for display only
Big Blue Interactive The Corner Forum  
Back to the Corner

Archived Thread

What's a Good Statistical Year for Manning

christian : 8/6/2019 12:56 pm
Despite the tough year for the team, really bad line and running game the first half of the year, and primary guys missing time Manning had a fine statistical year.

Second most completions of his career (380), highest % (66%), 4th most yards (4299), 3rd fewest ints (11), 4th highest passer rating (92.4).

Assuming he plays all 16 -- what would a good year look like this year?

(And for all the stats are for losers guys, good news, you can ignore this thread because it's about stats!)
Pages: 1 2 3 | Show All |  Next>>
30 TDs  
Big Blue '56 : 8/6/2019 1:01 pm : link
and 10 INTs..65% completions
Let's keep it simple...  
bw in dc : 8/6/2019 1:03 pm : link
63%+ completion %, 2:1 TD/INT ratio (minimum) and < 5 fumbles.
10 - 6  
Bold Ruler : Mod : 8/6/2019 1:03 pm : link
.
RE: 10 - 6  
gmenatlarge : 8/6/2019 1:04 pm : link
In comment 14520283 Bold Ruler said:
Quote:
.


+1 who cares about the other crap
Good = plays in 1 playoff game  
CT Charlie : 8/6/2019 1:06 pm : link
Excellent = plays in 2 playoff games
I'd like to see.....  
Britt in VA : 8/6/2019 1:07 pm : link
4000 plus yards, 30 TD's, less than 15 INT's.
Which is in line with his other good years in the league.  
Britt in VA : 8/6/2019 1:08 pm : link
.
RE: 10 - 6  
Chris684 : 8/6/2019 1:10 pm : link
In comment 14520283 Bold Ruler said:
Quote:
.


Correct.

But then again, this is the same place where Eli's 2016 was not considered a good season for him.
12  
Carl in CT : 8/6/2019 1:15 pm : link
Wins. Don’t care about Stats!
RE: 10 - 6  
ZogZerg : 8/6/2019 1:17 pm : link
In comment 14520283 Bold Ruler said:
Quote:
.


+1

Only stats that matter.
I don't know that I'd want to put that burden on Manning  
jcn56 : 8/6/2019 1:18 pm : link
not too confident in this defense, and we're trotting out garbage at WR. He's going to have to carry the team ala 2011 to get more than 9 wins out of this bunch.
Well I am not a stats guy  
dep026 : 8/6/2019 1:19 pm : link
and Ill be careful what I say, because the % gods are probably reading this thread...

Ill say:
66% - A lot of underneath, intermediate throws without a lot of chances deep should increase percentage

4,100 yards - we need to be a running team, so the less we throw, the better. 255 yards per game should be ok.

25 TDs - I am going in the middle ground here. Barkley is going to run a lot in hopefully. Defense will be better so the shoot outs wont be necessary.

13 INTs - he's going to throw some, might as well get use to it.

I think thats reasonable.
I don't even care about  
pjcas18 : 8/6/2019 1:20 pm : link
W/L, playoffs is a good year for me.

If you're talking fantasy football or to get the naysayers off his back, IMO it's less about actual numbers, more about the offense overall IMO.

But to keep the offense moving and scoring and not be considered "the reason they lose" and we assume similar stats for Barkley to last year, Eli would likely need something like 4000 yards, 26 TD's, under 15 INT's and 65% completion percent. and a solid red zone TD percent.

Last year the Giants at home had a 44% red zone TD percent, 50% overall.

I think for Eli to have a good statistical year (and more importantly the team to win) they need that to be closer to 60% overall red zone TD percent.
Stats are for losers  
GiantsRage2007 : 8/6/2019 1:23 pm : link
Give me a winning record and the playoffs, I don't care if he passes for 10 yards a game.
Realistically winning has to be 1st and foremost  
Rudy5757 : 8/6/2019 1:23 pm : link
Manning is only 2 games above .500 at this point. It would be a shame if his career record dipped below .500. If he gets off to a rough start he may never see the field again as a Giant.

Plus his clock is ticking anyway so he may not even play 16 games.

I would say 25 TDs and 12 INTs would be a good season. Has to be above 65% completion since it looks like we are going shorter on passing.

Before he goes i would like to see a few great screen plays...
RE: I'd like to see.....  
Gatorade Dunk : 8/6/2019 1:23 pm : link
In comment 14520288 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
4000 plus yards, 30 TD's, less than 15 INT's.

So, basically, his numbers from when McAdoo was OC?
3-0  
Dr. D : 8/6/2019 1:25 pm : link
career record in super bowls, that is.
RE: RE: I'd like to see.....  
Britt in VA : 8/6/2019 1:25 pm : link
In comment 14520314 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 14520288 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


4000 plus yards, 30 TD's, less than 15 INT's.


