Big Blue Interactive The Corner Forum  
Back to the Corner

NFT: NHL Reg Season in less than 1 week: Predictions & Discussion

pjcas18 : 9/27/2019 8:23 am
most teams have just 1 or 2 more pre-season games then the regular season starts.

thought I'd start a discussion thread.

Found this USA today record prediction and I think it's way off. I mean, way off.

but I'll share this and then add my commentary.

can't wait for the season to start.

Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 <<Prev | Show All |
Last one  
pjcas18 : 10/31/2019 9:08 am : link
Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey
·
2m
Reality vs expectation

I really should comment on other things today, I know.

But look at where the Sharks are. -1.6 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. And an NHL-worst -0.8 expected goal differential per 60, 5v5.

They've got the worst results and completely deserve them.


actually one more I like  
pjcas18 : 10/31/2019 9:20 am : link
and below is a link to the twitter profile of the author - seems like a good dude.

Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey
·
8m
Replying to
@ChartingHockey
"Pace"

OTT and NYR play high-paced games with lots and lots of shots. But OTT is "fun" (see above) because they generate above-average rates of shots too.

LAK is controlling the share of shots in their high-paced games so they're basically nothing like what I thought they'd be.



Link - ( New Window )
PJ - i've found high danger chances for to be 1 of the most telling  
Eric on Li : 10/31/2019 9:35 am : link
advanced stats, at least when it comes to the islanders. xG is good too but generally every game is some version of 2.2 - 1.8 so it's not all that useful.

In the 100 games since the Islanders have been coached by Trotz they've lost the shots attempted battle almost every night, and it's at least a little part strategic because they don't focus on volume they focus on quality. When they play well they generally win the HDCF% and it passes the "eye test".
HDCF% ranks - ( New Window )
RE: PJ - i've found high danger chances for to be 1 of the most telling  
pjcas18 : 10/31/2019 9:44 am : link
In comment 14655954 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
advanced stats, at least when it comes to the islanders. xG is good too but generally every game is some version of 2.2 - 1.8 so it's not all that useful.

In the 100 games since the Islanders have been coached by Trotz they've lost the shots attempted battle almost every night, and it's at least a little part strategic because they don't focus on volume they focus on quality. When they play well they generally win the HDCF% and it passes the "eye test". HDCF% ranks - ( New Window )


I agree Eric. Shots vs scoring chances (high danger or not) is definitely a trend that I think makes sense.

I'm generally more old school and traditionally have shunned stats in favor of "the eye test", but once I understood the stats I like seeing them to validate "did I see what I thought I saw" and for the games I don't see, is what I a saw the norm or the exception (IOW do they usually play that way)

As a coach (of youth hockey) I find myself saying to the kids when we run into a hot goalie "keep pushing, and we'll break through" and in my mind I'm think WTF is our PDO. LOL, these are 12 year olds. but it's real. puck luck is a "thing" only you have to hope it doesn't force you into that mode of "just throw pucks at the net" and I feel like sometimes teams do that. it's coaching.
watching a Trotz team really gives appreciation for coaching  
Eric on Li : 10/31/2019 10:02 am : link
they keep the game really simple, they play hard, they get the best out of the goalies, and they win more than they lose. Very much TBD how far they can go until they add some more offense but it's insane that they went from literally the worst defensive team of the decade in 17-18 to 1 of the best in the league since, with all the same players other than losing their captain in a heartbreaking fashion.
60 years ago today  
pjcas18 : 11/1/2019 9:27 am : link
Jacques Plante became the first goalie to wear a mask.

Nice comeback  
pjcas18 : 11/1/2019 11:46 am : link
win for the habs. Somewhat hyperbolic since "franchise history" is 82 games plus however many they've played this year at home, but nonetheless nice to see, especially with Tatar contributing to answer Pacioretty.

