I've seen a number of your posts over the past couple of months and I don't see what enjoyment you are getting out of being a football fan. You seem to want to be miserable.
Is useless if you can't admit your mistakes. I certainly can't say for sure that is what is happening here, but it doesn't seem that unlikely given some of the feedback by posters I trust.
Maybe one day he'll do a video like this for Daniel Jones:
I was wrong - Patrick Mahomes is ridiculously good
I've seen a number of your posts over the past couple of months and I don't see what enjoyment you are getting out of being a football fan. You seem to want to be miserable.
I think there's a certain type of person that thinks being a pessimist is a badge of honor. We have a few of those people here. They call themselves realists. Almost no one is taking this preseason as some undeniable proof that Jones will be some HOFer but instead of enjoying something we maybe have never seen before in preseason, these people find the need to flex their "realist" muscles. I think they think it makes them more mature or something. I don't even know.
He isn't, but unfortunately, someone who has put out great mostly unbiased content before fell in the same trap of rationalizing what now looks like a possibly uninformed opinion. He lost a lot of credibility with this video. He's still good but I no longer view him as an unbiased analyst.
He isn't, but unfortunately, someone who has put out great mostly unbiased content before fell in the same trap of rationalizing what now looks like a possibly uninformed opinion. He lost a lot of credibility with this video. He's still good but I no longer view him as an unbiased analyst.
Well, not only is this video uninformed, it is in reaction to a previous, just as uninformed video. So, I'm not thinking the guy had any credibility to begin with.
I guess if the sole purpose was to say not to read to much into preseason, well it shouldn't have been billed as a comp between 3 rook QBs
But then talking stats IS reading into it. And saying stats are often misinterpreted while citing ONE random meaningless one as what...? The QB playing well isn't playing THAT well (while ignoring the overall league numbers, TB, DB etc for no reason)
While only breaking down ONE drive, the first (meaningless) preseason drive of ONE of the rook QBs? What could that possibly prove?
Reminds me of a HS student writing a lot, but the A having literally nothing to do w/ the Q (see Billy Madison)
He isn't, but unfortunately, someone who has put out great mostly unbiased content before fell in the same trap of rationalizing what now looks like a possibly uninformed opinion. He lost a lot of credibility with this video. He's still good but I no longer view him as an unbiased analyst.
Well, not only is this video uninformed, it is in reaction to a previous, just as uninformed video. So, I'm not thinking the guy had any credibility to begin with.
The problem is the guy seems like a better analyst of plays than stats guy. So he used a stat that is kind of meaningless and he was sloppy. Look at my post of the players with intended passing yards and look at the previous post who wasn't on that list. It debunks this stat. Ironically he spent like 5 minutes telling us how useless stats are and then himself used a useless stat to prove his point. Honestly, you could have as credible a lost if you just put QBs' names into a hat.
That list proves nothing and he just got lucky that two game managers happened to be 16 and 17 because so that he could make the point. It's an abuse of statistics at its finest. Looking at 2 specific data points to prove a point. At the very least he should have looked at 16 or later because if his point held 18 would be an even bigger game manager and so on. But no, it just so happened that the two perfect game managers were at 16 and 17. And you could find 4 of the best QBs below that but because he wasn't looking below 17 and was just looking at two random points it looks like he said something profound Inexcusable abuse of stats.
An example of this would be like saying no QB who threw for exactly 4,000 yards has won a Super Bowl and therefore saying that only QBs with fewer than 4,000 yards can win a Super Bowl.
this isn't complicated. All you need to do is watch the kid play. He's been amazing. Anyone who says otherwise probably has an agenda.
Can he still be a bust? Can he still suck? Sure.
But no one expected him to be THIS good.
In a more "water downed" than ever preseason. Save the judgement for reg season games. Period..its not like years past .
You're right about judgement until he plays in the regular season. But in a more water downed than ever preaseason, then shouldn't everyone be lighting it up? The "better" prospects like Murray and Haskins, the rookie sensation Mayfield, and even veteran qbs should all have performed better than Jones then, right? But, yet, Jones has been better
RE: The list of QBs with best intended yards stats Â
This is the hill he's willing to die on? By my count only 7 of these QBs are even any good, out of the remaining 10, 8 were nothing special or young but didn't have amazing seasons and 2 were guys like Dalton and Smith who are meh. 5 QBs including career backup Fitzpatrick and mediocre Jameis Winston had better stats than Patrick Mahomes. As already mentioned, some of the best QBs in the NFL didn't make this list. This stat is nonsense. You might as well just pick random QB names out of a bag. Honestly, a disappointing video by a guy trying to put out edgy commentary and save face. He's a guy that as I said, I thought was above that. Too bad.
I know right. When I saw the top four, I'm like what is he getting at. Brady's not even there
As Eric said- what do your eyes tell you? They tell me we don’t have Kent Graham, Danny Kannell, Ryan Nassib or any of the other “hopefuls” ( not named Kerry Collins) who have come along over the years. If you’ve been a Giants fan, you know it when you see it. Even as a rookie, Eli “looked” the part, even when he couldn’t hit the broadside of the barn. Now, Jones could still crash and burn, but it doesn’t seem like that will be the case. I hate stats- good for fantasy football!
