NFT: NHL Reg Season in less than 1 week: Predictions & Discussion

I think I saw maybe one worse game live and it was the 6-1 loss to the Devils in the playoffs in 06. Absolute travesty of a game. It looked like adults playing against children.

In comment 14651288 pjcas18 said:

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from Granato on Caufield (probably somewhat hyperbolic, but nice anyway). Quote: Jonathan Bernier ✔ @JBernierJDM I went to Madison to see Cole Caufield plays. @TonyGranato was on fire comparing the kid's shot to Brett Hull's, Steven Stamkos' and Alex Ovechkin's. But he was right. Caufield lauches rockets. You can read my paper (in French) here. https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2019/10/20/sans-cachette-ni-detour …

Well PJ, you have a nice smile on your face, I'm sure :)

Hope you stay a Badger fan after this year.

liked Granato, so while I'm not a Badgers fan, I see him one day leading a USA Hockey WJC team or involved in some other way in USA Hockey, s I'll always be a fan of his.

I like the youth in Wisconsin right now. Holloway is fun to watch too (2020 draft eligible), along with the others, Caufield, Turcotte, Miller, etc.

How insane is it for Holloway not even being drafted yet (sort of like Eichel).

Days.

Wisconsin has this team ethos - - no primaa donna's, developing students and good character that permeates all the sports that I have followed /been part of.

Have you been able to find a hockey feed/stream?

In comment 14651425 Jay in Toronto said:

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Days. Wisconsin has this team ethos - - no primaa donna's, developing students and good character that permeates all the sports that I have followed /been part of. Have you been able to find a hockey feed/stream?

Usually if you look on twitter, one of the hockey guys will tweet out a stream. But I saw two of the Wisconsin games on TV (BC was on NESN+ and Merrimack was on something local too - I forget what - it could have been a stream actually).

those are the only two I have seen this year for Wisconsin.

and Lindgren called up.

Chytil was playing really well in Hartford.

In comment 14650113 pjcas18 said:

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In comment 14650070 5BowlsSoon said: Quote: In comment 14649970 pjcas18 said: Quote: was bad, but man that D is going to be the Achilles heel unless they fix it. Hard to win a game when you allow two breakaways and multiple odd man rushes. People will blame the goalie but he'd have needed to be all-world to make those saves. And let's face it, Hutchinson is not all world. Best thing for the Habs is Drouin starting to play smarter. We tried to fix it with Ceci and Barrie and Muzzin at trade deadline. Barrie has been the worst of the three. Help from Marlies soon... I wonder if moving Drouin to your third line has helped him by reducing the pressure and allowing him to go against lesser players. What do you think? By the way, your boys can roll out 4 lines. That Suzuki kid is going to be good. I’m sure you don’t miss MaxPac. Drouin is on the 2nd line with Domi and Armia. I do miss Pacioretty, but Tatar, Suzuki (and Mattias Norlinder) are better fits with the state of the Canadiens. I think they might even trade Tatar because he's just redundant at this point, but still good value. I think that's a trade that worked out for both teams. but Max is one of the rare NHL players who can play in all situations and is above average in all facets. Hard not to like him.

Oh, I didn’t get that update from my brother. I heard he was with Armia and Kotkaniemi when the season started. I guess the Habs swapped K for Domi. I hope it works out for your boys. Good luck on the West Coast this week.

show for the Habs lately. Just have to hope for .500.

Watched some of the Sabres last night. They lost in OT, but man, Eichel has developed into the player many felt he would be.

He's not McDavid, so that draft went the way it should have, but he's not a bad draft #2. He is elite offensively and I was very impressed with his defensive awareness.

I am close to buying in to the sabres, and it's pretty damning of Phil Housley if they sustain this.

fan early on in his career. He was talented, without a doubt, but I think Trotz made him think differently about the game (at least from my observations).

But he is becoming a fast favorite now.

And he nails the Leafs here and I love he had the balls to say it.

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Alex Ovechkin on Leafs: "They are still a young group of guys & I hope they're going to learn, but it's up to them how they want to do it & if they want to play for yourself, or if they want to win a Cup, they have to play differently. It's no doubt."

But he knows......this seems like a coaching problem to me. Is Babcock obsolete?

Babcock, even when he won a cup.

