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Connecting Last Year's Failures to This Coming Season...

Allen in CNJ : 9/5/2019 7:21 pm
I'm going to preface what I'm writing here by making sure everyone knows that I KNOW there are a million "prediction" threads down below, but I feel this deserves it's own thread because of my perspective on last year's team & results vs. the prospects of this year's team.

We were literally 4 plays away from being 9-7 last year - and that has been well documented and discussed here, especially over the winter and in the offseason. The plays/games:

1) Carolina, last second FG loss.
2) @ the Eagles, last second FG loss.
3) @ Indy, last minute TD loss.
4) Dallas, @ home, the Cole Beasley play in the final 2 minutes.

Flip those outcomes, you have a 9-7 team that would've been a wildcard team.

Fast forward to this year, many units on this team have improved and/or gotten younger. The offensive line is vastly improved, and this will only translate into longer, clock eating drives with the running game. Add in a healthy Evan Engram, and a solid receiver corps that can COLLECTIVELY make plays and move the chains, and you have a very good offense that can move the ball on a regular basis.

There is no question the defense fits the latter description with their youth, and with that youth comes basically NO NFL experience. The defense is without question a crapshoot, however I think this group will play with more speed, will take more chances, and will not run out of gas (due to their youth) as quickly as the other units did last year. The big question is whether they can get a consistent pass rush going without adding pressure from the outside. But if they can get it together, and keep it together, this defense can be serviceable.

With an easier schedule, and a lot of upside on both sides of the ball, I honestly think this team can "flip" those close losses from last year and finish this season above .500. I know my perspective may really be through "rose colored glasses" but this take, to me, seems like pure common sense based on what we had last year, and what we have this year.

Feel free to fire away!

The analysis is sound (if not rose colored)  
Dave on the UWS : 9/5/2019 7:33 pm : link
However, many other teams could make the same claim. Many other teams have improved as well. Predictions are for Las Vegas. There is a lot of young talent. The arrow is pointing up.
Yeah..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 9/5/2019 7:37 pm : link
but if we onlyh played starting QB's, we'd have been 1-15......
RE: Yeah..  
Allen in CNJ : 9/5/2019 7:40 pm : link
In comment 14560334 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
but if we onlyh played starting QB's, we'd have been 1-15......


not sure what you mean by this point!
RE: RE: Yeah..  
Jim in Tampa : 9/5/2019 7:45 pm : link
In comment 14560340 Allen in CNJ said:
Quote:
In comment 14560334 FatMan in Charlotte said:


Quote:


but if we onlyh played starting QB's, we'd have been 1-15......



not sure what you mean by this point!

He's bitching about all the posters who pointed out that the Giants 2018 record would have been even worse if they hadn't won games against 2nd and 3rd string QBs.

(Never mind that it's actually true.)
Imagine the shitstorm on draftday...  
MOOPS : 9/5/2019 7:49 pm : link
had we lost some of those games and ended up say, 2-14, and drafted Daniel Jones with the second or third pick?
RE: Imagine the shitstorm on draftday...  
Giantology : 9/5/2019 7:59 pm : link
In comment 14560352 MOOPS said:
Quote:
had we lost some of those games and ended up say, 2-14, and drafted Daniel Jones with the second or third pick?


Considering there was a shitstorm over him being the 6th pick, I don't think we have to imagine.
RE: Imagine the shitstorm on draftday...  
.McL. : 9/5/2019 8:04 pm : link
In comment 14560352 MOOPS said:
Quote:
had we lost some of those games and ended up say, 2-14, and drafted Daniel Jones with the second or third pick?


I suspect that if the Giants had any of picks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 rather than 6, they still would have picked DJ8. And the shit storm would have been commensurately larger according to the pick...
Well written post  
ron mexico : 9/5/2019 8:06 pm : link
and I applaud your optimism.

whatís holding me back from sharing your optimism is the number of games that they had absolutely no chance of winning.

In the nfce Iíd say three games were competitive and three weren't.

You canít get far only being competitive in half your games.
Color however you wish  
joeinpa : 9/5/2019 8:14 pm : link
The defense could never get a stop to win the game, and the offense could never run a 4 min offense to keep the defense off the field

It was a 5-11 team because they were awful with the game on the line late in fourth quarters of games.

