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What's a Good Statistical Year for Manning

christian : 8/6/2019 12:56 pm
Despite the tough year for the team, really bad line and running game the first half of the year, and primary guys missing time Manning had a fine statistical year.

Second most completions of his career (380), highest % (66%), 4th most yards (4299), 3rd fewest ints (11), 4th highest passer rating (92.4).

Assuming he plays all 16 -- what would a good year look like this year?

(And for all the stats are for losers guys, good news, you can ignore this thread because it's about stats!)
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RE: ELI.  
bw in dc : 8/6/2019 3:52 pm : link
In comment 14520476 x meadowlander said:
Quote:
2013 57.5%, 3818 yds, 18 TD, 27 Int, 39 Sck, QBR 69.4
2014 63.4%, 4410 yds, 30 TD, 14 Int, 28 Sck, QBR 92.1
2015 62.6%, 4432 yds, 35 TD, 14 Int, 27 Sck, QBR 93.6
2016 63.0%, 4027 yds, 26 TD, 16 Int, 21 Sck, QBR 86.0
2017 61.6%, 3468 yds, 19 TD, 13 Int, 31 Sck, QBR 80.4
2018 66.0%, 4299 yds, 21 TD, 11 Int, 47 Sck, QBR 92.4

Folks, Eli Manning is NOT a bum by any stretch.

Based on those numbers, using my rose-colored preseason glasses and a better OL than ANY above season:

2019 68.0%, 4000+ yds, 23 TD, 10 Int,


Really...68%? All-time high at 38 with no #1 receiver...interesting.
RE: Actually, not purely....  
BillKo : 8/6/2019 3:57 pm : link
In comment 14520482 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
but the deep ball aspect, definitely. That disappeared in 2016.


It absolutely did............Mac took complete control of the offense and wanted it framed in his style completely.

Big failure. He wasn't ready for the role of HC.

In 2014/2015 we were pushing it deep and still throwing back shoulder passes...............
RE: RE: Iím not a stat guy in the main, but christian specifically  
Big Blue '56 : 8/6/2019 3:57 pm : link
In comment 14520478 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 14520437 Big Blue '56 said:


Quote:


asked for Eliís numbers. If he wanted anything else he would have said something like, ďwhat do you feel the teamís record will be with Eli at tge helm.Ē

Of course the W-L record is all that matters, at least to me (more specifically, making the playoffs despite what the regular season record will be)..Thatís not what christianís asking, imv..:)



I think over a 16 game season, things even out at you can get a good sense if a guy still belongs in the NFL, based on his statistical performance.

If Barkley absolutely just carries the team and the defense has a big turnaround, maybe the Giants get into the tournament. But would the Giants offer a new contract to a guy who didn't have a good year at QB?


If he just ďmanagedĒ the team and no real input in the playoffs, the no
Look at Manning's stats from 2008.  
Britt in VA : 8/6/2019 3:59 pm : link
One of our most dominant offensive performances, and what should have been a Superbowl campaign.

We offense was predicated on the run that year. We are built to do that again, potentially.
We need a team performance....  
Britt in VA : 8/6/2019 4:01 pm : link
much more than we need a carry on the back performance from the QB.
Same for Jones.  
Britt in VA : 8/6/2019 4:01 pm : link
.
I don't think Eli will get a lot of TD passes  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 8/6/2019 4:13 pm : link
Too tempting to run with SB on short and goal and heck Eli might get some on goal and inches. Still doesn't have a bona fide X receiver or big bodied TE. Lattimer is interesting, has shown his speed and strength on go route TDs, but don't seem to be a real redzone threat.

And that's fine of course, but might trigger the fantasy morons who will declared Eli a bottom third QB.
We may have lost Odell....  
Britt in VA : 8/6/2019 4:22 pm : link
but here's the thing. I remember Manning being at his finest when he was able to just read the coverage, go through his progressions, and find the open guy.

We saw a lot of plug and play guys come through here through the years and he was able to stay successful when he did that. Guys like Boss, Ballard, Steve Smith, Hixon, Bear Pascoe, Hynoski, etc....

