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NFT: Braves at Mets Game 3. Matz

ZGiants98 : 8/25/2019 1:55 pm
Mets Lineup

Amed Rosario (R) SS
Jeff McNeil (L) 2B
Pete Alonso (R) 1B
Michael Conforto (L) RF
J.D. Davis (R) LF
Todd Frazier (R) 3B
Juan Lagares (R) CF
Rene Rivera (R) C
Steven Matz (R) P

Braves Lineup

Ronald Acuna Jr. (R) CF
Ozzie Albies (S) 2B
Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
Josh Donaldson (R) 3B
Adam Duvall (R) LF
Adeiny Hechavarria (R) SS
Charlie Culberson (R) RF
Tyler Flowers (R) C
Dallas Keuchel (L) P

Nightmare series continues. Braves up 1-0 off Donaldson HR.
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Bottom Line  
Gmanfandan : 8/25/2019 10:06 pm : link
Is we're 2 out of the wild card with 32 games to play. Games are still meaningful and anything can happen in a one game playoff (deGrom) and a short series (I think Matz is moving into the three spot)

Yes, the stars were blotted out from the sky vs. Braves - it was a group slump between Rosario, Panik, Alonso, Conforto etc. Cubbies - Phil - Wash - Phil coming up - LFGM!
Syracuse is playing the Iron Pigs tomorrow  
ZGiants98 : 8/25/2019 10:41 pm : link
Would another solid game from Nimmo there convince the Mets to activate him before Tuesday?

Nimmo for the Cubs series, Lowrie for the Phillies?
Watching the Braves games takes years off my life  
Chris684 : 8/26/2019 8:51 am : link
Friday night deGrom dominates, we score 1 run.

Saturday night we put up 5 but of course, don't pitch well.

Sunday, same story as Friday.

That said, so far we are 3-3 on a very difficult home stand and the Cubs games have always been the most important anyway. Take 2 out of 3 and get back on track.
Would've been nice of the Mets hitters  
Metnut : 8/26/2019 9:11 am : link
to show up this weekend. We are on the edge of a playoff race right?

Need to rebound vs the Cubs and finish with a winning homestand.
Crappy weekend - sort of shows the inconsistency with the roster  
Eric on Li : 8/26/2019 11:27 am : link
great SP but can't do it themselves, young hitters still learning (Conforto or Rosario should have won the game Friday), inconsistent D, improving BP but still some issues (namely Diaz & Callaway). On to the next one. As much as everything went right vs. Cleveland everything went wrong vs. Atlanta, and the guys returning from the injured list won't change that we need guys like Rosario and Conforto to come through when games are on the line.

Also the injuries are a bad excuse - every team has a few guys hurt this time of year (just as Atlanta had to start a guy we cut over Altherr due to $). Depth will improve (good riddance Altherr) but it is highly debatable whether or not Lowrie will be able to do more than Panik/Guillorme have done after missing an entire year and same with Nimmo/Lagares. Cano and his crappy D and whopping 85rc too.

On the positive side of the ledger Gimenez hit his 8th homer in Binghamton the other night, and that's pretty damn interesting for a 20 year old in AA who is only like 150 pounds. For reference, at age 20 in A+ Dom Smith hit 6 homers. Rosario hit 5 in his age 20 year split between A+ and AA. It looks like his power increase has come at the expense of some contact which is non-ideal, though he's also apparently had some bad luck with contact in general (babip 20 points lower than his previous low) and a few trips to the IL this year. The last few games he has been moved up to the top of the lineup again - which is likely where his role will project going forward so hopefully he can finish the year on a strong note. I believe BA said his glove was the best in AA at short and in terms of errors he's only got 11 in 103 games which is great for that position. Defense and game power are 2 big positives to take from a down year.
Comparing  
pjcas18 : 8/26/2019 11:38 am : link
"20 year old seasons" like this is not productive.

