1. Paxton can show up when it counts. He showed us something with that 6 IP 1 R gem.
2. DJ is worth extending. MVP. 'nough said.
3. Tanaka is still the man in the post season.
4. Didi is clutch at times and disappears off the face of the earth at others. Do his glove and Yankee stadium swing make him worthwhile as a building block?
(My answer: I'm really ambivalent on Didi which makes me lean no off the bat. (Pardon the pun.) But great shortstops don't grow on trees. For him personally Yankee Stadium is a boon. He should consider a more team friendly deal to stay purely for numbers reasons. And the FO should value him more than others for the same reason. Ultimately, I think stay is a smart move for both sides.)
5. Which ace should we target in FA?
(My answer: Sevy, Tanaka, and Paxton is a fine front end of the rotation. But WAS and HOU both show the power of SP. Gerrit Cole is a coup de grace type move to make on the Stros. We could always use another ace especially one that denies the Stros that same asset. It's #ColeSZN. (Sorry Greg.))
6. Which bats/BP should we target in FA?
(My answer: none come to mind. I'd love to see Cash have more success dumpster diving in some ways, but another DJ would be awesome.)
7. I love Hicks. Just sayin'.
8. Which of the unlikely stars of 2019 is a guy to retain? Maybin? Tauchman? To me, Urshela is the obvious top choice. We needed a glove at 3rd. But with Miggy coming back...
Feel free to respond or add your own thoughts or reactions.
It's over. But it was a fun team to watch. They had a savage run and Gardy gave us some comic relief for the bad umping we endured.
Onward and upward to 2020. And until then, go Nats.
LOL, the levity never ceases on BBI.
Yeah, ok, WTH that means. Maybe you can explain instead of throwing out generalities. If you disagree with Cashman's choices, that is fine, but at least say what he should do better.
Agree with those who say move on from Didi, Encarnacion, and Gardner. Move Gleybar to SS and DJ to 2B.
I'm a believer in Urshela, but would not part with Andujar. Andujar is a natural hitter. He can be the every day DH and also see time at 3B and maybe 1B/RF as well.
Domingo German and Frazier can top the list of trade bait and maybe Loaisiga too.
I think they need to grin and bear it with Stanton as the every day LF and part-time DH. Tauchman can be the 4th OF. Given Stanton's and Hicks's injury histories (Judge too kind of), he will see plenty of action.
At 1B, Voit is not ideal, but worth keeping around. His BA took a beating this year, but his OBP held up okay. I like Ford (and his lefty bat) as part of a platoon there. If they don't believe in Ford, they should trade him because his trade value may never be better than it is right now.
Don't sleep on Jordan Montgomery as the 5th starter. He could come back stronger than he left us.
the guys that didn't do that sucked... and were why we lost the series. that is Sanchez, EE, Stanton, Judge unfortunately.
if the players cant adapt in the postseason away from launch baseball... that is a problem.
They missed Betances a ton as well- first time it showed up massively
I think Chapman will opt out. So do they what and see what market is? If he goes, do they re-sign Betances? Or, do they sign both or let both walk(less likely)?
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It's over your head.
Yeah, ok, WTH that means. Maybe you can explain instead of throwing out generalities. If you disagree with Cashman's choices, that is fine, but at least say what he should do better.
Here is an example, be careful with long term deals.
Giving Ellsbury a long term deal, when you already have a player with a very similar skill set, not smart.
Taking on Stanton's contract, when you have a player with a similar skill set, not smart.
And finally, giving a 7 year deal to Hicks when he's been less than durable, obviously also not smart.
I recall Cash saying to Hicks after the deal,
'I am betting on you'...looks like he is losing that bet.
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In comment 14638391 arniefez said:
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It's over your head.
Yeah, ok, WTH that means. Maybe you can explain instead of throwing out generalities. If you disagree with Cashman's choices, that is fine, but at least say what he should do better.
.
Here is an example, be careful with long term deals.
Giving Ellsbury a long term deal, when you already have a player with a very similar skill set, not smart.
