Here's where we're at
*38 games left to play
*2.0 Games behind the 2nd WC at the moment
*26/38 games at home
*We're close to getting reinforcements (Nimmo, Lowrie, Smith, McNeil, Gsellman) all should be ready for the stretch run.
*We do play a majority of +.500 teams, but I have to say, teams like the Phils, D'Backs, Cubs don't scare me AT ALL, especially when we're at full health.
*This week against the braves/indians with our lineup weakened will be critical, our starting pitching really needs to give us a lift right now
*We have 12 games against high end teams (Braves 6 games, Dodgers 3 games, Indians 3 games) Not sure what to make of Indians as they play awful awful teams in the AL and besides Bieber, the starters we're facing are nothing to write home about.
*September Lineup has to be
McNeil 3B
Rosario SS
Conforto .RF
Alonso 1B
Ramos C
Davis LF
Nimmo CF
Lowrie 2B
Bench
Smith, Frazier, Panik, Nido, Lagares
We need the Altherrs and Tejadas of the world out of this lineup asap.
Lagares has done much better than any of us could have imagined since McNeil went down.
Lowrie, on the other hand, is a lost cause. He should return his paycheck, he's been hurt since the 1st day of Spring Training. I'm not counting on Lowrie for anything.
I can't believe Calloway left Davis out there after his base hit. Davis wasn't going to play the outfield, get a pinch runner in there. Is anybody keeping track of Calloway's bone-head moves ?? This guy has cost the team several games, just in the past 2 months. I'd love to see what this bunch could do with a Girardi or Maddon making the decisions.
4 of those games however are being started by JDG + Thor and obviously we've got some decent guys throwing the other 5 (2x Stroman, 2x Matz, 1x Wheeler). Also notably we're not facing Soroka or Quintana.
Need to win at least 4 games, but 5 or 6 could be realistic if they get off to a good start against Cleveland (who is only 5-5 in their last 10). That will put them in great shape as they start getting guys healthy and get into an easier part of the schedule against the teams they are competing with for the WC. Especially that 6 game road trip following these 9 games.
Lagares and Panik have been stabilizing forces defensively even as Alonso has had a bad streak in the field, I hope they keep riding those 2 for at least the first series vs. Cleveland. In the BP I hope Callaway keeps things simple. Lugo + Familia in the 8th/9th. Wilson + Brach 6th/7th/8th. Avilan only against lefties. Diaz only when they are behind for now. And none of those guys should pitch in any games that turn into laughers (4 run leads either way).
Rosario is on absolute fire right now and to me that lessens the need to rush Nimmo - simply because one of Nimmo's best traits is his OBP out of the leadoff spot, and Rosario hitting everything he sees offsets the early season hole.
I prefer to NOT see the Rosario in LF experiment again, not because he would struggle there necessarily, but it's clearly not his position and in a stretch run where you're struggling to contend you need every advantage and a player learning a new position in that circumstance is not ideal.
Rosario is on absolute fire right now and to me that lessens the need to rush Nimmo - simply because one of Nimmo's best traits is his OBP out of the leadoff spot, and Rosario hitting everything he sees offsets the early season hole.
I prefer to NOT see the Rosario in LF experiment again, not because he would struggle there necessarily, but it's clearly not his position and in a stretch run where you're struggling to contend you need every advantage and a player learning a new position in that circumstance is not ideal.
Davis was quoted in NYPost article this morning saying he expects to be in lineup Tuesday night.
Quote:
should be the first reinforcement back and he's the most important IMO. I believe McNeil is eligible to come back Saturday or Sunday.
Rosario is on absolute fire right now and to me that lessens the need to rush Nimmo - simply because one of Nimmo's best traits is his OBP out of the leadoff spot, and Rosario hitting everything he sees offsets the early season hole.
I prefer to NOT see the Rosario in LF experiment again, not because he would struggle there necessarily, but it's clearly not his position and in a stretch run where you're struggling to contend you need every advantage and a player learning a new position in that circumstance is not ideal.
Davis was quoted in NYPost article this morning saying he expects to be in lineup Tuesday night.
Yes, of course, I meant Rosario in general down the stretch, not just due to Davis calf injury.
I don't think the intent was for Davis to play the field yesterday after PH-ing. but my comment was more in general.
McNeil 2B
Rosario SS
Conforto RF
Alonso 1B
JD LF
Ramos C
Frazier 3B
Nimmo CF
Makes a huge difference because once you get in the postseason, your #5 and probably your #4 starters get added to the pen, which will change the entire complexion.
The Rockies, Reds and Marlins all stink or are eminently sweepable imo and that comprises the last ten games before the aforementioned Braves series to warp it up.
That makes the next 22 games against teams in or vying for playoff position the critical stretch for staying close and in touch with the race. If we can be within 3 or 4 games heading into the last 16 we can get this thing done.
In fact, from Sept 17-26 they embark on an 11 game road trip @ Atlanta, @ Cleveland, and @ Washington (5 game series including rain makeup).
This week is going to be tough. The lineup is decimated, we have no bench, and are facing good teams. Usually I'm not on board with calling mediocre play "a win" but I'll I'd sign up for 3-3 this week.
Adding McNeil and Nimmo back (not to mention maybe even Lowrie) will really give us a deep lineup and round out our bench.
I'm still optimistic on Diaz to at least be a useful pen piece rest of the season, even if not the guy we traded for. He's striking out almost 15 per 9 and his xfip is 2 full runs lower than his ERA. The stuff is still nasty. Let's hope for some positive regression from him down the stretch.
