Barring the unforeseen the Giants will be entering this offseason with a top 5-ish draft pick and some money to spend in the free agent market. In that sense, we aren't all that far off from where we were in January 2018: a bad football team with opportunities for growth on the horizon.
However, there's one key difference between January 2018 and January 2020 - this time the decisions look like they'll be made in large part by two men squarely on the hot seat: Gettleman and Shurmur. Given their tenuous job situation, can we expect them to avoid a short term splurge at the expense of the long term?
When I think about this, there's a timeline that keeps playing out in my head, and it goes like this:
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December 2019
- Giants finish 5-11, both Gettleman and Shurmur keep their jobs
January-May 2020
-Giants spend big bucks to sign FAs (think Shaq Barrett, Jadeveon Clowney, Jack Conklin, AJ Green, Amari Cooper). -They also don't consider drafting a QB after all, they just drafted Jones
Fall 2020
- under Shurmur's inept coaching the Giants sputter to another 5-11 season
January 2021
- Gettleman and Shurmur are fired
- New GM and head coach are hired
January-May 2021
- New GM and head coach commence purging roster of contracts they don't want, resulting in significant dead money on cap
- New GM and head coach decide they don't like Daniel Jones and want their own QB
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Going through that scenario, the obvious question arises: why didn't we just fire Gettleman and Shurmur in January 2020?
Unless you believe that Shurmur can coach a team to something greater than 5-11, this story ends with Gettleman and Shurmur being fired. So why allow them the opportunity to make a bunch of desperate decisions in January-May 2020?
Does John Mara anticipate Gettleman & Shurmur to be in their current jobs 3 years from now? I’d bet my mortgage that answer is no.
It’s time we build a program here, there hasn’t been a sustainable plan/vision since leading into the 2004 season. Terps makes a good point in that keeping DG/PS will lead to short-sighted decisions very similar to what happened after the 2015 season.
I think Gettleman is far more competent than Shurmur is, but the coach and GM have to be in lock-step. For example, look at the 49’ers:
Shanahan was brought in before Lynch - he was only going to go to SF if he knew he could work with the GM. Same will apply to McDaniels.
It is a good opportunity to have a clean slate at HC & GM with a young QB, cap space & a high draft pick. It would be a desirable job if the GM wasn’t already in place.
I'd be surprised if they fire anybody this year though.
- 2-5 this season
- 7-16 since the start of 2018
- 10-29 since the start of 2017
- 43-68 since Sandy
We talk about the Handley and Reeves years like they were the Dark Ages, but those years were the Renaissance compared to what we've been watching since 2012.
This is the worst stretch of Giants football in 40 years.
I understand and it will continue until it doesnt. The question I ask myself is what do I truly believe is most likely to happen. Clean house again and become a perennial powerhouse in less than 1.5 seasons of the next regime or be having this same exact conversation week 8 of 2021.
In this market I believe you either hire someone who has proven able to win and handle the market or you give an unproven the resources and time to build something. I wonder if Coughlin and Eli would have been able to succeed coming off the end of the Reese years vs the Accorsi years. Would we have given them the time?
What's most likely to happen is what I outlined in the thread starter. They're going to keep Shurmur and Gettleman for another year, let them fuck this team up a little more, then fire them January 2021.
At this time next year we'll be wishing we'd have made the move right now.
What is much, much more likely, is that next season, and even late this season, you will see the Giants play better, and the Giants have a good chance of going 9-7 or better next year,
How on Earth can we consider a 9-7 season "much, much more likely?" Isn't that entirely ignoring the past and present?
It’s an opportunity for a true clean slate.
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It's not because the Yankees lost. It's because the Giants are now one of the worst organizations in the NFL. Pick whichever measure you want...
- 2-5 this season
- 7-16 since the start of 2018
- 10-29 since the start of 2017
- 43-68 since Sandy
We talk about the Handley and Reeves years like they were the Dark Ages, but those years were the Renaissance compared to what we've been watching since 2012.
This is the worst stretch of Giants football in 40 years.
I understand and it will continue until it doesnt. The question I ask myself is what do I truly believe is most likely to happen. Clean house again and become a perennial powerhouse in less than 1.5 seasons of the next regime or be having this same exact conversation week 8 of 2021.
