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Today you saw examples 1A & 1B why you don't invest in RB's

Josh in the City : 11/10/2019 6:54 pm
Today's performances by Saquon and Leveon are all you needed to see to understand why you don't invest in RB's in today's NFL. Whether you want to blame it on injury, situation, offensive line, it simply doesn't matter. RB's are successful when the situation around them is ideal and they aren't when it becomes their responsibility to lift everyone else. It's are a complementary position, not a prime one.

On top of that, the shelf life of RB's and their ability to stay on the field are both below optimal. For better or worse, workhorse backs take a beating and as seasons progress the bumps and bruises starts to affect them.

As much as we all love Barkley as a player, taking him at #2 last year was a collasal mistake. It would have been a good pick if everything else was in place and we needed a playmaker to get us over the top. Unfortunately, nothing else was in place and by the time everything gets in place, he'll be done with his rookie contract and it will be foolish to pay him what he's going to want. That pick set this franchise back and this is not soething that's being said in hindsight. Many people here said it at the time.

It's time this team invests in the offensive line and defense FIRST before addressing positions that don't mean anything in today's league. This franchise has been a failure for far too long and it's inexcusable.
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I don’t owe Gettelman anything  
UConn4523 : 11/12/2019 8:24 pm : link
couldn’t care less if he gets fired or not, same for anyone on the teams I root for. So no I’m not defending him, I’m allowed to think a poster is wrong while also not thinking everything our GM does is correct.

Isn’t that what you are lecturing me about?
CMC being great is irrelevant to taking RB with #2 pick  
Junior22 : 11/12/2019 8:28 pm : link
As good as CMC is how many playoff seasons have the Panthers had or how much of a difference has he made to the win and loss record? Gurley was irrelevant in the Rams lone super bowl run and a guy with a fat stomach out of the couch carried the load in their run.

The only stat that matters is Barkleys record with the Giants

He has won 5 while being the starter for the whole game in 23 NFL games. 5 wins folks in 23 nfl games where he has played the entire game
RE: I don’t know why people can’t just admit  
Gatorade Dunk : 11/12/2019 8:37 pm : link
In comment 14677941 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
there isn’t some hard rule. Will that hurt your egos? CMC was a good pick, there’s no reason to twist the narrative and asterisk it.

I'm gonna go ahead and move the goalposts really quickly if you don't mind...

I don't need a hard rule to say that when your entire roster is a POS and it's going to take you three years minimum to rebuild it, that taking a RB as the very first centerpiece of your rebuild means that you're wasting such a large chunk of his prime years (and the only affordable years of his career unless he ends up not being worth the #2 pick in the first place) and wasting a huge opportunity to impact the foundation of the roster in a more meaningful way.

But Barkley wasn't drafted to be the centerpiece of a rebuild. He was drafted with a different vision of the team's status at the time in mind. That, IMO, is the underlying problem and a far bigger one. Even if you set aside whether taking a RB at #2 is a good idea in a general sense, it's really hard to accept the actions of a GM who fundamentally misjudges the quality of his own roster. And when we see that same misjudgment in the players acquired from other teams' rosters, it's alarming, because then there's a really good chance that it's not just bad luck.
2016 Panthers were 2nd in sacks  
widmerseyebrow : 11/12/2019 8:42 pm : link
2016
LT: Michael Oher
LG: Andrew Norwell
C: Ryan Kalil
RG: Trai Turner
RT: Daryl Williams/Mike Remmers

2018
LT: Matt Kalil(injured)/Chris Clark
LG: Greg Van Roten
C: Ryan Kalil
RG: Trai Turner
RT: Daryl Williams(injured)/Taylor Moton

2019
LT: Daryl Williams
LG: Greg Van Roten
C: Matt Paradis (FA)
RG: Trai Turner
RT: Taylor Moton

Of course shit happens and there isn't perfect continuity: guys got hurt, guys retired, etc. but I think you could take any combination of the above lineman and name them starters on the 2018 or 2019 Giants. Of course they're not all perfect, the Giants are just that bad there. The Panthers even have backups capable of playing in the NFL.

I don't think it's debatable which team was better positioned to draft a running back in the first round and actually see dividends for the team within that rookie contract.
Fans fall in love with the sexy pick that is on Sports Center  
Junior22 : 11/12/2019 8:43 pm : link
Good football minds do not take a running back that high when you had serious issues at the premium positions starting with Eli, OT, DE, LB, OG

Plenty of running backs have had more of an impact on their teams than Barkley and were drafted in later rounds and some not even drafted.

