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NFT: Mets Chat 8/19

CMicks3110 : 8/19/2019 10:04 am
Here's where we're at

*38 games left to play

*2.0 Games behind the 2nd WC at the moment

*26/38 games at home

*We're close to getting reinforcements (Nimmo, Lowrie, Smith, McNeil, Gsellman) all should be ready for the stretch run.

*We do play a majority of +.500 teams, but I have to say, teams like the Phils, D'Backs, Cubs don't scare me AT ALL, especially when we're at full health.

*This week against the braves/indians with our lineup weakened will be critical, our starting pitching really needs to give us a lift right now

*We have 12 games against high end teams (Braves 6 games, Dodgers 3 games, Indians 3 games) Not sure what to make of Indians as they play awful awful teams in the AL and besides Bieber, the starters we're facing are nothing to write home about.

*September Lineup has to be
McNeil 3B
Rosario SS
Conforto .RF
Alonso 1B
Ramos C
Davis LF
Nimmo CF
Lowrie 2B

Bench
Smith, Frazier, Panik, Nido, Lagares
Take some relief knowing  
Jay on the Island : 8/19/2019 10:09 am : link
That the Braves lineup has been hit with injuries as well. They will still be without Swanson, Riley, Markakis, and Inciarte.
what they  
Ron Johnson : 8/19/2019 10:13 am : link
need is 6 weeks of the 2018 Diaz
We need this injury bug to calm down  
Chris684 : 8/19/2019 10:22 am : link
Hopefully JD tomorrow, McNeil by the weekend and Nimmo shortly thereafter.

We need the Altherrs and Tejadas of the world out of this lineup asap.

Lagares has done much better than any of us could have imagined since McNeil went down.
..  
Named Later : 8/19/2019 10:24 am : link
I was encouraged by the fact that Nimmo played CF for 5 innings on Sunday. I frankly was not expecting a player with a bulging disc in his neck to get back on the field this year.

Lowrie, on the other hand, is a lost cause. He should return his paycheck, he's been hurt since the 1st day of Spring Training. I'm not counting on Lowrie for anything.

I can't believe Calloway left Davis out there after his base hit. Davis wasn't going to play the outfield, get a pinch runner in there. Is anybody keeping track of Calloway's bone-head moves ?? This guy has cost the team several games, just in the past 2 months. I'd love to see what this bunch could do with a Girardi or Maddon making the decisions.
this next 9 game chunk is big (likely mostly pre-reinforcements)  
Eric on Li : 8/19/2019 10:28 am : link
Cleveland, Atlanta, and Chicago are combined 50+ games over .500.

4 of those games however are being started by JDG + Thor and obviously we've got some decent guys throwing the other 5 (2x Stroman, 2x Matz, 1x Wheeler). Also notably we're not facing Soroka or Quintana.

Need to win at least 4 games, but 5 or 6 could be realistic if they get off to a good start against Cleveland (who is only 5-5 in their last 10). That will put them in great shape as they start getting guys healthy and get into an easier part of the schedule against the teams they are competing with for the WC. Especially that 6 game road trip following these 9 games.

Lagares and Panik have been stabilizing forces defensively even as Alonso has had a bad streak in the field, I hope they keep riding those 2 for at least the first series vs. Cleveland. In the BP I hope Callaway keeps things simple. Lugo + Familia in the 8th/9th. Wilson + Brach 6th/7th/8th. Avilan only against lefties. Diaz only when they are behind for now. And none of those guys should pitch in any games that turn into laughers (4 run leads either way).
McNeil  
pjcas18 : 8/19/2019 10:34 am : link
should be the first reinforcement back and he's the most important IMO. I believe McNeil is eligible to come back Saturday or Sunday.

Rosario is on absolute fire right now and to me that lessens the need to rush Nimmo - simply because one of Nimmo's best traits is his OBP out of the leadoff spot, and Rosario hitting everything he sees offsets the early season hole.

