NFT: Did Bryce Harper live up to the hype?

But 2012-13 he certainly exceeded (+2015 as you pointed out). Top 30 in WAR as a 19-20 year old is exceptional.

Beyond those 3 years though, he's definitely been a disappointment.

identified at age 16 as a phenom and he ends up becoming an MVP in the future, I'd say he's lived up to the hype.

Now has he become an all-time great and looked at as a transformational player? No. But the number of 16 year olds who are called the next great player who never make it out of the minor leagues is pretty high.

I don't quite know why he's plateaued, or even regressed, as he's entering what should be his prime years as a hitter (statistically, most hitters produce their best from age 26-31).

Howard gracing an SI cover, albeit the top right part.

But he’s entering what should be his prime right now.

He’s been an extremely productive/valuable player. Unless a guy calls himself the next Mickey Mantle, I try not to hold him too closely accountable to the expectations that others place on him.

What’s that, 33 WAR and not even 27 yet? If he’s not right on track for the HoF, he’s not missing by much.

if a bunch of bitchy dudes in MLB didn't start winging fastballs at his head as soon as he entered the league.

I guess it's wrong of fans to lay heavy expectations on a teenager. But that's the way it's been and the way it will likely continue to be.

and definitely a scary good hitter at times, but I just remember how Harper + Strasburg was supposed to change the league. Harper in particular was just hyped non-stop.

It's just weird because he's clearly got the talent but just isn't consistent. It's not like he'as a Trent Richardson type who just wasn't good. It's more like if Reggie Bush had one OPOY type of season on top of the rest of his career, does that alone mean he lived up to the hype?

There's no right answer since it's about expectations. But Harper's career just feels weird to me.

he's a great player. Not worth his contract but that's a different argument. Hype is something I don't really subscribe to that much, mostly because its usually ridiculous and unattainable. For all the flameouts that there have been Harper isn't one of them.

His career arc has been very strange.

You've seen the player he was billed as - his 2015 campaign was elite. That was a phenomenal season for him and that's the guy most people envisioned when he first came up.

His 2017 was about 50 games short, but he was again outstanding that year.

But then you look at the other seasons, and he's merely a "very good" player. Not elite. Not generational. Not special.

He's hard to figure out.

Mike Trout is an elite player year in and year out. He's consistently incredible. Harper hasn't been that.

In terms of fWAR, Harper is just barely cracking the top 50 right now. He's nowhere near the best player in baseball - nowhere near the best player in the NL.

If I had to answer the question posed in the title right now? I have to say no. He hasn't lived up to the hype.

Can he still live up to it? Absolutely! He has a long career ahead of him and he might take off at some point and put up a handful of seasons where he just absolutely mashes - but as it stands right now, he really hasn't lived up to the hype and he's not living up to his contract in Philadelphia either.

because the hype was absurd.

He's obviously a very talented offensive player. Defensively he's average at best (he was considered a very interesting catcher prospect at one point). But there just hasn't been the YoY consistency.

In Harper's defense - to a degree - he was having a great 2017 season until he ripped up his led running out a grounder. So that year his WAR is underrated...

at the same time. The only player I've ever seen who can touch Mike Trout is Barry Bonds. Harper could have been the player he was hyped to be and that still would only put him in the conversation with Trout.

It's a damned shame Trout is going to spend his foreseeable future with the suckass Angels. Total waste of a singular talent.

By defense ( a very subjective measure by the way!!)

If you look at his numbers they don’t show the affect he has. He is only making 25 million a year which isn’t absurd. His hustle and attitude have been awesome this year and he is still one of the best hitters in baseball with guys on.

Still an awesome signing by the Phils and I’m glad they did it.

To his contract. He had a bad spell in June but they are at least 5 games worse without him.

In comment 14502240 dep026 said:

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To his contract. He had a bad spell in June but they are at least 5 games worse without him.

The Phillies are a 3rd place team right now and only like 4 games better than the Mets. If the season ended today, the Phillies are watching the postseason from home.

He's not making enough of a difference.

They were 54-42 through 96 games last year.

They're 49-47 through 96 games this year.

Not worth the money right now.

