Mets Lineup
Brandon Nimmo – CF
Jeff McNeil – 3B
Pete Alonso – 1B
Robinson Cano – 2B
Wilson Ramos – C
Michael Conforto – RF
J.D. Davis – LF
Amed Rosario – SS
Jacob deGrom – RHP
Reds Lineup
Josh VanMeter – LF
Joey Votto – 1B
Eugenio Suarez – 3B
Aristides Aquino – RF
Tucker Barnhart – C
Jose Iglesias – SS
Phil Ervin – CF
Jose Peraza – 2B
Luis Castillo – RHP
10 games left. Season winding down. Still only 3.5 out. As unlikely as it is, crazier things have happened. Im really enjoying seeing this lineup finally together and the SP every night if for nothing else. This is the team we should have had all year. Anybody that cant see how much Nimmo has added since he's been back is blind IMO. In any event, deGrom looking to cement his Cy Young case tonight. Luis Castillo is no joke and believe the Reds will be a colossal pain in the ass this weekend. Let the chips fall where they may. LFGM!
It's a no-brainer that Wheeler will not accept the QO and then the Mets should try and work out an extension with him, if the bidding gets crazy and some team massively overpays, the c'est la vie. but not offering the QO and not making at least an effort to keep a player here who wants to be here and is a valuable commodity it would be 100% financial.
And no one blames the Wilpons for injuries that's ridiculous to claim, but reality is the Mets haven't sniffed the luxury tax in probably a decade, but still have received insurance money back on wright and Cespedes that they have not obviously reinvested in the team. That's what I am referring to and even this year I don't think the Mets are that close to the LT - depending on arbitration.
Well people have figured out the arbitration and we are pretty close to 200 for next year. The LT is 208 in 2020. Not sure we can afford to offer Wheeler a 19 AAV QO in the hopes he'll turn it down. If he accepts, we are WAY over. I do think they will try to make him a friendly offer though. Problem is, Wheeler might get way more than we are expecting. I still think he might get 100 million + in 2020. He's probably the 2nd or 3rd best SP on the market and only 29. Some team might find that VERY appealing.
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Keep the whole band together...
But when you purposely trade for a guy signed through 2020 thats due to make 18 million next year *Stroman" as a hedge to losing Wheeler... Again... that's not really being cheap.
It's not being cheap as much as it's being stupid. They could have just kept Kay for the league minimum and resigned Wheeler (who I'd personally prefer to Stroman in the first place).
What if Wheeler costs 100 million plus and they would have gotten outbid? Not the worst thing in the world to be proactive. And I liked Kay a lot but he's not guarantee to step in and be an immediate plus pitcher in a year where we will most likely be competing again.
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is not offering Wheeler the QO, like I said. Stroman changes nothing wrt to Wheeler and the QO. You are thinking already the way the Mets will spin it. "we did not view wheeler in our plan since we have Stroman" or some bullshit like that.
It's a no-brainer that Wheeler will not accept the QO and then the Mets should try and work out an extension with him, if the bidding gets crazy and some team massively overpays, the c'est la vie. but not offering the QO and not making at least an effort to keep a player here who wants to be here and is a valuable commodity it would be 100% financial.
And no one blames the Wilpons for injuries that's ridiculous to claim, but reality is the Mets haven't sniffed the luxury tax in probably a decade, but still have received insurance money back on wright and Cespedes that they have not obviously reinvested in the team. That's what I am referring to and even this year I don't think the Mets are that close to the LT - depending on arbitration.
Well people have figured out the arbitration and we are pretty close to 200 for next year. The LT is 208 in 2020. Not sure we can afford to offer Wheeler a 19 AAV QO in the hopes he'll turn it down. If he accepts, we are WAY over. I do think they will try to make him a friendly offer though. Problem is, Wheeler might get way more than we are expecting. I still think he might get 100 million + in 2020. He's probably the 2nd or 3rd best SP on the market and only 29. Some team might find that VERY appealing.
Pretty sure that includes $30 for Cespedes.
I think he'll retire or maybe be bought out this year.
