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NFT: Stock Market Investing & Timing

DC Gmen Fan : 8/14/2019 11:11 am
Not asking for a crystal ball reading, but I'm a novice investor outside of my retirement accounts. I have a little money in some taxable investments but have been pretty timid about putting anything in the market because I felt like we were at a high point.

As I read all the doom and gloom about where the markets could be headed, I'm actually taking a look at some relatively uncomplicated investments should the price go down and would like to get some money in. Would an investment like SPY (sp500 etf) be a generally good place to maybe buy a few shares on a regular basis?

Thanks guys
sure the index ETFs  
ron mexico : 8/14/2019 11:14 am : link
are an efficient way to get broad equity exposure.

QQQ if you prefer the Nasdaq 100 to the S&P 500.

Yes  
giants#1 : 8/14/2019 11:15 am : link
SPY is a pretty broad based fund and you definitely want to divide your total investment into batches (quarterly, monthly, whatever).

Unless you know when we're going to announce new tariffs or subsequently announce a delay in them!
I think Warren Buffett  
OnTap : 8/14/2019 11:15 am : link
said something to the effect of if there was only one investment he would recommend it would be the S&P 500.

Broad exposure, plus a dividend you can reinvest
RE: I think Warren Buffett  
Giantophile : 8/14/2019 11:25 am : link
In comment 14530065 OnTap said:
Quote:
said something to the effect of if there was only one investment he would recommend it would be the S&P 500.

Broad exposure, plus a dividend you can reinvest


Yep, I saw a segment when Buffett said for most people the play is to simply put it in a low fee index fund pegged to the market and don't touch it. I use vanguard and would recommend.
we are in for a major correcting  
JerrysKids : 8/14/2019 11:26 am : link
wait for a 20% dip and then jump in.
A recession warning indicator went off today  
The_Boss : 8/14/2019 11:31 am : link
When the yield on the 2 year T-note inverted with the 10 year Note. Now does that mean a recession is imminent? Probably not, but it bears watching.
how about FOREX? i see alot of instagram peeps pushing to  
GMAN4LIFE : 8/14/2019 11:37 am : link
trade that.

DC Gmen Fan...  
M.S. : 8/14/2019 11:38 am : link

...one approach may be ease your money into an investment over time, dollar averaging your cost.

Say you have $12,000 to invest... you could deploy $1,000 a month over 12 months. The easiest, most efficient way would be to have, say, a money market account at Vanguard and then set up the automatic investment plan. Just a thought.
RE: how about FOREX? i see alot of instagram peeps pushing to  
Jim in Fairfax : 8/14/2019 11:44 am : link
In comment 14530105 GMAN4LIFE said:
Quote:
trade that.

That’s gambling, not investing.
Thanks MS  
DC Gmen Fan : 8/14/2019 11:46 am : link
Yeah I have everything in Schwab and might just set something like that up. Just been too timid to jump in.
RE: Thanks MS  
M.S. : 8/14/2019 11:49 am : link
In comment 14530121 DC Gmen Fan said:
Quote:
Yeah I have everything in Schwab and might just set something like that up. Just been too timid to jump in.

I hear ya... "timid" is my middle name when it comes to investing.
If You’re in Schwab  
Samiam : 8/14/2019 12:03 pm : link
They have a 500 ETF that’s just as cheap as Vanguard and probably has better customer service. Their sweep fund pays about 2% which is pretty good today and move money to the 500 fund as mentioned above
If You Are a Long Term Investor  
Bernie : 8/14/2019 12:07 pm : link
dollar cost average your investments by entering the market on the dips. Index funds (either mutual funds or ETF's) will be your best option to gain broad exposure. You can also gain specific industry exposure using a similar strategy.
VTI  
rsmith32 : 8/14/2019 12:17 pm : link
.
RE: RE: how about FOREX? i see alot of instagram peeps pushing to  
Mike from SI : 8/14/2019 12:19 pm : link
In comment 14530115 Jim in Fairfax said:
Quote:
In comment 14530105 GMAN4LIFE said:


Quote:


trade that.