Taking on Stanton's contract, when you have a player with a similar skill set, not smart.
And finally, giving a 7 year deal to Hicks when he's been less than durable, obviously also not smart.
I recall Cash saying to Hicks after the deal,
'I am betting on you'...looks like he is losing that bet.
Yes, cannot argue with Ellsbury when Gardner was better in every aspect except power. Everyone knew that was a clinker from the get go...
Stanton - I do not remember him hurt this much, but the salary thing was crazy, so yeah I can agree.
Hicks - meh, maybe, except he's less problematic and costly. I hold out hope with him. And he did look pretty good in the ALCS.
But I dislike anything over 5 years unless the player is under 25...
1 - let Didi walk barring an obscenely team-friendly deal.
2 - decline the option on Edwin.
3 - even if it requires paying down some of the $17M 2020 salary, trade Happ.
4 - extend Gleyber -- use the Acuna contract as a guideline, might need to pay a little bit more. Acuna is the better player but that contract was robbery.
5 - I'm not saying they shouldn't go hard for Cole, but I'm just not getting my hopes up. Other SP names that I am a fan of to build some more depth in the rotation -- Wheeler, Ryu, Keuchel. Not aces, just guys I like depending on price. Need to build reliable depth.
6. Some veteran bats that I'd be interested in on a 1-2 year deal if they want to play in NY -- Josh Donaldson, Jose Abreu, Justin Smoak, Brian Dozier. After some of the at-bats I've seen in the last couple of weeks, I've got a real hard on for a good approach at this point. Not saying i'd pay through the nose for these guys. Price/term have to be reasonable or better.
7. If they do move on from Didi and don't go after one of the sexier names rumored to be available in the trade market (Lindor, Story), Jose Iglesias is a guy I've always liked. Outstanding defender. Zero power, but puts the ball in play. Likely not expensive at all.
I think Chapman will opt out. So do they what and see what market is? If he goes, do they re-sign Betances? Or, do they sign both or let both walk(less likely)?
Considering that Chapman returned to the Yankees post-trade, which 99.9% of players would never do, I think he likes the Yankees a lot. I'm talking out of my ass a bit, but I think he opts out, but doesn't hold the Yankees over a barrel nor does he really have the leverage to. The market for closers isn't great. Kimbrel held out just to get less than what Chapman currently makes.
I think Chappy gets an extra year tacked onto the 2 he already has.
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with Chapman and Betances?
I think Chapman will opt out. So do they what and see what market is? If he goes, do they re-sign Betances? Or, do they sign both or let both walk(less likely)?
Considering that Chapman returned to the Yankees post-trade, which 99.9% of players would never do, I think he likes the Yankees a lot. I'm talking out of my ass a bit, but I think he opts out, but doesn't hold the Yankees over a barrel nor does he really have the leverage to. The market for closers isn't great. Kimbrel held out just to get less than what Chapman currently makes.
I think Chappy gets an extra year tacked onto the 2 he already has.
shock - we are all talking out our asses....good point on Chappy. Despite the protestations of his slider use against Altuve, he is working to get past his sole use of the FB. And that slider is getting better and better. Remember that Otto gave up the HR to Springer on a cement mixer and that is his best pitch.
2 years $30M is fair value, IMO. I don't know how his agent could be confident that he gets much more after what we saw in the market last year.
I'd rather live with Britton/Kahnle/Ottavino and try to re-sign Betances than get over the skis on Chapman through age 35 at a big number.
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1. No matter the cost, move Stanton.
2. Bye bye, EE, thanks for the regular season help
3. Bye bye, Bird(ie)...no use bringing him in. Trade him or release him.
4. Trade Voit or accept that he'll never be a real difference maker. He's regressed to his mean and he is exactly what he is now, low ceiling, high floor.
5. Gio at third, Miggy at SS, Gleybor at second, and DJLM at 1st. Let Didi go unless he comes in at a steep discount. He's going to be 30, and his slumps are getting longer in duration.
No one is trading for Stanton. He has an opt out coming up.
