took a pay cut to stay with the Isles. We don't have to protect him with the expansion draft either.
This makes me think Lou is going to roll the dice if Lee won't agree to the deal Lou wants. With the Isles D looking set for the long term, throwing a monster 12M AAV offer to Panarin might be something we try.
for 2017-2018 (and before) Eberle, but not so much for 2018-2019 Eberle.
IOW for a 25 goal, 55-65 pt guy that's a decent contract, but if he plays like last year eh, not a big fan.
Probably wasn't so much taking less IMO as the disappointing 2018-2019 season depressed his value.
I wouldn't call it a disappointing season, per say.
Trotz came in a put a more defensive system in place and the offensive numbers took a hit all around. The last few months, he started putting up numbers again and he did really well in the playoffs.
The question now is, which is the Eberle they'll get moving forward
for 2017-2018 (and before) Eberle, but not so much for 2018-2019 Eberle.
IOW for a 25 goal, 55-65 pt guy that's a decent contract, but if he plays like last year eh, not a big fan.
Probably wasn't so much taking less IMO as the disappointing 2018-2019 season depressed his value.
He was incredibly solid in his own zone and had an outlier low year in shooting pct. He also played on lower defensive oriented lines for a significant portion of the year which affected his assists. His chemistry and production with Barzal (which includes 9pts in 8 playoff games playing with Barzal) was really good.
Given the ridiculous contracts guys like Skinner got fueled on a one year high outlier in shooting pct, I really doubt the Islanders could upgrade replace Eberle for less than $5.5M.
I guess I do agree that if his traditional stats (g and a) were at his career norm, he'd probably have gotten more from NYI (or on the open market). So if that was your point, I'm right on board.
I guess my post was more making a case for why he isn't a diminished player despite the lower traditional stats in 2018-2019.
There's a possibility that his diminished statistics last year might really work out in the Islanders favor going forward. Also, I think it's very likely (>90%) that he would've gotten more from at least one team in UFA given the current market.
I thought the only way he'd resign here was if he was willing to take a Perron type deal. The AAV is ok, but 5 years is 1 year too long IMO.
Think this means Lee is a goner too, which is unfortunate but that likely means his market is going to place that's going to be regrettable really quickly. Anything over $7m AAV is just not really worth it.
If BOB + Panarin are really a package deal, the Isles are one of the few teams that can afford both comfortably. I love Lehner, but if the former option is in any way a possibility you have to take a swing.
If BOB + Panarin are really a package deal, the Isles are one of the few teams that can afford both comfortably. I love Lehner, but if the former option is in any way a possibility you have to take a swing.
Is it really worth spending that much money and term on a goaltender when you have Greiss signed cheap next year (who had a better year than Bobo) and with Sorokin being able to come over after next year?
IMO, it really depends on what Lou's intelligence is regarding Sorokin. If he is >80% confident Sorokin is coming over, I'm more than fine rolling with Greiss and another 1-year stopgap (hoping Korn can do his magic again) and using the rest of the cap space to load up on scoring forwards.
I guess I do agree that if his traditional stats (g and a) were at his career norm, he'd probably have gotten more from NYI (or on the open market). So if that was your point, I'm right on board.
I guess my post was more making a case for why he isn't a diminished player despite the lower traditional stats in 2018-2019.
There's a possibility that his diminished statistics last year might really work out in the Islanders favor going forward. Also, I think it's very likely (>90%) that he would've gotten more from at least one team in UFA given the current market.
He probably could have gotten more on open market. Projections I'd seen ranged anywhere from $6M per for 7 years to less than that but more than 5 years @5.5.
I just think teams have a hard time putting value on a "played really well in his own end" guy....while his production dropped.
Maybe it's system, linemates, who knows, you guys all watch him more than me, but I'm less surprised at 5 years 5.5 than I would have been with 7 years @6M per like the projections had.
so call it a win for the Islanders, but for $5.5M I'd hope for more than plays well in his own end and 37 pts. I think you can buy that production cheaper.