Nelson OG should have been the pick if this was about extending Eli's career. He would have done far more for Eli than a RB. We were sold a bill of goods by DG that SB was touched by the hand of god and is a generational talent. Really? this generational talent has 5 wins in almost 2 full years and fans blame the coaches and oline and blha blah blah. But if you are taking that high you are expected to play above the surrounding pieces. SB has done nothing in almost 2 years to help the Giants win on the field.
There's disagreement about drafting Barkley  
widmerseyebrow : 11/12/2019 8:44 pm : link
but I think we're all in agreement that it was criminal for Gettleman to assess the 2018/2019 Giants as being a few pieces away from contention.
RE: I don’t know why people can’t just admit  
bw in dc : 11/12/2019 8:44 pm : link
In comment 14677941 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
there isn’t some hard rule. Will that hurt your egos? CMC was a good pick, there’s no reason to twist the narrative and asterisk it.


CMC has good stats. I'll give you that.

In CMC's first year, he had decent production and the Panthers made the playoffs. But CMC didn't put them over the top.

The Panthers didn't make the playoffs last year because the more important position, QB/Newton, got hurt and that derailed their season. CMC had great stats.

The Panthers are one game over 500 this year. Last year they averaged 26ppg and this year they are averaging 25ppg. CMC has great stats.

So where exactly is CMC making this big difference?
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Terps  
MM_in_NYC : 11/12/2019 8:49 pm : link
In comment 14677781 .McL. said:
Quote:


What bothers me more is that the Giants used resources to bring in a player at a position that was manned by players with NFL level talent, while there are so many positions on this team that don't. The DL may not have been great, but it wasn't broken... The OL is broken, ER is broken, CB is broken, FS is broken, WR is broken. Fix those first (preferably in that order) for gods sakes.


this is very well put
Who here can argue against  
Junior22 : 11/12/2019 8:51 pm : link
Having Quenten Nelson and Will Hernandez as the 2 first picks last year and Gallman as the starter having those 2 guards and Jones this year.
Well I know he’s flat out winning them games  
UConn4523 : 11/12/2019 8:54 pm : link
the Panthers aren’t a very good team, and they have a winning record. Who else is getting the job done because it isn’t the defense.

And what’s with the stats comment? Are all those giant gains and TDs not helping them? This is a very hard conversation to have if your argument is that his stats are pretty. Pointless in fact.
RE: RE: I don’t know why people can’t just admit  
FatMan in Charlotte : 11/12/2019 8:57 pm : link
In comment 14677973 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 14677941 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


there isn’t some hard rule. Will that hurt your egos? CMC was a good pick, there’s no reason to twist the narrative and asterisk it.



CMC has good stats. I'll give you that.

In CMC's first year, he had decent production and the Panthers made the playoffs. But CMC didn't put them over the top.

The Panthers didn't make the playoffs last year because the more important position, QB/Newton, got hurt and that derailed their season. CMC had great stats.

The Panthers are one game over 500 this year. Last year they averaged 26ppg and this year they are averaging 25ppg. CMC has great stats.

So where exactly is CMC making this big difference?


This is a fun exercise.

You could likely do something similar for:

Julio Jones
AJ Green
Larry Fitzgerald (until this season)
Odell Beckham

you can do it for many top OL players taken in the draft. You can do it for Edge Rushers. Pick a mediocre team and list their top draft picks, even ones who are excelling. It is fun stuff!

Khalil Mack cost two 1st round picks. Why aren't the Bears dominating their division?

We talk about "more important positions", but what is it really getting at? The idea of fungibility?

Because what should be apparent to most people here is that average players at any position are fungible and great players at any position are not. Twist it all you want, but it doesn't change that great players have impacts. And no single great player can lift a team on his own.
RE: RE: RE: I don’t know why people can’t just admit  
Junior22 : 11/12/2019 9:03 pm : link
In comment 14677990 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
In comment 14677973 bw in dc said:


Quote:


In comment 14677941 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


there isn’t some hard rule. Will that hurt your egos? CMC was a good pick, there’s no reason to twist the narrative and asterisk it.



CMC has good stats. I'll give you that.

In CMC's first year, he had decent production and the Panthers made the playoffs. But CMC didn't put them over the top.

The Panthers didn't make the playoffs last year because the more important position, QB/Newton, got hurt and that derailed their season. CMC had great stats.

The Panthers are one game over 500 this year. Last year they averaged 26ppg and this year they are averaging 25ppg. CMC has great stats.

So where exactly is CMC making this big difference?



This is a fun exercise.

You could likely do something similar for:

Julio Jones
AJ Green
Larry Fitzgerald (until this season)
Odell Beckham

you can do it for many top OL players taken in the draft. You can do it for Edge Rushers. Pick a mediocre team and list their top draft picks, even ones who are excelling. It is fun stuff!