Quote:
Grant McCagg
@grantmccagg
·
32m
How improbable was the Vegas loss last night? The Knights had lost one game at home in franchise history in which they scored 4+ goals. And it wasn't while holding a two-goal lead with 7 mins left either playing an eastern team in a back-to-back with Fleury in nets.
One month in  
pjcas18 : 11/1/2019 11:55 am : link
Power Rankings (per the Athletic - Burnside)

1 Bruins
2 Av's
3 Caps
4 VGK
5 Preds
6 Sabres
7 Canes
8 NYI
9 TBL
10 Oilers
11 Blues
12 Pens
13 Coyotes
14 Leafs
15 Panthers
16 Canucks
17 Flames
18 Habs
19 Ducks
20 Flyers
21 BJs
22 Jets
23 Sharks
24 Stars
25 B-hawks
26 Wild
27 Rangers
28 Kings
29 Devils
30 Sens
31 Red Wings

Biggest surprises to me are:

Negative: the Stars, Devils, Lightning

Positive: Sabres, Isles, Pens (injuries/age) and Caps
Canes with 2 winnable games tonight and tomorrow  
Jints in Carolina : 11/1/2019 2:38 pm : link
at home vs Detroit and home vs. NJ. Already tied the franchise record for points in October with 17.

Hope to keep it going.
Canes  
pjcas18 : 11/1/2019 2:46 pm : link
won NHL network "best fans" contest.

I believe it was public vote, so those things always come with a grain of salt and I don't really believe CAR has the best fans but they have come a long way in recent years.

definitely a much better fan base now.
RE: Canes  
Jints in Carolina : 11/1/2019 4:05 pm : link
In comment 14657353 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
won NHL network "best fans" contest.

I believe it was public vote, so those things always come with a grain of salt and I don't really believe CAR has the best fans but they have come a long way in recent years.

definitely a much better fan base now.


that best fans thing is a joke...no way we have them...but they turned out for the fan vote.
RE: RE: Canes  
Mike in Long Beach : 11/1/2019 4:07 pm : link
In comment 14657488 Jints in Carolina said:
Quote:
In comment 14657353 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


won NHL network "best fans" contest.

I believe it was public vote, so those things always come with a grain of salt and I don't really believe CAR has the best fans but they have come a long way in recent years.

definitely a much better fan base now.



that best fans thing is a joke...no way we have them...but they turned out for the fan vote.


I went to the season opener in Carolina last year (Islanders vs Hurricanes) in Carolina. I have no idea who is the best or the worst, but I can say that the building had a great energy (you guys tied it up with like 40 seconds to go and the place went nuts) and all the fans were super cool to us. Had a really great time.
Funny story,  
Mike in Long Beach : 11/1/2019 4:11 pm : link
BBI's own Metnut, also an Islander fan, went to that game. We discussed privately about meeting up. There was a big Islander tailgate set up for it. On the plane to Carolina I had my Islander hat on, and some guy from Jersey spotted me and asked if I was going to the game. I said yes. My girlfriend and I ended up hanging out with him at the tailgate most of the afternoon. He was waiting on his buddy to show up and didn't know anyone else, so he just hung with us.. I was waiting on Metnut to show up. and also didn't know anyone else. When he finally did, we both found out we were waiting on the same person, ha. We both spotted him and almost simultaneously were like "Ah, there's my friend."
RE: Funny story,  
pjcas18 : 11/1/2019 4:56 pm : link
In comment 14657492 Mike in Long Beach said:
Quote:
BBI's own Metnut, also an Islander fan, went to that game. We discussed privately about meeting up. There was a big Islander tailgate set up for it. On the plane to Carolina I had my Islander hat on, and some guy from Jersey spotted me and asked if I was going to the game. I said yes. My girlfriend and I ended up hanging out with him at the tailgate most of the afternoon. He was waiting on his buddy to show up and didn't know anyone else, so he just hung with us.. I was waiting on Metnut to show up. and also didn't know anyone else. When he finally did, we both found out we were waiting on the same person, ha. We both spotted him and almost simultaneously were like "Ah, there's my friend."


that is funny.

going to be in NYC next week, trying to decide if I should go to Rangers vs Senators Monday night or watch MNF.

