Barring the unforeseen the Giants will be entering this offseason with a top 5-ish draft pick and some money to spend in the free agent market. In that sense, we aren't all that far off from where we were in January 2018: a bad football team with opportunities for growth on the horizon.
However, there's one key difference between January 2018 and January 2020 - this time the decisions look like they'll be made in large part by two men squarely on the hot seat: Gettleman and Shurmur. Given their tenuous job situation, can we expect them to avoid a short term splurge at the expense of the long term?
When I think about this, there's a timeline that keeps playing out in my head, and it goes like this:
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December 2019
- Giants finish 5-11, both Gettleman and Shurmur keep their jobs
January-May 2020
-Giants spend big bucks to sign FAs (think Shaq Barrett, Jadeveon Clowney, Jack Conklin, AJ Green, Amari Cooper). -They also don't consider drafting a QB after all, they just drafted Jones
Fall 2020
- under Shurmur's inept coaching the Giants sputter to another 5-11 season
January 2021
- Gettleman and Shurmur are fired
- New GM and head coach are hired
January-May 2021
- New GM and head coach commence purging roster of contracts they don't want, resulting in significant dead money on cap
- New GM and head coach decide they don't like Daniel Jones and want their own QB
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Going through that scenario, the obvious question arises: why didn't we just fire Gettleman and Shurmur in January 2020?
Unless you believe that Shurmur can coach a team to something greater than 5-11, this story ends with Gettleman and Shurmur being fired. So why allow them the opportunity to make a bunch of desperate decisions in January-May 2020?
Gettleman will not get canned yet is my guess but his free agency moves need to improve. We make the signings GoTerps listed and get a good hc and have a decent draft this team could be 10-6 or better.
If Gettleman is willing to part ways with players so easily, he should be willing to part ways with coaches. Right?
But I think we all fear the egos of ownership and management getting in the way.
Gettlemans not going anywhere for the next 5 yrs unless he retires or god forbid........
If we fire Shumur but keep Gettleman, we're now limiting our head coaching pool to guys interested in working under Gettleman, who might be gone in a year if things go badly.
It has to be Shurmur and Gettleman, not one or the other.
If we're making a complete overhaul I'd say we're more than likely punting on Jones. Is this wise? I don't know the answer but I think it needs to be in consideration.
Fire the assistants, which buys Shurmur another year (or two) all to get back to this same point in time when a lot of us realize Shurmur isn't the solution.
And to be honest,
Not even sure the HC is on the hot seat....leading offense with a rookie QB.
The fans create a premise....that is based totally on speculation.
The defensive coaches might be feeling some heat.....depending on Shummur views that side of the ball.
That said, if he finishes without the players quitting he gets 2020. I would prefer a coach that can motivate and develop players. I would like coordinators that can give us a schematic advantage on some Sundays. I want some games where the coordinators find something that opposing teams have no answer for once in while.
I wasn't suggesting they'll sign all those guys - just that those are some names they may be in the market for.
This is what I think is the most likely scenario. This is how Mara likes to operate. Sweeping, grandiose statements about needing to win followed by minor, incremental changes slowly over time.
The coordinators likely go at the end of 2019. Shurmur goes in 2020. Gettleman has to 2021. I'm not suggesting this is the right way to go (I don't believe it is), but it is what I expect from this owner.
That said, I have a very hard time believing that John Mara is going to fire a head coach after 2 seasons after firing a head coach after 2 seasons. Hell, I'm not even convinced Mara would have definitely fired McAdoo if not for the Eli-Geno Smith stuff.
I'm not saying this applies here, but when understanding how Mara works you have to realize that he came an inch away from firing a then embattled and yet to be 2-time Super Bowl winning head coach just one offseason before that head coach went on to win the first of the 2. Obviously Tom Coughlin can coach circles around Pat Shurmur, but that is important to remember in trying to understand why Mara is reluctant to give in to cries for change.
My hope for this season was that the Giants got a solid feel for Jones' potential. They will certainly have a large sample size by year's end, I would hope that is enough to know what they have under center. I would like to see Jones make a sizeable jump by December.
My guess is that if any wholesale adjustment occurs, it will take place at the end of the 2020 season, when the Giants would move on from Jones, PS, and DG at once. But that also seems unlikely.
Shurmur's offense is very good, it's resulted in a lot of positive outcomes for this team from a statistical perspective. He's made some mistakes, but with a rookie QB I believe he's the right guy in the right place to develop him and get him to be a consistent winner.
What is much, much more likely, is that next season, and even late this season, you will see the Giants play better, and the Giants have a good chance of going 9-7 or better next year, when Gettleman has another offseason to address the holes on this roster, and Jones is a bit more seasoned and the game slows down a bit for him. Then all this hand-wringing will be moot and you will be enjoying the product on the field more.