Khalil Mack cost two 1st round picks. Why aren't the Bears dominating their division?

We talk about "more important positions", but what is it really getting at? The idea of fungibility?

Because what should be apparent to most people here is that average players at any position are fungible and great players at any position are not. Twist it all you want, but it doesn't change that great players have impacts. And no single great player can lift a team on his own.


Next to RB, WR is the next least important position to waste high picks. So not sure what you are referring to. The Bears have a great defense and last year Mack led that defense to the playoffs. What has SB done? Only reason Giants took SB was because they thought Eli still could play and they were wrong just like many fans thought. If the Giants had a real smart man running the team they would have seen that Eli was toast 4 years ago and taking a RB was not going to make Eli play like 2011.

They misjudged the whole thing and now have a rb who cannot play above the talent around him. Daniel Jones is making more of an impact then SB has in 2 seasons
RE: Well I know he’s flat out winning them games  
Junior22 : 11/12/2019 9:05 pm : link
In comment 14677986 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
the Panthers aren’t a very good team, and they have a winning record. Who else is getting the job done because it isn’t the defense.

And what’s with the stats comment? Are all those giant gains and TDs not helping them? This is a very hard conversation to have if your argument is that his stats are pretty. Pointless in fact.


The Panthers have a winning record because they found a potential franchise qb. If they had no Allen and they had an average back up they would not be winning. CMC is a great player at an irrelevant position
Joe Thomas was the 3rd overall pick....  
Britt in VA : 11/12/2019 9:10 pm : link
he was a 10 time Pro bowler, and a 7 time All Pro.

What good did it do the Browns?
OK..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 11/12/2019 9:18 pm : link
Kyle Allen is a potential franchise QB?

That might be the best thing I've read all day.

Let me see - CMC's impact is being debated but you'll say with a straight face that Allen is possibly a franchise QB?

Holy shit.
I'm not underselling CMC...  
bw in dc : 11/12/2019 9:29 pm : link
I'm just not overselling him. I've seen many RBs put up great stats. And even carry a team for a few weeks. But many of those teams with those great RBs could only get so far.

My point is that a RBs value/impact on a game is limited. Other positions just have greater impact on the outcome of a game.

Yes, it's a team game and you need many parts in place to achieve success. Absolutely. But you can get there, I believe, more effectively by solving the RB position without spending high draft capital or high cap dollars.
There is an underlying problem with many of these debates  
.McL. : 11/12/2019 9:31 pm : link
Those who don't believe in the reduced positional value of RB do 2 things.

1) They throw out examples of a RB that is doing well, and equating that production to the teams wins.

2) Question those who do believe in the reduced positional value to explain why and how the devaluation works.

Jay in Arlington posted a comment on another thread earlier today, where he had work experience with a technology team that came in selling a big data statistical solution to something. The business asked the tech why it worked. Their response was "Does it matter?". They had a mountain of evidence that showed that their system worked, and to answer the question as to why, would take years and paying over 1.5M dollars to work out and explain. THey decided they didn't really care why it it worked.

At the end of the day, every example that people want to throw out there has been included in the data and the analysis. All those positve example should tilt the final statitical results toward the positive for the RB. Except that there are so many negative examples that they don't.

We should not care why the statistics provide the results that they provide. Maybe the resources used on the RB would have gone to better use somewhere else on the team, maybe the team had an over-reliance on the one player making them one dimensional and easier to defend. There may be a thousands other reasons why. And every situation may have different whys.

All the results positive and negative have been included in the results, The results are the results, it doesn't really matter why.
The results clearly state  
.McL. : 11/12/2019 9:34 pm : link
That RB production does not correlate to wins.

YPC does not correlate to wins.
Total yards does not correlate to wins.

Running efficiency has some correlation to wins.

Passing efficiency has the most correlation to wins.
RE: The results clearly state  
FatMan in Charlotte : 11/12/2019 9:37 pm : link
In comment 14678035 .McL. said:
Quote:
That RB production does not correlate to wins.

YPC does not correlate to wins.
Total yards does not correlate to wins.

Running efficiency has some correlation to wins.

Passing efficiency has the most correlation to wins.


As a person who reportedly understands statistics, what has the highest correlation to winning over the past 25 years?
Kyle Allen is doing what he’s doing  
UConn4523 : 11/12/2019 9:39 pm : link
because of the run game. He’s barely passing for 200 yards per game.

This is what I mean about creating a narrative. It’s a fact that McCaffery is their team MVP and why the offense even scores points but he’s a RB and that hurts the argument, so let’s just default to making things up.

