NFT: Yankees trade deadline discussion

Robbie Ray will be alright. He walked FIVE per 9 innings last year (atrocious). He’s lowered that to 4 BB/9 IP this year. Still bad but you can live with it given his 12 K/9 rate.

major Yankee assets are going to be moved, I would prefer a lights out reliever over a middle of the road starter.

We all know the Yankees need another starter. But there just doesn't seem to be a starter available that is a hands down absolute starter once the playoffs begin.

Obviously that's something the Yankees value highly. But the walk/home run rates are alarming and I just worry about bringing in another lefty when our main rivals are stocked with right handed bats. And I just worry about our ability to correct those flaws he does have. Our track record has been spotty in that area lately.

I think Frazier for Ray sounds about right. I wouldn't put much more in the deal though given the 1.5 years of control on Ray. Getting Ray is better than doing nothing, but I have my concerns.

It's actually gotten to the point where I'm beginning to talk myself into Trevor Bauer. We're getting desperate!

We need a starter and a reliever; and I fully expect Cashman to acquire both.

The importance of the bullpen is still tied to the starting pitching. Even if you go out and add a reliever, we're still having too much trouble getting length out of the starters and need them to get a little deeper into games.

Otherwise, we're going to be really roasting our bullpen over the next 2 months and won't have them fresh when we really need it.

Bauer is the pitcher I really want - but not the person.

I'm really stuck on that one. He's a douchebag but I kind of like the fire and competitiveness and feel like it might play well here given where we're at in the season and that it's getting close to the time to turn on the jets and get serious about a championship run.

For a short-term thing, he might be fine here. Long-term, that's where we'd probably undoubtedly run into problems - and as we know with Bauer, long-term isn't in his vocabulary so it's a non-issue.

would be hilarious. One of those “it’s so crazy it just might work” moves.

If he'd promise to deactivate his twitter account, I'd pay the price to bring in Bauer

Lol, if he'd agree to that - sign me up!

In comment 14512634 Kyle in NY said:

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Obviously that's something the Yankees value highly. But the walk/home run rates are alarming and I just worry about bringing in another lefty when our main rivals are stocked with right handed bats. And I just worry about our ability to correct those flaws he does have. Our track record has been spotty in that area lately. I think Frazier for Ray sounds about right. I wouldn't put much more in the deal though given the 1.5 years of control on Ray. Getting Ray is better than doing nothing, but I have my concerns. It's actually gotten to the point where I'm beginning to talk myself into Trevor Bauer. We're getting desperate!

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That's the appeal to the Yanks with what's left out there.
His strikeout percentage is what they like about him.
We all know they love power arms, although his control can be shaky.

“Indians are increasingly unlikely to trade Trevor Bauer. Word is, ownership is reluctant to part with a big star with team in position to make playoffs and possibly even win division again.”

I guess it’s Robbie Ray or bust?

It just seems like they love to go for the guy with the big arm, or the great spin rate, but with a few corrections that need to be made. And then they just can't seem to fix those flaws, and we chalk it up to the pressure of pitching in New York. They've proven much better at fixing hitters than they have at fixing pitchers.

Ray is better than nothing. But it feels like we're trying to thread the needle again after missing out on more proven options either due to money or prospect demands.

In comment 14512712 Kyle in NY said:

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It just seems like they love to go for the guy with the big arm, or the great spin rate, but with a few corrections that need to be made. And then they just can't seem to fix those flaws, and we chalk it up to the pressure of pitching in New York. They've proven much better at fixing hitters than they have at fixing pitchers. Ray is better than nothing. But it feels like we're trying to thread the needle again after missing out on more proven options either due to money or prospect demands.

Well if Bauer and MadBum aren't on the market, Greinke won't come to NY then what exactly is better on the market? Stroman? Him and Ray are pretty comparable.