That’s gambling, not investing.


DING DING DING
RE: A recession warning indicator went off today  
Heisenberg : 8/14/2019 12:30 pm : link
In comment 14530094 The_Boss said:
Quote:
When the yield on the 2 year T-note inverted with the 10 year Note. Now does that mean a recession is imminent? Probably not, but it bears watching.


Yield curve inverted, Schiller PE still very high. Germany on brink of recession. Likelihood of hard Brexit. Unwise trade war with China. I mean, if we don't have a recession or correction in the next year, it'll be a stunner.
VTSAX or VFIAF  
Randy_Lahey : 8/14/2019 12:34 pm : link
are great Vanguard funds
There’s no reason for the ‘unwise China trade war’  
MetsAreBack : 8/14/2019 12:40 pm : link
Political views on here
The vast majority of non political economists agree  
Bockman : 8/14/2019 12:43 pm : link
That the China trade war is loooong overdue.
RE: we are in for a major correcting  
Metnut : 8/14/2019 12:47 pm : link
In comment 14530082 JerrysKids said:
Quote:
wait for a 20% dip and then jump in.


People have been saying this for years. If you had listened to this type of advice, you would've missed out on record growth.

If anyone was smart enough to know when contraction was coming, they'd likely be making money on short sales and other types of trades.
..  
Named Later : 8/14/2019 12:59 pm : link
May I suggest to the OP -- go to the MarketWatch website and just follow along with the Market action. You can set up a Watchlist with the Funds mentioned on this thread, to see how they behave in the face of world events like Brexit and Trade Wars. Make a few "paper" trades without committing your cash just yet.

You can park your money in Vanguard or Fidelity's Money Market Fund, and get about 2% while you get a feel for this.

Political or not.....Trade Wars and Tariffs tend to disrupt the Market. Just look at the last 2 weeks action.
RE: The vast majority of non political economists agree  
giants#1 : 8/14/2019 1:01 pm : link
In comment 14530178 Bockman said:
Quote:
That the China trade war is loooong overdue.


I think they agree that doing something to combat China's mercantilist policies is overdo. Not sure they agree on using tariff's to try and achieve the final goal.
RE: The vast majority of non political economists agree  
Heisenberg : 8/14/2019 1:02 pm : link
In comment 14530178 Bockman said:
Quote:
That the China trade war is loooong overdue.


Ok, fine. Let's take the politics and wisdom of the trade war out of it. Can we get bipartisan agreement that in the short term the market doesn't like it?
RE: RE: The vast majority of non political economists agree  
Bill L : 8/14/2019 1:10 pm : link
In comment 14530204 Heisenberg said:
Quote:
In comment 14530178 Bockman said:


Quote:


That the China trade war is loooong overdue.



Ok, fine. Let's take the politics and wisdom of the trade war out of it. Can we get bipartisan agreement that in the short term the market doesn't like it?


Only if you're certain.
Since half of BBI says "buy" and half says "sell"  
WideRight : 8/14/2019 1:13 pm : link
then the market is priced about right. But no one knows where it's going to be tomorrow, or next month or next year....

That's the great thing about it; you have to take some risk to get some benefit
RE: RE: RE: The vast majority of non political economists agree  
Heisenberg : 8/14/2019 1:15 pm : link
In comment 14530218 Bill L said:
Quote:
In comment 14530204 Heisenberg said:


Quote:


In comment 14530178 Bockman said:


Quote:


That the China trade war is loooong overdue.



Ok, fine. Let's take the politics and wisdom of the trade war out of it. Can we get bipartisan agreement that in the short term the market doesn't like it?



Only if you're certain.


Ok, I guess we can't.
RE: The vast majority of non political economists agree  
M.S. : 8/14/2019 1:19 pm : link
In comment 14530178 Bockman said:
Quote:
That the China trade war is loooong overdue.