In this market I believe you either hire someone who has proven able to win and handle the market or you give an unproven the resources and time to build something. I wonder if Coughlin and Eli would have been able to succeed coming off the end of the Reese years vs the Accorsi years. Would we have given them the time?
Where does Shurmur fall? Is he a unproven that you are giving time even though this is his fourth year or is he a proven winner which I have no idea how any one could think that?
I am fine with DG personally so I don't share the thread starter's views with that. Shurmur.....I have seen enough. Do you honestly feel he could lead the team to a Super Bowl? The only big game he was in as OC he got abused in Philly.
Shurmur has to go. I think people around here would feel a lot better about the current and future state of the Giants if they had a coach who provided an advantage over the opposition week to week. This team would be 3-4 or 4-3 right now and right in the thick of it off better coaching alone.
Beyond the 2nd, how successful really is the 2018 draft?
If you group in Beal, how well have Hill, Carter, McIntosh, and Beal shown this year?
They should just jump back to that point, and correct a mistake from the past. Bring in an outside consultant, someone who isn't just a rubber stamp, to evaluate the whole program. Interview a number of GM candidates, get their feedback on where the program has gone off the rails and what changes they need to make to get back to competitive football. Hire the best one, let them pick a coach and hold them responsible for the results over the next 3 years. If that doesn't work, go right back to it.
That independent evaluation should be happening right now - so that they get an outsider's view of what is really going on inside those walls. They're obviously not qualified to self assess, and bringing in friends and family in Accorsi didn't get the job done either.
Until a real HC is brought in I have no hope.
Until a real HC is brought in I have no hope.
It's not just the head coach. Shurmur's completely lost and he inhibits our ability to win on Sundays (we should have lost in Tampa in large part due to his late game clock mismanagement), but he's a symptom of a larger problem.
John Mara has lost his way. The one big thing he's got going for him is that he isn't a Dolan or Wilpon level asshole. Mara wants to win, he just doesn't know how to do it and needs help.
Because until that happens, none of this will ever come to pass.
I don't think he feels confident enough in his own football acumen; so he's trying to keep the ol' tried and true around for the real football stuff.
What would have to happen for Mara to decide that his methodologies as far as who he hires and how he goes about hiring these people are failing and need to change?
I don't know the answer to that.
What I do know, is that it's going to take more than another 5-6 win season for him to show both the GM and coach the door.
Beyond that, we also need to consider the possibility that moving on from Gettleman/Shurmur doesn't guarantee better hires in their respective places.
If the belief is that Shurmur is an even worse coach than McAdoo.. it means we're going in the wrong direction with our hires. I have zero faith in John Mara to suddenly decide that his philosophy needs to drastically change here.
I'm sure he wants to win... I just struggle with seeing how this is going to get fixed when he's still the one making the calls at the top and the one hiring the people tasked with actually doing that.
It felt like Coughlin's time was up here... which is fine. But, we've now successively hired two coaches who are worse. Why would that suddenly change? Blind luck?
And I'm not advocating no changes on that premise.
It's just that John Mara would have to fairly drastically change who he is and how he approaches his football decisions for us to wind up with a GM that doesn't have past NYG ties - and I'm not sure what would have to happen to allow for that to take place.
Link - ( New Window )
I'd expect more half-measures.. like just firing Bettcher and no one else.
It's going to take more than another 5-win year for him to get rid of both guys, I think.
I don't think Gettleman is doing an awful job... but I also don't like a staggered schedule where we're firing coaches, but keeping GM's... or firing coordinators, but keeping the coach like we kept doing with Coughlin near the end. That's not going to work long-term, so if they're going to can Shurmur, they should probably just go all the way.
But, I don't see Mara having the balls to do that. He seems like a guy who likes to play it safe and is very risk-averse.
It's just that John Mara would have to fairly drastically change who he is and how he approaches his football decisions for us to wind up with a GM that doesn't have past NYG ties - and I'm not sure what would have to happen to allow for that to take place.
You know as well as me that the next GM sits across the hall from Gettleman. Kevin Abrams. And the probability is 95%+.
Which means, unfortunately, so much of this is academic. And that is even more infuriating as a fan...
Of course I don't expect that to happen. In all likelihood, Shurmur-who is so out of his element that it's sad-stays, they fire a coordinator-probably Bettcher-to appease the fan base, & we go into 2020 with Shurmur continuing to get out coached on a weekly basis.
