I guess that may not be the case.
How does it affect value? They don't have to trade him at all. The valuation only shifts if there's a real possibility that teams can acquire Rosen for nothing at all, but that's not the case here. Besides, every single team has known all along that Rosen would only be traded because of Murray, so the difference between assuming it will happen and having it actually happen is de minimis.
Rosen's value may actually increase if the game of musical chairs leaves one or more teams that is targeting a young QB without a chair tonight. Arizona may have to accept a 2020 pick(s) instead, but I think they'll still get at least a 2nd round pick.
They are not keeping Murray and Rosen. If someone knows you MUST get rid of an asset, the value of that asset decreases. This is day 1 stuff.
My response in the previous comment didn't take. What I intended to say was this: If you and I want to buy the same thing, and the seller sets a deadline for offers, he will get the best offer from both of us at that deadline if we're both seriously interested. That's how auctions work. Just like Ebay. If he doesn't like our offers, he can withdraw the item (Rosen).
I think teams are waiting until they pick Murray. More leverage.
They're not cutting Rosen regardless, so the leverage doesn't change. The value is tied to having multiple bidders, just as it has been all along.
Certainly, more bidders helps but the possibility of AZ keeping Rosen and taking a defensive player helps AZ in negotiations.
Once they take Murray, they can no longer act like keeping Rosen is an option which hurts their leverage.
Once other QBs start coming off the board it really hurts their negotiating position even more.
There's a major fallacy in that argument. You're acting as though they would only draft Murray if they got a suitable offer for Rosen and would therefore need to be blown away. It's the other way around. They will only trade Rosen because they want Murray instead. Since that's the context of the trade negotiations to begin with, actually selecting Murray does not change Rosen's trade value.
And the other QBs coming off the board may or may not hurt Arizona's leverage. It depends what teams pick QBs. But again, that's already being factored into the mix. If a team is targeting the QB position and hasn't traded for Rosen already, it's because they think they may have a better alternative available in the draft. If that QB gets picked before their selection, Rosen may become a more attractive option.
I don't disagree that Rosen's value may dynamically shift today. I just don't believe that it can only go down or that the timing of drafting Murray (when that's been viewed as fait accompli all along) has any meaningful effect.
effect value. Multiple bidders will too but those bidders all may have price drop offers once Murray is taken.
I didn't think it would get to this. I saw a late first as possible, no worse that 2nd rounder +. But I guess that may not be the case.
How does it affect value? They don't have to trade him at all. The valuation only shifts if there's a real possibility that teams can acquire Rosen for nothing at all, but that's not the case here. Besides, every single team has known all along that Rosen would only be traded because of Murray, so the difference between assuming it will happen and having it actually happen is de minimis.
Rosen's value may actually increase if the game of musical chairs leaves one or more teams that is targeting a young QB without a chair tonight. Arizona may have to accept a 2020 pick(s) instead, but I think they'll still get at least a 2nd round pick.
They are not keeping Murray and Rosen. If someone knows you MUST get rid of an asset, the value of that asset decreases. This is day 1 stuff.
But you're wrong. They can keep Rosen. San Diego drafted Eli and traded for Rivers and kept Brees. Philly drafted Wentz and kept Bradford (until training camp when they took advantage of a fortuitous opportunity to trade him to recoup max value).
It’s not so much the draft that hurts Rosen’s stock Â
It is who is picked. For each QB selected, that is one fewer team in the market for Rosen.
This is true - it's the musical chairs that I was referring to above. But all it really takes is one unexpected team to sit in one of the QB chairs and a new bidder who was targeting a QB tonight might enter the fray.
My response in the previous comment didn't take. What I intended to say was this: If you and I want to buy the same thing, and the seller sets a deadline for offers, he will get the best offer from both of us at that deadline if we're both seriously interested. That's how auctions work. Just like Ebay. If he doesn't like our offers, he can withdraw the item (Rosen).
Right but once they take Murray (if they do) everyone knows they have to unload him and his value drops.
Once the draft gets past the #17 pick, his value REALLY drops because then all the QB needy teams had a chance to take one in the draft have either done so OR passed on doing so and are clearly not desperate for one.
Then you are left with teams like the Chargers and Patriots who have five things going for them:
1. They know you have to unload him. Keeping him is not an option.
2. A bunch of other teams that may have been bidding on him are no longer in the market so demand is much lower than it might have been.