Long overdue, perhaps... but how best to fight it is the real question.
IMO  
jrdinsc : 8/14/2019 1:49 pm : link
...the absolute best option is to invest regularly, automatically, and stop trying to time the market. The posters saying to invest small chunks of your money automatically over the next x-time period are spot-on.

Do a search on trying to time the market vs. regular investment. Reddit is a good resource for this kind of research.

Good luck, and have fun watching your money grow. Do not panic.

-Joe
I think trying to time the market  
UConn4523 : 8/14/2019 2:17 pm : link
is fine as long as its continued and non-extreme. For example if you invest $5,000 a year don't invest it all on one specific time each year. Heavying up on hunches is fine every so often, but consistently adding $300 per month otherwise will always give you good entry points and lessen the chance of taking a hit on a downturn. But you need to do this for the long haul. If you are close to retirement its a much different strategy.
RE: IMO  
BlackLight : 8/14/2019 2:26 pm : link
In comment 14530269 jrdinsc said:
Quote:
...the absolute best option is to invest regularly, automatically, and stop trying to time the market. The posters saying to invest small chunks of your money automatically over the next x-time period are spot-on.



I agree, except to say that investing a large chunk of money in smaller, regularly timed bites is still, in effect, an attempt to time the market.

I think if you're going to be a long-term investor, and are committed to riding out whatever market turbulence comes your way, you should just dump your money into your investments in one go.

But obviously, if all you have are small chunks to throw in at intervals, then invest-as-you-go is a fine strategy.
RE: The vast majority of non political economists agree  
chuckydee9 : 8/14/2019 2:52 pm : link
In comment 14530178 Bockman said:
Quote:
That the China trade war is loooong overdue.


I would love to read up on what these economist have to say. I am sure they say that china is abusing the system but I doubt I have heard any economist say that trade war is needed. Please post some names or articles to backup your point.
I'm sure that if we just ask China nicely  
Bill L : 8/14/2019 2:54 pm : link
they will stop cheating.

It seems to be working in Hong Kong.
overall SPY is the best place to blindly put your money till you  
chuckydee9 : 8/14/2019 2:56 pm : link
figure out something better.
RE: I'm sure that if we just ask China nicely  
chuckydee9 : 8/14/2019 3:01 pm : link
In comment 14530327 Bill L said:
Quote:
they will stop cheating.

It seems to be working in Hong Kong.


May be we should forget about trade war and just nuke them.. That will sure stop them from cheating the system..

Trade war has far more consequences then you think. China's cheating could've been dealt with other means rather than trade war...
Invest in an Eli Manning jersey while they are still available  
Marty in Albany : 8/14/2019 3:51 pm : link
.
RE: RE: The vast majority of non political economists agree  
section125 : 8/14/2019 3:58 pm : link
In comment 14530204 Heisenberg said:
Quote:
In comment 14530178 Bockman said:


Quote:


That the China trade war is loooong overdue.



Ok, fine. Let's take the politics and wisdom of the trade war out of it. Can we get bipartisan agreement that in the short term the market doesn't like it?


China has been cheating and stealing for years. As far as I'm concerned, just cut them off completely. We do not need them. They absolutely need us.
Don't have any idea the correct way to bury them, but they need a bitch slap.
RE: RE: RE: The vast majority of non political economists agree  
M.S. : 8/14/2019 4:47 pm : link
In comment 14530390 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 14530204 Heisenberg said:


Quote:


In comment 14530178 Bockman said:


Quote:


That the China trade war is loooong overdue.



Ok, fine. Let's take the politics and wisdom of the trade war out of it. Can we get bipartisan agreement that in the short term the market doesn't like it?