I'm not writing off Jones. I'm saying that when (not if) Gettleman and Shurmur are fired there is a decent chance their successors may want to move in a different direction at quarterback. What if we're in the running for Trevor Lawrence in the 2021 draft after Shumur leads us to another bad year in 2020? Are we supposed to pass on him because we have Jones?
If we fire Shumur but keep Gettleman, we're now limiting our head coaching pool to guys interested in working under Gettleman, who might be gone in a year if things go badly.
It has to be Shurmur and Gettleman, not one or the other.
Not that I endorse following the Jets model, but didn't they just hire a HC and then get rid of the GM.
And what makes you think a potential coach wouldn't want to work with DG? Specifics please.
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Because the only way your worst case scenario plays out is if Jones is a bust. If Jones shows he can play in the NFL, he's had flashes, he and Gettleman likely remain a part of this team beyond Shurmur's tenure.
I'm not writing off Jones. I'm saying that when (not if) Gettleman and Shurmur are fired there is a decent chance their successors may want to move in a different direction at quarterback. What if we're in the running for Trevor Lawrence in the 2021 draft after Shumur leads us to another bad year in 2020? Are we supposed to pass on him because we have Jones?
Sorry, but if a new coach wants to go in a different direction at QB, it means Jones is a bust. Or that coach is an idiot, because quality NFL people know how hard it is to find a good QB.
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That's part of my point. The GM and head coach have to be in lock step working together.
If we fire Shumur but keep Gettleman, we're now limiting our head coaching pool to guys interested in working under Gettleman, who might be gone in a year if things go badly.
It has to be Shurmur and Gettleman, not one or the other.
Not that I endorse following the Jets model, but didn't they just hire a HC and then get rid of the GM.
And what makes you think a potential coach wouldn't want to work with DG? Specifics please.
Because they might be interested in running a team like it's the 21st century?
Jokes aside, we're limiting our pool of potential candidates by pushing a GM on them. Not just that, it could be a major source of friction...the head coach will know that he and the GM are on different timelines with different job security - like what happened with the Jets. And now the Jets are a complete mess.
If we're going to maximize efficiency, the GM and head coach have to be tied at the hip and rowing in the same direction.
But your plan is solid but time consuming and has to be done in season, with the HC and GM still in place.
After Sunday I have belatedly seen the light. Bettcher is just awful and I do not know how he made the Cards so good. Cannot fathom how ever week the defense comes out totally unprepared and the team is behind the eight ball before the fans are seated (and until half time). Shurmur's game plan was atrocious. At least McGaughy is doing a good job.
Can you explain your timeline?
How are you getting this done under the noses of Gettleman and Shurmur?
Shurmur's offense is very good, it's resulted in a lot of positive outcomes for this team from a statistical perspective. He's made some mistakes, but with a rookie QB I believe he's the right guy in the right place to develop him and get him to be a consistent winner.
What is much, much more likely, is that next season, and even late this season, you will see the Giants play better, and the Giants have a good chance of going 9-7 or better next year, when Gettleman has another offseason to address the holes on this roster, and Jones is a bit more seasoned and the game slows down a bit for him. Then all this hand-wringing will be moot and you will be enjoying the product on the field more.
As of today, it looks like we are heading for 5-11 or worse.
Folks said Jerry Reese would never be fired. They also said Ben McAdoo would never be fired before the season was over. (I personally didn't see either happening).
My point? Everything is possible.
The problem with the premise of this thread is there's a 0% chance it actually happens now (or even after this season if we're including Gettleman)
We're back on a staggered path. The GM bought himself time with the QB, but the coach might not if the losing continues. So, then we're looking at the coach getting fired, but the same unreliable group of people in place to hire the next one.
Basically you're expecting John Mara to suddenly act completely out of character. He's not going to. He plays it safe with his guys - it would be stunning for him to turn around and dismiss Gettleman along with the coach 5 games into Daniel Jones' career.
The best thing we can realistically hope for is that Shurmur goes and that we get lucky with the next hire. That's unfortunately where we're at. I can't see any way Gettleman isn't the GM beyond this year unless he removes himself from that position.
Let's see what happens though, jury is still out.
Shurmur's offense is very good, it's resulted in a lot of positive outcomes for this team from a statistical perspective. He's made some mistakes, but with a rookie QB I believe he's the right guy in the right place to develop him and get him to be a consistent winner.
What is your definition of very good? Bottom 10 in point/game; bottom 10 in yards/game; leading the league in turnovers. Last year was middle of the road in all categories. With the 'upgrades' to the offense this year we should not be taking a step back like that even with a rookie QB
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most likely go the route they did after 2006 when they forced coaching changes on Coughlin.
This is what I think is the most likely scenario. This is how Mara likes to operate. Sweeping, grandiose statements about needing to win followed by minor, incremental changes slowly over time.
The coordinators likely go at the end of 2019. Shurmur goes in 2020. Gettleman has to 2021. I'm not suggesting this is the right way to go (I don't believe it is), but it is what I expect from this owner.