I prefer to NOT see the Rosario in LF experiment again, not because he would struggle there necessarily, but it's clearly not his position and in a stretch run where you're struggling to contend you need every advantage and a player learning a new position in that circumstance is not ideal.
RE: McNeil  
Chris684 : 8/19/2019 10:38 am : link
In comment 14535656 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
should be the first reinforcement back and he's the most important IMO. I believe McNeil is eligible to come back Saturday or Sunday.

Rosario is on absolute fire right now and to me that lessens the need to rush Nimmo - simply because one of Nimmo's best traits is his OBP out of the leadoff spot, and Rosario hitting everything he sees offsets the early season hole.

I prefer to NOT see the Rosario in LF experiment again, not because he would struggle there necessarily, but it's clearly not his position and in a stretch run where you're struggling to contend you need every advantage and a player learning a new position in that circumstance is not ideal.


Davis was quoted in NYPost article this morning saying he expects to be in lineup Tuesday night.
RE: RE: McNeil  
pjcas18 : 8/19/2019 10:41 am : link
In comment 14535665 Chris684 said:
Quote:
In comment 14535656 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


should be the first reinforcement back and he's the most important IMO. I believe McNeil is eligible to come back Saturday or Sunday.

Rosario is on absolute fire right now and to me that lessens the need to rush Nimmo - simply because one of Nimmo's best traits is his OBP out of the leadoff spot, and Rosario hitting everything he sees offsets the early season hole.

I prefer to NOT see the Rosario in LF experiment again, not because he would struggle there necessarily, but it's clearly not his position and in a stretch run where you're struggling to contend you need every advantage and a player learning a new position in that circumstance is not ideal.



Davis was quoted in NYPost article this morning saying he expects to be in lineup Tuesday night.


Yes, of course, I meant Rosario in general down the stretch, not just due to Davis calf injury.

I don't think the intent was for Davis to play the field yesterday after PH-ing. but my comment was more in general.
Has there been an update on Dom?  
Chris684 : 8/19/2019 10:43 am : link
Would be nice if we start September with a Lagares, Dom, Panik bench.

McNeil 2B
Rosario SS
Conforto RF
Alonso 1B
JD LF
Ramos C
Frazier 3B
Nimmo CF
Bullpen Help  
Samiam : 8/19/2019 10:46 am : link
If there’s nothing in the minors, and I doubt there is, and Diaz doesn’t turn it around very soon, what difference does it make?
RE: Bullpen Help  
ZGiants98 : 8/19/2019 12:08 pm : link
In comment 14535689 Samiam said:
Quote:
If there’s nothing in the minors, and I doubt there is, and Diaz doesn’t turn it around very soon, what difference does it make?


Makes a huge difference because once you get in the postseason, your #5 and probably your #4 starters get added to the pen, which will change the entire complexion.
Musings about the schedule  
Torrag : 8/19/2019 12:20 pm : link
The Dodgers could/should clinched and going easy on anyone with so much as a hangnail when that series rolls around. The Braves as well will have the division sown up by the final series as well imo and sorely in need of some rest for key guys.

The Rockies, Reds and Marlins all stink or are eminently sweepable imo and that comprises the last ten games before the aforementioned Braves series to warp it up.

That makes the next 22 games against teams in or vying for playoff position the critical stretch for staying close and in touch with the race. If we can be within 3 or 4 games heading into the last 16 we can get this thing done.
Our schedule is not that bad...  
Chris684 : 8/19/2019 12:24 pm : link
Philly (for example) has to play 4 with Boston, 7 with Atlanta, 3 with Cleveland and a 5 game set @ Washington.

In fact, from Sept 17-26 they embark on an 11 game road trip @ Atlanta, @ Cleveland, and @ Washington (5 game series including rain makeup).
Chris  
Torrag : 8/19/2019 12:30 pm : link
The Phillies aren't the team we have to worry about passing.
I wouldn't say we're favored  
Metnut : 8/19/2019 12:30 pm : link
to make the playoffs, but NYM certainly have a legit shot.