Kyle Allen is t turning the ball over. But he isn’t winning them games.
RE: RE: The results clearly state  
.McL. : 11/12/2019 9:43 pm : link
In comment 14678037 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
In comment 14678035 .McL. said:


Quote:


That RB production does not correlate to wins.

YPC does not correlate to wins.
Total yards does not correlate to wins.

Running efficiency has some correlation to wins.

Passing efficiency has the most correlation to wins.



As a person who reportedly understands statistics, what has the highest correlation to winning over the past 25 years?

Passing efficiency...
And that’s extremely flawed  
UConn4523 : 11/12/2019 9:49 pm : link
since running the ball directly impacts passing efficiency.

This whole argument is so odd. Why do teams even run the ball then if the value is so low?
RE: And that’s extremely flawed  
.McL. : 11/12/2019 10:17 pm : link
In comment 14678057 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
since running the ball directly impacts passing efficiency.

This whole argument is so odd. Why do teams even run the ball then if the value is so low?

See, here we go with the whys...
Over the course of a large enough sample, and 32 teams, 16 games a year each, for 20 - 25 years is a large enough sample set, there are teams that had good running and bad running. Those teams offset each other, by definition, in the final analysis. Same when you look at running the ball, there have been teams that passed well, and teams that passed poorly. In the end the overall passing efficiency is the stat that correlates the best. As far as I have seen the best measure of passing efficiency is ANY/A (adjusted net yard per attempt - it accounts for sacks and interceptions), but there are various debates over the best passing efficiency stat.
But to address your question...  
.McL. : 11/12/2019 10:20 pm : link
Teams are running less and less...

And when they run they look for running efficiency, which does have a mild correlation with winning.

What's more is that it can be shown that teams do not run the ball to get the lead. Teams pass the ball to get the lead. Teams run the ball to run out the clock and protect that lead.

Of course that's an over simplification. Football strategy is more complex, and deception is a key element. And running the ball can be part of the deception.
There's only..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 11/12/2019 10:27 pm : link
been one consistent indicator to winning.

But it isn't repeatable nor something you can control.

Team health.

And it is yet one more stat that the Pats don't follow the rule on.

“Here we go again with the whys”  
UConn4523 : 11/12/2019 10:36 pm : link
whatever man. You speak in absolutes so much it’s nauseating. You aren’t sharing any original ideas. I’m watching the same games you are and I see teams that can run the ball win more easily. Ravens, 49ers, Seahawks, Cowboys, (why did the Eagles regress?), Packers are better than they’ve been in years because they are running.

There’s no golden rule. Teams win many ways, regardless of what the odds or analytics say.
Why are people  
Josh in the City : 11/12/2019 10:38 pm : link
Talking about CMC like he’s proof of the counter argument? What has he ever won? The panthers are 1 game over .500 this yr and hes having as good a statistical season as a RB could have. Is that good enough? Not to me and if anything proves my point! When I’m talking about building a winning team I’m not talking about being .500. I’m talking about building a team capable of competing for a Super Bowl. Todd Gurley is the better example of what happens when a well built great team loses a stud RB. They don’t miss a beat during their playoff run to the Super Bowl.

RB’s don’t mean dick in today’s NFL and it’s really that simple. It comes down to replacement value...if you build a good team and a good oline it’s easy to replace the value of a top end RB. You may not replace 100% of value but your can still get pretty damn close with any average player at the position. I truly don't understand why this concept (that is so obvious to many) is so complicated for some people to understand. The data and analytics prove this beyond a reasonable doubt.
RE: There's only..  
.McL. : 11/12/2019 10:51 pm : link
In comment 14678117 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
been one consistent indicator to winning.

But it isn't repeatable nor something you can control.

Team health.

And it is yet one more stat that the Pats don't follow the rule on.

2 things.

1) Team health is definitely correlated with winning, but its not a performance metric, furthermore its relatively random for any given ten team in any given year. (Except for the Giants it seems)

2) Passing efficiency is consistently correlated with winning, it is in fact the only performance metric that has been consistently correlated with winning. All other metrics have less correlation and more variability.
Because he is proof  
UConn4523 : 11/12/2019 10:51 pm : link
He isn’t playing with Brady or Mahomes and yet he’s very positively impacting the team. And winning to justify the argument is really faulty, a SB title is incredibly hard to come by and a lot needs to fall in place. It’s also been dominated by the Pats which is an anomaly so that argument doesn’t hold much weight.

Again, there isn’t an absolute rule, don’t know how many times that needs to be repeated.
People miss the point when they bring up McCaffrey or Zeke  
Go Terps : 11/12/2019 11:04 pm : link
Or any other back past or present, for that matter, to justify the Barkley pick.

