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NFT: NHL Reg Season in less than 1 week: Predictions & Discussion

pjcas18 : 9/27/2019 8:23 am
most teams have just 1 or 2 more pre-season games then the regular season starts.

thought I'd start a discussion thread.

Found this USA today record prediction and I think it's way off. I mean, way off.

but I'll share this and then add my commentary.

can't wait for the season to start.

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I agree  
Greg from LI : 11/7/2019 1:18 pm : link
But Howden is always in the lineup. I'm no hockey coach, but I have no idea what Quinn is seeing there.
There has to be things  
pjcas18 : 11/7/2019 1:31 pm : link
coaches see that we as fans do not. Obviously?

It's like in MTL Nick Suzuki is out skating his line mates significantly, such a fast, heady player, but they bury him on the 4th line with grinders.

When I watch Lias Andersson, same thing, he thinks the game so differently from his line mates that it's hindering his play. When he's on a line with Smith and Haley I just don't understand what they expect. Magic offense?

but I think every fan base has gripes with coaches about lineup decisions - especially with young players. So I won't pretend to know all the reasons why coaches decide what they do.
Cale Makar  
pjcas18 : 11/9/2019 10:42 pm : link
going top shelf. Watch this shot in slow motion. That's insane.
Link - ( New Window )
As soon as I buy in  
pjcas18 : 11/10/2019 9:00 am : link
to the Sabres every year, like clockwork, midnight strikes and they turn back into a pumpkin.

At some point, talent is going to win out, that team is too good to play so shitty.
I really put  
pjcas18 : 11/11/2019 2:30 pm : link
the hex on the Bruins. They have looked awful the past three games.

No complaints from me.
Also hockey news worthy  
pjcas18 : 11/11/2019 2:41 pm : link
Sportsnet fired Don Cherry.

I couldn't stand him other than my 12-year old and I turning on Hockey Night in Canada on Saturday nights to laugh at his suits.

But he had a message on Saturday to immigrants re: the poppys and Canada's veterans day that was deemed offensive and like others in this climate, who say things that offends some people, he's been canceled.

Tough Game Tonight v. Pens  
Percy : 11/12/2019 2:58 pm : link
Hope they can win one here since Crosby won't be able to play -- especially after that disappointment against the Panthers two nights ago. Be a good idea to rest Lundqvist, too.
My Bruins  
pjcas18 : 11/13/2019 9:29 am : link
hex continues. They blew a 4 - 0 lead to FL and lost in the shootout.

Meanwhile, Carey Price looks like Carey Price of a couple years ago. Defense in MTL still a liability, so he gives up goals, but not nearly as many as he should. He's stolen 5 points the past 4 starts he's made.
Updated charts  
pjcas18 : 11/13/2019 9:56 am : link
Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey
Good morning, friends.

Everything at http://chartinghockey.ca is updated.

Let's look at some teams: https://chartinghockey.ca/daily-charts/daily-team-charts/

Here are some differences...
CAR gets 63 shots per 60, 5v5. NJD gets about 48.
BOS allows only 49 shots per 60, 5v5. NYR allows 67.




Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey

1h
Replying to
@ChartingHockey
PDO breakdown

CBJ and DET get 5v5 goals with 6.5% of their shots.
NSH gets goals on just under 11% of shots.

That's a big difference.

SJS gets saves on 87% of 5v5 shots faced.
NYI gets saves on more than 94% of shots faced.

Again, kind of a difference.



Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey

56m
xG rates

OTT generates 2.52 xG per 60 minutes at 5v5. They allow 2.56 xG against. Somehow, this thin roster filled with young players is going really fast and dangerous and essentially breaking even on quality.

It's kind of fun.



Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey

51m
Shot share (coloured by GF%)

The top-end makes sense -- CAR, VAN, BOS, PIT, and MTL have the league's best shot differentials and positive goal shares to match.

The back-end is stranger, with OTT, NYI, and ANA doing well despite poor shot differentials. Each deserves attention.



Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey

45m
xG share (coloured by goal share)

VGK and MIN are teams to watch -- great control of quality chances but poor 5v5 goal results. They're good bets to improve.

BUF and STL are the opposite -- good goal differentials but poor quality control. Regression should be expected.



Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey

32m
Quantity vs quality

TOR is the clearest member of the quantity but not quality group, winning on shot share but losing on quality share.

