We haven't talked about this specifically in awhile so I figured I'd get a discussion going.
Luis Medina pitched 7 shutout innings, allowing just two hits and striking out 10. He has finally started to show the results that the stuff says he should be producing.
Josh Stowers is tearing the cover off the ball in August, hitting .391.
Josh Breaux was erroneously reported to be out for the season but he's back and had a big homerun the other day.
Ezequiel Duran hit his 11th HR for SI last night, not bad for a quick twitch middle IF.
3rd rounder Jake Sanford hit his 4th HR last night to walk SI off in extras.
Abreu came back last night and had a forgettable appearance, but he's off the IL so that's positive.
Luis Gil went on the IL with what was described as a minor injury.
Also Clarke Schmidt's 2nd Trenton start went much better than his first, 6.2 IP (92 pitches) 2 H 0 R 0 ER 0 BB 9 K 1 WP, retired 17 in a row at one point.
Link - ( New Window )
Link - ( New Window )
Thanks. Love the stuff on Gill and Caleb
It is shaping up to be a wild November for roster shaping.
Right now, the following guys will be FA at the end of the season: Romine, Betances, CC, Maybin, Gardner, Didi and EE. Chapman has an opt-out, which he MIGHT use.
However, the following are ALL on the 60 day DL and have to be added back to the roster or dropped off: Barrett (likely to get dropped), Betances (will be a FA), Heller (probably add), Mongomery (sure to be added), Sevy (sure to be added), Andujar (sure to be added), Bird (I would think drop, but the Yanks seem to like him), Ellsbury (reports were the insurance on his contract runs out at the end of the season- is this the point where they cut bait?), Stanton (sure to be added).
So that means at least 7 FA open roster spots- with an 8th if Chapman opts out. However, at the same time, at least 4 guys must be added from the 60 day DL, with a couple more ?- Heller, Bird, Ellsbury- so it could be 7- which would negate all roster spots opened for FA.
At the same time, the Yanks have a number of guys on the 40 who could be DFAd or traded to open spots. Some possible drops/trade material: Chance Adams, Dull, Hale, Cessa (will be out of options after this season), Cortes, Ford, Valera, Wade.
So that is up to 8 guys who could be possibly be DFAd or traded currently on the 40 (though they could always surprise and deal some others).
Furthermore, several key prospects must be added to the roster or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft: Florial, Mike King, Deivi Garcia, Luis Gil, Luis Medina, Nick Nelson, and possibly Miguel Yajure. That is at least 7 guys who are very likely or necessary to be added or taken.
Others meriting consideration to be added to the roster or exposed are: Kyle Holder, Hoy Jun Park, Trey Amburgey, J.P. Feyereisen. That is another 4 possibilities.
Doing the math, and it will be extraordinarily difficult to protect everyone or find enough spaces without making some hard decisions.
Looking big picture, I think that the Yanks have no choice but to let Ellsbury and Bird go simply to find roster spots for players who need protection or will be playable in 2020.
IMO, guys like Heller, Feyereisen, and Cessa are really on the bubble because guys with better stuff are close enough to be ready in 2020.
Even then, it is hard to come up with a combination of 40 that protects everyone they likely want to keep- while still leaving room to sign FA like Didi and maybe Betances- or guys in the FA market.
Ironically, Gil was a guy they got in a roster clearing move- they traded Jake Cave(!) for Gil.
Quote:
postseason rich - guys close being traded for guys further down the line.
Ironically, Gil was a guy they got in a roster clearing move- they traded Jake Cave(!) for Gil.
As long as he can put off losing people while get something back in return.
Would have been nice to have Pearson, no? Just saying.
Looking at our pitching now, you have to wonder how come Cash didn't package these middling prospects who are probably not long for the organization and get some serviceable help for the post-season run. I guess you have to have takers first.
However, I can't imagine grouping Adams, Acevedo, Abreu and Frazier together couldn't have gotten someone good in return. Take Estrada, we all like him, but where is he going to play? Shuffling him between AAA and the majors next year won't do him or his trade value any good.
Great news.
