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NFT: Morning After Yankees Thread

section125 : 9/10/2019 8:20 am
Just how lovely was it to not only end the Red Sox division title hopes in Boston, on a shutout, with a silenced deflated crowd, where Babe Romine has the game winning HR to the opposite field against their best starter..

A little more postseason talk after Tauchman's season injury. We sort of started one on the game thread with dp making up a rotation for the playoff. Keep those fingers crossed on Severino, Betances with Montgomery on the periphery. They will be pitching the next couple days. I just do not see Montgomery helping this season unless CC is done and it appears Boone very much wants CC on the roster.

Let's focus on the 5 game division series. I think they go with 12 pitchers and 13 fielders in the 5 game series.

SPs(3)
Paxton
Tanaka
Severino

RPs(9)
Chapman, Betances, Ottavino. Britton, Kahnle, Green, German, CC, Cessa
(Gearinn is looking good - some one to keep an eye on)

Catchers:(2)
Sanchez
Romine

OF:(4)
Judge, Gardner, Stanton, Maybin
(If Boone's report on Stanton is good(why would it not be) he is making good progress in Tampa and will be up next week)


IF:(7)
DJLM, Torres, Didi, Urshela, EE, Voit, Wade (he is also a back up OF)

In my mind, Gardner appears to be tired at the plate. He had a slight slump mid August, came out of it, but looks to be having trouble again. His fielding is impeccable. He needs a break - maybe 2 or three days soon. This is where the Tauchman injury is another concern. Maybin will need to play CF and he is nowhere near Gardy or Tauchman in the field.
Can Wade play CF? He should have a strong arm as a SS.





I think that roster is pretty spot on  
Eman11 : 9/10/2019 8:42 am : link
The only thing I see differently is German will get a well deserved start. He might be used at some point coming out of the pen similar to what the Red Sox did last year but he definitely gets a start in the Division series. Most likely at home.

If Sevy is healthy and good to go I see him adding to the rotation and them going with four starters, not him eliminating German from a start and only going with three.
Where  
mdthedream : 9/10/2019 8:48 am : link
is Happ on that list?
Doubt CC Makes It...  
Jim in Tampa : 9/10/2019 9:02 am : link
Over Happ.
RE: Where  
Eman11 : 9/10/2019 9:02 am : link
In comment 14569838 mdthedream said:
Quote:
is Happ on that list?


Yeah that's a good point. If he continues to pitch the way he has lately,he'll be on the roster. I'm not sure he'll get a start but I definitely think he'll get a spot.
yeah German is most definitely starting a game  
Stu11 : 9/10/2019 9:12 am : link
probably game 2 because he pitches so well at home. Its looking like a good chance Paxton with the way he is pitching right now goes game 1 with Tanaka game 3 and maybe Sevi opener type situation in game 4. Interesting that Wed. they are having German/CC piggy back each other. Wonder if they are trying it out to see if it fits. Personally I'm not a big fan of crow-barring CC in there seeing as his knee can go at any minute. Also I see them keeping Cortez jr. over Cessa. They love his versatility and he's a great long man.
2nd time I left Happ off  
section125 : 9/10/2019 9:22 am : link
a postseason roster....wonder why?

Yeah, I suppose Happ over CC or Cessa makes more sense. I think Boone's vision is blocked wanting CC on the roster. Cold hard fact, CC is marginal, at best. At this point I trust him less than Cessa, except CC won't have stage fright....

FWIW, Stanton coming back healthy is the difference between panic in the OF vs a solid OF roster because of Tauchman's injury.
Last I saw Gearrin, he was still doing the toe tap in his windup  
AJ23 : 9/10/2019 9:25 am : link
If the opposing manager can call it out and as a balk, isn't that a risk every time we trot him out there?
RE: Last I saw Gearrin, he was still doing the toe tap in his windup  
section125 : 9/10/2019 9:27 am : link
In comment 14569913 AJ23 said:
Quote:
If the opposing manager can call it out and as a balk, isn't that a risk every time we trot him out there?


