Another tough year in the AFC Least...

They invested heavily in their offensive line. It will come down to Josh Allen obviously. If he takes a step forward they could be a playoff team.

Almost an automatic 6 wins and just above .500 ball rest of way and it turns into a matter of 3 games to it all. Easy peasy

I was thinking about this the other day...

There have been two "dynasties" during my lifetime that benefited from atrocious divisions. The 49ers during their heyday (occasionally the Rams put up some resistance, but not enough) and the Patriots.

Every year, the Patriots are guaranteed a division title and home field because the division is a train wreck.

But, each year they lose 1 or 2 games to these cheap, poor, losing teams.

that was about it. They are guaranteed at least 4-2 out of that division every year. I've asked many a Patriot fan "How would you like to play the Cowboys and Eagles twice a year"? I usually get no response.

In comment 14562175 jvm52106 said:

Quote:

But, each year they lose 1 or 2 games to these cheap, poor, losing teams.

So, I decided to do some statistical analysis of my statement and I was wrong. Starting with 2010 season forward (including playoff match ups):

vs Jets- 15 wins 4 losses * one playoff matchup
vs Bills- 13 wins 5 losses
vs Dolphins 15 wins 3 losses

combined since 2010 the Pats are 43-12 against the division

Other AFC "Powers"

vs Steelers- 6 wins 2 losses
vs Colts- 8 wins 0 losses
vs Broncos- 7 wins 3 losses
vs Ravens- 5 wins 2 losses
vs Chiefs- 4 wins 2 losses
vs Bengals- 3 wins 1 loss

43 games- 33 wins 10 losses

In comment 14562173 Eric from BBI said:

Quote:

I was thinking about this the other day... There have been two "dynasties" during my lifetime that benefited from atrocious divisions. The 49ers during their heyday (occasionally the Rams put up some resistance, but not enough) and the Patriots. Every year, the Patriots are guaranteed a division title and home field because the division is a train wreck.

Since 2003, the Patriots have roughly a 79% winning % in the AFC East.

Also since 2003, the Patriots are roughly 78.5% winning % outside the AFC East. And that�s another 60+ games baked into that number.

They win anytime, anyplace, anywhere.

In comment 14562160 Jay on the Island said:

Quote:

They invested heavily in their offensive line. It will come down to Josh Allen obviously. If he takes a step forward they could be a playoff team.

+1 on the Bills, think they're a prime candidate to be the out of nowhere playoff team this year. I don't see the Jets taking the leap most do but they're not going to be an auto W this year either.

The jests had a couple good years and that's about it.

Right now I believe Buffalo is going about things the right way but they aren't ready to be a factor this season.

Reg season records only since 2010

Bills- 61 wins 83 losses
Dolphins- 65 wins 79 losses
Jets- 61 wins 83 losses
Patriots- 113 wins 31 losses (42 of those against Div opp)

Giants- 66 wins 78 losses
Skins- 59 wins 85 losses
Cowboys- 78 wins 66 losses
Eagles- 78 wins 66 losses

Giants record against Div opp. since 2010

vs Skins- 11 wins 7 losses
vs Cowboys- 7 wins 11 losses
vs Eagles- 4 wins 14 losses

I hear you, but division games are a different breed. In most divisions, division games are a dogfight and you are fortunate to go 5-3 (now 4-2).

But every year, the Patriots seem to go 7-1 (now 5-1) in their division.

In other words, and I may dead wrong, I doubt the Patriots would have the same division success had they been in the NFC East. Same with the 49ers.

In comment 14562217 Eric from BBI said:

Quote:

In other words, and I may dead wrong, I doubt the Patriots would have the same division success had they been in the NFC East. Same with the 49ers.

Not going to argue about the Pats except to say I think it is overrated as a reason for their success. After all they have to win 2 playoff games to get the to SB and they've done that 9 times.

The Niners I flat out disagree with. The Rams were a regular playoff team in the 1980's and went to the NFC title game twice. The Saints had very good teams in the late 80's into the early 90's. The Falcons sucked for sure but I bet if you did jvm's exercise with the Niners it would be even better than the Pats. Just looking at the top line the 49ers won 13 games or more 7 times from 1981 to 1994. That's a lot of non-division wins!