A) I assume they will be anxious to deal because for decades they have been and this is the closest they have been in years. Hence as the deadline approaches I assume that maybe Torres or some other real prize relative to what I trade is available
b) I am cautious because their ability to identify bargains I don't even know I have is legendary
c) More than half the teams fans were in a go for it mode as of 7/31 especially with the wildcards
d) I don't know and Cashman does how close his own minor leaguers are and I don't know if Severino/Bentances/Hicks/Voit/Stanton are coming back this year. So I assume more desperation than Cashman may feel.
By this time Cashman knows his odds of re signing Betances. Chapman opting out.
Come winter, the Yankees have a ton they can trade and some pieces they can buy...for us holding for the five year window ahead makes sense.
I think some GM'S simply misjudged our sense of market urgency. And I think some of the pitchers the media mentioned were not high on Yankee lists given their analysis.
just imo
Tom Kosensky
@mryclept
·
11h
Final line on Mike King (
@swbrailriders
): 6.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 11 K. 99 pitches/59 strikes. Gave up 2-run HR in 6th and two of those BB in 7th. He did a solid job of generating ground balls....HR not withstanding. #Yankees #milb #PinstripePride
Tom Kosensky
@mryclept
19-year old Yoendrys Gomez (
@ChasRiverDogs
) will be fun to watch in 2020. Tonight: 6 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 8 K. Run scored on annoying WP with two outs in the 6th.... #Yankees #milb #PinstripePride
Josh Breaux (
@Big_Boshy
) hits his 10th HR of the season in his 41st game. Hopefully he will get to play a full season next year, big offensive talent
Virginia Yankee
@VirginiaYankee1
·
14h
Chris Gittens with his 22nd HR; his OPS stands at .904. Yes he is older and he Ks a lot, but his OBP is close to .400
NYY 3rd rounder Jake Sanford having himself a night, 3-3, 2 R, RBI, BB, his 13th 2B, and an OF assist for SI (note: finished 3-4)
Tom Kosensky
@mryclept
·
12h
Luis Medina (
@TampaTarpons
): 5.2 IP, 2 H, 3 R (0 ER), 2 BB, 4 K. 92 pitches/51 strikes. 6th inning was rather annoying. Anyway, whatever or whoever flipped the switch, here is hoping it stays in the “ON” position. #Yankees #milb #PinstripePride
Tom Kosensky
@mryclept
·
12h
Roansy Contreras (
@ChasRiverDogs
): 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K. Teenager keeps getting stronger and stronger and stronger.... #Yankees #milb #PinstripePride
Ben Badler: He's one of the more difficult prospects to pin down, because the gap between his pure stuff and his performance (until recently) might be the biggest in baseball.
Ben Badler: There are still a ton of red flags there, but it's good to at least see some signs of progress with him.
Can't help myself though I love elite fielding.
Doesn’t get much better than Clarke Schmidt’s outing, 7 IP (88 pitches) 3 H 0 R 0 ER 0 BB 5 K 1 WP 9:5 GB:FB, 2.37 ERA in his 3 AAA outings
(note: should have been AA outings)
Can't help myself though I love elite fielding.
I think he's made himself at least a secondary trade chip. He's older at this point, but not unconscionably so. I'm an MILB nerd, I recognize that most of these kids won't make the bigs for more than a cup of coffee, if at all, and that if they do it's at least even money it'll be in another uniform.
Torres is the replacement to Didi at SS and DJ would play 2B for most of the games. Holder makes a nice middle infield back up with that wizard type glove and left handed bat.
Didi in 250+ at bats this year is a .07 WAR player, he's only been okay since his return. His On Base % is sub .300
Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
but I'm pretty sure they're not going to pencil in a 25 year old contact hitter without a AAA AB to replace him just because they like the glove.
Torres is the replacement to Didi at SS and DJ would play 2B for most of the games. Holder makes a nice middle infield back up with that wizard type glove and left handed bat.
Didi in 250+ at bats this year is a .07 WAR player, he's only been okay since his return. His On Base % is sub .300
I think Estrada would get first crack at the backup job, unless he is dealt this winter.