As Eric said- what do your eyes tell you? They tell me we don’t have Kent Graham, Danny Kannell, Ryan Nassib or any of the other “hopefuls” ( not named Kerry Collins) who have come along over the years. If you’ve been a Giants fan, you know it when you see it. Even as a rookie, Eli “looked” the part, even when he couldn’t hit the broadside of the barn. Now, Jones could still crash and burn, but it doesn’t seem like that will be the case. I hate stats- good for fantasy football!
Yep, this what DG was saying when he was in full bloom love. DJ looks like professional qb.
Brett, I've been a long time fan of yours but this video hurts your credibility big time. You come off as someone desperately trying to rationalize your stance on Jones.
Here are the problems with this video:
1) You say stats don't matter and are a tool for confirmation bias but then use an obscure stat as a tool for confirmation bias.
2) Jones hasn't taken many shots but has been successful. 4-5 on passes for 127 yards for passes of 20 yards or more.
3) Shurmur putting him in a position to succeed is what every good coach does for his QB, especially a young one. Bill Belichick has made a career as GOAT coach by doing this and he's facilitated Tom Brady becoming the GOAT QB.
4) Shurmur and Jones are a packaged deal that will be here beyond the preseason so even if he's making Jones look better than he is that will continue in the regular season.
5) This stat doesn't give the QB credit for hitting players in stride for YAC which is a major part of a modern offense.
6) You made a video last year about how the Saints are a methodical offense that is very efficient with Drew Brees under center.
7) The stat is pretty useless. It's as if you didn't even read your ranker. Two rookies and two mediocre QBs had a better ranking than Mahomes. By my count only 7 of the top 15 are good established QBs, these are the QBs that are supposed to be compared favorably to Jones. You couldn't get a more random list if you just put names into a hat.
8) The variance between these isn't that big either. The difference between 8 and 17 is 0.7 of a yard. So how much does the ranking even mean?
9) QBs not in that list, because they're below Alex Smith, include Tom Brady (7.7), Ben Roethlisberger (7.7), Andrew Luck (7.6), and Drew Brees (7.1).
10) You lucked out that sitting there at 16/17 where Jones would fall were two perfect examples of game managers in Dalton and Smith. If Jones performed WORSE in this stat and had 7.6, you wouldn't even make this video because "this puts him between Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Andrew Luck" doesn't corroborate your point and would make your argument null and void. For that argument to make statistical sense you should have looked at QBs at 16 or lower since presumably the lower you go the more "game manager" those QBs become and this way you wouldn't be looking at two random QBs in a random list that just so happened to be at 16 and 17.
In summary, you're great at analyzing plays. However, you abused statistics something fierce here. Ironically after lecturing others for doing the same. You pretty clearly want to defend a take that right now appears to possibly (keyword here) be uninformed and did a sloppy job of making your case. I don't know 1/1000 of what you know in analyzing film but I know how to call bullshit on stats abuse.
All he did was desperately look for at least one stat against Jones Â
and a Patreon. He is no more an expert than any of us. He never worked in the NFL. He was never a scout paid to be right or wrong about players. He is just a guy making YouTube videos and for some reason some people take him seriously. He has been wrong a lot. Go look at his Christian Hackenberg video where he argued he would be a NFL franchise QB.
Remember all his income comes from people believing he knows something. He already lambasted Daniel Jones. His ability to make money goes down if Jones is a good QB so he must continue to knock him despite all the evidence in front of him. At some point he can't bash him anymore and will do a 180 like with Patrick Mahomes. But honestly, who cares about Brett Kollmann? He is just a fan and not a professional scout or NFL FO guy.
and a Patreon. He is no more an expert than any of us. He never worked in the NFL. He was never a scout paid to be right or wrong about players. He is just a guy making YouTube videos and for some reason some people take him seriously. He has been wrong a lot. Go look at his Christian Hackenberg video where he argued he would be a NFL franchise QB.
Remember all his income comes from people believing he knows something. He already lambasted Daniel Jones. His ability to make money goes down if Jones is a good QB so he must continue to knock him despite all the evidence in front of him. At some point he can't bash him anymore and will do a 180 like with Patrick Mahomes. But honestly, who cares about Brett Kollmann? He is just a fan and not a professional scout or NFL FO guy.
Player evaluation mistakes are one thing but all he had to do was look at his list, the top 4 QBs and QBs that weren't on there to see that this argument is garbage. Extremely sloppy.
That is the job of every QB at every level of football. Good game managers win games and Superbowls. Tom Brady is a game manager. So is Eli. So is Ryan Tannehill. They do it with varying degrees of success.
If the term is being used to say he doesn’t throw the ball in the air far enough, then he is looking for stats, not how the QB executes the offense being called.
You know who was a poor game manager? Jeff George. But I bet this guy loved how he chucked the ball down the field. So that’s nice.
This is why I'm more interested in content than background Â
or title or even experience alone. If Gil Brandt or some other well respected analyst made this vid, I'd personally still say it's pretty poor. This comment isn't about being an NYG or DJ fan, but simply making an argument with supporting facts. More than their opinion, you get the why you can evaluate, refute, learn something new...
This vid states a few hypotheses (stats are misleading, preseason doesn't matter much) then uses a SINGLE PRESEASON STAT to make his point
He also introduces it as a comp between 3 players. Then using that ONE stat again, implies 2 are better (mostly due to air yards I guess?)