In comment 14562160 Jay on the Island said:

Quote:

They invested heavily in their offensive line. It will come down to Josh Allen obviously. If he takes a step forward they could be a playoff team.

So the Bills "could be a playoff team" because they invested heavily in their offensive line and have Josh Allen but the Giants are a 5 win team because they they invested heavily in their offensive line and have Eli Manning. Perception.

In comment 14562217 Eric from BBI said:

Quote:

In other words, and I may dead wrong, I doubt the Patriots would have the same division success had they been in the NFC East. Same with the 49ers.

I tell you what would have been interesting. If they NFL kept the Colts in the AFC East. Remember, they re-aligned the entire league in 2002 to four divisions in each conference. and the Colts went to the AFC South.

There would have been some real dogfights between the Pats and Colts - Brady & Manning - fighting for the divisional title...

I think you'd be surprised at the head-to-head W-L record between the 49ers and the rest of the division, even when the Rams (who teased a couple of years) and Saints (same) had good years.

Missing that wild card game is HUGE. Getting home field is huge. (It was even bigger back in the 1980s/early 1990s when Wild Card teams hardly ever advanced... and home field was a dramatic advantage).

New England- 113-31
Pittsburgh- 94-49-1
Green Bay- 89-53-2
Seattle- 89-54-1
N.Orleans- 87-57
Baltimore- 84-60
Kansas City- 84-60
Denver- 82-62
Atlanta- 82-62
Philadelphia- 78-66

The division helps but look at the other AFC top 10 teams. NE is 22-9 vs those teams since 2010. They beat most teams, most of the time.

In comment 14562217 Eric from BBI said:

Quote:

In other words, and I may dead wrong, I doubt the Patriots would have the same division success had they been in the NFC East. Same with the 49ers.

Outside of the NFC east they would've done this anywhere else as well.. Overall NFC east teams are very good as reflected in the # of championships we've won.. but Pats win just as often in the division as they do outside.. even tough they typically play the better teams out of division as they play #1 team during the cycles.. Anyone saying that

Pats success is due to BB and Tom Brady as well as some others.. its not simply because of the AFC east..

Not sure I agree with that.

Would Patriots have same success if they were in same division with Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Titans, Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers, Packers, Vikings, Saints, Panthers, 49ers, Seahawks.

I don't think so.

Many of the championship Patriots seasons were a lot more touch-and-go than fans want to remember. A play here or there in playoff games. Belichick and Brady are amazing, but getting home field and one less playoff game is HUGE.

In comment 14562249 Eric from BBI said:

Quote:

Not sure I agree with that. Would Patriots have same success if they were in same division with Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Titans, Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers, Packers, Vikings, Saints, Panthers, 49ers, Seahawks. I don't think so. Many of the championship Patriots seasons were a lot more touch-and-go than fans want to remember. A play here or there in playoff games. Belichick and Brady are amazing, but getting home field and one less playoff game is HUGE.

Everyone of those divisions had a couple of bad teams every year.. Pats record under BB against the best teams in each division is 24-14.. 65% win percentage.. thats worse than their records against in division teams but still thats an insane record against the best 7 other teams in the league.. At worse they would've lost 1 more superbowl..

The Pats are a great franchise. The AFC East has been a lousy division for the past two decades. These two statements are not in opposition to each other.

Any way you slice it, the Pats with Hoodie and Ugg boy have been historically great, I think, easily and by far, the greatest franchise in NFL history. The competition, the cap, the modern athlete and the sheer improbability of prolonged success in a league that punishes success is unprecedented and fucking remarkable. Fortune favors the prepared and the Pats are year in and year out, the best prepared and best coached and best executing team in the NFL. They�ve been fortunate to also play in a division that lacked a franchise QB and one in which Rex Ryan is probably the most accomplished coach of any in the division for two decades. Again though, much respect and all alms to the 🐐s.

The Jets, Bills, and Dolphins are not the same caliber teams as those I've mentioned during the Pats' "run".

