Zion Williamson - no prospect like him in history. That relates to so much about him that is unique: jumping explosiveness is downright ridiculous, his physique, the's lefty, he's highly aggressive/competitive, is a very good defender, very good ball handler. To me the highest risk isn't how much better his perimeter game gets (that's important to going from very good to great), but I worry about his weight. He's 285 at 19. Imagine if he is 325 in 5 years. Can his back, knees etc. handle that esp the way he plays.
More players to come in this thread.
You dudes would've accused me of stalking him! Haha
I just said, "Zion! Zion! Wish you were a Knick!"
The best I could find recently was Demar DeRozan.
As a freshman? Melo, Kawhi, Iggy, Tobias Harris come to mind depending on your definition of "great player". Less recently Paul Pierce and Shawn Marion and if you remove the position -- De'Aaron Fox, Blake Griffin, Paul Millsap, Kemba Walker, Conley, Kyle Lowry, Kemba walker
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I'm just having a difficult time finding a wing player who shot like this in college across the board and went on to become a great player.
The best I could find recently was Demar DeRozan.
As a freshman? Melo, Kawhi, Iggy, Tobias Harris come to mind depending on your definition of "great player". Less recently Paul Pierce and Shawn Marion and if you remove the position -- De'Aaron Fox, Blake Griffin, Paul Millsap, Kemba Walker, Conley, Kyle Lowry, Kemba walker
Damn near every player you just named shot better from the free throw line as a freshman. The guys who shot as poorly as Barrett (or worse) didn't leave school as freshmen and sure as heck wouldn't have been the 3rd pick in any draft. The closest I can find from your examples is Mike Conley, who I'm pretty shocked to find out has never even made an All-NBA team or All-Star team during his career. I'm not saying Barrett can't be great... I sure as hell hope he is. It's just difficult to find a similar case recently in the NBA.
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It was 100 pounds in 2 years. Link - ( New Window )
A different time frame altogether.
Of course but 100 pounds in 2 years for any human is craziness. I'm not saying I am one of those who are worried about him. I just thought that piece of info was crazy.
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In comment 14476754 shockeyisthebest8056 said:
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I'm just having a difficult time finding a wing player who shot like this in college across the board and went on to become a great player.
The best I could find recently was Demar DeRozan.
As a freshman? Melo, Kawhi, Iggy, Tobias Harris come to mind depending on your definition of "great player". Less recently Paul Pierce and Shawn Marion and if you remove the position -- De'Aaron Fox, Blake Griffin, Paul Millsap, Kemba Walker, Conley, Kyle Lowry, Kemba walker
Damn near every player you just named shot better from the free throw line as a freshman. The guys who shot as poorly as Barrett (or worse) didn't leave school as freshmen and sure as heck wouldn't have been the 3rd pick in any draft. The closest I can find from your examples is Mike Conley, who I'm pretty shocked to find out has never even made an All-NBA team or All-Star team during his career. I'm not saying Barrett can't be great... I sure as hell hope he is. It's just difficult to find a similar case recently in the NBA.
But RJ shot better from 2 or 3 than a bunch of them. The FT % differences were mostly negligible and Melo WAS the third pick in the draft. His TS % was in line with most of those guys. I should also point out that historically, ft shooting % isn't a great predictor of success as a shooter at the next level. It's useful directionally but has been overweighted in the last couple of years as a narrative (I believe Tatum was the player who was most often cited as evidence).
This is great, last week I ran into Tessa Thompson. I was an arm's length from her and a couple years ago J-Lo and AROD.
Both J-Lo and Thompson are even more beautiful in person if you can imagine.
Funny thing is the huge debate on Barrett, while Morant gets little debate and is a definitive lock somehow...
For as much hype as Zion gets, Barrett and Morant are exciting prospects in their own right.
Happy to sit at 3 and take who they leave us with.
Actually, the better method would be to trade down and get a king's ransom including future first rounders.
The athleticism stuff - IMO he's a top 1/3 MAYBE 1/4 in the NBA. On court I see him lesser than many Gs - Westbrook, Dame, Kemba, DMitch, Simmons, Steph, Fox, Oladipo, even guys like Shroeder, TYoung, DSJ. Then there's Gs he'll have trouble w/ regardless: Lowry, Conley, Teague, Drue, Bledsoe, Brogdon, Booker, Rondo, Rubio, McCollum etc, ignoring when ETurner or PG or even LBJ guard him
Also he's coming from the lesser OVC. Given the physicality & speed of the game, IMO finishing at least will take a huge adjustment. Even if that was ok, his D IQ & motor suck, as well as off the ball
And more generally, people rip on Westbrook (some say JM's ceiling, I say not even close athletically to start), or other stat fillers as non-winners. How is Morant a better version even if he does hit his ceiling?
