NFT: Yankees minors thread

Not sure why they haven't given him a shot this year.

Where do you see them going with Kyle Holder? He's having his best year at the plate, albeit as a guy a bit overaged for Trenton. Trade chip?

quietly a breakout offensive season, obscured a bit by the fact that his early season numbers were so terrible. I was hoping they'd trade a couple of their upper-minors middle IF at the trade deadline, because guys like Holder, Park, and Katoh are all AAA-ready and keeping them down at AA or shuttling them back and forth isn't doing wonders for their trade value.

Considering how punchless he was his first few seasons, the bit of power he's shown this year is very nice, particularly considering that Trenton is a tough park for power.

with an OPS+ of 120 and with a good K rate of around 15%. His offensive calling card is still going to be contact, but throwing in 10-15 HR and 30-35 2B power makes him a pretty complete player.

If he can ever learn to harness his stuff you could be taking about the next homegrown Yankees ace. Have to believe he's 100% going to be on the 40 man roster this offseason.

I wonder how much of the slow pace of promotions is logjam and how much is a revamped hitting development program. There have been so few promotions of hitters between full-season teams so far, only Isiah Gilliam really comes to mind, that it some point it starts to look like they're doing it on purpose. It's different from pitching promotions, which have been a lot more aggressive.

You mentioned the new hitting development program. In of his chats Keith Law made sort of an offhand comment on how he thinks the Yankees are doing something with all of the AAAA players they are bringing into the org to turn them into such good hitters (i.e. Voit, Tacuhman, Urshela, maybe even Maybin). Any idea is there is any truth to this? Or what it could be?

because I think that's handled a lot differently than the low minors. Where I know they've overhauled is in their organization-wide hitting development, and the personnel who man it. The linked piece is subscriber-only, but it talks about the offseason hire of Dillon Lawson to run the program. That's probably not what's driving the Urshelas and Tauchmans, it's more likely responsible for the Canaan Smiths and Ezequiel Durans.
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In comment 14530010 Dunedin81 said:

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with an OPS+ of 120 and with a good K rate of around 15%. His offensive calling card is still going to be contact, but throwing in 10-15 HR and 30-35 2B power makes him a pretty complete player.

Holy crap didnt even realize hes 25 already. But, hey fits the mold of our guys figuring it out in their mid to late twenties

Good stuff, Dune.

The Medina line is very encouraging. Hopefully this is the start of him really putting things together.

relative to expectation coming into the season. Canaan Smith has been a pleasant surprise. Ryder Green has done well, but probably not making enough contact to warrant a promotion.

Medina probably has the highest upset arm-wise, so it's good to see him turn the corner. But to go through an entire year and not find your control is certainly alarming. I do wonder why they have kept Nelson in AA for so long.

with one of his own. 7 IP (85 pitches) 1 H 1 R 1 ER 0 BB 10 K - literally one bad pitch (a solo shot) away from 7 perfect innings.

In comment 14530860 Dunedin81 said:

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with one of his own. 7 IP (85 pitches) 1 H 1 R 1 ER 0 BB 10 K - literally one bad pitch (a solo shot) away from 7 perfect innings.

Wow, that's quite a line!

Thanks

who have legit 1-3 stuff; Deivi, Medina, Gil, Abreu, Roansy, Nick Nelson, and Johnny Lasagna (Yoendrys Gomez is probably the most likely one to be in that convo next year). No guarantee any of them reaches that ceiling, not even a guarantee you get significant big-league help from any of them - build, health, consistency, distance from the bigs, each one has some sort of ding - but that collection of ceiling is exceedingly impressive.

In comment 14530871 Dunedin81 said:

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who have legit 1-3 stuff; Deivi, Medina, Gil, Abreu, Roansy, Nick Nelson, and Johnny Lasagna (Yoendrys Gomez is probably the most likely one to be in that convo next year). No guarantee any of them reaches that ceiling, not even a guarantee you get significant big-league help from any of them - build, health, consistency, distance from the bigs, each one has some sort of ding - but that collection of ceiling is exceedingly impressive.

Thanks Dune..

What about this Miguel Yajure SP. I know he's Rule 5 eligible this year, and he's all the way down in Tampa, but he's having a dynamite season down there. 2.04 ERA with 110 K's in 114 innings with only 27 walks. He's only 21 years old. Can you see him being one of those surprise candidates added to the 40 man for protection, much like Lasagna was?

The stuff isn't bad, he certainly has MLB upside, but he's low 90's with the FB and his breaking ball and curve are more average to above average than plus. Maybe the velocity or the stuff will tick up going forward, but a 4-5 projection is more reasonable for him.

I would be surprised to see him taken in the Rule 5. If they're plucking someone off an A Ball roster, they want dominant stuff (ala Medina). They might grab a pitchability guy from AAA (Cortes and Camarena were both picked, IIRC) but not Tampa.

In comment 14530618 Jim in Hoboken said:

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relative to expectation coming into the season. Canaan Smith has been a pleasant surprise. Ryder Green has done well, but probably not making enough contact to warrant a promotion. Medina probably has the highest upset arm-wise, so it's good to see him turn the corner. But to go through an entire year and not find your control is certainly alarming. I do wonder why they have kept Nelson in AA for so long.

Ezequiel Duran has been a breakout hitter this year too. OPSing .878 as a 20 year old at SI, hitting the ball with authority (11 HRs on the season), stealing bases (8/11 so far), and with a K rate that has declined as the season has worn on, very impressive.

looks very similar to Torres as a hitting prospect with excellent balance, hands, and power generated from his lower half. His body type is the same as Gleyber at age 20, but Duran needs more upper body strength and mass which will develop over the next few years. The kids got it. Oh, did I mention they both wear #25...

