The time to make changes is now, and here's why

advocating changes is a good thing

Expecting decision makers to make them at the peak or the trough of any human enterprise is unlikely

Its a full blown full out talent turnaround...I don't care what PR stuff is claimed.

Its completely unlikely that a huge variable gets changed after a rookie QB season on a 1 year in multi year turnaround.

If we over rotate on every loss in a rookie QB season on a turnaround team we join Jints Central in poor football judgement.

Do I think PS is the answer? No. Since last year. I think he sucks at game management and is highly unlikely to improve. As a game manager he is a center.

Would most owners change a big variable in their business equation at this time? No

Do I think its offensive play calling that's the number one or two reason we are where we are? No. Its like fifth after OL, LB, DB and WR

Takes a long aggravating time to turn a ship around

In comment 14642547 Bill2 said:

Quote:

advocating changes is a good thing Expecting decision makers to make them at the peak or the trough of any human enterprise is unlikely Its a full blown full out talent turnaround...I don't care what PR stuff is claimed. Its completely unlikely that a huge variable gets changed after a rookie QB season on a 1 year in multi year turnaround. If we over rotate on every loss in a rookie QB season on a turnaround team we join Jints Central in poor football judgement. Do I think PS is the answer? No. Since last year. I think he sucks at game management and is highly unlikely to improve. As a game manager he is a center. Would most owners change a big variable in their business equation at this time? No Do I think its offensive play calling that's the number one or two reason we are where we are? No. Its like fifth after OL, LB, DB and WR Takes a long aggravating time to turn a ship around

Of course it's not likely to happen. Ownership has been unable to self scout, so why would they be able to determine that Gettleman and Shurmur are failing at their jobs.

One thing that does get under my skin though is using the rookie QB as an excuse. We entered the season with Eli Manning, a 15 year vet, as the quarterback. Gettleman espoused the supposed "Kansas City model" and even implied that Jones might sit on the bench for two or more years. Even if that was PR bullshit, Eli was brought back at great expense - $17M in cap space.

If anyone over rotated, it was Gettleman. He signed Beckham to a cornerstone contract and traded him 7 months later. He committed to paying Eli $23M to be the quarterback in 2019 and benched him after 2 games. These are the moves of a man with no plan.

I know that Gettleman and Shurmur are likely back in 2020. But I thought this was a thread worth starting because I would bet money that we are having this same conversation a year from now - that 2020 is already a lost year and we'll all be a year older and talking about starting over again.

It's disheartening that a bunch of non-experts like a bunch of us here can have even this relatively low level of foresight, but ownership does not.

picks. They are still learning and look ok so far to me. I alos wouldn't touch Zeitler, Peppers, Hernandez, and Shepard. All of these players are the ones you build around. The rest of the players can be replaced, if we get the right deals/draft picks. Shurmur should go also.

Why if being a Giants fan is causing so much angst, anger,and anxiety then why waste time? Just choose another team. One that wins all the time so your expectations will be met ALL the time. Giants ain't listening to you, anyhow. Neither DG PS or JM care what you think they should do.

Go Terps:

I feel PS is not going to be a playoff series winning coach

I do not know the decision risk analysis behind OBJ.

For one thing a guy who is motivated in many different ways by many different fleeting impulses (OBJ) is not a guy who is going to make any decision maker ( QB, Coach or GM) look in control from game to game much less season to season much less over seasons. Its like signing an addict to a contract. The only decision trees are two: it works out as he currently claims it will and he stops the associated holdouts and BS or we are in a position to trade him because we eliminated the projectable points where he has leverage ( short term impending FA is eliminated from the equation)

Nor do any of us yet know if the payback for a fading performance was a very good DL, a good safety (if paired with a good FS) and a very good FA or 2 good FA. So we don't know if DG took a 50% likely decline and turned it into the long term thinking you espouse.

On QB, my take is simple. Until you have a good new one, you cant do anything with the old fading one.

When it comes to a bad roster, the evaluation criteria for a GM is not talent aquisition, its managed fire sale with minimal risk. The exception is QB where the range of likely Eli performance at the time was x to y. Until you have a new better QB on the roster you cant throw away x to y performance.

Notice as soon as Jones projected x to y exceeded Eli's x...they made the decision

Decisions are made in time windows. Commentary is made afterwards. Ok. So when does a good analyst evaluate? Anyone can comment. Good Analysts evaluate GM talent by assessing the reasonable risk at the time of the decision window.

imo

In comment 14642596 Nolan64 said:

Quote:

Why if being a Giants fan is causing so much angst, anger,and anxiety then why waste time? Just choose another team. One that wins all the time so your expectations will be met ALL the time. Giants ain't listening to you, anyhow. Neither DG PS or JM care what you think they should do.

