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A few notes on the NFC East and draft order

ray in arlington : 10/14/2019 4:29 pm
NFC East
DAL 3-3
PHI 3-3
NYG 2-4
WAS 1-5

If the Giants beat ARI, it means that they would lose the common opponents tiebreak to DAL and/or PHI. To win division by tiebreak, they would have to win a tiebreak through head-to-head (not possible in 2-way tie with DAL) or having a better division record.

Regarding the draft, the Giants peer group at 2-4 is large (8 teams). The Giants are 9th if we estimate the final SOS based on adding up the games of their 16 opponents. After tonight the Giants 16 opponents (the division teams count twice) will be 44-47 (.484). At one point it was 17-12 but DAL and PHI started to lose games.
Note that there are a number of games like tonight that contribute a 1-1 to the SOS, pulling it towards .500

Note that if NYG ended up in a tie with WAS (yuk), the
Giants would almost certainly pick ahead of WAS, since
in the non-common games WAS is 9-2 and NYG are 4.5-7.5.(The NYG-WAS game results do not affect draft tiebreak).





You need a hobby  
djstat : 10/14/2019 4:35 pm : link
Too early to worry about either
ray  
JonC : 10/14/2019 4:35 pm : link
You are a madman.
Your good at what youdo  
superspynyg : 10/14/2019 4:39 pm : link
But itís way too early for draft order. Wait till week 12.
Thanks Ray!  
Stan in LA : 10/14/2019 4:44 pm : link
Good info.
Fun  
Big Blue '56 : 10/14/2019 4:52 pm : link
stuff Ray.
Good verbal example of the meaning of the word  
NYRiese : 10/14/2019 4:52 pm : link
peer.
For football people, that is.
Love these posts...  
Metnut : 10/14/2019 4:54 pm : link
you're a BBI asset Ray!
RE: Fun  
ray in arlington : 10/14/2019 4:56 pm : link
In comment 14628741 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
stuff Ray.


Thank you BB. Been 15 years since you had your "Coughlin 1" jersey up in Albany. (Am I right about that?)
I am confuse.....why would beating arizona  
George from PA : 10/14/2019 4:58 pm : link
Would lose a tiebreak in playoff hunt?


I understand the affect it would have losing for draft order
RE: I am confuse.....why would beating arizona  
ray in arlington : 10/14/2019 5:04 pm : link
In comment 14628750 George from PA said:
Quote:
Would lose a tiebreak in playoff hunt?


I understand the affect it would have losing for draft order


It puts NYG at 2-0 in the two non-common games. DAL and PHI are 0-1 in those games. Since that clinches a better record for the Giants in non-common games, they have to be worse in the common games.

Note that the non-common games (TB and ARI this year) are the "worst wins" from a division tiebreak perspective.
RE: RE: Fun  
Big Blue '56 : 10/14/2019 5:05 pm : link
In comment 14628747 ray in arlington said:
Quote:
In comment 14628741 Big Blue '56 said:


Quote:


stuff Ray.



Thank you BB. Been 15 years since you had your "Coughlin 1" jersey up in Albany. (Am I right about that?)


Yup.
I presuming...you are transposing it  
George from PA : 10/14/2019 5:42 pm : link
If their records are tied...(if being better in non common games)....means they are worse in common games....

Which what really drives the tie break. Correct?
RE: I presuming...you are transposing it  
ray in arlington : 10/14/2019 5:47 pm : link
In comment 14628785 George from PA said:
Quote:
If their records are tied...(if being better in non common games)....means they are worse in common games....

Which what really drives the tie break. Correct?


Not seeing a problem with what I wrote in this thread, but sometimes I do slip up. (one reason I like to put out some of this early). When I write about a tiebreak I assume we are applying it to a situation where the teams have the same record. I don't consider whether a team could win or lose a tiebreak outside of a tie situation.
Ray  
George from PA : 10/14/2019 6:14 pm : link
It is not that you said anything wrong....

But winning non-common games does not actually hurt....it just implies that one's record in common games is worse....which IS the Tie Breaker.....if teams end up with sames record.
RE: Ray  
ray in arlington : 10/14/2019 6:21 pm : link
In comment 14628804 George from PA said:
Quote:
It is not that you said anything wrong....

But winning non-common games does not actually hurt....it just implies that one's record in common games is worse....which IS the Tie Breaker.....if teams end up with sames record.


Yes.
Great info, keep it coming  
PatersonPlank : 10/14/2019 6:25 pm : link
.
Always good info Ray  
GiantsRage2007 : 10/14/2019 7:00 pm : link
I pray for the day we're discussing playoff seedings instead of draft order :-)
Next year Ray will gave this info out before week 1...  
Capt. Don : 10/14/2019 7:08 pm : link
.
For everyone saying itís too early  
Leg of Theismann : 10/15/2019 3:35 am : link
You all should really think about this and realize that ray has done an amazing job of simplifying things for the rest of the season. If the Giants beat the Cardinals (which of course weíre all hoping for and know they have to if we want any shot at making the playoffs most likely) that means that NYG will almost certainly lose a tiebreak with either Dallas or Philly if tied at the end of the season. Thatís incredibly deflating to realize we more than likely need to beat Philly twice to hold a tiebreak with them, and/or need to both beat Dallas and hope Dallas ends up 3-3 or worse in the division (I.e. lost to the Skins or get swept by Philly).

In other words, for all of you out there saying ď9 wins can win the divisionĒ etc., itís extremely unlikely that the Giants would win a tie break with either the Eagles or Cowboys at 9-7. In all likelihood itís going to require the Giants win 10 if the eagles and cowboys win 9, or even have to win 11 if EITHER the eagles or cowboys get to 10 wins. Itís really looking like all things considered the Giants can miraculously finis 10-6 and still have a very high likelihood of missing the playoffs. Thatís pretty disheartening sitting at 2-4.

Ray let me know if you think Iím misinterpreting incorrectly or not giving a clear view of the probabilities.
Yep.....tie breaker will be unlikely. Wild card unlikely at 9-7  
George from PA : 10/15/2019 5:56 am : link
And one of the "easy" game became harder....Jets.

Arizona is a must win
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