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Monday 8/19 - Fantasy Football Thread

pjcas18 : 8/19/2019 8:35 am
Just open for general discussion, but I'd love opinions on my upcoming keeper draft top 2 targets:

PPR. 6 pts per passing TD, 2 keepers. Keepers are Thomas (3rd) and Chubb (10th).

I pick 7th out of 12 and have 7th and 11th picks (due to keepers in 1st and 2nd rounds).

top 20 players remaining just based on rankings:

1. DJ
2. D. Adams
3. Zeke
4. OBJ
5. Tyreek Hill
6. Mixon
7. Cook
8. JuJu
9. D. Williams
10. AB
11. Gordon
12. TY
13. Fournette
14. D. Henry
15. K . Allen
16. Kerryon
17. Freeman
18. Cooper
19. Thielen
20. Josh Jacobs

who would you look or what would your strategy be for # 7/11?

If people stay away from Zeke I'm taking him. I think he'll drop a little but not to #7.

I want to get Juju and Henry (who I love this year), but if I have a shot at Mixon or Cook can I pass them up for Juju?

Ideally I come out of the first 2 draft rounds with something like this for a core 4:

M. Thomas
JuJu/AB (weary of him this year with his antics)/TY
Chubb
Henry/Mixon/Cook


What would you hope for in this scenario?
Assuming you start 2 Rb and 2 wr  
superspynyg : 8/19/2019 8:43 am : link
Cook at 7 or if he is gone Juju
Then Thielen at 11 (unless you get Juju at 7) then I would take Fournette or Williams
I watched last nights Vikds gMe and Thielen is in fire  
superspynyg : 8/19/2019 8:44 am : link
Back in mid season form. Cousins looked great as well.
I'm not buying stock in Cook.  
robbieballs2003 : 8/19/2019 8:54 am : link
He is being overdrafted imo. Take Cook and DJ out of your list. I dont trust them.
RE: I'm not buying stock in Cook.  
pjcas18 : 8/19/2019 9:02 am : link
In comment 14535554 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
He is being overdrafted imo. Take Cook and DJ out of your list. I dont trust them.


So who would you look to get at 7 and 11 that could reasonably be there with that list of ranked players?

If Zeke drops do you take him?
7 is tough because I like 6 guys there.  
robbieballs2003 : 8/19/2019 9:11 am : link
Yes, if Zeke is there I think I take him. He is worth the risk at that piont. And DJ is almost definitely going before your pick so at worst you get JuJu. I think I would list the top 6 as:

Hill
Adams
Zeke
Beckham
Mixon
Juju
(DJ will go before your pick)

At your next pick, Thielen stands out. I also don't trust that Damien Williams will hold onto that job all year. Because of that I am staying away unless it is a value pick and with guys like Thielen around that is not a value pick.

I know you want a RB and Mixon/Zeke is your best bet early but I might hold off until your next pick and target a guy like Aaron Jones, Jacobs, Montgomery, Carson, etc.
Basically, I am saying don't force a RB pick  
robbieballs2003 : 8/19/2019 9:14 am : link
but then I just remembered you don't have a 3rd round pick. Can you trade the pick? That might be an interesting option. Can you trade 7 for lets say someone's 2nd and 3rd? What other RBs are available that aren't kept?
RE: 7 is tough because I like 6 guys there.  
pjcas18 : 8/19/2019 9:19 am : link
In comment 14535565 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
Yes, if Zeke is there I think I take him. He is worth the risk at that piont. And DJ is almost definitely going before your pick so at worst you get JuJu. I think I would list the top 6 as:

Hill
Adams
Zeke
Beckham
Mixon
Juju
(DJ will go before your pick)

At your next pick, Thielen stands out. I also don't trust that Damien Williams will hold onto that job all year. Because of that I am staying away unless it is a value pick and with guys like Thielen around that is not a value pick.

I know you want a RB and Mixon/Zeke is your best bet early but I might hold off until your next pick and target a guy like Aaron Jones, Jacobs, Montgomery, Carson, etc.


My next pick is in the 4th (#29) because I used a 3rd for a keeper.

Around there I could probably get Jacobs, Ingram, maybe Carson, Sony Michel (heavy Pats fan league so he'll prob be overdrafted and I usually avoid NE RB's).

