Barring the unforeseen the Giants will be entering this offseason with a top 5-ish draft pick and some money to spend in the free agent market. In that sense, we aren't all that far off from where we were in January 2018: a bad football team with opportunities for growth on the horizon.
However, there's one key difference between January 2018 and January 2020 - this time the decisions look like they'll be made in large part by two men squarely on the hot seat: Gettleman and Shurmur. Given their tenuous job situation, can we expect them to avoid a short term splurge at the expense of the long term?
When I think about this, there's a timeline that keeps playing out in my head, and it goes like this:
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December 2019
- Giants finish 5-11, both Gettleman and Shurmur keep their jobs
January-May 2020
-Giants spend big bucks to sign FAs (think Shaq Barrett, Jadeveon Clowney, Jack Conklin, AJ Green, Amari Cooper). -They also don't consider drafting a QB after all, they just drafted Jones
Fall 2020
- under Shurmur's inept coaching the Giants sputter to another 5-11 season
January 2021
- Gettleman and Shurmur are fired
- New GM and head coach are hired
January-May 2021
- New GM and head coach commence purging roster of contracts they don't want, resulting in significant dead money on cap
- New GM and head coach decide they don't like Daniel Jones and want their own QB
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Going through that scenario, the obvious question arises: why didn't we just fire Gettleman and Shurmur in January 2020?
Unless you believe that Shurmur can coach a team to something greater than 5-11, this story ends with Gettleman and Shurmur being fired. So why allow them the opportunity to make a bunch of desperate decisions in January-May 2020?
We didn't dig this hole overnight, and we arent fixing it overnigbt.
I certainly don't want Abrams to be the next GM...I've been calling for a complete front office revolution for a couple years now. But I don't think Abrams is a worse prospect as a GM than Gettleman is. I don't think he's better either...I think he's just more of the same (in the same way that Gettleman was more of the same when he was hired).
I don't just want Gettleman and Shurmur gone for the sake of them being gone. I'm just hoping Mara wakes up to the fact that it's time for the full measure - completely restructure the organization with outside oversight. It's time to stop passing the torch from "family" member to "family" member and start building something new from the ground up...because that's where we are: the ground floor. We're no closer to being a winner today than we were when Gettleman took the reins.
We're adrift. Nowhere.
I guess that's the shitty part. It's a matter of hope when we boil it all down. We literally have to hope that John Mara suddenly has some sort of revelation that causes him to change his approach and thinking as far as who he hires next.
Sadly, I have very little confidence in that happening.
We didn't dig this hole overnight, and we arent fixing it overnigbt.
I'm all for using FA to plug holes, and I want to spend every cent of the cap that we can...but not in the way we're about to. I think you hit the nail on the head...2020 is being viewed as the year to compete. So what is Gettleman going to do? Spend big on big name FAs hoping they kickstart the turnaround.
What happens when we finish 5-11 again because Shurmur still sucks, or because we got a new coach and his system doesn't mesh with the team Gettleman put together? Or maybe we fall into the "QB whisperer" trap again with Shurmur's replacement. What happens when that whisperer wants a different QB from Jones? Does Gettleman get his way with his guy (Jones) or does the new coach get to pick?
This is a mess.
So, let's say the team starts to more resemble a 'Gettleman team' next year, but we only win 6 games.
Is that satisfactory? Does that buy him another year? Or does the team absolutely have to win next year to justify keeping him here?
I fall into this trap a lot. I keep finding ways to give them more time - but at some point we're either moving forward, or we're treading water.
The Cardinals game was something I looked at as a potential measuring stick. Could we get out of the basement and stop being considered one of the worst teams in football?
Nope.
Being realistic with what I think could actually be a possibility and what has extreme odds against... I'd probably settle for the coach and his staff getting axed by season's end.
At least with a stronger coaching hire and a smart offseason, we actually could potentially be a relatively good team next year. But I'm pretty much relegating myself to thinking we're never going to get anywhere with Shurmur. He's in over his head.
It's year one.
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Why if being a Giants fan is causing so much angst, anger,and anxiety then why waste time? Just choose another team. One that wins all the time so your expectations will be met ALL the time. Giants ain't listening to you, anyhow. Neither DG PS or JM care what you think they should do.
If you think the Giants don't react to the fanbase you haven't been paying attention.
Management does listen if many fans are loud. Really loud in multiple areas where profits decline.