If you think the Giants don't react to the fanbase you haven't been paying attention.

In comment 14642600 Bill2 said:

Quote:

Go Terps: Good Analysts evaluate GM talent by assessing the reasonable risk at the time of the decision window. imo

This^^^^^

Many on BBI do not understand this. It is a problem.

Many of us were critical of the Gettleman/Shurmur hires the moment they were made, and our concerns have completely materialized into reality.

while we can drop an average Cb and project that it is a fungible resource we can find in one off season...we know that even an average QB in one offseason draft ready within that season is a less than 50% probability.

that's why you don't drop one until you know you have another actually ready to play

its 50% of the difference in winning or losing and less than 50% that your draft produces a NFL ready QB within a year.

Just a fact. Are their examples of successful rookie QB's? Yes. Are there more examples of rookie QBS who need more time or never got it? Yes. Many more.

So imo, OBJ and QB are not the points which hoist DG on a pointard.

His was an insanely hard job with an ownership that likely does not know how to see what they see. DG is going to be evaluated mid way into next year with one more FA and draft.

Go Terps, you know I agree with much of your thinking over the years. But we cant simultaneously claim they need to look long term and then make some judgements before their time.

I do agree that less than 5 victories and PS should be gone.

5 or more its likely another season.

First useful marking period for DG is mid way into next year provided no major injuries that negate any solid evaluation

Please don't confuse my feelings from my thinking. I don't feel PS is going to make it. I feel this is all taking too long. I feel that surely this turnaround could have been done faster

Nope.

Tat last post reveals a common human quasi faux-analytical trap.

Taking some data points, (ignoring all others) and torturing them into confessing your original emotional take.

In sophomore year logic, cherry picking.

thinking is not feeling

I did not mean that as a put down.

I think many of your instincts are very good.

There is a reason your instincts are now all highly tuned to downside risk and "seeing" leadership flaws

Makes them a theme and not an analysis. So finding neutral add to your vision ...it doesn't weaken it...it broadens it.

make sense?

and this is NOT a knock on DJ, who I am still high on.

but in the past 10 years, what successful QB's (or those we deem to be high quality) have struggled in their first 2 years?

we always go back to Aikman & Peyton, and even Eli for our examples... but when I think of guys like Rodgers, Mahomes, Wilson, Dak, Wentz, A. Luck and Cam**... I seem to recall these guys pretty much came out of the gate successfully and have been generally pretty good since.


**I suppose you can debate if all of these guys should be on the "Good" List (and Cam would seem to be off it now, though that may be more injury related).

so is it right in today's NFL to expect our QB to show something in Year 1 or 2 as a predictor of long term success?

I don't agree that my original take is an emotional one. I'm calling the situation as I see it playing out. I consider myself to be more objective than most, and I'll stand by my record here of seeing how things are going to develop for this team.

I'll boil it down to the simplest terms I can: there's a good chance the latest that either Gettleman or Shurmur will be working in their present roles with the Giants is January 2021. That's not an emotional take; it's how I see things playing out what I've come to understand Mara's tolerance for losing to be.

2018: 5-11
2019: 5-11
2020: 5-11

That's how I see this playing out, and that's going to be enough for Mara to blow it up.

My point with this thread is that, given this likely outcome, it's best to just blow it up now.

That's not an emotional take; it's how I see things playing out and what I've come to understand Mara's tolerance for losing to be.

And Reese mid-season and I remember a lot of people making claims that Mara would never do such a thing. I think Mara has made some bad decisions the past few years for a variety of reasons, but I think he’s going to be as impatient as we all are this point. If both he and DG feel Pat isn’t doing a good job I can see them letting him go at season’s end. Especially if he winds up with the same or even worse record as last year. In the preseason Mara said he just wants to feel like the team is in the right direction by the end of the season.. some pieces of young talent feel that way, but overall, a lot of work to be done..and the coaching staff is for syre on the hot seat now.

He's invested vast resources in the OL which still sucks.

His draft picks have shown some promise. I like Jones a lot. Lawrence looks good. But I consider his drafting TBD rather than a solid point on either side.

I thought this was a 2-3 year job when DG was hired. I think he misjudged the roster and thought he could compete with a few tweaks his first year - which I think was a colossal mistake that set this franchise back.

With that said, I expect him to get another year, and I'm kind of okay with it. Maybe we see Hernandez take the next step, Jones ascends to a top ten QB, etc. The draft picks need more time to decisively rule on DG, IMO.