It's a tough market for the Yankees to navigate. If the Mets continue to refuse to deal with them, there aren't many places to turn. Like I said, Ray is better than coming away empty handed. But past misses are coming back to bite us here.

In comment 14512741 Stu11 said:

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In comment 14512712 Kyle in NY said: Quote: It just seems like they love to go for the guy with the big arm, or the great spin rate, but with a few corrections that need to be made. And then they just can't seem to fix those flaws, and we chalk it up to the pressure of pitching in New York. They've proven much better at fixing hitters than they have at fixing pitchers. Ray is better than nothing. But it feels like we're trying to thread the needle again after missing out on more proven options either due to money or prospect demands. Well if Bauer and MadBum aren't on the market, Greinke won't come to NY then what exactly is better on the market? Stroman? Him and Ray are pretty comparable.

The difference between Stroman and Ray is profile, right? My understanding of Stroman is he was a groundball machine.

Ray is a BB/K/Fly-ball pitcher (only 38% groundballs, compared to Stroman's 56%.)

Ray's BB/K thing also seems like a recipe for high-pitch-counts. Do the Yanks need another 100-pitches in the 5th inning type of guy?

career numbers for Ray and Stroman are pretty similar. But they go about it in very different ways. Reports indicate the Yankees weren't as high on Stroman as we may have thought, likely because of that profile. I don't necessarily agree. I think he's the exact type of pitcher we should be going after in today's homer happy environment, along with the improvements to infield defense we've made.

But that ship has obviously sailed.

In comment 14512753 wigs in nyc said:

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In comment 14512741 Stu11 said: Quote: In comment 14512712 Kyle in NY said: Quote: It just seems like they love to go for the guy with the big arm, or the great spin rate, but with a few corrections that need to be made. And then they just can't seem to fix those flaws, and we chalk it up to the pressure of pitching in New York. They've proven much better at fixing hitters than they have at fixing pitchers. Ray is better than nothing. But it feels like we're trying to thread the needle again after missing out on more proven options either due to money or prospect demands. Well if Bauer and MadBum aren't on the market, Greinke won't come to NY then what exactly is better on the market? Stroman? Him and Ray are pretty comparable. The difference between Stroman and Ray is profile, right? My understanding of Stroman is he was a groundball machine. Ray is a BB/K/Fly-ball pitcher (only 38% groundballs, compared to Stroman's 56%.) Ray's BB/K thing also seems like a recipe for high-pitch-counts. Do the Yanks need another 100-pitches in the 5th inning type of guy?

Yep, they’re basically complete opposites. Ray is usually good for 6 innings. In his last 11 starts he’s gone less than 6 innings only once. He’s walked only 4 batters in his last 4 starts which is encouraging since that’s been his Achilles heel.

And to me, the advantage to Stroman is that he has pitched his entire career in the AL East, and done well. This division chews pitchers up and spits them out, and as Kyle noted the Yankees have shown no ability to iron out the flaws in these big arm/high K projects they so love.

I like him, but he seems like the guy you get in the off-season, where then you can work with him before the season. Seems to be a huge gamble at the deadline, thinking you could fix some of his flaws on the run.

at best a second starter. Whatever.

are the quintessential project pitchers that pitching coaches and analytics departments are convinced they can fix. Maybe they can, and as-is they'd be fine (Bradley as a middle innings guy who, when he's on, can handle leverage; Ray as a guy who gives you 5-6 IP of 3-4 run ball), but I wouldn't give up the cream of the prospect crop in the hope that you can make them something better than that

Trevor Baur - 6.51
Mike Minor - 6.43
Zack Greinke - 6.41
Lance Lynn - 6.41
Noah Syndergaard - 6.31
Zack Wheeler - 6.21
Matt Boyd - 6.00
Marcus Stroman - 5.91
Caleb Smith - 5.71
Robbie Ray - 5.61
Tanner Roark - 5.35

in comparison:
James Paxton - 4.96
JA Happ - 5.16
CC Sabathia - 5.30
Domingo German - 5.58
Masahiro Tanaka - 5.71


We need someone who will give us more innings.