I'm so frustrated with this franchise right now. Completely lost.
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He’s found some quality players later in the draft which is extremely hard to do. Look at the rest of the league and Reese’s record here. Hell look at Reese’s record after round 1. His drafts will pay dividends down the road. I don’t think it’s appropriate to consider canning him at this point.
Shurmur has to go. I think people around here would feel a lot better about the current and future state of the Giants if they had a coach who provided an advantage over the opposition week to week. This team would be 3-4 or 4-3 right now and right in the thick of it off better coaching alone.
Beyond the 2nd, how successful really is the 2018 draft?
If you group in Beal, how well have Hill, Carter, McIntosh, and Beal shown this year?
Hill and Carter are starters and both have at least flashed regardless of negative your opinion is of them. I think they’d all be better with a different staff.
4 starters out of the ‘18 draft and 4 starters out of the ‘19 draft along with promising contributors like Slayton is an incredibly strong draft record. Most teams are getting 1-2 decent players out of the draft. Another strong draft like the last two along w a smart off-season and this team will not be lacking in the talent department. The issue is whether this coaching staff is worth a shit.
People overlook how terrible this roster was when Gettleman took over. Even the bad teams have some core to build around. A group of 3 or 4 high end guys to build off of.
Gettleman inherited Tomlinson, Engram, and Sheppard. That was his core and Engram/Sheppard have been disappointments. I’d say all 3 are just ok players. The core he was handed outside of those 3 were a bunch of overpaid losers with terrible contracts.
After this season, ownership forces Shurmur to change his staff or give up playcalling. He gets 1 more year, then they let him go.
Groundhog day
And in 3 or 4 years..same ol same ol. Mara way
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It's just that John Mara would have to fairly drastically change who he is and how he approaches his football decisions for us to wind up with a GM that doesn't have past NYG ties - and I'm not sure what would have to happen to allow for that to take place.
You know as well as me that the next GM sits across the hall from Gettleman. Kevin Abrams. And the probability is 95%+.
Which means, unfortunately, so much of this is academic. And that is even more infuriating as a fan...
Yep. We agree there. The discussion is fruitful and makes sense - but the problem is that John Mara is who he is... and if we're just going to fire Dave Gettleman to hire someone like Kevin Abrams, what the heck is the point?
Nothing will drastically change unless Mara's views do. And I'm not sure what would need to happen to make that a reality short of more disastrous Giants football.
- Drafts Barkley over a QB who see's ghosts
- Drafts Hernandez in Round 2, going to be a key cog on this OL for years
-Drafts Carter and Hill in R3, both have disappointed
this season after flashing last year but still leaps better than anything Reese ever drafted in the 3rd round
-Gets rid of a locker room cancer who was never going to work here in Eli Apple, uses one of the picks acquired to move up for Baker (who IMO looks really solid now that hes settled in)
-Gets rid of an aging Snacks and his bad contract, uses that pick to draft a promising WR (Slayton)
- Flips Vernons horrible contract for a well-above average RG in Zeitler
- Drafts Jones who has the makings of a franchise QB imo
- Drafts Lawrence, highest graded rookie according to PFF
- Wins OBJ trade imo
I'd expect more half-measures.. like just firing Bettcher and no one else.
It's going to take more than another 5-win year for him to get rid of both guys, I think.
I don't think Gettleman is doing an awful job... but I also don't like a staggered schedule where we're firing coaches, but keeping GM's... or firing coordinators, but keeping the coach like we kept doing with Coughlin near the end. That's not going to work long-term, so if they're going to can Shurmur, they should probably just go all the way.
But, I don't see Mara having the balls to do that. He seems like a guy who likes to play it safe and is very risk-averse.
I think Mara wants to win & if we are sitting at 3-7 at the bye (likely), maybe 2-8 - during that bye week there needs to be a come to jesus moment. I really do think Mara wants to win but just needs to be jolted into taking serious action. Sitting at the bye week with another lost season may bring that.
-Solder was a desperation signing and overpay that hasn't worked out. But then again, who would be playing LT if they didn't sign him?
-Can't believe he traded a 4th rounder for Ogletree...
