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It's reasonable to be unreasonably optimistic. (Long post)

BillT : 7/18/2019 3:36 pm
Why? Because last year we stunk. Not just the 5-11 stunk but a specific kind of stunk. Our OL, as has been mentioned here, was the worst team in the league in allowing first point of contact against our RBs. Football Outsiders ranked us the 29th worst team in run blocking overall and that includes being the best team in the league in open field blocking thanks mostly, I believe, to our WRs and TEs. This was a terrible OL which can be best summarized by saying that Jamon Brown’s eight games made him, at worst, our 3rd best OL!

Are we better this year? Eric’s OL preview include these phrases “On paper, this appears to be the team’s best offensive line in almost a decade”, “Hernandez and Zeitler are arguably one of the best set of starting guards in the NFL.”, “The Giants haven’t been in such good shape here since the days of Rich Seubert and Chris Snee.” and (if Remmers is fully recovered) ”the Giants will have massively upgraded themselves at right tackle with another professional, veteran presence.” Yeah, we’re better. Maybe as improved as any unit in the league.

So why does this matter. Two words….Saquon Barkley. I think two numbers tell his story. 16 and 7. 16 runs longer than 20 yards, 7 longer than 40. That’s tied for third best since the year 2000. The other RBs who were as good or better did it as vets in their career best year. Barkley did it as a rookie behind a terrible OL. These are the kind of runs that turn 2nd and 7 at your own 35 into points in one play. Plays that flip the field and impact the game. Behind this OL I think it reasonable to think Saquon might become the most dangerous offensive player in the league and redefine the phrase “he is a threat to take to the house every time he touches the ball”

One more number, 400. Scoring 400+ points is, I believe, a reasonably significant statistic. Over the last five years teams that have scored 400+ points went to the playoffs just over 80% of the time. Of the eight that didn’t go to the playoffs five allowed more that 400 points on defense and only one of those eight had as few as six wins. Four had seven wins the rest more than that. Or put another way, 38 of 43 teams that scored 400+ points had eight or more wins.

So that’s the formula for success. 400+ points on offense, less than 400 points on defense. We scored 369 and let up 412 last year. Flip those numbers and we have a chance at a pretty good season. Does this OL with this RB give us the combination of a reliable running attack and big plays to get us there. A running game that eats the clock and flips the field, makes the passing game more effective and keeps the defense well rested. I think that’s a reasonable projection. Does this guarantee anything. No. All this could happen and we could win two games or maybe none of it happens. However, I’m sticking with unreasonably optimistic.
Solder needs to play better  
Les in TO : 7/18/2019 4:00 pm : link
Right out of the gate. He was a liability in the first half of the season.
I have serious concerns about the defense  
ron mexico : 7/18/2019 4:03 pm : link
Lack of a pass rush and a very inexperienced secondary is a bad combo

We better be able to put up 30 points in the beginning of the year if we want to win some games

Not only reasonable but wise  
Thegratefulhead : 7/18/2019 4:08 pm : link
You might be 100% wrong but it does not matter. As someone who has suffered and watched those he loved suffer, I can tell you that living a happy life is the most important thing you can do. Wasting time anticipating potential misery is one of the largest obstacles to a happy life. It is a crime against happiness. Everything is a function of time. Time is the ultimate currency, spend it positively, you do not know how much you have.
RE: I have serious concerns about the defense  
MotownGIANTS : 7/18/2019 4:10 pm : link
In comment 14501588 ron mexico said:
Quote:
Lack of a pass rush and a very inexperienced secondary is a bad combo

We better be able to put up 30 points in the beginning of the year if we want to win some games


2ndary is not that inexperienced .... Bethea, Peppers, Jenkins are all vets ... Beal has 1 full yr of training camp and field room. Baker is young but a 3 yr starter at a big time program ... he is not newb to the big stage.
Dare I eat a peach?  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 7/18/2019 4:13 pm : link
None of this "on paper"crap, Zeitler is an all pro level G and a huge improvement.

It was criminal the clown show oline we had blocking for SB last year.
RE: Dare I eat a peach?  
Les in TO : 7/18/2019 4:23 pm : link
In comment 14501600 Coach Red Beaulieu said:
Quote:
None of this "on paper"crap, Zeitler is an all pro level G and a huge improvement.