Quote:
In comment 14547448 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
but I'm pretty sure they're not going to pencil in a 25 year old contact hitter without a AAA AB to replace him just because they like the glove.
Torres is the replacement to Didi at SS and DJ would play 2B for most of the games. Holder makes a nice middle infield back up with that wizard type glove and left handed bat.
Didi in 250+ at bats this year is a .07 WAR player, he's only been okay since his return. His On Base % is sub .300
I think Estrada would get first crack at the backup job, unless he is dealt this winter.
I like Estrada, but more as a 2nd baseman, not a SS. Wade and Holder and perhaps Park will stick at SS long term.
Quote:
In comment 14547465 JPinstripes said:
Quote:
In comment 14547448 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
but I'm pretty sure they're not going to pencil in a 25 year old contact hitter without a AAA AB to replace him just because they like the glove.
Torres is the replacement to Didi at SS and DJ would play 2B for most of the games. Holder makes a nice middle infield back up with that wizard type glove and left handed bat.
Didi in 250+ at bats this year is a .07 WAR player, he's only been okay since his return. His On Base % is sub .300
I think Estrada would get first crack at the backup job, unless he is dealt this winter.
I like Estrada, but more as a 2nd baseman, not a SS. Wade and Holder and perhaps Park will stick at SS long term.
This may be true, but I seriously doubt Wade sticks with the team this winter (trade or DFA is a good possibility) because guys with better offensive profiles need a AAA spot.
Park and Holder likely need some significant AAA ABs. Both are still developing and sitting on the bench in NY probabl does not do them any good.
Estrada probably would have already established himself in NY except for the recovery period required after the shooting. He showed real upside in his time with the Yanks this year. He does not need further time in AAA- and with DJ's flexibility, it would be more likely than not that Estrada would start at least once a week to get others rest with DJ sits or rotates to other spots.
296/352/425 - 19 doubles, 4 triples, 51 runs, 38 RBIs, 13 SB
266/313/452 - 17 doubles, 2 triples, 39 runs, 32 RBIs, 3 SB
***Wade has 50 more at bats.
I don't think it's a forgone conclusion that Wade can't be a productive offensive player at the MLB level, he is still only 24 with plus run and defense.
The guy can rake, at least until the major league pitchers find any holes in his swing.
Thanks. Some of these 'guys' are BABIES. How accurate can these predictions be??
296/352/425 - 19 doubles, 4 triples, 51 runs, 38 RBIs, 13 SB
266/313/452 - 17 doubles, 2 triples, 39 runs, 32 RBIs, 3 SB
***Wade has 50 more at bats.
False equivalency.
Wade is a living example of the classic AAAA player- does just fine at AAA, but simply can't get it done in the majors. 196 ABs over 3 seasons with the Yanks- a dreadful .175 BA, .247 OBP and career OPS+ of 36- keeping in mind that a replacement level player would have an OPS+ of 100.
In contrast, Estrada (while having only 2019 in the majors), has an OPS+ of 93, has a BA of .246 and an OBP of .283. Not exciting, but at least he is reasonably close to a replacement level player- which is adequate for a backup.
In short, Wade has had numerous opportunities over 3 seasons to show that he is more than a AAAA player- and has flopped each and every time. Estrada has shown he belongs by at least being a replacement level player.
If one of the tanking teams was smart they'd steal Wade from the Yankees for a MiLB pitching lottery ticket and give him 1000 PA's to see if he can hit enough for his + speed and glove to work in MLB.
MLB stats for either player are to small and inconsistent of a proper sample size to make any judgement IMV.
I cannot comprehend that the Yankees are not screaming at the league office on a weekly basis.
Quote:
a lot of good info in there. Some quibbles, but it's clear work went into it. Link - ( New Window )
Thanks. Some of these 'guys' are BABIES. How accurate can these predictions be??
They're not particularly accurate, but they're drawing on national pubs, a little bit of personal observation, and maybe some chatter if they're close enough to be privy to it, and from there you get a sense of how these guys might be valued by the Yankees and by other teams. Outside of the guys with legit star potential that's about the best you can ask.