-Bethea, Martin, Omameh, Stewart were all major flops
-Tate looks like a solid signing and contributor although still not sure it makes any sense given his age and having Shepard as a slot already
- Golden, M. Thomas have been the only signings that really stand out as positives
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In comment 14641324 WillVAB said:
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He’s found some quality players later in the draft which is extremely hard to do. Look at the rest of the league and Reese’s record here. Hell look at Reese’s record after round 1. His drafts will pay dividends down the road. I don’t think it’s appropriate to consider canning him at this point.
Shurmur has to go. I think people around here would feel a lot better about the current and future state of the Giants if they had a coach who provided an advantage over the opposition week to week. This team would be 3-4 or 4-3 right now and right in the thick of it off better coaching alone.
Beyond the 2nd, how successful really is the 2018 draft?
If you group in Beal, how well have Hill, Carter, McIntosh, and Beal shown this year?
Hill and Carter are starters and both have at least flashed regardless of negative your opinion is of them. I think they’d all be better with a different staff.
4 starters out of the ‘18 draft and 4 starters out of the ‘19 draft along with promising contributors like Slayton is an incredibly strong draft record. Most teams are getting 1-2 decent players out of the draft. Another strong draft like the last two along w a smart off-season and this team will not be lacking in the talent department. The issue is whether this coaching staff is worth a shit.
People overlook how terrible this roster was when Gettleman took over. Even the bad teams have some core to build around. A group of 3 or 4 high end guys to build off of.
Gettleman inherited Tomlinson, Engram, and Sheppard. That was his core and Engram/Sheppard have been disappointments. I’d say all 3 are just ok players. The core he was handed outside of those 3 were a bunch of overpaid losers with terrible contracts.
The notion of those terrible losers is quite interesting; I posted in another thread they net Gettleman 2 3rd round picks, a 4th, 5th, a 1st, Zeitler, and Peppers. The league didn't value them as nothing. Gettleman moved them and built this team on it.
Now if the barometer is being a starter, how productive of starters are Hill and Carter? Hill has been incredibly unproductive this year, Carter missed time so I'll give him an incomple.
Do you believe them to be good?
It's possible neither of those guys ever become as good as Shep, Engram and Tomlinson. They certainly aren't now.
Who are the known commodities that are being bitched about?
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In comment 14641683 Go Terps said:
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It's not because the Yankees lost. It's because the Giants are now one of the worst organizations in the NFL. Pick whichever measure you want...
- 2-5 this season
- 7-16 since the start of 2018
- 10-29 since the start of 2017
- 43-68 since Sandy
We talk about the Handley and Reeves years like they were the Dark Ages, but those years were the Renaissance compared to what we've been watching since 2012.
This is the worst stretch of Giants football in 40 years.
I understand and it will continue until it doesnt. The question I ask myself is what do I truly believe is most likely to happen. Clean house again and become a perennial powerhouse in less than 1.5 seasons of the next regime or be having this same exact conversation week 8 of 2021.
In this market I believe you either hire someone who has proven able to win and handle the market or you give an unproven the resources and time to build something. I wonder if Coughlin and Eli would have been able to succeed coming off the end of the Reese years vs the Accorsi years. Would we have given them the time?
Where does Shurmur fall? Is he a unproven that you are giving time even though this is his fourth year or is he a proven winner which I have no idea how any one could think that?
I am fine with DG personally so I don't share the thread starter's views with that. Shurmur.....I have seen enough. Do you honestly feel he could lead the team to a Super Bowl? The only big game he was in as OC he got abused in Philly.
Shurmur is obviously not a proven winner as a head coach (yet) so he falls under an unproven that needs the time and resources to build. He has accelerated the learning phase of this organizations next franchise quarterback and is currently coaching him through a difficult period. A period when the opposition has enough tape to take away strengths and expose weaknesses. Hopefully they can take a few on the chin, grow and counterpunch.
The defense still needs pieces that fit the scheme and the youth need snaps and experience.
Jones may be special. He already looks more talented than anything Shurmur has ever worked with before. Unless he loses the locker room, you give him another offseason and next year with a franchise quarterback to see if they both take the next step.
I don't care how rocky this year is for the defense. Again, as long as he doesn't lose his players, you give Bettcher another year also. This past draft was dedicated to scheme specific defenders and you can't overhaul that side of the ball again for a new coordinator next year. Build it.