It was criminal the clown show oline we had blocking for SB last year.
you do realize 60 percent of that clown show have returned. Maybe your peach is spiked with LSD?
I think the Giants will be better than they look on paper  
81_Great_Dane : 7/18/2019 4:26 pm : link
because they're a young team with a lot of unproven guys (which makes them look unimpressive on paper). I think they're likely to overachieve. A lot depends on Eli and Shurmur. We're going to learn a lot about Shurmur this season. If he's got the goods as a HC then they should take a big step forward this year, even with all the rookies.
RE: Not only reasonable but wise  
Brown_Hornet : 7/18/2019 4:26 pm : link
In comment 14501593 Thegratefulhead said:
Quote:
You might be 100% wrong but it does not matter. As someone who has suffered and watched those he loved suffer, I can tell you that living a happy life is the most important thing you can do. Wasting time anticipating potential misery is one of the largest obstacles to a happy life. It is a crime against happiness. Everything is a function of time. Time is the ultimate currency, spend it positively, you do not know how much you have.

More words of wisdom from the grateful one.

I fully expect 11-5. IOW, I'm having a great (read positive) offseason!
I'm really excited about the 2019 season and am thrilled with the team as it has been constructed.

I love the youth and am positive that the plusses will outweigh the minuses.

RE: RE: Dare I eat a peach?  
BillT : 7/18/2019 4:30 pm : link
In comment 14501609 Les in TO said:
Quote:
In comment 14501600 Coach Red Beaulieu said:


Quote:


None of this "on paper"crap, Zeitler is an all pro level G and a huge improvement.

It was criminal the clown show oline we had blocking for SB last year.

you do realize 60 percent of that clown show have returned. Maybe your peach is spiked with LSD?

Halapio played one full game. He's almost certainly an upgrade to Pully so I think three new starters is a reasonable way to see it.
RE: Not only reasonable but wise  
Ten Ton Hammer : 7/18/2019 4:30 pm : link
In comment 14501593 Thegratefulhead said:
Quote:
You might be 100% wrong but it does not matter. As someone who has suffered and watched those he loved suffer, I can tell you that living a happy life is the most important thing you can do. Wasting time anticipating potential misery is one of the largest obstacles to a happy life. It is a crime against happiness. Everything is a function of time. Time is the ultimate currency, spend it positively, you do not know how much you have.


There's a difference between anticipating misery and having moderate expectations. Going into a season expecting big things only to be let down sucks too.
RE: RE: Dare I eat a peach?  
johnnyb : 7/18/2019 4:32 pm : link
In comment 14501609 Les in TO said:
Quote:
In comment 14501600 Coach Red Beaulieu said:


Quote:


None of this "on paper"crap, Zeitler is an all pro level G and a huge improvement.

It was criminal the clown show oline we had blocking for SB last year.

you do realize 60 percent of that clown show have returned. Maybe your peach is spiked with LSD?


60% means three are back. I only count two returning- Solder and Hernandez. Halapio was lost early in game two and was replaced by Pully. The right side of the line is new.
Be happy, even joyous, now. You have plenty of time to be  
Marty in Albany : 7/18/2019 5:01 pm : link
unhappy after the season starts (if we continue to stink). But even if we do (and we might not), you will at least have enjoyed the summer.
...  
christian : 7/18/2019 5:54 pm : link
If you look at the run game pre-and-post bye week it's astounding.

The Giants literally averaged 50 more yards a game on the ground the 2nd half of the year.

With a rookie RB who was getting the absolute vast majority of carries, it can't be said enough how much better the Giants were running the ball. You'd expect the rookie to hit the wall, but the exact opposite happened.

Major factors 1) Jamon Brown is a professional run blocker and Omameh was awful 2) Solder settled in 3) the Giants had the same starting 5 lineman suit up weeks 10-17.

If the Giants are going to be a run first team -- they'll need continuity early from the line. If there's musical lineups and injury I expect it to be a rough year.
(Long post) only in this twitter world of ours  
V.I.G. : 7/18/2019 6:31 pm : link
Good stats, thank you.

