NFT: Yankees MLB draft

Gunnar Henderson, a prep SS now forecast to go higher, Anthony Volpe, a SS at Delbarton (and Jack Leiter's teammate - both are committed to Vandy), and Matthew Lugo, a SS from the Carlos Beltran Academy in Puerto Rico and a Miami commit.

Leiter is the goods. There was a Yankees scout next to me and he was watching Volpe intently. Volpe hit a HR and he packed up and left after that at bat.

the knock on him, other than the cost of getting him to forego Vandy, is the size and consequent lack of power.

Rece Hinds. 6'4" 210lbs high school SS who will move to 3B. Potential 80 power and 70 arm. Some teams love him while others think his swing is too long and he won't take to 3B and will be a 1B. Strong commitment to LSU which is why he could be there at #30.

George Kirby. 6'3" 205lb prep pitcher from Elon college. Before this season he graded as having 55 control. This year though he has walked only 6 batters in 82 innings so that grade might be a 65 now. Fastball-slider-curveball pitcher who is developing a change-up. Curveball might be best pitch and it's a hammer curve. Fastball only sits in the low 90s which is why he won't get drafted in the top 15. The Yankees though love guys they know they can add velocity too. The can take a guy like Kirby and get him sitting 94-95mph. That changes him from a back end or maybe #3 to a front end guy. Very similar profile to James Kaprielian who the Yankees got sitting 95mph and hitting 99mph compared to throwing 91mph at UCLA. The downside is some of these guys like Kaprielian couldn't handle the increase in velocity and break down. But the reward is still worth it and the Yankees generally know when to move the player before the wheels completely come off.

at the MCT game too. They had Leiter pretty comfortably at 95-97. He threw a perfect game through 6 innings. He's legit. I coached with the guy who gave Leiter the MVP award for the past 12 years. We played Delbarton every year. I have never been overly impressed with Volpe as a real prospect. He's got really nice hands at SS and is really smooth, but he never beat us. Leiter, on the other hand....

In comment 14447480 Deejboy said:

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Rece Hinds. 6'4" 210lbs high school SS who will move to 3B. Potential 80 power and 70 arm. Some teams love him while others think his swing is too long and he won't take to 3B and will be a 1B. Strong commitment to LSU which is why he could be there at #30. George Kirby. 6'3" 205lb prep pitcher from Elon college. Before this season he graded as having 55 control. This year though he has walked only 6 batters in 82 innings so that grade might be a 65 now. Fastball-slider-curveball pitcher who is developing a change-up. Curveball might be best pitch and it's a hammer curve. Fastball only sits in the low 90s which is why he won't get drafted in the top 15. The Yankees though love guys they know they can add velocity too. The can take a guy like Kirby and get him sitting 94-95mph. That changes him from a back end or maybe #3 to a front end guy. Very similar profile to James Kaprielian who the Yankees got sitting 95mph and hitting 99mph compared to throwing 91mph at UCLA. The downside is some of these guys like Kaprielian couldn't handle the increase in velocity and break down. But the reward is still worth it and the Yankees generally know when to move the player before the wheels completely come off.

80 power!? Damn. Might be ok taking that risk.

on Hinds, he'd be worth the pick.

As for Kirby, Kaprielian was flashing that added velocity before they picked him. He may have ticked up a little more as a pro, but that's why he was coveted, that extra couple MPH late in his college season.

Remember that the added pick from the Gray deal adds about $2M to their draft pool- which moves them up from having one of the smallest draft pools to somewhere around middle of the pack.

I would suspect that the targets may be potential high impact guys who fall because of their asking price. Then, they probably will follow their model of drafting college seniors with untapped potential for cheap through the rest of the top 10 rounds to save cap money.

Based on the possibility that the Yanks are apparently going to sign the highest rated IFA bat in a couple years, who is drawing rave reviews, the Yanks might be tempted to add some prep bats to develop on a similar track with him.

they haven't drafted a ton of preps lately. And even last year was just two. Schmidt was a little unique, but in him and Stowers (who they coveted pre-draft and traded for) I wouldn't be surprised to see them draft a collegian with one of their first rounders or their second rounder. Greg Jones is a guy who has both ACC chops and a lot of upside, so he could be a mix of experience and untapped potential.

