Despite the tough year for the team, really bad line and running game the first half of the year, and primary guys missing time Manning had a fine statistical year.
Second most completions of his career (380), highest % (66%), 4th most yards (4299), 3rd fewest ints (11), 4th highest passer rating (92.4).
Assuming he plays all 16 -- what would a good year look like this year?
(And for all the stats are for losers guys, good news, you can ignore this thread because it's about stats!)
+1 who cares about the other crap
Correct.
But then again, this is the same place where Eli's 2016 was not considered a good season for him.
+1
Only stats that matter.
Ill say:
66% - A lot of underneath, intermediate throws without a lot of chances deep should increase percentage
4,100 yards - we need to be a running team, so the less we throw, the better. 255 yards per game should be ok.
25 TDs - I am going in the middle ground here. Barkley is going to run a lot in hopefully. Defense will be better so the shoot outs wont be necessary.
13 INTs - he's going to throw some, might as well get use to it.
I think thats reasonable.
If you're talking fantasy football or to get the naysayers off his back, IMO it's less about actual numbers, more about the offense overall IMO.
But to keep the offense moving and scoring and not be considered "the reason they lose" and we assume similar stats for Barkley to last year, Eli would likely need something like 4000 yards, 26 TD's, under 15 INT's and 65% completion percent. and a solid red zone TD percent.
Last year the Giants at home had a 44% red zone TD percent, 50% overall.
I think for Eli to have a good statistical year (and more importantly the team to win) they need that to be closer to 60% overall red zone TD percent.
Plus his clock is ticking anyway so he may not even play 16 games.
I would say 25 TDs and 12 INTs would be a good season. Has to be above 65% completion since it looks like we are going shorter on passing.
Before he goes i would like to see a few great screen plays...
So, basically, his numbers from when McAdoo was OC?
Quote:
4000 plus yards, 30 TD's, less than 15 INT's.
So, basically, his numbers from when McAdoo was OC?
Yes, when McAdoo was OC, running mostly Tom Coughlin's offense.
And you can argue me that there was no change in the offense from 2015-2016, but I'd argue you're wrong. So let's just get that out of the way and agree to disagree.
Statistically I expect very good things.
67% 4.5k 28 TDs 15 Ints
What I am looking for from Eli this year is the ability to rise up when it matters. There will come a point in the season when we need a win to stay in the hunt, I want him to play his best in that spot. There will be a game we have no business winning, I want Eli to rise up and play his best in that spot. I want him to be what we all hope he can be.
...what I've missed for years is the 4th quarter assassin he was when he was young... man, how much fun was THAT?
* Projections have not been adjusted for weather. Which can have a 15-20% impact on final projections.
My guess is he’ll have about 2000 yards 12tds and like 10 ints by around midseason, with a good amount of that being garbage time/window dressing. At that point, does Jones take over?
* Projections have not been adjusted for weather. Which can have a 15-20% impact on final projections.
God you’re a useless human being.
It’s time to win games. Eli had great numbers in 2014-2015 yet the giants sucked. Eli had average numbers in 2016 yet the giants won 11 games.
Quote:
In comment 14520288 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
4000 plus yards, 30 TD's, less than 15 INT's.
So, basically, his numbers from when McAdoo was OC?
Yes, when McAdoo was OC, running mostly Tom Coughlin's offense.
And you can argue me that there was no change in the offense from 2015-2016, but I'd argue you're wrong. So let's just get that out of the way and agree to disagree.
What seems more likely to account for a statistical renaissance in a professional athlete's age 33 and 34 seasons with YOY improvements that included +12 passing TDs (+67%), -13 INTs (-48%), +592 passing yards (+16%), +22.7 QB rating (+33%), all while his average air yards decreased by more than a yard per attempt, from 9.66 in 2013 to 8.61 in 2014...
Option 1) new OC tweaks the offensive scheme to make it much more QB-friendly than the previous version.
Option 2) new OC simply comes in and runs the same offense that the HC preferred with his previous OC.
Of course, as others have mentioned, there was also another significant change to the offense between 2013 and 2014, but I don't get the sense you were trying to credit Beckham.
