Football Survivor Thread Week 2

for the first time in many years. This week I have Balt in one and Hou in my other entry. CAr is not a bad pick but Cam hasn't played well and it is a division game so thinking i need to see more before I lean on them.

I'm saving NE for when I things get tough.

I’d be shocked if NE loses but they always seem to struggle against Miami. Baltimore scares me and I don’t trust Houston.

Week 1 we did Eagles 2x, Seahawks, Ravens

Week 2 we have soft-circled Pats 2x, Chiefs, Texans

I'd prefer to only go 1x on Pats due to the tremendous future value, but I am being outvoted.

I really like KC. Oakland won't slow them down (who can?) and I don't view Oakland as a team that can score the 40+ it's going to take to win that one. KC also has big future value in any given week, but a tougher division and schedule overall.

I think Steelers are also a nice play this week.

Early in the year I prefer home favorites.

I think that I would go with Baltimore.
Baltimore is not as good as they looked last week,but, Arizona on the road against a good defense should have a difficult time.

In comment 14571546 bigbluehoya said:

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Week 1 we did Eagles 2x, Seahawks, Ravens Week 2 we have soft-circled Pats 2x, Chiefs, Texans I'd prefer to only go 1x on Pats due to the tremendous future value, but I am being outvoted. I really like KC. Oakland won't slow them down (who can?) and I don't view Oakland as a team that can score the 40+ it's going to take to win that one. KC also has big future value in any given week, but a tougher division and schedule overall. I think Steelers are also a nice play this week.

You’re probably right. But for week 2 I’m trying to avoid a road team and division rival.

I believe in the Jimmy Valavano philosophy- survive and advance. I'll worry about later in the season if I get there. I always take the best team/match-up available.

But I've gotten myself into trouble in the past when I use too many broad-brush heuristics and dismiss a good chunk of the card out of hand.

Un-sharp as I am, I try to just use the spreads as a guide, and intersect that with my thoughts on current market over-valuations/under-valuations and my perceptions of future value based on schedule.

For instance, I think going against Oakland will give many people pause this week given the Monday night performance. When in reality, I think Oakland is quite a bad team that beat another pretty bad team. (I've got them both as 5-6 win teams). Plus, Reid >>>> Chucky, division game or not.

So I like camping out on KC in week 2 as a big favorite that hopefully doesn't attract too many of the other entries. The rest of their schedule is tricky enough that I think they'll knock a bunch of entries out of this pool at some point. Hopefully just not this week.

As opposed to a team like the Ravens. It would be hard to argue that they are anything but over-valued at the moment, good as they may ultimately be. A team like Arizona is really an unknown. With Murray at QB, they're likely to have some ugly lows but also some fun games on the upside.

In comment 14571587 Stu11 said:

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I believe in the Jimmy Valavano philosophy- survive and advance. I'll worry about later in the season if I get there. I always take the best team/match-up available.

Also hard to argue with this, but I usually only take this approach in a pool with a smaller number of entries where patience and safety will triumph over people out-foxing themselves week in and week out.

In a pool with ~10k entries, I've found it's critical to have a good sense of where the value lies in later weeks, even if it's ever-changing.

in a big pool. Lost 1 entry b/c I took the Lions. Won with the Ravens and Chargers.

Im debating between the Pats, Panthers and Titans

Small office, 48 entries. Lost eight already, but participants have the opportunity to buy back in if knocked out in first four weeks, at double the entry fee.

This is a tough week- only layup is New England. Miami is not going to win a game this year. The front office already gave up and the players did as well.

Also Eagles over Redskins. But certainly a lot of games that can go either way.

Also, won the pools the last 2 seasons. I am going with Balt and Chargers this week

I'm leaning towards Gints but I never usually pick my team.

Not saving teams for future weeks cause In the past that’s burned me. Take the pats and move on

In comment 14572160 tbonfig said:

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I'm leaning towards Gints but I never usually pick my team.

I like the Bengals a lot.

Also like to a lesser extent:

Chargers
Vikings
Bears
Steelers

This week I am going with Baltimore. New England is the obvious safe choice, but I am holding onto them.