This week is going to be tough. The lineup is decimated, we have no bench, and are facing good teams. Usually I'm not on board with calling mediocre play "a win" but I'll I'd sign up for 3-3 this week.

Adding McNeil and Nimmo back (not to mention maybe even Lowrie) will really give us a deep lineup and round out our bench.

I'm still optimistic on Diaz to at least be a useful pen piece rest of the season, even if not the guy we traded for. He's striking out almost 15 per 9 and his xfip is 2 full runs lower than his ERA. The stuff is still nasty. Let's hope for some positive regression from him down the stretch.
Just need to continue to take 2 out of 3 in every series.  
figgy2989 : 8/19/2019 12:36 pm : link
Schedule is brutal as far as who we are playing, but the majority of the games are at home, which has been favorable to most of the Mets staff.
RE: Bullpen Help  
Eric on Li : 8/19/2019 12:51 pm : link
In comment 14535689 Samiam said:
Quote:
If there’s nothing in the minors, and I doubt there is, and Diaz doesn’t turn it around very soon, what difference does it make?


Mets relievers in the 2nd half (6 weeks or so is a decent sample size, roughly a 1/4 season):

Lugo 14g, 16 ip, 3.38 ERA, 3 saves
Wilson 17g, 14 ip, 1.29 ERA
Avilan 15g, 11 ip, 0 ERA (a little deceiving because he's allowed inherited runners to score)
Familia 15g, 12 ip, 3.0 ERA

Combined those 4 have only allowed 3 homers (1 each from Lugo, Familia, Wilson). Aka the same number allowed by Sean Doolittle in his blown save just a couple days ago. Look around baseball and that's pretty close to as good as it gets in bullpens these days.

The main struggle over that period of time was Diaz giving up 4 homers and Gsellman giving up 3, and both doing so in mostly close games. Having those 2 guys contribute would certainly be a big boost, but if Familia and Lugo can pitch to their form over the next 5-6 weeks that could be enough. Especially if Familia goes back to being a lock down closer.
One thing I'll warn about  
Metnut : 8/19/2019 12:57 pm : link
is that Wilson's peripherals don't look great, so he's a bigtime candidate for regression. We should expect Diaz to regress in a positive way for us though, so they'll likely equal out.
& to piggyback my last post that's all despite Callaway's f'd up usage  
Eric on Li : 8/19/2019 12:57 pm : link
Lugo being tossed out there the other night in the 7th after an expedited warm up session instead of Matz being case in point. I know, no excuses, get ready, play like a champion, blah blah blah. But it doesn't take a rocket scientist to think there may be some casual relationship between a reliever walking the first batter for the first time in over a year and being rushed into a game unexpectedly. Had Mickey made the obvious call and let Matz continue cruising and Lugo not gotten blown up, his ERA would be in the 1's and maybe they win that game + series.
RE: One thing I'll warn about  
Eric on Li : 8/19/2019 12:59 pm : link
In comment 14535931 Metnut said:
Quote:
is that Wilson's peripherals don't look great, so he's a bigtime candidate for regression. We should expect Diaz to regress in a positive way for us though, so they'll likely equal out.


I agree - to me Wilson and Avilan (and Brach) are never going to be reliable in a big spot. You are always on borrowed time with them. Need to manage them against bottom of the order and lower leverage spots (6th/7th innings).

Familia and Lugo are the 2 guys we need to rise up to get big outs if Diaz is a truly lost cause for this year (which is what he needs to be treated as until further notice).
We could win 2 of 3 for every remaining series and I still don't think  
PhiPsi125 : 8/19/2019 1:19 pm : link
that would clinch a WC spot for us. Let's say we go 26-12 the rest of the way. That get's us to 90-72. This is best case scenario which IMO aint happening. Not with the toughest remaining schedule.