So yes, we can agree to disagree. Because if I agreed with your version, then we'd both be wrong.
Nothing else matters at this point. Wins are all any of us should care about. It’s all we should have cared about in 2005-2007 yet people bitched day and night here. Now these same fans mock dak Prescott at every turn yet all he’s done is win since day one. One day dak just might crack open a January run for the ages and then what? Silence from the masses I presume. No one will say jack shit.
Wouldn’t comparing his 2012 season a little more fair? And I’m not discredit Mcadoo - just the season you are comparing it too
Of course the W-L record is all that matters, at least to me (more specifically, making the playoffs despite what the regular season record will be)..That’s not what christian’s asking, imv..:)
Quote:
In comment 14520314 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 14520288 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
4000 plus yards, 30 TD's, less than 15 INT's.
So, basically, his numbers from when McAdoo was OC?
Yes, when McAdoo was OC, running mostly Tom Coughlin's offense.
And you can argue me that there was no change in the offense from 2015-2016, but I'd argue you're wrong. So let's just get that out of the way and agree to disagree.
What seems more likely to account for a statistical renaissance in a professional athlete's age 33 and 34 seasons with YOY improvements that included +12 passing TDs (+67%), -13 INTs (-48%), +592 passing yards (+16%), +22.7 QB rating (+33%), all while his average air yards decreased by more than a yard per attempt, from 9.66 in 2013 to 8.61 in 2014...
Option 1) new OC tweaks the offensive scheme to make it much more QB-friendly than the previous version.
Option 2) new OC simply comes in and runs the same offense that the HC preferred with his previous OC.
Of course, as others have mentioned, there was also another significant change to the offense between 2013 and 2014, but I don't get the sense you were trying to credit Beckham.
So yes, we can agree to disagree. Because if I agreed with your version, then we'd both be wrong.
A statistical renaisance? LOL! He had one bad year by his standards! 2013.
...which lends itself to a pretty good end to his career.
...which lends itself to a pretty good end to his career.
Throw in some late game heroics too.............
As far as Manning I think his performance is more indicative of 1) does his career continue 2) does it continue as a Giant.
I could see him have a dynamite year and the team lose 9 games. I could see him show signs he's done and the team win 9 games.
If he has a bad statistical year, I don't think he's on an NFL team in 2020, honestly.
I'd draw the line at 4200 yards, 25 TDs, 10 ints, 63% completions. That's the type of year he'll need to keep his job as a Giant from this fan.
Now just assume that's a good floor, how do you see those stats distributed across the weapons on the team?
Quote:
In comment 14520320 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
In comment 14520314 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 14520288 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
4000 plus yards, 30 TD's, less than 15 INT's.
So, basically, his numbers from when McAdoo was OC?
Yes, when McAdoo was OC, running mostly Tom Coughlin's offense.
And you can argue me that there was no change in the offense from 2015-2016, but I'd argue you're wrong. So let's just get that out of the way and agree to disagree.
What seems more likely to account for a statistical renaissance in a professional athlete's age 33 and 34 seasons with YOY improvements that included +12 passing TDs (+67%), -13 INTs (-48%), +592 passing yards (+16%), +22.7 QB rating (+33%), all while his average air yards decreased by more than a yard per attempt, from 9.66 in 2013 to 8.61 in 2014...
Option 1) new OC tweaks the offensive scheme to make it much more QB-friendly than the previous version.
Option 2) new OC simply comes in and runs the same offense that the HC preferred with his previous OC.
Of course, as others have mentioned, there was also another significant change to the offense between 2013 and 2014, but I don't get the sense you were trying to credit Beckham.
So yes, we can agree to disagree. Because if I agreed with your version, then we'd both be wrong.
A statistical renaisance? LOL! He had one bad year by his standards! 2013.
2014 were literally the only seasons that met YOUR criteria. And he was on a 3-year statistical decline trend before bottoming out in 2013. So yes, a statistical renaissance. I know your version of pro-football-reference is redacted to only show the good years, but still.