I also think the Conley trade is not great for Morant. Was exactly the PG he needed for his weaknesses & skillset IMO (Conley is a solid floor general). Meh, just IMO but I'm surprised at the hype and lack of debate for a low conference guy (while Barrett is a big ?)
I'm just not sure those make a top 3 pick on their own (again IF he does improve those things), especially when you are talking no D and really not a lot of motor unless he has the ball. IMO that makes him a better passing / lesser scoring Kemba, or a no D / motor Rondo, or Rubio. Those are not top 3 picks even today...
Where Morant, what has he shown without the ball? Much tougher adjustment, fit and longer time frame
Even so I'll be happy to have a PG if he lands in NY, but IMO am very happy w/ RJ. He's the right pick for NYK IMO
JM 24ppg, 7 reb, 10 asst, 50% FG, 36% 3FG, 81FT%
RJB 23ppg, 8 reb, 4 asst, 45% FG, 31% 3FG, 66FT%
DG 16ppg, 4 reb, 3 asst, 54% FG, 48% 3FG, 75FT%
JC 19ppg, 6 reb, 4 asst, 46% FG, 30% 3FG, 70FT%
The athleticism stuff - IMO he's a top 1/3 MAYBE 1/4 in the NBA. On court I see him lesser than many Gs - Westbrook, Dame, Kemba, DMitch, Simmons, Steph, Fox, Oladipo, even guys like Shroeder, TYoung, DSJ. Then there's Gs he'll have trouble w/ regardless: Lowry, Conley, Teague, Drue, Bledsoe, Brogdon, Booker, Rondo, Rubio, McCollum etc, ignoring when ETurner or PG or even LBJ guard him
Also he's coming from the lesser OVC. Given the physicality & speed of the game, IMO finishing at least will take a huge adjustment. Even if that was ok, his D IQ & motor suck, as well as off the ball
And more generally, people rip on Westbrook (some say JM's ceiling, I say not even close athletically to start), or other stat fillers as non-winners. How is Morant a better version even if he does hit his ceiling?
I also think the Conley trade is not great for Morant. Was exactly the PG he needed for his weaknesses & skillset IMO (Conley is a solid floor general). Meh, just IMO but I'm surprised at the hype and lack of debate for a low conference guy (while Barrett is a big ?)
wow we completely see 2 different prospects i guess. Morant has the explosiveness of Westbrook but knows how to stop n go better than Russ. He already shoots 36% from three, 80% from the line, and the competition point is silly because he put up gaudy stats against big teams. I mean the kid averaged a double double. Nothing is suspect about him aside from the three being consistent and the defensive intensity being a bit better.
wow we completely see 2 different prospects i guess. Morant has the explosiveness of Westbrook but knows how to stop n go better than Russ. He already shoots 36% from three, 80% from the line, and the competition point is silly because he put up gaudy stats against big teams. I mean the kid averaged a double double. Nothing is suspect about him aside from the three being consistent and the defensive intensity being a bit better.
I agree with you on Morant's explosiveness but the competition point isn't a silly one. Morant faced a top 35 defense once this year (final tourney game) and went 3-15 from inside the arc. He's an incredible transition player but his half-court game is still something that needs further developing.
On defense, it's not solely an intensity thing imo. He's got a slight frame and switching could give him issues.
That's not to say he's not an excellent prospect, he definitely is. He's just not a perfect one imo.
The best I could find recently was Demar DeRozan.
Are looking only their freshman years ? I honestly do t have the numbers but i wonder if some players that were very good had similar numbers elite in their college years
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wow we completely see 2 different prospects i guess. Morant has the explosiveness of Westbrook but knows how to stop n go better than Russ. He already shoots 36% from three, 80% from the line, and the competition point is silly because he put up gaudy stats against big teams. I mean the kid averaged a double double. Nothing is suspect about him aside from the three being consistent and the defensive intensity being a bit better.
I agree with you on Morant's explosiveness but the competition point isn't a silly one. Morant faced a top 35 defense once this year (final tourney game) and went 3-15 from inside the arc. He's an incredible transition player but his half-court game is still something that needs further developing.
On defense, it's not solely an intensity thing imo. He's got a slight frame and switching could give him issues.
That's not to say he's not an excellent prospect, he definitely is. He's just not a perfect one imo.
not perfect, no. But i have a lot more faith in him as a prospect than Barrett. Barrett screams above average, very solid but unspectacular career to me. I don't see him busting, also don't see him being the #1 guy on a team either.
He is thin right now, good point. and you're 3-15 stat is misleading considering he was actually 8-21.