In answer to your OP, what you foretell may actually come true but maybe not. Looking at this team and the results, I'd be onboard right now for a new head coach and assistants next year. I don't think the games are being managed well and the players are not performing well.
I'd give the GM one more year. Having inherited a roster devoid of good young players at nearly every position takes time to fix. If after 3 years the team is still a failure I can see trying something...anything. Tear it all down, admit hiring DG was a fail and hope to do better.
IMO, canning the GM after only 2 years in this case seems rushed and likely to cause a few more years of misery.
They are now in year three with Lynch/Shanahan. They were a 4 win team last year, but they're 6-0 this year with a defense as good or better than anyone in football sans New England and look like they are one of the strongest teams in the NFC.
The 2016 Niners team that Kelly coached was as abysmal and horrendous as the 2017 team that McAdoo coached. It was a rock-bottom year for them. They had nothing there.
So, by your timeline, this would be 'year one' for them - and they're doing quite well. If the 49ers were 2-4 right now and looked like we did again, I think it would be fair to start wondering whether or not Lynch/Shanahan deserve more time.
Shouldn't we be able to expect NYG to execute this rebuild in a similar timeframe?
If we're still a bad team next year, something isn't working. And if Shurmur is still here, we probably will be.
They are now in year three with Lynch/Shanahan. They were a 4 win team last year, but they're 6-0 this year with a defense as good or better than anyone in football sans New England and look like they are one of the strongest teams in the NFC.
The 2016 Niners team that Kelly coached was as abysmal and horrendous as the 2017 team that McAdoo coached. It was a rock-bottom year for them. They had nothing there.
So, by your timeline, this would be 'year one' for them - and they're doing quite well. If the 49ers were 2-4 right now and looked like we did again, I think it would be fair to start wondering whether or not Lynch/Shanahan deserve more time.
Shouldn't we be able to expect NYG to execute this rebuild in a similar timeframe?
If we're still a bad team next year, something isn't working. And if Shurmur is still here, we probably will be.
The 49ers lost their starting QB in week 3 last season.
The Giants started this year both with their franchise QB and their QB of the future on the roster. The Giants might still match their win total.
Like I said - not against moving on from both - it's just that we run into the same problem in having zero-confidence with the people responsible for hiring the replacements when we do.
Terps: I remember you referencing McAdoo (hopefully) being to us what Tomlin was to the Steelers. It was going down that path in 2016 where he coached very well. Also, just for fun - watch McAdoo’s post game locker room speeches vs Shurmur. McAdoo has so much more of a presence. Honestly, this wasn’t a bad plan.
This all started to fall apart with the Eli benching & McAdoo as a very young coach had problems with the malcontents on the roster. Knowing what I know now, I’d rather just keep Reese & McAdoo if this was the alternative.
Gettleman is not an awful GM imo. Unlike Shurmur, he has some success on his resume. I don’t think he’s the right man for this job right now though. Shurmur is a victim of the peter principle, nothing more to say. He can’t handle the job.
Where I think a lot of people are wrong is the assumption Mara will sit tight. He’s had a rough 5 years, but he is MILES ahead of Dolan/Wilpon still. Recent history has not stated he will do nothing here.
-Reeves gone after 3 years
-Fassel gone after the first really bad year. Say what you will about Fassel, his teams always competed.
-Coughlin gone after 3 bad years, but he won 2 SB’s here and will be held to a higher standard than Pat Shurmur.
-McAdoo didn’t even get a full season after going 11-5!
People speak in absolutes saying Shurmur will be back, I don’t see it. Let’s look at their head coaching records 23 games into their Giant careers:
McAdoo: 12-11
Shurmur: 7-16
Shurmur is far from a lock to be back.
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San Francisco is probably a team we should be looking at...
They are now in year three with Lynch/Shanahan. They were a 4 win team last year, but they're 6-0 this year with a defense as good or better than anyone in football sans New England and look like they are one of the strongest teams in the NFC.
The 2016 Niners team that Kelly coached was as abysmal and horrendous as the 2017 team that McAdoo coached. It was a rock-bottom year for them. They had nothing there.
So, by your timeline, this would be 'year one' for them - and they're doing quite well. If the 49ers were 2-4 right now and looked like we did again, I think it would be fair to start wondering whether or not Lynch/Shanahan deserve more time.
Shouldn't we be able to expect NYG to execute this rebuild in a similar timeframe?
If we're still a bad team next year, something isn't working. And if Shurmur is still here, we probably will be.