Can that change? Again, yes. It's been just over a half a season. But even if you remove the defensive metrics, he's still not even a top 20 player in the NL offensively.

Heck, he's not even the best offensive player on his own team right now. Hoskins is.

Is more on pitching and coaching. Again. Team success should not be predicated one on player. The pitching has been horrendous and Kapler has been worse. Bullpen is one of the worst in baseball.

Again, his numbers with runners on are among the best in baseball. I don’t like his approach with no one on, but he is one of the few on the Phillies that actually gives a damn.

He's got to do a lot more than "give a damn" to be worth 300 million dollars, buddy.

Value-wise, it's not there right now.

Matters less in baseball where there's no cap, but in terms of cost to production - Harper is likely very, very low on the list of MLB players.

There are guys making a lot less than him and having much better seasons.

If the Phillies have so many issues with pitching, perhaps their offseason spending should have been targeted more in that direction.

Harper was a splash signing who hasn't made enough of a splash.

For comparison's sake, Gio Urshela is hitting .301/.350/470

This is going nowhere.

I’ll say is this. Out of the 25 players in the active roster - he comes in about 24th or 25th on the reason the team is underperforming.

In comment 14502273 Greg from LI said:

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For comparison's sake, Gio Urshela is hitting .301/.350/470

Stats don’t tell the whole story.

He’s hitting over .400 with RISP and .370 with men on base.

Look, it's ok to admit Harper hasn't quite lived up to expectations. Doesn't make him a bad player, just makes him overpaid at the moment.

Glad the Yanks passed.

In comment 14502274 dep026 said:

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This is going nowhere. I’ll say is this. Out of the 25 players in the active roster - he comes in about 24th or 25th on the reason the team is underperforming.

That's fine - but that doesn't make him a good or smart signing.

The value simply isn't there right now. I have no idea how you could argue otherwise. I don't think this was the type of season the Phillies envisioned having with him thus far... they've now fallen behind the team that let him walk.

I'm not saying Bryce Harper is a bad player, having a bad year... none of that.

What I am saying is that for a guy making nearly 30 million dollars this year; he's gonna have to be a bit better than this for it to have been worth the money.

I think I personally just don't love these baseball megadeals because of how often they don't work out. The contract is very difficult to move. Heck, Brian Cashman would probably love to just get rid of Stanton's at this point. And I have nothing against Giancarlo and would love to see him back as soon as he can get back... but look at what NYY have been able to do without him.

Do they really need him at that cost? Probably not...

In comment 14502285 Greg from LI said:

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Look, it's ok to admit Harper hasn't quite lived up to expectations. Doesn't make him a bad player, just makes him overpaid at the moment.

If he’s overpaid, it’s not by much. Looking at a stat line doesn’t show impact a player brings. He has holes no doubt, but outside maybe a few more homers - he has given everything I wanted as a fan. Investment was well worth it.

They are still in the playoff hunt because of him. The reason the Nats are better is simple...

Strasburg
Scherzer
Corbin

Are performing so much better than the top 3 Phillies pitchers and Doolittle is better than Neris. Without Harper the Phillies are much much much worse.

The rest of the teams failures are due because of everyone else they counted on. I mean Nola has regressed and Arrieta is terrible and Pivetta? Don’t get me started.

Watching Harper play every day has been a pleasure and I’m glad they signed him.

would = under-performing the contract by a pretty substantial amount.

Having said that, it's a perfectly reasonable stance to remain comfortable with the player/deal going forward. My guess is that for the next 5-7 years he's more of a 135-145 wRc+ player than that 120 he's been so far in 2019.

In comment 14502302 dep026 said:

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They are still in the playoff hunt because of him. The reason the Nats are better is simple... Strasburg Scherzer Corbin Are performing so much better than the top 3 Phillies pitchers and Doolittle is better than Neris. Without Harper the Phillies are much much much worse. The rest of the teams failures are due because of everyone else they counted on. I mean Nola has regressed and Arrieta is terrible and Pivetta? Don’t get me started. Watching Harper play every day has been a pleasure and I’m glad they signed him.