There's a small crew doing the opposite: CBJ, EDM, MIN, and DAL manage quality but lose on quantity.



Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey

22m
Reality vs expectation

Good for real: VAN, PIT, CAR, MTL, NSH, some others

Good but we have questions: COL, BUF, STL

Bad and it won't last: VGK, MIN

Bad and the 2020 entry draft is on Fri, June 26: SJS, WPG,
NYR, DET



Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey

20m
Game Pace

If you watch a PHI or FLA game, you won't see lots of shots but the ones you see will excite you!

If you watch NSH or CBJ, you'll get the quantity and I hope you enjoy shots from the point and half-wall.



Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey

17m
xG daggers

I'm surprised by 3 of the 4 division leaders in xG differential.



Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey

12m
Team stats heatmap

Two of the top three by goal differential (5v5) have below average rates of quality creation...but excellent sh%. It's interesting.

The bottom three by goal differential aren't bad at limiting shots against but that's a little tricky b/c NYR is skewing things



Barry Trotz  
Mike in NY : 11/13/2019 10:11 am : link
Has a long enough track record that you know that his teams will always look bad on paper in terms of shot differential and high SV% for, but that is his system. Raw shot totals don't matter as much as quality of opportunities. The eye test also says they are not winning a large number of games due to fluke bounces even though they have had that this season (St. Louis game comes to mind). That being said, eventually opponents are going to get some bounces and you can't try to win every game 3-2. They are going to need more consistent secondary scoring.
Trotz teams  
pjcas18 : 11/13/2019 10:16 am : link
always break the analytics.

Main question you need to ask, is a .932 save percentage sustainable.

They also have the highest PIM differential in the league. By a lot over the league average.

If nothing else shows system (without a Hasek or Roy in net) and discipline - it's those two stats IMO.

With a Trotz team though, I'd always lean toward it being his system vs a stat anomaly.

until it's not.
Kings working on releasing  
pjcas18 : 11/13/2019 1:28 pm : link
Kovalchuk.

Some goalie charts  
pjcas18 : 11/13/2019 1:55 pm : link
What a disaster Bobrovsky has been and they have him for what? 6 or 7 more years?

And they just drafted Spencer Knight at #12 (?) overall.


Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey

1m
Goalie charts

Have a look here: https://chartinghockey.ca/daily-charts/daily-goalie-charts/

Goalies are hard because the position can be volatile. For example, Greiss, Kuemper, and Koskinen are in the top-five for goals saved above expectation so far this year.


More goalies....  
pjcas18 : 11/13/2019 2:02 pm : link
Quote:
Replying to
@ChartingHockey
Tandem starters and backups.

Guess who has been better, Lundqvist or Georgiev.

Trick question. They're exactly the same (except Hank's faced much more work).




Quote:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey

1m
Performance vs workload

Only Henrik Lundqvist had faced a more challenging workload than Hutchinson before Hutchinson was placed on waivers. Hutchinson didn't perform well either...but he faced a very challenging workload as well.


Mike Smith is still around??  
Greg from LI : 11/13/2019 2:34 pm : link
How old is that guy?
RE: Some goalie charts  
Mike in NY : 11/13/2019 2:35 pm : link
In comment 14678921 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
What a disaster Bobrovsky has been and they have him for what? 6 or 7 more years?

And they just drafted Spencer Knight at #12 (?) overall.




Quote:


Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey

1m
Goalie charts

Have a look here: https://chartinghockey.ca/daily-charts/daily-goalie-charts/

Goalies are hard because the position can be volatile. For example, Greiss, Kuemper, and Koskinen are in the top-five for goals saved above expectation so far this year.





I don't understand Florida. If you had Bobrovsky signed that long why do you draft Knight? Only possible explanation is that they hope they can sell him to Seattle in the Expansion Draft knowing that they will need to reach the cap floor. Why risk that and giving up further draft picks? If you wanted Bobrovsky longterm they could have selected Caufield, Krebs, Harley, or Heinola.
Man  
pjcas18 : 11/16/2019 8:36 pm : link
the Leafs are a disaster.

I don't think Babcock survives much longer.
RE: Man  
Mike in NY : 11/16/2019 8:42 pm : link
In comment 14681195 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
the Leafs are a disaster.

I don't think Babcock survives much longer.