3. They are still in a good position at QB in the short term. No need to panic.
4. Next year is viewed as an outstanding year to pick up their future QB.
5. They know that AZ has arguably the most holes of any team in the NFL and sitting on two young 1st round QBs is a luxury that Steve Keim does not have.
I think teams are waiting until they pick Murray. More leverage.
They're not cutting Rosen regardless, so the leverage doesn't change. The value is tied to having multiple bidders, just as it has been all along.
Certainly, more bidders helps but the possibility of AZ keeping Rosen and taking a defensive player helps AZ in negotiations.
Once they take Murray, they can no longer act like keeping Rosen is an option which hurts their leverage.
Once other QBs start coming off the board it really hurts their negotiating position even more.
There's a major fallacy in that argument. You're acting as though they would only draft Murray if they got a suitable offer for Rosen and would therefore need to be blown away. It's the other way around. They will only trade Rosen because they want Murray instead. Since that's the context of the trade negotiations to begin with, actually selecting Murray does not change Rosen's trade value.
And the other QBs coming off the board may or may not hurt Arizona's leverage. It depends what teams pick QBs. But again, that's already being factored into the mix. If a team is targeting the QB position and hasn't traded for Rosen already, it's because they think they may have a better alternative available in the draft. If that QB gets picked before their selection, Rosen may become a more attractive option.
I don't disagree that Rosen's value may dynamically shift today. I just don't believe that it can only go down or that the timing of drafting Murray (when that's been viewed as fait accompli all along) has any meaningful effect.
Gatorade Dunk you are 100% correct. I don't think folks here understand leverage. The leverage of the Cardinals is affected by the number of suitors, period. I expect Rosen will be dealt today, probably to the Giants, Redskins, Chargers or Phins. But if he is not dealt I do not understand this idea that if they draft Murray they can't carry Rosen too. As if a team never carried to QBs before. By midseason they will get a 2nd round pick for Rosen, as happened with Brissette, as happened with Garropollo.
Gatorade is also correct that the Cards are trading Rosen because they like and want Murray, they are not drafting Murray contingent on a trade of Rosen.
It is who is picked. For each QB selected, that is one fewer team in the market for Rosen.
It is a two way street though; yes the teams that select a QB are now out of the bidding for Rosen, but the teams that are left without a QB no longer can negotiate from strength of "well we don't necessarily need him because we could draft a QB at some point instead"
in using the 17th pick for an ordinary prospect, Andy Dalton Jones, but we won't use the pick to trade for a guy who could easily be Peyton Manning with a better arm, Josh Rosen.
To quote my fat friend in Charlotte, how "fucking obtuse".
in using the 17th pick for an ordinary prospect, Andy Dalton Jones, but we won't use the pick to trade for a guy who could easily be Peyton Manning with a better arm, Josh Rosen.
To quote my fat friend in Charlotte, how "fucking obtuse".
To be fair, we really don't know which way they are leaning.
effect value. Multiple bidders will too but those bidders all may have price drop offers once Murray is taken.
I didn't think it would get to this. I saw a late first as possible, no worse that 2nd rounder +. But I guess that may not be the case.
How does it affect value? They don't have to trade him at all. The valuation only shifts if there's a real possibility that teams can acquire Rosen for nothing at all, but that's not the case here. Besides, every single team has known all along that Rosen would only be traded because of Murray, so the difference between assuming it will happen and having it actually happen is de minimis.
Rosen's value may actually increase if the game of musical chairs leaves one or more teams that is targeting a young QB without a chair tonight. Arizona may have to accept a 2020 pick(s) instead, but I think they'll still get at least a 2nd round pick.
I don't agree. Having both rostered heading into the season can rip that team apart.
If that were the case he would have gone #1 overall and not traded because of the system. I'm fine trading for Rosen, but I my expectations would be above average NFL starter - anything more would be unexpected, anything less would be likely.
But trying to authoritatively call out which prospect is definitively going to be better is an exercise in futility.
Rosen is likely going to be closer to Andy Dalton than Peyton, as Jones will likely be too.
If you had your choice at #17, Rosen or Jones, I have to imagine you take Rosen. And without blinking.
Neither is worth it when there are better DL or OT guys available that could actually help us improve. But, if it were a gun to my head to take a QB, I'd take Jones in a heartbeat. At least he comes to the team without a hematoma.
But then again - if we get a guy who is Andy Dalton, is that necessarily a bad thing? We'd have to have other components around us, but Dalton has played for several years and been in the playoffs several times.