And i don't want a RB per se, just looking for the best 4 players to build a core around, if it's 3 WR's and 1 RB that's fine too.
RE: Basically, I am saying don't force a RB pick  
pjcas18 : 8/19/2019 9:21 am : link
In comment 14535567 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
but then I just remembered you don't have a 3rd round pick. Can you trade the pick? That might be an interesting option. Can you trade 7 for lets say someone's 2nd and 3rd? What other RBs are available that aren't kept?

A lot of RB's kept - the list of keeper RB's is:
Barkley
McCaffrey
Bell
Gurley
Kamara
James White (don't ask)
Aaron Jones
Chubb
Mack
Conner
Guice
So, I would stick to that list.  
robbieballs2003 : 8/19/2019 9:22 am : link
I cannot see how Adams, DJ, Hill, and Beckham don't get drafted before you. After that it is basically Zeke, Mixon, and Juju at that spot and most likely Thielen at 11. That would be what I would do. If one of those receivers drops then you have a decision to make.
I would also add Montgomery to your list in the 4th round.  
robbieballs2003 : 8/19/2019 9:23 am : link
.
Oh, and Tevin Coleman should be on that list too.  
robbieballs2003 : 8/19/2019 9:26 am : link
4th round RB targets:

Jacobs
Carson
Ingram
Montgomery
Coleman

Hopefully one of them are available at that point
RE: I would also add Montgomery to your list in the 4th round.  
pjcas18 : 8/19/2019 9:33 am : link
In comment 14535577 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
.


Is Montgomery expected to be the bell cow to Cohen's change of pace?

Seems like they love Cohen, I didn't own Howard last year and was grateful. Felt like Cohen got too many touches/targets even the red zone (at least it seemed that way).

I've got pick #7 in a snake draft...  
bradshaw44 : 8/19/2019 9:36 am : link
Who can I expect to be there? It's a standard PPR league. Nothing fancy. I haven't been following the league very closely as in past years now that I have a one year old. Any help is much appreciated. Looking for suggestions for my first and second picks. I can figure the rest out after that.

Is Mahome's in play at #7?
RE: RE: I would also add Montgomery to your list in the 4th round.  
robbieballs2003 : 8/19/2019 9:38 am : link
In comment 14535583 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14535577 robbieballs2003 said:


Quote:


.



Is Montgomery expected to be the bell cow to Cohen's change of pace?

Seems like they love Cohen, I didn't own Howard last year and was grateful. Felt like Cohen got too many touches/targets even the red zone (at least it seemed that way).


I am pretty sure they want to lessen Cohen's role and they have loved what they have seen from Montgomery in the passing game. I really don't see it as a split as I think they want Cohen as more of a WR and Montgomery as more of a do-it-all back.
RE: I've got pick #7 in a snake draft...  
robbieballs2003 : 8/19/2019 9:41 am : link
In comment 14535587 bradshaw44 said:
Quote:
Who can I expect to be there? It's a standard PPR league. Nothing fancy. I haven't been following the league very closely as in past years now that I have a one year old. Any help is much appreciated. Looking for suggestions for my first and second picks. I can figure the rest out after that.

Is Mahome's in play at #7?


Hopkins, Conner, Mahomes (I wouldn't), Hill, Bell, Julio, Adams, JuJu, DJ, Thomas.

It is kind of a bad spot to be. If I don't have a top 3 or 4 pick I want a late first pick like 11 or 12.
Thanks, Robbie...  
bradshaw44 : 8/19/2019 9:48 am : link
I really hate the slot this season. I usually prefer the last pick or second to last pick. I feel like doubling up on top talent is better then getting one guy at the top and waiting til pick 25 to get my second shot. I absolutely hate the mid pick.
I don't mind pick  
pjcas18 : 8/19/2019 10:29 am : link
7 in my keeper league. It's actually #10, but with players being kept it's 7 and I kind of like it.

A lot of good options IMO at 7 and 11.

Normally I would agree though. Though I dislike being at the top of the draft more. I think the pressure you have for your top pick to be all-world is more than any other draft spot because the distance between you at 1 or 2 and 23 and 24 is worse than 7 and 16 for example.