If we are 5-11 or worse in 2020, the new regime will probably select its own QB.

In comment 14642620 Bill2 said:

Quote:

His was an insanely hard job with an ownership that likely does not know how to see what they see. DG is going to be evaluated mid way into next year with one more FA and draft. I do agree that less than 5 victories and PS should be gone. 5 or more its likely another season. First useful marking period for DG is mid way into next year provided no major injuries that negate any solid evaluation Please don't confuse my feelings from my thinking. I don't feel PS is going to make it. I feel this is all taking too long. I feel that surely this turnaround could have been done faster

I agree with everything you wrote in this post. I cut it down to highlight what really hits home for me.

DG midway through next year. Perfect. Looking at the lines on both sides of the ball.

5 wins, I agree on PS

Think vs Feel

Very well said. I concur with your feelings.

Bill2, do you play or have you played chess competitively?

In comment 14642650 Go Terps said:

Quote:

I don't agree that my original take is an emotional one. I'm calling the situation as I see it playing out. I consider myself to be more objective than most, and I'll stand by my record here of seeing how things are going to develop for this team. I'll boil it down to the simplest terms I can: there's a good chance the latest that either Gettleman or Shurmur will be working in their present roles with the Giants is January 2021. That's not an emotional take; it's how I see things playing out what I've come to understand Mara's tolerance for losing to be. 2018: 5-11 2019: 5-11 2020: 5-11 That's how I see this playing out, and that's going to be enough for Mara to blow it up. My point with this thread is that, given this likely outcome, it's best to just blow it up now.

5-11 for 2020 would be the actionable part of this data and I think it is too early to call that without knowing the roster, I would think it more of a guess even if it turns out to be correct.

.

In comment 14642705 Go Terps said:

Quote:

.

sigh...He might not be here next year.

And if Shurmur is fired, it's bad business to keep the GM and head coach on different timelines. Sigh.

Here is where we disagree:

First, the prime asset any CEO has is credibility with executive talent possibilities. Not us. Not players.

Getting a reasonable long enough to prove timeline with the CEO is the difference in many many executive level talent recruitment drives.

No one wants to work at the whim or early reactions of a CEO. Unless their exit parachute is ownership lucrative in which case its an investment risk.

So your assessment: I feel if i combine the actual past record with talent from a previous regime with my feeling about the future then why waste time?

Huh...the record earned under the tail of Reese/Ross is still with us but less and less. Name a good semi proven GM with prospects for an NFL career that is not going to insist on a reasonable period of judgement which includes a wash out the past regime of 2 years and then 2 years to show what they can do?

You would insist on that. Why wouldn't a guy with solid credentials as an NFL GM insist on the same and avoid a owner who pulls that job early?

The past is lost. It affects our patience as fans. But it doesn't merit evaluating these guys in their time.

the Giants past does not demonstrate the need for a shorter and shorter leash on the GM.

It demonstrates that the current Gm ( and if needed the future one) has four tasks:

1) Managing the owner

2) Getting max value for the mismatches of the past GM

3) Building a new roster

4) keeping all the stakeholders understanding those sometimes zigging and zagging looking words and actions

Task 37: saying stuff to the media.

imo

its bad business?

As in Bill Parcells was bad business?

Bill Walsh?

BB?

Tom Landry?

Seriously? that post right there is the product of fact driven analysis or the product of frustration?

last season on BBI that John Lynch was a terrible GM??

One of many humorous sidebars to these type of rants.

In comment 14641189 Eric from BBI said:

Quote:

most likely go the route they did after 2006 when they forced coaching changes on Coughlin.

Problem with that is Shurmur is the play caller. How can you strip the Head Coach of play calling duties and still justify keeping him. He'd lose all of his credibility

In comment 14642731 Go Terps said:

Quote:

And if Shurmur is fired, it's bad business to keep the GM and head coach on different timelines. Sigh.

You really think there would be a problem if DG decided to go with a different coach next year? Describe the issues that would cause and supply the supporting evidence.

In comment 14642737 Bill2 said:

Quote:

its bad business? As in Bill Parcells was bad business? Bill Walsh? BB? Tom Landry? Seriously? that post right there is the product of fact driven analysis or the product of frustration?

You just named four coaches who were hired in a completely different era, where the considerations were completely different.

And let me understand something: so it's ok to fire the head coach after two years, but we can't fire the GM because it will make it harder to hire a qualified GM? What about hiring a coach that not only knows we've fired Shurmur after two years, but he is going to have to work with/under Gettleman?