I don't know if he's obsolete, but i do feel like when you have a team that talented and they don't win like they should, the coach takes the fall.

They clearly have the offense, but it seems like every Defenseman regresses defensively playing there. I am not sure if it is coaching, the scheme, or the players. For most players, if you are going to sell out for extra offense, you are going to get burned defensively. As Trotz described AV's scheme, when everything is clicking there is nobody they can't outscore, but if it is more than a little off you can exploit it.

I doubt it, but I hope he stays healthy enough to challenge it.

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HockeyDB @hockey_db Age 18-29 Wayne Gretzky: 706 goals Age 18-29 Alex Ovechkin: 475 goals Age 30-33 Wayne Gretzky: 82 goals Age 30-33 Alex Ovechkin: 183 goals Will Ovechkin ever pass the great one? #HockeyDB 12:22 PM · Oct 30, 2019·Twitter for iPhone

what do the charts/analytics say?

The first couple charts tell a good story, the others a little deeper.

My main problem with shot share is it doesn't (to the best of my knowledge) weight dangerous shots vs non-dangerous shots (IOW not all shots are equal).

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Sean Tierney @ChartingHockey · 32m Happy Halloween, friends! An interesting team here is SJS, who is allowing a below-average rate of shots against (good) but generating well below-average shots for (bad). Teams just like them: EDM, BUF, DAL, maybe DET. Have a look around the site here: https://chartinghockey.ca/daily-team-cha

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Sean Tierney @ChartingHockey · 28m Replying to @ChartingHockey PDO breakdown Teams still getting sub-90 save percentages as a team at 5v5: TOR, PHI, LAK, SJS, FLA, NJD. Sv% will regress to the mean for these teams and that'll help improve their results...eventually.

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Sean Tierney @ChartingHockey · 22m xG rates SJS remains stunning here. DAL remains...un-stunning. CAR remains the best in the NHL. PHI remains the most...fun. I know, I know. Shout-out to break-even teams: COL, CGY, FLA, DET, TOR.

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Sean Tierney @ChartingHockey · 11m Shot share (coloured by GF%) VAN's xG share doesn't follow this path but it's incredible that they're second-best by shot share so far. BOS, CAR, MTL, and ARI join the Canucks in the top-five, all with the positive goal shares we'd expect them to have.

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Sean Tierney @ChartingHockey · 3m xG share (coloured by GF%) Interesting re: NYI. They're credited for playing Trotz's system, focused on controlling shot quality (and less concerned with quantity rates). But NYI is losing the quality share battle too, which is a hard way to keep winning without +sh% and +sv%.

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Sean Tierney @ChartingHockey Quality vs quantity Surprising teams in good: VAN, LAK, ARI as far out as they are Surprising teams in bad: SJS

it looks like the Bruins are dominant, without a glaring weakness, when you watch them and the data supports it.

It may take an injury to derail them.

I wasn't even close to this impressed with TBL last year, the Bruins power play is like watching a clinic, sometimes it doesn't seem like they are playing against NHL players.

They can play the physical game, skill game, solid D, roll four lines, and two good goalies.

it's a living hell right now in Boston.

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Sean Tierney @ChartingHockey · 2m Reality vs expectation I really should comment on other things today, I know. But look at where the Sharks are. -1.6 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. And an NHL-worst -0.8 expected goal differential per 60, 5v5. They've got the worst results and completely deserve them.

and below is a link to the twitter profile of the author - seems like a good dude.

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Sean Tierney @ChartingHockey · 8m Replying to @ChartingHockey "Pace" OTT and NYR play high-paced games with lots and lots of shots. But OTT is "fun" (see above) because they generate above-average rates of shots too. LAK is controlling the share of shots in their high-paced games so they're basically nothing like what I thought they'd be.

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advanced stats, at least when it comes to the islanders. xG is good too but generally every game is some version of 2.2 - 1.8 so it's not all that useful.

In the 100 games since the Islanders have been coached by Trotz they've lost the shots attempted battle almost every night, and it's at least a little part strategic because they don't focus on volume they focus on quality. When they play well they generally win the HDCF% and it passes the "eye test".
HDCF% ranks - ( New Window )

In comment 14655954 Eric on Li said:

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advanced stats, at least when it comes to the islanders. xG is good too but generally every game is some version of 2.2 - 1.8 so it's not all that useful. In the 100 games since the Islanders have been coached by Trotz they've lost the shots attempted battle almost every night, and it's at least a little part strategic because they don't focus on volume they focus on quality. When they play well they generally win the HDCF% and it passes the "eye test". HDCF% ranks - ( New Window )

I agree Eric. Shots vs scoring chances (high danger or not) is definitely a trend that I think makes sense.