2B Brandon Wagner, who broke out last year at Tampa but who has struggled mightily this year at Trenton (HRs dropped from 21 to 8, hitting sub-Mendoza)
OF Josh Stowers, who has been tattooing the ball all month for Charleston and whose 33 SBs lead the farm.
RHP Daniel Bies, a 6'8" hurler who killed it at Charleston but whose command has deserted him at Tampa.
And RHP Glenn Otto, the most talented of the bunch, limited to just 56 IP so far by injuries but with legit 2-3 stuff if he can stay healthy and it all comes together.
2B Brandon Wagner, who broke out last year at Tampa but who has struggled mightily this year at Trenton (HRs dropped from 21 to 8, hitting sub-Mendoza)
OF Josh Stowers, who has been tattooing the ball all month for Charleston and whose 33 SBs lead the farm.
RHP Daniel Bies, a 6'8" hurler who killed it at Charleston but whose command has deserted him at Tampa.
And RHP Glenn Otto, the most talented of the bunch, limited to just 56 IP so far by injuries but with legit 2-3 stuff if he can stay healthy and it all comes together.
Just 5 - is that a normal size contingent for AFL?
MLB stats for either player are to small and inconsistent of a proper sample size to make any judgement IMV.
AAA numbers are meaningless for projecting MLB performance, IMO. I've seen far too many AAA superstars who can't even hit their own weight in the major leagues. The numbers tell you what they can do against AAA pitching and nothing more.
However, if you want to go there, I would strongly suggest that you take note that Wade has been in AAA for three seasons now- and has not gotten better over time. His best AAA season was in 2017. He regressed significantly in 2018. He recovered somewhat in 2019- but the numbers are still WELL short of his 2017 production. So, which AAA numbers do you want to use? 2018? 2017? 2019? He is 24 years old- he is what he is at this point.
A second issue that is also rather important to the discussion- Wade is also out of options after this season. Estrada still has an option remaining. In other words, Wade is in the "must make the team in 2020" mode. They can't send him to the minors next year without having him clear waivers.
As for the small sample sizes, Wade has now had multiple opportunities stretched out over 3 seasons. Quite simply, not only does he have no record of success, but he has not shown any indication that he can even be a league average hitter.
Estrada has just a single season of AAA (he lost 2018 recovering from a gunshot wound). He also has a similar short period of MLB opportunity.
The difference is stark. Both Wade and Estrada were used in a backup capacity- neither were given extended starting opportunities. Wade has failed each and every opportunity given him over a 3 year period. Estrada has not shined, but was at least replacement level in his opportunity- which is already more than Wade has ever done in the majors.
The fact remains that the Yanks are in a window of championship opportunities that will extend for a number of years. That means roster spots are at a premium and they can't keep giving opportunities to guys who can't get the job done- especially when they have had multiple chances. They need players who can come up and fill the role they were brought in for.
Some, like Urshula, have overachieved compared to expectations. Others, like Cortes, struggled at first but then steadied themselves and have become at least useful.
Still others failed in their initial opportunities- but then at least found some success later- like Higashioka who was pretty bad in 2018- but has been useful when needed in 2019. I put Frazier in this category too- was awful in 2017 and got almost no opportunity in 2018- but produced (at least offensively but not defensively) this season.
At some point, a player has to show SOMETHING, because others are always right behind him. An out-of-options Wade offers next to nothing to the Yanks, especially with no indications that he can be even league average with the bat.
Maybe Wade goes somewhere else and becomes a starter- but the Yanks don't have the time to wait years for a backup to figure it out and fail time after time. They will just move on to the next option.
Quote:
C Donny Sands, who has struggled offensively at Tampa but who appears to be making strides defensively (CS rate up, attempts against him down, PB rate halved).
2B Brandon Wagner, who broke out last year at Tampa but who has struggled mightily this year at Trenton (HRs dropped from 21 to 8, hitting sub-Mendoza)
OF Josh Stowers, who has been tattooing the ball all month for Charleston and whose 33 SBs lead the farm.
