The books were ready for this yesterday clearly. Tells you all you really need to know. Can't remember the last time a rookie QB came in and the line didn't drop.
And this is a good sign, its part where Eli is at, but I think it says
If it does it would seem to suggest that all those posters who thought starting Jones from game 1 meant that the Giants were giving up on the season, were wrong.
Jones is a rookie and he'll probably play like one before he hopefully gets better. But Eli at 38 wasn't playing well, so it's not exactly a big step back for the team...and it could even give them a much-needed spark.
Vegas knows this defense couldn't stop a faucet drip.
This +1. The offense will likely look the same, I don't think people get this point. The issue will remain the defense and its ability to play football
At least Jones gives us a chance to backdoor cover.
If it does it would seem to suggest that all those posters who thought starting Jones from game 1 meant that the Giants were giving up on the season, were wrong.
Jones is a rookie and he'll probably play like one before he hopefully gets better. But Eli at 38 wasn't playing well, so it's not exactly a big step back for the team...and it could even give them a much-needed spark.
To the extent that the books apply any sort of implied football strategy to the betting line (which is to say, not very much even though many fans think it's some sort of prediction of the game's outcome), there may be a school of thought that starting a rookie QB may actually encourage Shurmur to use Barkley more aggressively, which would be a net positive for the team even if Eli is still better than Jones in this moment.
IMO, Eli wasn't better than Jones by enough to justify having the offense flow through him instead of Barkley, and that's primarily because Barkley is just that good (or should be, independent of usage). If Shurmur's version of kid gloves for Jones's first start includes a heavy dose of Barkley (as one would imagine it should), that's a huge improvement.
key number this morning. maybe it gets to 7, but the books would take a real bath risk-wise if they ever bumped Tampa as more than a 7 point favorite over anybody.
opened at 4 and is now at 6.5. I'm not sure how that's the same, but maybe it's new math?
I saw it open at +6 everywhere, but maybe I missed some of the early lines. In any case, I think it had moved to +6.5 yesterday, so it's possible that it was either early money in anticipation of the switch, or that the early money was reflective of the Giants being overpriced regardless of the QB.
The fact that it's still on the board at all is interesting - if the books sensed that it would cause a dramatic shift in the action, it would be off the board at least temporarily.
Each team's QB's effect on betting line. Eli was basically no difference vs backup. Not like we're losing A.A. Ron Rod-gers.
When that came out last week, it was all I needed to know that the "mythical" Eli folks remember is not the same as what he is now. The fact line last night was -6.5 to -7 and hasn't moved today should tell us something.
The Jets were +17.5 against the Patriots last night. Their new QB gets hurt and the 3rd string guy comes in. Their line has shot up 4 points to +21.5 this morning.
Now we got people making up opening betting lines, it opened up 6.5
at 4 in Vegas. I don't know when the opening was. Aces might be right that it opened before the Bills game was played, but I know for a fact it was listed as opening at 4. I am unsure as to when.
key number this morning. maybe it gets to 7, but the books would take a real bath risk-wise if they ever bumped Tampa as more than a 7 point favorite over anybody.
Bets are flowing in on the Giants, it is kind of concerning it hasn't moved to 7, means they don't think the Giants can cover.
at 4 in Vegas. I don't know when the opening was. Aces might be right that it opened before the Bills game was played, but I know for a fact it was listed as opening at 4. I am unsure as to when.
That is a look ahead line, not an opening line.
RE: Now we got people making up opening betting lines, it opened up 6.5
Not every book offers them. That line was quickly bet up during and after the Bills game and it was 6.5 by the time most books were offering action early Sunday evening.
key number this morning. maybe it gets to 7, but the books would take a real bath risk-wise if they ever bumped Tampa as more than a 7 point favorite over anybody.
Bets are flowing in on the Giants, it is kind of concerning it hasn't moved to 7, means they don't think the Giants can cover.
I suspect that there is money coming in on Tampa, but they know the sharps will pound if it gets to 7 or 7.5. It's about the key numbers.