And Torres hit full-season at 18, while Duran will be 21. Duran hit as many HRs in <200 ABs as Torres did any year of his minor league career (he had 11 as an 18 year old in 487 ABs). Duran has more swing and miss in his game, though his K rate is trending in the right direction, and Gleyber was a natural SS. Duran is an impressive prospect, but he's not on Gleyber's level.

Not quite minors related, but this was a nice update...

Jon Morosi
✔
@jonmorosi
Busy afternoon in the Yankee Stadium bullpen: Dellin Betances threw off the mound, and now Luis Severino is about to do the same. @MLB @MLBNetwork

that he watched Severino's bullpen, albeit from afar, and said it really looked like he was letting it fly and not really holding it back.

Getting over one's skis with optimism always ends in disappointment on these pitcher injury recoveries, but it's nice to hear...

this afternoon.

Sanford has had an up and down season, which is unsurprising because he's coming out of the CUSA and has a very limited track record of facing elite competition.

Josh Smith has been destroying the NYP, which is also unsurprising as he had three years in the SEC.

In comment 14531370 Dunedin81 said:

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this afternoon. Sanford has had an up and down season, which is unsurprising because he's coming out of the CUSA and has a very limited track record of facing elite competition. Josh Smith has been destroying the NYP, which is also unsurprising as he had three years in the SEC.

Josh Smith is one of my favorite NYY prospects, the kid can flat out hit from the left side, has a good glove and can run.

who was just promoted to Trenton.
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What’s interesting is the DBacks wanted Frazier and Schimdt AND two more prospects for freaking Robbie Ray?

Seriously, talk about Yankees tax. There was a story about Cash being held at gun point, this is worse.

In comment 14532238 Jim in Hoboken said:

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What’s interesting is the DBacks wanted Frazier and Schimdt AND two more prospects for freaking Robbie Ray? Seriously, talk about Yankees tax. There was a story about Cash being held at gun point, this is worse.

I get that read as well but it is so incredibly hard to judge until they hit the bit lights. I'll just hope he has a little better stuff and better command. I'm shocked at how bad Adams have been actually.

being called up today?

the guy they just claimed off waivers. I think Acevedo is still dinged up.

Acevedo and Abreu are going to be never wases at this point.

he was a better prospect on draft day and he has a higher ceiling now. Adams had a good FB but his secondaries were (and are) meh. Schmidt has three offerings that could ultimately profile as above average to plus. Adams hasn't come back completely from elbow surgery and was a better prospect a couple years ago, but even so Schmidt was and is a higher-ceiling arm.

not unlike Justus Sheffield the results have yet to match the stuff. Who knows, maybe they never will.

Acevedo is fine. His development was delayed because they wanted it to work as a starter, but it hasn't. As he is now he's probably big-league ready when healthy, and probably would have come up in the last ten days as part of the carousel.

Clarke was 4 pitch starter. No similarly at all.

...
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who was just bumped up to Tampa.
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The minors will be more interesting to follow.

What do you think of the struggles of Pereira, Cabello, and is Salinas even playing?

.774 OPS on the season in the GCL.

Pereira has been hurt and was struggling before he was hurt. Maybe the biggest disappointment in short season this year.

Cabello has hit a lot better of late. .300 over his last 10 games, .813 OPS this month.

Ryder Green has been having a nice season. Hit his 8th HR and stole his 9th bag yesterday, OPSing .817.

I like the Nelson promotion, I would just caution (as with Deivi) against getting too worked up about the first few starts. It's a different ball in AAA, and a fly ball pitcher like Nelson who isn't used to giving up the longball is going to have an adjustment period as he figures out that warning track fly balls in AA are going to land ten rows deep in Scranton.

Has he been hurt? Only 30 games and horrible numbers?

fractured patella, I think a foul ball.

now his .280 BA is 6th and his .781 OPS is 7th in the Eastern League. And he's still one of the best gloves in MILB.

In comment 14535726 Dunedin81 said:

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now his .280 BA is 6th and his .781 OPS is 7th in the Eastern League. And he's still one of the best gloves in MILB.

The power is beginning to show up as well- now up to 9 HR, with 25 2B. All that while demonstrating an excellent idea of the strike zone- in 371 ABs, he has a career high 34 walks with only 56 Ks.

Remember that one of those HR came off Indians ace Kluber in one of his rehab starts.

the performance is great, but each has demonstrated that he needs to be at a higher level to be challenged.

In comment 14535634 Jim in Hoboken said:

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The minors will be more interesting to follow. What do you think of the struggles of Pereira, Cabello, and is Salinas even playing?

Don't sleep on Nelson being a potential rotation option in 2020. No one has ever questioned his stuff- top of the line pitches. The question was more of command and the ability to work deeper into games.

He was interesting in that he was a 2-way player when drafted, so he needed more development time on the mound. He did get up to over 120 IP last year, so he could easily be asked to throw 150+ in 2020.

In comment 14535747 Dunedin81 said:

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the performance is great, but each has demonstrated that he needs to be at a higher level to be challenged.

It is interesting that the Yanks have not been as aggressive in their promotions of prospects as they have been in past seasons- especially with the hitters.

It also seems to me that many of the pitchers really took steps forward this season, but only a handful of hitters really stood out.

and tops out at 98. A former 4th round draft pick of NYY will definitely be on the 40 man roster before the Rule 5 draft later this year.

but disagree with the second. A LOT of hitting improvements in full-season ball, and not a lot of disappointments (Brandon Wagner is the one that jumps out). Holder, Katoh, Park, Gittens, the Tampa OF, Lockridge and Stowers...these aren't stud prospects for the most part, but these are the sort of guys who fizzled in the past. Now a lot of them are taking steps forward, such that you could see them as big leaguers.