In comment Heisenberg said:

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at best a second starter. Whatever.

Happ's days as a potential number 2 starter seem to be far gone at this point.

Robbie Ray has gone 6 or more IP in 10 of his last 11 starts, stretching back to June 3rd. Interestingly, he's allowed 1 or more HRs in all 11 of those games (18 total), after allowing just 5 in his first 12 starts

put it in a bottle, and then open it up and sniff it if you're ever inclined to complain about the potential of what years 5-6 could look like in a FA deal for a pitcher like Patrick Corbin.

In comment 14512807 Blue Ninja said:

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Trevor Baur - 6.51 Mike Minor - 6.43 Zack Greinke - 6.41 Lance Lynn - 6.41 Noah Syndergaard - 6.31 Zack Wheeler - 6.21 Matt Boyd - 6.00 Marcus Stroman - 5.91 Caleb Smith - 5.71 Robbie Ray - 5.61 Tanner Roark - 5.35 in comparison: James Paxton - 4.96 JA Happ - 5.16 CC Sabathia - 5.30 Domingo German - 5.58 Masahiro Tanaka - 5.71 We need someone who will give us more innings.

Caleb Smith and Lynn, what the hell rothschild

while Lynn pitched about as well in the regular season for NYY last year as he's pitching now.

between MLB insiders and NBA insiders, never more clear than the past couple of months. Rosenthal and Passan have great track records, and guys like Olney, Sherman and Heyman are very solid for the most part. The NBA guys are garbage, except for Woj.

In comment 14512813 Dunedin81 said:

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Robbie Ray has gone 6 or more IP in 10 of his last 11 starts, stretching back to June 3rd. Interestingly, he's allowed 1 or more HRs in all 11 of those games (18 total), after allowing just 5 in his first 12 starts

He's allowed under 5 ER in all of his starts except for two this year (and in those two he allowed exactly 5 ER). Not an impressive stat until you consider how the Yankees starters have fared recently.

/

but he's not a Chris Broussard-level fool. Definitely some duds - including Nightengale and Bowden - but overall the MLB guys are more professional. Can't stand the basketball guys, or the football guys outside of Glazer.

to Heyman on the radio.

He was asked if he was the Yankees, would he be willing to give up Hicks, Frazier, and Garcia for Syndergaard. He thought about it and then said YES, though he said he would be concerned about the Yankees centerfield position.

You have got to be kidding. Glad he is not running the Yankees. These guys are more about clicks, then reality.

That doesn't mean he isn't a good pitcher, but people talk about him like he's up there with Scherzer or something. He's not, and he hasn't been the same since his injury. I'd give up a ton for deGrom, but not Syndergaard.

In comment 14512857 Greg from LI said:

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That doesn't mean he isn't a good pitcher, but people talk about him like he's up there with Scherzer or something. He's not, and he hasn't been the same since his injury. I'd give up a ton for deGrom, but not Syndergaard.

Guys somehow become better pitchers with more years of control, at least that's how much of the media seems to see it. See Boyd, Matthew.

Boras remains his biggest "source", especially during contract negotiation time. He's not as plugged in to FOs. Sherman ebbs and flows, at times he is the most plugged in and at times he's better at following behind (how and why something happened) than he is at breaking things.

In comment 14512816 bigbluehoya said:

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put it in a bottle, and then open it up and sniff it if you're ever inclined to complain about the potential of what years 5-6 could look like in a FA deal for a pitcher like Patrick Corbin.

Yup. We were in lock step on this one over the winter. Don't get it.

but he's nowhere near what he was a few years ago. As always, pitching coaches (and now analytics guys) think that they can get a 27 year old back to what he once was, but it's still a gamble.

I even echoed it. Still....given how a good pitcher like Paxton has collapsed here, who knows if Corbin would have been the same as he's been?