So, basically, his numbers from when McAdoo was OC?


Yes, when McAdoo was OC, running mostly Tom Coughlin's offense.

And you can argue me that there was no change in the offense from 2015-2016, but I'd argue you're wrong. So let's just get that out of the way and agree to disagree.
I expect good things  
Thegratefulhead : 8/6/2019 1:31 pm : link
Defense might take a bit to gel, I think we will pass more than we would in the first 8 games. Zeitler(BIG) & Remmers are upgrades. Barkley will play faster.

Statistically I expect very good things.

67% 4.5k 28 TDs 15 Ints

What I am looking for from Eli this year is the ability to rise up when it matters. There will come a point in the season when we need a win to stay in the hunt, I want him to play his best in that spot. There will be a game we have no business winning, I want Eli to rise up and play his best in that spot. I want him to be what we all hope he can be.
14-5...  
Brown_Hornet : 8/6/2019 1:39 pm : link
...
wasn't just Ben McAdoo  
bluepepper : 8/6/2019 1:57 pm : link
who arrived in 2014. Just saying. Don't shoot me!
Give me...  
x meadowlander : 8/6/2019 2:09 pm : link
...65% comp rate, >20 TD / <15 Int, 3500 yds, I'm good, but...


...what I've missed for years is the 4th quarter assassin he was when he was young... man, how much fun was THAT?
dep...  
bw in dc : 8/6/2019 2:13 pm : link
I think you need to add this...

* Projections have not been adjusted for weather. Which can have a 15-20% impact on final projections.
I’d be shocked if Eli throws over 25 tds this year.  
The_Boss : 8/6/2019 2:36 pm : link
I think those looking for 30 or more are sipping the spiked Kool Aid.
My guess is he’ll have about 2000 yards 12tds and like 10 ints by around midseason, with a good amount of that being garbage time/window dressing. At that point, does Jones take over?
10 wins 6 loses  
arniefez : 8/6/2019 2:37 pm : link
or better anything else means nothing.
RE: dep...  
dep026 : 8/6/2019 2:37 pm : link
In comment 14520366 bw in dc said:
Quote:
I think you need to add this...

* Projections have not been adjusted for weather. Which can have a 15-20% impact on final projections.


God you’re a useless human being.
With all due respect to the OP and responses  
djm : 8/6/2019 2:44 pm : link
Who cares about his stats? If the giants go 9-7 and make the playoffs would anyone care whether Eli finished inside the top 10 or outside? The sad thing is, some people would.

It’s time to win games. Eli had great numbers in 2014-2015 yet the giants sucked. Eli had average numbers in 2016 yet the giants won 11 games.
RE: RE: RE: I'd like to see.....  
Gatorade Dunk : 8/6/2019 2:45 pm : link
In comment 14520320 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
In comment 14520314 Gatorade Dunk said:


Quote:


In comment 14520288 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


4000 plus yards, 30 TD's, less than 15 INT's.


So, basically, his numbers from when McAdoo was OC?



Yes, when McAdoo was OC, running mostly Tom Coughlin's offense.

And you can argue me that there was no change in the offense from 2015-2016, but I'd argue you're wrong. So let's just get that out of the way and agree to disagree.

What seems more likely to account for a statistical renaissance in a professional athlete's age 33 and 34 seasons with YOY improvements that included +12 passing TDs (+67%), -13 INTs (-48%), +592 passing yards (+16%), +22.7 QB rating (+33%), all while his average air yards decreased by more than a yard per attempt, from 9.66 in 2013 to 8.61 in 2014...

Option 1) new OC tweaks the offensive scheme to make it much more QB-friendly than the previous version.

Option 2) new OC simply comes in and runs the same offense that the HC preferred with his previous OC.

Of course, as others have mentioned, there was also another significant change to the offense between 2013 and 2014, but I don't get the sense you were trying to credit Beckham.

So yes, we can agree to disagree. Because if I agreed with your version, then we'd both be wrong.
And really guys  
djm : 8/6/2019 2:47 pm : link
Do we really need to see or gauge Eli’s overall abilities as a stat producer? Aren’t we past this by now?

Nothing else matters at this point. Wins are all any of us should care about. It’s all we should have cared about in 2005-2007 yet people bitched day and night here. Now these same fans mock dak Prescott at every turn yet all he’s done is win since day one. One day dak just might crack open a January run for the ages and then what? Silence from the masses I presume. No one will say jack shit.
We need Matt in Syracuse to crunch some numbers for us  
Greg from LI : 8/6/2019 2:52 pm : link
He had that great proprietary algorithm that predicted Sean Bennett's HOF career, after all.
Gatorade Dunk  
dep026 : 8/6/2019 2:55 pm : link
Come on be a little more fair. You’re comparing his worst statistical year to his best one. 2013 was one of the worst Giants teams ever. At least 2014 had OBJ.