I disagree on Gettleman. I’d like to see another draft or two from him and hope he bucks the trend of his shitty signings and spends more wisely.
I want a clean sweep of the entire coaching staff. Shurmur, Bettcher, Shula (lol). Everyone. This is a horrendously coached football team.
They've both got to go, or keep them both and hope Shurmur spends his off-season playing Madden to learn game management.
Yep. We agree there. The discussion is fruitful and makes sense - but the problem is that John Mara is who he is... and if we're just going to fire Dave Gettleman to hire someone like Kevin Abrams, what the heck is the point?
Nothing will drastically change unless Mara's views do. And I'm not sure what would need to happen to make that a reality short of more disastrous Giants football.
You can almost write the script.
Mara passed over Abrams for Gettleman. And he probably feels a little guilty about that, but appreciates Abrams loyalty and longevity. So when the next time does come around, Mara rewards that loyalty and longevity.
It's really sad how predictable this is going to be...
I think they will both be back next season, and we'll fire them both in January 2021 after a 5-11 season.
And I'll add this as a word of warning regarding Gettleman: look at the Jets as a cautionary tale. They just spent a ton of money on big name free agents and got 0% closer to a title. If we keep Gettleman with the implicit ultimatum of having to win in 2020, we'll make the same mistakes the Jets made and it will hurt us in 2021 and 2022.
By the time you've gotten to the "win or else" year, you already should have gotten rid of the guy.
Bettcher is a goner at end of season if not sooner. Defense looks clueless, brought in several of his players and he acts as if he is on the hot-seat during weekly media sessions anyway. Whomever spoke up for Bethea needs to be crucified for that decision alone.
All defenders of the faith should take their sabbaticals now please...your views have no merit...
Giants are top 5 in penalties per game. I don't recall any ridiculous egregious personal fouls or evidence of a lack of discipline. No ejections or fighting. Players aren't mouthing off in the media about other players being cancers, or not wanting to be there, or not wanting to be leaders.
Seems like a young team working hard and learning from mistakes.
The TO margins are what are really killing this team's chances of winning right now. TO's mostly tied to a young aggressive QB and a lack of TO's from a young defense.
If it's just when to go or when to punt and the use of timeouts, I don't think this staff is out of line with most other staffs. If anything, Shurmur is more aggressive and could maybe be more conservative with a young team.
If it's just questioning play calling, well, you're likely young or an end of the bar blowhard...
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The only way Shurmur is fired after 2021 is if the team
What is much, much more likely, is that next season, and even late this season, you will see the Giants play better, and the Giants have a good chance of going 9-7 or better next year,
How on Earth can we consider a 9-7 season "much, much more likely?" Isn't that entirely ignoring the past and present?
My opinion is the Giants have a collection of talent, led by Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley on defense, Lawrence, Baker, Connelly on offense, but others...they are not that far away. I think all Jones needs is some additional seasoning and NFL reps. He's making mistakes but it would be weird if he wasn't. Another offseason, with Eli coming off the books and with what I expect Gettleman will be able to do with another draft and free agency, I do believe this team is going to be a strong one, and already see the trend pointing northward.
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In comment 14641346 Go Terps said:
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Setting aside that I'm not sure these two drafts have been all that great, Gettleman's had his hand in three massive gaffes:
1. Hiring Shurmur
2. Signing Beckham
3. Keeping Eli when he TWICE could have let him walk for cap savings
Shurmur has been an atrocity at coach, but it's not like Gettleman's done a good job either.
And again, the GM and head coach should sink or swim together.
The Beckham signing led to a trade that greatly improved the team.
The trade should have happened before he was signed. And I don't see this team as greatly improved.
Um, that wouldn't have resulted in much since he wouldn't have been under contractual control. This just shows you don't really have a nuanced take or really know what you're talking about. The fact that Gettleman got what he did from the Browns was because OBJ was locked up.
The trade netted Dexter Lawrence, who is on track for defensive rookie of the year contention, Jabrill Peppers, who is not a bad player, and Oshane Ximines, who has potential.
If it was ONLY OBJ for Lawrence, the trade would be justifiable.
I said it back in March when they paid Eli's bonus: want to bring Eli back? Fine. Go win games.
You're the only one moving goalposts.