Alabama: 38 (16-29) 10 reb 5 asts BUT 10 TO yikes
Auburn: 25 (7-14) 8 rebounds 7 asts 5 TO
Marquette: 17 (5-9) 11 rebounds 16 asts 7 TO\
If you're a fan like me, you say the turnovers are high because he is trying to do too much. Regardless, they are too high. He's efficient shooting wise. I don't worry about him around the rim long term because he has the 6'7 wingspan, excellent ability to finish with both hands and a great vert. I do agree with the original point that a lack of strength will be an issue until he puts on more muscle. I just don't get the Russ comparisons because Westbrook has never figured out how to control a game like a point guard should. Morant has a much better understanding of how to play, like when to catch a sleeping defense and be a 1 man fast break. Or, he keeps his dribble alive and waits patiently. If he can come into the league and keep the 3% around 35, playing him in the PnR will be near impossible. But i have a feeling he'll slip a bit the first year. Long arms will allow for a lot of deflections and steals.
Hey, i admit i am a sucker for smaller school guys. I love the Trail Blazers duo. Love guys who come out of nowhere. We'll see i've been wrong plenty.
The lack of strength is a concern because it's not clear to me that he can add much muscle given his frame.
ASU rather. Think it was Dort
I only bring up RW because he's pretty much 'the best / highest ceiling' comp for Morant and a common comp. Yet I haven't seen one play where Morant is as high motor or gets up as high (where Zion it's impossible to miss). Sure he's athletic, but OVC he's #1 athlete. NBA not that close even at G. He will get contested at the rim a ton more, even games w/o a good 1-on-1 defender. Will he he adjusts in yr 1-2-3 to playing say the Bucks, or Raps, or Jazz? He could but it's nothing he's shown yet
While RJB's about as complete a prospect as you can ask for, from the closest to NBA competition. Not sexy because he's not elite at anything, but still room to improve to do so. RJB has to become a more efficient version of what he already does, vs NBA competition. Yet Morant treated as almost bust-proof with the same issues glossed over when they are more applicable - like ball dominant, and a volume guy in terms of scoring...can't say it about RJB (even tho it's a legit concern) and not w/ Morant
I also think some mistake "ceiling" w/ weaknesses. RJB w/ fewer weaknesses has less ceiling, but guys like Morant Culver etc have a huge ceiling because they are great at 1 thing, so can improve at everything else? Or is it easier to get the guy who's more versatile to get great at 1 thing? So to me RJB is a much better prospect with a similar high ceiling. While Morant certainly could fill out those skills, but why is it safer to bet on that?
All good tho, just discussion. The pros don't get it right so we'll see. Plus so much more of it depends on the team / coach / development no matter what we think on draft day
Actually, kind of reminds me loosely of the DJones conversation. Doesn't wow you but does most things well. And RJB is an obvious better prospect in a sport w/ an easier transition, certainly than a QB to the NFL
But you can expect some FBs, even if not a full-time point-fwd. Bring him off the bench as a guy who can run the O at times, run the break, if not finish as he is a rim attacker. I'm not a big iso fan, but yeah, he can do that too
And given the competition in the ACC, it's the easiest jump, so what you've seen is much more likely to translate successfully & sooner. And that's assuming he doesn't build an elite skill (J, handle, rim finishing etc - pretty good at those already). No guarantee but that's my thinking
Wiggins really? I guess I haven't seen him a ton, but would think he is WAY softer, no post game, no D. I'd guess AW was a better shooter. No idea about his handle, but guys at RJs size tend not to have that handle. That's why I think of ETurner on day 1, but with a lot of ceiling to a PGeorge type (that's the VERY high end tho)
This is what i circle back to with him. you have to be elite at something to be a superstar. Whats his elite trait?
Ja Morant Alabama dunk - ( New Window )
Take a look at this scouting report of Tatum and tell me it doesn’t sound exactly like how people are describing Barrett now:
Strengths: Tatum possesses one of the most NBA-ready skill sets in the draft, with some comfort scoring at all levels. He’s able to create space for himself and make difficult shots when necessary, a necessity for most elite scorers in the league. He has the size to in theory play both forward positions, and the length to be a passable defender with some added work. He’s quick enough to attack bigger defenders and big enough to post up smaller ones. Tatum is also a solid rebounder. He enters the league with a solid offensive repertoire and has the potential to lead a team in scoring one day.
Weaknesses: Although Tatum’s skill set is impressive, he’s not an athlete of the highest tier, which makes it tougher to draw a direct through-line to NBA success. Tatum can fall in love with his mid-range shot at times and occasionally will take a tough look when he doesn’t need to. He’s developing as a passer but isn’t a playmaker with the ball in his hands, and if he doesn’t work on defense, it’s hard to see how he’ll impact the game when he isn’t shooting the ball. Tatum will have to expand his game or risk being branded a one-dimensional scoring specialist.
