Tim Healey
@timbhealey
Breaking: Zack Wheeler is being placed on the injured list with right shoulder fatigue, a source says.
The IL move is retroactive to Friday, so the soonest he can return is July 23. That leaves Wheeler with two starts max before the trade deadline.
Idon't know if either of those things will happen but it's one way to quickly restock the roster/farm system but also maintain some pitching depth.
Noah would bring back more obviously.
His thought was you can trade Wheeler this deadline and the return you get for him is mostly in the hands of BVW.
Or
You can keep him, offer the QO, which would undoubtedly be turned down, have him sign elsewhere, get a comp pick, and leave the return for him in the hands of the amateur scouting dept.
I know which one I'd pick. Of course Wheeler needs to be healthy for the QO/turn down the QO to happen.
We'll see how it looks in the second half. Vargas is losing velocity and doesn't have a lot of that to begin with. If Wheeler is out for a while, it's not going to be pretty.
His thought was you can trade Wheeler this deadline and the return you get for him is mostly in the hands of BVW.
Or
You can keep him, offer the QO, which would undoubtedly be turned down, have him sign elsewhere, get a comp pick, and leave the return for him in the hands of the amateur scouting dept.
I know which one I'd pick. Of course Wheeler needs to be healthy for the QO/turn down the QO to happen.
It's mostly good logic, but it ignores the fact that the Mets are cash strapped. I worry that they don't want to QO him because they aren't prepared for him to accept. While most teams wouldn't mind Wheeler at 1yr/$18M (he's certainly a good bet to hit 2.5-3WAR for one year unless this injury is serious), the Mets likely won't want to commit that salary.
I hope they retain and QO, but I worry they'll sell for whatever they can get at the deadline, even if value is less than 2nd round pick + slot money.
Perhaps this injury helps us? Maybe he misses 3-4 starts, Mets can't trade him. He finishes strong and team is forced to QO him to avoid bad publicity?
They'll likely get a full year back from Cespedes and I think even the insurance company is going to try and sue him.
Matt Ehalt
@MattEhalt
2h
This is not a "what is Wheeler worth" discussion. He's a good pitcher and he'll flourish if you put him with a strong defense.
This is an economics scope, and I"m just not sure how the Mets fill their holes while also upping one guy's salary at 3X the rate.
Show this thread
Matt Ehalt
@MattEhalt
2h
Said it before, but the Wheeler-Qualifying offer route doesn't make sense to me. This team is projected to have limited spending as it is, and they're suddenly gonna pay Wheeler 3X what he made in 2019?
Doesn't add up.
Trade him now, and then give Lockett an audition.
I still think they offer him the QO. They'll look to pinch pennies elsewhere.
Not like he has a lengthy injury history.
Mathew Brownstein
@MBrownstein89
2m2 minutes ago
Zack Wheeler's avg. velocity on all his pitches were down in his last start.
Check out his start on 7/2 compared to 7/7:
4-seam:
7/2: 97.0
7/7: 95.6
Sinker:
7/2: 96.5
7/7: 95.3
Slider:
7/2: 91.5
7/7: 90.4
Split:
7/2: 89.1
7/7: 87.5
Curve:
7/2: 80.0
7/7: 78.3
#Mets #LGM
What's frustrating is that retaining Wheeler to compete in 2020 is necessary but not sufficient. If they retain Wheeler at $15-$20M, what money is left to improve the rest of the team?
But met luck says he goes unsigned till after the draft lol
Mets Farm Report
Verified account @MetsFarmReport
2m2 minutes ago
Shervyen Newton is on a tear.
8️⃣ multi-hit games in his last 🔟 contests. 🤯
Jeffrey Paternostro
@jeffpaternostro
17m
They are already payroll neutral year to year on arb and contractual raises. Doubt theyd add another huge one in Wheeler.
Mets Farm Report
Verified account @MetsFarmReport
2m2 minutes ago
Shervyen Newton is on a tear.
8️⃣ multi-hit games in his last 🔟 contests. 🤯
Worth noting Newton hasn't walked once since June 28th, a span of 13 games and since 6/21 has walked 2 times (20 games, vs. 32 k's)
That's $30M more to spend.
Again though, Cano was such a stupid trade.
While the Mets have good reason to try to exist their employment contract with Cespedes, the guaranteed qualities of MLB player contracts pose a sizable hurdle.
Cespedess employment contract is not public, but MLBs Uniform Player Contract (UPC) is public. The UPC is included as an attachment to the collective bargaining agreement signed by MLB and the MLBPA. Player contracts must meet the requirements of the UPC and, in most regards, cannot adopt different language from what is found in the UPC. The CBA also empowers players, through the MLBPA, to file contact grievances against teams. These grievances are heard by a neutral arbitrator.