You lose 2-4 games more each year, and your season becomes a vastly different animal.

In comment 14562259 chuckydee9 said:

Quote:

In comment 14562249 Eric from BBI said: Quote: Not sure I agree with that. Would Patriots have same success if they were in same division with Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Titans, Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers, Packers, Vikings, Saints, Panthers, 49ers, Seahawks. I don't think so. Many of the championship Patriots seasons were a lot more touch-and-go than fans want to remember. A play here or there in playoff games. Belichick and Brady are amazing, but getting home field and one less playoff game is HUGE. Everyone of those divisions had a couple of bad teams every year.. Pats record under BB against the best teams in each division is 24-14.. 65% win percentage.. thats worse than their records against in division teams but still thats an insane record against the best 7 other teams in the league.. At worse they would've lost 1 more superbowl..

My mistake 24-14 is 63% but thats still the best in the league by more than a mile.. The other point I was making is that unlike all other good teams who would get 2 easier games many years based on not winning the division the previous year.. Pats always had to face off against presumably better teams.. So their out of division schedule is actually tougher than most teams..

In comment 14562241 Eric from BBI said:

Quote:

I think you'd be surprised at the head-to-head W-L record between the 49ers and the rest of the division, even when the Rams (who teased a couple of years) and Saints (same) had good years. Missing that wild card game is HUGE. Getting home field is huge. (It was even bigger back in the 1980s/early 1990s when Wild Card teams hardly ever advanced... and home field was a dramatic advantage).

ERic 1980- 1994 49ers agains

vs Rams- 22 wins 8 losses (includes 1 playoff matchup)
vs Saints- 22 wins 7 losses
vs Falcons- 19 wins 9 losses and 1 tie (3 losses are 1980 into 81)

49ers owned their division as well

1980 - 1994 overall records:

Rams- 109 wins 123 losses
Saints- 113 wins 119 losses
Falcons- 91 wins 140 losses 1 tie
49ers- 165 wins 66 loses and 1 tie

The Saints had a stretch mid late 80's for better records, the Rams tralied off and the Falcons mid 80's were not good.

run is significant as it goes back much further (2001) and has sustained longer than any other team EVER!

2001- 2018 Patriots far exceed the 1981 through 1994 49ers as the Patriots are still going.

SB Appearances since 1980

New England- 11 times
Broncos- 7 times
49ers- 6 times
Giants- 5 times

And taking a high level player personnel exec and a DC from them I have no idea?

can consistently start the season with a 6 - 0 or 5 -1 record you are almost guaranteed a playoff spot. Now, play .500 the rest of the way and your team has a chance at the very least a home game. Play a little better than .500 you get a 1st round bye and a home game. So your path to the SB is a little easier than most teams.

They would do this to any division.

In comment 14562396 Default said:

Quote:

They would do this to any division.

The Dolphins, Bills, and Jets are not good. And they haven't been good for years.

Just pencil them in for 12-4/13-3 & a bye. EVERY. F'ING. YEAR.

In comment 14562400 Eric from BBI said:

Quote:

In comment 14562396 Default said: Quote: They would do this to any division. The Dolphins, Bills, and Jets are not good. And they haven't been good for years.

I think you swap any of those three teams with any of the four teams in the AFC South the record of the former AFC East team would be much better.

Same thing with the NFC East.

He�s a huge Patriots fan. Belichick will play younger players through September and October who at the start of the season might not be as good as some of the veterans. At that point, a lot of the younger players have improved and have become better then the veteran. It�s like an extended training camp but they get away with it in part because the division is so weak. I think it also helps because they�re able to unload higher priced and play with cheaper players

In comment 14562173 Eric from BBI said:

Quote:

I was thinking about this the other day... There have been two "dynasties" during my lifetime that benefited from atrocious divisions. The 49ers during their heyday (occasionally the Rams put up some resistance, but not enough) and the Patriots. Every year, the Patriots are guaranteed a division title and home field because the division is a train wreck.

Oh, man, that used to piss me off about the 49ers. Every year it was one dogfight after another for us in our division, while the 49ers went from cakewalk to cakewalk. Bastards.