I'm generally more old school and traditionally have shunned stats in favor of "the eye test", but once I understood the stats I like seeing them to validate "did I see what I thought I saw" and for the games I don't see, is what I a saw the norm or the exception (IOW do they usually play that way)

As a coach (of youth hockey) I find myself saying to the kids when we run into a hot goalie "keep pushing, and we'll break through" and in my mind I'm think WTF is our PDO. LOL, these are 12 year olds. but it's real. puck luck is a "thing" only you have to hope it doesn't force you into that mode of "just throw pucks at the net" and I feel like sometimes teams do that. it's coaching.

they keep the game really simple, they play hard, they get the best out of the goalies, and they win more than they lose. Very much TBD how far they can go until they add some more offense but it's insane that they went from literally the worst defensive team of the decade in 17-18 to 1 of the best in the league since, with all the same players other than losing their captain in a heartbreaking fashion.

Jacques Plante became the first goalie to wear a mask.

win for the habs. Somewhat hyperbolic since "franchise history" is 82 games plus however many they've played this year at home, but nonetheless nice to see, especially with Tatar contributing to answer Pacioretty.

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Grant McCagg @grantmccagg · 32m How improbable was the Vegas loss last night? The Knights had lost one game at home in franchise history in which they scored 4+ goals. And it wasn't while holding a two-goal lead with 7 mins left either playing an eastern team in a back-to-back with Fleury in nets.

Power Rankings (per the Athletic - Burnside)

1 Bruins
2 Av's
3 Caps
4 VGK
5 Preds
6 Sabres
7 Canes
8 NYI
9 TBL
10 Oilers
11 Blues
12 Pens
13 Coyotes
14 Leafs
15 Panthers
16 Canucks
17 Flames
18 Habs
19 Ducks
20 Flyers
21 BJs
22 Jets
23 Sharks
24 Stars
25 B-hawks
26 Wild
27 Rangers
28 Kings
29 Devils
30 Sens
31 Red Wings

Biggest surprises to me are:

Negative: the Stars, Devils, Lightning

Positive: Sabres, Isles, Pens (injuries/age) and Caps

at home vs Detroit and home vs. NJ. Already tied the franchise record for points in October with 17.

Hope to keep it going.

won NHL network "best fans" contest.

I believe it was public vote, so those things always come with a grain of salt and I don't really believe CAR has the best fans but they have come a long way in recent years.

definitely a much better fan base now.

In comment 14657353 pjcas18 said:

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won NHL network "best fans" contest. I believe it was public vote, so those things always come with a grain of salt and I don't really believe CAR has the best fans but they have come a long way in recent years. definitely a much better fan base now.

that best fans thing is a joke...no way we have them...but they turned out for the fan vote.

In comment 14657488 Jints in Carolina said:

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In comment 14657353 pjcas18 said: Quote: won NHL network "best fans" contest. I believe it was public vote, so those things always come with a grain of salt and I don't really believe CAR has the best fans but they have come a long way in recent years. definitely a much better fan base now. that best fans thing is a joke...no way we have them...but they turned out for the fan vote.

I went to the season opener in Carolina last year (Islanders vs Hurricanes) in Carolina. I have no idea who is the best or the worst, but I can say that the building had a great energy (you guys tied it up with like 40 seconds to go and the place went nuts) and all the fans were super cool to us. Had a really great time.

BBI's own Metnut, also an Islander fan, went to that game. We discussed privately about meeting up. There was a big Islander tailgate set up for it. On the plane to Carolina I had my Islander hat on, and some guy from Jersey spotted me and asked if I was going to the game. I said yes. My girlfriend and I ended up hanging out with him at the tailgate most of the afternoon. He was waiting on his buddy to show up and didn't know anyone else, so he just hung with us.. I was waiting on Metnut to show up. and also didn't know anyone else. When he finally did, we both found out we were waiting on the same person, ha. We both spotted him and almost simultaneously were like "Ah, there's my friend."