Dom's "20 year old season" was 2015, he turned 20 in June of that season.

Gimenez "20 year old season" is 2019 where he turned 20 in September of 2018. IOW Gimenez turns 21 in a week while dom spent 2 and a half months of his "20 year old season" as a 19-year old.

Citing Gimenez productivity is enough (for me at least), but for real age comparisons (if they even mean anything) for a similar age to Gimenez now, Dom hit 14 HR's and OPS'd .824 in BING in 2016.

RE: Comparing  
Eric on Li : 8/26/2019 11:57 am : link
In comment 14544825 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
"20 year old seasons" like this is not productive.

Dom's "20 year old season" was 2015, he turned 20 in June of that season.

Gimenez "20 year old season" is 2019 where he turned 20 in September of 2018. IOW Gimenez turns 21 in a week while dom spent 2 and a half months of his "20 year old season" as a 19-year old.

Citing Gimenez productivity is enough (for me at least), but for real age comparisons (if they even mean anything) for a similar age to Gimenez now, Dom hit 14 HR's and OPS'd .824 in BING in 2016.


That's fair I didn't check Dom's exact birthday, just the listed ages next to the seasons. And to be clear I'm not trying to equate the 2 - I believe every scouting report that cites Gimenez' lacking power the same as I believed the general consensus that said Dom had a lot of raw power that just wasn't showing up in-game yet. Just pointing out that there are at least a couple nice takeaways from what has by and large been classified as a down year for Gimenez.

I don't expect him to ever hit for much power but he has always produced a lot of XBH which IMO don't get valued as much as they should relative to homers in terms of perception. The met version of Daniel Murphy (.750 ops) was mostly a single digit homer guy but a doubles machine and obviously a good contact hitter (.288 ba). That's the type of offensive player I'm hoping Gimenez can be. Over his entire career in the minors to this point he's put up similar numbers (.276 ba / .757 ops) usually as 1 of the youngest guys in the league so I think that's a pretty reasonable goal.
Based  
ZGiants98 : 8/26/2019 6:58 pm : link
on the Mets pattern and what they have said it look like:

Nimmo off tonight. Plays Tuesday/Wednesday. Off Thursday. Activated Friday

Lowrie plays full game tonight. Off tomorrow. Plays Wednesday/Thursday. Off Friday. Activated Saturday.
Our lineup was putrid all weekend long and has been for weeks  
ZGiants98 : 8/26/2019 7:15 pm : link
Even when Davis, Conforto, and Rosario were carrying us for a stretch it was still bad.

And even yesterday with McNeil back finally, it was STILL a rest day for Ramos, so we had to have Rene Rivera compounding the bottom of the lineup with Frazier and the gang.

Lowrie and Nimmo might take a bit to get going but anyone who doesnt think they wouldnt be the upgrades of the century over crap like Frazier and Panik... well I just dont know what to say...

Nimmo had a .800 OPS when he went into the wall and injured himself this year.... we all know what he did last year. Lowrie is coming off two back to back .800 OPS years.

Panik is absolute shit. 2000 atbats over 5 years and the guy is an 80 wRC+ bat. Thats so bad its incomprehensible. We are trashing Cano and he's still had a miles better season than Panik has this year.

That said, I liked the Panik pickup as a stop gap and I still think he can come off the bench and put the ball in play late in the game but he's getting exposed now. Frazier too. Enough is enough. Frazier is awful. I also dont trust Lagare's hot streak. Love Lagares coming in for the victory formation and getting a few atbats to stay fresh but Nimmo is a massive upgrade from a guy with a .596 OPS.

Put me firmly in the camp that is VERY excited about a couple of these guys coming back. With suspect defense and a so so pen, we need all the help we can get right now. Every game counts and Nimmo and Lowrie could have been the difference in a game like yesterday (and Friday).
August 2019  
Eric on Li : 8/26/2019 7:43 pm : link
Panik (15 gp) - .292 / .333 / .354 (.688 ops)
Lagares (20 gp) - .293 / .369 / .414 (.783 ops)
(and both + defenders at key positions)

Frazier has sucked, no question there, Mcneil should 100% be replacing him at 3B just about every day going forward.