If not there is a logjam anyway. Who is on your bench?
Nimmo?
JD?
Conforto?
Cespedes?
One of them will be and that assume McNeil is 3B with Frazier gone.
And Cano is a bad contract for a lot of reason and I'm not going to rehash them all. If he's not the worst contract in MLB he's at worst in the conversation.
Bryce Harper is 26 years old and will be done with his contract before he ever reaches the age Cano is right now, let alone 4 years from now. He is worth 4+ fwar this year with another ho-hum 30/100 season.
Manny Machado is 27 years old, also hit 30 homers, and will likely be a GG finalist at 3B. His "down year" of 2.5 fwar is still triple the productivity of the decade older Cano. Stanton is 29 years old and has been injured all year so he's tough to compare, but last year he too posted a 30/100 year worth over 4 fwar. His contract ends at his age 37 season. Or in other words the age Cano is right now, not 4 years from now.
Robinson Cano's mom would trade him for any of those guys.
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In comment 14590653 pjcas18 said:
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is not offering Wheeler the QO, like I said. Stroman changes nothing wrt to Wheeler and the QO. You are thinking already the way the Mets will spin it. "we did not view wheeler in our plan since we have Stroman" or some bullshit like that.
It's a no-brainer that Wheeler will not accept the QO and then the Mets should try and work out an extension with him, if the bidding gets crazy and some team massively overpays, the c'est la vie. but not offering the QO and not making at least an effort to keep a player here who wants to be here and is a valuable commodity it would be 100% financial.
And no one blames the Wilpons for injuries that's ridiculous to claim, but reality is the Mets haven't sniffed the luxury tax in probably a decade, but still have received insurance money back on wright and Cespedes that they have not obviously reinvested in the team. That's what I am referring to and even this year I don't think the Mets are that close to the LT - depending on arbitration.
Well people have figured out the arbitration and we are pretty close to 200 for next year. The LT is 208 in 2020. Not sure we can afford to offer Wheeler a 19 AAV QO in the hopes he'll turn it down. If he accepts, we are WAY over. I do think they will try to make him a friendly offer though. Problem is, Wheeler might get way more than we are expecting. I still think he might get 100 million + in 2020. He's probably the 2nd or 3rd best SP on the market and only 29. Some team might find that VERY appealing.
Pretty sure that includes $30 for Cespedes.
I think he'll retire or maybe be bought out this year.
If not there is a logjam anyway. Who is on your bench?
Nimmo?
JD?
Conforto?
Cespedes?
One of them will be and that assume McNeil is 3B with Frazier gone.
And Cano is a bad contract for a lot of reason and I'm not going to rehash them all. If he's not the worst contract in MLB he's at worst in the conversation.
I dont see Cespedes retiring at all. He's in a walk year and as annoying as the breaking ankle thing was back in May, it doesnt take 10 months to heal from it. He should absolutely be back by ST, injury prone or not.
For me, Nimmo and Conforto are locks in CF and RF. Davis, Cespedes, and Dom can compete for LF with the losers going to the bench. As always injuries will open things up so they should all get play.
If they can trade Cespedes or free up some of his 30 million AAV?? Then absolutely, that changes things. I would hope we could re-sign Wheeler then no matter what the cost. But Im only forecasting out what's on the books and right now Cespedes is our property for one more year.
Cespedes only has 1 year left and it's near 75% insured, so him not playing is actually ideal.
Darvish has same years/$ left as Cano and was worth 2 fwar this year. And he's 3+ years younger.
Heyward has about the same years/$ left and he was also worth 2 fwar this year. And he's almost 7 years younger.
with 400 AB's Cano is currently worth .8 fwar, he's be below league average as a hitter, there are only 5 2b worse in the field by DRS, and he turns 37 years old next month.
Seriously, what contract is worse than Canos?
There are several worse contracts than Cano... Chris Davis, Stanton, Miguel Cabrera, Ellsbury, etc.