In comment 14657492 Mike in Long Beach said:

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BBI's own Metnut, also an Islander fan, went to that game. We discussed privately about meeting up. There was a big Islander tailgate set up for it. On the plane to Carolina I had my Islander hat on, and some guy from Jersey spotted me and asked if I was going to the game. I said yes. My girlfriend and I ended up hanging out with him at the tailgate most of the afternoon. He was waiting on his buddy to show up and didn't know anyone else, so he just hung with us.. I was waiting on Metnut to show up. and also didn't know anyone else. When he finally did, we both found out we were waiting on the same person, ha. We both spotted him and almost simultaneously were like "Ah, there's my friend."

that is funny.

going to be in NYC next week, trying to decide if I should go to Rangers vs Senators Monday night or watch MNF.

Tough choice. All time great hockey event like seeing Namestnikov's return to MSG vs. seeing Jones' nine touchdown performance that is the beginning of a 12 game winning streak that ends in a title.

Despite taking his first loss in a 4-1 to Laval. Three goals allowed ballooned his numbers all the way up to 1.49 GAA and .942 sv%.

STL might be very interested in dealing from Kreider.

.

How the mighty red wings have fallen.

in Boston, Scott Sabourin collided with Backes. Looked innocuous but you could tell Sabourin wasn't right as he lost his motor functions while standing and fell lifeless to the ice. Not sure if it was his head to Backes shoulder or what. I think he has movement thankfully.

Link below for those interested
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is a thug, but I don't think this was suspendable.

Sherwood poked late at the goalie, IMO that's the price you pay.

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Wes Gilbertson @WesGilbertson · 7m #Flames forward Milan Lucic handed a two-game suspension for Saturday's sucker-punch on Blue Jackets call-up Kole Sherwood.

the Bruins are just firing on all cylinders right now.

Hope it's a case of peaking early, but they are just flat out dominant right now.

Pens get a bounce to break the ice and now it's 3 - 3

is ridiculous
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on the McDavid goal
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can't stand that fucker.

/Cam Robinson/
@Hockey_Robinson
·
2m
Like the stinkiest of cheeses, Brad Marchand continues to get better with age.

4 more points today brings the 31-year-old up to 27 points in 14 games.

Here’s his 2nd of the night and likely game-winner.

80's numbers


Chris Johnston
@reporterchris
Brad Marchand, points by game this season: 0-1-3-1-2-2-2-1-2-1-5-1-2-5.
9:54 PM · Nov 4, 2019·Twitter for Android

for the Habs tonight beating the Bruins in regulation.

Isles keep rolling

Undefeated since this comment:

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Tarasenko pjcas18 : 10/28/2019 12:14 pm : link : reply out at least 5 months with shoulder surgery. The Blues were struggling and after last year, most people were hesitant to count them out or even really criticize them, but I'm going to say it now, there will be no repeat.

Went to the NYR/DET game last night. Defense played well other than Trouba IMO. Panarin is really impressive (no shit). Chytil looks great, pushes play and generates scoring chances. Kakko needs better linemates.

In comment 14668049 BrettNYG10 said:

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Undefeated since this comment: Quote: Tarasenko pjcas18 : 10/28/2019 12:14 pm : link : reply out at least 5 months with shoulder surgery. The Blues were struggling and after last year, most people were hesitant to count them out or even really criticize them, but I'm going to say it now, there will be no repeat. Went to the NYR/DET game last night. Defense played well other than Trouba IMO. Panarin is really impressive (no shit). Chytil looks great, pushes play and generates scoring chances. Kakko needs better linemates.

I didn't say they wouldn't win a game. lol.

I watched the Sens game in between Giants debacle.

Hajek needs more time in AHL IMO.

I like DeAngelo more and more every time I see him. Was never really sold on him, so coming around.

And Fox is going to be a top pair D and considered a steal of a trade for a along time.

He's impressive.

I think he deserves more ice time.

Fox is really impressive. I thought he'd struggle more.

I'm with you on Hajek.

Lindgren looked better than Hajek, so why sit Lindgren? Why sit Lias instead of Howden? And for crying out loud, why is Michael Haley even on the roster, let alone on the ice?

Lias and Lindgren IMO.

I think Howden's often a fucking mess out there.