Over the years, the MLBPA has successfully repelled attempts by teams to void players contracts. The guarantees of player contracts were most glaringly seen in the unsuccessful attempt by the San Diego Padres to void the contract of pitcher LaMarr Hoyt in 1987. Even though Hoyt was incarcerated for a drug possession offense and even though the UPC contains language requiring that players exhibit good citizenship, neutral arbitrator George Nicolau deemed contract forfeiture to be an excessive punishment. Hoyts contract remained in effect.
The Mets are also familiar with the difficulties of voiding player contracts when players are implicated in legal trouble. In 2010, the team could have attempted to void the contract of righthanded closer Francisco Rodriguez, better known as K-Rod. Rodriguez was charged with assault and tore ligaments in his right thumb during an altercation with his girlfriends father. The Mets instead suspended Rodriguez indefinitely for violating the UPC. The team also reportedly converted some of his contractual guarantees into non-guaranteed compensation. Rodriguez would not pitch again until the following season.
Link - ( New Window )
seems like NFL contracts get voided every day, the other sports might too, but man, MLB contracts I guess are iron clad.
MLB shits on the players for the first 6 years (or until they are arb eligible) then get it back 10-fold.
But met luck says he goes unsigned till after the draft lol
You know better than me but I agree, the speculation that they'd not even qualify him seems very unlikely to me. They qualified Murphy multiple times. They qualified (and wasted) almost $4m on TDA last year. They tend to not let useful players walk for nothing. They also pocketed a ton of extra $ from insurance this year, not just Cespedes but probably Lowrie too.
I agree it's unique, but I think most prospective employers would recognize and respect a) his being the most aggressive and effective agent possible while being an agent and b) being the most effective and competent GM as possible in that role.
I can't see a sports agency holding against him an act that would clearly be in the best interest of his team.
In fact I'd say if BVW is doing ANYTHING to protect his potential future of being an agent again post-GM career he should be fired.
You cannot serve two masters. He's either an agent or a GM, he's not both and he can't be a GM protecting his future of becoming an agent again IMO.
Personally, I could care less either way. His numbers are a bit down this year which hurts his value. If hes not bringing back a blue chipper Id prefer to keep him anyway and take my chances in the offseason either by deal or QO.
Personally, I could care less either way. His numbers are a bit down this year which hurts his value. If hes not bringing back a blue chipper Id prefer to keep him anyway and take my chances in the offseason either by deal or QO.
Velocity was down on all of his pitches last start so the "injury" is real. If it's just fatigue or soreness, that's possible but it's certainly not "faked".
Quote:
He probably is a little fatigued... his workload has been insane. But if you are negotiating with a few teams, why risk it?
Personally, I could care less either way. His numbers are a bit down this year which hurts his value. If hes not bringing back a blue chipper Id prefer to keep him anyway and take my chances in the offseason either by deal or QO.
Velocity was down on all of his pitches last start so the "injury" is real. If it's just fatigue or soreness, that's possible but it's certainly not "faked".
Im sure there are plenty of pitchers that experience fatigue throughout a season and pitch through it. Not everyone gets ILed over fatigue. Point is with the trading deadline, why risk it? You can hold him out and tell other teams hes perfectly healthy but your just giving him a breather.
If he comes back and looks lights out in two starts before the deadline, his value will be higher IMO than if he tried to pitch through this and gotten rocked.
If he comes back and looks lights out in two starts before the deadline, his value will be higher IMO than if he tried to pitch through this and gotten rocked.
You do realize that pitchers dont throw at the exact same velocity every start right? Theres like a 1 mph difference in those starts. And was the previous start up from his season average? Obviously, we are all just guessing but that doesnt seem significant to me.
This kid is 18?
When I was 18 I was trying to find ways to get people to buy me beer and get enough courage to talk to girls, this kid seems mature well beyond his years.
If these three kids at the top of the draft pan out (not likely all three will) it will be a while obviously but it could help negate some of the major league team bullshit BVW has caused.
Link - ( New Window )
I get the money, the heels that never heal and the phantom farming injury.... but boy, do I miss watching this guy play baseball.
Dilson Herrera too, not so much average, but power.
too bad this wasn't three or four years ago.
This kid is 18?
When I was 18 I was trying to find ways to get people to buy me beer and get enough courage to talk to girls, this kid seems mature well beyond his years.
If these three kids at the top of the draft pan out (not likely all three will) it will be a while obviously but it could help negate some of the major league team bullshit BVW has caused.