He also says to use film. Where's film on KM & DH? And why do we cherry pick the FIRST PRESEASON DRIVE of a rook? That too while ignoring later drives that showed tougher / deep throws. Then says the good throws were his coach and scheme
It's just a poorly constructed, contradictory argument. The only value is a platitude about preseason isn't everything? Even ignorant fans don't need 15 min on these QBs, much less using ONE example as some kind of proof of what's basically a cliche?
That is the job of every QB at every level of football. Good game managers win games and Superbowls. Tom Brady is a game manager. So is Eli. So is Ryan Tannehill. They do it with varying degrees of success.
If the term is being used to say he doesn’t throw the ball in the air far enough, then he is looking for stats, not how the QB executes the offense being called.
You know who was a poor game manager? Jeff George. But I bet this guy loved how he chucked the ball down the field. So that’s nice.
Nice...good post. I said almost the same thing above (w/ Brady & George as 2 examples lol). Tho yours is much more eloquent!
That is the job of every QB at every level of football. Good game managers win games and Superbowls. Tom Brady is a game manager. So is Eli. So is Ryan Tannehill. They do it with varying degrees of success.
If the term is being used to say he doesn’t throw the ball in the air far enough, then he is looking for stats, not how the QB executes the offense being called.
You know who was a poor game manager? Jeff George. But I bet this guy loved how he chucked the ball down the field. So that’s nice.
Nice...good post. I said almost the same thing above (w/ Brady & George as 2 examples lol). Tho yours is much more eloquent!
Joe Montana is another example. Also another example right there with Tom Brady of having an all-time great coach putting him in a position to succeed. If Shurmur does that to Jones how is this a knock on Jones? Was that a knock on Montana and Brady? Maybe a QB like Peyton Manning can succeed with any OC. But Peyton Manning is probably the most unique QB in the NFL in that sense. First ballot HOFer Drew Brees didn't do much until he got Payton.
Anyway, DJones has shown that he definitely has skill and IMO, has already shown why he was drafted at #6. We still haven’t seen him take off with the ball and his mobility will add a dimension that we’ve not seen here in quite some time.
Biggest concern right now with DJones is his ability to feel the rush. He’s even commented about stepping up into the pocket when he feels the pressure. He should learn and get better in the pocket.
Those with agendas want to try to further justify them and their dislike for Jones. I’m not so sure most of them will ever admit they were wrong! Who cares anyway. If DJones gets the Giants to the playoffs and is successful, who cares if he’s a system QB or not. Could you call Tom Brady a system QB? Coaches are supposed to put their players in position to be successful and Shurmur is doing just that. How do you think Keenum and Foles were so successful ?!
Jones got hot in game 1 and has stayed hot. It's really that simple. The guy has been in a zone.
And by and large he's made most of the throws you'd have to make in most games.
Now, the great unknowns we all think about remain:
-- Can he perform similarly against the Varsity Ds?
-- Can he manage real game speed?
-- Can he perform as a similar level for a full game?
-- Can he deal with pressure?
-- Can he make plays off script?
-- Etc.
The best way to start getting these answers is for the DJ to play right away. But it seems we're going old school and will force him to wait...
Inability to go through all of his progressions, as well as being more patient wth his check-down, are all clear indications that the game is still moving rapidly for him. However his arm, accuracy, and near horizontal touch have been nothing less than stellar.
One more year, under the tutelage of Shurmer & Eli, will gag the naysayers, and put to rest this offseason banter. We are looking at an athlete with the ability to lead, and represent this team, for the next decade.
Jones got hot in game 1 and has stayed hot. It's really that simple. The guy has been in a zone.
And by and large he's made most of the throws you'd have to make in most games.
Now, the great unknowns we all think about remain:
-- Can he perform similarly against the Varsity Ds?
-- Can he manage real game speed?
-- Can he perform as a similar level for a full game?
-- Can he deal with pressure?
-- Can he make plays off script?
-- Etc.
The best way to start getting these answers is for the DJ to play right away. But it seems we're going old school and will force him to wait...
I actually with most of those bullet points (save "Etc")
But the idea that he has to play immediately I don't. Sure sitting too long is not good, and he definitely needs live action. But people act like there's no value to watching, when the reality is you learn A LOT that you wouldn't normally while playing. Agreed it's different player to player, and staff / team / culture all play roles, but even tho I wouldn't mind him starting ASAP, DJ is the type who will gain a lot out of even a full yr at #2
It's not some all or nothing moment. And possibly a great thing for a rook esp while adjusting to all the stuff we fans ignore like moving, new city, new everything no matter how nice the paycheck is or being a pro athlete seems...not the worst thing even if he would succeed starting game 1. And that ignoring Eli's side, to which unless he's awful or just much worse than DJ, he's more than deserved to start this season...
I thought that was an excellent segment. Guy definitely knows his shit and had the right overall message, dont overreact in either direction.
One note specific to the Jones criticism on the TD vs the jets, he didn't make the same mistake vs the bears, he threw it with more loft and distance.
If this guy is right that his QB coach would've criticized him on Monday morning, he took that criticism and fixed it the next week.
He probably made solid arguments with regards to the game tape but he completely abused the stat that he used. He used a stat that seems to not correlate with much and got lucky that Jones ended up falling between two game managers that helped corroborate the point. Once again if Jones did WORSE in this stat and ended up at 7.6 and not 8.2, his argument would be shot to pieces. Then he'd have to criticize him buy saying he's between Brady, Big Ben, and Andrew Luck. Still better than that scrub Brees though.