In comment 14512871 Greg from LI said:

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I even echoed it. Still....given how a good pitcher like Paxton has collapsed here, who knows if Corbin would have been the same as he's been?

This is how I feel too. Imagine if Corbin signed for 6 years and pitched like Gray or Paxton in year 1? Yikes...

In comment 14512857 Greg from LI said:

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That doesn't mean he isn't a good pitcher, but people talk about him like he's up there with Scherzer or something. He's not, and he hasn't been the same since his injury. I'd give up a ton for deGrom, but not Syndergaard.

oddly enough, Scherzer compiled just over 10 WAR through his age 27 season. Syndergaard is currently over 17.

Means nothing other than to highlight that age 26-27 is in many cases the time when pitchers really put it all together and hit their prime.

Part of the allure with NS is that we've seen some pretty protracted stretches of elite stuff, and yet it somehow feels like he hasn't peaked and is only turning 27 in a month.

.

I think it's easy to feel like Cashman might have screwed the pooch on the pitching - but we have to remember that Severino's injury was completely unexpected. He was slated to pitch in ST as usual and felt something and that was that - he hasn't pitched since.

On top of that, Paxton's knee is either not right or he's just having a year that doesn't match up with the pitcher he's been before it.

If Severino isn't injured and Paxton is pitching to his career numbers - are we even worried about acquiring a starter at all?

We're probably talking about a reliever and that's that.

In retrospect, now missing on Corbin seems magnified - but he may well not have pitched the same way here; and really who the heck knows. He could have wound up just as disappointing as Paxton's been so far. No way to know.

Bottom line is that we are where we are now and we need a starter.

If it's Robbie Ray - so be it. We could do worse.

If guys like Tanaka and Paxton don't pitch better, none of it will matter anyway.

Requires evaluating if his effectiveness wanes rapidly after 6 innings.

Means taking him requires another bullpen arm.

I dunno guys. How many teams lose their ace for the season and then post a winning percentage over .600?

Add their #2 from the bullpen.

At the end of the day, those two injuries are the ones that hurt us the most

does not include Deivi Garcia. I've been high on a few of our pitching prospects in the past that have not panned out but Garcia is fun. I'd like to see him fully develop in a Yankees uniform.

I think pitchers struggling 3rd time through the order is just very, very widespread now - it's hard to find guys who don't become exponentially less effective once they get into that 3rd turn.

You're going to have that issue with most anyone right now, which is precisely why the bullpens are as important as they've become.

#Dodgers likely to add a reliever by tomorrow afternoon, as they continue discussions on #Pirates closer Felipe Vazquez and #Tigers closer Shane Greene, among others.

Which is why I assume the analytics department has figured out if his walks and HR rate falls off a cliff after 2x through or ( an ok problem with a full bullpen) so his season totals are because the Diamond Backs don't have bullpen depth and therefore require him to go longer than the point of diminishing returns.

I have no idea. All I know is that the Yankees will have scrubbed the data before they pull the trigger

The #Indians, an AL-best 17-5 this month, have played well enough that they're exploring short-term offensive upgrades. One name they've considered, according to a source: Nicholas Castellanos of the division rival #Tigers.

If true, I can't see them moving Bauer.

6th best ERA, 2nd best FIP since his debut in 2015.

He's definitely the guy you give up a lot for.

Rosenthal suggesting Thor may be on the move

notes:

Scranton is playing this afternoon. Clint Frazier is in the line up. Just robbed of a sure double.

The Yankees game tomorrow is at the Stadium and is an afternoon game that will likely be ending at the same time as the trade deadline hits.

The scheduled pitcher for Arizona in tomorrow's afternoon game is Zack Greinke.

This Saturday the Yankees have a day/night doubleheader against the Red Sox at the Stadium. With Michael Kay still out, the YES Network is having Bob Costas do the play by play for one of those games.