In comment 14572193 bigbluehoya said:

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In comment 14572160 tbonfig said: Quote: I'm leaning towards Gints but I never usually pick my team. I like the Bengals a lot. Also like to a lesser extent: Chargers Vikings Bears Steelers

I can't pick the Bengals. They have dropped me almost every year when I pick for or against them. Chargers are not a bad pick. Lions prob suck this year again, right? I wouldn't pick the Steelers until I see they can put up more than 3 points, same with the Bears (although I'm sure both teams will turn it around).

Thoughts on Giants? You like the Chargers better than the Giants?

In comment 14572382 tbonfig said:

Quote:

In comment 14572193 bigbluehoya said: Quote: In comment 14572160 tbonfig said: Quote: I'm leaning towards Gints but I never usually pick my team. I like the Bengals a lot. Also like to a lesser extent: Chargers Vikings Bears Steelers I can't pick the Bengals. They have dropped me almost every year when I pick for or against them. Chargers are not a bad pick. Lions prob suck this year again, right? I wouldn't pick the Steelers until I see they can put up more than 3 points, same with the Bears (although I'm sure both teams will turn it around). Thoughts on Giants? You like the Chargers better than the Giants?

Nothing about the Giants makes me feel safe. I said in another thread on Sunday or Monday that I plan to have $ on NYG, and maybe I will, but the Bills seem to be the sharp side according to the vegas-related podcasts and etc that I'm listening to. Bottom line is that this Giants team has been allergic to winning for a few years now, and with less than a FG I just can't get excited about backing them.

The later in the week it gets, the more lukewarm I am about the Chargers. It's shaping up to be a classic square side on the road with a questionable OL.

I think it's silly to dismiss the Steelers out of hand based on a SNF Week 1 performance in Foxboro. NE's defense this year is going to be significantly better than years past. Seattle got beat up pretty bad by Andy Dalton - Cincy should have won that game going away.

There's no free lunch against the spread. If you're insistent on backing a team that has already shown you what you want to see, KC always has a good chance to blow the doors off of someone.

Pure trends and history would say you should hold your nose and take Miami.

Bears bouncing back and less than a FG seems to have ticket count as well as $ backing it right now. Sharps and squares aligned for the moment.

In comment 14572475 bigbluehoya said:

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In comment 14572382 tbonfig said: Quote: In comment 14572193 bigbluehoya said: Quote: In comment 14572160 tbonfig said: Quote: I'm leaning towards Gints but I never usually pick my team. I like the Bengals a lot. Also like to a lesser extent: Chargers Vikings Bears Steelers I can't pick the Bengals. They have dropped me almost every year when I pick for or against them. Chargers are not a bad pick. Lions prob suck this year again, right? I wouldn't pick the Steelers until I see they can put up more than 3 points, same with the Bears (although I'm sure both teams will turn it around). Thoughts on Giants? You like the Chargers better than the Giants? Nothing about the Giants makes me feel safe. I said in another thread on Sunday or Monday that I plan to have $ on NYG, and maybe I will, but the Bills seem to be the sharp side according to the vegas-related podcasts and etc that I'm listening to. Bottom line is that this Giants team has been allergic to winning for a few years now, and with less than a FG I just can't get excited about backing them. The later in the week it gets, the more lukewarm I am about the Chargers. It's shaping up to be a classic square side on the road with a questionable OL. I think it's silly to dismiss the Steelers out of hand based on a SNF Week 1 performance in Foxboro. NE's defense this year is going to be significantly better than years past. Seattle got beat up pretty bad by Andy Dalton - Cincy should have won that game going away. There's no free lunch against the spread. If you're insistent on backing a team that has already shown you what you want to see, KC always has a good chance to blow the doors off of someone. Pure trends and history would say you should hold your nose and take Miami. Bears bouncing back and less than a FG seems to have ticket count as well as $ backing it right now. Sharps and squares aligned for the moment.

I have no idea regarding half the stuff you wrote with sharps and squares but it seems like you know your stuff. Thanks hoya!

Browns now a great pick?

In comment 14572160 tbonfig said:

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I'm leaning towards Gints but I never usually pick my team.

I'd go Cleveland now.