If you give Manning time to go through his progressions, he will find the open guy.
And a successful running game....  
Britt in VA : 8/6/2019 4:23 pm : link
only opens all that up, especially if you let him get comfortable again with protection out of a play action fake.
Back to the ops question....  
Britt in VA : 8/6/2019 4:24 pm : link
here's a different take.

I don't expect Manning to have career numbers, I'm sure his numbers will fall somewhere in the averages they've always fallen in.

I just want efficient numbers. Low INT's, good completion percentage, and hitting on deep throws that are there.
RE: RE: RE: Manning's 2012 numbers look pretty similar to his 2009 numbers.  
Gatorade Dunk : 8/6/2019 4:34 pm : link
In comment 14520479 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
In comment 14520473 Gatorade Dunk said:


Quote:


In comment 14520470 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


Which leads me to believe that perhaps it was more a regression to the mean than a decline.


That's probably fair.

But if you think the offensive scheme in 2014 and 2015 was purely Coughlin's I have to wonder if you watched the games.



I do, and I'll tell you why. We were still pushing the ball down the field. Often.

In 2016, everybody on this site was debating what happened to the deep pass. Why were we throwing only 5 yard patterns on 3rd and 8? Always under the marker. Always.

We also never struggled to reach 20 points in 2014 and 2015. Yet, we struggled under McAdoo with the same personnel.

Something changed.

Eli's average air yards per attempt dropped by over a yard between 2013 and 2014. We may have still been taking shots down the field, but they were definitely less frequent and more calculated. Now maybe Coughlin realized after the dumpster fire that the offense had become in 2013 that some risk aversion was wise, but given how the offense continued to trend in 2016, I think it's naive to assume McAdoo had no input as OC (and it's also silly, IMO, to not assign any blame to Sullivan for the offense's shortcomings in 2016 and 2017).
RE: RE: ELI.  
x meadowlander : 8/6/2019 4:37 pm : link
In comment 14520489 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 14520476 x meadowlander said:


Quote:


2013 57.5%, 3818 yds, 18 TD, 27 Int, 39 Sck, QBR 69.4
2014 63.4%, 4410 yds, 30 TD, 14 Int, 28 Sck, QBR 92.1
2015 62.6%, 4432 yds, 35 TD, 14 Int, 27 Sck, QBR 93.6
2016 63.0%, 4027 yds, 26 TD, 16 Int, 21 Sck, QBR 86.0
2017 61.6%, 3468 yds, 19 TD, 13 Int, 31 Sck, QBR 80.4
2018 66.0%, 4299 yds, 21 TD, 11 Int, 47 Sck, QBR 92.4

Folks, Eli Manning is NOT a bum by any stretch.

Based on those numbers, using my rose-colored preseason glasses and a better OL than ANY above season:

2019 68.0%, 4000+ yds, 23 TD, 10 Int,



Really...68%? All-time high at 38 with no #1 receiver...interesting.
He got sacked 47 times last season, Beckham gone for a quarter of the season, Barkley didn't really kick in until October and he managed 66%.

And I DID say rose-colored. :)
McAdoo called the plays in 2016-17.  
Britt in VA : 8/6/2019 4:42 pm : link
I mean, I guess you can blame Sullivan but what can Sullivan do when the head coach is the playcaller?

Now you can say, well McAdoo called the plays in 2014-2015, and I will ask you again, then what changed? SHould have been a seamless transition, right?

Then all you're left with is: well Sullivan had a hand in it too. Well if we're going that route, and McAdoo was the consistent playcaller throughout, then you're saying the gameplanning was the change. Which results in, Coughlin was a better gameplanner on how to attack the opposing team preperation wise, which I would agree with.
RE: 3-0  
Beer Man : 8/6/2019 4:49 pm : link
In comment 14520319 Dr. D said:
Quote:
career record in super bowls, that is.
+1
RE: McAdoo called the plays in 2016-17.  
Gatorade Dunk : 8/6/2019 5:02 pm : link
In comment 14520545 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
I mean, I guess you can blame Sullivan but what can Sullivan do when the head coach is the playcaller?