Link - ( New Window )
Also a perfect example of why settling for crappy returns at the deadline is a waste. Just take the comp picks and extra bonus pool. Putting it towards 1 pick like Allan is 1000x better than all the mediocre deadline deals we've done in the last 5 years combined.
Good for him - never would have happened here. The culture here is rotten to the core.
Quote:
vs the Yankees. Really killing it for them lately.
Good for him - never would have happened here. The culture here is rotten to the core.
It really is. I sadly am waiting for it to ruin McNeil and Alonso, Smith, Davis. The Mets actually have a decent offensive core. They just need some defensive players at CF, SS and 3B. And a pitching staff w less ego.
Quote:
but holy shit, watch this Matt Allan video.
This kid is 18?
When I was 18 I was trying to find ways to get people to buy me beer and get enough courage to talk to girls, this kid seems mature well beyond his years.
If these three kids at the top of the draft pan out (not likely all three will) it will be a while obviously but it could help negate some of the major league team bullshit BVW has caused.
Link - ( New Window )
Also a perfect example of why settling for crappy returns at the deadline is a waste. Just take the comp picks and extra bonus pool. Putting it towards 1 pick like Allan is 1000x better than all the mediocre deadline deals we've done in the last 5 years combined.
I agree, but if the player won't be QO'd I'd take the crappy return instead of nothing. I just prefer lottery tickets to being "safe"
This was one of my major issues with the Sandy sell-off's of 2017 and 2018 (how depressing is that heading into another one with even less to sell).
Familia for Wahl and Toffey
Duda for Drew Smith
Reed for Jamie Callahan, Gerson Bautista and Stephen Nogosek.
Jay Bruce for Ryder Ryan
Walker for Hanhold
Grandy for Rhame
I guess Sandy's strategy was just load the farm with mediocre bullpen guys and hope one becomes better than that?
Other than Toffey, I think all these guys are relievers.
I guess Hanhold and Nogosek could still pan out, but I would much rather have made those trades for lower level prospects with upside.
not being unrealistic and expecting Familia for Mike Trout, just I have a problem with the approach that definitely seemed to target relievers.
And none of those guys the Mets traded were going to get a QO IMO if they were FA's.
d'Arnaud is the latest example but Robles closing in LA now, Bruce's power pat in Philly and consistency coming from Swarzak in mid relief for ATL. I mean, holy shit.
I'm willing to bet wherever Wheeler goes next he will dominate and be one of the top arms to sign in FA.
Is Mesoraco still out there?
Get your shit together Mets
d'Arnaud is the latest example but Robles closing in LA now, Bruce's power pat in Philly and consistency coming from Swarzak in mid relief for ATL. I mean, holy shit.
I'm willing to bet wherever Wheeler goes next he will dominate and be one of the top arms to sign in FA.
Is Mesoraco still out there?
Get your shit together Mets
Agree with your premise in general. I don't think you can really use TDA as an example though. While he may not have hit 3 hrs in a game here, he would get hot at times too. His issue was durability. Let's see if he can stay on the field the rest of the year.
I agree, but if the player won't be QO'd I'd take the crappy return instead of nothing. I just prefer lottery tickets to being "safe"
This was one of my major issues with the Sandy sell-off's of 2017 and 2018 (how depressing is that heading into another one with even less to sell).
Familia for Wahl and Toffey
Duda for Drew Smith
Reed for Jamie Callahan, Gerson Bautista and Stephen Nogosek.
Jay Bruce for Ryder Ryan
Walker for Hanhold
Grandy for Rhame
I guess Sandy's strategy was just load the farm with mediocre bullpen guys and hope one becomes better than that?
Other than Toffey, I think all these guys are relievers.
I guess Hanhold and Nogosek could still pan out, but I would much rather have made those trades for lower level prospects with upside.
not being unrealistic and expecting Familia for Mike Trout, just I have a problem with the approach that definitely seemed to target relievers.
And none of those guys the Mets traded were going to get a QO IMO if they were FA's.
Sandy didn't make the Familia trade (that was the 3 headed interim GM after he left) and none of the other guys had any value - with the exception being Reed, though you're right he probably wouldn't have gotten a QO because it would have overpaid him too much as a reliever. Walker, Grandy, and Duda were all done here when they got traded (and Bruce should have been). They were salary dumps as much as they were "trades". The best asset he ever dealt at the deadline was Beltran and miraculously he got Wheeler out of that.