The Cardinals cakewalk schedule has allowed them to take over the division. WSH and CHC lead the WC by 3.5 and 2 games, respectively. I don't see WSH falling out of the race. They are too good. That leaves CHC, MIL, PHI and NYM (outside chance of SFG and ARI not far behind). That's a lot of teams. It's hard to see how the Mets actually get into the dance. No, I don't expect the Dodgers to roll over when we play them. That's utterly riduculous

Which is a shame because this team is a wildcard caliber team, AT MINIMUM. Mickey really screwed this team. And, yes, this is why games in April and May still count. Even though it's colder.
Problem with the Dodgers is that  
Metnut : 8/19/2019 1:22 pm : link
they can sit 5-6 players with minor injuries when they play us and still be a powerhouse. Their depth is just that insanely good.
Matthew Allan  
pjcas18 : 8/19/2019 1:57 pm : link
getting some work in.

Quote:
Mathew Brownstein
@MBrownstein89
·
5m
Final line on Matthew Allan for GCL today:

2.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO

Worked out of a first & second and one out jam in the second.

In 6.1 innings, Allan has struck out 8 batters. #Mets #LGM
RE: We could win 2 of 3 for every remaining series and I still don't think  
Eric on Li : 8/19/2019 2:09 pm : link
In comment 14535965 PhiPsi125 said:
Quote:
that would clinch a WC spot for us. Let's say we go 26-12 the rest of the way. That get's us to 90-72. This is best case scenario which IMO aint happening. Not with the toughest remaining schedule.

The Cardinals cakewalk schedule has allowed them to take over the division. WSH and CHC lead the WC by 3.5 and 2 games, respectively. I don't see WSH falling out of the race. They are too good. That leaves CHC, MIL, PHI and NYM (outside chance of SFG and ARI not far behind). That's a lot of teams. It's hard to see how the Mets actually get into the dance. No, I don't expect the Dodgers to roll over when we play them. That's utterly riduculous

Which is a shame because this team is a wildcard caliber team, AT MINIMUM. Mickey really screwed this team. And, yes, this is why games in April and May still count. Even though it's colder.


If 90 wins misses the WC you tip your cap, say thank you for an entertaining July-September, celebrate by firing Mickey, and get ready for next year.

If the Wilpons want to pop some champagne and celebrate their extra revenue down the stretch I won't even begrudge them - as long as they fire Mickey.
RE: We could win 2 of 3 for every remaining series and I still don't think  
Meats and Cheeses : 8/19/2019 2:21 pm : link
In comment 14535965 PhiPsi125 said:
Quote:
that would clinch a WC spot for us. Let's say we go 26-12 the rest of the way. That get's us to 90-72. This is best case scenario which IMO aint happening. Not with the toughest remaining schedule.

The Cardinals cakewalk schedule has allowed them to take over the division. WSH and CHC lead the WC by 3.5 and 2 games, respectively. I don't see WSH falling out of the race. They are too good. That leaves CHC, MIL, PHI and NYM (outside chance of SFG and ARI not far behind). That's a lot of teams. It's hard to see how the Mets actually get into the dance. No, I don't expect the Dodgers to roll over when we play them. That's utterly riduculous

Which is a shame because this team is a wildcard caliber team, AT MINIMUM. Mickey really screwed this team. And, yes, this is why games in April and May still count. Even though it's colder.


90 wins would definitely get the Mets in the playoffs. While I could see Washington winning 90 games, 2 of Milwaukee, Philly and the Cubs will NOT win 90 games. These teams are going to beat up on each other the next month and a half. There's also zero chance the Phillies and Giants win 90 games. I think the Mets need to get to 87 or 88 to get the second Wild Card. They'll go as fart as their starting pitching will take them.
Confidence in the Bullpen  
Samiam : 8/19/2019 5:29 pm : link
I don’t know how anybody can have confidence in this bullpen. I will grant you that the bullpen is better now given the 2 left handed option, Wilson and Aviles. Plus, the defense has gotten better. But, especially against good hitting teams, and that pretty much is what the Mets will face for the rest of the year, it seems like no lead is safe.