China has been cheating and stealing for years. As far as I'm concerned, just cut them off completely. We do not need them. They absolutely need us.
Don't have any idea the correct way to bury them, but they need a bitch slap.

section125... "Just cut them off completely???" Perhaps on mature reflection, you may want to reconsider such a statement. Our two economies are so integrated there is no such thing as just cutting them off. That would be akin to cutting off one's nose to spite one's face. IMO, the best way to get China to behave better is to create economic alliances with our most reliable allies. And negotiate with China by strength in numbers!
depends what you want  
huygens20 : 8/14/2019 5:21 pm : link
If you want to screw around, go pick stocks.

if you're looking to supplement your retirement account,
buy an ETF/index

if you're looking to start a retirement account,
buy an etf/index
RE: RE: RE: RE: The vast majority of non political economists agree  
huygens20 : 8/14/2019 5:22 pm : link
In comment 14530458 M.S. said:
Quote:
In comment 14530390 section125 said:


Quote:


In comment 14530204 Heisenberg said:


Quote:


In comment 14530178 Bockman said:


Quote:


That the China trade war is loooong overdue.



Ok, fine. Let's take the politics and wisdom of the trade war out of it. Can we get bipartisan agreement that in the short term the market doesn't like it?



China has been cheating and stealing for years. As far as I'm concerned, just cut them off completely. We do not need them. They absolutely need us.
Don't have any idea the correct way to bury them, but they need a bitch slap.


section125... "Just cut them off completely???" Perhaps on mature reflection, you may want to reconsider such a statement. Our two economies are so integrated there is no such thing as just cutting them off. That would be akin to cutting off one's nose to spite one's face. IMO, the best way to get China to behave better is to create economic alliances with our most reliable allies. And negotiate with China by strength in numbers!



Do not tell him that Trump's tariffs have actually widened the trade imbalance between China and USA.


"They need us so bad"
RE: depends what you want  
DC Gmen Fan : 8/14/2019 6:09 pm : link
In comment 14530490 huygens20 said:
Quote:
If you want to screw around, go pick stocks.

if you're looking to supplement your retirement account,
buy an ETF/index

if you're looking to start a retirement account,
buy an etf/index



Ideally something I can grow for a 5-10 year horizon to help buy a bigger house or take a vacation etc
RE: RE: depends what you want  
huygens20 : 8/14/2019 6:27 pm : link
In comment 14530533 DC Gmen Fan said:
Quote:
In comment 14530490 huygens20 said:


Quote:


If you want to screw around, go pick stocks.

if you're looking to supplement your retirement account,
buy an ETF/index

if you're looking to start a retirement account,
buy an etf/index




Ideally something I can grow for a 5-10 year horizon to help buy a bigger house or take a vacation etc


Sounds like this is important money.


I'd go for the lower risk profile and simply buy ETFs. $spx $vti $vt $tlt $voo $qqq

some names you'll want to look at. You're least likely to fuck up bad by going this route.

ALso consider slowly cost averaging in. If your time horizon is 10 years you can take quite a few months to become fully invested in that account.
RE: RE: depends what you want  
Jim in Fairfax : 8/14/2019 6:28 pm : link
In comment 14530533 DC Gmen Fan said:
Quote:

Ideally something I can grow for a 5-10 year horizon to help buy a bigger house or take a vacation etc

The answer is still the same: index funds or ETFs. Without some expert information about particular stocks or industries, anything else is just throwing darts.

Bear in mind that if there a major downturn it could take years just to return to break even. Only invest funds that you won’t need for some time.
if you have a rough timeline in mind  
giants#1 : 8/14/2019 7:07 pm : link
a target date fund such as Vanguard's 2030 (VTHRX) fund may make sense. Its a mix of stocks and bonds with the ratio determined by how long the timeline is. Longer timetable = more aggressive.
well  
giantfan2000 : 8/14/2019 8:14 pm : link
if you really want
you can just download Robin Hood App
and buy SPY
there would be no broker or fees involved

The old "Yield Curve Inversion" .....  
short lease : 8/14/2019 10:47 pm : link
It will eff you every time.
RE: I think Warren Buffett  
short lease : 8/14/2019 10:55 pm : link
In comment 14530065 OnTap said:
Quote:
said something to the effect of if there was only one investment he would recommend it would be the S&P 500.

Broad exposure, plus a dividend you can reinvest


How boring! What does that old bat know .....? He should stick to singing "Marghoritaville" to his parrotheads.
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