Now you can say, well McAdoo called the plays in 2014-2015, and I will ask you again, then what changed? SHould have been a seamless transition, right?

Then all you're left with is: well Sullivan had a hand in it too. Well if we're going that route, and McAdoo was the consistent playcaller throughout, then you're saying the gameplanning was the change. Which results in, Coughlin was a better gameplanner on how to attack the opposing team preperation wise, which I would agree with.

You think the OC just shows up for work on Sunday to do the playcalling? Seems like a rather simplistic POV.
RE: RE: McAdoo called the plays in 2016-17.  
Gatorade Dunk : 8/6/2019 5:06 pm : link
In comment 14520554 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 14520545 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


I mean, I guess you can blame Sullivan but what can Sullivan do when the head coach is the playcaller?

Now you can say, well McAdoo called the plays in 2014-2015, and I will ask you again, then what changed? SHould have been a seamless transition, right?

Then all you're left with is: well Sullivan had a hand in it too. Well if we're going that route, and McAdoo was the consistent playcaller throughout, then you're saying the gameplanning was the change. Which results in, Coughlin was a better gameplanner on how to attack the opposing team preperation wise, which I would agree with.


You think the OC just shows up for work on Sunday to do the playcalling? Seems like a rather simplistic POV.

And there is absolutely no question that Coughlin was a better gameplanner. IMO, his achilles heel was his loyalty to some fairly mediocre assistants, such as Sullivan (and it was further amplified by the Giants' desire for continuity which led to Sullivan becoming McAdoo's OC.

There's very little to support McAdoo being a good HC, but I think many fans paint with too broad a brush and actively refuse to give him any credit for what was a successful offensive output during his time as OC.
Is that what I said, or did I make a point about weekly gameplanning?  
Britt in VA : 8/6/2019 5:06 pm : link
?
I do give him credit. He was there. He called plays.  
Britt in VA : 8/6/2019 5:09 pm : link
My point is, what changed???

Ben McAdoo called plays with nearly the same personnel from 2014-2017.

2014: 13th in the league in offensive scoring
2015: 6th in the league in offensive scoring

Coughlin gone
McAdoo continues to call plays

2016: 25th in the league in scoring
2017: 31st in the league in scoring

Including a record stretch of 8 games bridging those two seasons where the offense failed to reach 20 points.
RE: Eli has been in the league so long that his stats from ten years  
christian : 8/6/2019 5:16 pm : link
In comment 14520485 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
ago aren't really comparative to what QB stats look like today. Ten years ago a 2-1 TD int ratio was good, today it is mediocre. A 7.5 YPA was good, not it is mediocre. A 65 percent completion percentage was good, today it is below average (not that I believe that completion percentage is all that important a stat.)


That's a fantastic point -- I don't think going back in time is a good indication of what's good in 2019.

I do think anything less than personally a good season in 2019 and Manning isn't playing pro football in 2020.
RE: I do give him credit. He was there. He called plays.  
Gatorade Dunk : 8/6/2019 5:19 pm : link
In comment 14520562 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
My point is, what changed???

Ben McAdoo called plays with nearly the same personnel from 2014-2017.

2014: 13th in the league in offensive scoring
2015: 6th in the league in offensive scoring

Coughlin gone
McAdoo continues to call plays

2016: 25th in the league in scoring
2017: 31st in the league in scoring

Including a record stretch of 8 games bridging those two seasons where the offense failed to reach 20 points.

McAdoo definitely benefited by having Coughlin to guide him, mentor him, lead the gameplanning, whatever. And that was evidently missing without Coughlin, no question. And it's just as obvious, IMO, that Mr. Peter Principle himself, Mike Sullivan, was basically useless as OC.
Ultimately I donít think there is any statistical line in the sand...  
Britt in VA : 8/6/2019 6:04 pm : link
that will determine Manningís future. I think it comes down to a. are the Giants winning games and b. is Manning contributing to that in a meaningful way...