*I'm taking the stats presented at face value, but I wouldn't be surprised since the 4 QBs mentioned there were all below 17.
Brett, I've been a long time fan of yours but this video hurts your credibility big time. You come off as someone desperately trying to rationalize your stance on Jones.
Here are the problems with this video:
1) You say stats don't matter and are a tool for confirmation bias but then use an obscure stat as a tool for confirmation bias.
2) Jones hasn't taken many shots but has been successful. 4-5 on passes for 127 yards for passes of 20 yards or more.
3) Shurmur putting him in a position to succeed is what every good coach does for his QB, especially a young one. Bill Belichick has made a career as GOAT coach by doing this and he's facilitated Tom Brady becoming the GOAT QB.
4) Shurmur and Jones are a packaged deal that will be here beyond the preseason so even if he's making Jones look better than he is that will continue in the regular season.
5) This stat doesn't give the QB credit for hitting players in stride for YAC which is a major part of a modern offense.
6) You made a video last year about how the Saints are a methodical offense that is very efficient with Drew Brees under center.
7) The stat is pretty useless. It's as if you didn't even read your ranker. Two rookies and two mediocre QBs had a better ranking than Mahomes. By my count only 7 of the top 15 are good established QBs, these are the QBs that are supposed to be compared favorably to Jones. You couldn't get a more random list if you just put names into a hat.
8) The variance between these isn't that big either. The difference between 8 and 17 is 0.7 of a yard. So how much does the ranking even mean?
9) QBs not in that list, because they're below Alex Smith, include Tom Brady (7.7), Ben Roethlisberger (7.7), Andrew Luck (7.6), and Drew Brees (7.1).
10) You lucked out that sitting there at 16/17 where Jones would fall were two perfect examples of game managers in Dalton and Smith. If Jones performed WORSE in this stat and had 7.6, you wouldn't even make this video because "this puts him between Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Andrew Luck" doesn't corroborate your point and would make your argument null and void. For that argument to make statistical sense you should have looked at QBs at 16 or lower since presumably the lower you go the more "game manager" those QBs become and this way you wouldn't be looking at two random QBs in a random list that just so happened to be at 16 and 17.
In summary, you're great at analyzing plays. However, you abused statistics something fierce here. Ironically after lecturing others for doing the same. You pretty clearly want to defend a take that right now appears to possibly (keyword here) be uninformed and did a sloppy job of making your case. I don't know 1/1000 of what you know in analyzing film but I know how to call bullshit on stats abuse.
Jones got hot in game 1 and has stayed hot. It's really that simple. The guy has been in a zone.
And by and large he's made most of the throws you'd have to make in most games.
Now, the great unknowns we all think about remain:
-- Can he perform similarly against the Varsity Ds?
-- Can he manage real game speed?
-- Can he perform as a similar level for a full game?
-- Can he deal with pressure?
-- Can he make plays off script?
-- Etc.
The best way to start getting these answers is for the DJ to play right away. But it seems we're going old school and will force him to wait...
But it’s just a mini camp, then they talked about how good he looked in practice. But it’s just practice.
Now he’s playing against other teams in preseason and he looks great. But it’s only preseason. Hopefully at some point he’ll just look terrible and all the naysayers will be proven right
this analysis is basically correct. Jones is being managed within a well-defined system with mostly pre-defined reads and plays that require simple execution. That's basically this guy's argument.
Why does it bother you so?
Jones is not improvising, making multiple reads, or making very many daring throws. He is being handled carefully and so far he is excelling.
as it's just not a well made argument. As it is he contradicts all his main points from the start
Honestly, on a 5/5 TD drive after saying 'you have to watch tape' you basically gloss over 'accuracy, ball placement, timing, decision-making' by the QB. Say these are important but still champion the coach? None of that makes any sense really
Also I'm not sure why improvising is some definitive measure. In fact, you might call a rook who makes the right reads and DOESN'T tuck & run too often more NFL ready. So IMO his argument is vague and poorly made (whether or not you like DJ)
RE: I don't think anyone's bothered by it so much Â
as it's just not a well made argument. As it is he contradicts all his main points from the start
Honestly, on a 5/5 TD drive after saying 'you have to watch tape' you basically gloss over 'accuracy, ball placement, timing, decision-making' by the QB. Say these are important but still champion the coach? None of that makes any sense really
Also I'm not sure why improvising is some definitive measure. In fact, you might call a rook who makes the right reads and DOESN'T tuck & run too often more NFL ready. So IMO his argument is vague and poorly made (whether or not you like DJ)
Jones isn't making the "right" read. He is making the "only" read. The play is tight and defined. He excelled in this in college. That's not how the greats play the position.
RE: RE: I don't think anyone's bothered by it so much Â
as it's just not a well made argument. As it is he contradicts all his main points from the start
Honestly, on a 5/5 TD drive after saying 'you have to watch tape' you basically gloss over 'accuracy, ball placement, timing, decision-making' by the QB. Say these are important but still champion the coach? None of that makes any sense really
Also I'm not sure why improvising is some definitive measure. In fact, you might call a rook who makes the right reads and DOESN'T tuck & run too often more NFL ready. So IMO his argument is vague and poorly made (whether or not you like DJ)
Jones isn't making the "right" read. He is making the "only" read. The play is tight and defined. He excelled in this in college. That's not how the greats play the position.