It isn't what I'd want to sign up for, but having Andy Dalton is a lot better than getting Jake Locker
But then again - if we get a guy who is Andy Dalton, is that necessarily a bad thing? We'd have to have other components around us, but Dalton has played for several years and been in the playoffs several times.
It isn't what I'd want to sign up for, but having Andy Dalton is a lot better than getting Jake Locker
And Dalton was a second rounder. Taken a little high for my tastes, but a reasonable spot. And that's where Jones should be selected, at best, the second round.
Dalton is a middle of the pack NFL QB who has been reliable. But he's not this force multiplier that I prefer in a QB. Which isn't surprising because he really has no plus/plus-plus abilities.
It may surprise you to hear that I'm not much of an Eli guy, but it was clear from day one he had an NFL arm in the plus category and was going to be able to make throws on the route tree. Rosen has that ability and is a better athlete.
Keep telling yourself that they have to trade Rosen.
They don't.
hahaha...OK
NFL history is on my side here. But you just keep telling yourself that they have to trade him.
The two examples you provided were vastly different than this one.
I truly am curious of the history you are talking about. When has a team drafted top 10 QBs back to back years and kept both?
It doesnt really matter though - we can just wait and see. And if the Cardinals do keep both it wont actually shock me bc it will be consistent with the string of terrible decisions theyve made over the last few years.
effect value. Multiple bidders will too but those bidders all may have price drop offers once Murray is taken.
I didn't think it would get to this. I saw a late first as possible, no worse that 2nd rounder +. But I guess that may not be the case.
How does it affect value? They don't have to trade him at all. The valuation only shifts if there's a real possibility that teams can acquire Rosen for nothing at all, but that's not the case here. Besides, every single team has known all along that Rosen would only be traded because of Murray, so the difference between assuming it will happen and having it actually happen is de minimis.
Rosen's value may actually increase if the game of musical chairs leaves one or more teams that is targeting a young QB without a chair tonight. Arizona may have to accept a 2020 pick(s) instead, but I think they'll still get at least a 2nd round pick.
I don't agree. Having both rostered heading into the season can rip that team apart.
Like firing your HC after one year, hiring a new HC that just got fired at the collegiate level, having a GM with a serious character flag himself? Can those rip that team apart too?
I guess more importantly, do they even have a team to rip apart?
The point is, they most likely WILL trade Rosen. But they aren't going to cut him either way, so the idea that drafting Murray reduces Rosen's value (when everyone knows they'd only be trading Rosen because they want Murray anyway) is false. Rosen's value is independent of whether it's before or after they draft Murray.
not really sure what to tell you. If you think its a good idea to have both Murray and Rosen, two polar opposite QB's and top 10 picks "fighting" to start, than there's nothing really to discuss.
Everything else you mentioned already happened and the organization is trying to move on. To do that you need sound decision making and a leader on the field which should be your QB. So who's going to run that offense/locker room? Survival of the fittest?
Its a shitty way to run a franchise, regardless of how shitty its already been.
not really sure what to tell you. If you think its a good idea to have both Murray and Rosen, two polar opposite QB's and top 10 picks "fighting" to start, than there's nothing really to discuss.
Everything else you mentioned already happened and the organization is trying to move on. To do that you need sound decision making and a leader on the field which should be your QB. So who's going to run that offense/locker room? Survival of the fittest?
Its a shitty way to run a franchise, regardless of how shitty its already been.
There are plenty of teams that entered pre-season with 2 qbs. Some qb breaks a leg somewhere and suddenly there is a bid for rosen.
the teams that entered the season with 2 top 10 drafted QB's that are rookies or sophomores, that have 2 polar opposite styles, requiring the team to build one way or the other.
This isn't just some "bring 2 guys to camp and see what happens" scenario.
not really sure what to tell you. If you think its a good idea to have both Murray and Rosen, two polar opposite QB's and top 10 picks "fighting" to start, than there's nothing really to discuss.
Everything else you mentioned already happened and the organization is trying to move on. To do that you need sound decision making and a leader on the field which should be your QB. So who's going to run that offense/locker room? Survival of the fittest?
Its a shitty way to run a franchise, regardless of how shitty its already been.
WTF makes you think I said it's a good idea for them to battle it out? All I said was their leverage doesn't change. Because it doesn't. They're not cutting Rosen regardless. Whatever value he has (or doesn't) is not affected by drafting Murray.
You keep asking for an example but it's not like teams routinely draft top-10 QBs in consecutive years. Arizona's mismanagement is different from understanding basic tenets of negotiations and leverage.
and what the fuck makes you think i'm talking about cutting him? Who on earth even talked about him being cut?