I do not see any future where Manning plays for another team. Heís always stated he wants to play for the Giants and Giants only. Heís already the longest tenured Giant in team history, I think knowing that, heíll call it a day.
I think it really is that simple.  
Britt in VA : 8/6/2019 6:07 pm : link
.
RE: I think it really is that simple.  
christian : 8/6/2019 6:33 pm : link
In comment 14520583 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
.


Those aren't mutually inclusive or exclusive outcomes.

The Giants defense might be dreadful. They could lose a lot with a great offense. If you multiply x2 Manning's numbers from the second half of the year that's a pretty outstanding season, but if the defense doesn't improve that's not a winning team.

Conversely what if the team wins 10 games but Manning is relegated to game manager status? Is that enough to keep Jones on the sidelines?

I think the most fair measurement is his production.

Which then begs the question are there enough weapons to reasonably expect any QB to produce?
10 wins  
big_blue : 8/6/2019 6:40 pm : link
.
RE: With all due respect to the OP and responses  
christian : 8/6/2019 6:42 pm : link
In comment 14520399 djm said:
Quote:
Who cares about his stats? If the giants go 9-7 and make the playoffs would anyone care whether Eli finished inside the top 10 or outside? The sad thing is, some people would.

Itís time to win games. Eli had great numbers in 2014-2015 yet the giants sucked. Eli had average numbers in 2016 yet the giants won 11 games.


What else would be a fair measure to gauge whether Manning should return as QB?
RE: Ultimately I donít think there is any statistical line in the sand...  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/6/2019 6:47 pm : link
In comment 14520582 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
that will determine Manningís future. I think it comes down to a. are the Giants winning games and b. is Manning contributing to that in a meaningful way...

I do not see any future where Manning plays for another team. Heís always stated he wants to play for the Giants and Giants only. Heís already the longest tenured Giant in team history, I think knowing that, heíll call it a day.


Eli has nothing to do with whether we are going to move on or not. Unless he puts up a statistically elite season for himself (3-1 td/int ratio, 8 YPA). Daniel Jones does. And so far DJ looks competent enough to hand the reigns over to.

And as far as Eli playing for the Giants only. The Mannings have bigger plans and want to scrounge together enough money to buy a football team. They have lived rather frugally for people of their means. Is it because they come from old money? Possibly, but I'd definitely wager they want to become majority owners in the NFL if they can and the NFL would bend over backwards to offer up the next sad sack franchise that comes up for sale to the Mannings. If Eli has another decent season, if you think Eli is going to turn down 20 million to play personally I think you sound like Jets fan on that Kalil thread how he is honored to come out of retirement to play with the legendary Sam Darnold.

Probably a moot point though as my Cowboys friend buddy who brought up a good point to me. If we don't pay Dak who will? QB play isn't the desert it once was and there are plenty of decent QB's coming out of college these days.
Lombardi  
rocco8112 : 8/6/2019 6:49 pm : link
Three
...  
christian : 8/6/2019 6:53 pm : link
It will be quite easy to identify if the Giants are on the right track this season.

If the Giants can run and pass block, is the secondary making more plays and fewer mistakes, is Engram on the field and hitting big plays etc.

And of course wins and losses are self evident.

What's hard to choose is making a decision on arguably the most important player to the franchise in a generation. If that player has a good year, do you move on?
RE: ...  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/6/2019 7:11 pm : link
In comment 14520601 christian said:
Quote:
It will be quite easy to identify if the Giants are on the right track this season.

If the Giants can run and pass block, is the secondary making more plays and fewer mistakes, is Engram on the field and hitting big plays etc.

And of course wins and losses are self evident.

What's hard to choose is making a decision on arguably the most important player to the franchise in a generation. If that player has a good year, do you move on?


