Early season games vs. Cowboys as a bellwether

I know it's early in the day to be using words like bellwether, but I went back in the past 20 years and looked at the times the Giants played the Cowboys early in the season (the first 3 games) and when you look deeper, when you look at how the game was played and the feel of it, it usually was an indicator of how the Giants would do in the upcoming season.

Since 2000, the Giants have played the Cowboys 9 times in the first 3 games of the season, so this will be the 10th time on Sunday. The Giants are 2-7 in those games, but while the score tells a story, the reality is what happens in the game usually tells a deeper tale

- 2003- Giants lose 35-32 in OT at home. You have to remember, this Giants team was coming off a good run to end 2002 to make the playoffs, until defensive collapses and Trey Junkin came into our lives. Many felt the Giants would challenge the Eagles in the NFC East. The Giants beat the Rams in Week 1 and had the Bill Parcells Cowboys on a Monday Night. The Giants took a 32-29 lead with :11 to go in the game. Easy win right? Matt Bryant kicks the ball out of bounds, which puts the ball at the 40 and no time off the clock. Bryant catches a pass and Cundiff hits a 52 yarder to send the game to OT where the Giants would lose. This type of sloppy, self inflicted play would be the eye opener that the Giants would find ways to blow games in 2003. Including losses to Kurt Kittner of the Falcons and Tim Hasselbeck of the Redskins at home. The Giants would go 4-12 and Fassel got fired.

- 2007- Giants lose 45-35 in season opener at Dallas. Now this game was a loss, but one in which you came out of the game feeling good about the offense (at least). It was a shootout, but Eli and Plax hooked up for 3 TDs, including a 60 yarder on the first drive. The Spags led defense hadn't gotten it together, but this was the game which Eli got hurt late and people said he would be out for several weeks. Eli suited up the next week vs. the Packers. This toughness by Eli got his teammates attention and established him as a leader, which there were questions still going into 2007 if that was the case, particularly with Tiki retired and talking trash in the press.

- 2009- Giants win the first game in Dallas 33-31. Eli is clutch down the stretch and begins to build up his own resume as a player who can make big plays down the stretch to come back and win on the road (see Dallas in 2011). But from a 2009 season standpoint, yes, it was a shootout, but the Giants defense allowed 251 yards rushing and won only because Dallas left too much time for Eli. The 2009 Giants would start out 5-0, but get buried in New Orleans, where the Saints could have scored over 50, but Payton called off the dogs. The Giants defense collapses as the Giants went 8-8, they Giants ranked 30th in the NFL in points allowed. Bill Sheridan was fired as DC.

-2012- Thursday Night season opener. It's usually meant to be a coronation of the previous Super Bowl winner at home. It kicked off the NFL season and up to that point the home team was undefeated. The Giants lost 24-17. It set the stage of an up and down and disappointing title defense, with the Giants missing the playoffs and not giving their team a chance to defend the title, particularly after Hurricane Sandy took the life out of the team.

-2013- Loss at Dallas 36-31. Yet another shootout, but what stuck out in this game was Eli's first pass was picked off on the first play of the season. The Giants turned it over twice more that resulted in Dallas TDs. Sloppy play. Eli led the NFL with 27 INTs in 2013. The Giants would start off 0-6 and the season was DOA when they hoped to host a Super Bowl.

2015- Road opener loss 27-26. Giants lost on the last play of the game (essentially), when Romo went down the field like nothing. Hit Giant killer Witten in the end zone with :07 to go in the game because overmatched LB Uani Unga decided to play a zone on Witten and drop 4 yards deep in the end zone, letting him just turn around and catch it. That set the stage for a series of mindboggling last second losses all year, including the Saints, Pats, Jets, and Panthers.

2016- Road opener win 20-19. Reversing the fortune of the previous year, the Giants actually found a way to win a close game in McAdoo's first game as coach. The defense played well, holding Elliott and Dak down in their first game, something which few other teams would do in 2016. And this set the stage for an 11-5 year, which included 8 wins by 8 points or less.

2017- Loss 19-3 at Dallas for the opener. This was another eye opener similar to 2003 that something was wrong. Going into 2017, the Giants were a trendy pick to make noise. They added offensive weapons to help out a poor offense in 2016 that was not much more than Odell slants. They drafted Engram. They signed Brandon Marshall. They had Shepard in his 2nd year. McAdoo slicked his hair back. Odell missed the game with an ankle injury, but the Giants looked so lifeless and boring on offense that you had to wonder how this could happen after an offseason to prepare. The defense played well to keep it close, but the offense was worse than the previous year. Similar to 2003 when the sloppiness showed Fassel was done. The lack of imagination and a plan showed that McAdoo was in over his head. The Giants would crash and burn at 3-13 and McAdoo and Reese would get fired during the season.

2018- Another road game at Dallas in Week 2, another 20-13 loss. This was Shurmur's first game and the score didn't indicate the fact that the Giants never really threatened the Cowboys. They got a garbage time TD. This game also showed that the Giants offensive line wasn't yet ready. Halapio got hurt and was lost for the year. The right side of the line of Flowers and Omameh had no clue how to block a stunt and both would get released eventually. In no small part to the offensive line, Eli would check down to Saquon 11 times in this game, for only 28 yards. Basically, this game showed that the Giants were a work in progress and not ready to contend.

That leaves us with Sunday. Honestly, for me the biggest thing to watch will be this new offensive line. Dallas has a really good defense (even with the suspensions). But if we see the Giants sustain drives, get Saquon yards, push the pocket and control the pass rush, that would be a very good sign for this Giants team. They aren't built for the shootouts that they used to do in Dallas. And if we see the defense show athleticism and heart with these young guys, we might have something to look forward to. I actually have some high hopes that Giants are going to open some eyes. They might not win, but if we see the arrow pointing up (unlike the past 2 years), it could actually be fun this year.