I prefer the end of the draft like others, but the middle rounds are better than the beginning IMO.
RE: I don't mind pick  
robbieballs2003 : 8/19/2019 10:45 am : link
In comment 14535644 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
7 in my keeper league. It's actually #10, but with players being kept it's 7 and I kind of like it.

A lot of good options IMO at 7 and 11.

Normally I would agree though. Though I dislike being at the top of the draft more. I think the pressure you have for your top pick to be all-world is more than any other draft spot because the distance between you at 1 or 2 and 23 and 24 is worse than 7 and 16 for example.

I prefer the end of the draft like others, but the middle rounds are better than the beginning IMO.


I think it is a solid 3 or 4 this year. Injuries fuck everything up but there is a track record with these guys and they are young so I like having one of Barkley, CMC, 9r Kamara. I wouldn't mind any of the WRs like Hopkins, Adams, Hill, etc. either. But I think it has more to do with the mock drafts I have done at my second and third picks. Sometimes Thielen is there. Sometimes Gurley. Sometimes AB (scares me but could really be worth it). I'll take that over lets say Adams and Mixon or Hill and Odell. That doesn't even factor in the better third round pick either.
The reason I bring that up is we are choosing our draft slot this year  
robbieballs2003 : 8/19/2019 10:48 am : link
for the first time. I have the third pick. I think the first two will go 1 and 2. I think I am going 3. After that is where it will get fun. If I wanted Zeke I would probably pick 4 but if not I want either 11 or 12.
RE: The reason I bring that up is we are choosing our draft slot this year  
pjcas18 : 8/19/2019 11:02 am : link
In comment 14535695 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
for the first time. I have the third pick. I think the first two will go 1 and 2. I think I am going 3. After that is where it will get fun. If I wanted Zeke I would probably pick 4 but if not I want either 11 or 12.


I prefer 11/12 to 1/2.

Theory is I'd rather have 2 top 13 or 14 players than 3 top 25 or 26.

and when you think like I do about "core 4" players you need to be consistent producers then I prefer 4 top 37/38 than 4 top 47/48.

And I know you can play this game forever, but I look at past draft results and often think "how the hell was that guy drafted there" and it usually starts in the 4th or 5th round - sometimes sooner. Hind sight is 20/20 but I think you can help yourself.

I've never been in a league where we can pick draft slot. I like that.
I mentioned this yesterday but the thread didn't get a lot of juice  
Mike from SI : 8/19/2019 11:10 am : link
so trying again here. I'm high on Devonta Freeman as a bounceback candidate. Am I crazy?
RE: I mentioned this yesterday but the thread didn't get a lot of juice  
pjcas18 : 8/19/2019 11:15 am : link
In comment 14535729 Mike from SI said:
Quote:
so trying again here. I'm high on Devonta Freeman as a bounceback candidate. Am I crazy?


He's a decent RB2, but is that what you mean by bounce back?

he's not on my fully avoid list, but he's not a guy I'm targeting either.
RE: I mentioned this yesterday but the thread didn't get a lot of juice  
kash94 : 8/19/2019 11:26 am : link
In comment 14535729 Mike from SI said:
Quote:
so trying again here. I'm high on Devonta Freeman as a bounceback candidate. Am I crazy?


Conflicted on him as he's missed time each of the last two years, but I think he's a very solid RB2 considering the other options. He plays for a strong offense, Coleman is gone, and ATL added a few O-linemen in the offseason. Their RB depth isn't great either.
RE: RE: I mentioned this yesterday but the thread didn't get a lot of juice  
robbieballs2003 : 8/19/2019 11:27 am : link
In comment 14535751 kash94 said:
Quote:
In comment 14535729 Mike from SI said:


Quote:


so trying again here. I'm high on Devonta Freeman as a bounceback candidate. Am I crazy?



Conflicted on him as he's missed time each of the last two years, but I think he's a very solid RB2 considering the other options. He plays for a strong offense, Coleman is gone, and ATL added a few O-linemen in the offseason. Their RB depth isn't great either.