And if Eberle puts up 65 pts while playing well in his own end, then it's a bigger win IMO.
if you can add Panarin, Bobo is still an elite goaltender and might do even better under Korn/Trotz. You could then trade Sorokin once he commits to coming over for another asset.
Is it really worth spending that much money and term on a goaltender when you have Greiss signed cheap next year (who had a better year than Bobo) and with Sorokin being able to come over after next year?
IMO, it really depends on what Lou's intelligence is regarding Sorokin. If he is >80% confident Sorokin is coming over, I'm more than fine rolling with Greiss and another 1-year stopgap (hoping Korn can do his magic again) and using the rest of the cap space to load up on scoring forwards.
a) big difference in talent level between BOB and Greiss. Islanders team D was insane this year, they had 2 goalies in the Vezina, not going to happen every year. Lehner has only started 50 games twice in his career. BOB has started 60+ like 3 or 4 years in a row as a vezina candidate and all star.
b) if you are getting Panarin, a legitimately elite winger at a position of need at the beginning of his prime, you can accept giving a goalie a bigger chunk of the cap than ideal.
Also Sorokin is still an unknown. He's not coming over until next year anyway and it's unlikely he's a day 1 starter. So if you sign Lehner or BOB to a 4 or 5 year deal, what to do with him is not really a worry until year 3 or 4.
the big question w/ Eberle is if they're gonna put him w Barzal again Â
like they did in the playoffs. He's had great chemistry with Barzal but they split them up at the beginning of the year because neither was that great in their own zone. Obviously in the playoffs that changed. If they stick together he could return to being a 50-60 point F and this will look like a good deal.
Oh please pal. Look at the money other people get or have got.
In comment 14472091 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
for 2017-2018 (and before) Eberle, but not so much for 2018-2019 Eberle.
IOW for a 25 goal, 55-65 pt guy that's a decent contract, but if he plays like last year eh, not a big fan.
Probably wasn't so much taking less IMO as the disappointing 2018-2019 season depressed his value.
Who specifically? that plays wing?
Because if you're comparing a Skinner overpay to a an Eberle contract, that's not close to relevant for a guy who plays a different position and is two years younger.
No idea why Islanders fans are so thin-skinned about everything and take it personally. I'm one person with one opinion.
I agree with your take PJ. I think what we saw with Eberle and Barzal reunited at the end of the year is more the player we can expect to see going forward. I expect that is what Lou and Barry saw which made them want to bring him back.
But if he puts up 37 points again in a full season? Yeah, that is too much money.
I agree with your take PJ. I think what we saw with Eberle and Barzal reunited at the end of the year is more the player we can expect to see going forward. I expect that is what Lou and Barry saw which made them want to bring him back.
But if he puts up 37 points again in a full season? Yeah, that is too much money.
Exactly. Eberle is a guy who can bury the puck if he has someone setting him, but that someone was not Brock Nelson. If they are confident putting him with Barzal going forward we know that can be 2/3's of one of the better lines in hockey as it was a couple years ago, though they need to retain the defensive responsibility they played with towards the end of last year.
Losing Lee would suck if it happens, but I do think whatever contract he gets is going to be viewed very close to the way the Frans Nielsen/Kyle Okposo contracts are 3 years later. I hope they can get him back on something under 5x$8m, but if not I will not blame them for passing.
I agree with your take PJ. I think what we saw with Eberle and Barzal reunited at the end of the year is more the player we can expect to see going forward. I expect that is what Lou and Barry saw which made them want to bring him back.
But if he puts up 37 points again in a full season? Yeah, that is too much money.
Exactly. Eberle is a guy who can bury the puck if he has someone setting him, but that someone was not Brock Nelson. If they are confident putting him with Barzal going forward we know that can be 2/3's of one of the better lines in hockey as it was a couple years ago, though they need to retain the defensive responsibility they played with towards the end of last year.
Losing Lee would suck if it happens, but I do think whatever contract he gets is going to be viewed very close to the way the Frans Nielsen/Kyle Okposo contracts are 3 years later. I hope they can get him back on something under 5x$8m, but if not I will not blame them for passing.