Does anyone see Eli putting up a 3-1 Td ratio and 8 YPA? I don't. I think more along the lines of 2.5 TD/Int ratio and 7.5 YPA is probably a best case scenario. Expecting more than that is a fool's errand. I'd love to see it, but it is extremely unlikely. This board skewers older and you can tell sometimes what they think a good statistical output from a QB is.
Christian....as far as your point about him having enough weapons  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/6/2019 7:24 pm : link
to win I don't think you can have it both ways. Either the QB needs an oline to win and makes his weapons better, or he's a mobile guy who can best take advantage of his weapons shaking free. If you need both than you are nothing more than a mediocre game manager. Plenty of people on this board shitting on Dak and want the things Dak has for Eli and think Eli is infinetly better than Dak. I personally think we will see right away where Eli is at. He has an offensive line and the best RB in the league. Make it work.
If Eli is going to have a 3:1 ratio  
dep026 : 8/6/2019 7:33 pm : link
His INTs need to be around 8, which I am not too hopeful for. TDs are really tricky though.

I mean if Barkley rushes for 15-17 TDS and Eli throws for 20-22 thatís nearly 40 TDS between them which is the minimum I want from the two combined.
RE: RE: ...  
christian : 8/6/2019 7:53 pm : link
In comment 14520612 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 14520601 christian said:


Quote:


It will be quite easy to identify if the Giants are on the right track this season.

If the Giants can run and pass block, is the secondary making more plays and fewer mistakes, is Engram on the field and hitting big plays etc.

And of course wins and losses are self evident.

What's hard to choose is making a decision on arguably the most important player to the franchise in a generation. If that player has a good year, do you move on?



Does anyone see Eli putting up a 3-1 Td ratio and 8 YPA? I don't. I think more along the lines of 2.5 TD/Int ratio and 7.5 YPA is probably a best case scenario. Expecting more than that is a fool's errand. I'd love to see it, but it is extremely unlikely. This board skewers older and you can tell sometimes what they think a good statistical output from a QB is.


To be fair only 4 QBs put up 3:1 TD/Int and 8+ YPA last year, so that's a serious bar. Manning has never sniffed that in his career.

But what if he does put up 30/12 and 4300 on 575?

Many would argue that's a very good, not just good season.

Is that a QB you just walk away from?
Christian....Mahomes, Rivers, Goff, Watson, Brees, Wilson, Wentz,  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/6/2019 8:04 pm : link
Rodgers, and Brady put up numbers like that. Top third of the league. I was using that as a benchmark because someone like Eli isn't going to put up a TD/Int ratio of 5/1 and throw for 7.5 YPA. Just isn't going to happen.

In your example if he throws up a year like that, that is a tough question, and I think he comes down to your evaluation of DJ and not Eli. 20 million (plus?) is a ton of money to spend. I'm just not seeing a scenario where Eli doesn't price himself out with great play unless we make a superbowl or something.
Recently I've just seen the media fawning over Brady  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/6/2019 8:06 pm : link
about he sacrifices for the team making 23 million this year. What gets lost is he is he just 70 million extension for 2 years. Personally to me that tells me Brady is ready to hang em up, but for that money sure I'll play another couple years.
Numbers lie...  
dep026 : 8/6/2019 8:09 pm : link
Goff doesnít belong in that list of QBs. In fact, Goff is one of the guys who I think slips big time this year.
RE: Numbers lie...  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/6/2019 8:21 pm : link
In comment 14520663 dep026 said:
Quote:
Goff doesnít belong in that list of QBs. In fact, Goff is one of the guys who I think slips big time this year.


I actually agree with that. Goff is a product of McVay and Gurley.
Actually if I'm playing the Rams at home, I'm fucking up the  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/6/2019 8:25 pm : link
headsets on purpose so McVay isn't in his ear. I'm not a big believer in hype trains (Watson is a great example of this, good QB, but the media was ready to paint him as next elite QB, don't think he gets there), but I think McVay is the next great head coach. What is crazy is unlike many before him he has 30 years ahead of him!
When I compare QBs  
dep026 : 8/6/2019 8:28 pm : link
I always try to have them switch places. So for instance. If you put Stafford on the Rams and Goff on the lions.... Rams May have been SB champs last year and the Lions would have been picking in the top 10.
9 wins.  
Marty in Albany : 8/6/2019 8:41 pm : link
.
...  
christian : 8/6/2019 9:02 pm : link
I think we're in for a hell of an offseason next year. You can kind of see it with all the posts on here that, understandably, just want to measure Manning on wins.