Not sure which stats you keep cherry picking re: Nimmo but he was hitting .200 on the year with a .667 ops. We have no idea what to expect with either him or Lowrie. Could either of them come back and provide a boost? Sure. But it's unfair to expect them to come back in the form they showed last year (both career years) - if they can just match what Panik and Lagares have done in August that would be a huge win since this has been a lost season for both of them to this point. It's unlikely Panik + Lagares can keep up their production but their performances in August were far from disasters.
This kid is going to be one to keep an eye on  
pjcas18 : 8/26/2019 8:07 pm : link
wonder if he plays full season in COLA next year.

could be the catcher of the future for 2022/2023

Quote:
Mathew Brownstein
@MBrownstein89
·
4m
Through three innings of play, Francisco Alvarez is 2-for-3 with a HR and two RBI for Kingsport.

That’s his 5th HR with Kingsport and 7th on the season.

It’s his his 3rd multi-hit game in his last five games. #Mets #LGM
Szapucki  
pjcas18 : 8/26/2019 8:20 pm : link
made his AA debut today, and likely last start of 2019.

Mathew Brownstein
@MBrownstein89
·
12m
Final line on Thomas Szapucki who made his Double-A debut:

4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 SO

81 pitches (49 strikes)

Over his last 3 starts (including tonight), Szapucki has allowed 3 runs (2 ER) over 15.0 IP with 12 SO.

#Mets #LGM
i'm really surprised they pushed him to AA but I guess why not  
Eric on Li : 8/26/2019 8:47 pm : link
give him a taste and hopefully he can start next year strong. He will likely be under a tight innings limit so the may as well use them in AA, although I still wouldn't mind seeing him get on track at A+ to get some good mojo. Not that it appears to have helped Dibrell at all this year lol. Poor guy.
RE: August 2019  
ZGiants98 : 8/26/2019 9:00 pm : link
In comment 14545353 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
Panik (15 gp) - .292 / .333 / .354 (.688 ops)
Lagares (20 gp) - .293 / .369 / .414 (.783 ops)
(and both + defenders at key positions)

Frazier has sucked, no question there, Mcneil should 100% be replacing him at 3B just about every day going forward.

Not sure which stats you keep cherry picking re: Nimmo but he was hitting .200 on the year with a .667 ops. We have no idea what to expect with either him or Lowrie. Could either of them come back and provide a boost? Sure. But it's unfair to expect them to come back in the form they showed last year (both career years) - if they can just match what Panik and Lagares have done in August that would be a huge win since this has been a lost season for both of them to this point. It's unlikely Panik + Lagares can keep up their production but their performances in August were far from disasters.


Cherry picking? Pretty clear what I said. When Nimmo went into the wall and injured his back he had a .800 OPS. He then played hurt for weeks and his numbers dipped. This isnt that difficult to look up and not sure where the cherry picking is. Cherry picking is when you single out Panik's 3 weeks with the Mets(89 wRC+ which is still awful) and citing that as something decent when he's actually been even worse every month for 5 years straight proceeding up to that.

Yes we dont know what to expect from Nimmo and Lowrie right away. I have said that. But you're talking about replacing waiver wire scrubs or bench players with players with huge high level success as recently as last year. Ill take those odds that thy will be much better than the slop we've rolled out for months now.
RE: Szapucki  
ZGiants98 : 8/26/2019 9:02 pm : link
In comment 14545398 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
made his AA debut today, and likely last start of 2019.

Mathew Brownstein
@MBrownstein89
·
12m
Final line on Thomas Szapucki who made his Double-A debut:

4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 SO

81 pitches (49 strikes)

Over his last 3 starts (including tonight), Szapucki has allowed 3 runs (2 ER) over 15.0 IP with 12 SO.