It wasnít close to being a play off caliber team
If Vernon lived up to his contract  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 9/5/2019 8:44 pm : link
We would be sniffing meaningful games in Dec.
Flowers virtually lost the opener by himself  
since1925 : 9/5/2019 8:55 pm : link
I was like playing without a right tackle. Downright embarrassing.
You are  
Les in TO : 9/5/2019 9:06 pm : link
What your record says you are. This team has been in a drought since 2012 with a minor taste of success in 2016 with Odell and defense carrying us through some tight games. I feel you are overrating the offense and as you said the defense is a big question mark. And until Jones gets the nod WB is a position of relative weakness
Some teams  
Pete in MD : 9/5/2019 10:22 pm : link
will be drastically better and others will fall off of a cliff, it happens pretty much every year in the NFL. But for some reason, the "experts" always seem to predict that teams will have the same win totals from the previous year.
RE: Color however you wish  
gmenatlarge : 9/6/2019 6:56 am : link
In comment 14560380 joeinpa said:
Quote:
The defense could never get a stop to win the game, and the offense could never run a 4 min offense to keep the defense off the field

It was a 5-11 team because they were awful with the game on the line late in fourth quarters of games.

It wasnít close to being a play off caliber team


+1 you don't just flip one play and win those games that's just nonsensical.
Every year is different  
ZogZerg : 9/6/2019 7:01 am : link
The take away is that the Giants maybe weren't as terrible as everyone thinks.

But, you can say that with just about every team. The NFL is truly a game of inches. Many games could go either way.

The bottom line is: the team has to learn how to win close games. And that's what the coach has been stressing. We'll see.
RE: You are  
Mdgiantsfan : 9/6/2019 7:04 am : link
In comment 14560493 Les in TO said:
Quote:
What your record says you are. This team has been in a drought since 2012 with a minor taste of success in 2016 with Odell and defense carrying us through some tight games. I feel you are overrating the offense and as you said the defense is a big question mark. And until Jones gets the nod WB is a position of relative weakness


^^^. No outside threat on offense. The Oline while on paper appears better, time will tell if thatís true. The defense has no threats to get after the QB and the secondary is going to be relying heavily on rookies.
The hope would be  
ShockNRoll : 9/6/2019 9:17 am : link
that this becomes a ball control, move the chains type offense, with a few explosive Barkley runs mixed in with some downfield plays by Engram and Shepard, and catch and run plays by Tate. This will keep opposing offenses off the field, limiting their possessions, and allowing the Giants to take some chances to create some turnovers on defense. I don't see any reason not to be optimistic about this team this year. I keep hoping this defense will turn around like Indy's did last year. It very well could be ugly early on, but I think as the season progresses, this defense becomes pretty good, with the building blocks starting to take place for next year.
Vegas doesn't agree, which adds to my pause  
JonC : 9/6/2019 9:30 am : link
The OL should be better, but we're weaker at WR, pass rush, and overall are now a very young football team. That tends to introduce inconsistency, unpredictability, and a lot of headshaking mistakes. Overall, we're turning the roster over but there's still significant development required and crucial holes to fill.

Where I think BBI is overrating us is the defense. It's very young with gaping holes across the LB unit. They need a physical presence, which is why I had targeted Za'Darius Smith in free agency, as one example.

I think is better than 4-5 win team, disagree with Cynthia Frelund on that front. 6-7 wins imo, get a few bounces and they could win 8.
RE: Vegas doesn't agree, which adds to my pause  
gidiefor : Mod : 9/6/2019 10:31 am : link
In comment 14560946 JonC said:
Quote:
The OL should be better, but we're weaker at WR, pass rush, and overall are now a very young football team. That tends to introduce inconsistency, unpredictability, and a lot of headshaking mistakes. Overall, we're turning the roster over but there's still significant development required and crucial holes to fill.

Where I think BBI is overrating us is the defense. It's very young with gaping holes across the LB unit. They need a physical presence, which is why I had targeted Za'Darius Smith in free agency, as one example.

I think is better than 4-5 win team, disagree with Cynthia Frelund on that front. 6-7 wins imo, get a few bounces and they could win 8.


Jon -- I think the DLine is going to be pretty solid, and I also think the Giants are going to have a pass rush -- it may not be dominating but it will happen - Golden, Carter and XImines can all pass rush imo -- if the three of them can't exceed last year's total pass rush numbers I'll be very surprised (unless we lose all of them somehow)

The real question is whether or not the backfield will gel -- that's where I foresee problems --

I really don't think the WR corps is going to be a let down either -- they don't need to be OBJ - they just need to be solid and productive and this I think they will be

To me the key is whether Remmers will hold up on offense -- that is a big deal - and whether the DBs can handle the heat out there -- those are my biggest areas of concern
gidie  
JonC : 9/6/2019 11:02 am : link
I suspect when we play good football teams, the weakness at WR and LB will be plainly visible. Carter and Ximines are promising, but they were third round picks for a reason. Golden is nearly invisible so far with one ACL on the docket.