Tatum Scouting Report - ( New Window )
Wiggins problem isn’t a lack of talent. He’s soft, unintelligent, and by all accounts lazy and unwilling to put the work in. Barrett by all accounts is the complete opposite mentally.
Dylan Windler Belmont - ( New Window )
Even that dunk clip. 2 defenders go matador, the 2 bigs cower for a wide open rim. Exactly what happens on so many of his drives. That's NOT going to happen vs playoff teams, if not most NBA teams. And that dunk was length not explosion / ups. It reminds me of Melo, athletic / quick but not explosive. It scares me because he will lose much of that adv given NBA competition where he's far from the #1 athlete. And why I think of Ish Smith (again, as the floor). Much of his game will require significant adjustment, even his elite passing...
I know I'm in the minority re: athleticism. Still people seem to comp OVC players and not to NBA. Or yours comp: ESPN top 10s (mostly vs OVC), dunk highlights, a father who played D1, or a few decent OVC players. I'd not compare to M St or UConn either. There are some OVC prospects but not many - they obv aren't as good as a conference. So touting his triple double, sure it's an achievement - while many shit on RW in the NBA AVERAGING it for 2-3 years as inefficient, a non-winner. Yet JM would be lucky to be that good. None of that sounds like a lock, nor do I see why even if Ja hits his ceiling he's better or more likely to W really
Also RJB would have TORN UP the OVC. I like Windler (love Ingles), but he would have gotten schooled. I don't even know how a guy like Cowart exists as a starter. There's few league wide you could even throw at him of comparable size, much less skill. That's JM's daily competition. Again, why I find the concern for RJ and the certainty of JM kind of backwards
Good debate anyway!
It’s hard to say if Barrett will be Evan Turner or Brandon Roy, but Andrew Wiggins he is not. More than his skills or athleticism, his drive/competitiveness/alpha mentality will make him successful on the next level. To say his skills won’t develop at age 18 is silly, in fact they are elite for his age. For some reason people judge him as if he is 6-4, he is a legit 6-7. I do think his athleticism will play up in the NBA, like Devin Booker and James Harden.
Even that Bama dunk, it wasn't a standout athletic feat in the NBA, nor great move, just a hard dunk vs awful D. Many of his highlights look a lot like that. That's why my list of similar / better NBA Gs as athletes is relevant. We all can name 8-10 guys just off the top on his level (tier 1, explosive, whatever label). As you agreed, there are those who are clearly better too. So uber-athlete in general, sure. Vs the NBA? It's a long enough list to question how quick he makes the transition. In the OVC he was athlete #1 hands down. In the NBA, not close to that. And without the same athletic superiority what happens?
Then what about superior Gs, regardless of athleticism? Lowry, Conley, Shroeder, Brogdan, Bledsoe, Hill or any number of PGs will be tough on both ends til he develops. A few years out maybe. But why is that a lock in comparison to RJB as a prospect?
I'll be happy to admit either I missed something or he's improving as we go (I don't care, I like good bball!), but I think the hype for him excessive on their own. Then especially comparing to RJB when half the arguments are more relevant to Morant
Turner I love the comp. IMO this is Barrett basically today (yes we'll see!). Not a lot of range, nor a plus athlete, but long, fast enough, decent passer, decent post game (esp for 2019), enough handle to play pt-fwd or run the O off the bench, decent defender even tho not elite at anything. Personally while not a top player, IMO quite underappreciated across the league. Barrett is likely a bit tougher on the inside, and much more of a scorer & rim attacker I believe, if not better at many of those skills
And also why I like the PGeorge as the top side. Not elite at anything again (esp early career). But he is a phenomenal player, fits many situations (top dog, facilitator, D / rebounding too), and even if not elite at anything the versatility makes a fantastic top 10 player. RJB would be lucky to get there of course, but his game today is already kind of a lesser version of the same
Nitilkina is the complete opposite, a kid who seemed insecure almost all the time, and his play showed that. How he played so well in Europe and never showed any growth here amazed me. Sure, injuries didn't help, but lack of self confidence seemed to be an even greater deficiency.
Fwiw it's another question on JM - picks a lower conference, hands down the best athlete, trying to make the NBA and still no effort on D or off the ball? I don't get PGs that don't move off the ball. It can speak to low bball IQ, if not just the concerning low effort. A bad trait for a ball dominant player. Something RJB already does well in spite of a similar critique
Again just IMO, but still points to possible overhype if not just legit risks on JM that are being ignored for some reason
Tho I'm hand down RJB, I'll love rooting for the best passer we've had since who knows when, and hope he does develop whether my scouting is accurate or not! This time tomorrow we will know :)