Pitching has had more disappointments, a lot of them injury-related.

he was pulled after a HBP today. Hopefully nothing big.

Going back to Schmidt, he and Adams are similar body-wise. Knowing what we know about Adams now, obviously the comparison isn't great for Schmidt. But Adams put up far better stats and was two levels ahead at the same age.

Schmidt was recovering from TJS, so I'll cut him some slack for that, but I don't think he was ever profiled as anything more than a 3rd or 4th starter.

In comment 14535726 Dunedin81 said:

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now his .280 BA is 6th and his .781 OPS is 7th in the Eastern League. And he's still one of the best gloves in MILB.

Still don’t see him as anything other than a bench piece or a trade chip. I also still don’t like the pick. At least he’s turned out better than that Dante Bichette Jr. What a waste.

In comment 14536257 Jim in Hoboken said:

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Going back to Schmidt, he and Adams are similar body-wise. Knowing what we know about Adams now, obviously the comparison isn't great for Schmidt. But Adams put up far better stats and was two levels ahead at the same age. Schmidt was recovering from TJS, so I'll cut him some slack for that, but I don't think he was ever profiled as anything more than a 3rd or 4th starter.

This is a lazy take Jim... Schmidt's stuff is some of the best of all Yankees prospects featuring a 2 seam FB that sits 95/96 with rise and command to both sides of the plate to go along with 2 plus off speed pitches in the change and curve.

The kid just needs innings and to stay healthy, but he is extremely talented and nothing similar to Adams - zero zilch nada.

2-3, 3B, 2BB, 2SB — 20BB to 6K and is now batting 405... He needs to move up to Charleston for the last few weeks of the season.

In comment 14536304 Hsilwek92 said:

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In comment 14535726 Dunedin81 said: Quote: now his .280 BA is 6th and his .781 OPS is 7th in the Eastern League. And he's still one of the best gloves in MILB. Still don’t see him as anything other than a bench piece or a trade chip. I also still don’t like the pick. At least he’s turned out better than that Dante Bichette Jr. What a waste.

An elite glove and a bat that projects as probably in the ballpark of league average with the potential to be better if he finds a little more of a power stroke is a decent return for a sandwich round pick. When he was drafted it was far from obvious that either Gleyber (still a year away from drafting him) or Didi was going to be a long-term answer at SS.

Adams had a big FB and some meh secondaries and got good results against lower level pitching. He also got hurt and hasn't been quite the same since. Schmidt has comparable velocity and better secondaries. Age is irrelevant when Schmidt missed a year and a half with TJS. Schmidt may fizzle for any of a number of reasons, for virtually any pitching prospect it's safer to bank on failure than success, but saying that because both he and Chance Adams are 6'1" they're comparable pitchers is just not a reasonable argument to make.

you get what I meant though.

Low risk, if he ever finds the strike zone again he has that huge FB.

5 IP (83 pitches) 5 H 2 R 1 ER 1 BB 8 K 6:1 GB:FB. Gave up a leadoff double and didn't lose his shit, and cruised for the rest of the way. Cautious optimism that he's turned a corner.

In comment 14537792 Dunedin81 said:

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5 IP (83 pitches) 5 H 2 R 1 ER 1 BB 8 K 6:1 GB:FB. Gave up a leadoff double and didn't lose his shit, and cruised for the rest of the way. Cautious optimism that he's turned a corner.

The article above that you linked to several days ago made it clear that his command and control issues were NOT mechanical of delivery flaw based- but were entirely above the shoulders. The article's writer made the case that the issues identified can be solved with emotional maturity- and Medina is just 20.

It could be something as simple as he is figuring out who he is, is getting comfortable with life in the U.S. (this isn't as easy as it sounds, living in a different country with a different language), and maybe just "settling down" into a lifestyle.

IMO, Medina is the type of prospect that if the light goes on, he could be in NY in months rather than years- because if he has command, his 3 pitch mix would be hard even on major league hitters.

In comment 14537805 rich in DC said:

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In comment 14537792 Dunedin81 said: Quote: 5 IP (83 pitches) 5 H 2 R 1 ER 1 BB 8 K 6:1 GB:FB. Gave up a leadoff double and didn't lose his shit, and cruised for the rest of the way. Cautious optimism that he's turned a corner. The article above that you linked to several days ago made it clear that his command and control issues were NOT mechanical of delivery flaw based- but were entirely above the shoulders. The article's writer made the case that the issues identified can be solved with emotional maturity- and Medina is just 20. It could be something as simple as he is figuring out who he is, is getting comfortable with life in the U.S. (this isn't as easy as it sounds, living in a different country with a different language), and maybe just "settling down" into a lifestyle. IMO, Medina is the type of prospect that if the light goes on, he could be in NY in months rather than years- because if he has command, his 3 pitch mix would be hard even on major league hitters.

Thanks rich. Good points.

specifically his falling off to one side when he pitches.

But the bigger issue is the one you identify, that he has been particularly hard on himself when he has made mistakes or faced adversity (errors and such) and they've turned into huge innings. The comparison to DL Hall is an interesting one, but Hall is more consistently wild than Medina is (when Medina loses the plate he's all over the place, but when he's on his BB rate is pretty conventional). If he has actually turned the corner, Medina is EASILY a top 100 pitching prospect in baseball.

In comment 14536481 Dunedin81 said:

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Adams had a big FB and some meh secondaries and got good results against lower level pitching. He also got hurt and hasn't been quite the same since. Schmidt has comparable velocity and better secondaries. Age is irrelevant when Schmidt missed a year and a half with TJS. Schmidt may fizzle for any of a number of reasons, for virtually any pitching prospect it's safer to bank on failure than success, but saying that because both he and Chance Adams are 6'1" they're comparable pitchers is just not a reasonable argument to make.