Agree with this 100% and the first part is all my point was.
Mike in Ohio summed it up nicely
Pretty much everything that could have been said has been Â
Gotta love the deal. Really. He single-handedly won the Penguins series (in terms of offensive production) and was our best player the final six weeks of the season, too. His numbers are misleading. Couldn't stay healthy and couldn't perform when he was, but he finally found his gear late. And I think that guy at the end is not only the guy the Islanders want, but is the guy they're going to get.
Bottom line is he would've gotten more on the market and is usually a guy who'll give you about 60 points in a healthy season. If he's a 2nd line winger and we can get a true first line winger, it makes the deal even better.
honestly I'm surprised Eberle got as much as he did off a 37 pt year Â
I'd guess that means this market is going to be pretty hot. I would have pegged him closer to 4 years 20-22m, which is I guess the same AAV just 1 less year.
A lot of interesting directions for the Islanders to go but the team who seemingly is the best fit for them in terms of a trade is FL. I think they are the top contender for Panarin (& BOB) but they don't have enough room for both without making a deal. They need defense though and that's what we have to sell - whether it's Leddy, Pelech, or Mayfield - who I'd move in that order.
Hoffman only has 1 year left at a similar AAV as Leddy, but I'd want a conditional pick (2020 2nd?) attached to whether or not he resigns here since Leddy has 3 years left.
For the younger guys it would probably take a bigger deal since Mayfield's contract is such a steal. Maybe something like Mayfield + Beauvillier+ good prospect (Wilde?) for Huberdeau or Trochek?
Obviously best case would just be throwing a ton of money at Panarin and then trading Leddy to save a little money for Lee (or his replacement).
I do suspect some of these teams bumping up against the cap and light on D are going to be willing to give up more than people realize for Mayfield's insane contract (4 years @ $1.45m). Even with our RD full and Dobson on the way I'd hate to deal him. He was our best PK D by a mile and is a rock solid #3/4 D who is not only a physical presence but chips in 20+ points. Only 27 and seems to get better every year.
Not sure what, if anything, this means for Lee now
This makes me think Lou is going to roll the dice if Lee won't agree to the deal Lou wants. With the Isles D looking set for the long term, throwing a monster 12M AAV offer to Panarin might be something we try.
IOW for a 25 goal, 55-65 pt guy that's a decent contract, but if he plays like last year eh, not a big fan.
Probably wasn't so much taking less IMO as the disappointing 2018-2019 season depressed his value.
IOW for a 25 goal, 55-65 pt guy that's a decent contract, but if he plays like last year eh, not a big fan.
Probably wasn't so much taking less IMO as the disappointing 2018-2019 season depressed his value.
I wouldn't call it a disappointing season, per say.
Trotz came in a put a more defensive system in place and the offensive numbers took a hit all around. The last few months, he started putting up numbers again and he did really well in the playoffs.
The question now is, which is the Eberle they'll get moving forward
IOW for a 25 goal, 55-65 pt guy that's a decent contract, but if he plays like last year eh, not a big fan.
Probably wasn't so much taking less IMO as the disappointing 2018-2019 season depressed his value.
He was incredibly solid in his own zone and had an outlier low year in shooting pct. He also played on lower defensive oriented lines for a significant portion of the year which affected his assists. His chemistry and production with Barzal (which includes 9pts in 8 playoff games playing with Barzal) was really good.
Given the ridiculous contracts guys like Skinner got fueled on a one year high outlier in shooting pct, I really doubt the Islanders could upgrade replace Eberle for less than $5.5M.
I guess my post was more making a case for why he isn't a diminished player despite the lower traditional stats in 2018-2019.
There's a possibility that his diminished statistics last year might really work out in the Islanders favor going forward. Also, I think it's very likely (>90%) that he would've gotten more from at least one team in UFA given the current market.
Think this means Lee is a goner too, which is unfortunate but that likely means his market is going to place that's going to be regrettable really quickly. Anything over $7m AAV is just not really worth it.