Wouldn’t comparing his 2012 season a little more fair? And I’m not discredit Mcadoo - just the season you are comparing it too
anything that has NYG passing the baton  
Pep22 : 8/6/2019 3:05 pm : link
to Jones by October
I’m not a stat guy in the main, but christian specifically  
Big Blue '56 : 8/6/2019 3:12 pm : link
asked for Eli’s numbers. If he wanted anything else he would have said something like, “what do you feel the team’s record will be with Eli at tge helm.”

Of course the W-L record is all that matters, at least to me (more specifically, making the playoffs despite what the regular season record will be)..That’s not what christian’s asking, imv..:)
RE: RE: RE: RE: I'd like to see.....  
Britt in VA : 8/6/2019 3:17 pm : link
In comment 14520402 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 14520320 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


In comment 14520314 Gatorade Dunk said:


Quote:


In comment 14520288 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


4000 plus yards, 30 TD's, less than 15 INT's.


So, basically, his numbers from when McAdoo was OC?



Yes, when McAdoo was OC, running mostly Tom Coughlin's offense.

And you can argue me that there was no change in the offense from 2015-2016, but I'd argue you're wrong. So let's just get that out of the way and agree to disagree.


What seems more likely to account for a statistical renaissance in a professional athlete's age 33 and 34 seasons with YOY improvements that included +12 passing TDs (+67%), -13 INTs (-48%), +592 passing yards (+16%), +22.7 QB rating (+33%), all while his average air yards decreased by more than a yard per attempt, from 9.66 in 2013 to 8.61 in 2014...

Option 1) new OC tweaks the offensive scheme to make it much more QB-friendly than the previous version.

Option 2) new OC simply comes in and runs the same offense that the HC preferred with his previous OC.

Of course, as others have mentioned, there was also another significant change to the offense between 2013 and 2014, but I don't get the sense you were trying to credit Beckham.

So yes, we can agree to disagree. Because if I agreed with your version, then we'd both be wrong.


A statistical renaisance? LOL! He had one bad year by his standards! 2013.
play all 16 games.....  
BillKo : 8/6/2019 3:22 pm : link
....which lends itself to a 9/10 win season...

...which lends itself to a pretty good end to his career.
RE: play all 16 games.....  
BillKo : 8/6/2019 3:23 pm : link
In comment 14520450 BillKo said:
Quote:
....which lends itself to a 9/10 win season...

...which lends itself to a pretty good end to his career.


Throw in some late game heroics too.............
...  
christian : 8/6/2019 3:29 pm : link
Remember, this is about stats. If stats are for losers, no need to play along!

As far as Manning I think his performance is more indicative of 1) does his career continue 2) does it continue as a Giant.

I could see him have a dynamite year and the team lose 9 games. I could see him show signs he's done and the team win 9 games.

If he has a bad statistical year, I don't think he's on an NFL team in 2020, honestly.

I'd draw the line at 4200 yards, 25 TDs, 10 ints, 63% completions. That's the type of year he'll need to keep his job as a Giant from this fan.

Now just assume that's a good floor, how do you see those stats distributed across the weapons on the team?
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: I'd like to see.....  
Gatorade Dunk : 8/6/2019 3:30 pm : link
In comment 14520442 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
In comment 14520402 Gatorade Dunk said:


Quote:


In comment 14520320 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


In comment 14520314 Gatorade Dunk said:


Quote:


In comment 14520288 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


4000 plus yards, 30 TD's, less than 15 INT's.


So, basically, his numbers from when McAdoo was OC?



Yes, when McAdoo was OC, running mostly Tom Coughlin's offense.

And you can argue me that there was no change in the offense from 2015-2016, but I'd argue you're wrong. So let's just get that out of the way and agree to disagree.


What seems more likely to account for a statistical renaissance in a professional athlete's age 33 and 34 seasons with YOY improvements that included +12 passing TDs (+67%), -13 INTs (-48%), +592 passing yards (+16%), +22.7 QB rating (+33%), all while his average air yards decreased by more than a yard per attempt, from 9.66 in 2013 to 8.61 in 2014...

Option 1) new OC tweaks the offensive scheme to make it much more QB-friendly than the previous version.

Option 2) new OC simply comes in and runs the same offense that the HC preferred with his previous OC.

Of course, as others have mentioned, there was also another significant change to the offense between 2013 and 2014, but I don't get the sense you were trying to credit Beckham.

So yes, we can agree to disagree. Because if I agreed with your version, then we'd both be wrong.



A statistical renaisance? LOL! He had one bad year by his standards! 2013.