People also forget two key details.

One- Adams was a juco reliever converted to a SP- learned on the go, and the surgery did him no favors. I would wait one more year to see if he can recover his form- but IMO, he may be trade material when they need a 40 man spot in October.

Two- Schmidt was the ace of his University of South Carolina team- an SEC powerhouse and National title contender- who got hurt right before the draft and had TJ. This isn't some johnny come lately to pitching- he was widely considered a 1st round talent prior to the injury. He might not be a front of the rotation SP (though he needs to get another year away from TJ before trying to figure out what he is), but he certainly is NYY rotation level.

Adams had some hype when he was carving up low-level hitters, and rightfully so. Even snuck on to the back end of some Top 100 lists very briefly. But Schmidt's bona fides, his pitchability, and the depth of his repertoire were superior to Adams from the start.

Joey Bart and Heliot Ramos just got promoted so I wanted to see them in person. Matt Manning was on the mound for Erie. He sat mostly 93. Reasonably impressive but for one bad pitch (an oppo HR to RF). He worked around Bart his first AB and then struck him out on four pitches his second. Bart is still adjusting to higher level pitching so it's not all that surprising. He'll probably be back at AA to start next year. Had a nice snap throw that almost nabbed a runner straying too far off first.

Ramos had a couple lackluster ABs. Grounded out off the end of the bat his first time up and grounded out softly the second. Certainly not enough to pass judgment.

Fargas for Richmond isn't much of a prospect but he had a couple highlight reel catches out in LF.

NJ.com profiled him today. If this is accurate and his stuff has really ticked up, he could be a legit mid-rotation guy and a tougher Rule 5 decision than I thought.
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In Kiley's chat wrap he had nice things to say about Alexander Vargas and Kevin Alcantara (see the link).

Also Clarke Schmidt's 2nd Trenton start went much better than his first, 6.2 IP (92 pitches) 2 H 0 R 0 ER 0 BB 9 K 1 WP, retired 17 in a row at one point.
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from SAL broadcasters. Interesting stuff.
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In comment 14539024 Dunedin81 said:

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from SAL broadcasters. Interesting stuff. Link - ( New Window )

Thanks. Love the stuff on Gill and Caleb

In comment 14538278 Dunedin81 said:

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NJ.com profiled him today. If this is accurate and his stuff has really ticked up, he could be a legit mid-rotation guy and a tougher Rule 5 decision than I thought. Link - ( New Window )

It is shaping up to be a wild November for roster shaping.

Right now, the following guys will be FA at the end of the season: Romine, Betances, CC, Maybin, Gardner, Didi and EE. Chapman has an opt-out, which he MIGHT use.

However, the following are ALL on the 60 day DL and have to be added back to the roster or dropped off: Barrett (likely to get dropped), Betances (will be a FA), Heller (probably add), Mongomery (sure to be added), Sevy (sure to be added), Andujar (sure to be added), Bird (I would think drop, but the Yanks seem to like him), Ellsbury (reports were the insurance on his contract runs out at the end of the season- is this the point where they cut bait?), Stanton (sure to be added).

So that means at least 7 FA open roster spots- with an 8th if Chapman opts out. However, at the same time, at least 4 guys must be added from the 60 day DL, with a couple more ?- Heller, Bird, Ellsbury- so it could be 7- which would negate all roster spots opened for FA.

At the same time, the Yanks have a number of guys on the 40 who could be DFAd or traded to open spots. Some possible drops/trade material: Chance Adams, Dull, Hale, Cessa (will be out of options after this season), Cortes, Ford, Valera, Wade.

So that is up to 8 guys who could be possibly be DFAd or traded currently on the 40 (though they could always surprise and deal some others).

Furthermore, several key prospects must be added to the roster or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft: Florial, Mike King, Deivi Garcia, Luis Gil, Luis Medina, Nick Nelson, and possibly Miguel Yajure. That is at least 7 guys who are very likely or necessary to be added or taken.

Others meriting consideration to be added to the roster or exposed are: Kyle Holder, Hoy Jun Park, Trey Amburgey, J.P. Feyereisen. That is another 4 possibilities.

Doing the math, and it will be extraordinarily difficult to protect everyone or find enough spaces without making some hard decisions.

Looking big picture, I think that the Yanks have no choice but to let Ellsbury and Bird go simply to find roster spots for players who need protection or will be playable in 2020.

IMO, guys like Heller, Feyereisen, and Cessa are really on the bubble because guys with better stuff are close enough to be ready in 2020.

Even then, it is hard to come up with a combination of 40 that protects everyone they likely want to keep- while still leaving room to sign FA like Didi and maybe Betances- or guys in the FA market.

postseason rich - guys close being traded for guys further down the line.

In comment 14539085 section125 said:

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postseason rich - guys close being traded for guys further down the line.

Ironically, Gil was a guy they got in a roster clearing move- they traded Jake Cave(!) for Gil.

In comment 14539095 rich in DC said:

Quote:

In comment 14539085 section125 said: Quote: postseason rich - guys close being traded for guys further down the line. Ironically, Gil was a guy they got in a roster clearing move- they traded Jake Cave(!) for Gil.

As long as he can put off losing people while get something back in return.

for free agents and for some flexibility too. There's roughly a 100% chance than any projections we try to make now will be wrong because of that. And guys like Amburgey and even King, while I like them, are of limited risk of selection, even smaller risk of sticking, and frankly wouldn't be a huge loss to the farm if they did.

The scouting report on him was 55-60 FB, with inconsistent secondaries that flashed. The discussion on him was more about the off-the-field story with his brother and the fact that we saved money to sign Sauer. Oops.