I know St. Tommy is second only to the Apostle Eli in your mind, but McAdoo did actually have a very positive impact as OC.
To your point that the offense was different in 2016, I agree. But I think we fundamentally disagree about the importance of OCs in general since you seem disinclined to assign any responsibility to Sullivan (a TC disciple) for the offense under McAdoo.
That's probably fair.
But if you think the offensive scheme in 2014 and 2015 was purely Coughlin's I have to wonder if you watched the games.
this
2014 63.4%, 4410 yds, 30 TD, 14 Int, 28 Sck, QBR 92.1
2015 62.6%, 4432 yds, 35 TD, 14 Int, 27 Sck, QBR 93.6
2016 63.0%, 4027 yds, 26 TD, 16 Int, 21 Sck, QBR 86.0
2017 61.6%, 3468 yds, 19 TD, 13 Int, 31 Sck, QBR 80.4
2018 66.0%, 4299 yds, 21 TD, 11 Int, 47 Sck, QBR 92.4
Folks, Eli Manning is NOT a bum by any stretch.
Based on those numbers, using my rose-colored preseason glasses and a better OL than ANY above season:
2019 68.0%, 4000+ yds, 23 TD, 10 Int,
Of course the W-L record is all that matters, at least to me (more specifically, making the playoffs despite what the regular season record will be)..That’s not what christian’s asking, imv..:)
I think over a 16 game season, things even out at you can get a good sense if a guy still belongs in the NFL, based on his statistical performance.
If Barkley absolutely just carries the team and the defense has a big turnaround, maybe the Giants get into the tournament. But would the Giants offer a new contract to a guy who didn't have a good year at QB?
Quote:
Which leads me to believe that perhaps it was more a regression to the mean than a decline.
That's probably fair.
But if you think the offensive scheme in 2014 and 2015 was purely Coughlin's I have to wonder if you watched the games.
I do, and I'll tell you why. We were still pushing the ball down the field. Often.
In 2016, everybody on this site was debating what happened to the deep pass. Why were we throwing only 5 yard patterns on 3rd and 8? Always under the marker. Always.
We also never struggled to reach 20 points in 2014 and 2015. Yet, we struggled under McAdoo with the same personnel.
Something changed.
2014 63.4%, 4410 yds, 30 TD, 14 Int, 28 Sck, QBR 92.1
2015 62.6%, 4432 yds, 35 TD, 14 Int, 27 Sck, QBR 93.6
2016 63.0%, 4027 yds, 26 TD, 16 Int, 21 Sck, QBR 86.0
2017 61.6%, 3468 yds, 19 TD, 13 Int, 31 Sck, QBR 80.4
2018 66.0%, 4299 yds, 21 TD, 11 Int, 47 Sck, QBR 92.4
Folks, Eli Manning is NOT a bum by any stretch.
Based on those numbers, using my rose-colored preseason glasses and a better OL than ANY above season:
2019 68.0%, 4000+ yds, 23 TD, 10 Int,
Really...68%? All-time high at 38 with no #1 receiver...interesting.
It absolutely did............Mac took complete control of the offense and wanted it framed in his style completely.
Big failure. He wasn't ready for the role of HC.
In 2014/2015 we were pushing it deep and still throwing back shoulder passes...............
Quote:
asked for Eli’s numbers. If he wanted anything else he would have said something like, “what do you feel the team’s record will be with Eli at tge helm.”
Of course the W-L record is all that matters, at least to me (more specifically, making the playoffs despite what the regular season record will be)..That’s not what christian’s asking, imv..:)
I think over a 16 game season, things even out at you can get a good sense if a guy still belongs in the NFL, based on his statistical performance.
If Barkley absolutely just carries the team and the defense has a big turnaround, maybe the Giants get into the tournament. But would the Giants offer a new contract to a guy who didn't have a good year at QB?
If he just “managed” the team and no real input in the playoffs, the no
We offense was predicated on the run that year. We are built to do that again, potentially.
And that's fine of course, but might trigger the fantasy morons who will declared Eli a bottom third QB.