Whatever the reason, Barkley hasn't made a difference for the Giants in the 19 games since they picked him. The offense has still sucked, the running game has been below league average, and the team continues to lose.

Even if you can build a team around a great running back, the Giants have failed to do so to this point with Barkley. They've failed catastrophically.
RE: Why are people  
SuperGiantMan : 11/12/2019 11:07 pm : link
In comment 14678133 Josh in the City said:
Quote:
Talking about CMC like he’s proof of the counter argument? What has he ever won? The panthers are 1 game over .500 this yr and hes having as good a statistical season as a RB could have. Is that good enough? Not to me and if anything proves my point! When I’m talking about building a winning team I’m not talking about being .500. I’m talking about building a team capable of competing for a Super Bowl. Todd Gurley is the better example of what happens when a well built great team loses a stud RB. They don’t miss a beat during their playoff run to the Super Bowl.

RB’s don’t mean dick in today’s NFL and it’s really that simple. It comes down to replacement value...if you build a good team and a good oline it’s easy to replace the value of a top end RB. You may not replace 100% of value but your can still get pretty damn close with any average player at the position. I truly don't understand why this concept (that is so obvious to many) is so complicated for some people to understand. The data and analytics prove this beyond a reasonable doubt.


I think there is a difference between the clearly provable statistical analysis that says that RBs are not a position of value, as an aggregation of ALL NFL data, and saying that NO RUNNING BACKS ARE VALUABLE. If you want to talk about aggregate data, I don't argue with you. But to say that CMC or, in the instance of your specific example from above, Todd Gurley are not players of significant value is simply just not true.

Do not try to tell people that the Rams didn't miss a beat on the way to the Super Bowl, they were an offensive dynamo before Gurley's injury and were a shell of themselves afterwards. They scored a measly three points in the Bowl and - now that Gurley has settled into this whole arthritic knee era - haven't really had it all year this year either.

None of this makes Saquon a smart pick for this Giants team at #2 with a shit line and toasted Eli but Saquon - in better times, last year - was inarguably an extremely valuable player for this team. Not enough on his own naturally. And maybe not the best building block. But value is not measured only in aggregates, its measured in individuals too, because that's literally the building blocks of how it gets measured to begin with.
RE: “Here we go again with the whys”  
.McL. : 11/12/2019 11:24 pm : link
In comment 14678131 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
whatever man. You speak in absolutes so much it’s nauseating. You aren’t sharing any original ideas. I’m watching the same games you are and I see teams that can run the ball win more easily. Ravens, 49ers, Seahawks, Cowboys, (why did the Eagles regress?), Packers are better than they’ve been in years because they are running.

There’s no golden rule. Teams win many ways, regardless of what the odds or analytics say.

To you, saying that "the data clearly shows" or "x is not correlated" is speaking in absolutes. To me, I am not the one doing the speaking, the data is, I'm just quoting it.

Furthermore there is nothing absolute in statistical analysis, the analysis uses historical information to predict the most probably future outcome of a given question. Let me ask you, how certain are you that you exists, and you are typing on a keyboard, and creating a bunch of 1s and 0s that you are sending off into some nebulous electronic cloud. I think you are likely to talk about your existence in absolutes...

The fact is, that if you understand quantum physics, all of what we perceive as absolute solid evidence of our existence and the existence of the world around us is an illusion. It is the product of statistical probabilistic behaviors of sub atomic particles. Fortunately for us, the aggregate probabilistic behavior supports our existence. But its not guaranteed.

Similarly, there is a statistical probability, an extremely high probability, that supports the conclusion that RBs, and rushing yards are not likely to impact winning. In a very large sample, there is some chance that there will be exceptions. All outcomes fall along a normal curve.

I find it amazing that people on this board are so often excoriated for making claims that are not backed by any data or evidence. But when somebody makes a claim and backs it with data and evidence, if the claim is counter to somebody's opinion, then that somebody will discount the evidence (without real counter evidence) and accuse the original claimant of speaking in absolutes because they had temerity of providing supporting evidence for their claim.

Based on our previous conversation, I don't think you are well versed in statistical analysis. Before you claim that somebody is speaking in absolutes about something you don't really understand, I suggest you do some critical reading. I'm not going to be holding a class in statistical analysis on this board.
.....  
BrettNYG10 : 11/12/2019 11:29 pm : link
Quote:
if you understand quantum physics


I didn’t do well in physics during high school. This is triggering.
RE: Because he is proof  
.McL. : 11/12/2019 11:30 pm : link
In comment 14678145 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
He isn’t playing with Brady or Mahomes and yet he’s very positively impacting the team. And winning to justify the argument is really faulty, a SB title is incredibly hard to come by and a lot needs to fall in place. It’s also been dominated by the Pats which is an anomaly so that argument doesn’t hold much weight.