Maybe they hire Sheldon Keefe who has long deserved an NHL gig
RE: RE: Man  
pjcas18 : 11/16/2019 8:46 pm : link
In comment 14681198 Mike in NY said:
Quote:
In comment 14681195 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


the Leafs are a disaster.

I don't think Babcock survives much longer.



Maybe they hire Sheldon Keefe who has long deserved an NHL gig

Yeah, that's the rumor, one of Dubas' first hires I guess.

He's the big name right now.

Eichel  
pjcas18 : 11/16/2019 9:58 pm : link
with 4 goals tonight. He's elevated his game.

oje of the best in the league easily. I hope NHL players play in the Olympics, I'd love to see him with Matthews.
Isles  
KDubbs : 11/16/2019 10:01 pm : link
Come back from 3 goal deficit with 13 mins left to keep the point streak alive! 13-0-1 what a ride
RE: Isles  
pjcas18 : 11/16/2019 10:03 pm : link
In comment 14681264 KDubbs said:
Quote:
Come back from 3 goal deficit with 13 mins left to keep the point streak alive! 13-0-1 what a ride


Barzal's shootout goal was filthy.
Around the world  
KDubbs : 11/16/2019 10:17 pm : link
Barzel can score now!
Link - ( New Window )
One Rangers fan  
pjcas18 : 11/17/2019 11:09 am : link
(Jay?) asked about MTL being interested in a NYR goalie.

I'm not sure the habs do anything in net.

Primeau just turned 20 in August. Shesterkin turns 24 in December.

Unless it's Hank, I think MTL rolls with Price, Kinkaid and eventual heir to Price - Cayden Primeau.

Quote:
Grant McCagg
@grantmccagg

16m
Among goalies who have appeared in at least seven AHL games this season, Primeau sits second in goals against average with a sterling 1.87 mark, and tied for fifth in save percentage at .934. Among rookie AHL goalies, he is first overall in both categories (7+ games played).




Islanders have a very good team (unfortunately).  
BrettNYG10 : 11/17/2019 11:40 am : link
I still don't know how the defense is SO good.

I've never bought into the Babcock hype. He's good, but Qunneville/Laviolette are better to me.
RE: Isles  
Metnut : 11/17/2019 11:40 am : link
In comment 14681264 KDubbs said:
Quote:
Come back from 3 goal deficit with 13 mins left to keep the point streak alive! 13-0-1 what a ride


Amazing game last night! Sounded like a lot of Isles fans in Philly.

Iím going to start a new Isles chat thread either today or tomorrow when I have time (or energy) to write out some detailed thoughts.
RE: RE: Isles  
Mike in NY : 11/17/2019 11:47 am : link
In comment 14681508 Metnut said:
Quote:
In comment 14681264 KDubbs said:


Quote:


Come back from 3 goal deficit with 13 mins left to keep the point streak alive! 13-0-1 what a ride



Amazing game last night! Sounded like a lot of Isles fans in Philly.

Iím going to start a new Isles chat thread either today or tomorrow when I have time (or energy) to write out some detailed thoughts.


Perhaps a certain Rangers/Penguins fan can give us a crowd breakdown
Not sure  
pjcas18 : 11/17/2019 11:50 am : link
how the NHL refs are instructed to handle injuries, but a guy taking a puck to the face seems like distress enough to me to blow the play dead.

video in the link below.



Link - ( New Window )
RE: Not sure  
Mike in NY : 11/17/2019 12:19 pm : link
In comment 14681512 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
how the NHL refs are instructed to handle injuries, but a guy taking a puck to the face seems like distress enough to me to blow the play dead.

video in the link below.

Link - ( New Window )


Refs were in a difficult position either way. If they blow play dead they have the wrath of Vancouver fans who were attacking with extra man. Considering it was a 2 goal game at that point I understand why they erred on the side they did.
Agree  
pjcas18 : 11/17/2019 12:56 pm : link
not an easy spot for the refs, but Petersson was motioning over to the bench to come on the ice and help Calvert.

I don't think either team would have complained with a whistle, but it's definitely a judgment call and I believe the guidelines are if the player is in "distress" - just seemed like he was to me.