Problem here is (1) Shurmur would have to accept giving up play calling, (2) Shurmur may have to accept firing both coordinators, and (3) we're still stuck with Shurmur's atrocious game management skills.
I'm going to address this in my game preview, but I hate attacking the guy because he seems like a nice man who is really trying hard. But it didn't work for him in Cleveland. And it's not working for him here. And I agree with those who said this week that the media appears to be getting under his skin.
Gettleman's 2 year track record here is not nearly as bad as it's made out to be.
What I would say is if BB (obviously), Saban or any other big fish want in without Gettleman here, he can go as well, but it's not necessary. Shurmur is.
I'd clean house. I expect half measures from NYG.
But your plan is solid but time consuming and has to be done in season, with the HC and GM still in place.
After Sunday I have belatedly seen the light. Bettcher is just awful and I do not know how he made the Cards so good. Cannot fathom how ever week the defense comes out totally unprepared and the team is behind the eight ball before the fans are seated (and until half time). Shurmur's game plan was atrocious. At least McGaughy is doing a good job.
Can you explain your timeline?
How are you getting this done under the noses of Gettleman and Shurmur?
Once the decision has been made to move on from Gettleman and Shurmur, hiding anything from them is irrelevant. The first decision is to move on from those two.
Once that's done, Mara and Tisch need a full course on best practices for running a front office in today's NFL. How he wants to do that is up to him - he's got the contacts to do it. If I were him and had his contacts, I'd hire two or three independently operating contractors to put together a full report outlining best practices on the following:
1. Front office structure - how do the GM and head coach operate?
2. How best to manage the salary cap to create a sustainable talent pipeline, especially in light of the upcoming CBA
3. Scouting college talent
4. Scouting pro talent
5. Incorporating data analytics into real time in game decision making
I'd have each report include a list of GM and HC candidates (or, if applicable, people to hold both jobs). Those lists would guide the interview process in January.
Once the front office and coaching staff is in place, everyone from the owners to the equipment managers get trained on the information in those reports.
If I were Mara I'd start this process today. He's got the contacts...now's the time to use them.
After this season, ownership forces Shurmur to change his staff or give up playcalling. He gets 1 more year, then they let him go.
I really think we have to let Shurmur and DG have 1 - 2 more seasons. DG will have the real FA money to spend, the 1st drafted players from 2018 will either prove their worth and that the draft was actually good or they will fail to progress. I think 3 years is a good basis point that the team is either moving in the right direction or its not.
1st year we had to tear it down, 2nd year find the new QB and continue to build the foundation and year 3 add FAs to the foundation and continue with the solid drafts. the problem I see right now is DGs 1st draft is looking like it wasnt as good as we all thought. His FAs have not worked out but aside from Solder he wasn't shopping for the top players.
teams of the past that have turned it around in 1 -2 seasons had players in place. When we got rid of Fassel we had a solid base of veteran players to build upon. Right now we have almost none. how many players on the roster are in their 2nd contract?
I fully expect them to splurge next year in Free Agency, but I actually see them going something like 10-6 next year and making the playoffs.
And I think like Eric said, he's going to serve up Bettcher at the end of the season. And perhaps they make him give up playcalling duties to Shula. But unless he loses the team, I don't think the Giants fire him, even though I don't think he's going to win anything here.
Unfortunately, you can't just get rid of one without the other, IMO. DG hired Shurmur, so when Shurmur goes, so should DG.
And it would be well deserved
I fully expect them to splurge next year in Free Agency, but I actually see them going something like 10-6 next year and making the playoffs.
And I think like Eric said, he's going to serve up Bettcher at the end of the season. And perhaps they make him give up playcalling duties to Shula. But unless he loses the team, I don't think the Giants fire him, even though I don't think he's going to win anything here.
I don't see it. I agree with Go Terps. He doesn't have a feel for this, not as HC. For all his warts, Fassel got the Giants to the playoffs three times, including one Super Bowl appearance. Shurmur will never get a whiff of any of that.
Things get really messy in hurry, especially with a 2nd year QB, if you flush out half of management after this year with the other half of management on the hotseat. Personally, I agree with the thinking that they should backchannel interest to a couple of longshot dream candidates (ie. Belichick) and barring interest from one of them, press forward with Shurmur under the stipulation that he delegate some gameday responsibilities. If things aren't turned around by 2020, you pull the plug on the whole thing. I'm very much against a staggered approach barring extraordinary conditions.
Despite his faults, Fassel did have that sweaty lipped beady eyed weasel WILINESS that many of the good NFL coaches have and Shumer lacks.
Shurmur has to go. I think people around here would feel a lot better about the current and future state of the Giants if they had a coach who provided an advantage over the opposition week to week. This team would be 3-4 or 4-3 right now and right in the thick of it off better coaching alone.