Philly doesn't have a pitcher anywhere near Scherzer or Strasburg. Aaron Nola is the closest but he needs to put up another year or two of ace-level pitching before he's considered near that level. The Cubs got the best of Arrieta before his inevitable downturn

In comment 14502302 dep026 said:

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They are still in the playoff hunt because of him. The reason the Nats are better is simple... Strasburg Scherzer Corbin Are performing so much better than the top 3 Phillies pitchers and Doolittle is better than Neris. Without Harper the Phillies are much much much worse. The rest of the teams failures are due because of everyone else they counted on. I mean Nola has regressed and Arrieta is terrible and Pivetta? Don’t get me started. Watching Harper play every day has been a pleasure and I’m glad they signed him.

Patrick Corbin was a FA... the Phillies could have outbid Washington for him if pitching was such a major issue.

for the Nats, either.

He did play 19 games with a 315/487/802. His BA was .211, 5 HRs, and 10 RBIs.

Not the greatest sample size, but not just a handful of games either...

In comment 14502320 arcarsenal said:

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In comment 14502302 dep026 said: Quote: They are still in the playoff hunt because of him. The reason the Nats are better is simple... Strasburg Scherzer Corbin Are performing so much better than the top 3 Phillies pitchers and Doolittle is better than Neris. Without Harper the Phillies are much much much worse. The rest of the teams failures are due because of everyone else they counted on. I mean Nola has regressed and Arrieta is terrible and Pivetta? Don’t get me started. Watching Harper play every day has been a pleasure and I’m glad they signed him. Patrick Corbin was a FA... the Phillies could have outbid Washington for him if pitching was such a major issue.

They did offer him. But that’s not Harpers fault either. Again the ineptitude of Klentak and thinking this staff was good enough to win. The Phillies has a ton of money to throw around and they went with the hitting side.

But again, anyone who has seen the Phillies play all year knows Harper has been such a massive upgrade to what they have produced. It’s the FO job to surround him with better pitching and most importantly coaching.

None of it is Harper's fault directly - he took the best deal he could get and cashed in.

I just personally don't think Harper's performance this far has provided an acceptable ROI - he's not even the best player on his own team.

I'm not enamored with WAR because of the defensive discrepancies - but even by that measure, Harper is actually still a tick behind McCutchen... who has been hurt for weeks.

Realmuto has been a much better investment.

Many Phillies fan would easily disagree. Realmuto is a beast defensively but the staff is worse than last year. And his hitting has been a major disappointment.

In comment 14502343 dep026 said:

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Many Phillies fan would easily disagree. Realmuto is a beast defensively but the staff is worse than last year. And his hitting has been a major disappointment.

Absolutely.

Grandal is the only catcher in baseball with a higher fWAR than Realmuto.

He's making less than 6 million dollars.

And his hitting should only be disappointing to people who never watched him play. He's basically having a career average year offensively. This is what he is.

Mike Trout is Mike Trout.

In comment 14502320 arcarsenal said:

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In comment 14502302 dep026 said: Quote: They are still in the playoff hunt because of him. The reason the Nats are better is simple... Strasburg Scherzer Corbin Are performing so much better than the top 3 Phillies pitchers and Doolittle is better than Neris. Without Harper the Phillies are much much much worse. The rest of the teams failures are due because of everyone else they counted on. I mean Nola has regressed and Arrieta is terrible and Pivetta? Don’t get me started. Watching Harper play every day has been a pleasure and I’m glad they signed him. Patrick Corbin was a FA... the Phillies could have outbid Washington for him if pitching was such a major issue.

That's not exactly fair. The reason you sign him to such a long deal is to build around him as he enters his prime. You don't have to do it all in one year.

The expectations were completely out of whack as soon as he signed. They're a building team...

100 games is far too soon to declare it anything - bad or good or in between. My only arguments are:

1. To date, he hasn't been worth the money. Again, to date. He could go on a monster tear down the stretch and help carry the Phillies to the NLE title. He's capable of it. But he hasn't been that elite, top flight player he's been in the past quite yet.

2. If the Phillies have so many holes in other places, perhaps they'd have been wiser to spend that money differently. They weren't shy about telling everyone how recklessly they wanted to spend this past offseason, so... if pitching is holding them back, they did a poor job of having the foresight to address that before the season. Patrick Corbin or not.