Ito Smith and Ollison have looked good so far.
The RB's  
pjcas18 : 8/19/2019 11:42 am : link
I am high on as RB2 (generally RB's after RB12 ranking) would be:


Kerryon Johnson (depending your rankings he could be a RB1)
Mack
Henry
Fournette
Jones
Carson
Ingram
Keeper Options  
TyreeHelmet : 8/19/2019 12:48 pm : link
Sony Michel for a 7th round pick or Mayfield for a 9th round pick? Already keeping Damien Williams. League is 6pts for passing TD and 0.5PPR. The rest is standard.
RE: Keeper Options  
robbieballs2003 : 8/19/2019 2:16 pm : link
In comment 14535915 TyreeHelmet said:
Quote:
Sony Michel for a 7th round pick or Mayfield for a 9th round pick? Already keeping Damien Williams. League is 6pts for passing TD and 0.5PPR. The rest is standard.


Michel. You can probably get Mayfield back around then. RB are flying off the board in mocks I am doing
How would you rank  
Mr. Nickels : 8/19/2019 2:42 pm : link
Kerryon
Mack
Henry
Kittle
Mahomes
RE: How would you rank  
robbieballs2003 : 8/19/2019 2:47 pm : link
In comment 14536047 Mr. Nickels said:
Quote:
Kerryon
Mack
Henry
Kittle
Mahomes


This is just me but I find Kerryon, Mack, and Henry to all be ranked way too high. I'd rather take Carson, Fournette, Jacobs, etc. later. However, doing a couple of mock drafts it is always tough to put a nice deep team together taking a QB or TE high. I think need plays into it depending on who you have already and where you are picking.
RE: RE: How would you rank  
Mr. Nickels : 8/19/2019 2:50 pm : link
In comment 14536056 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
In comment 14536047 Mr. Nickels said:


Quote:


Kerryon
Mack
Henry
Kittle
Mahomes



This is just me but I find Kerryon, Mack, and Henry to all be ranked way too high. I'd rather take Carson, Fournette, Jacobs, etc. later. However, doing a couple of mock drafts it is always tough to put a nice deep team together taking a QB or TE high. I think need plays into it depending on who you have already and where you are picking.



I traded up from 10 to 5.

3 keeper league.

Keepin Gurley Adams Julio Jones.

Jacobs is going 1 or 2 as the hot rookie.

Antonio Brown is now being thrown back he should go top 3 as well.

TY Hilton and Cooper are the others leftover
and carson and fournette  
Mr. Nickels : 8/19/2019 2:51 pm : link
are kept.


List the top 10 to 15 players  
robbieballs2003 : 8/19/2019 2:54 pm : link
.
RE: RE: How would you rank  
pjcas18 : 8/19/2019 2:59 pm : link
In comment 14536056 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
In comment 14536047 Mr. Nickels said:


Quote:


Kerryon
Mack
Henry
Kittle
Mahomes



This is just me but I find Kerryon, Mack, and Henry to all be ranked way too high. I'd rather take Carson, Fournette, Jacobs, etc. later. However, doing a couple of mock drafts it is always tough to put a nice deep team together taking a QB or TE high. I think need plays into it depending on who you have already and where you are picking.


Fournette has a higher ADP than Kerryon, but in most of the ADP rankings I see of all the names you mentioned they're really close

Mack 2.12
Fournette 3.03
Henry 3.04
Kerryon 3.06
Jacobs 3.10
Carson 4.05

So this is just one source, but use it as a data point (and if I'm off on ADP tell me - like I said this is one source), but it's not like you can pass on Mack in the 2nd and count on any of these guys "later" except Carson.

I don't disagree with you on TE and QB though.
RE: List the top 10 to 15 players  
Mr. Nickels : 8/19/2019 3:06 pm : link
In comment 14536063 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
.


Antonio Brown
TY Hilton
George Kittle
Amari Cooper
Kerryon Johnson
Marlon Mack
Derrick Henry
Josh Jacobs
Damien Williams
Patrick Mahomes
Julian Edelman
Aaron Jones
Sony Michel
Mark Ingram
David Montgommery
RE: RE: List the top 10 to 15 players  
robbieballs2003 : 8/19/2019 3:42 pm : link
In comment 14536073 Mr. Nickels said:
Quote:
In comment 14536063 robbieballs2003 said:


Quote:


.



