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Two Articles on QB Prospects Ceiling in the NFL

BigBlueDownTheShore : 4/25/2019 8:56 am
I suggest reading this article first, and then the second one.
We definitively know a prospect’s ceiling: His college stats.
Quote:
It makes sense, right? Just as we don’t expect a blue-chip running back to average 12 yards per carry in college like he perhaps did in high school, a college back who averaged seven yards per carry in college probably isn’t going to do so in the NFL. And the odds of a quarterback matching his college stats at the next level are almost null.


College stats aren’t perfect predictors of pro performance, but they do tell us a lot about your ceiling. Why? Because you aren’t going to top your college stats in the pros.

I'll let you guys make your own opinions on it, but I highly recommend the read.
Ppl have studied this  
huygens20 : 4/25/2019 9:05 am : link
Among other things: qbs tend to lose on avg 3-4% on completion % from college to pros.


This is why I’m bullish on lock more than unusual. He’s improved every year he’s played. Same reason why I had baker #1 last year, and didn’t want anything to do with Allen/darnold
This is like a guy going from AAA baseball to the major leagues.  
Ivan15 : 4/25/2019 9:24 am : link
Minor league stats may look great, but if you can’t hit a major league curveball, you are screwed.
Big Blue  
Watson : 4/25/2019 9:28 am : link
Thanks for sharing. Good reads.
If you aren't going to top your college stats  
Blue The Dog : 4/25/2019 9:42 am : link
Then that doesn't bode well for Jones.
RE: If you aren't going to top your college stats  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 4/25/2019 9:50 am : link
In comment 14403702 Blue The Dog said:
Quote:
Then that doesn't bode well for Jones.


I think he's the riskiest pick at Qb. He has extremely high moments, but really low ones as well:

Quote:
Plus, Jones’ high-level moments were extraordinarily high-level. He torched a solid Temple pass defense for 30-for-41 passing and five touchdowns in the Independence Bowl in December, and the month before that he did a really impressive Lamar Jackson impression against North Carolina, throwing for 361 yards and rushing for 186 in the same damn game. He also torched Northwestern (impressive) and Pitt (less so) earlier in his junior season.

In these four games, he completed 65 percent of his passes at 8.6 yards per pass, with a college passer rating of 165.3.

In his seven other games last year, he completed 57 percent of his passes at 5.6 yards per pass. Passer rating: a ghastly 108.8
Not sure how you can completely isolate QB performance  
Peter from NH (formerly CT) : 4/25/2019 10:13 am : link
from the quality of your offensive line, receivers and opponents played. It may be OK on average for a guy on an average team, but if your team is filled with below average players the numbers don't work.
RE: Not sure how you can completely isolate QB performance  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 4/25/2019 10:19 am : link
In comment 14403861 Peter from NH (formerly CT) said:
Quote:
from the quality of your offensive line, receivers and opponents played. It may be OK on average for a guy on an average team, but if your team is filled with below average players the numbers don't work.


The first article explains it in great detail including some graphs so you can visually see what he is talking about.
If so, then this is highly concerning  
sb from NYT Forum : 4/25/2019 10:48 am : link
Quote:
In 36 college starts, Jones completed just 44 of 157 passes (28 percent) of 20-plus air yards, with 15 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, per Pro Football Focus.

2019 NFL Draft: League execs, scouts, coaches assess QB class - ( New Window )
I'd love to hear Sy's  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 4/25/2019 1:12 pm : link
opinion on this
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