This team can not rely exclusively on Lugo as the closer. And that’s why I’m of the opinion that Diaz is the key. For sure, I don’t have any confidence in Familia. That said, if somehow they got into the playoffs, then adding Stroman and Matz plus travel days would help Lugo. Then they’d be a dangerous team with the starting pitching and hopefully they’d have a bench. I’m rooting big time but I have so little faith in the bullpen, I don’t see it happening. Hope I’m wrong
RE: Take some relief knowing  
SJGiant : 8/19/2019 6:33 pm : link
In comment 14535611 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
That the Braves lineup has been hit with injuries as well. They will still be without Swanson, Riley, Markakis, and Inciarte.


The Braves claimed Billy Hamilton off of waivers today
Why on earth did the Mets not put  
bhill410 : 8/19/2019 8:30 pm : link
A claim in on him? Finances?
RE: Why on earth did the Mets not put  
Meats and Cheeses : 8/19/2019 8:36 pm : link
In comment 14536290 bhill410 said:
Quote:
A claim in on him? Finances?


The Mets could just bring up Rajai Davis. Both are speedy outfielders that can’t hit.
.  
pjcas18 : 8/19/2019 9:02 pm : link
Jacob Resnick
@Jacob_Resnick
·
1h
#Mets fifth-round draft pick Nathan Jones stretched out to a season-high 3.0 IP tonight in Brooklyn. He’s up to 11 K/3 BB and a 1.80 ERA through five starts.
RE: .  
Mike in NY : 8/19/2019 9:24 pm : link
In comment 14536322 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Jacob Resnick
@Jacob_Resnick
·
1h
#Mets fifth-round draft pick Nathan Jones stretched out to a season-high 3.0 IP tonight in Brooklyn. He’s up to 11 K/3 BB and a 1.80 ERA through five starts.


Speaking of rookies, Jace Beck had his 3rd straight scoreless appearance. Over those 3 games thrown 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
Rafael Montero  
CMicks3110 : 8/20/2019 6:21 am : link
popping up in Texas. Has thrown 13 innings in relief with a 1.38 era and 15/3 K/BB ratio. Fastball up to 96 mph average. Saw him hit 98 a few times. Never thought we should have cut him, much greater upside than Walker Lockett.
RE: Rafael Montero  
Mike in NY : 8/20/2019 7:08 am : link
In comment 14536408 CMicks3110 said:
Quote:
popping up in Texas. Has thrown 13 innings in relief with a 1.38 era and 15/3 K/BB ratio. Fastball up to 96 mph average. Saw him hit 98 a few times. Never thought we should have cut him, much greater upside than Walker Lockett.


He has been made into a full time reliever and his stuff plays up in that role. It is also a small sample size, but HR are also down. Too early to say for sure as there are a lot of one year flukes among relievers, but this role suits him better
Stroman and Matz should be swapped in the rotation  
MetsAreBack : 8/20/2019 12:43 pm : link
We have a day off every week the next 3 weeks, and Matz shouldn’t be going against the Braves this weekend.
Montero never embraced a BP role here and had control issues  
Eric on Li : 8/20/2019 12:51 pm : link
they did try that at one point. He got a lot of chances. If he finds a late career breakout at age 28 all the power to him.
Rajai Davis  
pjcas18 : 8/20/2019 3:19 pm : link
up, Lockett down.

Sounds like Gsellman is done for the year.

Andy Martino
@martinonyc
·
15m
Source: Robert Gsellman has a partial lat tear. Timetable tbd, but given the timing it's hard to see how he pitches again this season. Mets down a reliever.
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