So my best guess would be if the draft falls as expected they would draft an upside prep like Hinds and pair him with someone who has a little bit safer ceiling, like Ethan Small, Kirby, or even Greg Jones.

upside gambles, and are using the draft for safer collegiate picks

Last year Seigler was a "safe" pick for a prep, but he's still a prep bat. Meanwhile Green and Breaux were both upside picks. The year before was Schmidt, but it was also Matt Sauer and Canaan Smith. Expect one or two high floor guys early, but they'll also gamble on a couple high ceiling preps. If Leiter's velo bump is legitimate his ceiling would be sky-high, but that would require putting the bulk of their eggs into one basket.

those guys haven't been developing, while the IFA kid pitchers have.

including Mike Axisa's at CBS Sports, have Tyler Callihan as the pick. His bat has a ton of potential - hit and power - but he doesn't have an obvious defensive position. Wouldn't hate that pick.

Phil, agree that their track record with prep arms has been pretty abysmal lately (the last one to hit the majors was, IIRC, Rookie Davis from the 2011 draft). But with IFA it's as much a feature of them making a lot of low to mid-$ signs as anything else.

cost effective at all. I general they are the priciest and riskiest objects on the menu.

As for taking a plus bat without a position, I'm fine with that, but teams seem to have animi against having a young, permanent DH. So while I'm all for it, I'm not sure a bat only guy would make it through the system.

the risk is the greatest, but the reward is also sky-high. Whether the Yankees' struggles have been misfortune or a flaw in the system is an open question though.

As for Callihan, he's been catching and that could be a possibility, but if they do view him as a catcher he's going to push two other touted prospects for reps (and a couple of IFA guys too) so that would be less than ideal.

with a link to BA's Top 500.
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with a description of Greg Jones as the fastest player that scout had ever seen live. The Yankees have valued speed lately, so even if he's not a SS going forward Jones could be an option for them early.
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16, 26, 33, 34, 56, 74, and 75 to be exact.

Mizzou OF with big tools but dicey results, especially in conference play. Big K rate too, which is troubling because that usually doesn't improve much in pro ball. He reminds me a lot of Jeren Kendall a few years ago.
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In comment 14454460 Dunedin81 said:

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Mizzou OF with big tools but dicey results, especially in conference play. Big K rate too, which is troubling because that usually doesn't improve much in pro ball. He reminds me a lot of Jeren Kendall a few years ago. Link - ( New Window )

I wonder if the Yanks are going to choose a lower production guy with the first overall pick and save money for later picks? With that supplemental round pick, they may be able to gamble a bit.

which would be fine.

Misner has huge tools and would be a worthwhile gamble, but it is a gamble.

Was reading some encouraging stuff on Stowers the other day - sounds like he's playing pretty well in Charleston. Some real base stealing prowess. 12 in 36 games. SSS, but it's 50+ steal pace.

In comment 14454755 arcarsenal said:

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Was reading some encouraging stuff on Stowers the other day - sounds like he's playing pretty well in Charleston. Some real base stealing prowess. 12 in 36 games. SSS, but it's 50+ steal pace.

He's hit 4 HRs in 10 days (though three were in a bandbox).

We have a solid track record with Panamanian pitchers, so we should definitely draft him.

let the mocks hit a fever pitch.

Matthew Lugo to the Yankees. A Puerto Rican SS, toolsy but raw, also the nephew of Carlos Beltran.
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because I'm a homer and even in a down year for the program I can find something to like.

Fangraphs ranks Virginia RHP Noah Murdock #92 on their big board. All projection as the results have been bad, by and large, but he's 6'8" and generates a lot of ground balls. That's a profile NYY has liked the last few years.

DES Tanner Morris is probably a 2B going forward, but he has put together an impressive .353/.460/.521 slash this year, a career 71:66 BB:K. Bat comp is Nick Solak (almost identical BB:K, albeit Solak in 3 years and Morris in 2), though Morris doesn't steal bases

this is a "bat heavy" draft, and not a good one for pitching. Ironically, that might benefit the Yanks.

The Yanks already are having a tough time getting all the pitchers they want to use on their full season rosters. However, they are woefully thin at a number of positions- and at several spots, they are basically running organizational guys out there. Look at some of the awful lineups Tampa high A has used.

I suspect that the Yanks could target a number of college or juco bats that could play full-season ball next spring, and then work through the IFA guys at short season ball next year.

I think that next Tuesday will be very interesting.

Kameron Misner, Drey Jamison, Rece Hinds in the first two rounds.
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is that this was his first full season back from TJS, which could explain his command problems. He does have some promise if he could regain his command.

a fair amount of good prep talent, in particular. Where it is thin is in college starters; Lodolo, Zack Thompson, and Alex Manoah are solid starters but there is no Casey Mize or Kyle Wright in this draft, not even close.

with 30 and 38. Jameson is interesting in that he's undersized but he has a huge K rate north of 14/9 playing for Ball State and is said to have three potential plus pitches.

the last little bits of info should show up on Monday, but we're low enough in the first round that projecting our pick is going to be mostly speculation.