If BOB + Panarin are really a package deal, the Isles are one of the few teams that can afford both comfortably. I love Lehner, but if the former option is in any way a possibility you have to take a swing.
Quote:
The f’ing goaltender already!
If BOB + Panarin are really a package deal, the Isles are one of the few teams that can afford both comfortably. I love Lehner, but if the former option is in any way a possibility you have to take a swing.
Is it really worth spending that much money and term on a goaltender when you have Greiss signed cheap next year (who had a better year than Bobo) and with Sorokin being able to come over after next year?
IMO, it really depends on what Lou's intelligence is regarding Sorokin. If he is >80% confident Sorokin is coming over, I'm more than fine rolling with Greiss and another 1-year stopgap (hoping Korn can do his magic again) and using the rest of the cap space to load up on scoring forwards.
I guess my post was more making a case for why he isn't a diminished player despite the lower traditional stats in 2018-2019.
There's a possibility that his diminished statistics last year might really work out in the Islanders favor going forward. Also, I think it's very likely (>90%) that he would've gotten more from at least one team in UFA given the current market.
He probably could have gotten more on open market. Projections I'd seen ranged anywhere from $6M per for 7 years to less than that but more than 5 years @5.5.
I just think teams have a hard time putting value on a "played really well in his own end" guy....while his production dropped.
Maybe it's system, linemates, who knows, you guys all watch him more than me, but I'm less surprised at 5 years 5.5 than I would have been with 7 years @6M per like the projections had.
so call it a win for the Islanders, but for $5.5M I'd hope for more than plays well in his own end and 37 pts. I think you can buy that production cheaper.
And if Eberle puts up 65 pts while playing well in his own end, then it's a bigger win IMO.
Is it really worth spending that much money and term on a goaltender when you have Greiss signed cheap next year (who had a better year than Bobo) and with Sorokin being able to come over after next year?
IMO, it really depends on what Lou's intelligence is regarding Sorokin. If he is >80% confident Sorokin is coming over, I'm more than fine rolling with Greiss and another 1-year stopgap (hoping Korn can do his magic again) and using the rest of the cap space to load up on scoring forwards.
a) big difference in talent level between BOB and Greiss. Islanders team D was insane this year, they had 2 goalies in the Vezina, not going to happen every year. Lehner has only started 50 games twice in his career. BOB has started 60+ like 3 or 4 years in a row as a vezina candidate and all star.
b) if you are getting Panarin, a legitimately elite winger at a position of need at the beginning of his prime, you can accept giving a goalie a bigger chunk of the cap than ideal.
Also Sorokin is still an unknown. He's not coming over until next year anyway and it's unlikely he's a day 1 starter. So if you sign Lehner or BOB to a 4 or 5 year deal, what to do with him is not really a worry until year 3 or 4.
Plus, you have a trotz system with Mitch Korn the goalie whisperer.
Set a firm number and if Lehner doesn't bite move on. Sign a 1b and wait for Sorokin.
Once they were reunited the line was money.
I expect a bounce back.
If not, the contract is very movable. moreso as the cap increases over coming years.
https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/1139548973746835456/photo/1 - ( New Window )
Oh please pal. Look at the money other people get or have got.
In comment 14472091 pjcas18 said:
IOW for a 25 goal, 55-65 pt guy that's a decent contract, but if he plays like last year eh, not a big fan.
Probably wasn't so much taking less IMO as the disappointing 2018-2019 season depressed his value.
In comment 14472091 pjcas18 said:
IOW for a 25 goal, 55-65 pt guy that's a decent contract, but if he plays like last year eh, not a big fan.
Probably wasn't so much taking less IMO as the disappointing 2018-2019 season depressed his value.
Oh please pal. Look at the money other people get or have got.
In comment 14472091 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
for 2017-2018 (and before) Eberle, but not so much for 2018-2019 Eberle.
IOW for a 25 goal, 55-65 pt guy that's a decent contract, but if he plays like last year eh, not a big fan.