#Mets #LGM


He's all the way back. Awesome to see. Wouldnt be surprised to see him crack a 100 lists again heading into pre-2020 rankings. Definitely softens the blow of losing Kay.
Szapucki doesn't impact Kay or SWR  
pjcas18 : 8/26/2019 9:08 pm : link
for me, the only thing that would soften that blow is Stroman pitching like a pitcher who is worth Kay and SWR.

So far (SSS) it's not looking that way.

he's got a month (hopefully more) and potentially a year to "soften the blow"

but that's just how I look at it - everyone is different.

I view Kelenic and Dunn the same way. Szapucki or whoever doesn't change losing them for me.

Only thing that will is Diaz and Cano.
RE: Szapucki doesn't impact Kay or SWR  
ZGiants98 : 8/26/2019 9:18 pm : link
In comment 14545438 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
for me, the only thing that would soften that blow is Stroman pitching like a pitcher who is worth Kay and SWR.

So far (SSS) it's not looking that way.

he's got a month (hopefully more) and potentially a year to "soften the blow"

but that's just how I look at it - everyone is different.

I view Kelenic and Dunn the same way. Szapucki or whoever doesn't change losing them for me.

Only thing that will is Diaz and Cano.


Not saying it makes up for losing them. I was speaking in terms of depth close to the majors. Kay was in AAA and pretty close to a call up heading into 2020. Szapucki essentially replaces that "depth" if he's succeeding in AA... he doesnt replace the player though.
RE: RE: Szapucki doesn't impact Kay or SWR  
pjcas18 : 8/26/2019 9:25 pm : link
In comment 14545445 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
In comment 14545438 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


for me, the only thing that would soften that blow is Stroman pitching like a pitcher who is worth Kay and SWR.

So far (SSS) it's not looking that way.

he's got a month (hopefully more) and potentially a year to "soften the blow"

but that's just how I look at it - everyone is different.

I view Kelenic and Dunn the same way. Szapucki or whoever doesn't change losing them for me.

Only thing that will is Diaz and Cano.



Not saying it makes up for losing them. I was speaking in terms of depth close to the majors. Kay was in AAA and pretty close to a call up heading into 2020. Szapucki essentially replaces that "depth" if he's succeeding in AA... he doesnt replace the player though.


Yeah I guess. The Mets probably traded 3 of their top 5 pitchers from the farm and two of them were the two closest to contributing (with expectations).

It sort of forces them to keep Stroman and Wheeler - and I hope they do. Stroman would obviously have to be traded away to get rid of, but I hope they roll with this same rotation next year.

that would soften the blow for me of dealing two of the "successors" in Dunn and Kay.
Lowrie 0-3 tonight.  
ZGiants98 : 8/26/2019 9:25 pm : link
:(
I still think Dunn is a reliever  
ZGiants98 : 8/26/2019 9:29 pm : link
He's actually trending downward (99 most recent BA ranking).

I viewed Kay as Vargas's replacement if we had the previous setup going into next year...basically a 5th SP with maybe a little more upside. I never really viewed him as a guy with Wheeler or Stroman's upside.

If that ends up being the case I dont think either are really big losses.

Time will tell.
Either  
pjcas18 : 8/26/2019 9:39 pm : link
one of them though could have served as a bridge to the next guy at a very low cost.

instead of Oswalt or Lockett or AAAA scrubs (which Dunn and Kay may also be - but they also might not be.)

Only one manager would move  
dep026 : 8/26/2019 10:25 pm : link
The worst hitter in majors in August and probably since the ASB to the lead off spot.