Bryce Harper is 26 years old and will be done with his contract before he ever reaches the age Cano is right now, let alone 4 years from now. He is worth 4+ fwar this year with another ho-hum 30/100 season.
Manny Machado is 27 years old, also hit 30 homers, and will likely be a GG finalist at 3B. His "down year" of 2.5 fwar is still triple the productivity of the decade older Cano. Stanton is 29 years old and has been injured all year so he's tough to compare, but last year he too posted a 30/100 year worth over 4 fwar. His contract ends at his age 37 season. Or in other words the age Cano is right now, not 4 years from now.
Robinson Cano's mom would trade him for any of those guys.
Oh look. Another poster that cant talk baseball without resulting to name calling and insults. Its funny, because i used to get a lot of shit for it going back to my Dan battle days, but I almost never do unless I am attacked first. Dont you think its time we all grow up a bit?
To your point? 4 more years of Cano at 80 million is worse than 10 more years of Harper at 300 million? It's really difficult to see why one might be worse than the other? And how about Stanton? Love how you glossed over that one. Any big market team can absorb a 20 million AAV contract for 2 on 4 years or less. And again, Cano has proven that age hasn't stopped him yet this last second half.
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Pujols has 2 years left.
Cespedes only has 1 year left and it's near 75% insured, so him not playing is actually ideal.
Darvish has same years/$ left as Cano and was worth 2 fwar this year. And he's 3+ years younger.
Heyward has about the same years/$ left and he was also worth 2 fwar this year. And he's almost 7 years younger.
with 400 AB's Cano is currently worth .8 fwar, he's be below league average as a hitter, there are only 5 2b worse in the field by DRS, and he turns 37 years old next month.
Seriously, what contract is worse than Canos?
There are several worse contracts than Cano... Chris Davis, Stanton, Miguel Cabrera, Ellsbury, etc.
Thank you Four Aces.
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Pujols has 2 years left.
Cespedes only has 1 year left and it's near 75% insured, so him not playing is actually ideal.
Darvish has same years/$ left as Cano and was worth 2 fwar this year. And he's 3+ years younger.
Heyward has about the same years/$ left and he was also worth 2 fwar this year. And he's almost 7 years younger.
with 400 AB's Cano is currently worth .8 fwar, he's be below league average as a hitter, there are only 5 2b worse in the field by DRS, and he turns 37 years old next month.
Seriously, what contract is worse than Canos?
There are several worse contracts than Cano... Chris Davis, Stanton, Miguel Cabrera, Ellsbury, etc.
Chris Davis yes.
Ellsbury no (he only has 1 year left).
Cabrera yes.
I'd take Stanton straight up for Cano unless there's some medical problem, and if there is it would just depend on that prognosis + the insurance on the contract.
So 3rd worst contract in baseball?
And the hilarious part is we dont even know if Cano's contract is bad at all yet. Its all based on the assumption that his age will catch up to him and he'll fall off a cliff.Cano's wRC+ of 137 over the second half says Go Fish.
He might actually be a productive player for a few more years.
This is really hilarious though. Wg have Oliver Perez 15 million AAV 10+ years ago, but we are acting like Cano's 20 million is "shocking". lol
b/c Cespedes is gone the next year, and Lowrie, Stroman etc. so the Mets could keep both Wheeler and Syndergaard.
b/c Cespedes is gone the next year, and Lowrie, Stroman etc. so the Mets could keep both Wheeler and Syndergaard.
Well I hope they do. But its also up to the market and Wheeler. No guarantees he's coming back even with a nice offer. Im guessing thats why the Mets brought in Stroman.
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In comment 14590651 Eric on Li said:
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Pujols has 2 years left.
Cespedes only has 1 year left and it's near 75% insured, so him not playing is actually ideal.
Darvish has same years/$ left as Cano and was worth 2 fwar this year. And he's 3+ years younger.
Heyward has about the same years/$ left and he was also worth 2 fwar this year. And he's almost 7 years younger.
with 400 AB's Cano is currently worth .8 fwar, he's be below league average as a hitter, there are only 5 2b worse in the field by DRS, and he turns 37 years old next month.