What are you talking about? One play? Or all 30 of his pass attempts?
RE: RE: RE: I don't think anyone's bothered by it so much Â
as it's just not a well made argument. As it is he contradicts all his main points from the start
Honestly, on a 5/5 TD drive after saying 'you have to watch tape' you basically gloss over 'accuracy, ball placement, timing, decision-making' by the QB. Say these are important but still champion the coach? None of that makes any sense really
Also I'm not sure why improvising is some definitive measure. In fact, you might call a rook who makes the right reads and DOESN'T tuck & run too often more NFL ready. So IMO his argument is vague and poorly made (whether or not you like DJ)
Jones isn't making the "right" read. He is making the "only" read. The play is tight and defined. He excelled in this in college. That's not how the greats play the position.
What are you talking about? One play? Or all 30 of his pass attempts?
All of them. He is executing simple concepts. He is not dropping back and going through multiple reads. He has his main target and his outlet. That's most of what Jones is doing.
Geez, the guy's been the best QB in the NFL in the 2019 season Â
Quote:
Is useless if you can't admit your mistakes. I certainly can't say for sure that is what is happening here, but it doesn't seem that unlikely given some of the feedback by posters I trust.
Maybe one day he'll do a video like this for Daniel Jones:
I was wrong - Patrick Mahomes is ridiculously good
I hope!
No way. I don't believe you!
I think there's a certain type of person that thinks being a pessimist is a badge of honor. We have a few of those people here. They call themselves realists. Almost no one is taking this preseason as some undeniable proof that Jones will be some HOFer but instead of enjoying something we maybe have never seen before in preseason, these people find the need to flex their "realist" muscles. I think they think it makes them more mature or something. I don't even know.
He isn't, but unfortunately, someone who has put out great mostly unbiased content before fell in the same trap of rationalizing what now looks like a possibly uninformed opinion. He lost a lot of credibility with this video. He's still good but I no longer view him as an unbiased analyst.
Quote:
.
He isn't, but unfortunately, someone who has put out great mostly unbiased content before fell in the same trap of rationalizing what now looks like a possibly uninformed opinion. He lost a lot of credibility with this video. He's still good but I no longer view him as an unbiased analyst.
Well, not only is this video uninformed, it is in reaction to a previous, just as uninformed video. So, I'm not thinking the guy had any credibility to begin with.
I guess if the sole purpose was to say not to read to much into preseason, well it shouldn't have been billed as a comp between 3 rook QBs
But then talking stats IS reading into it. And saying stats are often misinterpreted while citing ONE random meaningless one as what...? The QB playing well isn't playing THAT well (while ignoring the overall league numbers, TB, DB etc for no reason)
While only breaking down ONE drive, the first (meaningless) preseason drive of ONE of the rook QBs? What could that possibly prove?
Reminds me of a HS student writing a lot, but the A having literally nothing to do w/ the Q (see Billy Madison)
And slayton! Those two may develop chemistry as rookies
Quote:
In comment 14542677 DonQuixote said:
Quote:
.
He isn't, but unfortunately, someone who has put out great mostly unbiased content before fell in the same trap of rationalizing what now looks like a possibly uninformed opinion. He lost a lot of credibility with this video. He's still good but I no longer view him as an unbiased analyst.
Well, not only is this video uninformed, it is in reaction to a previous, just as uninformed video. So, I'm not thinking the guy had any credibility to begin with.
The problem is the guy seems like a better analyst of plays than stats guy. So he used a stat that is kind of meaningless and he was sloppy. Look at my post of the players with intended passing yards and look at the previous post who wasn't on that list. It debunks this stat. Ironically he spent like 5 minutes telling us how useless stats are and then himself used a useless stat to prove his point. Honestly, you could have as credible a lost if you just put QBs' names into a hat.
That list proves nothing and he just got lucky that two game managers happened to be 16 and 17 because so that he could make the point. It's an abuse of statistics at its finest. Looking at 2 specific data points to prove a point. At the very least he should have looked at 16 or later because if his point held 18 would be an even bigger game manager and so on. But no, it just so happened that the two perfect game managers were at 16 and 17. And you could find 4 of the best QBs below that but because he wasn't looking below 17 and was just looking at two random points it looks like he said something profound Inexcusable abuse of stats.
An example of this would be like saying no QB who threw for exactly 4,000 yards has won a Super Bowl and therefore saying that only QBs with fewer than 4,000 yards can win a Super Bowl.
Quote:
this isn't complicated. All you need to do is watch the kid play. He's been amazing. Anyone who says otherwise probably has an agenda.
Can he still be a bust? Can he still suck? Sure.
But no one expected him to be THIS good.
In a more "water downed" than ever preseason. Save the judgement for reg season games. Period..its not like years past .