Saw earlier that Deivi was on the BA hot sheet. He's crushing AA so far. Just a hair under 16 k/9 (!) - tops in the minors amongst qualifiers, I believe.

I think we've definitely got something exciting there.

trying to line up financials and manage a draft pool.
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RHSP Isaiah Campbell of Arkansas is a little old for the class, having redshirted as a soph bc of bone spurs. 97:15 over 90 IP this year with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP, he is a 3-pitch pitcher who sits 92-95 with a couple of quality breaking options and the ability to locate in all four quadrants. Big frame too, so

Shades of Trevor Stephan, whom NYY drafted in the 3rd round after a single standout season at Arkansas. Similar stature, similar numbers, description on the stuff isn't far off either.

this is Fangraphs explaining the decision-making process of certain teams.
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In comment 14458766 Dunedin81 said:

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RHSP Isaiah Campbell of Arkansas is a little old for the class, having redshirted as a soph bc of bone spurs. 97:15 over 90 IP this year with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP, he is a 3-pitch pitcher who sits 92-95 with a couple of quality breaking options and the ability to locate in all four quadrants. Big frame too, so Shades of Trevor Stephan, whom NYY drafted in the 3rd round after a single standout season at Arkansas. Similar stature, similar numbers, description on the stuff isn't far off either.

Does he project as a starter or backend reliever?

usually means a starter.

Stephan has been bad this year. At this point, I have little to no confidence in the Yankees identifying prep talent. Looking at their top 30 prospect list on MLB site is not for the faint of heart. All the ones with promise are IFA’s.

In comment 14459280 section125 said:

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In comment 14458766 Dunedin81 said: Quote: RHSP Isaiah Campbell of Arkansas is a little old for the class, having redshirted as a soph bc of bone spurs. 97:15 over 90 IP this year with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP, he is a 3-pitch pitcher who sits 92-95 with a couple of quality breaking options and the ability to locate in all four quadrants. Big frame too, so Shades of Trevor Stephan, whom NYY drafted in the 3rd round after a single standout season at Arkansas. Similar stature, similar numbers, description on the stuff isn't far off either. Does he project as a starter or backend reliever?

Upside is probably a #3 starter.

In comment 14459291 Jim in Hoboken said:

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Stephan has been bad this year. At this point, I have little to no confidence in the Yankees identifying prep talent. Looking at their top 30 prospect list on MLB site is not for the faint of heart. All the ones with promise are IFA’s.

They haven't really drafted and signed preps, maybe 4-5 a draft (a lot of which are just flat-out lotto tickets - Sincere Smith, Alex Guerrero, Terrence Robertson). Stephan has been bad so far this year, but he's also averaging better than 14 K/9. The talent is there. They've clearly had more success with IFA of late, but they've also had an above average success rate developing pitching and the returns on hitting this year are the best they've been in several seasons, apparently the product of a new hitting coordinator for the farm.

In comment 14459291 Jim in Hoboken said:

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Stephan has been bad this year. At this point, I have little to no confidence in the Yankees identifying prep talent. Looking at their top 30 prospect list on MLB site is not for the faint of heart. All the ones with promise are IFA’s.

I think that this is looking at the big picture the wrong way. Look how much minor league talent graduated to NY in the past 2-3 years. Just an off-the-top-of-head list: Torres, Andujar, Frazier, Estrada, German (even though he was in 7 games in 2017), Loaisiga, Tarpley, Montgomery and Adams.

Its hard to maintain quality at the upper levels when you bring so many to the majors in a short period of time.

Add in the inevitable injuries (Florial, Nelson, King) and there is no question the upper levels have been decimated.

Yet somehow, the Yanks found enough bodies in AAA to not only keep pace, but somehow overachieve while the stars have been injured. At the end of the day, isn't that more important than someone's top 30 list?

I don't think Jim is expressly saying the Top 30 is terrible, I think he's saying it is devoid of draftees - especially prep draftees. And in some ways he isn't wrong. But our drafts have given us contributing major leaguers (Monty, Wade, Harvey, Adams, Cortes) and, more importantly, they've given us the trade fodder to go get other necessary pieces or to keep the talent train moving via IFA $. Murphy, Greene, Widener, Fowler, Kaprielian, Rutherford - for better or for worse all did what they were supposed to do in developing trade value and bringing back returns.

the 1B and potential OF from UCLA. I really hope we don't go in that direction. He has some power potential in his bat, but he has an awful lot of swing and miss and he doesn't walk all that much.