Those umps in Oakland effed up. The league had already said his delivery was legal and reiterated last week(When they also said the ump in the Dodger series was wrong to call timeout in the middle of a play.)
I know it is crazy  
averagejoe : 9/10/2019 9:27 am : link
but I would like to see Ford on post season roster. I think we need a lefty bat for Greinke,Cole, and Verlander. Ford has a good eye and good power and always has good AB's. Voit has struggled and I think Ford is a better match up vs Houston. Won't happen but I think Ford could help us more than Voit.
stuff changes quickly  
bigbluehoya : 9/10/2019 9:28 am : link
not hard to envision a scenario where Frazier is a realistic/desirable option in the outfield for the postseason.
RE: I know it is crazy  
Eman11 : 9/10/2019 9:39 am : link
In comment 14569919 averagejoe said:
Quote:
but I would like to see Ford on post season roster. I think we need a lefty bat for Greinke,Cole, and Verlander. Ford has a good eye and good power and always has good AB's. Voit has struggled and I think Ford is a better match up vs Houston. Won't happen but I think Ford could help us more than Voit.


I don't think that's crazy at all. Ford is a professional hitter who really seems to know what he's doing up there and has great at bats. He's come through plenty for them and I could see them wanting his lefty bat on the roster.
RE: I know it is crazy  
section125 : 9/10/2019 9:40 am : link
In comment 14569919 averagejoe said:
Quote:
but I would like to see Ford on post season roster. I think we need a lefty bat for Greinke,Cole, and Verlander. Ford has a good eye and good power and always has good AB's. Voit has struggled and I think Ford is a better match up vs Houston. Won't happen but I think Ford could help us more than Voit.


Ford has done well and is a viable option if Voit is injured. But Voit is a high OBP player with considerable pop himself and playoff experience at the MLB level. I have no doubt that Voit is auditioning a little bit, but Ford only goes if the hernia recurs. Not sure the RH/LH matchups mean anything anymore with advanced metrics...Voit does have considerable problems with high FBs, that is his hole and that is Verlander's bread and butter. But Torres and Sanchez have the same hole(I suspect most hitters do).

IMHO
RE: stuff changes quickly  
Greg from LI : 9/10/2019 9:51 am : link
In comment 14569921 bigbluehoya said:
Quote:
not hard to envision a scenario where Frazier is a realistic/desirable option in the outfield for the postseason.


Well, with no Hicks, if Stanton can't go and Tauchman isn't ready, they pretty much have to have Frazier as the 4th OF behind Judge, Gardner, and Maybin. There are no other options. They aren't playing Tyler Wade over him.
RE: RE: stuff changes quickly  
bigbluehoya : 9/10/2019 9:55 am : link
In comment 14569950 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
In comment 14569921 bigbluehoya said:


Quote:


not hard to envision a scenario where Frazier is a realistic/desirable option in the outfield for the postseason.



Well, with no Hicks, if Stanton can't go and Tauchman isn't ready, they pretty much have to have Frazier as the 4th OF behind Judge, Gardner, and Maybin. There are no other options. They aren't playing Tyler Wade over him.


yup. There was no hidden editorial from me there, just amazing how things can change in 2 weeks.

I'm hardly Frazier's biggest fan, but I'd happily see him get the postseason roster spot over a guy like Wade.
Funny...  
BC Eagles94 : 9/10/2019 9:59 am : link
I said there was no point in doing this exercise last week. As so much can happen between now and postseason. And already we have Tauchman out for the year!! Futile exercise! But it is fun I guess. haha.

Agree with your postseason roster, with one change. Like I said last week too...Happ should be on your roster. He is a lefty, has bullpen experience in his career, and now has even had a few consecutive great starts. I just can't see what CC brings over Happ, other than leadership. And CC can do that while on the bench, without being on postseason roster.
Some thoughts:  
Bill2 : 9/10/2019 9:59 am : link
1) How much rest people get may depend on Houston losing a game or two. Getting Home field is an advantage given where the starters did well this season and our oppo focused rightly line up.

2) I think the Stanton contract ( the portion the Yankees pay) and performance will work out fine in the long run. But I went back and looked at articles about the "book" for pitching to him, Sanchez, Judge, etc.

He may well be invaluable contributor during the long long season when he gets hot and some of our others are not hitting well. But he is statistically easier for pitchers with good control to handle than some of our other players. That matters in a playoff series. He also does well with repetition. He may be a guy ( and ditto Severino and Betances) that is added after the first series or not at all.

Getting through 164 games with a top record is going to be valuable for several years as the Astros and Dodgers much less the Braves are not going to get worse or have less depth next year.

Regardless of Division, we are in a race for MLB best record during this era of Yankee baseball. So Stanton will be a contributor. But between the defense and the hot and cold zones in his swing he may not be as good a playoff series contributor when the opponent has good pitching.