Mets relievers in the 2nd half (6 weeks or so is a decent sample size, roughly a 1/4 season):
Lugo 14g, 16 ip, 3.38 ERA, 3 saves
Wilson 17g, 14 ip, 1.29 ERA
Avilan 15g, 11 ip, 0 ERA (a little deceiving because he's allowed inherited runners to score)
Familia 15g, 12 ip, 3.0 ERA
Combined those 4 have only allowed 3 homers (1 each from Lugo, Familia, Wilson). Aka the same number allowed by Sean Doolittle in his blown save just a couple days ago. Look around baseball and that's pretty close to as good as it gets in bullpens these days.
The main struggle over that period of time was Diaz giving up 4 homers and Gsellman giving up 3, and both doing so in mostly close games. Having those 2 guys contribute would certainly be a big boost, but if Familia and Lugo can pitch to their form over the next 5-6 weeks that could be enough. Especially if Familia goes back to being a lock down closer.
I agree - to me Wilson and Avilan (and Brach) are never going to be reliable in a big spot. You are always on borrowed time with them. Need to manage them against bottom of the order and lower leverage spots (6th/7th innings).
Familia and Lugo are the 2 guys we need to rise up to get big outs if Diaz is a truly lost cause for this year (which is what he needs to be treated as until further notice).
The Cardinals cakewalk schedule has allowed them to take over the division. WSH and CHC lead the WC by 3.5 and 2 games, respectively. I don't see WSH falling out of the race. They are too good. That leaves CHC, MIL, PHI and NYM (outside chance of SFG and ARI not far behind). That's a lot of teams. It's hard to see how the Mets actually get into the dance. No, I don't expect the Dodgers to roll over when we play them. That's utterly riduculous
Which is a shame because this team is a wildcard caliber team, AT MINIMUM. Mickey really screwed this team. And, yes, this is why games in April and May still count. Even though it's colder.
@MBrownstein89
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5m
Final line on Matthew Allan for GCL today:
2.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO
Worked out of a first & second and one out jam in the second.
In 6.1 innings, Allan has struck out 8 batters. #Mets #LGM
The Cardinals cakewalk schedule has allowed them to take over the division. WSH and CHC lead the WC by 3.5 and 2 games, respectively. I don't see WSH falling out of the race. They are too good. That leaves CHC, MIL, PHI and NYM (outside chance of SFG and ARI not far behind). That's a lot of teams. It's hard to see how the Mets actually get into the dance. No, I don't expect the Dodgers to roll over when we play them. That's utterly riduculous
Which is a shame because this team is a wildcard caliber team, AT MINIMUM. Mickey really screwed this team. And, yes, this is why games in April and May still count. Even though it's colder.
If 90 wins misses the WC you tip your cap, say thank you for an entertaining July-September, celebrate by firing Mickey, and get ready for next year.
If the Wilpons want to pop some champagne and celebrate their extra revenue down the stretch I won't even begrudge them - as long as they fire Mickey.
The Cardinals cakewalk schedule has allowed them to take over the division. WSH and CHC lead the WC by 3.5 and 2 games, respectively. I don't see WSH falling out of the race. They are too good. That leaves CHC, MIL, PHI and NYM (outside chance of SFG and ARI not far behind). That's a lot of teams. It's hard to see how the Mets actually get into the dance. No, I don't expect the Dodgers to roll over when we play them. That's utterly riduculous
Which is a shame because this team is a wildcard caliber team, AT MINIMUM. Mickey really screwed this team. And, yes, this is why games in April and May still count. Even though it's colder.
90 wins would definitely get the Mets in the playoffs. While I could see Washington winning 90 games, 2 of Milwaukee, Philly and the Cubs will NOT win 90 games. These teams are going to beat up on each other the next month and a half. There's also zero chance the Phillies and Giants win 90 games. I think the Mets need to get to 87 or 88 to get the second Wild Card. They'll go as fart as their starting pitching will take them.
This team can not rely exclusively on Lugo as the closer. And that’s why I’m of the opinion that Diaz is the key. For sure, I don’t have any confidence in Familia. That said, if somehow they got into the playoffs, then adding Stroman and Matz plus travel days would help Lugo. Then they’d be a dangerous team with the starting pitching and hopefully they’d have a bench. I’m rooting big time but I have so little faith in the bullpen, I don’t see it happening. Hope I’m wrong
The Braves claimed Billy Hamilton off of waivers today
The Mets could just bring up Rajai Davis. Both are speedy outfielders that can’t hit.
@Jacob_Resnick
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1h
#Mets fifth-round draft pick Nathan Jones stretched out to a season-high 3.0 IP tonight in Brooklyn. He’s up to 11 K/3 BB and a 1.80 ERA through five starts.
@Jacob_Resnick
·
1h
#Mets fifth-round draft pick Nathan Jones stretched out to a season-high 3.0 IP tonight in Brooklyn. He’s up to 11 K/3 BB and a 1.80 ERA through five starts.
Speaking of rookies, Jace Beck had his 3rd straight scoreless appearance. Over those 3 games thrown 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
He has been made into a full time reliever and his stuff plays up in that role. It is also a small sample size, but HR are also down. Too early to say for sure as there are a lot of one year flukes among relievers, but this role suits him better
Sounds like Gsellman is done for the year.
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
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15m
Source: Robert Gsellman has a partial lat tear. Timetable tbd, but given the timing it's hard to see how he pitches again this season. Mets down a reliever.