If you can't understand my POV than just move on. No need to get all pissy.
Because that's how leverage works. That's the primary driving force that causes teams to take pennies on the dollar in trades - they would have to release the player anyway, or the contract is prohibitive, whatever. None of those are in play in this scenario.
This is basic stuff. I thought UConn was a decent school. Do they not offer business classes?
WTF makes you think I said it's a good idea for them to battle it out? All I said was their leverage doesn't change. Because it doesn't. They're not cutting Rosen regardless. Whatever value he has (or doesn't) is not affected by drafting Murray.
You keep asking for an example but it's not like teams routinely draft top-10 QBs in consecutive years. Arizona's mismanagement is different from understanding basic tenets of negotiations and leverage.
Drafting Murray absolutely affects Rosen's value to the Cardinals bc you cant play both of them. As long as one of them is not playing, he adds very little value to their team and actually adds drama to a franchise with a 1st year head coach.
It only adds drama if one or both of the players in the situation Â
and what the fuck makes you think i'm talking about cutting him? Who on earth even talked about him being cut?
If you can't understand my POV than just move on. No need to get all pissy.
Because that's how leverage works. That's the primary driving force that causes teams to take pennies on the dollar in trades - they would have to release the player anyway, or the contract is prohibitive, whatever. None of those are in play in this scenario.
This is basic stuff. I thought UConn was a decent school. Do they not offer business classes?
And now you are being a fucking asshole all because I disagree with you. Congrats, mission accomplished.
WTF makes you think I said it's a good idea for them to battle it out? All I said was their leverage doesn't change. Because it doesn't. They're not cutting Rosen regardless. Whatever value he has (or doesn't) is not affected by drafting Murray.
You keep asking for an example but it's not like teams routinely draft top-10 QBs in consecutive years. Arizona's mismanagement is different from understanding basic tenets of negotiations and leverage.
Drafting Murray absolutely affects Rosen's value to the Cardinals bc you cant play both of them. As long as one of them is not playing, he adds very little value to their team and actually adds drama to a franchise with a 1st year head coach.
Affecting value to their roster and affecting value in trade are two very different things. They also can't play Rosen if they're trading him.
I feel like you (and UConn) are mistaking motivation to sell with loss of leverage. Arizona certainly becomes more motivated to sell on Rosen if/when they draft Murray because Rosen serves far less purpose for them on their roster than he does as a trade chip. But his value doesn't decrease in any meaningful way simply because the only reason they're trading him is because of Murray, and that's the case before the draft, too, and has been for months.
Any reduction in Rosen's trade value as it relates to Murray has already happened. It's not pending the draft pick. Trading Rosen completely telegraph's Arizona's pick anyway, so they don't have additional leverage before they make the pick that everyone expects them to make. By virtue of entering the trade negotiations in the first place, the other team is already operating from a leverage position that is identical to that in which Murray is already on the Cardinals. It's insane to imagine that the Cardinals could conclude that Murray is their guy, but then pass on him because they're getting lowballed on Rosen offers. But that's what you're suggesting when you say that their leverage decreases when they actually do make the pick.
They're not going to just keep Rosen and pass on Murray simply because they don't like the Rosen offers; they're either drafting Murray or not because they think he's the best QB for their system or they don't. The only correlation between the two is that Murray at least gives them a plausible reason for trading Rosen that isn't entirely Rosen-related.
Keep telling yourself that they have to trade Rosen.
They don't.
hahaha...OK
It's true though. Or at least, the Cardinals don't have to quake in fear at the negotiation table if their potential trade partner says, "This is our best offer, because we know you HAVE to trade him. Victory is ours!"
For example?
I think teams are waiting until they pick Murray. More leverage.
They're not cutting Rosen regardless, so the leverage doesn't change. The value is tied to having multiple bidders, just as it has been all along.
Certainly, more bidders helps but the possibility of AZ keeping Rosen and taking a defensive player helps AZ in negotiations.
Once they take Murray, they can no longer act like keeping Rosen is an option which hurts their leverage.
Once other QBs start coming off the board it really hurts their negotiating position even more.
I didn't think it would get to this. I saw a late first as possible, no worse that 2nd rounder +. But I guess that may not be the case.
How does it affect value? They don't have to trade him at all. The valuation only shifts if there's a real possibility that teams can acquire Rosen for nothing at all, but that's not the case here. Besides, every single team has known all along that Rosen would only be traded because of Murray, so the difference between assuming it will happen and having it actually happen is de minimis.