We saw a lot of plug and play guys come through here through the years and he was able to stay successful when he did that. Guys like Boss, Ballard, Steve Smith, Hixon, Bear Pascoe, Hynoski, etc....
If you give Manning time to go through his progressions, he will find the open guy.
I don't expect Manning to have career numbers, I'm sure his numbers will fall somewhere in the averages they've always fallen in.
I just want efficient numbers. Low INT's, good completion percentage, and hitting on deep throws that are there.
Quote:
In comment 14520470 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
Which leads me to believe that perhaps it was more a regression to the mean than a decline.
That's probably fair.
But if you think the offensive scheme in 2014 and 2015 was purely Coughlin's I have to wonder if you watched the games.
I do, and I'll tell you why. We were still pushing the ball down the field. Often.
In 2016, everybody on this site was debating what happened to the deep pass. Why were we throwing only 5 yard patterns on 3rd and 8? Always under the marker. Always.
We also never struggled to reach 20 points in 2014 and 2015. Yet, we struggled under McAdoo with the same personnel.
Something changed.
Eli's average air yards per attempt dropped by over a yard between 2013 and 2014. We may have still been taking shots down the field, but they were definitely less frequent and more calculated. Now maybe Coughlin realized after the dumpster fire that the offense had become in 2013 that some risk aversion was wise, but given how the offense continued to trend in 2016, I think it's naive to assume McAdoo had no input as OC (and it's also silly, IMO, to not assign any blame to Sullivan for the offense's shortcomings in 2016 and 2017).
Quote:
2013 57.5%, 3818 yds, 18 TD, 27 Int, 39 Sck, QBR 69.4
2014 63.4%, 4410 yds, 30 TD, 14 Int, 28 Sck, QBR 92.1
2015 62.6%, 4432 yds, 35 TD, 14 Int, 27 Sck, QBR 93.6
2016 63.0%, 4027 yds, 26 TD, 16 Int, 21 Sck, QBR 86.0
2017 61.6%, 3468 yds, 19 TD, 13 Int, 31 Sck, QBR 80.4
2018 66.0%, 4299 yds, 21 TD, 11 Int, 47 Sck, QBR 92.4
Folks, Eli Manning is NOT a bum by any stretch.
Based on those numbers, using my rose-colored preseason glasses and a better OL than ANY above season:
2019 68.0%, 4000+ yds, 23 TD, 10 Int,
Really...68%? All-time high at 38 with no #1 receiver...interesting.
And I DID say rose-colored. :)
Now you can say, well McAdoo called the plays in 2014-2015, and I will ask you again, then what changed? SHould have been a seamless transition, right?
Then all you're left with is: well Sullivan had a hand in it too. Well if we're going that route, and McAdoo was the consistent playcaller throughout, then you're saying the gameplanning was the change. Which results in, Coughlin was a better gameplanner on how to attack the opposing team preperation wise, which I would agree with.
Now you can say, well McAdoo called the plays in 2014-2015, and I will ask you again, then what changed? SHould have been a seamless transition, right?
Then all you're left with is: well Sullivan had a hand in it too. Well if we're going that route, and McAdoo was the consistent playcaller throughout, then you're saying the gameplanning was the change. Which results in, Coughlin was a better gameplanner on how to attack the opposing team preperation wise, which I would agree with.
You think the OC just shows up for work on Sunday to do the playcalling? Seems like a rather simplistic POV.
Quote:
I mean, I guess you can blame Sullivan but what can Sullivan do when the head coach is the playcaller?
Now you can say, well McAdoo called the plays in 2014-2015, and I will ask you again, then what changed? SHould have been a seamless transition, right?
Then all you're left with is: well Sullivan had a hand in it too. Well if we're going that route, and McAdoo was the consistent playcaller throughout, then you're saying the gameplanning was the change. Which results in, Coughlin was a better gameplanner on how to attack the opposing team preperation wise, which I would agree with.
You think the OC just shows up for work on Sunday to do the playcalling? Seems like a rather simplistic POV.
