I suggest reading this article first, and then the second one.
We definitively know a prospect’s ceiling: His college stats.
It makes sense, right? Just as we don’t expect a blue-chip running back to average 12 yards per carry in college like he perhaps did in high school, a college back who averaged seven yards per carry in college probably isn’t going to do so in the NFL. And the odds of a quarterback matching his college stats at the next level are almost null. |
College stats aren’t perfect predictors of pro performance, but they do tell us a lot about your ceiling. Why? Because you aren’t going to top your college stats in the pros.
I'll let you guys make your own opinions on it, but I highly recommend the read.
This is why I’m bullish on lock more than unusual. He’s improved every year he’s played. Same reason why I had baker #1 last year, and didn’t want anything to do with Allen/darnold
I think he's the riskiest pick at Qb. He has extremely high moments, but really low ones as well:
In these four games, he completed 65 percent of his passes at 8.6 yards per pass, with a college passer rating of 165.3.
In his seven other games last year, he completed 57 percent of his passes at 5.6 yards per pass. Passer rating: a ghastly 108.8
The first article explains it in great detail including some graphs so you can visually see what he is talking about.
2019 NFL Draft: League execs, scouts, coaches assess QB class - ( New Window )