Seriously, what contract is worse than Canos?
There are several worse contracts than Cano... Chris Davis, Stanton, Miguel Cabrera, Ellsbury, etc.
Chris Davis yes.
Ellsbury no (he only has 1 year left).
Cabrera yes.
I'd take Stanton straight up for Cano unless there's some medical problem, and if there is it would just depend on that prognosis + the insurance on the contract.
So 3rd worst contract in baseball?
I wish the analysis was as simple as number of years left. It’s number of years versus dollars left AND production. I’ll take 4 more years of Cano over 2 years left of Pujols too.
If they re-sign Wheeler I could see them trying to trade Noah again. I could also see Conforto as a prime chip to trade. He's a Boaras client, coming off a 30 HR season... only 2 years left. They might try and cash in knowing they have a log jam in CO potentially if Cespedes is healthy.
Either way, I think we are in for some major agita...
I wish the analysis was as simple as number of years left. It’s number of years versus dollars left AND production. I’ll take 4 more years of Cano over 2 years left of Pujols too.
What production is there to factor in with Cano? He has not been good this year. He's had a great september (as he did last year) but he is turning 37 and will be lucky to be worth 1 fwar this year. It's certainly arguable whether or not Pujols is just as bad but his remaining $ is still less by almost half. Neither projects to be an above average starter so in that instance i'll take the guy with half the $.
Glad to see you have the ability to get along with everyone else.../s
Glad to see you have the ability to get along with everyone else.../s
Id like to see where Ive name called one person where I wasn't personally insulted or attacked first. Feel free to go through some threads and point it out since its such a daily occurrence. Don't you have a dog to kick or a wife to verbally abuse somewhere? You must be the nastiest person to be around in real life... just a complete miserable asshole. lol
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I wish the analysis was as simple as number of years left. It’s number of years versus dollars left AND production. I’ll take 4 more years of Cano over 2 years left of Pujols too.
What production is there to factor in with Cano? He has not been good this year. He's had a great september (as he did last year) but he is turning 37 and will be lucky to be worth 1 fwar this year. It's certainly arguable whether or not Pujols is just as bad but his remaining $ is still less by almost half. Neither projects to be an above average starter so in that instance i'll take the guy with half the $.
Again, the assumption is that Cano’s fwar is approximately 1 for the next 4 years. Are we totally dismissing a transition to the National League and his injuries this year, particularly to his hand? If we are, then yes I would agree.
Secondly, Pujols doesn’t have ANY of those factors to consider at all. He’s just a player in steep decline and has been for awhile now so the reasonable assumption is it will only get worse.
The original point really is there are worse contracts than Cano.
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and “name calls” the entire group and then gets thin skin when someone calls him out on it. Hilarious. And also dead wrong about nearly everything.
Glad to see you have the ability to get along with everyone else.../s
Id like to see where Ive name called one person where I wasn't personally insulted or attacked first. Feel free to go through some threads and point it out since its such a daily occurrence. Don't you have a dog to kick or a wife to verbally abuse somewhere? You must be the nastiest person to be around in real life... just a complete miserable asshole. lol
That’s pretty funny since you get into arguments with posters in nearly every thread you post on. You are constantly ridiculed because you antagonize and belittle anyone that doesn’t conform to your superior point of view. And then you whine and cry when they hit you back. You are a joke. You are just the only person who doesn’t realize it. When you are done flexing your muscles behind your computer, you are likely the biggest coward in the world. Unfortunately, there’s plenty of your type out there. Good luck being you.
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In comment 14590687 Four Aces said:
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I wish the analysis was as simple as number of years left. It’s number of years versus dollars left AND production. I’ll take 4 more years of Cano over 2 years left of Pujols too.
What production is there to factor in with Cano? He has not been good this year. He's had a great september (as he did last year) but he is turning 37 and will be lucky to be worth 1 fwar this year. It's certainly arguable whether or not Pujols is just as bad but his remaining $ is still less by almost half. Neither projects to be an above average starter so in that instance i'll take the guy with half the $.