The Giants got little more than replacement level play from the QB position in weeks 1-2. They're replacing him with the #6 overall pick. Not sure why anyone would expect a significant line move anyhow.
key number this morning. maybe it gets to 7, but the books would take a real bath risk-wise if they ever bumped Tampa as more than a 7 point favorite over anybody.
Bets are flowing in on the Giants, it is kind of concerning it hasn't moved to 7, means they don't think the Giants can cover.
This shit again? The books are not in it to win bets. They're in it to balance the action and collect the vig.
Also, if "bets are flowing in on the Giants" the line would move down, not up.
The line isn't moving because the books are happy they taking Giants
bets right now. They aren't always looking to balance the books. That is wrong. Vegas takes sides as well and they are backing the Bucs to cover 6.5 They'll be reticent to move that line to 7.
Dorgan, sorry I looked at a few books and they all opened at 6. But I could do without the telling me to go fuck myself. Take a chill pill.
They'll move the line if the exposure becomes too great,
are 2-1 on Giants. Seems like they are happy keeping it right below the key. And honestly if I were capping the game I'd probably put the Bucs at 7 right now.
Dorgan, looking around it looks like Westgate is the only one that
are 2-1 on Giants. Seems like they are happy keeping it right below the key. And honestly if I were capping the game I'd probably put the Bucs at 7 right now.
Again, if the money was 2-1 on the Giants, the spread would be coming down, not going up. So if they're resisting moving the line, it's not because they're backing the Bucs (because if that were the case, they'd be happy to back the Bucs on a lower line, too).
If they're artificially keeping the line up, it's because they're trying to get even more money in on the Giants without having to move across a key number (and/or give up the hook). If the line did indeed already move from +4 in the earliest action, then there's a ton of ballast for the Bucs already that Vegas is trying to cover.
There's no other logic to justify leaving the game on the board and then also leaving the line inflated if 2/3 bets are coming in on the underdog. Leaving it up and leaving it where it is means that they are fully inviting action on the Giants. Either because they're trying to balance the action or because they expect the game to get circled immediately if they move the line either way (either downwards to allow sharps to circle the -6 or upward to circle the +7).
I meant coming down. There are limits on early lines and
overall the money is still 2-1 on the Giants. They aren't trying to balance this game. If anything some books are looking to go 7 inviting even more action which is crazy. Pretty much tells you what they think our chances are.
dabbling.
Any recommended sites to use, I don't know how to even get started?
If you are indeed located in ATL, I probably won't be of much help.
I live in NJ where it's all above-board these days. I've had a great experience with FanDuel Sportsbook and just this week added Borgata Sports to be able to shop lines a little bit.
dabbling.
Any recommended sites to use, I don't know how to even get started?
Go look at SBR review and find the best offshore book for your needs. I used a 5dimes, bookmaker, and bovada (for the dog lines). The larger operations are on the up and up, they rake in the money and it isn't worth the bad press to stiff you. You can use credit cards for some, but bitcoin is your best bet, especially because the books love it and offer huge bonuses for bitcoin which takes care of some of the exchange rate and transaction cost issues.
Jones is a rookie and he'll probably play like one before he hopefully gets better. But Eli at 38 wasn't playing well, so it's not exactly a big step back for the team...and it could even give them a much-needed spark.
That is why I posted it. Lot of people thought that was bullshit for whatever reason.
Quote:
Each team's QB's effect on betting line. Eli was basically no difference vs backup. Not like we're losing A.A. Ron Rod-gers.
That is why I posted it. Lot of people thought that was bullshit for whatever reason.
I think we both know the reason. A lot of Giants' fans were still thinking (more like hoping) that Eli was still a good QB.
This +1. The offense will likely look the same, I don't think people get this point. The issue will remain the defense and its ability to play football
Jones is a rookie and he'll probably play like one before he hopefully gets better. But Eli at 38 wasn't playing well, so it's not exactly a big step back for the team...and it could even give them a much-needed spark.
To the extent that the books apply any sort of implied football strategy to the betting line (which is to say, not very much even though many fans think it's some sort of prediction of the game's outcome), there may be a school of thought that starting a rookie QB may actually encourage Shurmur to use Barkley more aggressively, which would be a net positive for the team even if Eli is still better than Jones in this moment.