Oddly, the same kind of reviews of player strengths and weaknesses gives kudos to Judge who has changed his approach to offset the book on him in 2017 and then changed it again for 2019 and then again with the oblique injury. This guy is a very very good all around player. One of the best in baseball
With that said...  
BC Eagles94 : 9/10/2019 10:01 am : link
you also need a 4th starter. So I would slide Happ or German from bullpen into starters. A couple weeks ago I would have laughed at Happ over German. But there is a chance. If Happ keeps pitching like this, who do you trust more in a playoff game? Even with all his wins, I don't have much trust in German in a big playoff game. Sounds crazy, but next few weeks will sort it out.
RE: RE: RE: stuff changes quickly  
section125 : 9/10/2019 10:04 am : link
In comment 14569959 bigbluehoya said:
Quote:
In comment 14569950 Greg from LI said:


Quote:


In comment 14569921 bigbluehoya said:


Quote:


not hard to envision a scenario where Frazier is a realistic/desirable option in the outfield for the postseason.



Well, with no Hicks, if Stanton can't go and Tauchman isn't ready, they pretty much have to have Frazier as the 4th OF behind Judge, Gardner, and Maybin. There are no other options. They aren't playing Tyler Wade over him.



yup. There was no hidden editorial from me there, just amazing how things can change in 2 weeks.

I'm hardly Frazier's biggest fan, but I'd happily see him get the postseason roster spot over a guy like Wade.


Clint is the far superior offensive player. He can also run, one of the faster players on the team.
Wade can play IF or OF and is far superior defensively and really rivals Gardy in pure speed.

I think this a closer toss up than you would think. I'm hoping that Clint can get some playing time and they can sit Gardy a few days. If he could just play MLB average OF, it would be a no brainer and I might take him over Maybin.
RE: yeah German is most definitely starting a game  
BC Eagles94 : 9/10/2019 10:07 am : link
In comment 14569893 Stu11 said:
Quote:
probably game 2 because he pitches so well at home. Its looking like a good chance Paxton with the way he is pitching right now goes game 1 with Tanaka game 3 and maybe Sevi opener type situation in game 4. Interesting that Wed. they are having German/CC piggy back each other. Wonder if they are trying it out to see if it fits. Personally I'm not a big fan of crow-barring CC in there seeing as his knee can go at any minute. Also I see them keeping Cortez jr. over Cessa. They love his versatility and he's a great long man.


Absolutely no way Cortes would make the postseason roster over Cessa right now. Of course a lot could change in the next 3 weeks. But they do the same thing...long men out of bullpen. But Cessa has been way better. He has a sub-4.00 ERA and Cortes an ERA over 5.00! Not even a debate. And Cessa is the WAY hotter pitcher. In fact in the 2nd half of the season Cortes' ERA is doubles Cessa's...Cessa has 2.87 while Cortes has 5.53.
RE: With that said...  
Eman11 : 9/10/2019 10:10 am : link
In comment 14569973 BC Eagles94 said:
Quote:
you also need a 4th starter. So I would slide Happ or German from bullpen into starters. A couple weeks ago I would have laughed at Happ over German. But there is a chance. If Happ keeps pitching like this, who do you trust more in a playoff game? Even with all his wins, I don't have much trust in German in a big playoff game. Sounds crazy, but next few weeks will sort it out.


I trusted Happ last year and he fell flat on his face in the playoffs. I know he's pitched very well lately and is making a case for himself but it's not like he can add that to a stellar post season start last year and he gets the nod by seniority or a "he's proven in postseason" type of thing. If anything he's shown he couldn't get it done.

German has great stuff and has done it all year and IMO has earned a start by what he's done for the whole season. Let's see what he does with a start he's earned and deserves.
RE: With that said...  
section125 : 9/10/2019 10:10 am : link
In comment 14569973 BC Eagles94 said:
Quote:
you also need a 4th starter. So I would slide Happ or German from bullpen into starters. A couple weeks ago I would have laughed at Happ over German. But there is a chance. If Happ keeps pitching like this, who do you trust more in a playoff game? Even with all his wins, I don't have much trust in German in a big playoff game. Sounds crazy, but next few weeks will sort it out.


My premise on this thread was more about the 5 game ALDS where you do not need a 4th starter. But long run maybe they do need the 4th starter so that at the start of the ALCS they are not without the #1 and #2 starters.
Of course, by then I expect Severino(knock on wood) will be stretched to well over 80 pitches.
RE: RE: With that said...  
section125 : 9/10/2019 10:14 am : link
In comment 14569992 Eman11 said:
Quote:
.....
German has great stuff and has done it all year and IMO has earned a start by what he's done for the whole season. Let's see what he does with a start he's earned and deserves.