The 49ers lost their starting QB in week 3 last season.
The Giants started this year both with their franchise QB and their QB of the future on the roster. The Giants might still match their win total.
Losing Garropalo was the reason for them having one of the worst defenses in football last year?
Forget the QB - look at the difference in the defense. The QB isn't the architect behind this 6-0 start. He's not even playing particularly well.
Thanks
Thanks
Eric Studesville
Steve Wilks
Shurmur
McDaniels
Patricia
Spagnuolo
Link - ( New Window )
I'd love to see the Giants emulate what they're doing.
I know many on here believe that quality is better than quantity but I do not, especially when you hope to already have your QB and need talent all-over-the-place.
Not as long as we've been (and still are), sadly.
The Giants started this year both with their franchise QB and their QB of the future on the roster. The Giants might still match their win total.
The Giants willingly inflicted upon themselves the financial equivalent of Eli Manning tearing his Achilles in practice after week 2. The sheer stupidity of how they handled the QB position this spring can't be overstated.
This roster was rotten to the core.
This roster was rotten to the core.
And it's still really, really poor.
I do wonder if we bailed on McAdoo too soon. He likely won’t ever get another job and he did some things very badly. However, he was very high on Mahomes. He truly looked out for the best interest in the franchise when he knew Eli no longer had it. And, he pushed every right button in 2016.
Would keeping McAdoo for 2018 & 19 have been worse than what we have now?
- The Giants were in fine cap shape when he was hired
- This abhorrent "core" he inherited net him a 1st, 2 3rds, a 4th, a 5th, Zeitler and Peppers
- He acquired Ogletree, Solder, and Tate
- He extended Shepard
- He's had 4 first round picks, 2 in the top 6
- He's had 8 top 70 picks
- He chose 3 CBs -- then chose to keep Jenkins, who had a statistically atrocious season last year and pay him 15M
- He chose to pay a QB 17M after picking one in the top 6
- He's about to have another top 10 pick
- The Giants are back to being in fine cap shape
Believing this is a young team that will blossom is one thing, believing Gettleman was left some hole he's desperately digging out of is preposterous.
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I hope you're right.
I do wonder if we bailed on McAdoo too soon. He likely won’t ever get another job and he did some things very badly. However, he was very high on Mahomes. He truly looked out for the best interest in the franchise when he knew Eli no longer had it. And, he pushed every right button in 2016.
Would keeping McAdoo for 2018 & 19 have been worse than what we have now?
I'd rather have kept McAdoo and blown up the roster, which as Sneaker says was rotten to the core. McAdoo was a really good gameday coach in 2016, and he had a good gameplan going into the playoff game until Beckham & Co. ruined the start of that game. At least he showed that.
Has Shurmur shown anything positive? If he has, I don't see it.
I'd love to see the Giants emulate what they're doing.
Anybody notice the Niners run the ball a ton with 2 undrafted free agents and Tevin Coleman who they picked up in free agency this year for $10m/2 year deal.
just sayin'...
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The 2019 49ers are a team that runs the ball a ton, runs the ball pretty effectively, and leans on their top-flight defense.
I'd love to see the Giants emulate what they're doing.
Anybody notice the Niners run the ball a ton with 2 undrafted free agents and Tevin Coleman who they picked up in free agency this year for $10m/2 year deal.
just sayin'...
In year 3 Lynch has the 9ers turned around having roughly the same draft resources Gettleman has had in 2. Having roughly as bad as a team as Gettleman inherited.
Going into year 3, Gettleman will have had no less than 5 first round picks, likely 3 in the top 10. Likely 10 top 70 picks. But it's "year one" for him.
What fix would you have done coming out of '17?
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The 2019 49ers are a team that runs the ball a ton, runs the ball pretty effectively, and leans on their top-flight defense.
I'd love to see the Giants emulate what they're doing.
Anybody notice the Niners run the ball a ton with 2 undrafted free agents and Tevin Coleman who they picked up in free agency this year for $10m/2 year deal.
just sayin'...
Don't forget that they also paid McKinnon. He hasn't played because he got hurt in both camps so far. McKinnon's cap hit will be about the same as Barkley's next year.
SF is actually spending more money than we are on the RB position - they're just spread out more. I guess we can debate which strategy is better - they're running the ball more effectively than we are so far; but I'm not sure that's not more a symptom of the coach than the personnel.