But Kapler has no shame. He would fuck up the 29’ Yankees.
RE: RE: August 2019  
Eric on Li : 8/27/2019 1:01 am : link
In comment 14545432 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:

Cherry picking? Pretty clear what I said. When Nimmo went into the wall and injured his back he had a .800 OPS. He then played hurt for weeks and his numbers dipped. This isnt that difficult to look up and not sure where the cherry picking is. Cherry picking is when you single out Panik's 3 weeks with the Mets(89 wRC+ which is still awful) and citing that as something decent when he's actually been even worse every month for 5 years straight proceeding up to that.


It's cherry picking to cite Panik's only games as a met in saying he has been decent enough that he's not an excuse for losses? He signed for the minimum and has outperformed Cano's $20m 85 wrc (and played better D). What other games should be included in judging his performance as a met?
rough start, strong finish  
pjcas18 : 8/27/2019 1:03 am : link
Michael Mayer
@mikemayerMMO
Mets first round pick Brett Baty tonight for Kingsport:

4-for-5, 3B, BB, RBI, 3 R

brutal  
pjcas18 : 8/27/2019 1:04 am : link
start to his career, but encouraging finish to the season:

Mathew Brownstein
@MBrownstein89
·
2h
Over his last 8 games, Baty is 13-for-36 (.361), with 3 doubles, triple, 2 HR & 4 RBI.

#Mets #LGM
Gimenez  
pjcas18 : 8/27/2019 1:10 am : link
3 for 5, like to see him finish strong too.

Mauricio (slumped to end the season - or over the past few weeks), Vientos and Newton all in the lineup together in COLA (one of the few times this season) and all had hits.

Baty and Alvarez for KING today combined to go

7 for 11, 5 R, 1 3B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB, 0 K's

he hit for great power numbers but brutal contact  
Eric on Li : 8/27/2019 1:11 am : link
18 XBH in 39 games is excellent (22 xbh in 44 games counting GCL). That's 70+ over a full season which is pretty uncommon.

32% k rate is awful, as is a .197 average (with a modest .264 babip). He had less singles than XBH - which is very odd.

I'm not a huge fan of Baty but with their track record in the last several drafts i'll be hopeful on the good until it goes the other way for an extended period of time.
RE: he hit for great power numbers but brutal contact  
pjcas18 : 8/27/2019 1:33 am : link
In comment 14545652 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
18 XBH in 39 games is excellent (22 xbh in 44 games counting GCL). That's 70+ over a full season which is pretty uncommon.

32% k rate is awful, as is a .197 average (with a modest .264 babip). He had less singles than XBH - which is very odd.

I'm not a huge fan of Baty but with their track record in the last several drafts i'll be hopeful on the good until it goes the other way for an extended period of time.


that was before today.

His average went up 20 points with his 4 for 5 day to .217. Still shitty, but underscores how strong his finish has been.

overall his debut year (so far) he has a .806 OPS (between GCL and KING), so yeah, disappointing - especially the k rate, but not a total loss.


Also no clue  
pjcas18 : 8/27/2019 1:46 am : link
what happened to Branden Fryman (Travis son).

He was hitting the cover off the ball in BK, and then he only played in one game since mid-July.

21st round, college senior pick, but he was batting .356 in 17 games and then nothing.

this is where as Mets fans, not having Adam Rubin as a beat reporter is noticeable. He would know this and have told us fans what happened.
.  
pjcas18 : 8/27/2019 9:39 am : link
Ernest Dove
@ernestdove
·
1m
Mets 2B prospect Carlos Cortes was 2 for 4 last night with his team leading 11th HR for @stluciemets

Continues his hottest offensive month of the season

23 G
.301/.389/.505/ 895
4 HR (7 in all other month combined)
BB/K--11/14
Cortes  
DanMetroMan : 8/27/2019 9:59 am : link
is a total butcher in the field. Close to a NP for me, terrible pick given the profile and bonus.
Cortes is interesting - seems to be a natural hitter but awful athlete  
Eric on Li : 8/27/2019 10:03 am : link
had a great contact rate in college, they had drafted him out of HS but he didn't sign (I remember Shecky saying they loved him then but didn't think he was signable) then got him overslot a couple years ago. His contact rates dropped a little bit as his power increased in his draft year, but his 15% K-rate/10% walk rate is still very solid for a guy with a near .750 OPS and respectable 40+ XBH.