Andujar at SS would be a disaster. He couldnt handle fielding 3B. Not going to happen but if you move him and dont sign Didi, Andujar to 1B, DJ to 2B, Gleybar to SS and Gio at 3B.
You're absolutely right about Miggy...I forgot he was bad at 3B. Your lineup looks much better, thanks.
I think Chapman will opt out. So do they what and see what market is? If he goes, do they re-sign Betances? Or, do they sign both or let both walk(less likely)?
Let them both walk.
They've been great and all that, but both are now on the wrong side of 30, and both rely on power pitching- a skill that declines as you pass the early-mid 30's.
I would let Didi walk as well. I think their best offensive and defensive middle INF has Gleybar at SS and DJ at 2B.
Make qualifying offers to Didi and Chapman. Didi MIGHT accept to try and rebuild value- but given that there are no other meaningful SS on the FA market, he might test his luck. Chapman most likely declines to get one last big payday.
I have been saying this for months now, but don't sleep on the Dodgers calling the Yanks about Stanton. They have OF and middle of the lineup issues. Stanton helps with both. He also is not excessively damaging to the luxury tax- he only counts for $22M after the $3M per from the Marlins is included- a bargain in today's game.
While Cole would be a great get, I don't think the Yanks are the favorites there- the West Coast teams might have a better shot. I think examining trades might be the best chance to find a top SP.
As a general matter, it will be interesting to see which way MLB goes with the baseball. Will they go back to the pre-2018 model or stick with the 2019 HR ball? If they bow to pressure and go back to the old model, I think that SP like Happ and Tanaka benefit from the change.
If MLB sticks with the new ball, it might be a better move to invest in power pitching.
If someone is taking Stanton off of NYY's hands, the return is probably closer to zero than it is to a player like Kershaw.
The primary consideration coming back is the payroll flexibility you regain. The no trade clause is a game changer -- if he's willing to waive for that team, that team knows they're pretty much the only game in town.
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And yes Stanton to LAD is a real possibility. After getting booed again, he may have had enough of the Bronx. I think even the LAA are a possibility. Can't say I would be disappointed if he were traded. Would the Dodgers consider Kershaw in a trade as salary dump? Not that I am a fan, but he isn't chopped liver.
If someone is taking Stanton off of NYY's hands, the return is probably closer to zero than it is to a player like Kershaw.
The primary consideration coming back is the payroll flexibility you regain. The no trade clause is a game changer -- if he's willing to waive for that team, that team knows they're pretty much the only game in town.
Ha, I can dream. You are likely right, but maybe they want Kershaw gone. Not sure what his money is, and I know Stanton is way more, but it does drop their payroll and I'd bet the Yanks eat some salary too.
I think the most interesting thing to watch this winter is if he adjusts his philosophy on what is valuable. We know what he has valued to this point and I think he's been wrong and has been proven wrong.
How are you determining what you think he doesn't find valuable vs its effect on the luxury tax? If the luxury tax is a non-negotiable, which by ever single report it is, then that is going to greatly effect what's deemed "valuable".
And similar to the Giants whiffing on their OL picks, the Yankees front end starting pitching is something they've tried continuously to upgrade many different ways and sometimes they have been complete failures.
a) Lots of headlines and quotes about in for Cole to drive the price up for others?
b) Lay low and lots of quotes about cost control and then swoop in at the last minute if all other cost control measures work:
- Judge and Torres and DJ signed to acceptable long term contracts
- Chapman and Betances to risk acceptable contracts
- Gardner either in or out at an acceptable number
- Didi at an acceptable number or a replacement
- EE paid $5M as a thank you
- Hicks situation clarified ( in fact this sets up the ask or not on Gardner)
- Add one more BP pitcher
- Inquire loosely at another SP
Total all that and project it out 8 years. Then consider Cole if it fits. Remember 8 years is exactly what we fans don't like about Stantons contract and Ellsbury's contract. Exactly.