Hey pjcas  
5BowlsSoon : 11/17/2019 5:09 pm : link
I saw the replay of the disallowed goal in the Habs Devils game last night. Do you know the rule? He didnít kick it in.....looked like he may have kneed it in or bodied it in. I wasnít sure the rule. My brother is still mad....I told him I have my own problems.
RE: Hey pjcas  
pjcas18 : 11/17/2019 5:22 pm : link
In comment 14681804 5BowlsSoon said:
Quote:
I saw the replay of the disallowed goal in the Habs Devils game last night. Do you know the rule? He didnít kick it in.....looked like he may have kneed it in or bodied it in. I wasnít sure the rule. My brother is still mad....I told him I have my own problems.


I don't know the rule. Danault definitely moved his hip/thigh and that's what pushed the puck over the goal line. but how that is a "distinct kicking motion" is definitely a gray area to me. The refs missed a lot on that play, especially with Hischier gloving the puck in the crease.

I have seen goals with people upright move their legs to redirect the puck as long as they don't kick it with their skate I always assumed it was ok.

but I won't pretend to know the rule.

I've never seen that called before.
Corey Schneider  
pjcas18 : 11/18/2019 11:17 am : link
to waivers.

seems like he was a top tier goalie not too long ago.
Habs  
pjcas18 : 11/18/2019 11:32 am : link
take a hit, Drouin and Byron to have surgery. Wrist and knee respectively.

Nick Suzuki - time to step up.

Jersperi Kotkaniemi - time to step up.

RE: Agree  
BrettNYG10 : 11/18/2019 12:19 pm : link
In comment 14681558 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
not an easy spot for the refs, but Petersson was motioning over to the bench to come on the ice and help Calvert.

I don't think either team would have complained with a whistle, but it's definitely a judgment call and I believe the guidelines are if the player is in "distress" - just seemed like he was to me.


That has to be blown dead. Refs make mistakes, but that was bad.
Byfield  
pjcas18 : 11/18/2019 4:17 pm : link
passing LafreniŤre for many.

Anakim called it.

this year top 10 will be STRONG.

Maybe even more.

Looking forward to the WJ tourneys. U18 should be great (though US will not be favored to medal this year).
Also  
pjcas18 : 11/18/2019 4:19 pm : link
my daughters team is playing a Lake Placid tourney the day after Thanksgiving.

I've never been. The kids love hockey tournaments because they stay in a hotel, run around like maniacs and have fun (as I did when I was their age), but they have two games on the '80 Olympics Russian game ice and I can't wait.

I've heard great things, but never been.

RE: One Rangers fan  
Jay in Toronto : 11/18/2019 4:34 pm : link
In comment 14681492 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
(Jay?) asked about MTL being interested in a NYR goalie.

I'm not sure the habs do anything in net.

Primeau just turned 20 in August. Shesterkin turns 24 in December.

Unless it's Hank, I think MTL rolls with Price, Kinkaid and eventual heir to Price - Cayden Primeau.



Quote:


Grant McCagg
@grantmccagg

16m
Among goalies who have appeared in at least seven AHL games this season, Primeau sits second in goals against average with a sterling 1.87 mark, and tied for fifth in save percentage at .934. Among rookie AHL goalies, he is first overall in both categories (7+ games played).





Yeah it was me. I read somewhere (probably >2 days ago, too long to remember) that the Habs are looking for a back-up.

I wonder if we are moving to a 2-goalie system -- which would be interesting come playoff time.
Don't think it's been noted  
Jay in Toronto : 11/18/2019 4:39 pm : link
but Lias sent down.

Makes sense to me, since Quinn is mostly going with three lines.

Hopefully he get ice time with decent wingers and pulls a Chytl.
RE: Don't think it's been noted  
pjcas18 : 11/18/2019 4:41 pm : link
In comment 14682955 Jay in Toronto said:
Quote:
but Lias sent down.

Makes sense to me, since Quinn is mostly going with three lines.

Hopefully he get ice time with decent wingers and pulls a Chytl.


noted in the Rangers thread. I also read they might move him to wing. I'm not an expert, but I think that would be a bad move. Part of his game is IQ and defense, you are removing a lot of his value (or potential) IMO by making him a wing.
LA Kings epic troll of Arizona Coyotes  
pjcas18 : 11/19/2019 10:03 am : link
Quote:
LA Kings
@LAKings
Congrats to the @ArizonaCoyotes
on putting up their first-ever banner
👏


Crazy scene in Caps Ducks  
pjcas18 : 11/19/2019 1:08 pm : link
last night.