Would have been nice to have Pearson, no? Just saying.

Looking at our pitching now, you have to wonder how come Cash didn't package these middling prospects who are probably not long for the organization and get some serviceable help for the post-season run. I guess you have to have takers first.

However, I can't imagine grouping Adams, Acevedo, Abreu and Frazier together couldn't have gotten someone good in return. Take Estrada, we all like him, but where is he going to play? Shuffling him between AAA and the majors next year won't do him or his trade value any good.

Stroman was the only clear upgrade we (apparently) had a shot at. Otherwise, was Robbie Ray much of an upgrade? We should have grabbed a depth guy, but you're not dealing Frazier or Abreu for a fringe starter.

explains his absence, might explain why he'd been scuffling a little bit too.

said both Severino and Betances will be back by mid-September.

Great news.

I approach the trading with the Yankees calculus the following way:

A) I assume they will be anxious to deal because for decades they have been and this is the closest they have been in years. Hence as the deadline approaches I assume that maybe Torres or some other real prize relative to what I trade is available

b) I am cautious because their ability to identify bargains I don't even know I have is legendary

c) More than half the teams fans were in a go for it mode as of 7/31 especially with the wildcards

d) I don't know and Cashman does how close his own minor leaguers are and I don't know if Severino/Bentances/Hicks/Voit/Stanton are coming back this year. So I assume more desperation than Cashman may feel.

By this time Cashman knows his odds of re signing Betances. Chapman opting out.

Come winter, the Yankees have a ton they can trade and some pieces they can buy...for us holding for the five year window ahead makes sense.

I think some GM'S simply misjudged our sense of market urgency. And I think some of the pitchers the media mentioned were not high on Yankee lists given their analysis.

just imo

Ezequiel Duran with his 13th HR for SI, 1st in NYP and 2nd in all of Class A Advanced (Franklin Labour, a year older at 21, hit 14 but has already been promoted to the SAL)


Tom Kosensky
@mryclept
·
11h
Final line on Mike King (
@swbrailriders
): 6.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 11 K. 99 pitches/59 strikes. Gave up 2-run HR in 6th and two of those BB in 7th. He did a solid job of generating ground balls....HR not withstanding. #Yankees #milb #PinstripePride


Tom Kosensky
@mryclept
19-year old Yoendrys Gomez (
@ChasRiverDogs
) will be fun to watch in 2020. Tonight: 6 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 8 K. Run scored on annoying WP with two outs in the 6th.... #Yankees #milb #PinstripePride


Josh Breaux (
@Big_Boshy
) hits his 10th HR of the season in his 41st game. Hopefully he will get to play a full season next year, big offensive talent


Virginia Yankee
@VirginiaYankee1
·
14h
Chris Gittens with his 22nd HR; his OPS stands at .904. Yes he is older and he Ks a lot, but his OBP is close to .400

17 year old Kevin Alcantara has upped his BA 35 points (to .261) in 10 games. 4-6 across a DH today with 2 2Bs. Strike zone in the GCL around 20%, which is particularly impressive considering he's 6'6". His power will likely be the last tool to develop, but what he is now - a true CF who runs well, covers the plate, and displays an above average hit tool - is awfully impressive at his age.

Thanks.

Slider was also impressive and he was commanding it well. Thought the change was a little too hard, not enough separation from the FB, and so looked a little too hittable. Liked the command, said a little bit of deception, thought if he could improve the change he could be a good #4 or even #3 starter.

Nick Nelson had a solid 3rd outing at AAA, 5 IP 2 H 1 R 1 ER 3 BB 8 K with a 5:5 GB:FB. His bugaboo is efficiency, so if and when he gets the nod expect him to be more of a 15-18 out guy early on. Pitching to contact too much could be a problem as he's more of a FB guy


NYY 3rd rounder Jake Sanford having himself a night, 3-3, 2 R, RBI, BB, his 13th 2B, and an OF assist for SI (note: finished 3-4)

Tom Kosensky
@mryclept
·
12h
Luis Medina (
@TampaTarpons
): 5.2 IP, 2 H, 3 R (0 ER), 2 BB, 4 K. 92 pitches/51 strikes. 6th inning was rather annoying. Anyway, whatever or whoever flipped the switch, here is hoping it stays in the “ON” position. #Yankees #milb #PinstripePride

Tom Kosensky
@mryclept
·
12h
Roansy Contreras (
@ChasRiverDogs
): 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K. Teenager keeps getting stronger and stronger and stronger.... #Yankees #milb #PinstripePride

Daniel (Brooklyn): Its just a 6+ week stretch but its hard to ignore Luis Medina's tools- does this stretch/tool kit elevate him into the top 10 (or even 5) of Yankees prospects in postseason lists?

Ben Badler: He's one of the more difficult prospects to pin down, because the gap between his pure stuff and his performance (until recently) might be the biggest in baseball.

Ben Badler: There are still a ton of red flags there, but it's good to at least see some signs of progress with him.

This is his 2nd season of good hitting. And he may be the best glove in the minors. No idea where he could fit on this team though unless yanks are unable to keep Didi. And no idea if he can hit well while playing a utility role.
Can't help myself though I love elite fielding.

Josh Breaux with quite a night, 3-5, a 3B shy of the cycle, 2 R, 4 RBI, his 9th 2B and his 11th Hr. Stowers (33), Smith (13), and Lockridge (21) have each swiped a bag for Charleston too


Doesn’t get much better than Clarke Schmidt’s outing, 7 IP (88 pitches) 3 H 0 R 0 ER 0 BB 5 K 1 WP 9:5 GB:FB, 2.37 ERA in his 3 AAA outings

(note: should have been AA outings)

In comment 14546757 TJ said:

Quote:

This is his 2nd season of good hitting. And he may be the best glove in the minors. No idea where he could fit on this team though unless yanks are unable to keep Didi. And no idea if he can hit well while playing a utility role. Can't help myself though I love elite fielding.