...  
BrettNYG10 : 11/1/2019 5:11 pm : link
Tough choice. All time great hockey event like seeing Namestnikov's return to MSG vs. seeing Jones' nine touchdown performance that is the beginning of a 12 game winning streak that ends in a title.
Shesterkin was named AHL Goalie of the Month  
Greg from LI : 11/1/2019 5:15 pm : link
Despite taking his first loss in a 4-1 to Laval. Three goals allowed ballooned his numbers all the way up to 1.49 GAA and .942 sv%.
Also, Elliott Friedman speculated that, with Tarasenko's injury  
Greg from LI : 11/1/2019 5:17 pm : link
STL might be very interested in dealing from Kreider.
for not from  
Greg from LI : 11/1/2019 5:18 pm : link
.
Canes with a 7 burger on Detroit  
Jints in Carolina : 11/1/2019 10:28 pm : link
How the mighty red wings have fallen.
Scary scene  
pjcas18 : 11/2/2019 7:42 pm : link
in Boston, Scott Sabourin collided with Backes. Looked innocuous but you could tell Sabourin wasn't right as he lost his motor functions while standing and fell lifeless to the ice. Not sure if it was his head to Backes shoulder or what. I think he has movement thankfully.

Link below for those interested
Link - ( New Window )
Lucic  
pjcas18 : 11/3/2019 4:24 pm : link
is a thug, but I don't think this was suspendable.

Sherwood poked late at the goalie, IMO that's the price you pay.

Quote:
Wes Gilbertson
@WesGilbertson
·
7m
#Flames
forward Milan Lucic handed a two-game suspension for Saturday's sucker-punch on Blue Jackets call-up Kole Sherwood.
man  
pjcas18 : 11/4/2019 8:13 pm : link
the Bruins are just firing on all cylinders right now.

Hope it's a case of peaking early, but they are just flat out dominant right now.

great timing for my post  
pjcas18 : 11/4/2019 8:31 pm : link
Pens get a bounce to break the ice and now it's 3 - 3
McDavid  
pjcas18 : 11/4/2019 9:24 pm : link
is ridiculous
Link - ( New Window )
Better angle  
pjcas18 : 11/4/2019 9:27 pm : link
on the McDavid goal
Link - ( New Window )
fucking Marchand  
pjcas18 : 11/4/2019 9:41 pm : link
can't stand that fucker.

/Cam Robinson/
@Hockey_Robinson
·
2m
Like the stinkiest of cheeses, Brad Marchand continues to get better with age.

4 more points today brings the 31-year-old up to 27 points in 14 games.

Here’s his 2nd of the night and likely game-winner.
this is like  
pjcas18 : 11/4/2019 9:56 pm : link
80's numbers


Chris Johnston
@reporterchris
Brad Marchand, points by game this season: 0-1-3-1-2-2-2-1-2-1-5-1-2-5.
9:54 PM · Nov 4, 2019·Twitter for Android
Big win  
pjcas18 : 11/5/2019 10:57 pm : link
for the Habs tonight beating the Bruins in regulation.

Isles keep rolling

.....  
BrettNYG10 : 11/7/2019 10:46 am : link
Undefeated since this comment:

Quote:
Tarasenko
pjcas18 : 10/28/2019 12:14 pm : link : reply
out at least 5 months with shoulder surgery.

The Blues were struggling and after last year, most people were hesitant to count them out or even really criticize them, but I'm going to say it now, there will be no repeat.


Went to the NYR/DET game last night. Defense played well other than Trouba IMO. Panarin is really impressive (no shit). Chytil looks great, pushes play and generates scoring chances. Kakko needs better linemates.
RE: .....  
pjcas18 : 11/7/2019 11:01 am : link
In comment 14668049 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
Undefeated since this comment:



Quote:


Tarasenko
pjcas18 : 10/28/2019 12:14 pm : link : reply
out at least 5 months with shoulder surgery.

The Blues were struggling and after last year, most people were hesitant to count them out or even really criticize them, but I'm going to say it now, there will be no repeat.



Went to the NYR/DET game last night. Defense played well other than Trouba IMO. Panarin is really impressive (no shit). Chytil looks great, pushes play and generates scoring chances. Kakko needs better linemates.


I didn't say they wouldn't win a game. lol.

I watched the Sens game in between Giants debacle.

Hajek needs more time in AHL IMO.

I like DeAngelo more and more every time I see him. Was never really sold on him, so coming around.

And Fox is going to be a top pair D and considered a steal of a trade for a along time.

He's impressive.
....  
BrettNYG10 : 11/7/2019 11:55 am : link
Quote:
Also
pjcas18 : 10/28/2019 12:14 pm : link : reply
The Blues will never win another game again.
I've been a big fan of DeAngelo.  
BrettNYG10 : 11/7/2019 11:56 am : link
I think he deserves more ice time.