RHP Daniel Bies, a 6'8" hurler who killed it at Charleston but whose command has deserted him at Tampa.
And RHP Glenn Otto, the most talented of the bunch, limited to just 56 IP so far by injuries but with legit 2-3 stuff if he can stay healthy and it all comes together.
Just 5 - is that a normal size contingent for AFL?
I think they get to send two more, but I could be mistaken.
The eligibility rules to play in the AFL are simple.
The roster size is 30 players per team.
Each Major League organization is required to provide six players subject to the following requirements:
All Triple-A and Double-A players are eligible, provided the players are on at least a Double-A level roster no later than Aug. 1.
One player below the Double-A level is allowed per Major League team.
One foreign player is allowed, as long as the player does not reside in a country that participates in winter ball, as part of the Caribbean Confederation or the Australian winter league.
No players with more than one year of credited Major League service as of August 31 are eligible, except a team may select one player picked in the most recently concluded Major League Rule 5 Draft.
To be eligible, players on Minor League disabled lists must be activated at least 45 days before the conclusion of their respective seasons.
Yes, I looked at your post again after reading those rules and was wondering about that. But what I posted is from MLB.com, so go figure.
Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
but you lost me at "False equivalency"... Perhaps you meant "False equivalence?" Anyway, referencing both Wade and Estrada AAA numbers this year is quite relevant to the type of players they are and probably project to be.
MLB stats for either player are to small and inconsistent of a proper sample size to make any judgement IMV.
AAA numbers are meaningless for projecting MLB performance, IMO. I've seen far too many AAA superstars who can't even hit their own weight in the major leagues. The numbers tell you what they can do against AAA pitching and nothing more.
However, if you want to go there, I would strongly suggest that you take note that Wade has been in AAA for three seasons now- and has not gotten better over time. His best AAA season was in 2017. He regressed significantly in 2018. He recovered somewhat in 2019- but the numbers are still WELL short of his 2017 production. So, which AAA numbers do you want to use? 2018? 2017? 2019? He is 24 years old- he is what he is at this point.
A second issue that is also rather important to the discussion- Wade is also out of options after this season. Estrada still has an option remaining. In other words, Wade is in the "must make the team in 2020" mode. They can't send him to the minors next year without having him clear waivers.
As for the small sample sizes, Wade has now had multiple opportunities stretched out over 3 seasons. Quite simply, not only does he have no record of success, but he has not shown any indication that he can even be a league average hitter.
Estrada has just a single season of AAA (he lost 2018 recovering from a gunshot wound). He also has a similar short period of MLB opportunity.
The difference is stark. Both Wade and Estrada were used in a backup capacity- neither were given extended starting opportunities. Wade has failed each and every opportunity given him over a 3 year period. Estrada has not shined, but was at least replacement level in his opportunity- which is already more than Wade has ever done in the majors.
The fact remains that the Yanks are in a window of championship opportunities that will extend for a number of years. That means roster spots are at a premium and they can't keep giving opportunities to guys who can't get the job done- especially when they have had multiple chances. They need players who can come up and fill the role they were brought in for.
Some, like Urshula, have overachieved compared to expectations. Others, like Cortes, struggled at first but then steadied themselves and have become at least useful.
Still others failed in their initial opportunities- but then at least found some success later- like Higashioka who was pretty bad in 2018- but has been useful when needed in 2019. I put Frazier in this category too- was awful in 2017 and got almost no opportunity in 2018- but produced (at least offensively but not defensively) this season.
At some point, a player has to show SOMETHING, because others are always right behind him. An out-of-options Wade offers next to nothing to the Yanks, especially with no indications that he can be even league average with the bat.
Maybe Wade goes somewhere else and becomes a starter- but the Yanks don't have the time to wait years for a backup to figure it out and fail time after time. They will just move on to the next option.
I understand your take Rich and it's well articulated. Wade has 3 years of options remaining according to Sportac FYI.
I am of the belief that Wade will be a guy that has 350+ OBA potential, combined with a very good glove and plus speed. This is a valuable asset for NYY or any other team for that matter. The kid hits and produces at AAA consistently and is inside a development process.