Again, there isn’t an absolute rule, don’t know how many times that needs to be repeated.

He is not proof of anything other than another example that lies somewhere along the normal curse of probable statistical outcomes.

What's more is you assume that the Panthers would not be as good or better if they used the resources (draft picks and money) on players at different positions. This of course is unprovable. akso as Josh said, the Panthers are competitve, but they don't look like a SB contender. So what does it matter what kind of season MCC is having. A 5-4 record on a team that is a coin flip to make the playoffs doesn't scream to me that investing in even an MVP RB is a sure winning move.
RE: RE: Why are people  
.McL. : 11/12/2019 11:35 pm : link
In comment 14678163 SuperGiantMan said:
Quote:
In comment 14678133 Josh in the City said:


Quote:


Talking about CMC like he’s proof of the counter argument? What has he ever won? The panthers are 1 game over .500 this yr and hes having as good a statistical season as a RB could have. Is that good enough? Not to me and if anything proves my point! When I’m talking about building a winning team I’m not talking about being .500. I’m talking about building a team capable of competing for a Super Bowl. Todd Gurley is the better example of what happens when a well built great team loses a stud RB. They don’t miss a beat during their playoff run to the Super Bowl.

RB’s don’t mean dick in today’s NFL and it’s really that simple. It comes down to replacement value...if you build a good team and a good oline it’s easy to replace the value of a top end RB. You may not replace 100% of value but your can still get pretty damn close with any average player at the position. I truly don't understand why this concept (that is so obvious to many) is so complicated for some people to understand. The data and analytics prove this beyond a reasonable doubt.



I think there is a difference between the clearly provable statistical analysis that says that RBs are not a position of value, as an aggregation of ALL NFL data, and saying that NO RUNNING BACKS ARE VALUABLE. If you want to talk about aggregate data, I don't argue with you. But to say that CMC or, in the instance of your specific example from above, Todd Gurley are not players of significant value is simply just not true.

Do not try to tell people that the Rams didn't miss a beat on the way to the Super Bowl, they were an offensive dynamo before Gurley's injury and were a shell of themselves afterwards. They scored a measly three points in the Bowl and - now that Gurley has settled into this whole arthritic knee era - haven't really had it all year this year either.

None of this makes Saquon a smart pick for this Giants team at #2 with a shit line and toasted Eli but Saquon - in better times, last year - was inarguably an extremely valuable player for this team. Not enough on his own naturally. And maybe not the best building block. But value is not measured only in aggregates, its measured in individuals too, because that's literally the building blocks of how it gets measured to begin with.

The problem with what you are saying is that there has been specific analysis of teams with bell cow RBs. Yes its an aggregate of such teams, but the goal is to see if bellcow RBs have a more statistical impact on winning. The answer has come back as they have no significant correlation to wins above the aggregate of all RBs.

The conclusion from that is that it doesn't really matter how good the RB is when it comes to winning.

Again, you can come up with outcomes that fall all along the normal curve. But for every positive example, there is a negative one. And a shit ton that fall in the middle.

Again, its not me saying that, its the data.
IMO the blunder is the GM and HC  
giantstock : 11/12/2019 11:38 pm : link
In order to bring out the tremendous ability of a healthy SB-- you do it by not only giving him a QB but a decent enough OL. The better it is-- it makes SB exponentially great.

Chances are that the RB isn't going to last 10 years so you've shortened your window by selecting him (which is fine.). However, that means you need to go after OLinemen in quantity. The G-men needed five OL at one point before Solder. Overpaying for 1 in such an extreme manner and then claim "But we had to fill LT" -- you didn't. The team was going to suck anyway. Sure you try to fill it but not at the expense of getting two players instead. The two didn;t need to be better than a "decent enough Solder if he produced." They just couldn't suck like Omamaeh, Remmers, and Halapio do. When you are rebuilding-- you also have to consider a strategy is a game of numbers. SO unless you are getting an absolute stud-- two players is better than 1. But to go after an older guy to boot was moronic. It could be excused a bit if he was young.

Next year there must be a priority to get at least two starting OLinemen. The garbage that DG is trying for with Omameh, and Remmers and Halapio are not they type of linemen you want when you invest a pick so high in a RB whose football life-limit is much shorter than many, many positions. The moment G-men took Barkley -- there should've been an immediate decision by DG to upgrade the OL and not with Omameh, Remmers and Halapio types. The RT and Center are the 2nd and 3rd most important positions on the OL. You have to do better if you are building around a RB and such a young QB. Who we see now loves to hold on to the ball too long.

