Apparently James is going to loose tonight. Hip was talking about it this morning onnthe Boomer and Gio show that he stumbled upon it on Twitter it something.
However, I’m pretty sure they tape multiple shows a day, so it might not be tonight or even tomorrow for that matter.
Say you have $9,000 and your opponent has $10,000. To avoid getting beat the leader has to bet $8,001. If you're in second a small bet gets you the win in two of the four possible scenarios. If you're right and your opponent is wrong, you win. If you're both right, you lose. If your opponent is right and you're wrong, you lose. If you're both wrong, and you bet small you will win as your opponent is down to $1,999 and since you made a small bet you have more.
James, being a professional gambler would certainly realize this, even though most contestants apparently don't.
Game theory has the best strategy betting small because it gives you the best chance of winning, especially if the category sounds challenging. If both players get it right, you have to assume if it isn't a runaway, that the leader is going to be $1 more than the maximum James can finish at, so James loses anyway. But if both players get it wrong, James likely wins.
Game theory has the best strategy betting small because it gives you the best chance of winning, especially if the category sounds challenging. If both players get it right, you have to assume if it isn't a runaway, that the leader is going to be $1 more than the maximum James can finish at, so James loses anyway. But if both players get it wrong, James likely wins.
Yeah I understand it now...sucks he lost and what's worse is we all know about it beforehand.
Quote:
myquealer sums it up very well.
Game theory has the best strategy betting small because it gives you the best chance of winning, especially if the category sounds challenging. If both players get it right, you have to assume if it isn't a runaway, that the leader is going to be $1 more than the maximum James can finish at, so James loses anyway. But if both players get it wrong, James likely wins.
Yeah I understand it now...sucks he lost and what's worse is we all know about it beforehand.
I really don't agree with that strategy. Yes it is correct if this is your first playing the game. Of course you want to continue on, but for James why would he give one F.
He's always been a go big or go home kind of guy. Why not go big in this case?
Don't forget that he often had a runaway lead when the Final Jeopardy round was played, giving him the freedom to bet big and still be safe.
In this case, a smaller wager theoretically improved his chance of winning and so he followed that strategy.
So how much he bet is completely irrelevant.
He has been incredibly lucky with true daily doubles... my guess is he either didn't get to play any daily doubles or he lost a significant amount in one of them.
I won't watch tonight. I don't want to reward Jeopardy for leaking it to boost ratings tonight and get one last big viewership win out of James...if that's what happened.
So how much he bet is completely irrelevant.
He has been incredibly lucky with true daily doubles... my guess is he either didn't get to play any daily doubles or he lost a significant amount in one of them.
I won't watch tonight. I don't want to reward Jeopardy for leaking it to boost ratings tonight and get one last big viewership win out of James...if that's what happened.
It's correct, i saw the leaked clip, and its tonights episode
Now this is a quality post. Well done sir.
The signs were all there, not his fault if you're too dumb to read the tea leaves.
That the New York Post wrote an article with the news is shameful. Then again, it's the NY Post and they've never had any shame, so I'm not surprised.
Quote:
there was no way he could win unless the other person got Final Jeopardy wrong...
So how much he bet is completely irrelevant.
He has been incredibly lucky with true daily doubles... my guess is he either didn't get to play any daily doubles or he lost a significant amount in one of them.
I won't watch tonight. I don't want to reward Jeopardy for leaking it to boost ratings tonight and get one last big viewership win out of James...if that's what happened.
It's correct, i saw the leaked clip, and its tonights episode
Right...so then why in the world is anyone debating his bid strategy for Final Jeopardy??
There was no amount he could have bid that would have allowed him to win unless she got the answer wrong. Completely inconsequential.
That the New York Post wrote an article with the news is shameful. Then again, it's the NY Post and they've never had any shame, so I'm not surprised.
Yeah I said that a couple posts up.. last gasp to get a boost in viewership for tonight's show and then Jeopardy goes back to its normal ratings.
I won't watch tonight. I don't want to reward Jeopardy for leaking it to boost ratings tonight and get one last big viewership win out of James...if that's what happened.
Unless you’re a Nielsen family whether you watch or not makes no difference.
However, I didn't quite understand his conservative Final Jeopardy bet.
However, I didn't quite understand his conservative Final Jeopardy bet.
He had to ensure that the 3rd place player couldn't pass him. He knew that the first place player would bet $1 dollar more than his maximum bet so all he had to do is box out the 3rd place player and hope the leader going into Final Jeopardy lost. Nothing fishy at all about it
It creates an interesting game theory problem. His bet was reasonable, but could have been predicted. And if she'd predicted it, she could have bet $1800, and locked in victory as long as she and James were both right or both wrong. As it is, she'd have lost if she was wrong. Of course, it would have been truly awful if she did that, but James bet more aggressively and she lost despite getting final jeopardy right. That'd be pretty hard to live with.