I think he's made himself at least a secondary trade chip. He's older at this point, but not unconscionably so. I'm an MILB nerd, I recognize that most of these kids won't make the bigs for more than a cup of coffee, if at all, and that if they do it's at least even money it'll be in another uniform.

would be resigned. Now I'm not so sure. I love Didi but the Yankees may move on depending on the price tag.

but I'm pretty sure they're not going to pencil in a 25 year old contact hitter without a AAA AB to replace him just because they like the glove.

In comment 14547448 Dunedin81 said:

Quote:

but I'm pretty sure they're not going to pencil in a 25 year old contact hitter without a AAA AB to replace him just because they like the glove.

Torres is the replacement to Didi at SS and DJ would play 2B for most of the games. Holder makes a nice middle infield back up with that wizard type glove and left handed bat.

Didi in 250+ at bats this year is a .07 WAR player, he's only been okay since his return. His On Base % is sub .300

Had a nice start for AAA Scranton last night. 6 shutout innings, 3 hits, 6 Ks, 1 BB. Kind of a lost season for King but at least he will finish the season strong and prepare for 2020. With Deivi Garcia, Michael King, Clarke Schmidt, Brian Keller, Nick Nelson, Adonis Rosa, etc. the Yanks will have some good, young arms knocking on the door next season.

a lot of good info in there. Some quibbles, but it's clear work went into it.
Link - ( New Window )

In comment 14547465 JPinstripes said:

Quote:

In comment 14547448 Dunedin81 said: Quote: but I'm pretty sure they're not going to pencil in a 25 year old contact hitter without a AAA AB to replace him just because they like the glove. Torres is the replacement to Didi at SS and DJ would play 2B for most of the games. Holder makes a nice middle infield back up with that wizard type glove and left handed bat. Didi in 250+ at bats this year is a .07 WAR player, he's only been okay since his return. His On Base % is sub .300

I think Estrada would get first crack at the backup job, unless he is dealt this winter.

In comment 14547557 rich in DC said:

Quote:

In comment 14547465 JPinstripes said: Quote: In comment 14547448 Dunedin81 said: Quote: but I'm pretty sure they're not going to pencil in a 25 year old contact hitter without a AAA AB to replace him just because they like the glove. Torres is the replacement to Didi at SS and DJ would play 2B for most of the games. Holder makes a nice middle infield back up with that wizard type glove and left handed bat. Didi in 250+ at bats this year is a .07 WAR player, he's only been okay since his return. His On Base % is sub .300 I think Estrada would get first crack at the backup job, unless he is dealt this winter.

I like Estrada, but more as a 2nd baseman, not a SS. Wade and Holder and perhaps Park will stick at SS long term.

so I'll go ahead and predict it again. This offseason they're going to have to address the glut of middle IF in the high minors, through trades, potential release or minor league FA, through the Rule V, etc etc. And the way they handle that will demonstrate their internal scouting appraisal of the players in question. Between Wade, Estrada, Park, Katoh, Holder and Valera they will probably need to fill a utility role with the big club and three jobs at AAA.

In comment 14547572 JPinstripes said:

Quote:

In comment 14547557 rich in DC said: Quote: In comment 14547465 JPinstripes said: Quote: In comment 14547448 Dunedin81 said: Quote: but I'm pretty sure they're not going to pencil in a 25 year old contact hitter without a AAA AB to replace him just because they like the glove. Torres is the replacement to Didi at SS and DJ would play 2B for most of the games. Holder makes a nice middle infield back up with that wizard type glove and left handed bat. Didi in 250+ at bats this year is a .07 WAR player, he's only been okay since his return. His On Base % is sub .300 I think Estrada would get first crack at the backup job, unless he is dealt this winter. I like Estrada, but more as a 2nd baseman, not a SS. Wade and Holder and perhaps Park will stick at SS long term.

This may be true, but I seriously doubt Wade sticks with the team this winter (trade or DFA is a good possibility) because guys with better offensive profiles need a AAA spot.

Park and Holder likely need some significant AAA ABs. Both are still developing and sitting on the bench in NY probabl does not do them any good.

Estrada probably would have already established himself in NY except for the recovery period required after the shooting. He showed real upside in his time with the Yanks this year. He does not need further time in AAA- and with DJ's flexibility, it would be more likely than not that Estrada would start at least once a week to get others rest with DJ sits or rotates to other spots.

Have a look at these stats and tell me which player is which - Wade or Estrada AAA 2019

296/352/425 - 19 doubles, 4 triples, 51 runs, 38 RBIs, 13 SB
266/313/452 - 17 doubles, 2 triples, 39 runs, 32 RBIs, 3 SB

***Wade has 50 more at bats.

and Wade has most of three years at SWB, while Estrada has about half of one.

But everything considered - Wade at only 1 year older (not sure 23 to 24 age matters at AAA) has a much higher batting average, On Base %, stolen bases, runs scored and is definitely the better fielding shortstop of the two.

I don't think it's a forgone conclusion that Wade can't be a productive offensive player at the MLB level, he is still only 24 with plus run and defense.

Which is where almost everyone had Ford placed, permanently.

The guy can rake, at least until the major league pitchers find any holes in his swing.

In comment 14547551 Dunedin81 said:

Quote:

a lot of good info in there. Some quibbles, but it's clear work went into it. Link - ( New Window )

Thanks. Some of these 'guys' are BABIES. How accurate can these predictions be??