****Jones has been sacked 22 times in the last 4 games. ONE LEFT TACKLE IS NOT GOING TO SOLVE THIS PROBLEM.
-----------
If LW signs with Giants it was a good move. Just because Hill and Tomlinson are better than the LB's and the safety doesn't mean that both of them are good. The GMen need good football players on defense. You need at least two "pretty good DL."

As far as LW can hold G-men hostage. It should be that DG did his due diligence and as a result LW won't. If LW holds G-men hostage then it's just another reason to call DG a fucking dolt.
RE: .....  
.McL. : 11/12/2019 11:41 pm : link
In comment 14678172 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:


Quote:


if you understand quantum physics



I didn’t do well in physics during high school. This is triggering.

LOL...

As an undergrad, I was a physics major... Can't make money doing that though, I switched to comp sci/machine learning in graduate school. We called machine learning intelligent systems back then.
RE: RE: .....  
BrettNYG10 : 11/12/2019 11:51 pm : link
In comment 14678178 .McL. said:
Quote:
In comment 14678172 BrettNYG10 said:


Quote:




Quote:


if you understand quantum physics



I didn’t do well in physics during high school. This is triggering.


LOL...

As an undergrad, I was a physics major... Can't make money doing that though, I switched to comp sci/machine learning in graduate school. We called machine learning intelligent systems back then.


I was arrogant and skipped the recommended pre-requisites for physics. I screwed myself.

I was an Econ major in college. I’ve been taking some coding classes ‘for fun’ now - I was in the dark at the level of statistical analysis/rigor required (I was fortunately good at statistics). It’s opened my eyes quite a bit, and I’m fearful the Giants aren’t knowledgeable about what’s capable in the data science field (although we may have beaten that discussion to death in other threads).
RE: RE: RE: .....  
.McL. : 11/12/2019 11:58 pm : link
In comment 14678183 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
In comment 14678178 .McL. said:


Quote:


In comment 14678172 BrettNYG10 said:


Quote:




Quote:


if you understand quantum physics



I didn’t do well in physics during high school. This is triggering.


LOL...

As an undergrad, I was a physics major... Can't make money doing that though, I switched to comp sci/machine learning in graduate school. We called machine learning intelligent systems back then.



I was arrogant and skipped the recommended pre-requisites for physics. I screwed myself.

I was an Econ major in college. I’ve been taking some coding classes ‘for fun’ now - I was in the dark at the level of statistical analysis/rigor required (I was fortunately good at statistics). It’s opened my eyes quite a bit, and I’m fearful the Giants aren’t knowledgeable about what’s capable in the data science field (although we may have beaten that discussion to death in other threads).

Yeah, unfortunately there are not many who actually do understand, math, statistics, and data science. But there is no shortage of people willing to dismiss them. Funny thing, that is.
I've talked about physics and the idea that just because  
NoGainDayne : 11/13/2019 1:39 am : link
something happened and it was "right or wrong" doesn't even mean it was the right or wrong decision.

A data scientist friend recommended I learn about quantum physics about 3 years into my career in that field. Such important concepts to understand in predictive analytics.

Once you start seeing the inherent randomness (at least based on what we can measure) in the world it becomes pretty obvious that all you can do is gather more data, learn about a problem more and understand the probabilities of the system better and better through that.

It seemed the main argument of the kind of Giants loyalists in the many "it doesn't really look like we are playing the probabilities or have people that understand these concepts" debates was how audacious people were to suggest the Giants didn't have the right people in place to optimize performance with these concepts.

This LW move might be the biggest game theory blunder yet. The only way it made sense was if it could get us to the playoffs this year which it would be kind to call a low probability event.

You guys realize that also applies  
UConn4523 : 11/13/2019 7:40 am : link
to every strategy including whichever has the highest probability, right? Just because you follow through doesn’t mean it will work. Countless examples of such. I’m not even refuting high probability strategies, I’m simply saying that it isn’t an absolute.

As for CMC he’s got the same record as the Colts. The same Colts that are applauded for building their team “correctly” according to many on this board. Maybe that’s because there isn’t some hard rule?

The Cowboys built their team correctly and “haven’t won shit” (BBIs favorite go to when refuting how good a player in their impact is). Same record as the Panthers.

In the end it’s been Brady/Brees/Rodgers/Wilson and the top couple young guys while everyone else is jockeying for position and trying to get a lucky break. If you don’t have a top tier QB the NFL is a difficult place to win and teams will look to many different avenues to improve - some successfully and some not. For example the Vikings. Usually a solid defense but they lose their best WR and then commit to the run more and are a much better football team than last year. Cook will have 2000 yards outside of injury.
RE: There's only..  
christian : 11/13/2019 7:58 am : link
In comment 14678117 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
been one consistent indicator to winning.