Returning champions have a big advantage over their opponents in that they have experience playing the game. The biggest factor is working the clicker, but just developing a general comfort in being on stage and playing the game is big too. This gives a talented champion the opportunity to make a run of wins against inexperienced players.
In a tournament of champions setting that advantage doesn’t exist.
I realize I sound like a dick but man, people really don't think.
Quote:
if he wins the tournament of champions. Remarkably, Ken Jennings did not win the tournament of champions after he won 74 in a row. He finished 2nd in the final game played over 2 nights
Returning champions have a big advantage over their opponents in that they have experience playing the game. The biggest factor is working the clicker, but just developing a general comfort in being on stage and playing the game is big too. This gives a talented champion the opportunity to make a run of wins against inexperienced players.
In a tournament of champions setting that advantage doesn’t exist.
This is true but they also have a disadvantage of possibly playing 5 games in a row in one day of taping. By the fifth game, somebody's brain might be mush
I realize I sound like a dick but man, people really don't think.
He could have crushed the record today. That literally could have been the spoiler.
Blame Jeopardy though since they leaked the video to make sure they got the ratings.
Blame Jeopardy though since they leaked the video to make sure they got the ratings.
Perhaps. Or blame an employee at one of the hundreds of affiliate stations who received the recorded program on Friday. There are thousands of people who had the opportunity to leak this.
I would like to see him up against that guy Brad though. That would be interesting. I don't think Brad ever lost. Was on when they had the 5 day limit and never lost any tournament he was part of since.
His first pick was a Daily Double and he had no money to bet. She got both of the Daily Doubles in Double Jeopardy. She only bet 3K on the first, and 7 on the second one I believe. That's why she ended up winning, she got those Daily Doubles and got them right.
I would like to see him up against that guy Brad though. That would be interesting. I don't think Brad ever lost. Was on when they had the 5 day limit and never lost any tournament he was part of since.
I read up on old Ken Jennings a bit yesterday. He said that timing is crucial when playing the game. The show went out of their way to change the pace of the opening to the show, like not announcing his total winnings, and implemented a more efficient buzzer system to eventually knock Ken out. It was very interesting.
Quote:
Supposedly he went 25 for 25, while the winner went 22 for 22. I guess he didn’t grab as many DD’s like he usually did.
His first pick was a Daily Double and he had no money to bet. She got both of the Daily Doubles in Double Jeopardy. She only bet 3K on the first, and 7 on the second one I believe. That's why she ended up winning, she got those Daily Doubles and got them right.
She did a true Daily Double on the first one - which gave her the lead. It was only a $800 question. The second Daily Double was a $2000 and she had the lead and bet small - might have been the $3K referenced above. And I think at the end of Double Jeopardy, she was winning by $2K
Quote:
The last place guy was actually enough of a nuisance that neither of the top 2 finishers could open up any distance.
However, I didn't quite understand his conservative Final Jeopardy bet.
He had to ensure that the 3rd place player couldn't pass him. He knew that the first place player would bet $1 dollar more than his maximum bet so all he had to do is box out the 3rd place player and hope the leader going into Final Jeopardy lost. Nothing fishy at all about it
This. Exactly this.
All he could control was the person behind him which mattered in this case. He could've dumped all of his money into the bid but it wouldn't matter because he expected the leader to box HIM out.
Which she did.
At that point, you just hope she's wrong. She wasn't.
I doubt anyone would ever do that, but if you assume James' would follow the book on game theory in that spot, you could really exploit that if you had the guts and were really confident in what he'd wager.
I doubt anyone would ever do that, but if you assume James' would follow the book on game theory in that spot, you could really exploit that if you had the guts and were really confident in what he'd wager.
Of course, while James is maybe the best player ever, most other jeopardy contestants are smart people who are otherwise really bad at wagering and game theory. You'd never want to try such a play against the typical opponent. Most people in James spot don't even think and best close to all-in there.
If the topic was "Famous Cricketeers", maybe she'd have employed a different strategy, maybe not.
When Emma bet only $3000 in double jeopardy, I'm pretty sure she was up 10,400 to 7,800. It was a good opportunity to pad her lead but keep her right there with James had she gotten it wrong.
She also discusses how she would watch Jeopardy at home with a grid marking off what she got wrong and what she got right so that she developed an understanding of her success rates at various rows of questions which she used to inform her wagering strategy.
https://www.vulture.com/2019/06/jeopardy-emma-boettcher-james-holzhauer-defeat-interview.html - ( New Window )
72 in a row far more impressive in my book.
72 in a row far more impressive in my book.
But he won essentially the same amount of money.
Jennings also hasn't faired too great (not bad by any means to be fair) in some champions tournaments that he's been in. We'll see how James does in these.
Ken Jennings only had 14 games that were a runaway.