You're right about judgement until he plays in the regular season. But in a more water downed than ever preaseason, then shouldn't everyone be lighting it up? The "better" prospects like Murray and Haskins, the rookie sensation Mayfield, and even veteran qbs should all have performed better than Jones then, right? But, yet, Jones has been better
2) Jameis Winston
3) Ryan Fitzpatrick
4) Sam Darnold
5) Russell Wilson
6) Patrick Mahomes
7) Baker Mayfield
8) Jared Goff
9) Aaron Rodgers
10) Mitchell Trubisky
11) Deshaun Watson
12) Matt Ryan
13) Joe Flacco
14) Lamar Jackson
15) Josh Rosen
16) Andy Dalton
17) Alex Smith
This is the hill he's willing to die on? By my count only 7 of these QBs are even any good, out of the remaining 10, 8 were nothing special or young but didn't have amazing seasons and 2 were guys like Dalton and Smith who are meh. 5 QBs including career backup Fitzpatrick and mediocre Jameis Winston had better stats than Patrick Mahomes. As already mentioned, some of the best QBs in the NFL didn't make this list. This stat is nonsense. You might as well just pick random QB names out of a bag. Honestly, a disappointing video by a guy trying to put out edgy commentary and save face. He's a guy that as I said, I thought was above that. Too bad.
I know right. When I saw the top four, I'm like what is he getting at. Brady's not even there
Quote:
has also made several beautiful deep throws which produced a high number of "intended air yards." That includes the deep balls to Latimer and Golden.
I forget Slayton. Thanks.
And slayton! Those two may develop chemistry as rookies
Quote:
In comment 14542674 AcidTest said:
Quote:
has also made several beautiful deep throws which produced a high number of "intended air yards." That includes the deep balls to Latimer and Golden.
And slayton! Those two may develop chemistry as rookies
I forgot Slayton. Thanks.
Yep, this what DG was saying when he was in full bloom love. DJ looks like professional qb.
Here are the problems with this video:
1) You say stats don't matter and are a tool for confirmation bias but then use an obscure stat as a tool for confirmation bias.
2) Jones hasn't taken many shots but has been successful. 4-5 on passes for 127 yards for passes of 20 yards or more.
3) Shurmur putting him in a position to succeed is what every good coach does for his QB, especially a young one. Bill Belichick has made a career as GOAT coach by doing this and he's facilitated Tom Brady becoming the GOAT QB.
4) Shurmur and Jones are a packaged deal that will be here beyond the preseason so even if he's making Jones look better than he is that will continue in the regular season.
5) This stat doesn't give the QB credit for hitting players in stride for YAC which is a major part of a modern offense.
6) You made a video last year about how the Saints are a methodical offense that is very efficient with Drew Brees under center.
7) The stat is pretty useless. It's as if you didn't even read your ranker. Two rookies and two mediocre QBs had a better ranking than Mahomes. By my count only 7 of the top 15 are good established QBs, these are the QBs that are supposed to be compared favorably to Jones. You couldn't get a more random list if you just put names into a hat.
8) The variance between these isn't that big either. The difference between 8 and 17 is 0.7 of a yard. So how much does the ranking even mean?
9) QBs not in that list, because they're below Alex Smith, include Tom Brady (7.7), Ben Roethlisberger (7.7), Andrew Luck (7.6), and Drew Brees (7.1).
10) You lucked out that sitting there at 16/17 where Jones would fall were two perfect examples of game managers in Dalton and Smith. If Jones performed WORSE in this stat and had 7.6, you wouldn't even make this video because "this puts him between Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Andrew Luck" doesn't corroborate your point and would make your argument null and void. For that argument to make statistical sense you should have looked at QBs at 16 or lower since presumably the lower you go the more "game manager" those QBs become and this way you wouldn't be looking at two random QBs in a random list that just so happened to be at 16 and 17.
In summary, you're great at analyzing plays. However, you abused statistics something fierce here. Ironically after lecturing others for doing the same. You pretty clearly want to defend a take that right now appears to possibly (keyword here) be uninformed and did a sloppy job of making your case. I don't know 1/1000 of what you know in analyzing film but I know how to call bullshit on stats abuse.
Remember all his income comes from people believing he knows something. He already lambasted Daniel Jones. His ability to make money goes down if Jones is a good QB so he must continue to knock him despite all the evidence in front of him. At some point he can't bash him anymore and will do a 180 like with Patrick Mahomes. But honestly, who cares about Brett Kollmann? He is just a fan and not a professional scout or NFL FO guy.
2. Brett is really quite good at this stuff. However,
3. Apparently he is also very butt hurt over the Jones pick, as stated by someone else on the thread. VERY butt hurt.
Remember all his income comes from people believing he knows something. He already lambasted Daniel Jones. His ability to make money goes down if Jones is a good QB so he must continue to knock him despite all the evidence in front of him. At some point he can't bash him anymore and will do a 180 like with Patrick Mahomes. But honestly, who cares about Brett Kollmann? He is just a fan and not a professional scout or NFL FO guy.
Player evaluation mistakes are one thing but all he had to do was look at his list, the top 4 QBs and QBs that weren't on there to see that this argument is garbage. Extremely sloppy.
If the term is being used to say he doesn’t throw the ball in the air far enough, then he is looking for stats, not how the QB executes the offense being called.
You know who was a poor game manager? Jeff George. But I bet this guy loved how he chucked the ball down the field. So that’s nice.
This vid states a few hypotheses (stats are misleading, preseason doesn't matter much) then uses a SINGLE PRESEASON STAT to make his point
He also introduces it as a comp between 3 players. Then using that ONE stat again, implies 2 are better (mostly due to air yards I guess?)