Caps score a goal, line brawl (practically) ensues behind Ducks goal. Garnet Hathaway is taking it to Eric Gubrandson.

Ref separates the players as the melee winds down and is holding them by the jerseys. While the ref was holding them Gubrandson sucker punched Hathaway. In retaliation Hathaway visibly spit at Gubrandson.

Hathaway is taking a lot of shit, but man, Gubrandson was at least as bad. Who sucker punches someone when the ref is holding them. I think Gubrandson is pissed because Hathaway got the better of him.

Hathaway was of course wrong for spitting at a player, but Gubrandson kind of deserved it.
Another come from behind win  
KDubbs : 11/19/2019 9:57 pm : link
For the Isles! 14-0-1...no words.
RE: Another come from behind win  
pjcas18 : 11/20/2019 12:35 pm : link
In comment 14684204 KDubbs said:
Quote:
For the Isles! 14-0-1...no words.


Amazing.
Speaking of amazing  
pjcas18 : 11/20/2019 12:38 pm : link
check out this story linked below.

It is about one of the hockey players paralyzed in the Humboldt Broncos bus crash in 2018.

He had some surgerical procedure done in Thailand that was supposed to simulate nerve impulse and in turn influence movement in his legs.

In this link he's seen taking his first steps.


Link - ( New Window )
RE: RE: Another come from behind win  
JayBinQueens : 11/20/2019 12:42 pm : link
In comment 14684710 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14684204 KDubbs said:


Quote:


For the Isles! 14-0-1...no words.



Amazing.

I think it's more amazing the Isles still haven't been able to catch the Capitals with this run
RE: Speaking of amazing  
JayBinQueens : 11/20/2019 12:42 pm : link
In comment 14684715 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
check out this story linked below.

It is about one of the hockey players paralyzed in the Humboldt Broncos bus crash in 2018.

He had some surgerical procedure done in Thailand that was supposed to simulate nerve impulse and in turn influence movement in his legs.

In this link he's seen taking his first steps.
Link - ( New Window )

Definitely great news. I wonder how many more people will try the same route now
Also  
pjcas18 : 11/20/2019 12:44 pm : link
seems like the Sabres transformation back into a pumpkin has begun. Hopefully MAB doesn't accuse them of tanking.

I'm pretty sure there is nothing intentional going on.

And how far as Leon Drsisaitl come? he was really underappreciated, then questions about "can he drive his own line" (resulted in a 105 point season) to he's one of the best in the game. He's got almost a 2 PPG pace going. And I'd say his 21.6 shooting % is unsustainable, but that's exactly what he shot last year when he netted 50 goals.

the duo of McDavid and Draisaitl may wind up as iconic as Crosby and Malkin.

Just need to turn individual dominance to team wins (easier said than done, though the Oilers are in fact winning right now.
RE: RE: Speaking of amazing  
pjcas18 : 11/20/2019 12:45 pm : link
In comment 14684718 JayBinQueens said:
Quote:
In comment 14684715 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


check out this story linked below.

It is about one of the hockey players paralyzed in the Humboldt Broncos bus crash in 2018.

He had some surgerical procedure done in Thailand that was supposed to simulate nerve impulse and in turn influence movement in his legs.

In this link he's seen taking his first steps.
Link - ( New Window )


Definitely great news. I wonder how many more people will try the same route now


I'm unclear why he had to go to Thailand. Not sure if it was experimental or not approved by the FDA? Also, I think it was very expensive, but if it works my opinion is it should be available to anyone who has a similar diagnosis and profile.
RE: RE: RE: Speaking of amazing  
Mike in NY : 11/20/2019 2:07 pm : link
In comment 14684725 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14684718 JayBinQueens said:


Quote:


In comment 14684715 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


check out this story linked below.

It is about one of the hockey players paralyzed in the Humboldt Broncos bus crash in 2018.

He had some surgerical procedure done in Thailand that was supposed to simulate nerve impulse and in turn influence movement in his legs.

In this link he's seen taking his first steps.
Link - ( New Window )


Definitely great news. I wonder how many more people will try the same route now



I'm unclear why he had to go to Thailand. Not sure if it was experimental or not approved by the FDA? Also, I think it was very expensive, but if it works my opinion is it should be available to anyone who has a similar diagnosis and profile.


Considering the family was in Canada, there might have been a cost issue in the United States even though you would think a Doctor/hospital would want this sort of good press
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