I wonder if that's and indication some think he's likely gone no matter what or an indication fans want him here so long as the team wins more games than it loses?

I'd wager most would only want him back if he had a "good" statistical performance. That's my take any way.

As far as ratios and numbers, I'd say 2.5 TD/Int and 7.5 YPA would make it damn hard for Mara to not want Manning back.
Great question..  
Q v2.0 : 8/6/2019 9:21 pm : link
Sixth seed in the NFC.
making the fucking  
ShocknAwe80 : 8/6/2019 9:31 pm : link
playoffs!!!! I don't give a shit what his numbers are.
making the fucking  
ShocknAwe80 : 8/6/2019 9:31 pm : link
playoffs!!!! I don't give a shit what his numbers are.
RE: making the fucking  
christian : 8/6/2019 9:38 pm : link
In comment 14520807 ShocknAwe80 said:
Quote:
playoffs!!!! I don't give a shit what his numbers are.


So if the Giants make the playoffs and lose in the first round, and Manning has a very average year, what do you want the Giants to do at QB?
RE: Recently I've just seen the media fawning over Brady  
bw in dc : 8/6/2019 9:53 pm : link
In comment 14520655 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
about he sacrifices for the team making 23 million this year. What gets lost is he is he just 70 million extension for 2 years. Personally to me that tells me Brady is ready to hang em up, but for that money sure I'll play another couple years.


Not really true. Brady's actual revised contract is a one year contract at $23M this year. But it's actually a lower cap hit for the Pats due to some cap juggling. The out years of 2020 and 2021 are really voidable years, so if Brady stays those years will be essentially be re-negotiated...
And if he does play them out  
ron mexico : 8/6/2019 10:00 pm : link
30 and 31 mill are still a few mil below the position leaders, which he arguably deserves in a short term deal.
RE: When I compare QBs  
christian : 8/6/2019 10:08 pm : link
In comment 14520692 dep026 said:
Quote:
I always try to have them switch places. So for instance. If you put Stafford on the Rams and Goff on the lions.... Rams May have been SB champs last year and the Lions would have been picking in the top 10.


Stafford is a 10 year vet, with some huge seasons under his belt. It's not like he's a bottom 3rd QB, he's a pretty good QB. I'd expect him to be a touch better than a 3rd year pro who's really only started 2.5 years.

The Rams were a good quarter from winning a ring. Nominally better play at QB gets them over the hump, which I wouldn't bet against next year.
RE: dep...  
Jimmy Googs : 8/7/2019 7:59 am : link
In comment 14520366 bw in dc said:
Quote:
I think you need to add this...

* Projections have not been adjusted for weather. Which can have a 15-20% impact on final projections.


pretty funny...
RE: RE: When I compare QBs  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/7/2019 11:33 am : link
In comment 14520853 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 14520692 dep026 said:


Quote:


I always try to have them switch places. So for instance. If you put Stafford on the Rams and Goff on the lions.... Rams May have been SB champs last year and the Lions would have been picking in the top 10.



Stafford is a 10 year vet, with some huge seasons under his belt. It's not like he's a bottom 3rd QB, he's a pretty good QB. I'd expect him to be a touch better than a 3rd year pro who's really only started 2.5 years.

The Rams were a good quarter from winning a ring. Nominally better play at QB gets them over the hump, which I wouldn't bet against next year.


That Rams team was stacked. They beat the Boys in the playoffs with their defense and run game, Goff played okay against the Saints, but they struggled a ton because the Saints sold out against the run. They scored 3 points against the Pats.

The Rams are pretty old as well. Kupp was very important to that offense and he is coming off a ACL late in the season. Gurley is a massive question mark. And of course the dreaded superbowl hangover.

I think the Niners are the suprise team in that division this year as long as Jimmy G can stay healthy. McKinnon is coming back off injury, but he got hurt in August. I think he has a massive year this year and will definitely be targeting him in Fantasy.
Youíre forgetting tevin coleman  
dep026 : 8/7/2019 11:45 am : link
On 49ers. I figure he would be the starter.
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