His 17 errors at 2b in just 73 games are the issue, he's got to clean that up or else he's a light hitting DH. But if he does and continues progressing the bat seems to be legit if unspectacular. Could be another Murphy-esque 2b prospect.
RE: Cortes  
Eric on Li : 8/27/2019 10:07 am : link
In comment 14545888 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
is a total butcher in the field. Close to a NP for me, terrible pick given the profile and bonus.


They believe in the bat and it's playing - I have no issues with rolling the dice on pure hitting ability and hoping the rest works out (finding a position). MLB drafts are full of 3rd round picks that don't work out (even overslot).
RE: RE: Cortes  
DanMetroMan : 8/27/2019 10:17 am : link
In comment 14545901 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 14545888 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


is a total butcher in the field. Close to a NP for me, terrible pick given the profile and bonus.



They believe in the bat and it's playing - I have no issues with rolling the dice on pure hitting ability and hoping the rest works out (finding a position). MLB drafts are full of 3rd round picks that don't work out (even overslot).



"It's playing" is a stretch. He's a well below average athlete hitting .257. Walk rate is fine but unspectacular and he has 17 errors in less than half of a season at an "easy" position. "3rd round pick" ignores the fact he received over 1 million. MLB.com didn't rank him in their top 200 prospects in the 2018 draft and yet he went 83rd with a huge bonus. The upside never was all that high to make such a move.
The  
DanMetroMan : 8/27/2019 10:18 am : link
fact he's made 51 starts at DH despite his draft status (for a team only 3 games over .500 no less) is terrifying.
Shitty pick  
pjcas18 : 8/27/2019 10:27 am : link
but luckily he plays a position the Mets shouldn't need when/if he ever makes it far enough to be considered for the majors.

obviously his value in a trade is not good either, but he's still 22 years old, wouldn't be the first player to improve post-22.
I  
DanMetroMan : 8/27/2019 10:32 am : link
spoke to Jeff P about this extensively and he agreed the Mets college scouts need to be dumped. Look at Blake Tiberi... 3rd rounder... DOA immediately. Save me Conforto/Alonso examples. yes.. they NAILED those picks but they went in slots "everyone" saw them going. The Mets have a strange habit of reaching for low ceiling college players very high despite not saving money on them (Matt Reynolds?)
He's  
DanMetroMan : 8/27/2019 10:37 am : link
18 and considered a good athlete so I'm not saying anything other than commenting on his statline but 13th rounder Blaine McIntosh... 22 games...0 extra base hits... .235 slugging. Tough to pull off lol
RE: I  
pjcas18 : 8/27/2019 10:41 am : link
In comment 14545959 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
spoke to Jeff P about this extensively and he agreed the Mets college scouts need to be dumped. Look at Blake Tiberi... 3rd rounder... DOA immediately. Save me Conforto/Alonso examples. yes.. they NAILED those picks but they went in slots "everyone" saw them going. The Mets have a strange habit of reaching for low ceiling college players very high despite not saving money on them (Matt Reynolds?)


maybe that's a shift in approach, BVW first draft they definitely didn't seem to do that. they took 3 HS kids in the first 3 rounds then all college seniors for the next 7 picks all under slot. In fact they did sign one late HS kid, but so far the only players they signed besides the top 3 and that one other kid are all 4 year college seniors.