In comment 14547713 JPinstripes said:

Quote:

Have a look at these stats and tell me which player is which - Wade or Estrada AAA 2019 296/352/425 - 19 doubles, 4 triples, 51 runs, 38 RBIs, 13 SB 266/313/452 - 17 doubles, 2 triples, 39 runs, 32 RBIs, 3 SB ***Wade has 50 more at bats.

False equivalency.

Wade is a living example of the classic AAAA player- does just fine at AAA, but simply can't get it done in the majors. 196 ABs over 3 seasons with the Yanks- a dreadful .175 BA, .247 OBP and career OPS+ of 36- keeping in mind that a replacement level player would have an OPS+ of 100.

In contrast, Estrada (while having only 2019 in the majors), has an OPS+ of 93, has a BA of .246 and an OBP of .283. Not exciting, but at least he is reasonably close to a replacement level player- which is adequate for a backup.

In short, Wade has had numerous opportunities over 3 seasons to show that he is more than a AAAA player- and has flopped each and every time. Estrada has shown he belongs by at least being a replacement level player.

196! There is no way to know what he is from 196 PA's. Every word of that AAAA nonsense was exactly what said about Gardner when he was young. Gardner had + speed and + glove but the word was he couldn't hit enough to be valuable in MLB.

If one of the tanking teams was smart they'd steal Wade from the Yankees for a MiLB pitching lottery ticket and give him 1000 PA's to see if he can hit enough for his + speed and glove to work in MLB.

but you lost me at "False equivalency"... Perhaps you meant "False equivalence?" Anyway, referencing both Wade and Estrada AAA numbers this year is quite relevant to the type of players they are and probably project to be.

MLB stats for either player are to small and inconsistent of a proper sample size to make any judgement IMV.

strike zone is this ump(or all umps) is not calling pitches the same height off the ground as strikes to shorter players.

I cannot comprehend that the Yankees are not screaming at the league office on a weekly basis.

In comment 14548135 Jay in Toronto said:

Quote:

In comment 14547551 Dunedin81 said: Quote: a lot of good info in there. Some quibbles, but it's clear work went into it. Link - ( New Window ) Thanks. Some of these 'guys' are BABIES. How accurate can these predictions be??

They're not particularly accurate, but they're drawing on national pubs, a little bit of personal observation, and maybe some chatter if they're close enough to be privy to it, and from there you get a sense of how these guys might be valued by the Yankees and by other teams. Outside of the guys with legit star potential that's about the best you can ask.

C Donny Sands, who has struggled offensively at Tampa but who appears to be making strides defensively (CS rate up, attempts against him down, PB rate halved).

2B Brandon Wagner, who broke out last year at Tampa but who has struggled mightily this year at Trenton (HRs dropped from 21 to 8, hitting sub-Mendoza)

OF Josh Stowers, who has been tattooing the ball all month for Charleston and whose 33 SBs lead the farm.

RHP Daniel Bies, a 6'8" hurler who killed it at Charleston but whose command has deserted him at Tampa.

And RHP Glenn Otto, the most talented of the bunch, limited to just 56 IP so far by injuries but with legit 2-3 stuff if he can stay healthy and it all comes together.

In comment 14548832 Dunedin81 said:

Quote:

C Donny Sands, who has struggled offensively at Tampa but who appears to be making strides defensively (CS rate up, attempts against him down, PB rate halved). 2B Brandon Wagner, who broke out last year at Tampa but who has struggled mightily this year at Trenton (HRs dropped from 21 to 8, hitting sub-Mendoza) OF Josh Stowers, who has been tattooing the ball all month for Charleston and whose 33 SBs lead the farm. RHP Daniel Bies, a 6'8" hurler who killed it at Charleston but whose command has deserted him at Tampa. And RHP Glenn Otto, the most talented of the bunch, limited to just 56 IP so far by injuries but with legit 2-3 stuff if he can stay healthy and it all comes together.

Just 5 - is that a normal size contingent for AFL?

In comment 14548236 JPinstripes said:

Quote:

but you lost me at "False equivalency"... Perhaps you meant "False equivalence?" Anyway, referencing both Wade and Estrada AAA numbers this year is quite relevant to the type of players they are and probably project to be. MLB stats for either player are to small and inconsistent of a proper sample size to make any judgement IMV.

AAA numbers are meaningless for projecting MLB performance, IMO. I've seen far too many AAA superstars who can't even hit their own weight in the major leagues. The numbers tell you what they can do against AAA pitching and nothing more.

However, if you want to go there, I would strongly suggest that you take note that Wade has been in AAA for three seasons now- and has not gotten better over time. His best AAA season was in 2017. He regressed significantly in 2018. He recovered somewhat in 2019- but the numbers are still WELL short of his 2017 production. So, which AAA numbers do you want to use? 2018? 2017? 2019? He is 24 years old- he is what he is at this point.

A second issue that is also rather important to the discussion- Wade is also out of options after this season. Estrada still has an option remaining. In other words, Wade is in the "must make the team in 2020" mode. They can't send him to the minors next year without having him clear waivers.

As for the small sample sizes, Wade has now had multiple opportunities stretched out over 3 seasons. Quite simply, not only does he have no record of success, but he has not shown any indication that he can even be a league average hitter.

Estrada has just a single season of AAA (he lost 2018 recovering from a gunshot wound). He also has a similar short period of MLB opportunity.

The difference is stark. Both Wade and Estrada were used in a backup capacity- neither were given extended starting opportunities. Wade has failed each and every opportunity given him over a 3 year period. Estrada has not shined, but was at least replacement level in his opportunity- which is already more than Wade has ever done in the majors.

The fact remains that the Yanks are in a window of championship opportunities that will extend for a number of years. That means roster spots are at a premium and they can't keep giving opportunities to guys who can't get the job done- especially when they have had multiple chances. They need players who can come up and fill the role they were brought in for.