Your source of optimism is the same source for my concern. I really hope this is a 400pt offense - We were only 2 pts a game from 400 - but I feel our point stats are misleading.

Look at last year's points per quarter for us vs PIT the lowest 400pt team:

NYG
Q1 73.6
Q2 94.4
Q3 80
Q4 116.8 (9th best)

PIT (9-6-1)
Q1 70.4
Q2 166.4
Q3 100.8
Q4 91.2 (24th best)

Teams need to get out ahead early. Then milk the clock and win. That or just keep shooting it out if your D sux (KC). NYG offense was mostly anemic until we got to 4Q, garbage time.

Of the other top 12 4Q scoring offenses - 5 did not make the playoffs. Almost 50%...

YOU CAN'T CONSISTENTLY WIN PLAYING CATCH UP.

The challenge will be to convert excellent special teams scoring into TDs. That I kinda need to see before I believe it.
4Q PPG - ( New Window )
Unreasonably optimistic?  
Jimmy Googs : 7/18/2019 6:59 pm : link
Like throwing a Hail Mary and expecting to complete it...
V.I.G.  
BillT : 7/18/2019 7:37 pm : link
Last year's stats are interesting but I think last year's OL compared to this OL changes all of that. Getting the ball and keeping the ball with Saquon and a competent OL hopefully makes last year's stats just that. Last year's stat's.
I'm optimistic about this team improving this year  
justafan : 7/18/2019 9:35 pm : link
but I don't think we can win enough games in the division or against true playoff teams to actually make the playoffs. A few things could change that though:

- Overall defense improves
- A pass rush emerges
- Offensive line allows Barkley to not just be touched by the hand of God, but become God.
- Eli has enough time to be effective.

I think not enough of those things go right. The lack of pass rush and an aging Eli will cost us a few games that we could've won, ending in a 7-9 season. The rebuild continues in 2020, this time with a new QB.
RE: RE: Not only reasonable but wise  
Brown_Hornet : 7/19/2019 12:35 am : link
In comment 14501622 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
In comment 14501593 Thegratefulhead said:


Quote:


You might be 100% wrong but it does not matter. As someone who has suffered and watched those he loved suffer, I can tell you that living a happy life is the most important thing you can do. Wasting time anticipating potential misery is one of the largest obstacles to a happy life. It is a crime against happiness. Everything is a function of time. Time is the ultimate currency, spend it positively, you do not know how much you have.



There's a difference between anticipating misery and having moderate expectations. Going into a season expecting big things only to be let down sucks too.


Preparing their self to not join the season is far worse than being let down.
7-9 mostly due to defense  
gmenatlarge : 7/19/2019 7:51 am : link
fully expect a repeat of the last two years with the defense being totally unable to protect a lead. This defense is still lacking any kind of impact player at the Linebacker position, it's as if an entire level of the defense is missing at times.
This shit happens every year....  
EricJ : 7/19/2019 7:53 am : link
we convince ourselves that things will be better based upon nothing tangible. Then... we get a pile of shit during the season.

I am not making any predictions until I see this team play on the field during pre-season.
It's the beauty of NFL football  
bigbluehoya : 7/19/2019 8:03 am : link
you can talk yourself into optimism damn near every season, and enter week 1 with a "we could actually do this..." type of mindset.

I haven't been to a game in a few seasons due to kids/family and not being willing to make it a priority given the level of suckage.

But lately I have a hankering for an early season MetLife tailgate in warm, sunny weather. The smells and sounds of that parking lot on a gameday mid-morning are some of the most nostalgia-inducing memories I've banked in my 36 years.
60% of the Line is back  
RollBlue : 7/19/2019 8:29 am : link
unless you thought the line was playing good when Halipio was in there. If Remmers is not that good anymore (better than a 50% chance IMO), then the line has Ziegler over Brown, but lost the one guy on defense that could pressure the passer. Without OBJ, the line's job just got a little harder also.
My favorite NFLN commercial...  
FatMan in Charlotte : 7/19/2019 8:30 am : link
is the one at the start of the season when each team is 0-0 and the fans are still happy and optimistic.

That's the way it should be!!
Their self...  
Brown_Hornet : 7/19/2019 8:37 am : link
…?