disappointing  
DanMetroMan : 8/27/2019 10:41 am : link
season for Gimenez but finishing solidly .385 5/5 K/BB over his last 10
RE: RE: I  
DanMetroMan : 8/27/2019 10:43 am : link
In comment 14545974 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14545959 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


spoke to Jeff P about this extensively and he agreed the Mets college scouts need to be dumped. Look at Blake Tiberi... 3rd rounder... DOA immediately. Save me Conforto/Alonso examples. yes.. they NAILED those picks but they went in slots "everyone" saw them going. The Mets have a strange habit of reaching for low ceiling college players very high despite not saving money on them (Matt Reynolds?)



maybe that's a shift in approach, BVW first draft they definitely didn't seem to do that. they took 3 HS kids in the first 3 rounds then all college seniors for the next 7 picks all under slot. In fact they did sign one late HS kid, but so far the only players they signed besides the top 3 and that one other kid are all 4 year college seniors.


PJ,
This draft was an outlier because they put all of their eggs in the Matthew Allan basket. They punted a bunch of picks because they believed in Allan that much. Doubtful that's going to be a consistent approach so I wouldn't reach much into it.
RE: RE: RE: I  
pjcas18 : 8/27/2019 10:44 am : link
In comment 14545977 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 14545974 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 14545959 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


spoke to Jeff P about this extensively and he agreed the Mets college scouts need to be dumped. Look at Blake Tiberi... 3rd rounder... DOA immediately. Save me Conforto/Alonso examples. yes.. they NAILED those picks but they went in slots "everyone" saw them going. The Mets have a strange habit of reaching for low ceiling college players very high despite not saving money on them (Matt Reynolds?)



maybe that's a shift in approach, BVW first draft they definitely didn't seem to do that. they took 3 HS kids in the first 3 rounds then all college seniors for the next 7 picks all under slot. In fact they did sign one late HS kid, but so far the only players they signed besides the top 3 and that one other kid are all 4 year college seniors.




PJ,
This draft was an outlier because they put all of their eggs in the Matthew Allan basket. They punted a bunch of picks because they believed in Allan that much. Doubtful that's going to be a consistent approach so I wouldn't reach much into it.


Well I like the approach. As a fan, I prefer the swing for HR's approach to the draft. So many of these kids fail may as well fail with a kid with high upside.
BA  
DanMetroMan : 8/27/2019 10:45 am : link
"From the fourth through 10th rounds, New York picked seven college seniors. Because they have no ability to return to school, most college seniors have very little negotiating leverage. Assuming all seven sign for roughly $10,000 apiece (and assuming the Mets spend the five percent overage), the Mets could save $1.75 million on those seven picks to shift to signing Allan."

So this was about Allan (sure maybe these were the college seniors they liked the most of the group) but this seems to be about a "special" case. So far so good with Allan but like with any HS arm... MASSIVE risk. Look at Cameron Planck. They basically flushed 1 million down the toilet.
it's hard for me to argue with the draft results  
Eric on Li : 8/27/2019 10:46 am : link
the athletic (Rosenthal) did an entire organization review last year and at that point (Pre-Alonso) the Mets were like 15th overall in fwar from draft picks over the last decade. In some recent update I saw they'd climbed and were expected to leap frog a few more teams into the top 10 because they don't have near as many guys still producing to raise their total.

Half of our current every day lineup was drafted (Nimmo, Mcneil, Conforto, Alonso). All four are borderline all stars. Matz + JDG (not to mention Harvey) were drafted (presumably by some scouts still there). Gsellman and Lugo were draft picks. Dom, Guillorme, Lagares, Nido too making half of our 25 man roster draft picks. Plawecki and Fulmer are MLB'ers elsewhere. Kay, Kelenic, Vientos, Dunn, Baty, Allen, Wolf, SWR etc. may continue to drive this group higher.