I'm not doing the research, but I imagine you could include the Cowboys of the early-to-mid 1990's as a third dynasty.

In comment 14562160 Jay on the Island said:

Quote:

They invested heavily in their offensive line. It will come down to Josh Allen obviously. If he takes a step forward they could be a playoff team.

I think Josh Allen is going to surprise a lot of people. I thought he was potentially the best QB in 2018 class. He's big, fast, mobile, has a quick release and a rocket for an arm. Lots of observers erroneously think he's another Jeff George (erratic cannon). I think Allen's accuracy is more than acceptable even now and will improve as he learns how to play quarterback at the NFL level. Sunday's game pitting Allen and Darnold is must see television. I think eventually Allen surpasses Darnold.

In comment 14562200 bw in dc said:

Quote:

In comment 14562173 Eric from BBI said: Quote: I was thinking about this the other day... There have been two "dynasties" during my lifetime that benefited from atrocious divisions. The 49ers during their heyday (occasionally the Rams put up some resistance, but not enough) and the Patriots. Every year, the Patriots are guaranteed a division title and home field because the division is a train wreck. Since 2003, the Patriots have roughly a 79% winning % in the AFC East. Also since 2003, the Patriots are roughly 78.5% winning % outside the AFC East. And that�s another 60+ games baked into that number. They win anytime, anyplace, anywhere.

I used to think NE got some advantage from the AFC East, but they beat everyone equally

but throughout the Patriots dynasty the NFC East has not been worse than the AFC East.

One thing people ignore or don't realize is playing the Patriots twice a year every year contributes to making the teams in that division worse it's not just the Patriots feast on the division teams, they contribute to it.

The other thing is look at the Patriots record outside their division and outside the conference.

the Patriots are the best team in history and I hate it and I hate them, I'm not "defending" them.

And I used to argue against it with comments like this OP, but in the end they have simply proved it doesn't matter.

And if you want proof just check the sagarin rankings (from when they were a thing) during most of the Patriots dynasty and look at things like SOS and division rankings.

In comment 14562917 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

but throughout the Patriots dynasty the NFC East has not been worse than the AFC East. One thing people ignore or don't realize is playing the Patriots twice a year every year contributes to making the teams in that division worse it's not just the Patriots feast on the division teams, they contribute to it. The other thing is look at the Patriots record outside their division and outside the conference. the Patriots are the best team in history and I hate it and I hate them, I'm not "defending" them. And I used to argue against it with comments like this OP, but in the end they have simply proved it doesn't matter. And if you want proof just check the sagarin rankings (from when they were a thing) during most of the Patriots dynasty and look at things like SOS and division rankings.

Sorry, I meant the AFC East has not been worse than the NFC East. In fact the opposite. The NFC East as a division, has been worse.

In comment 14562245 chuckydee9 said:

Quote:

In comment 14562217 Eric from BBI said: Quote: In other words, and I may dead wrong, I doubt the Patriots would have the same division success had they been in the NFC East. Same with the 49ers. Outside of the NFC east they would've done this anywhere else as well.. Overall NFC east teams are very good as reflected in the # of championships we've won.. but Pats win just as often in the division as they do outside.. even tough they typically play the better teams out of division as they play #1 team during the cycles.. Anyone saying that Pats success is due to BB and Tom Brady as well as some others.. its not simply because of the AFC east..

Other teams in their division get beat up..not the as easy. Pats at worst lose 2 games. Never a dog fight for them. In essence, a cakewalk for them. Their challenge is rest of league games. Again, easy peasy for them til div becomes formable

sweeping your division then you only need to go 500 on your other games and you are in the playoffs

that said the easy schedule thing is a bit of misnomer NE has easy schedule because they don't play NE!

In comment 14563090 giantfan2000 said:

Quote:

sweeping your division then you only need to go 500 on your other games and you are in the playoffs that said the easy schedule thing is a bit of misnomer NE has easy schedule because they don't play NE!

What are you talking about? their win % in division is the same (within 1-2%) as their win % out of division...

I think Fitzmagic will win them a game or two, but they could lose every game. They suck.