Rosen's value may actually increase if the game of musical chairs leaves one or more teams that is targeting a young QB without a chair tonight. Arizona may have to accept a 2020 pick(s) instead, but I think they'll still get at least a 2nd round pick.
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I think teams are waiting until they pick Murray. More leverage.
You and I want the same thing. The person who has that thing sets a deadline for selling that thing. One minute before the sale that person will get our best offers, which will be based on what we consider to be the true value. Have you ever participated in an Ebay auction?
They're not cutting Rosen regardless, so the leverage doesn't change. The value is tied to having multiple bidders, just as it has been all along.
Certainly, more bidders helps but the possibility of AZ keeping Rosen and taking a defensive player helps AZ in negotiations.
Once they take Murray, they can no longer act like keeping Rosen is an option which hurts their leverage.
Once other QBs start coming off the board it really hurts their negotiating position even more.
Interesting game of draft "chicken".
I'm inclined to think someone - the Pats, the Chargers, the Steelers or the Saints will pony up a late round one pick when they see that will close the deal, maybe even getting back a mid rounder from the Cards.
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effect value. Multiple bidders will too but those bidders all may have price drop offers once Murray is taken.
I didn't think it would get to this. I saw a late first as possible, no worse that 2nd rounder +. But I guess that may not be the case.
How does it affect value? They don't have to trade him at all. The valuation only shifts if there's a real possibility that teams can acquire Rosen for nothing at all, but that's not the case here. Besides, every single team has known all along that Rosen would only be traded because of Murray, so the difference between assuming it will happen and having it actually happen is de minimis.
Rosen's value may actually increase if the game of musical chairs leaves one or more teams that is targeting a young QB without a chair tonight. Arizona may have to accept a 2020 pick(s) instead, but I think they'll still get at least a 2nd round pick.
They are not keeping Murray and Rosen. If someone knows you MUST get rid of an asset, the value of that asset decreases. This is day 1 stuff.
SD offering their 1 would be the only roadblock, unless the Giants just don’t want anything to do with Rosen
Yeah. Remember the whole Alvin Kamara trade that was completely made up by him as well?
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I think teams are waiting until they pick Murray. More leverage.
They're not cutting Rosen regardless, so the leverage doesn't change. The value is tied to having multiple bidders, just as it has been all along.
Certainly, more bidders helps but the possibility of AZ keeping Rosen and taking a defensive player helps AZ in negotiations.
Once they take Murray, they can no longer act like keeping Rosen is an option which hurts their leverage.
Once other QBs start coming off the board it really hurts their negotiating position even more.
There's a major fallacy in that argument. You're acting as though they would only draft Murray if they got a suitable offer for Rosen and would therefore need to be blown away. It's the other way around. They will only trade Rosen because they want Murray instead. Since that's the context of the trade negotiations to begin with, actually selecting Murray does not change Rosen's trade value.
And the other QBs coming off the board may or may not hurt Arizona's leverage. It depends what teams pick QBs. But again, that's already being factored into the mix. If a team is targeting the QB position and hasn't traded for Rosen already, it's because they think they may have a better alternative available in the draft. If that QB gets picked before their selection, Rosen may become a more attractive option.
I don't disagree that Rosen's value may dynamically shift today. I just don't believe that it can only go down or that the timing of drafting Murray (when that's been viewed as fait accompli all along) has any meaningful effect.
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In comment 14404047 UConn4523 said:
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effect value. Multiple bidders will too but those bidders all may have price drop offers once Murray is taken.
I didn't think it would get to this. I saw a late first as possible, no worse that 2nd rounder +. But I guess that may not be the case.
How does it affect value? They don't have to trade him at all. The valuation only shifts if there's a real possibility that teams can acquire Rosen for nothing at all, but that's not the case here. Besides, every single team has known all along that Rosen would only be traded because of Murray, so the difference between assuming it will happen and having it actually happen is de minimis.
Rosen's value may actually increase if the game of musical chairs leaves one or more teams that is targeting a young QB without a chair tonight. Arizona may have to accept a 2020 pick(s) instead, but I think they'll still get at least a 2nd round pick.
They are not keeping Murray and Rosen. If someone knows you MUST get rid of an asset, the value of that asset decreases. This is day 1 stuff.
But you're wrong. They can keep Rosen. San Diego drafted Eli and traded for Rivers and kept Brees. Philly drafted Wentz and kept Bradford (until training camp when they took advantage of a fortuitous opportunity to trade him to recoup max value).