- it was late~
I'm optimistic too  
Harvest Blend : 7/19/2019 8:40 am : link
but Shurmur needs to do better.
After seeing multiple times Giants tried ruinning right because  
NephilimGiants : 7/19/2019 9:39 am : link
The defense wrre stacking Will Hernandez... with Zeitler now on the right there is no stopping Saquan....he is going to be a monster this year. With more rest for the defense fir young guys it will help them tremendously. I think our defey is improved from 2016 which was a top 5 defense that had no rest whith a crappy offense. OV, Snacks and JP played over 90percent snaps with a rookie Apple Jenkins and LC in the back they went top 5 so there's reason to believe they will be at least a top 10 this season.

Peppers can do what LC did and more, Golden should be able to take OV roll and I believe Carter will be better then a one handed JPP. Add in all the young potientiel around them.
All we need is a legit ILB and Free Safety then this defense will be Elite
Our offense  
Don in DC : 7/19/2019 10:09 am : link
is going to be solid, maybe even excellent. If our defense can even be mediocre, we can win a bunch of game on this easy schedule.

That's a big if, though. Our secondary is going to be essentially completely new, and very young. Our D-line should be solid, but our LB corps looks to be unremarkable at best.

This could easily be another year in which we lose a lot of games with scores like 31 to 34, or 35 to 38.
I share your optimism  
gmen9892 : 7/19/2019 10:20 am : link
Having said that, I think the expectation should be set to where a 7-9 win season should be considered a success.

I agree about the offensive line improving and you could see the change in philosophy in Shurmur's offense after the Bye Week. He realized his best offensive weapon was Barkley and once he took the air out of the ball and made the Brown change on the OL, the offense looked WAY more functional.

The defense will be the key to how many W's this team can put up. If the secondary grows up fast, it will provide the pass rush with more time to get to the QB. If OX can and Carter progress quickly and Golden rebounds, this defense can be very serviceable. Things look more optimistic if that is the case.

I am predicting a competitive 8-8 season.
RE: I'm optimistic too  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 7/19/2019 10:21 am : link
In comment 14502012 Harvest Blend said:
Quote:
but Shurmur needs to do better.

One good thing about coach milquetoast is he adapts and uses "trick" plays, unlike conservative Coughlin and assclown Mcadoo 11 personnel with a decimated WR corp.

The SB decoy screen to Engram screen is a great tricky play.
I know we could go back into the archives...  
EricJ : 7/19/2019 10:27 am : link
and find posts and threads in July saying how our OL is much improved... then we have one of the worst OL's in football that season.

Just watch pre-season. Dont look at the play designs and whether we are scoring points. (If I see the word Vanilla I am going to start taking hostages) Watch whether our guys are getting beaten physically at the point of attack or whether we are dominating on the line. Both sides of the ball.

THAT will be an indicator as to how this season is going to go.
Bettcher faces a huge challenge  
Alan in Toledo : 7/19/2019 11:42 am : link
to integrate so many young players into a competent, consistent defense.

It's not unreasonable to say the season depends on him.
RE: V.I.G.  
V.I.G. : 7/19/2019 11:43 am : link
In comment 14501783 BillT said:
Quote:
Last year's stats are interesting but I think last year's OL compared to this OL changes all of that. Getting the ball and keeping the ball with Saquon and a competent OL hopefully makes last year's stats just that. Last year's stat's.


Agree - last year's stats are last year's stats. My only point was that we are not just 2pts a game from the playoffs. We need to get leads and hold them. Hopefully this line will get us there with this QB. But i just need to see some evidence.
RE: RE: I'm optimistic too  
NephilimGiants : 7/19/2019 1:46 pm : link
In comment 14502124 Coach Red Beaulieu said:
Quote:
In comment 14502012 Harvest Blend said:


Quote:

Bakers Beal Jenkins and hanskins will be out 3rf and longs then it will be ether 2 of our 3 DL in the middle with Godeln and carter at the edge. Its really a question mark of what Carter Ximines and Golden can do

but Shurmur needs to do better.


One good thing about coach milquetoast is he adapts and uses "trick" plays, unlike conservative Coughlin and assclown Mcadoo 11 personnel with a decimated WR corp.