Probably wasn't so much taking less IMO as the disappointing 2018-2019 season depressed his value.
Who specifically? that plays wing?
Because if you're comparing a Skinner overpay to a an Eberle contract, that's not close to relevant for a guy who plays a different position and is two years younger.
No idea why Islanders fans are so thin-skinned about everything and take it personally. I'm one person with one opinion.
You can disagree with me "pal"
I agree with your take PJ. I think what we saw with Eberle and Barzal reunited at the end of the year is more the player we can expect to see going forward. I expect that is what Lou and Barry saw which made them want to bring him back.
But if he puts up 37 points again in a full season? Yeah, that is too much money.
I agree with your take PJ. I think what we saw with Eberle and Barzal reunited at the end of the year is more the player we can expect to see going forward. I expect that is what Lou and Barry saw which made them want to bring him back.
But if he puts up 37 points again in a full season? Yeah, that is too much money.
Exactly. Eberle is a guy who can bury the puck if he has someone setting him, but that someone was not Brock Nelson. If they are confident putting him with Barzal going forward we know that can be 2/3's of one of the better lines in hockey as it was a couple years ago, though they need to retain the defensive responsibility they played with towards the end of last year.
Losing Lee would suck if it happens, but I do think whatever contract he gets is going to be viewed very close to the way the Frans Nielsen/Kyle Okposo contracts are 3 years later. I hope they can get him back on something under 5x$8m, but if not I will not blame them for passing.
Quote:
just some are. Same as with all fan bases.
I agree with your take PJ. I think what we saw with Eberle and Barzal reunited at the end of the year is more the player we can expect to see going forward. I expect that is what Lou and Barry saw which made them want to bring him back.
But if he puts up 37 points again in a full season? Yeah, that is too much money.
Exactly. Eberle is a guy who can bury the puck if he has someone setting him, but that someone was not Brock Nelson. If they are confident putting him with Barzal going forward we know that can be 2/3's of one of the better lines in hockey as it was a couple years ago, though they need to retain the defensive responsibility they played with towards the end of last year.
Losing Lee would suck if it happens, but I do think whatever contract he gets is going to be viewed very close to the way the Frans Nielsen/Kyle Okposo contracts are 3 years later. I hope they can get him back on something under 5x$8m, but if not I will not blame them for passing.
Agree with this 100% and the first part is all my point was.
Mike in Ohio summed it up nicely
Gotta love the deal. Really. He single-handedly won the Penguins series (in terms of offensive production) and was our best player the final six weeks of the season, too. His numbers are misleading. Couldn't stay healthy and couldn't perform when he was, but he finally found his gear late. And I think that guy at the end is not only the guy the Islanders want, but is the guy they're going to get.
Bottom line is he would've gotten more on the market and is usually a guy who'll give you about 60 points in a healthy season. If he's a 2nd line winger and we can get a true first line winger, it makes the deal even better.
A lot of interesting directions for the Islanders to go but the team who seemingly is the best fit for them in terms of a trade is FL. I think they are the top contender for Panarin (& BOB) but they don't have enough room for both without making a deal. They need defense though and that's what we have to sell - whether it's Leddy, Pelech, or Mayfield - who I'd move in that order.
Hoffman only has 1 year left at a similar AAV as Leddy, but I'd want a conditional pick (2020 2nd?) attached to whether or not he resigns here since Leddy has 3 years left.
For the younger guys it would probably take a bigger deal since Mayfield's contract is such a steal. Maybe something like Mayfield + Beauvillier+ good prospect (Wilde?) for Huberdeau or Trochek?
Obviously best case would just be throwing a ton of money at Panarin and then trading Leddy to save a little money for Lee (or his replacement).
I do suspect some of these teams bumping up against the cap and light on D are going to be willing to give up more than people realize for Mayfield's insane contract (4 years @ $1.45m). Even with our RD full and Dobson on the way I'd hate to deal him. He was our best PK D by a mile and is a rock solid #3/4 D who is not only a physical presence but chips in 20+ points. Only 27 and seems to get better every year.