But it isn't repeatable nor something you can control.

Team health.

And it is yet one more stat that the Pats don't follow the rule on.


That's an incredibly bold claim. Can you point to the studies that have eliminated the consistency of every other factor?
It's a bold claim..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 11/13/2019 8:15 am : link
only in the absence of other data that has been shown to correlate to winning consistently from a performance standpoint.

If there is a metric out there with as statistically high of a correlation to winning, I'm all for seeing it.

And team health is hardly mentioned when discussing teams who have risen to the top or had quick turnarounds. Since 2000, there have only been two SB's that didn't have a Top 5 team in health participate. And since that time, over 75% of the top 5 teams in overall health have made the playoffs!! That's extraordinary. And the teams in the Top 5 in health have been at .500 or better about 86% of the time. In fact, the last time (and only time since 2000) that the Giants finished in the Top 5 in health was - 2016. The rest of the time, they've been 20th or worse.

But the rub is that it is fairly random, difficult to achieve and even when using preventative or proactive measures to stay healthy - it often fails.
...  
christian : 11/13/2019 8:59 am : link
I'll spend some time over the weekend re-researching. I've seen previous studies showing passer efficiency and passer rating having a strong corollary relationship with wins.

But on the topic of health, I'd be interested in seeing on a positional level what positions miss the most time on average per season, and what positions have the shortest career expectancy.

Availability and durability do seem to be indicative of win share and value.
RE: You guys realize that also applies  
Josh in the City : 11/13/2019 9:02 am : link
In comment 14678249 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
to every strategy including whichever has the highest probability, right? Just because you follow through doesn’t mean it will work. Countless examples of such. I’m not even refuting high probability strategies, I’m simply saying that it isn’t an absolute.

As for CMC he’s got the same record as the Colts. The same Colts that are applauded for building their team “correctly” according to many on this board. Maybe that’s because there isn’t some hard rule?

The Cowboys built their team correctly and “haven’t won shit” (BBIs favorite go to when refuting how good a player in their impact is). Same record as the Panthers.

In the end it’s been Brady/Brees/Rodgers/Wilson and the top couple young guys while everyone else is jockeying for position and trying to get a lucky break. If you don’t have a top tier QB the NFL is a difficult place to win and teams will look to many different avenues to improve - some successfully and some not. For example the Vikings. Usually a solid defense but they lose their best WR and then commit to the run more and are a much better football team than last year. Cook will have 2000 yards outside of injury.

You've got to be kidding me with this absurdity! The Colts lost their starting QB (the position that most correlates to wins and losses) in the pre-season due to an unexpected retirment. Now you're going to use them as an example to try and prove your position that couldn't be any further from the truth!?

The Colts went from a 4-12 team in 2017 to a 10-6 team in 2018 for the exact reason you're trying to invalidate. If anything they're the exact perfect example of positional value in today's NFL and what happens when you build a team the right way. The ignorance of some people is unfathomable.
And on top of that...  
Josh in the City : 11/13/2019 9:04 am : link
the Colts, with their backup QB this year, have the same record as the Panthers that some are using as the rationale to say that CMC proves that RB's do mean something in today's NFL! But because the Colts actually built from he trenches outward (the right way to build a team) they are still able to put a respectable product on the field.
Absurdity!  
Britt in VA : 11/13/2019 9:06 am : link
Ignorance!
Unfathomable!

Josh, your self awareness could easily be described by many of these terms.

gidie nailed you early in this thread. That's exactly what is happening here, and you're doubling down.

We all remember what and how you posted. It was pretty prolific.
im referring to comments made in other threads  
UConn4523 : 11/13/2019 9:07 am : link
not my own comments. I'm a huge fan of Luck and how they finally got around to surrounding him with a good team - which is exactly point, they had the QB and it still took years, its an inexact science.

No idea why you are such a dick on this thread though. People don't agree with you, you should probably handle it better. You are taking offense to every counterpoint, to me that's unfathomable.
Here's  
FatMan in Charlotte : 11/13/2019 9:08 am : link
a graph on injuries from 2000-2014 from an aggregate standpoint, but not specific to a team:



RB, LB and DB has the greatest propensity to miss more than 4 games
Let's not forget that you were first in line....  
Britt in VA : 11/13/2019 9:09 am : link
to spew fire and brimstone about how the Giants passed on the opportunity to take Darnold and propelled themselves into QB wasteland, never to be able to find one again. That the golden opportunity was gone, and we completely blew it.

Meanwhile, exactly one calendar year later, we took one. And he is just as skilled as the others we passed on. And we won't even go into how you reacted about that pick.

Just stop.
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