And there is absolutely no question that Coughlin was a better gameplanner. IMO, his achilles heel was his loyalty to some fairly mediocre assistants, such as Sullivan (and it was further amplified by the Giants' desire for continuity which led to Sullivan becoming McAdoo's OC.
There's very little to support McAdoo being a good HC, but I think many fans paint with too broad a brush and actively refuse to give him any credit for what was a successful offensive output during his time as OC.
Ben McAdoo called plays with nearly the same personnel from 2014-2017.
2014: 13th in the league in offensive scoring
2015: 6th in the league in offensive scoring
Coughlin gone
McAdoo continues to call plays
2016: 25th in the league in scoring
2017: 31st in the league in scoring
Including a record stretch of 8 games bridging those two seasons where the offense failed to reach 20 points.
That's a fantastic point -- I don't think going back in time is a good indication of what's good in 2019.
I do think anything less than personally a good season in 2019 and Manning isn't playing pro football in 2020.
Ben McAdoo called plays with nearly the same personnel from 2014-2017.
2014: 13th in the league in offensive scoring
2015: 6th in the league in offensive scoring
Coughlin gone
McAdoo continues to call plays
2016: 25th in the league in scoring
2017: 31st in the league in scoring
Including a record stretch of 8 games bridging those two seasons where the offense failed to reach 20 points.
McAdoo definitely benefited by having Coughlin to guide him, mentor him, lead the gameplanning, whatever. And that was evidently missing without Coughlin, no question. And it's just as obvious, IMO, that Mr. Peter Principle himself, Mike Sullivan, was basically useless as OC.
I do not see any future where Manning plays for another team. He’s always stated he wants to play for the Giants and Giants only. He’s already the longest tenured Giant in team history, I think knowing that, he’ll call it a day.
Those aren't mutually inclusive or exclusive outcomes.
The Giants defense might be dreadful. They could lose a lot with a great offense. If you multiply x2 Manning's numbers from the second half of the year that's a pretty outstanding season, but if the defense doesn't improve that's not a winning team.
Conversely what if the team wins 10 games but Manning is relegated to game manager status? Is that enough to keep Jones on the sidelines?
I think the most fair measurement is his production.
Which then begs the question are there enough weapons to reasonably expect any QB to produce?
It’s time to win games. Eli had great numbers in 2014-2015 yet the giants sucked. Eli had average numbers in 2016 yet the giants won 11 games.
What else would be a fair measure to gauge whether Manning should return as QB?
I do not see any future where Manning plays for another team. He’s always stated he wants to play for the Giants and Giants only. He’s already the longest tenured Giant in team history, I think knowing that, he’ll call it a day.
Eli has nothing to do with whether we are going to move on or not. Unless he puts up a statistically elite season for himself (3-1 td/int ratio, 8 YPA). Daniel Jones does. And so far DJ looks competent enough to hand the reigns over to.
And as far as Eli playing for the Giants only. The Mannings have bigger plans and want to scrounge together enough money to buy a football team. They have lived rather frugally for people of their means. Is it because they come from old money? Possibly, but I'd definitely wager they want to become majority owners in the NFL if they can and the NFL would bend over backwards to offer up the next sad sack franchise that comes up for sale to the Mannings. If Eli has another decent season, if you think Eli is going to turn down 20 million to play personally I think you sound like Jets fan on that Kalil thread how he is honored to come out of retirement to play with the legendary Sam Darnold.
Probably a moot point though as my Cowboys friend buddy who brought up a good point to me. If we don't pay Dak who will? QB play isn't the desert it once was and there are plenty of decent QB's coming out of college these days.
If the Giants can run and pass block, is the secondary making more plays and fewer mistakes, is Engram on the field and hitting big plays etc.
And of course wins and losses are self evident.
What's hard to choose is making a decision on arguably the most important player to the franchise in a generation. If that player has a good year, do you move on?
If the Giants can run and pass block, is the secondary making more plays and fewer mistakes, is Engram on the field and hitting big plays etc.
And of course wins and losses are self evident.
What's hard to choose is making a decision on arguably the most important player to the franchise in a generation. If that player has a good year, do you move on?