Not to say the evaluations on the returns couldn't have been better, they definitely could have. I believe Capone told us we turned down Tyler O'neil for Duda. I'm sure useful prospects ended up getting transacted at those deadlines - just not the ones we got. But the combined war on all the guys we gave up since leaving is probably under 2 or 3. They were all basically cooked as starting caliber players. Teams very rarely give up good prospects for rentals anymore, let alone those that are mediocre (at best). Especially if they have to take on their salaries.
But my point remains, younger prospects with upside do still get dealt at the deadline.
Not even talking top 100 guys, but the Mets middle reliever strategy was doomed from the beginning and it was because they didn't want to pay market rate for free agent relievers. Sandy probably felt like he could deal the Mets spare parts for a bullpen.
In other news. never heard of this guy, but off to a good start:
Jacob Resnick
@Jacob_Resnick
2h2 hours ago
With four strikeouts in two innings last night for the @ColaFireflies, #Mets 32nd-round draft pick Cole Gordon (@HailStateBB) continued his excellent start to his pro career.
5 G, 0.00 ERA, 14 K, 2 BB. Highlights:
I do find it hard to believe that, even if you think they were salary dumps (though most were impending FA's so not really salary dumps) or replacement level players.
Familia
Bruce
Duda
Reed
Neil Walker
Granderson
got back not one major leaguer.
The Mets even re-signed Bruce and Familia after their rental teams "used" them.
And some of the commentary here is way off base.
When the Mets traded Duda at the 2017 deadline he had a .879 OPS and OPS+ of 132 and that wasn't a crazy outlier for his career - it as higher, but not crazy.
Jay Bruce had 29 HR's when he was traded and an .841 OPS and a 121 OPS+.
Bruce was a waiver trade though, but he shouldn't have been.
Either way, I don't think criticism of the load up on relievers strategy was a good one, I - along with many others - said so at the time - and it's looking like an awful strategy every year as the Ryder Ryan's and Jaimie Callahans flame out or get traded for cash or just DFAd.
And re: the guys they gave up, anyone can have decent stats in a half season. Like Frazier right now. But teams are more and more hesitant to take on multi-million chunks of $, even just over the next few months, for fringe starting players who have no future starting beyond these few months. Bruce is the only guy dealt who remained a starting level player beyond and got a multi-year deal in FA (from us).
That's fine there's more than 1 way to skin a cat and, as they say, execution eats strategy for lunch. Plus we're talking about low value assets in the first place so my expectations of what those guys should have brought back isn't very high. Familia is the only one who should have been able to bring back a significantly better return (other relievers last year like Herrera did).
Sandy's 2017 deadline wasn't his finest hour (nor the 17-18' offseason) but the first rule of any big decision is "first do no harm". Far more important than handing out a few bad contracts or mis-evaluating some tier 3 prospects were his handling of high value assets throughout his tenure (premium draft picks, getting the bigger trades right like Dickey/Beltran/Cespedes).
Both the 3 headed monster last deadline and BVW's offseason have driven home just how much we took for granted the value of the simple foundation of "first do no harm". As well as the value of professionalism and not operating like a total embarrassment.
1. In MOST cases a P is a RP because he failed as a SP, that in itself tells you that RP is the "last chance" for most of these guys.
2. RP prospects have the least trade value, outside of studs you likely aren't going to be able to flip one in a deal for something else of value.
3. RP prospects have a massive bust rate
4. RP are volatile as is.
1. In MOST cases a P is a RP because he failed as a SP, that in itself tells you that RP is the "last chance" for most of these guys.
2. RP prospects have the least trade value, outside of studs you likely aren't going to be able to flip one in a deal for something else of value.
3. RP prospects have a massive bust rate
4. RP are volatile as is.
Agree with all of this. I'd rather take a flier on a starting pitcher who hasn't been relegated to BP yet or a position player who they'd need to protect in rule V or something like that. I'd prefer my lottery tickets to have upside that isn't middle reliever, even if they fail.
And I don't believe I undervalue middle relievers, I just think there are so many places to get cheap middle relievers.
Turning down Duda for O'Neil was stupid, and they should have gotten more for Reed + Familia.
The 1 deal we forgot was the Cabrera deal last year, which was actually a very good one even though Kilome appears to have been at least semi-damaged goods.
All of it is deck chairs on the titanic compared to something like the Cano deal or the decision to trade Kelenic/Diaz. Or the decision to spend $13m per year on Bruce instead of $15m per year on Cain when they already had better, cheaper, younger COF'ers and CF was a massive need.
Seems to be building back up arm strength.
Even though it seems like his rehab has taken a really long time.
I wonder how his stuff is.
I bet Adam Rubin would know.