Fox is really impressive. I thought he'd struggle more.

I'm with you on Hajek.
Hajek is yet another strange Quinn personnel decision  
Greg from LI : 11/7/2019 1:14 pm : link
Lindgren looked better than Hajek, so why sit Lindgren? Why sit Lias instead of Howden? And for crying out loud, why is Michael Haley even on the roster, let alone on the ice?
Hajek and Howden need time in Hartford more than  
BrettNYG10 : 11/7/2019 1:16 pm : link
Lias and Lindgren IMO.

I think Howden's often a fucking mess out there.
I agree  
Greg from LI : 11/7/2019 1:18 pm : link
But Howden is always in the lineup. I'm no hockey coach, but I have no idea what Quinn is seeing there.
There has to be things  
pjcas18 : 11/7/2019 1:31 pm : link
coaches see that we as fans do not. Obviously?

It's like in MTL Nick Suzuki is out skating his line mates significantly, such a fast, heady player, but they bury him on the 4th line with grinders.

When I watch Lias Andersson, same thing, he thinks the game so differently from his line mates that it's hindering his play. When he's on a line with Smith and Haley I just don't understand what they expect. Magic offense?

but I think every fan base has gripes with coaches about lineup decisions - especially with young players. So I won't pretend to know all the reasons why coaches decide what they do.
Cale Makar  
pjcas18 : 11/9/2019 10:42 pm : link
going top shelf. Watch this shot in slow motion. That's insane.
Link - ( New Window )
As soon as I buy in  
pjcas18 : 11/10/2019 9:00 am : link
to the Sabres every year, like clockwork, midnight strikes and they turn back into a pumpkin.

At some point, talent is going to win out, that team is too good to play so shitty.
I really put  
pjcas18 : 11/11/2019 2:30 pm : link
the hex on the Bruins. They have looked awful the past three games.

No complaints from me.
Also hockey news worthy  
pjcas18 : 11/11/2019 2:41 pm : link
Sportsnet fired Don Cherry.

I couldn't stand him other than my 12-year old and I turning on Hockey Night in Canada on Saturday nights to laugh at his suits.

But he had a message on Saturday to immigrants re: the poppys and Canada's veterans day that was deemed offensive and like others in this climate, who say things that offends some people, he's been canceled.

Tough Game Tonight v. Pens  
Percy : 11/12/2019 2:58 pm : link
Hope they can win one here since Crosby won't be able to play -- especially after that disappointment against the Panthers two nights ago. Be a good idea to rest Lundqvist, too.
My Bruins  
pjcas18 : 11/13/2019 9:29 am : link
hex continues. They blew a 4 - 0 lead to FL and lost in the shootout.

Meanwhile, Carey Price looks like Carey Price of a couple years ago. Defense in MTL still a liability, so he gives up goals, but not nearly as many as he should. He's stolen 5 points the past 4 starts he's made.
Updated charts  
pjcas18 : 11/13/2019 9:56 am : link
Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey
Good morning, friends.

Everything at http://chartinghockey.ca is updated.

Let's look at some teams: https://chartinghockey.ca/daily-charts/daily-team-charts/

Here are some differences...
CAR gets 63 shots per 60, 5v5. NJD gets about 48.
BOS allows only 49 shots per 60, 5v5. NYR allows 67.




Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey
·
1h
Replying to
@ChartingHockey
PDO breakdown

CBJ and DET get 5v5 goals with 6.5% of their shots.
NSH gets goals on just under 11% of shots.

That's a big difference.

SJS gets saves on 87% of 5v5 shots faced.
NYI gets saves on more than 94% of shots faced.

Again, kind of a difference.



Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey
·
56m
xG rates

OTT generates 2.52 xG per 60 minutes at 5v5. They allow 2.56 xG against. Somehow, this thin roster filled with young players is going really fast and dangerous and essentially breaking even on quality.

It's kind of fun.



Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey
·
51m
Shot share (coloured by GF%)

The top-end makes sense -- CAR, VAN, BOS, PIT, and MTL have the league's best shot differentials and positive goal shares to match.

The back-end is stranger, with OTT, NYI, and ANA doing well despite poor shot differentials. Each deserves attention.



Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey
·
45m
xG share (coloured by goal share)

VGK and MIN are teams to watch -- great control of quality chances but poor 5v5 goal results. They're good bets to improve.