This is true - it's the musical chairs that I was referring to above. But all it really takes is one unexpected team to sit in one of the QB chairs and a new bidder who was targeting a QB tonight might enter the fray.
Right but once they take Murray (if they do) everyone knows they have to unload him and his value drops.
Once the draft gets past the #17 pick, his value REALLY drops because then all the QB needy teams had a chance to take one in the draft have either done so OR passed on doing so and are clearly not desperate for one.
Then you are left with teams like the Chargers and Patriots who have five things going for them:
1. They know you have to unload him. Keeping him is not an option.
2. A bunch of other teams that may have been bidding on him are no longer in the market so demand is much lower than it might have been.
3. They are still in a good position at QB in the short term. No need to panic.
4. Next year is viewed as an outstanding year to pick up their future QB.
5. They know that AZ has arguably the most holes of any team in the NFL and sitting on two young 1st round QBs is a luxury that Steve Keim does not have.
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In comment 14404040 Gatorade Dunk said:
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I think teams are waiting until they pick Murray. More leverage.
They're not cutting Rosen regardless, so the leverage doesn't change. The value is tied to having multiple bidders, just as it has been all along.
Certainly, more bidders helps but the possibility of AZ keeping Rosen and taking a defensive player helps AZ in negotiations.
Once they take Murray, they can no longer act like keeping Rosen is an option which hurts their leverage.
Once other QBs start coming off the board it really hurts their negotiating position even more.
There's a major fallacy in that argument. You're acting as though they would only draft Murray if they got a suitable offer for Rosen and would therefore need to be blown away. It's the other way around. They will only trade Rosen because they want Murray instead. Since that's the context of the trade negotiations to begin with, actually selecting Murray does not change Rosen's trade value.
And the other QBs coming off the board may or may not hurt Arizona's leverage. It depends what teams pick QBs. But again, that's already being factored into the mix. If a team is targeting the QB position and hasn't traded for Rosen already, it's because they think they may have a better alternative available in the draft. If that QB gets picked before their selection, Rosen may become a more attractive option.
I don't disagree that Rosen's value may dynamically shift today. I just don't believe that it can only go down or that the timing of drafting Murray (when that's been viewed as fait accompli all along) has any meaningful effect.
Gatorade Dunk you are 100% correct. I don't think folks here understand leverage. The leverage of the Cardinals is affected by the number of suitors, period. I expect Rosen will be dealt today, probably to the Giants, Redskins, Chargers or Phins. But if he is not dealt I do not understand this idea that if they draft Murray they can't carry Rosen too. As if a team never carried to QBs before. By midseason they will get a 2nd round pick for Rosen, as happened with Brissette, as happened with Garropollo.
Gatorade is also correct that the Cards are trading Rosen because they like and want Murray, they are not drafting Murray contingent on a trade of Rosen.
They don't.
It is a two way street though; yes the teams that select a QB are now out of the bidding for Rosen, but the teams that are left without a QB no longer can negotiate from strength of "well we don't necessarily need him because we could draft a QB at some point instead"
To quote my fat friend in Charlotte, how "fucking obtuse".
To quote my fat friend in Charlotte, how "fucking obtuse".
To be fair, we really don't know which way they are leaning.
But trying to authoritatively call out which prospect is definitively going to be better is an exercise in futility.
Rosen is likely going to be closer to Andy Dalton than Peyton, as Jones will likely be too.
bw central at its finest.
They don't.
hahaha...OK
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effect value. Multiple bidders will too but those bidders all may have price drop offers once Murray is taken.
I didn't think it would get to this. I saw a late first as possible, no worse that 2nd rounder +. But I guess that may not be the case.
How does it affect value? They don't have to trade him at all. The valuation only shifts if there's a real possibility that teams can acquire Rosen for nothing at all, but that's not the case here. Besides, every single team has known all along that Rosen would only be traded because of Murray, so the difference between assuming it will happen and having it actually happen is de minimis.
Rosen's value may actually increase if the game of musical chairs leaves one or more teams that is targeting a young QB without a chair tonight. Arizona may have to accept a 2020 pick(s) instead, but I think they'll still get at least a 2nd round pick.
I don't agree. Having both rostered heading into the season can rip that team apart.
If that were the case he would have gone #1 overall and not traded because of the system. I'm fine trading for Rosen, but I my expectations would be above average NFL starter - anything more would be unexpected, anything less would be likely.
you sure did, that is just some of the hard hitting takes coming out of bw central these days.
But trying to authoritatively call out which prospect is definitively going to be better is an exercise in futility.
