The baseball trading deadline is getting closer as July 31st at 4:00 pm approaches. This is the first year we will not be seeing August trades, and fans can’t be sure how GMs will respond to the new deadlines and the moves that will be made in the next several days.
To me, the most intriguing think to watch over the next few days is what happens to Pittsburgh Pirates closer Felipe Vasquez. Vasquez is the National League’s version of Aroldis Chapman. Big lefty that hits 100 mph on his fastball. Vasquez was lights out last year on the lowly Pirates with 37 saves in his 70 innings pitched. This year has been no different. He is an All Star and his ERA is 1.96 and he has struck out 65 batters in his 38 innings pitched.
The Pirates are going nowhere this year. You can say they are only 4.5 games out of a Wild Card slot, but there are just too many teams in front of them that they would have to jump to get a WC slot. So what do they do with Vasquez? Vasquez is 28 years old. In 2018, the Pirates signed Vasquez to a long-term contract. It calls for $4 million in 2019, $5.25 million in 2020, $7.25 million in 2021, and team options for $10 million in each of 2022 and 2023. (Vasquez was Felipe Rivero until 2018. He legally changed his last name following his contract, to match the surname of his sister)
A great player with a great team friendly contract. Will the Pirates trade him?
There are only two teams that could be in the conversation- the Yankees and the Dodgers (perhaps the Astros as well ??).
Similar to teams trading for Chapman or Andrew Miller, it is the final but very expensive chess move in an attempt to lock up a World Series victory. The Yankees and Dodgers (and the Astros) have put together very solid rosters. But Vasquez is the missing piece that would make either team the absolute favorite to win this year’s World Series.
What’s even more intriguing is that it’s the Yankees and Dodgers. The teams with baseballs best records. A few years back, the Dodgers were finalizing an offseason trade for Chapman. Word came out about a domestic situation with Chapman. The Dodgers pulled their trade offer and the Yankees ended up with Chapman at a reduced price.
If the Pirates do agree to move Vasquez, it will cost a lot. What would it cost the Yankees?. Well expect it to be 4 high potential players-even higher than what it cost the Indians and Cubs for Miller and Chapman because of the Vasquez contract and his age. This will be the last year of Francisco Cervelli in Pittsburgh, and a catcher will be highest on the Pirates needs list. Anthony Seigler was the Yankees top draft choice last year and would almost certainly top their wish list. The Yankees have a major decision to make with right handed pitcher Luis Medina. Any scout who has seem him will say he has the best stuff and could truly be a #1 starter. The problem with Medina is control. He has really improved in his last half dozen games at Charleston, but will the Yankees protect him or make him Rule 5 eligible (he would absolutely be taken) after this season. Perhaps a trade is an option. Certainly major league ready Clint Frazier and Thairo Estrada and others could be in the conversation for a player like Vasquez.
I don’t think that the Pirates have a big interest in trading Vasquez. But they will certainly listen to offers. The Dodgers have an outstanding farm system that includes two high end catchers. The Dodgers have lost the World Series the past 2 years and could certainly put together an outstanding offer to interest the Pirates.
For the Yankees, the trade would have an impact beyond 2019- with a contract needed for Betances and the chance (though low) that Chapman could opt out.
The trade deadline will be fascinating this year. Vasquez will cost the most, but he is also worth the most to this year’s strongest teams. Many of the rumored names we have all been hearing about will in fact be traded and should help contending teams. But the one trade that will be the absolute game changer would be the Pirates moving Felipe Vasquez. In the past few years we have seen other game changers at the deadline as Verlander was moved and Chapman was moved.
It will be fun to watch.
Frazier absolutely should be in a trade package for Vasquez. Bird? Andujar? Don't know about making Siegler available. Yanks were not as strong at catcheer last year as they seem to be this year with Sanchez's improvement in all ways, Is it still a position where top flight backup talent beyond Romine is absolutely necessary? Probably is.
But a SP is still the most pressing need.
The Braves are desperate for a closer and they do have the assets but I think they will target a SP as their GM Anthopoulos has spoken numerous times about the risk of trading for relief help due to their volatility.
Compared to Vazquez he wouldn't. Hell even Stroman should cost more than Bumgarner. Stroman is bit more injury prone too. For once I'd rather trade for the guy with a proven playoff track record.
Honestly I am not willing to give up Garcia for anybody, but we aren't getting anybody substantial without him. Pitchers also have a habit of bombing in NY, so a package of tier-2 prospects would be preferable. Cashman will have to pull off another heist if that's the case.
Surprised so many forgot our ace in the hole...
Don't you think that if we as fans can see all these things with Frazier that every team in baseball sees it? This is exactly why the Giants wouldnt make this trade straight up.
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Is the guy to get, he can put them over the top this year, there really is no other pitcher out there that will be available that is worth it. Give them Frazier and be done with it. Frazier has a bad attitude anyway, horrible defender, went down and pouted instead of improving his game, is he above .200 yet, since his demotion, has he blasted home run #2 yet. Do it Cash.
Don't you think that if we as fans can see all these things with Frazier that every team in baseball sees it? This is exactly why the Giants wouldnt make this trade straight up.