Someone like Lance Lynn would have been a good signing for them and wouldn't have broken the bank. They could have taken a shot on Keuchel or Gio.

OK got that outta the way. He's a good offensive player who is still only 26. While I hope he struggles the rest of his career I doubt that will happen.

Glad the Yanks passed on Harper, as well as on Machado. It's not the most expensive player that "gets it done". Sure, the press loves to hype these guys for the headlines, but when it comes to playing and producing, good scouting, development and shrewd trades and acquisitions make the difference. Very important not to saddle your franchise with albatross deals, limiting future flexibility. Love the job Cashman has done both in acquiring productive players, as well as not giving in to the press hype.

You’re acting like the Phils didn’t have the money to do that as well. They had way more than enough to get Lynn or Kuechel and Kimberly all at once. They aren’t on a budget.

The GM chose not too. He stated Pivetta was an all star quality pitcher. Klentak is an idiot. Signing Harper didn’t restrict the Phillies to make other moves.

and that is very unlikely to happen.

I would say he hasn't certainly lived up to that standard or the type of player he thinks he is. But, he's till going to provide all-star numbers each year, and he does have the talent to have mvp type seasons.

...up at the plate?

Maybe he should be hacking a little more?

In comment 14502534 M.S. said:

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...up at the plate? Maybe he should be hacking a little more?

Trust me that’s not the problem. He doesn’t get cheated when he is up there. He just has a really good eye.

Has he lived up to the hype?

Are either of these two HOF?

In comment 14502564 Rover said:

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Has he lived up to the hype? Are either of these two HOF?

Machado is a better player than Harper. But bringing him into this discussion doesn’t apply because Machado was not heralded on SI as a 16 year old and the next great baseball player...

In comment 14502111 Motley Two said:

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if a bunch of bitchy dudes in MLB didn't start winging fastballs at his head as soon as he entered the league.

Oh please

In comment 14502602 djm said:

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In comment 14502111 Motley Two said: Quote: if a bunch of bitchy dudes in MLB didn't start winging fastballs at his head as soon as he entered the league. Oh please

Oh that didn't happen?
Sure he's a dick, but there were certainly plenty of vets making sure he wasn't going to have a choice in the matter.

He has one season driving in
100 runs, his strike out totals exceed his rbis. In a game where the team that scores the most runs wins, why is he the highest paid player. But his WAR was good once. Explain WAR to me again?

metric, but there are quite a few hall of famers who would probably be disappointed to learn that they failed that apparently important test. Not to mention runaway-best-player-in-the-game Mike Trout. At any rate, Harper's obviously an excellent player, but just as obviously hasn't lived up to the hype of being an epically great player. As others have pointed out, that's a ridiculous bar to set for anyone. And of course, while I think it's unlikely he reaches the consistent greatness to reach the hype, he's still got plenty of time left to come closer.

A lot of the same things could have been said about him before his MVP and final season with the Marlins.


The hype centered around his ability to load up his swing for power so well and balanced at such a young age. The timing of his leg kick and the balance he had when it landed reminds you of some of the greats. He could do it with great movement like Frank Thomas, to someone a bit more average like Alex Rodriguez, to a quieter leg kick like Albert Pujols. His arm strength was awesome, but the ability to load up his swing for power at such a young age was the real deal.

Injuries have slowed him down, but he still hits the ball hard. Pitchers throw him more sliders and changeups, as he pulls the ball more and his fly ball to home run rate is down.

All of that said, the move to the Phillies looks good for him so far. You can see how a lot of Rhys Hoskins has rubbed off on him. He doesn't make as much noise as he used to with the crouch and slight lean towards the back foot to load up on power that he would use to force the issue in years past. I wonder what it could be like if Harper joined up with the elite fly ball hitter Joey Gallo and to see how his swing and approach at the plate evolved.

This is definitely a valley in Bryce Harper's career. He doesn't have much of an argument against the outfielders that made the all-star game, but he has been hitting well the past three weeks, and the Phillies just split four games with the Dodgers.

I'll vote yes. I'm expecting a great second half this year, followed by a huge year next year from him.