Rosen is likely going to be closer to Andy Dalton than Peyton, as Jones will likely be too.
If you had your choice at #17, Rosen or Jones, I have to imagine you take Rosen. And without blinking.
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prefer the term ponderous.
But trying to authoritatively call out which prospect is definitively going to be better is an exercise in futility.
Rosen is likely going to be closer to Andy Dalton than Peyton, as Jones will likely be too.
If you had your choice at #17, Rosen or Jones, I have to imagine you take Rosen. And without blinking.
Neither is worth it when there are better DL or OT guys available that could actually help us improve. But, if it were a gun to my head to take a QB, I'd take Jones in a heartbeat. At least he comes to the team without a hematoma.
But then again - if we get a guy who is Andy Dalton, is that necessarily a bad thing? We'd have to have other components around us, but Dalton has played for several years and been in the playoffs several times.
It isn't what I'd want to sign up for, but having Andy Dalton is a lot better than getting Jake Locker
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Keep telling yourself that they have to trade Rosen.
They don't.
hahaha...OK
NFL history is on my side here. But you just keep telling yourself that they have to trade him.
But then again - if we get a guy who is Andy Dalton, is that necessarily a bad thing? We'd have to have other components around us, but Dalton has played for several years and been in the playoffs several times.
It isn't what I'd want to sign up for, but having Andy Dalton is a lot better than getting Jake Locker
And Dalton was a second rounder. Taken a little high for my tastes, but a reasonable spot. And that's where Jones should be selected, at best, the second round.
Dalton is a middle of the pack NFL QB who has been reliable. But he's not this force multiplier that I prefer in a QB. Which isn't surprising because he really has no plus/plus-plus abilities.
It may surprise you to hear that I'm not much of an Eli guy, but it was clear from day one he had an NFL arm in the plus category and was going to be able to make throws on the route tree. Rosen has that ability and is a better athlete.
i think the Giants once had two #1 QB's on the roster at one time. Manning and Carr.
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In comment 14404165 Gatorade Dunk said:
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Keep telling yourself that they have to trade Rosen.
They don't.
hahaha...OK
NFL history is on my side here. But you just keep telling yourself that they have to trade him.
The two examples you provided were vastly different than this one.
I truly am curious of the history you are talking about. When has a team drafted top 10 QBs back to back years and kept both?
It doesnt really matter though - we can just wait and see. And if the Cardinals do keep both it wont actually shock me bc it will be consistent with the string of terrible decisions theyve made over the last few years.
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In comment 14404047 UConn4523 said:
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effect value. Multiple bidders will too but those bidders all may have price drop offers once Murray is taken.
I didn't think it would get to this. I saw a late first as possible, no worse that 2nd rounder +. But I guess that may not be the case.
How does it affect value? They don't have to trade him at all. The valuation only shifts if there's a real possibility that teams can acquire Rosen for nothing at all, but that's not the case here. Besides, every single team has known all along that Rosen would only be traded because of Murray, so the difference between assuming it will happen and having it actually happen is de minimis.
Rosen's value may actually increase if the game of musical chairs leaves one or more teams that is targeting a young QB without a chair tonight. Arizona may have to accept a 2020 pick(s) instead, but I think they'll still get at least a 2nd round pick.
I don't agree. Having both rostered heading into the season can rip that team apart.
Like firing your HC after one year, hiring a new HC that just got fired at the collegiate level, having a GM with a serious character flag himself? Can those rip that team apart too?
I guess more importantly, do they even have a team to rip apart?
The point is, they most likely WILL trade Rosen. But they aren't going to cut him either way, so the idea that drafting Murray reduces Rosen's value (when everyone knows they'd only be trading Rosen because they want Murray anyway) is false. Rosen's value is independent of whether it's before or after they draft Murray.
i think the Giants once had two #1 QB's on the roster at one time. Manning and Carr.
Aikman and Walsh?
Everything else you mentioned already happened and the organization is trying to move on. To do that you need sound decision making and a leader on the field which should be your QB. So who's going to run that offense/locker room? Survival of the fittest?
Its a shitty way to run a franchise, regardless of how shitty its already been.
You can have 17 bidders, if all of them are submitting shitty bids, that absolutely effects value.
Everything else you mentioned already happened and the organization is trying to move on. To do that you need sound decision making and a leader on the field which should be your QB. So who's going to run that offense/locker room? Survival of the fittest?
Its a shitty way to run a franchise, regardless of how shitty its already been.