Does anyone see Eli putting up a 3-1 Td ratio and 8 YPA? I don't. I think more along the lines of 2.5 TD/Int ratio and 7.5 YPA is probably a best case scenario. Expecting more than that is a fool's errand. I'd love to see it, but it is extremely unlikely. This board skewers older and you can tell sometimes what they think a good statistical output from a QB is.
I mean if Barkley rushes for 15-17 TDS and Eli throws for 20-22 that’s nearly 40 TDS between them which is the minimum I want from the two combined.
Quote:
It will be quite easy to identify if the Giants are on the right track this season.
If the Giants can run and pass block, is the secondary making more plays and fewer mistakes, is Engram on the field and hitting big plays etc.
And of course wins and losses are self evident.
What's hard to choose is making a decision on arguably the most important player to the franchise in a generation. If that player has a good year, do you move on?
Does anyone see Eli putting up a 3-1 Td ratio and 8 YPA? I don't. I think more along the lines of 2.5 TD/Int ratio and 7.5 YPA is probably a best case scenario. Expecting more than that is a fool's errand. I'd love to see it, but it is extremely unlikely. This board skewers older and you can tell sometimes what they think a good statistical output from a QB is.
To be fair only 4 QBs put up 3:1 TD/Int and 8+ YPA last year, so that's a serious bar. Manning has never sniffed that in his career.
But what if he does put up 30/12 and 4300 on 575?
Many would argue that's a very good, not just good season.
Is that a QB you just walk away from?
In your example if he throws up a year like that, that is a tough question, and I think he comes down to your evaluation of DJ and not Eli. 20 million (plus?) is a ton of money to spend. I'm just not seeing a scenario where Eli doesn't price himself out with great play unless we make a superbowl or something.
I actually agree with that. Goff is a product of McVay and Gurley.
I wonder if that's and indication some think he's likely gone no matter what or an indication fans want him here so long as the team wins more games than it loses?
I'd wager most would only want him back if he had a "good" statistical performance. That's my take any way.
As far as ratios and numbers, I'd say 2.5 TD/Int and 7.5 YPA would make it damn hard for Mara to not want Manning back.
So if the Giants make the playoffs and lose in the first round, and Manning has a very average year, what do you want the Giants to do at QB?
Not really true. Brady's actual revised contract is a one year contract at $23M this year. But it's actually a lower cap hit for the Pats due to some cap juggling. The out years of 2020 and 2021 are really voidable years, so if Brady stays those years will be essentially be re-negotiated...
Stafford is a 10 year vet, with some huge seasons under his belt. It's not like he's a bottom 3rd QB, he's a pretty good QB. I'd expect him to be a touch better than a 3rd year pro who's really only started 2.5 years.
The Rams were a good quarter from winning a ring. Nominally better play at QB gets them over the hump, which I wouldn't bet against next year.
* Projections have not been adjusted for weather. Which can have a 15-20% impact on final projections.
pretty funny...
Quote:
I always try to have them switch places. So for instance. If you put Stafford on the Rams and Goff on the lions.... Rams May have been SB champs last year and the Lions would have been picking in the top 10.
Stafford is a 10 year vet, with some huge seasons under his belt. It's not like he's a bottom 3rd QB, he's a pretty good QB. I'd expect him to be a touch better than a 3rd year pro who's really only started 2.5 years.
The Rams were a good quarter from winning a ring. Nominally better play at QB gets them over the hump, which I wouldn't bet against next year.
That Rams team was stacked. They beat the Boys in the playoffs with their defense and run game, Goff played okay against the Saints, but they struggled a ton because the Saints sold out against the run. They scored 3 points against the Pats.
The Rams are pretty old as well. Kupp was very important to that offense and he is coming off a ACL late in the season. Gurley is a massive question mark. And of course the dreaded superbowl hangover.
I think the Niners are the suprise team in that division this year as long as Jimmy G can stay healthy. McKinnon is coming back off injury, but he got hurt in August. I think he has a massive year this year and will definitely be targeting him in Fantasy.