I am having a hard time understanding how the analytics of 162 game season correlates to 5 or 7 game playoff series. I believe the playoffs are where the "real" managers have to prove themselves. When you have one game or even one at bat you sometimes need to go with your gut. Sometimes the playoffs are too big a stage for certain players. Example, going to Ottavino in recent weeks scares the hell out of me. He just doesn't seem to the have the confidence needed at this time of the year. I'm not really singling him out but he is one that comes to mind.
Rant over.
him batting third was idiotic. Him not bunting was almost as dumb
I do believe over the past few years sabermetrics has evolved to take into consideration and value more recent performance but in the end, there's only so much a number can tell you to help you in such a small amount of games per series.
In the playoffs, the numbers are more like guides than actual answers. Making the gutsy move while understanding your players' clutch genes are much bigger factors.
You also have to consider that during 162 games, you're playing mostly mediocre talent, while in the playoffs you're competing against the cream of the crop. That in itself should make most data more or less useless.
Then we had the problem of working the problem where there wasn't any time for surveillance. Instead of 1000 "looks", we got 7. So we had to do the best we could. What we ended up with was completely different (and in some ways) contradictory from our original approach. But it still moved the needle to our benefit.
When it comes to the A's, I think judgment should be tempered somewhat. If I worked for the A's and told them they aren't going to get it done in a short series and the best course of action for winning it all is to sign Max Scherzer and Steven Strasburg, that wouldn't be very useful to them.
this is the correct answer. A playoff series is a small sample. 162 is a large sample. As fans we create narratives that people perform under pressure or about a money player.. it's all BS. I look at players and teams as random generators. If a team is truly better than another team in a series they are what? a 70% chance at best.. well 30% winners some in all the time.. even back to back to back. It doesn't mean the 30% team is BETTER than the 70% team. But fans and sportswriters fall all over themselves writing stories that they were money or better or clutch..