AO is fun to listen to but his weaknesses are clear and not going to be fixed. He's a gap guesser, he's had some moments guarding TEs but isn't really great at it. Not sure they've solved how to cover a TE yet, which is frustrating to watch (think of ancient Witten and how easily he manipulates and gets open). Without the rush, the youth in the secondary could be exposed.
Vegas..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 9/6/2019 11:05 am : link
really shouldn't be used as a barometer. The lines are set for the betting action.

Out of the 32 teams last season, 21 of them were more than +/- 2 off the number Vegas set.
RE: gidie  
gidiefor : Mod : 9/6/2019 11:13 am : link
In comment 14561085 JonC said:
Quote:
I suspect when we play good football teams, the weakness at WR and LB will be plainly visible. Carter and Ximines are promising, but they were third round picks for a reason. Golden is nearly invisible so far with one ACL on the docket.

AO is fun to listen to but his weaknesses are clear and not going to be fixed. He's a gap guesser, he's had some moments guarding TEs but isn't really great at it. Not sure they've solved how to cover a TE yet, which is frustrating to watch (think of ancient Witten and how easily he manipulates and gets open). Without the rush, the youth in the secondary could be exposed.


Hey I remember a Third Rounder, Justin Tuck, who worked out pretty good for us. The one game Golden played in preseason he had a ton of impact.

With Barkley, Engram and Shepard -- there is room for Fowler and Latimer to do stuff -- and both of those guys have made some really good plays.

I agree with you about Ogletree though --
RE: Vegas..  
armstead98 : 9/6/2019 11:27 am : link
In comment 14561088 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
really shouldn't be used as a barometer. The lines are set for the betting action.

Out of the 32 teams last season, 21 of them were more than +/- 2 off the number Vegas set.


Or put another way, Vegas lines reflect conventional wisdom. The majority of the public thinks the Giants will suck. The thinking goes, Eli's old and terrible, they traded OBJ, lost Collins, Gettleman is a dinosaur who shuns analytics, Shurmer is nothing special.

With this narrative, of course the line is where it is.

RE: Yeah..  
BlueLou'sBack : 9/6/2019 12:09 pm : link
In comment 14560334 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
but if we onlyh played starting QB's, we'd have been 1-15......


You wrote that with a straight face after watching the Bears and Trubisky last night?
You have an optimists viewpoint imo  
Torrag : 9/6/2019 1:04 pm : link
But that's aight. Good luck to us. We'll all be ecstatic if this team wins 12 games and hoists an NFCE title en route to a playoff berth.

I doubt it happens but I hope you're right and I'm wrong.
We lost because we couldnít stop them period  
eli4life : 9/6/2019 2:14 pm : link
There is no what ifs we were who we were. The reasons for those losses were because we werenít good enough not because of some flukey bounces.

Now fast forward to this year could the same thing happen again sure and be a 4 win team again I still think we have improved and be a 6-8 win team. Now I also can see if we get the flukey bounces and remain relatively injury free we could surprise with 9-10 wins. Is it likely probably not but stranger things have happened.

Iím at the point that Iíll judge the success of this team not by wins or losses but how much they improve. If we go from needing a miracle or a colossal fuckup by team x to win to this team is on the cusp of being pretty damned good and not a shocker if we beat some of these teams Iím good.

No matter what colored glasses you wear this team needs one more good off season of adding talent to be contenders for our division along with getting our young players some experience for example our very young secondary. Hopefully jones gets some time this year as well so he can start next year running
RE: RE: Yeah..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 9/6/2019 3:27 pm : link
In comment 14561180 BlueLou'sBack said:
Quote:
In comment 14560334 FatMan in Charlotte said:


Quote:


but if we onlyh played starting QB's, we'd have been 1-15......



You wrote that with a straight face after watching the Bears and Trubisky last night?


I never have a straight face!!

Welp  
JonC : 9/9/2019 8:17 am : link
.
RE: Welp  
Tesla : 9/9/2019 8:44 am : link
In comment 14567339 JonC said:
Quote:
.


Lot's of posters were delusional about this team this year. The predictions of playoffs and 10 win season were laughable. But yeah, it's all just a media conspiracy that this team sucks.
RE: RE: gidie  
Greg from LI : 9/9/2019 9:42 am : link
In comment 14561100 gidiefor said:
Quote:
Hey I remember a Third Rounder, Justin Tuck, who worked out pretty good for us.


Just for the record, Tuck was a third rounder only due to injury concerns. He was considered a first round talent.
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