Some, like Urshula, have overachieved compared to expectations. Others, like Cortes, struggled at first but then steadied themselves and have become at least useful.

Still others failed in their initial opportunities- but then at least found some success later- like Higashioka who was pretty bad in 2018- but has been useful when needed in 2019. I put Frazier in this category too- was awful in 2017 and got almost no opportunity in 2018- but produced (at least offensively but not defensively) this season.

At some point, a player has to show SOMETHING, because others are always right behind him. An out-of-options Wade offers next to nothing to the Yanks, especially with no indications that he can be even league average with the bat.

Maybe Wade goes somewhere else and becomes a starter- but the Yanks don't have the time to wait years for a backup to figure it out and fail time after time. They will just move on to the next option.

In comment 14548857 Del Shofner said:

Quote:

In comment 14548832 Dunedin81 said: Quote: C Donny Sands, who has struggled offensively at Tampa but who appears to be making strides defensively (CS rate up, attempts against him down, PB rate halved). 2B Brandon Wagner, who broke out last year at Tampa but who has struggled mightily this year at Trenton (HRs dropped from 21 to 8, hitting sub-Mendoza) OF Josh Stowers, who has been tattooing the ball all month for Charleston and whose 33 SBs lead the farm. RHP Daniel Bies, a 6'8" hurler who killed it at Charleston but whose command has deserted him at Tampa. And RHP Glenn Otto, the most talented of the bunch, limited to just 56 IP so far by injuries but with legit 2-3 stuff if he can stay healthy and it all comes together. Just 5 - is that a normal size contingent for AFL?

I think they get to send two more, but I could be mistaken.

Eligibility Rules

The eligibility rules to play in the AFL are simple.

The roster size is 30 players per team.

Each Major League organization is required to provide six players subject to the following requirements:

All Triple-A and Double-A players are eligible, provided the players are on at least a Double-A level roster no later than Aug. 1.

One player below the Double-A level is allowed per Major League team.

One foreign player is allowed, as long as the player does not reside in a country that participates in winter ball, as part of the Caribbean Confederation or the Australian winter league.

No players with more than one year of credited Major League service as of August 31 are eligible, except a team may select one player picked in the most recently concluded Major League Rule 5 Draft.

To be eligible, players on Minor League disabled lists must be activated at least 45 days before the conclusion of their respective seasons.

is that only Brandon Wagner is presently playing at AA or above.

In comment 14548942 Dunedin81 said:

Quote:

is that only Brandon Wagner is presently playing at AA or above.

Yes, I looked at your post again after reading those rules and was wondering about that. But what I posted is from MLB.com, so go figure.

didn't realize how tough he had it
Link - ( New Window )

In comment 14548861 rich in DC said:

Quote:

In comment 14548236 JPinstripes said: Quote: but you lost me at "False equivalency"... Perhaps you meant "False equivalence?" Anyway, referencing both Wade and Estrada AAA numbers this year is quite relevant to the type of players they are and probably project to be. MLB stats for either player are to small and inconsistent of a proper sample size to make any judgement IMV. AAA numbers are meaningless for projecting MLB performance, IMO. I've seen far too many AAA superstars who can't even hit their own weight in the major leagues. The numbers tell you what they can do against AAA pitching and nothing more. However, if you want to go there, I would strongly suggest that you take note that Wade has been in AAA for three seasons now- and has not gotten better over time. His best AAA season was in 2017. He regressed significantly in 2018. He recovered somewhat in 2019- but the numbers are still WELL short of his 2017 production. So, which AAA numbers do you want to use? 2018? 2017? 2019? He is 24 years old- he is what he is at this point. A second issue that is also rather important to the discussion- Wade is also out of options after this season. Estrada still has an option remaining. In other words, Wade is in the "must make the team in 2020" mode. They can't send him to the minors next year without having him clear waivers. As for the small sample sizes, Wade has now had multiple opportunities stretched out over 3 seasons. Quite simply, not only does he have no record of success, but he has not shown any indication that he can even be a league average hitter. Estrada has just a single season of AAA (he lost 2018 recovering from a gunshot wound). He also has a similar short period of MLB opportunity. The difference is stark. Both Wade and Estrada were used in a backup capacity- neither were given extended starting opportunities. Wade has failed each and every opportunity given him over a 3 year period. Estrada has not shined, but was at least replacement level in his opportunity- which is already more than Wade has ever done in the majors. The fact remains that the Yanks are in a window of championship opportunities that will extend for a number of years. That means roster spots are at a premium and they can't keep giving opportunities to guys who can't get the job done- especially when they have had multiple chances. They need players who can come up and fill the role they were brought in for. Some, like Urshula, have overachieved compared to expectations. Others, like Cortes, struggled at first but then steadied themselves and have become at least useful. Still others failed in their initial opportunities- but then at least found some success later- like Higashioka who was pretty bad in 2018- but has been useful when needed in 2019. I put Frazier in this category too- was awful in 2017 and got almost no opportunity in 2018- but produced (at least offensively but not defensively) this season. At some point, a player has to show SOMETHING, because others are always right behind him. An out-of-options Wade offers next to nothing to the Yanks, especially with no indications that he can be even league average with the bat. Maybe Wade goes somewhere else and becomes a starter- but the Yanks don't have the time to wait years for a backup to figure it out and fail time after time. They will just move on to the next option.

I understand your take Rich and it's well articulated. Wade has 3 years of options remaining according to Sportac FYI.

I am of the belief that Wade will be a guy that has 350+ OBA potential, combined with a very good glove and plus speed. This is a valuable asset for NYY or any other team for that matter. The kid hits and produces at AAA consistently and is inside a development process.