He also says to use film. Where's film on KM & DH? And why do we cherry pick the FIRST PRESEASON DRIVE of a rook? That too while ignoring later drives that showed tougher / deep throws. Then says the good throws were his coach and scheme
It's just a poorly constructed, contradictory argument. The only value is a platitude about preseason isn't everything? Even ignorant fans don't need 15 min on these QBs, much less using ONE example as some kind of proof of what's basically a cliche?
If the term is being used to say he doesn’t throw the ball in the air far enough, then he is looking for stats, not how the QB executes the offense being called.
You know who was a poor game manager? Jeff George. But I bet this guy loved how he chucked the ball down the field. So that’s nice.
Nice...good post. I said almost the same thing above (w/ Brady & George as 2 examples lol). Tho yours is much more eloquent!
Quote:
That is the job of every QB at every level of football. Good game managers win games and Superbowls. Tom Brady is a game manager. So is Eli. So is Ryan Tannehill. They do it with varying degrees of success.
If the term is being used to say he doesn’t throw the ball in the air far enough, then he is looking for stats, not how the QB executes the offense being called.
You know who was a poor game manager? Jeff George. But I bet this guy loved how he chucked the ball down the field. So that’s nice.
Nice...good post. I said almost the same thing above (w/ Brady & George as 2 examples lol). Tho yours is much more eloquent!
Joe Montana is another example. Also another example right there with Tom Brady of having an all-time great coach putting him in a position to succeed. If Shurmur does that to Jones how is this a knock on Jones? Was that a knock on Montana and Brady? Maybe a QB like Peyton Manning can succeed with any OC. But Peyton Manning is probably the most unique QB in the NFL in that sense. First ballot HOFer Drew Brees didn't do much until he got Payton.
Biggest concern right now with DJones is his ability to feel the rush. He’s even commented about stepping up into the pocket when he feels the pressure. He should learn and get better in the pocket.
Those with agendas want to try to further justify them and their dislike for Jones. I’m not so sure most of them will ever admit they were wrong! Who cares anyway. If DJones gets the Giants to the playoffs and is successful, who cares if he’s a system QB or not. Could you call Tom Brady a system QB? Coaches are supposed to put their players in position to be successful and Shurmur is doing just that. How do you think Keenum and Foles were so successful ?!
And by and large he's made most of the throws you'd have to make in most games.
Now, the great unknowns we all think about remain:
-- Can he perform similarly against the Varsity Ds?
-- Can he manage real game speed?
-- Can he perform as a similar level for a full game?
-- Can he deal with pressure?
-- Can he make plays off script?
-- Etc.
The best way to start getting these answers is for the DJ to play right away. But it seems we're going old school and will force him to wait...
One more year, under the tutelage of Shurmer & Eli, will gag the naysayers, and put to rest this offseason banter. We are looking at an athlete with the ability to lead, and represent this team, for the next decade.
One note specific to the Jones criticism on the TD vs the jets, he didn't make the same mistake vs the bears, he threw it with more loft and distance.
If this guy is right that his QB coach would've criticized him on Monday morning, he took that criticism and fixed it the next week.
And by and large he's made most of the throws you'd have to make in most games.
Now, the great unknowns we all think about remain:
-- Can he perform similarly against the Varsity Ds?
-- Can he manage real game speed?
-- Can he perform as a similar level for a full game?
-- Can he deal with pressure?
-- Can he make plays off script?
-- Etc.
The best way to start getting these answers is for the DJ to play right away. But it seems we're going old school and will force him to wait...
I actually with most of those bullet points (save "Etc")
But the idea that he has to play immediately I don't. Sure sitting too long is not good, and he definitely needs live action. But people act like there's no value to watching, when the reality is you learn A LOT that you wouldn't normally while playing. Agreed it's different player to player, and staff / team / culture all play roles, but even tho I wouldn't mind him starting ASAP, DJ is the type who will gain a lot out of even a full yr at #2
It's not some all or nothing moment. And possibly a great thing for a rook esp while adjusting to all the stuff we fans ignore like moving, new city, new everything no matter how nice the paycheck is or being a pro athlete seems...not the worst thing even if he would succeed starting game 1. And that ignoring Eli's side, to which unless he's awful or just much worse than DJ, he's more than deserved to start this season...
One note specific to the Jones criticism on the TD vs the jets, he didn't make the same mistake vs the bears, he threw it with more loft and distance.
If this guy is right that his QB coach would've criticized him on Monday morning, he took that criticism and fixed it the next week.
He probably made solid arguments with regards to the game tape but he completely abused the stat that he used. He used a stat that seems to not correlate with much and got lucky that Jones ended up falling between two game managers that helped corroborate the point. Once again if Jones did WORSE in this stat and ended up at 7.6 and not 8.2, his argument would be shot to pieces. Then he'd have to criticize him buy saying he's between Brady, Big Ben, and Andrew Luck. Still better than that scrub Brees though.
*I'm taking the stats presented at face value, but I wouldn't be surprised since the 4 QBs mentioned there were all below 17.
obvious, yet important!
And his overall point is do t take too much from preseason so I wouldn't take too much from his AIAY segment, he was just trying to prove a point.
Here are the problems with this video:
1) You say stats don't matter and are a tool for confirmation bias but then use an obscure stat as a tool for confirmation bias.
2) Jones hasn't taken many shots but has been successful. 4-5 on passes for 127 yards for passes of 20 yards or more.