Antonio Brown
TY Hilton
George Kittle
Amari Cooper
Kerryon Johnson
Marlon Mack
Derrick Henry
Josh Jacobs
Damien Williams
Patrick Mahomes
Julian Edelman
Aaron Jones
Sony Michel
Mark Ingram
David Montgommery


Hmm. I might have just stayed at 10. lol. Lets see. I may rank them like this but that may change:

AB
Hilton
Kittle
Jacobs
Mahomes
Edelman
Montgomery
Jones
Ingram

This is just me personally as I don't trust certain guys. I don't even think this is a BPA list. It is just a group. I am not buying Cooper, especially with potential plantar fasciitis. Not crazy about Kerryon with his shoulder issue and the team he is on. I know they want to run but I just don't like many Lions outside of Golladay. Henry is interesting but I feel so much depends on Mariota staying healthy and they lost an OL for suspension, correct? Does Henry lose value in a PPR? I feel like Indy is like Philly with their RB and Luck was chucking the ball all over the field last year. They aren't a big running team. I understand Mack had a nice stretch last year but still not buying it. Damien Williams is very intriguing but I have my sleeper on that team and it is Darwin Thompson. He reminds me in stature to Brian Westbrook when Reid was with the Eagles. I don't see Williams lasting the whole year as the starting RB.

I like everybody else. Ingram is in a run first offense and, by all accounts, Jackson has improved his throwing so that helps the whole offense even if they rotate some backs in. Jones is scary. Always injured but man is he primed for a big role. I have a guy like him on this list because he is going later than guys like Henry, Damien Williams, and Mack. Montgomery has proven he can handle a big workload. I think I am higher on him than most especially in the passing game. I don't expect him to have 70 catches but I don't think 40-50 is out of the question.

The hard part is how you rank them. Mahomes in a 6 pt per TD league is huge but I hate the way my teams look after I am done drafting. Same with Kittle. Kittle is a beast but I feel that my team is lacking in other areas when I go TE early.
RE: RE: List the top 10 to 15 players  
robbieballs2003 : 8/19/2019 3:43 pm : link
In comment 14536073 Mr. Nickels said:
Quote:
In comment 14536063 robbieballs2003 said:


Quote:


.



Antonio Brown
TY Hilton
George Kittle
Amari Cooper
Kerryon Johnson
Marlon Mack
Derrick Henry
Josh Jacobs
Damien Williams
Patrick Mahomes
Julian Edelman
Aaron Jones
Sony Michel
Mark Ingram
David Montgommery


Hmm. I might have just stayed at 10. lol. Lets see. I may rank them like this but that may change:

AB
Hilton
Kittle
Jacobs
Mahomes
Edelman
Montgomery
Jones
Ingram

This is just me personally as I don't trust certain guys. I don't even think this is a BPA list. It is just a group. I am not buying Cooper, especially with potential plantar fasciitis. Not crazy about Kerryon with his shoulder issue and the team he is on. I know they want to run but I just don't like many Lions outside of Golladay. Henry is interesting but I feel so much depends on Mariota staying healthy and they lost an OL for suspension, correct? Does Henry lose value in a PPR? I feel like Indy is like Philly with their RB and Luck was chucking the ball all over the field last year. They aren't a big running team. I understand Mack had a nice stretch last year but still not buying it. Damien Williams is very intriguing but I have my sleeper on that team and it is Darwin Thompson. He reminds me in stature to Brian Westbrook when Reid was with the Eagles. I don't see Williams lasting the whole year as the starting RB.

I like everybody else. Ingram is in a run first offense and, by all accounts, Jackson has improved his throwing so that helps the whole offense even if they rotate some backs in. Jones is scary. Always injured but man is he primed for a big role. I have a guy like him on this list because he is going later than guys like Henry, Damien Williams, and Mack. Montgomery has proven he can handle a big workload. I think I am higher on him than most especially in the passing game. I don't expect him to have 70 catches but I don't think 40-50 is out of the question.

The hard part is how you rank them. Mahomes in a 6 pt per TD league is huge but I hate the way my teams look after I am done drafting. Same with Kittle. Kittle is a beast but I feel that my team is lacking in other areas when I go TE early.
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