IMO, Eli wasn't better than Jones by enough to justify having the offense flow through him instead of Barkley, and that's primarily because Barkley is just that good (or should be, independent of usage). If Shurmur's version of kid gloves for Jones's first start includes a heavy dose of Barkley (as one would imagine it should), that's a huge improvement.
Where the hell did it open at 4??? There was thread here at the end of the Bills game that the line was 6.
I saw it open at +6 everywhere, but maybe I missed some of the early lines. In any case, I think it had moved to +6.5 yesterday, so it's possible that it was either early money in anticipation of the switch, or that the early money was reflective of the Giants being overpriced regardless of the QB.
The fact that it's still on the board at all is interesting - if the books sensed that it would cause a dramatic shift in the action, it would be off the board at least temporarily.
When that came out last week, it was all I needed to know that the "mythical" Eli folks remember is not the same as what he is now. The fact line last night was -6.5 to -7 and hasn't moved today should tell us something.
The Jets were +17.5 against the Patriots last night. Their new QB gets hurt and the 3rd string guy comes in. Their line has shot up 4 points to +21.5 this morning.
Bets are flowing in on the Giants, it is kind of concerning it hasn't moved to 7, means they don't think the Giants can cover.
That is a look ahead line, not an opening line.
I don't make up shit.
And you can go fuck yourself.
Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
key number this morning. maybe it gets to 7, but the books would take a real bath risk-wise if they ever bumped Tampa as more than a 7 point favorite over anybody.
Bets are flowing in on the Giants, it is kind of concerning it hasn't moved to 7, means they don't think the Giants can cover.
I suspect that there is money coming in on Tampa, but they know the sharps will pound if it gets to 7 or 7.5. It's about the key numbers.
The Giants got little more than replacement level play from the QB position in weeks 1-2. They're replacing him with the #6 overall pick. Not sure why anyone would expect a significant line move anyhow.
Quote:
key number this morning. maybe it gets to 7, but the books would take a real bath risk-wise if they ever bumped Tampa as more than a 7 point favorite over anybody.
Bets are flowing in on the Giants, it is kind of concerning it hasn't moved to 7, means they don't think the Giants can cover.
This shit again? The books are not in it to win bets. They're in it to balance the action and collect the vig.
Also, if "bets are flowing in on the Giants" the line would move down, not up.
Dorgan, sorry I looked at a few books and they all opened at 6. But I could do without the telling me to go fuck myself. Take a chill pill.
Again, if the money was 2-1 on the Giants, the spread would be coming down, not going up. So if they're resisting moving the line, it's not because they're backing the Bucs (because if that were the case, they'd be happy to back the Bucs on a lower line, too).
If they're artificially keeping the line up, it's because they're trying to get even more money in on the Giants without having to move across a key number (and/or give up the hook). If the line did indeed already move from +4 in the earliest action, then there's a ton of ballast for the Bucs already that Vegas is trying to cover.
There's no other logic to justify leaving the game on the board and then also leaving the line inflated if 2/3 bets are coming in on the underdog. Leaving it up and leaving it where it is means that they are fully inviting action on the Giants. Either because they're trying to balance the action or because they expect the game to get circled immediately if they move the line either way (either downwards to allow sharps to circle the -6 or upward to circle the +7).
Any recommended sites to use, I don't know how to even get started?
Any recommended sites to use, I don't know how to even get started?
If you are indeed located in ATL, I probably won't be of much help.
I live in NJ where it's all above-board these days. I've had a great experience with FanDuel Sportsbook and just this week added Borgata Sports to be able to shop lines a little bit.
Any recommended sites to use, I don't know how to even get started?
Go look at SBR review and find the best offshore book for your needs. I used a 5dimes, bookmaker, and bovada (for the dog lines). The larger operations are on the up and up, they rake in the money and it isn't worth the bad press to stiff you. You can use credit cards for some, but bitcoin is your best bet, especially because the books love it and offer huge bonuses for bitcoin which takes care of some of the exchange rate and transaction cost issues.