The SB decoy screen to Engram screen is a great tricky play.
RE: RE: RE: I'm optimistic too  
NephilimGiants : 7/19/2019 1:46 pm : link
In comment 14502400 NephilimGiants said:
Quote:
In comment 14502124 Coach Red Beaulieu said:




Bakers Beal Jenkins and hanskins will be out 3rf and longs then it will be ether 2 of our 3 DL in the middle with Godeln and carter at the edge. Its really a question mark of what Carter Ximines and Golden can do

but Shurmur needs to do better.


One good thing about coach milquetoast is he adapts and uses "trick" plays, unlike conservative Coughlin and assclown Mcadoo 11 personnel with a decimated WR corp.

The SB decoy screen to Engram screen is a great tricky play.

RE: RE: RE: RE: I'm optimistic too  
NephilimGiants : 7/19/2019 1:48 pm : link




Bakers Beal Jenkins and hanskins will be out 3rf and longs then it will be ether 2 of our 3 DL in the middle with Godeln and carter at the edge. Its really a question mark of what Carter Ximines and Golden can do

but Shurmur needs to do better.


One good thing about coach milquetoast is he adapts and uses "trick" plays, unlike conservative Coughlin and assclown Mcadoo 11 personnel with a decimated WR corp.

The SB decoy screen to Engram screen is a great tricky play.



My bad, laerning the temple to quote

RE: Not only reasonable but wise  
Percy : 7/21/2019 9:43 pm : link
In comment 14501593 Thegratefulhead said:
Quote:
You might be 100% wrong but it does not matter. As someone who has suffered and watched those he loved suffer, I can tell you that living a happy life is the most important thing you can do. Wasting time anticipating potential misery is one of the largest obstacles to a happy life. It is a crime against happiness. Everything is a function of time. Time is the ultimate currency, spend it positively, you do not know how much you have.


This is too wise for this board. And much bigger than football.
RE: RE: Not only reasonable but wise  
BlueLou'sBack : 7/22/2019 1:29 am : link
In comment 14503425 Percy said:
Quote:
In comment 14501593 Thegratefulhead said:


Quote:


You might be 100% wrong but it does not matter. As someone who has suffered and watched those he loved suffer, I can tell you that living a happy life is the most important thing you can do. Wasting time anticipating potential misery is one of the largest obstacles to a happy life. It is a crime against happiness. Everything is a function of time. Time is the ultimate currency, spend it positively, you do not know how much you have.



This is too wise for this board. And much bigger than football.


35-40 years ago I was a subscriber to The New Yorker and one issue contained a beautiful epic poem by a writer I had never heard of before, about Time. It was funny as all get out, as it described the misadventures of the poem's protagonist as he followed a miscast seer over mountains, through dale, woods, and freezing cold lakes, and eventually led to some race horse winning the Irish Sweepstakes against all odds. Or perhaps losing, I don't recall exactly.

If I can push myself to find it again, I'll let you know the author's name and where to find it. I think you'd dig it. It has a very nice line or six about the precious nature of Time. IIRC, the whole poem builds to that stanza.
I expect the offense to be better, more consistent  
JonC : 7/25/2019 2:07 pm : link
The big questions are the health of Remmers and Halapio, and can Shurmur distribute the ball enough to replace the vertical production of OB. This is where he shined with the Vikes two seasons ago and earned this shot with NYG.

There will be many shootouts this season.
RE: RE: Not only reasonable but wise  
Thegratefulhead : 7/25/2019 2:14 pm : link
In comment 14503425 Percy said:
Quote:
In comment 14501593 Thegratefulhead said:


Quote:


You might be 100% wrong but it does not matter. As someone who has suffered and watched those he loved suffer, I can tell you that living a happy life is the most important thing you can do. Wasting time anticipating potential misery is one of the largest obstacles to a happy life. It is a crime against happiness. Everything is a function of time. Time is the ultimate currency, spend it positively, you do not know how much you have.



This is too wise for this board. And much bigger than football.
Thank you. I learned than lesson dearly and I pass it on freely. It comforts me when someone really hears it. Thank you, have a fantastic day.
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