Again, the assumption is that Cano’s fwar is approximately 1 for the next 4 years. Are we totally dismissing a transition to the National League and his injuries this year, particularly to his hand? If we are, then yes I would agree.
Secondly, Pujols doesn’t have ANY of those factors to consider at all. He’s just a player in steep decline and has been for awhile now so the reasonable assumption is it will only get worse.
The original point really is there are worse contracts than Cano.
Cano’s need for PEDs late in his career is a pretty big omission.
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of the luxury tax to keep Wheeler it still makes sense.
b/c Cespedes is gone the next year, and Lowrie, Stroman etc. so the Mets could keep both Wheeler and Syndergaard.
Well I hope they do. But its also up to the market and Wheeler. No guarantees he's coming back even with a nice offer. Im guessing thats why the Mets brought in Stroman.
the cynic in me says they brought in Stroman so they can get away with not offering Wheeler the QO or a LT contract.
Mets thinking is one year of Stroman at $18 or whatever he gets in arb is better than a LT deal to Wheeler or $20M on the QO.
And then the next year they let Stroman walk so they can sign Syndergaard.
but that's just cynical thinking - the Mets do the bear minimum to appease the fans and give the illusion of trying to win. but half-assing it like they've done in the past and behind closed doors probably led to Diaz.
Again, the assumption is that Cano’s fwar is approximately 1 for the next 4 years. Are we totally dismissing a transition to the National League and his injuries this year, particularly to his hand? If we are, then yes I would agree.
Are we totally dismissing that players in their late 30's with athleticism eroding and injuries increasing are usually signs of the same severe decline Pujols (and almost every other player in every sport) go through past age 35? Pujols is 39 and he put up 90 rbis this year. If Cano puts up 90 rbis in any year as a Met I would be shocked. I think most people would take the under on Cano's entire Met career total fwar = 5. It's an interesting albeit depressing prop bet.
the cynic in me says they brought in Stroman so they can get away with not offering Wheeler the QO or a LT contract.
Mets thinking is one year of Stroman at $18 or whatever he gets in arb is better than a LT deal to Wheeler or $20M on the QO.
And then the next year they let Stroman walk so they can sign Syndergaard.
but that's just cynical thinking - the Mets do the bear minimum to appease the fans and give the illusion of trying to win. but half-assing it like they've done in the past and behind closed doors probably led to Diaz.
I think they will QO Wheeler but it's 50/50 whether or not they sign him. The best thing working in their direction is how poorly the market has been for guys with QO so maybe they get him on a good value contract.
I think they liked the idea of Stroman as an insurance policy more than the player himself. If Wheeler walks they have him back fill, or if they deal Syndergaard (who I doubt they sign long term). I think they liked that and they also liked that it was a "go for it" move that cornered the SP market at the deadline.
The problem is the 2 guys we already had are better, so they could have just kept the $ to be aggressive keeping our own guys instead of making it a tighter squeeze, and secondly that Kay has shown he was close to being ready to come up to the big leagues and his first few starts were already better than Vargas, so again you could have put more resources towards signing Wheeler/Thor long term. Also SWR is already pitching well in A+. He's going to be a top 100 prospect soon and that's going to be right around the time next year we are having the same discussions of whether or not they will qualify/sign Stroman.
So net-net BVW paid a pretty hefty price for an insurance policy for a future move that weakens the SP. A weakening made more likely because of the $ he has to spend on the insurance policy in the first place. And Stroman didn't pitch well until his last start, so he turned out not to help the playoff push.
The big boys are LAD, NYY, ChC, BOS.....all are over 25% higher payroll than the Mets. How are the Mets "playing with the big boys?"
If you enjoy great personal accolades while missing the postseason, great. I'd prefer to have a team make the playoffs, Cy Young and RoY are decent consolations but are not a substitute for winning. I'm simply saying that if you want to do what is best for the team you probably leave Pete in AAA to start the year. They gave up a full year of control for two weeks; may mean nothing today but it will become a big deal.
It is not about winning anything, but to sell sell sell.