So to me that's the decision tree sequence that sets up Job 1: Consider adding a SP at a price that fits
Job 2: Give Stanton and Judge and Sanchez clear clear off season objectives on their approaches and physical emphasis on flexibility. and weight when it comes to Sanchez
Step 3: Have solid back up plans for Hicks and SS and Sanchez and Betances and one other SP and one other BP arms
Depth got us to the playoffs ...this season. Those positions are where depth is most likely needed. SS, Catcher, CF, Sp and BP.
Do we have answers? Yes more than likely, but id over prepare at C and BP.
I am in favor of re signing Romine for either Gary or Romine have trade value if Sanchez hits and Higgy gets slightly better as an offensive player
Step 4: where there is a debate slant defense and depth at C, SS, CF
Step 5: Stay with the BP strategy. IF the BP was one man stronger we could have offset our hitting performance in one or two games
Step 6: Frazier: In one five minute observation with film clips, Kenny Singleton exposed Frazier as a hitter too easy for elite pitchers. His legs. He showed that he did not have a set of habits that led to solid steady platform for hitting. Too many different set points and moving parts such that so far his is fortunate that wrists and forearms rescue him against mistakes when he is hot. Prone to slumps due to a lack of a repeatable platform and prone to not catch elite pitches. At his age a limiting factor. Add defensive limitations. What imo, we are left with is a useful MLB player but not on an Astro beating playoff series player.
What do the Yankees have to trade with to get these goals accomplished?
IMo, one of the catchers, German and Frazier and at a lesser trade value, some minor leaguers.
Betances, Frazier, Gary, Chapman, Bird, Florial are all below market trade value until June of next year ( and even then some only if back up solutions are found)
What players can be bigger contributors if healthy next year? Fortunately the list is long:
Andujar, Sevy, Betances, Stanton, Judge, Gary, Voit, Hicks
If half of those get better in 2020, is that enough to overcome the Astros?
I don't think so, they need more flexible hitters and another SP and another BP. Interesting off season, especially because I don't think they spend on another big contract for a SP.
For a variety of reasons I don't think the Yankees are finished coming out of ST.
I think late in ST and up to the trade deadline is much more likely next year than this year to show the team we have for the playoffs next year
Didi and Gardner can likely walk if they find better money elsewhere (I see Gardner somehow staying). Same goes for Chapman. EE can go.
Voit/Ford at 1st/DH. DJ 2nd. Gleyber SS although he hasn't shown he deserves it with some of his recent fielding. Urshela/Andujar at 3rd with Andujar likely DHing some. Gary returns for better or worse. Tauch has to be on the roster in that outfield group. If there's an out for Stanton I would take it at this point, but I doubt it happens.
Then there's starting pitching. I'm all for throwing the money at Cole or whoever, but its like they are cursed. Any SP they bring in has problems. At least we have Tanaka, Paxton, and Sevy to build on. German should not return. We are already carrying Chapman and its just too bad of a look.
Thanks Greg - about what I thought. They hit homers, the Yanks did not.
Yanks line .214/.289/.383/.673
So the Yankees out hit the Astos - but the Astro hit the big homers.
Crooked numbers! I remember Tom Seaver saying something like - rarely do 1 run HRs beat a team and good pitchers give up HRs because they are around the plate.
Game 2 was huge. An inability to plate just one more run the rest of that game was the difference between going home up 2-0 and going home split with Cole looming
Astros certainly got plenty of fortunate bounces and breaks, too, I'll say that much.
Absolutely. Everyone claiming the Yanks were out pitched. Not so.
great point. Even just expected arbitration numbers for the eligible guys will have the yankees somewhere around/above the $208 first luxtax level.
and that's assuming:
No Gardner
No Didi
No Romine
No Betances
Decline option on Edwin
Not taking care of Judge or Torres long-term right now.
The way I see it, anyone with their heart set on Cole should be praying for a Chapman opt-out and that they find some poor bastard to take on Happ.
Angels....
IDK about that, Charlie Morton had his best year as a pro in TB after two very good years in Houston.
Astros certainly got plenty of fortunate bounces and breaks, too, I'll say that much.