They plan on starting CC with German coming from the pen in relief this week. Keep an eye on this. This could be "the opener" that Boone said he would consider. I like the idea of CC's soft toss followed by German's hard stuff..of course that could also be a double explosion in the face.
I'm OK with a German start.....provided it's at home  
Greg from LI : 9/10/2019 10:17 am : link
Major, major home/road splits for him - 2.35 ERA, .995 WHIP at home and 5.73, 1.301 on the road.

Honestly, after his tremendous April, German's been mediocre for the most part.
I don't know when Stanton is coming back, but Frazier will have to  
shockeyisthebest8056 : 9/10/2019 10:20 am : link
play some until then. If he rakes and is okay in the OF, he could possibly get onto the postseason roster. The Tauchman injury really hurts because he was also their backup CF.
RE: I'm OK with a German start.....provided it's at home  
section125 : 9/10/2019 10:21 am : link
In comment 14570009 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
Major, major home/road splits for him - 2.35 ERA, .995 WHIP at home and 5.73, 1.301 on the road.

Honestly, after his tremendous April, German's been mediocre for the most part.


Major split discrepancy. Yes not as dominant after the hip flexor. With his slight build and lack of previous innings, he may very well be running out of gas. His FB velo seems a bit down. His place maybe BP ALDS and a home start in the ALCS depending on how the ALDS unfolds.
I didn't realize the season series was 14-5  
Greg from LI : 9/10/2019 10:23 am : link
Kind of funny now to look back at the sheer panic some had after the 3 straight losses in Fenway back in July
RE: I don't know when Stanton is coming back, but Frazier will have to  
section125 : 9/10/2019 10:23 am : link
In comment 14570011 shockeyisthebest8056 said:
Quote:
play some until then. If he rakes and is okay in the OF, he could possibly get onto the postseason roster. The Tauchman injury really hurts because he was also their backup CF.


Maybin is likely the backup CF, but for a game or so Judge could be used there. Hard to believe an afterthought pickup AAA player could mean so much.
If German would clean up the homers, that would help  
Greg from LI : 9/10/2019 10:28 am : link
He's allowed at least one homer in his last ten starts dating back to July 12. In those ten starts, he's allowed 55 hits and 17 of them have been homers.
RE: If German would clean up the homers, that would help  
section125 : 9/10/2019 10:32 am : link
In comment 14570023 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
He's allowed at least one homer in his last ten starts dating back to July 12. In those ten starts, he's allowed 55 hits and 17 of them have been homers.


Not too many were cheapies either. He seems to cluster them also. Lack of focus causing lack of control???

FWIW, the analytics folks will probably have a reason and possible solution for next season for him to work on.
Right now  
PaulN : 9/10/2019 10:44 am : link
I would go Paxton, Tanaka, and Haap. After that we need to see how German looks, and how Severino looks. German has already exceeded the most innings he has pitched and Haap is an experienced pitcher finally putting it all together, it took long enough, but he is pitching great now. We are paying Haap to be a game three starter and that is what he should be. German is wearing down and needs to be given a break, most innings against the best competition has taken its toll. Between him, Severino and CC, you should have game 4 covered. Game 1 is Paxton.
.  
Kyle in NY : 9/10/2019 10:52 am : link
With Paxton throwing this way heading into the postseason he's got to be the game 1 and 5 starter. I like lining up German to start game 2 at home. Tanaka game 3 and Severino game 4 or as a backup out of the bullpen.

I'm ok with Happ on the roster, but I'm still not ready to give him a start. But we'll see how the season wraps up.
Man, I knew Paxton had been pitching well  
Greg from LI : 9/10/2019 11:54 am : link
but 314 adds it all up and it will wow you. Eight starts, 8-0, 49 IP, 2.57, 29 H, 58 K.
Happ has pitched better lately, and seems to have figured something  
mfsd : 9/10/2019 1:20 pm : link
out mechanically. I know we dont trust him, as weve seen a lot of ugly this season, but hes likely getting a playoff start.

I suspect German is just tired as hes passing all limits of IP hes thrown before.

I suspect playoff rotation is:

Paxton
Tanaka
Sevy (with German and Green ready as part of a quasi-bullpen game)
Happ
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