Um, that wouldn't have resulted in much since he wouldn't have been under contractual control. This just shows you don't really have a nuanced take or really know what you're talking about. The fact that Gettleman got what he did from the Browns was because OBJ was locked up.[/quote]
Say what???
I have news for you, the Giants had contractual control over OBJ for the 2018 season. After that they had control over him via the franchise tag. The Giants held ALL the cards in this situation. Gettleman folded like a cheap suit.
Tell me again about not having a nuanced take?
My opinion is the Giants have a collection of talent, led by Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley on defense, Lawrence, Baker, Connelly on offense, but others...they are not that far away. I think all Jones needs is some additional seasoning and NFL reps. He's making mistakes but it would be weird if he wasn't. Another offseason, with Eli coming off the books and with what I expect Gettleman will be able to do with another draft and free agency, I do believe this team is going to be a strong one, and already see the trend pointing northward.
How did Lawrence do this week against a pedestrian OL?
Did you see Baker's ballerina routine that cosmic pointed out? I thought he did poorly on first watch, but after taking a second look he was AWFUL.
Connelly had all of what, two games?
Right now, at best, the Giants are hopeful that they might have a few guys who could be good starters. That's after stripping down some good parts, trading them for picks and cap space, and rebuilding.
The results? Either garbage that's still on the roster and costing money (Ogletree, Solder), or guys who got paid to be sent away quickly (Stewart, Omameh).
Draft picks? The only one you can hang your hat on being better than average going forward is Barkley. Lawrence has upside, but he's been inconsistent. The rest aren't having your typical solid rookie years, with good play mixed in with mistakes. The good play is absent - to the point where you can't figure out if the coaches are complete idiots or they're just working with trash.
It's all academic anyway - the Giants won't pull the plug. They'll be in the same place 2 years from now, and the arguments will be the same with just a few names changed.
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What do you honestly expect after this season vis a vis Shurmur/Gettleman?
I think they will both be back next season, and we'll fire them both in January 2021 after a 5-11 season.
And I'll add this as a word of warning regarding Gettleman: look at the Jets as a cautionary tale. They just spent a ton of money on big name free agents and got 0% closer to a title. If we keep Gettleman with the implicit ultimatum of having to win in 2020, we'll make the same mistakes the Jets made and it will hurt us in 2021 and 2022.
By the time you've gotten to the "win or else" year, you already should have gotten rid of the guy.
Terps, I'm not sure the Jets are really a good example here... they started Luke Falk in like 3 games. Once you're down to your 3rd string QB, you're pretty much in hopeless territory. They wouldn't have been competitive against a lot of college defenses those few weeks - that's how bad Falk was.
Once Darnold was back, they beat Dallas and they didn't look that bad in Week 1 either before their defense blew it.
CJ Mosely was also one of the guys they spent money on and he missed a bunch of weeks. On top of that, they lost Avery Williamson in preseason - who was their signal caller on defense.
I'm not suggesting that their strategy was sound as far as how they spent their cap dollars, but what happened at the QB position completely removed any semblance of hope of being competitive in those games.
Now, Darnold obviously did play on Monday... and the Jets were completely laughed off the field. But, if Darnold hadn't missed a month with mono, they might still at least reasonably be in the mix at something like 3-3.
I actually thought they could have had a fairly competitive year as they were constructed and could have won 8-9 games... but that ship has sailed.
So, Abrams next, ya think? Another disaster.
Tomlin? I recall Bill Arnsbarger. That didn't work either. Because Mara...
What we need is a GM and Manager of ALL Operations and get the Maras & co. the hell out of the day-to-day business.
Otherwise, I am for keeping Gettleman and Shurmur. Because the root of the rot is the ownership, not the GM or Coach.
A full house cleaning has been needed since TV was let go. But bad decisions and half measures (with a healthy dose of loyalty to Eli) has lead us here. 5 wins is the likely ceiling of this team until an outside voice is brought in
2. Gettleman is 68 years old. Let's be honest...maybe he is around for one more year.
3. Shurmur at this point looks like a coordinator.
Everyone needs to take a step back and let the season play itself out. But I agree with Terps that if you are planning on getting rid of Shurmur, Gettleman has to go (retire) at the same time. The Giants need to have the GM and coach on the same page and they need to come in together. What coach would want to come in under a soon to be retire GM?