BUF and STL are the opposite -- good goal differentials but poor quality control. Regression should be expected.



Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey
·
32m
Quantity vs quality

TOR is the clearest member of the quantity but not quality group, winning on shot share but losing on quality share.

There's a small crew doing the opposite: CBJ, EDM, MIN, and DAL manage quality but lose on quantity.



Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey
·
22m
Reality vs expectation

Good for real: VAN, PIT, CAR, MTL, NSH, some others

Good but we have questions: COL, BUF, STL

Bad and it won't last: VGK, MIN

Bad and the 2020 entry draft is on Fri, June 26: SJS, WPG,
NYR, DET



Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey
·
20m
Game Pace

If you watch a PHI or FLA game, you won't see lots of shots but the ones you see will excite you!

If you watch NSH or CBJ, you'll get the quantity and I hope you enjoy shots from the point and half-wall.



Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey
·
17m
xG daggers

I'm surprised by 3 of the 4 division leaders in xG differential.



Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey
·
12m
Team stats heatmap

Two of the top three by goal differential (5v5) have below average rates of quality creation...but excellent sh%. It's interesting.

The bottom three by goal differential aren't bad at limiting shots against but that's a little tricky b/c NYR is skewing things



Barry Trotz  
Mike in NY : 11/13/2019 10:11 am : link
Has a long enough track record that you know that his teams will always look bad on paper in terms of shot differential and high SV% for, but that is his system. Raw shot totals don't matter as much as quality of opportunities. The eye test also says they are not winning a large number of games due to fluke bounces even though they have had that this season (St. Louis game comes to mind). That being said, eventually opponents are going to get some bounces and you can't try to win every game 3-2. They are going to need more consistent secondary scoring.
Trotz teams  
pjcas18 : 11/13/2019 10:16 am : link
always break the analytics.

Main question you need to ask, is a .932 save percentage sustainable.

They also have the highest PIM differential in the league. By a lot over the league average.

If nothing else shows system (without a Hasek or Roy in net) and discipline - it's those two stats IMO.

With a Trotz team though, I'd always lean toward it being his system vs a stat anomaly.

until it's not.
Kings working on releasing  
pjcas18 : 11/13/2019 1:28 pm : link
Kovalchuk.

Some goalie charts  
pjcas18 : 11/13/2019 1:55 pm : link
What a disaster Bobrovsky has been and they have him for what? 6 or 7 more years?

And they just drafted Spencer Knight at #12 (?) overall.


Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey
·
1m
Goalie charts

Have a look here: https://chartinghockey.ca/daily-charts/daily-goalie-charts/

Goalies are hard because the position can be volatile. For example, Greiss, Kuemper, and Koskinen are in the top-five for goals saved above expectation so far this year.


More goalies....  
pjcas18 : 11/13/2019 2:02 pm : link
Quote:
Replying to
@ChartingHockey
Tandem starters and backups.

Guess who has been better, Lundqvist or Georgiev.

Trick question. They're exactly the same (except Hank's faced much more work).




Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey
·
1m
Performance vs workload

Only Henrik Lundqvist had faced a more challenging workload than Hutchinson before Hutchinson was placed on waivers. Hutchinson didn't perform well either...but he faced a very challenging workload as well.


Mike Smith is still around??  
Greg from LI : 11/13/2019 2:34 pm : link
How old is that guy?
RE: Some goalie charts  
Mike in NY : 11/13/2019 2:35 pm : link
In comment 14678921 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
What a disaster Bobrovsky has been and they have him for what? 6 or 7 more years?

And they just drafted Spencer Knight at #12 (?) overall.




Quote:


Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey
·
1m
Goalie charts

Have a look here: https://chartinghockey.ca/daily-charts/daily-goalie-charts/

Goalies are hard because the position can be volatile. For example, Greiss, Kuemper, and Koskinen are in the top-five for goals saved above expectation so far this year.





I don't understand Florida. If you had Bobrovsky signed that long why do you draft Knight? Only possible explanation is that they hope they can sell him to Seattle in the Expansion Draft knowing that they will need to reach the cap floor. Why risk that and giving up further draft picks? If you wanted Bobrovsky longterm they could have selected Caufield, Krebs, Harley, or Heinola.
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 <<Prev | Show All |
Back to the Corner