3) Shurmur putting him in a position to succeed is what every good coach does for his QB, especially a young one. Bill Belichick has made a career as GOAT coach by doing this and he's facilitated Tom Brady becoming the GOAT QB.
4) Shurmur and Jones are a packaged deal that will be here beyond the preseason so even if he's making Jones look better than he is that will continue in the regular season.
5) This stat doesn't give the QB credit for hitting players in stride for YAC which is a major part of a modern offense.
6) You made a video last year about how the Saints are a methodical offense that is very efficient with Drew Brees under center.
7) The stat is pretty useless. It's as if you didn't even read your ranker. Two rookies and two mediocre QBs had a better ranking than Mahomes. By my count only 7 of the top 15 are good established QBs, these are the QBs that are supposed to be compared favorably to Jones. You couldn't get a more random list if you just put names into a hat.
8) The variance between these isn't that big either. The difference between 8 and 17 is 0.7 of a yard. So how much does the ranking even mean?
9) QBs not in that list, because they're below Alex Smith, include Tom Brady (7.7), Ben Roethlisberger (7.7), Andrew Luck (7.6), and Drew Brees (7.1).
10) You lucked out that sitting there at 16/17 where Jones would fall were two perfect examples of game managers in Dalton and Smith. If Jones performed WORSE in this stat and had 7.6, you wouldn't even make this video because "this puts him between Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Andrew Luck" doesn't corroborate your point and would make your argument null and void. For that argument to make statistical sense you should have looked at QBs at 16 or lower since presumably the lower you go the more "game manager" those QBs become and this way you wouldn't be looking at two random QBs in a random list that just so happened to be at 16 and 17.
In summary, you're great at analyzing plays. However, you abused statistics something fierce here. Ironically after lecturing others for doing the same. You pretty clearly want to defend a take that right now appears to possibly (keyword here) be uninformed and did a sloppy job of making your case. I don't know 1/1000 of what you know in analyzing film but I know how to call bullshit on stats abuse.
Excellent response
And by and large he's made most of the throws you'd have to make in most games.
Now, the great unknowns we all think about remain:
-- Can he perform similarly against the Varsity Ds?
-- Can he manage real game speed?
-- Can he perform as a similar level for a full game?
-- Can he deal with pressure?
-- Can he make plays off script?
-- Etc.
The best way to start getting these answers is for the DJ to play right away. But it seems we're going old school and will force him to wait...
LOL. *Never* change, my friend.
Rinse and repeat
Now he’s playing against other teams in preseason and he looks great. But it’s only preseason. Hopefully at some point he’ll just look terrible and all the naysayers will be proven right
And look at this one pass that coulda woulda shoulda been intercepted...
Gimme a break.
Why does it bother you so?
Jones is not improvising, making multiple reads, or making very many daring throws. He is being handled carefully and so far he is excelling.
Honestly, on a 5/5 TD drive after saying 'you have to watch tape' you basically gloss over 'accuracy, ball placement, timing, decision-making' by the QB. Say these are important but still champion the coach? None of that makes any sense really
Also I'm not sure why improvising is some definitive measure. In fact, you might call a rook who makes the right reads and DOESN'T tuck & run too often more NFL ready. So IMO his argument is vague and poorly made (whether or not you like DJ)
Honestly, on a 5/5 TD drive after saying 'you have to watch tape' you basically gloss over 'accuracy, ball placement, timing, decision-making' by the QB. Say these are important but still champion the coach? None of that makes any sense really
Also I'm not sure why improvising is some definitive measure. In fact, you might call a rook who makes the right reads and DOESN'T tuck & run too often more NFL ready. So IMO his argument is vague and poorly made (whether or not you like DJ)
Jones isn't making the "right" read. He is making the "only" read. The play is tight and defined. He excelled in this in college. That's not how the greats play the position.
Quote:
as it's just not a well made argument. As it is he contradicts all his main points from the start
Honestly, on a 5/5 TD drive after saying 'you have to watch tape' you basically gloss over 'accuracy, ball placement, timing, decision-making' by the QB. Say these are important but still champion the coach? None of that makes any sense really
Also I'm not sure why improvising is some definitive measure. In fact, you might call a rook who makes the right reads and DOESN'T tuck & run too often more NFL ready. So IMO his argument is vague and poorly made (whether or not you like DJ)
Jones isn't making the "right" read. He is making the "only" read. The play is tight and defined. He excelled in this in college. That's not how the greats play the position.
What are you talking about? One play? Or all 30 of his pass attempts?
Quote:
In comment 14542937 ChaChing said:
Quote:
as it's just not a well made argument. As it is he contradicts all his main points from the start
Honestly, on a 5/5 TD drive after saying 'you have to watch tape' you basically gloss over 'accuracy, ball placement, timing, decision-making' by the QB. Say these are important but still champion the coach? None of that makes any sense really
Also I'm not sure why improvising is some definitive measure. In fact, you might call a rook who makes the right reads and DOESN'T tuck & run too often more NFL ready. So IMO his argument is vague and poorly made (whether or not you like DJ)
Jones isn't making the "right" read. He is making the "only" read. The play is tight and defined. He excelled in this in college. That's not how the greats play the position.
What are you talking about? One play? Or all 30 of his pass attempts?
All of them. He is executing simple concepts. He is not dropping back and going through multiple reads. He has his main target and his outlet. That's most of what Jones is doing.