That and Brantley's catch (not the same I know, no lucky bounce, but a play that could easily have backfired big time on him) really hurt.
Think fast, Randal - what did the Astros hit in this series? Don't look up the numbers, just give me your best guess.
Sevy?
Paxton?
Tanaka?
German?
Robertson?
CC? ( after his career he would object if he thought Rothschild was incompetent? he speaks out without any fear on every other subject)
Chapman?
am I right that Gray was the only guy that has done better (for a year) in another set of parks?
perhaps the failure is in minor league development? or our sample size is not large enough? Or the slots the Yankees drew from 5 and six years ago aren't conducive to turning into Aces?
Are there more than 8 Ace SP in MLB?
Ron Guidry, Scott Kamieneki, Andy Pettite, Chein Ming Wang, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova and Luis Severino. Possibly Montgomery and German may one day be added to that list. Six other Yankee farm hands were successful primarily for other teams:
Doc Medich, Jim Beattie, Jim Deshalis, Doug Drabek, Al Lieter, Brian Boehringer and Scott McGregor.
Obviously we've done better with relief pitchers, but there is obviously something wrong with a system that has produced only 13 MLB starting pitchers in just under half a century. Almost as damning, when was the last time the Yanks acquired a starting pitching prospect who improved here as a starting pitcher ? If Paxton becomes a star, he may be the first. Its true that we've acquired stars who performed such as Sabathia and Tanaka, but how many pitchers have we acquired who flopped ? More than I can remember, but some of the recent ones are Gray, Eovaldi and Pineda.
So you did hear right. I must have missed it.
FWIW, Hicks said he will not do the surgery.
Hicks at Crossroads - ( New Window )
DN addresses the issue because of an article in 12UP promoting a Stanton trade.
[quote]The article seems to be written by a Yankees fan who wants to get rid of their disappointing player and doesn’t know how the Dodgers operate. The Dodgers absolutely have the firepower to get the deal done but that doesn’t make them a realistic landing spot.
If the Dodgers weren’t willing to sign Bryce Harper to a long-term deal in the offseason, they aren’t trading top prospects and locking themselves into that deal for an older player. Especially when the player has serious health concerns. . ..
If the Dodgers want to make a splash this off-season, they could just sign Gerritt Cole or Anthony Rendon, who are both much better players and fit the roster....
The only way a Stanton trade could work is if the Yankees eat most of his salary and take back A.J. Pollock. Even then, it’s still a stretch because Friedman and the Dodgers hate long-term deals.
It is very safe to say that Stanton won’t be a Dodger in the near future.[quote]
Although the article doesn't say spell it out, the reason the Dodgers might like to get out of A.J. Pollack's contract is that their outfield "issue" going into 2020 is that they already project to have four starters for the three spots: Bellinger, Pederson, Pollack and Alex Verdugo, who emerged while Pollack was on injury list.
Forget the Dodgers for GS.
dodger nation - ( New Window )
DN addresses the issue because of an article in 12UP promoting a Stanton trade.
If the Dodgers weren’t willing to sign Bryce Harper to a long-term deal in the offseason, they aren’t trading top prospects and locking themselves into that deal for an older player. Especially when the player has serious health concerns. . ..
If the Dodgers want to make a splash this off-season, they could just sign Gerritt Cole or Anthony Rendon, who are both much better players and fit the roster....
The only way a Stanton trade could work is if the Yankees eat most of his salary and take back A.J. Pollock. Even then, it’s still a stretch because Friedman and the Dodgers hate long-term deals.
It is very safe to say that Stanton won’t be a Dodger in the near future.
Although the article doesn't say spell it out, the reason the Dodgers might like to get out of A.J. Pollack's contract is that their outfield "issue" going into 2020 is that they already project to have four starters for the three spots: Bellinger, Pederson, Pollack and Alex Verdugo, who emerged while Pollack was on injury list.
Forget the Dodgers for GS.
The Angels alongside Trout would be a good fit. I would still like to see Stanton healthy with the Yanks.