2017 (no Andrew Luck) - 4-12, fires Pagano
2018 (Hires Reich and Luck returns) - 10-6 and a road playoff win
2019 (Luck retires on the eve of the season) - 4-2
He acquired Jacoby Brissett straight up for Phillip Dorsett. Anyone want to know how Brissett is performing this year?
65%, 14/3, 1388 yards, 101 QBR.
Combined this year and next Brissett is making only $7M more than Eli is this year, and they didn't need to spend the 6th pick overall for him.
The Colts went through Luck's sudden, catastrophic retirement and they aren't missing a beat. Are they blaming Ballard's predecessor? Did they need 3 years of bad football to turn around the roster before they could be "graded"?
No. They are actually adults.
Not taking a shot at you. Just making a quip on Gettleman.
FYI...York basically said Lynch and Shanahan were given the same type of 6 year contract. And they were in this for a long term solution...
LINK - ( New Window )
Losing Garropalo was the reason for them having one of the worst defenses in football last year?
Forget the QB - look at the difference in the defense. The QB isn't the architect behind this 6-0 start. He's not even playing particularly well.
Of course not - but you're playing the 'well look, they only won 4 games' game.
They were sending Nick Mullens out there at QB. They ended up 21st overall, with a decline in offensive production over the last 13 games so let's call it 23rd. This year, they're 11th offensively.
With their actual starting QB in the lineup, not only would the pressure on their D been significantly reduced but it's fair to assume they would have won a few more games.
The Giants are set to look just as bad on paper, if not worse, than last year.
I'm not bailing Gettleman out of this - it's possible he actually just agreed with Mara and wanted to give Eli another run at it. But, John Mara is where I keep arriving when I'm looking for the source of this mess the Giants have been in the midst of.
And that's why I'm skeptical that cleaning house again might not get us anywhere. If Gettleman and Shurmur go, who is going to be the loudest voice in the room when it comes to Gettleman's successor? Will that guy have full-autonomy to choose his own coach, etc?
If Mara fires Gettleman only to turn around and hire Kevin Abrams... we might end up in an even worse place than this.
These aren't necessarily reasons to retain the GM. Just points to consider.
Mara is indeed the problem because he has created this culture of clones. Everyone buys into the same philosophy. It's just one big echo chamber at Jints Central. Everyone is cut from the same cloth of thinking.
We hit on this last night. Abrams is the heir apparent. So it'll be more of the same whether or not DG goes now or ceremoniously passes the baton to KA.
By being a card carrying member of Jints Central and the "Giants Way", and hired by Accorsi, DG lost all credibility as an independent voice to truly shake up this organization. And that was the absolute last thing we needed after the Reese/Coughlin Era. Which was simply one card carrying member (Accorsi) handing off the another card carrying member (Reese). It's just way to incestuous at this point...
Until that process is broken, things will stay broken.
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I'm not bailing Gettleman out of this - it's possible he actually just agreed with Mara and wanted to give Eli another run at it. But, John Mara is where I keep arriving when I'm looking for the source of this mess the Giants have been in the midst of.
And that's why I'm skeptical that cleaning house again might not get us anywhere. If Gettleman and Shurmur go, who is going to be the loudest voice in the room when it comes to Gettleman's successor? Will that guy have full-autonomy to choose his own coach, etc?
If Mara fires Gettleman only to turn around and hire Kevin Abrams... we might end up in an even worse place than this.
These aren't necessarily reasons to retain the GM. Just points to consider.
Mara is indeed the problem because he has created this culture of clones. Everyone buys into the same philosophy. It's just one big echo chamber at Jints Central. Everyone is cut from the same cloth of thinking.
We hit on this last night. Abrams is the heir apparent. So it'll be more of the same whether or not DG goes now or ceremoniously passes the baton to KA.
By being a card carrying member of Jints Central and the "Giants Way", and hired by Accorsi, DG lost all credibility as an independent voice to truly shake up this organization. And that was the absolute last thing we needed after the Reese/Coughlin Era. Which was simply one card carrying member (Accorsi) handing off the another card carrying member (Reese). It's just way to incestuous at this point...
Until that process is broken, things will stay broken.
The Maras have how many Lombardis vs your idol Danny?
Would Giants fans be as receptive the next time around?
Would Giants fans be as receptive the next time around?
You know Mara. He loves loyalty and longevity. Abrams was likely the runner-up to DG for the job. So that's going to build equity for the next time. I don't wan to say it's a fait accompli, but it's probably damn close...