And enough with blaming Reese. Reese didn't help hire Shurmur (who we're already universally deeming a failure), nor did he make the numerous mistakes that have been made with the current rosters and salary cap. That's not an emotional analysis. What you're calling emotion I'd call an unwillingness to engage in rationalization and excuse making.

And all of that isn't really the point. The point is Gettleman's gonna be out the door January 2021 at the latest. Play out the scenarios, and you'll find that one is most likely.

Ships passing in the night

Lets let it go as an unbridgeable gap in understanding each other that's not worth closing. Happens sometimes.

Its sports so not worth looping

All the best and hope you are well

When the Giants fire Gettleman 15 or so months from now we can revisit. In the meantime the losses will continue to mount.

is whether he is a good evaluator of player talent year-in and year-out.

Is DG?

DG is responsible for the roster.

Is the roster better than when he took over?

If you freeze me in this exact moment in time, I would say yes.

Shurmur is responsible for coaching and developing the roster.

If you freeze me in this moment in time I would say Shurmur is doing no better than McAdoo.

Also, I would say it should take longer to evaluate a general manager than a coach. I think Shurmur deserves the rest of the season, DG deserves at least one more year probably two as long as the roster continues to improve.

In comment 14642831 Jimmy Googs said:

Quote:

is whether he is a good evaluator of player talent year-in and year-out. Is DG?

I'm going to say yes right now. However, most people agree it's year 3 that you can really evaluate how good a draft was. That's why I think DG deserves at least next year. If in year 3 Carter puts it together and has 16 sacks? That matters in how you would evaluate his first draft.

If he's drafting well (jury is still out on that) and failing at strategic planning, pro scouting, coaching hires, and preventing his owner from doing stupid things then we still aren't going anywhere.

We know that in October of year two?

How exactly does a GM 'prevent the owner from doing stupid things' ?

In comment 14642846 arcarsenal said:

Quote:

How exactly does a GM 'prevent the owner from doing stupid things' ?

Establishing a good line of communication and being honest.

Then being willing to resign - the GM - if he finds an owner's decision detrimental to the team.

In comment 14642845 Sneakers O'toole said:

Quote:

We know that in October of year two?

We know he failed at three already. Beckham's contract and retaining Eli are set in stone as errors. Unless Shurmur suddenly learns how to coach, he failed there too.

or why something went wrong.

When executives and owners fuck up, there's a line out the door to explain things away and very sharp calls for "one more year, give it time, I trust him". Why does it happen this way?

In comment 14642851 bw in dc said:

Quote:

In comment 14642846 arcarsenal said: Quote: How exactly does a GM 'prevent the owner from doing stupid things' ? Establishing a good line of communication and being honest. Then being willing to resign - the GM - if he finds an owner's decision detrimental to the team.

Do we know that Gettleman and Mara don't have a good line of communication or that Gettleman isn't honest with Mara?

Maybe they do have a good relationship and agree on stupid decisions together. Or maybe Gettleman isn't quite willing to get up and leave his position because Mara sees something differently than he does.

What kinds of decisions do you think Mara would make that Gettleman would consider 'detrimental' enough to seriously consider walking away over?

Given that he apparently allowed Shurmur (whom he had just hired) to change his mind from trading Beckham to giving him $60M guaranteed, I'm skeptical as to whether Gettleman is actually being the level head in the room when other people (including the owner) are suggesting stupid shit like bringing Eli back.

Those are opinions about tge contract status of holdover players. We traded away one of thise contracts, essentially turing bonus monry paid into new players and picks.

And the decision on Eli essentially jad to ne made in March. Keeping him on a contract that will be off the books tjis next offseason was a no brainer.

2020 is the year thats been circled on the calendar from day one.

I suck at texting

In comment 14642858 arcarsenal said:

Quote:

Do we know that Gettleman and Mara don't have a good line of communication or that Gettleman isn't honest with Mara? Maybe they do have a good relationship and agree on stupid decisions together. Or maybe Gettleman isn't quite willing to get up and leave his position because Mara sees something differently than he does. What kinds of decisions do you think Mara would make that Gettleman would consider 'detrimental' enough to seriously consider walking away over?

I was answering the question in the broader sense.

Specifically as this relates to Mara and Gettleman, I obviously don't know the actual relationship.

But I feel very comfortable in this piece - that Gettleman took this job because (1) there was no market demand for him elsewhere, (2) he knew Mara wanted to keep Eli as the QB, which made that a condition of the hire, and (3) he need to hire a coach who would be comfortable with Eli as the starting QB in 2018.

So by relenting to #2, that essentially forced Gettleman to come out of the gate trying to build a winner with a QB that many thought was on that wrong side of the production curve. For my tastes, that got the Owner/GM relationship off on the wrong foot. And further compounded our problem(s)...