Also, after yesterday's 2-3 day with a solo HR, Frazier is now hitting .240/.306/.430.— Was hitting .215/.267/.354 in AAA on July 14
I was kind of against the idea of Bumgarner initially, but I've warmed up to it a little more. Especially if they could swing something that includes Smith. Bumgarner has been pitching better lately. If you take out that really bad one against LAD a few starts back, he's actually been very good over the last month and he's a guy you can absolutely trust in a huge spot.
Of course, the problem is that SF would need to actually determine they're going to be sellers first. They just took 3 of 4 from the Mets and are 14-3 this month. They may want to ride this out now and see if they can find a way in through the Wild Card.
(I think that would be a mistake for them - but that's not going to change anything, obviously)
I do think despite the bullpen being as strong as it is, Cashman is still going to go fishing for another RP.
Carlos Martinez could be an interesting guy to put a call in on. He's closing for StL now with Jordan Hicks out and has been doing it pretty well - but he's also been an all-star caliber starter in the past and has a bit of team control left. I believe he's signed through '21 at a fairly modest 11M per and then has team options in the following 2 years with easy 500k buyouts.
I wouldn't give up a lot for him, but it's just another potential name.
Naehring was sent to watch 2 of his recent starts - but I believe both were against Houston, and he didn't fair particularly well either time.
The market looks like it's not going to be particularly kind to teams looking for SP right now. Any dream of Scherzer is effectively kaput - the Nationals are back in the thick of things and he's on the IL right now anyway.
There's Syndergaard.... but you have to think the Mets would take nothing less than the moon from the Yankees. It would take a heck of a package to have their fanbase potentially be okay with seeing Syndergaard in the Bronx. I'm guessing their ask would just be unrealistic and that the sides wouldn't be able to find a middle ground.
Bauer just doesn't seem like a fit here. The persona won't play in NY and I wouldn't even want to deal with it.
I'm a "pass" on Matt Boyd.
Stroman might be the guy by default.
Robbie Ray is a darkhorse, and I have mixed feelings. If the Rockies decide to move a couple pieces, Jon Gray would be an interesting target. Both would require big packages though.
Robbie Ray has legit strikeout stuff - but he's walking so many batters this year. I worry about a guy we need to "fix" because we have to do it on the fly.
They've said that if ARZ decided to sell; Greinke could actually become available along with Ray. But, I remember years back that NY was basically a no-go for him and that probably hasn't changed. Which is a shame - because although he's making some hefty money, he's performing extremely well and is the type of pitcher who is aging pretty gracefully.
I don't think a lot of people realize that Greinke has had almost an identical career to Verlander. But yeah - probably not an option for us regardless of whether or not he's made available.
Gray is an interesting name. That's one I hadn't really heard yet.
I've been the high man on Boyd in these parts from what I've seen (though I've intentionally been reading and posting less on NYY threads in the past few weeks). But the reported asks from Avila to multiple teams are bad enough that I'd hang up and not call back.
Minor isn't super interesting to me. Nice ERA, but FIP over 4 and xFIP near 4.4, both of while are much closer to his career numbers than the current 2-handle ERA. Batted ball profile mostly balanced, but it leans fly ball if anything. Spin-rate stuff does show his fastball favorably, but it's still a very low 90s offering. Not that I think he sucks, but he means nothing to me in terms of the October outlook. He would add some stability from now until then, which would be welcomed.
I still think Wheeler would be a worthwhile add if he looks healthy in his return start on Friday. To me, looks to possibly be the best mix of stuff/upside and expected cost, thanks to the recent injury uncertainty. But then again, I can't get past thinking that the Mets will have some silly level Yankee tax in the price that will prevent it from happening.
SF run is fools gold, 9 of 10 beating the rockies, padres, and mets. They also have one of the worst starting rotations in the league. I doubt the GM sees that though, especially in the court of public opinion from their fan's perspective. I can see them standing pat which is probably the worst decision possible for their long term success. But if they are serious about a wildcard, they desperately need to trade for a starter which will kill their already thin prospect depth.
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is that they sell a couple relievers but keep MadBum. Maybe, just maybe, they stay competitive and even win a wildcard outright. But even if they don't, they're going to move a lot more tickets and merchandise in the meantime. MadBum is a pure rental, better of late but still well off of his peak performance. Is he going to get an ace return? I just don't see it. GMs are largely too savvy for that, and the ones who aren't that savvy aren't running winners right now. A middling package is probably worth less to them than MadBum is between now and the end of the season.
SF run is fools gold, 9 of 10 beating the rockies, padres, and mets. They also have one of the worst starting rotations in the league. I doubt the GM sees that though, especially in the court of public opinion from their fan's perspective. I can see them standing pat which is probably the worst decision possible for their long term success. But if they are serious about a wildcard, they desperately need to trade for a starter which will kill their already thin prospect depth.
I think Sabean / Zaidi are sharp guys. I think they know that selling off MadBum and the bullpen guys is what's truly the most expedient path to winning again. The posture that they're taking right now is that the offers need to be good in order for them to do it, or they'll just hold and compete. Their recent win streak has done them a big favor in making that a believable stance.
I hear the point, but I think there's a lot of yardage between Tatis/Acuna and Abreu/Thairo. Something like Frazier + Thairo or is the type of thing that I think ownership would have to really consider. We're talking about an unrestricted free agent, franchise player or not.
If I'm a Giants fan, I actually want them to be moving Bum in the next week. And if they're not, I want a contract done by then.
But yeah, if I was in charge of the team I'd have sold in the offseason.