2014 were literally the only seasons that met YOUR criteria. And he was on a 3-year statistical decline trend before bottoming out in 2013. So yes, a statistical renaissance. I know your version of pro-football-reference is redacted to only show the good years, but still.
2014 and 2015*  
Gatorade Dunk : 8/6/2019 3:30 pm : link
.
I should clarify, when I say 3-year trend  
Gatorade Dunk : 8/6/2019 3:34 pm : link
that's not really fair. His numbers in 2012 were worse than in 2011, then worse again (by a lot) in 2013.

I know St. Tommy is second only to the Apostle Eli in your mind, but McAdoo did actually have a very positive impact as OC.

To your point that the offense was different in 2016, I agree. But I think we fundamentally disagree about the importance of OCs in general since you seem disinclined to assign any responsibility to Sullivan (a TC disciple) for the offense under McAdoo.
Please walk me through this 3 years statistical decline before  
Britt in VA : 8/6/2019 3:38 pm : link
bottoming out in 2013, that required Ben McAdoo to come in and revive his career:

On the other hand....  
Britt in VA : 8/6/2019 3:40 pm : link
I guess there's only one way to go after throwing 5000 yards and winning a Superbowl in 2011. Hard to top.
Manning's 2012 numbers look pretty similar to his 2009 numbers.  
Britt in VA : 8/6/2019 3:43 pm : link
Which leads me to believe that perhaps it was more a regression to the mean than a decline.
I think the funniest part of this thread is his biggest supporters  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/6/2019 3:43 pm : link
throw at stats that would put him in the bottom half of the league on a per game basis as a good year.
RE: Manning's 2012 numbers look pretty similar to his 2009 numbers.  
Gatorade Dunk : 8/6/2019 3:46 pm : link
In comment 14520470 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
Which leads me to believe that perhaps it was more a regression to the mean than a decline.

That's probably fair.

But if you think the offensive scheme in 2014 and 2015 was purely Coughlin's I have to wonder if you watched the games.
Other than a career high in TDs in 2015...  
Britt in VA : 8/6/2019 3:46 pm : link
I don't see anything statistically in those stat lines that stand out from the averages the rest of his career.
RE: 10 - 6  
Bill in UT : 8/6/2019 3:46 pm : link
In comment 14520283 Bold Ruler said:
Quote:
.


this
ELI.  
x meadowlander : 8/6/2019 3:46 pm : link
2013 57.5%, 3818 yds, 18 TD, 27 Int, 39 Sck, QBR 69.4
2014 63.4%, 4410 yds, 30 TD, 14 Int, 28 Sck, QBR 92.1
2015 62.6%, 4432 yds, 35 TD, 14 Int, 27 Sck, QBR 93.6
2016 63.0%, 4027 yds, 26 TD, 16 Int, 21 Sck, QBR 86.0
2017 61.6%, 3468 yds, 19 TD, 13 Int, 31 Sck, QBR 80.4
2018 66.0%, 4299 yds, 21 TD, 11 Int, 47 Sck, QBR 92.4

Folks, Eli Manning is NOT a bum by any stretch.

Based on those numbers, using my rose-colored preseason glasses and a better OL than ANY above season:

2019 68.0%, 4000+ yds, 23 TD, 10 Int,
RE: I’m not a stat guy in the main, but christian specifically  
christian : 8/6/2019 3:47 pm : link
In comment 14520437 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
asked for Eli’s numbers. If he wanted anything else he would have said something like, “what do you feel the team’s record will be with Eli at tge helm.”

Of course the W-L record is all that matters, at least to me (more specifically, making the playoffs despite what the regular season record will be)..That’s not what christian’s asking, imv..:)


I think over a 16 game season, things even out at you can get a good sense if a guy still belongs in the NFL, based on his statistical performance.

If Barkley absolutely just carries the team and the defense has a big turnaround, maybe the Giants get into the tournament. But would the Giants offer a new contract to a guy who didn't have a good year at QB?
RE: RE: Manning's 2012 numbers look pretty similar to his 2009 numbers.  
Britt in VA : 8/6/2019 3:48 pm : link
In comment 14520473 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 14520470 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


Which leads me to believe that perhaps it was more a regression to the mean than a decline.


That's probably fair.

But if you think the offensive scheme in 2014 and 2015 was purely Coughlin's I have to wonder if you watched the games.


I do, and I'll tell you why. We were still pushing the ball down the field. Often.

In 2016, everybody on this site was debating what happened to the deep pass. Why were we throwing only 5 yard patterns on 3rd and 8? Always under the marker. Always.

We also never struggled to reach 20 points in 2014 and 2015. Yet, we struggled under McAdoo with the same personnel.

Something changed.
Pages: 1 2 3 | Show All |  Next>>
Back to the Corner