There are plenty of teams that entered pre-season with 2 qbs. Some qb breaks a leg somewhere and suddenly there is a bid for rosen.
This isn't just some "bring 2 guys to camp and see what happens" scenario.
Everything else you mentioned already happened and the organization is trying to move on. To do that you need sound decision making and a leader on the field which should be your QB. So who's going to run that offense/locker room? Survival of the fittest?
Its a shitty way to run a franchise, regardless of how shitty its already been.
WTF makes you think I said it's a good idea for them to battle it out? All I said was their leverage doesn't change. Because it doesn't. They're not cutting Rosen regardless. Whatever value he has (or doesn't) is not affected by drafting Murray.
You keep asking for an example but it's not like teams routinely draft top-10 QBs in consecutive years. Arizona's mismanagement is different from understanding basic tenets of negotiations and leverage.
If you can't understand my POV than just move on. No need to get all pissy.
If you can't understand my POV than just move on. No need to get all pissy.
Because that's how leverage works. That's the primary driving force that causes teams to take pennies on the dollar in trades - they would have to release the player anyway, or the contract is prohibitive, whatever. None of those are in play in this scenario.
This is basic stuff. I thought UConn was a decent school. Do they not offer business classes?
WTF makes you think I said it's a good idea for them to battle it out? All I said was their leverage doesn't change. Because it doesn't. They're not cutting Rosen regardless. Whatever value he has (or doesn't) is not affected by drafting Murray.
You keep asking for an example but it's not like teams routinely draft top-10 QBs in consecutive years. Arizona's mismanagement is different from understanding basic tenets of negotiations and leverage.
Drafting Murray absolutely affects Rosen's value to the Cardinals bc you cant play both of them. As long as one of them is not playing, he adds very little value to their team and actually adds drama to a franchise with a 1st year head coach.
Assuming drama is not the same as there actually being any.
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and what the fuck makes you think i'm talking about cutting him? Who on earth even talked about him being cut?
If you can't understand my POV than just move on. No need to get all pissy.
Because that's how leverage works. That's the primary driving force that causes teams to take pennies on the dollar in trades - they would have to release the player anyway, or the contract is prohibitive, whatever. None of those are in play in this scenario.
This is basic stuff. I thought UConn was a decent school. Do they not offer business classes?
And now you are being a fucking asshole all because I disagree with you. Congrats, mission accomplished.
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WTF makes you think I said it's a good idea for them to battle it out? All I said was their leverage doesn't change. Because it doesn't. They're not cutting Rosen regardless. Whatever value he has (or doesn't) is not affected by drafting Murray.
You keep asking for an example but it's not like teams routinely draft top-10 QBs in consecutive years. Arizona's mismanagement is different from understanding basic tenets of negotiations and leverage.
Drafting Murray absolutely affects Rosen's value to the Cardinals bc you cant play both of them. As long as one of them is not playing, he adds very little value to their team and actually adds drama to a franchise with a 1st year head coach.
Affecting value to their roster and affecting value in trade are two very different things. They also can't play Rosen if they're trading him.
I feel like you (and UConn) are mistaking motivation to sell with loss of leverage. Arizona certainly becomes more motivated to sell on Rosen if/when they draft Murray because Rosen serves far less purpose for them on their roster than he does as a trade chip. But his value doesn't decrease in any meaningful way simply because the only reason they're trading him is because of Murray, and that's the case before the draft, too, and has been for months.
Any reduction in Rosen's trade value as it relates to Murray has already happened. It's not pending the draft pick. Trading Rosen completely telegraph's Arizona's pick anyway, so they don't have additional leverage before they make the pick that everyone expects them to make. By virtue of entering the trade negotiations in the first place, the other team is already operating from a leverage position that is identical to that in which Murray is already on the Cardinals. It's insane to imagine that the Cardinals could conclude that Murray is their guy, but then pass on him because they're getting lowballed on Rosen offers. But that's what you're suggesting when you say that their leverage decreases when they actually do make the pick.
They're not going to just keep Rosen and pass on Murray simply because they don't like the Rosen offers; they're either drafting Murray or not because they think he's the best QB for their system or they don't. The only correlation between the two is that Murray at least gives them a plausible reason for trading Rosen that isn't entirely Rosen-related.
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Keep telling yourself that they have to trade Rosen.
They don't.
hahaha...OK
It's true though. Or at least, the Cardinals don't have to quake in fear at the negotiation table if their potential trade partner says, "This is our best offer, because we know you HAVE to trade him. Victory is ours!"