That's a lot of production in 1 decade (2010-2019). Easily double or triple the 2 previous decades (1990-2010). Progress is progress.
What  
DanMetroMan : 8/27/2019 10:49 am : link
I'm suggesting is I don't believe this is a "new" yearly approach. I think they liked Allan a whole lot. I don't see any shift in their ability to value college bats. The same scouts remain from Sandy's tenure and that kind of pick was mostly disastrous. Woodmansee? Reynolds? Tiberi? Nick Meyer? Quinn Brodey has been "okay" this season but is 24 in December, what's the upside? 5th OF? Winaker? So many of these types and so few "surprisingly solid". Teams like Oakland and St. Louis get fat on these types every year.
RE: it's hard for me to argue with the draft results  
DanMetroMan : 8/27/2019 10:51 am : link
In comment 14545988 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
the athletic (Rosenthal) did an entire organization review last year and at that point (Pre-Alonso) the Mets were like 15th overall in fwar from draft picks over the last decade. In some recent update I saw they'd climbed and were expected to leap frog a few more teams into the top 10 because they don't have near as many guys still producing to raise their total.

Half of our current every day lineup was drafted (Nimmo, Mcneil, Conforto, Alonso). All four are borderline all stars. Matz + JDG (not to mention Harvey) were drafted (presumably by some scouts still there). Gsellman and Lugo were draft picks. Dom, Guillorme, Lagares, Nido too making half of our 25 man roster draft picks. Plawecki and Fulmer are MLB'ers elsewhere. Kay, Kelenic, Vientos, Dunn, Baty, Allen, Wolf, SWR etc. may continue to drive this group higher.

That's a lot of production in 1 decade (2010-2019). Easily double or triple the 2 previous decades (1990-2010). Progress is progress.


Not really sure what this has to due with the Mets ability to identify non-1st round pick college bats. How many of these players you named fit that? How many over the past 10-15 drafts even? McNeil? Who they clearly undervalued and had a very unusual path? Tomas Nido? Really? He's a NEGATIVE WAR player for his career
RE: What  
pjcas18 : 8/27/2019 10:54 am : link
In comment 14545997 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
I'm suggesting is I don't believe this is a "new" yearly approach. I think they liked Allan a whole lot. I don't see any shift in their ability to value college bats. The same scouts remain from Sandy's tenure and that kind of pick was mostly disastrous. Woodmansee? Reynolds? Tiberi? Nick Meyer? Quinn Brodey has been "okay" this season but is 24 in December, what's the upside? 5th OF? Winaker? So many of these types and so few "surprisingly solid". Teams like Oakland and St. Louis get fat on these types every year.


You might be right but it's been one draft. Not sure anyone can draw conclusions from it.

And I do like players like Mangum and Fryman. Nic Gaddis is interesting.

Jayce  
DanMetroMan : 8/27/2019 10:56 am : link
Boyd, Michael Paez. This isn't about picks being busts. This is about guys immediately not being good with the label being "low upside" at the time of the pick. A guy like Blake Tiberi was supposed to be low upside but could hit... immediately stunk. Matt Reynolds, low upside but low floor.. Nope.
overreacting to 1 area can lead to throwing baby out w/ bath water  
Eric on Li : 8/27/2019 10:57 am : link
could they do better in specific areas? I'm sure. But the overall results are strong so you have to be careful what you change because you never know where there's a ripple effect. Don't let perfect be the enemy of good sort of thing. Especially in an org run by the Wilpons where "very very bad" is always a possibility and their spending still lags behind others at times (even with new rules).
RE: overreacting to 1 area can lead to throwing baby out w/ bath water  
DanMetroMan : 8/27/2019 11:15 am : link
In comment 14546015 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
could they do better in specific areas? I'm sure. But the overall results are strong so you have to be careful what you change because you never know where there's a ripple effect. Don't let perfect be the enemy of good sort of thing. Especially in an org run by the Wilpons where "very very bad" is always a possibility and their spending still lags behind others at times (even with new rules).


Different scouts for college and HS so I'm not sure I agree. Like I said, Alonso and Conforto are obviously "BIG hits" but both went where they were projected to go. The "consensus" on both guys was they were going to go when they did. Props to the player development on those 2. But generally speaking the college picks... OOF.
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