I do think it's possible, to your supposition, that Gettleman and Mara could be birds of a feather and just end up in the same dumb spot with critical decisions...

In comment 14642862 Sneakers O'toole said:

Quote:

Those are opinions about tge contract status of holdover players. We traded away one of thise contracts, essentially turing bonus monry paid into new players and picks. And the decision on Eli essentially jad to ne made in March. Keeping him on a contract that will be off the books tjis next offseason was a no brainer. 2020 is the year thats been circled on the calendar from day one.

The decision on Eli should have been made the moment Gettleman was hired. But set that aside...how do you think things are looking for 2020?

- The head coach is incompetent, and his staff is generally poor with few exceptions
- The QB is a question mark
- Left tackle and right tackle are both minuses
- The wide receivers are poor
- The only edge rusher of note (Golden) probably won't be here
- The only MIKE of quality will be coming off an ACL tear
- The secondary is a giant question mark

Does this feel like an 11-5 team in 2020?

Here's where my real problems are with the current situation...

I don't have the necessary intel on what went down regarding the decision they made to ultimately keep Eli here this year. It's my personal belief that Mara had the largest hand in it and that the GM and coach probably would have preferred to go draft Jones (or whichever QB).

I think Mara was shellshocked over what went down with Geno Smith/Eli in 2017, became petrified of something resembling a Simms redux, and wanted Eli here for another go around where he could sort of 'restore' the perception that he can still play behind what was supposed to be an improved offensive line and more competitive football team.

So, that brings me to Gettleman. The Eli part of this entire equation clearly impacted the flexibility of the 2019 Giants. If Gettleman disagreed and preferred to move on from Eli, I'm not sure he has or had the authority to make that call. Could he realistically have changed Mara's thinking on Eli? If so, could he have fielded a more competitive team this season with additional cap flexibility?

Does Gettleman have the final call on the coaching hires? This is another question I don't know the exact answer to. But the answer would impact my thinking.

I'm not bailing Gettleman out of this - it's possible he actually just agreed with Mara and wanted to give Eli another run at it. But, John Mara is where I keep arriving when I'm looking for the source of this mess the Giants have been in the midst of.

And that's why I'm skeptical that cleaning house again might not get us anywhere. If Gettleman and Shurmur go, who is going to be the loudest voice in the room when it comes to Gettleman's successor? Will that guy have full-autonomy to choose his own coach, etc?

If Mara fires Gettleman only to turn around and hire Kevin Abrams... we might end up in an even worse place than this.

These aren't necessarily reasons to retain the GM. Just points to consider.

Last year, and this one, were mostly just about stabilization. You were not going to fix the mess that was left in 2017 in FA in 2 years. Fan expectations are out of sync with the reality of where this team is or was.

A team that was in open revolt no less.

Are made with cap space in 2020 in mind, that's been clear.

I don't disagree with what you're saying. And fundamentally, Mara is absolutely at the center of the problem.

I certainly don't want Abrams to be the next GM...I've been calling for a complete front office revolution for a couple years now. But I don't think Abrams is a worse prospect as a GM than Gettleman is. I don't think he's better either...I think he's just more of the same (in the same way that Gettleman was more of the same when he was hired).

I don't just want Gettleman and Shurmur gone for the sake of them being gone. I'm just hoping Mara wakes up to the fact that it's time for the full measure - completely restructure the organization with outside oversight. It's time to stop passing the torch from "family" member to "family" member and start building something new from the ground up...because that's where we are: the ground floor. We're no closer to being a winner today than we were when Gettleman took the reins.

We're adrift. Nowhere.

In comment 14642879 Sneakers O'toole said:

Quote:

Are made with cap space in 2020 in mind, that's been clear.

So what happens in 2020? We spend on big name FAs? Like the Jets just did? You think paying through the nose for JaDeveon Clowney and Jack Conklin is going to get us closer to the Super Bowl?

I think it's just going to dig the hole deeper.

I think the plan is pretty much that - to finally compete in 2020. But, to get there, we have to actually start improving at some point.

The Cardinals game really took a lot of wind out of my sails. That was a game I thought this team was ready to step up and win. Instead, we were given another display of the coach's incompetence and an embarrassing loss at home.

When are the Giants going to actually start improving and winning football games? If we wind up 4-12 or 5-11, what gives anyone confidence that we'll be ready to compete next season?

The plan can't be to go out and buy a competitive team with cap dollars. We tried to fix the defense that way in 2016 and just 3 years later, almost all of those guys are gone and all that's left is Jenkins and over 10 million dollars in dead money from Vernon and Harrison.