I get the doom and gloom. I get that it looks bad and it is bad. I completely get the attitude towards Shurmur. I kind of get that Gettleman doesn't have the equity from most of you to get the benefit of the doubt even if a reading of his record might show he does deserve better. I am a little less understanding of vitriol towards John Mara but so be it. This post is not about the owner, the GM or even the HC. It is about personnel.
First, it is important to recognize that the team that Gettleman inherited was in a lot worse shape than anyone wants to recognize. The talent was poor in many places. But somewhat worse is that where there was talent, it was not foundational talent. It wasn't talent that you build around, it wasn't talent that would lead the team forward. OBJ, Snacks, Jenkins, even Collins are examples. They are not necessarily bad people. But they were islands at best. To the extent they were leaders, they were leaders in the wrong way. The locker room was rotten, the talent was weak, the resources to improve were not there.
People point to San Fran as an example but this is year 3 of their regime and they had been bad for years before that too. So have we? Yes but the picks made by the last GM proved useless to this regime. In San Fran, they are using at least SOME players from before they got there in big roles. Gettleman could not do that here. Apple and Flowers were busts for various reasons, the 2nd rounders were by and large non-existent as well and the talented, productive 1st rounder in OBJ was a drain and poor alpha.
But the truth is that there is some young talent here that could be the foundation of the next good Giants teams.
If you go position by position, you will see guys who you feel pretty darn good about, others you think might be answers, some you aren't sure about and others you know you need to replace. Maybe we differ on some of those categories but I doubt by too much.
Pretty darn good/think they might be answers
Offense:
QB: Jones
RB: Barkley
TE: Engram
WR: Shepard
LG: Hernandez
RG: Zeitler
WR: Slayton
Notes: I know Shepard is a question mark but he is an answer if healthy. Slayton and Shep are answers to 2 of the top 3-4 WRs.
What's missing? Center, RT, LT and probably a red chip WR.
Defense:
DL: Tomlinson
DL: Williams
DL: Lawrence
DL: Hill
Edge: Golden
LB: Connelly
LB/Edge: Carter
LB/Edge: Ximines
S: Peppers
*CB: Baker
*CB: Beal
*S/CB: Love
*CB: Ballantine
Notes: I am assuming resignings for this exercise. Really, the only one who might not be back is Golden. Williams will be tagged if we don't get a deal done.
The DL is pretty stocked. The LB position is lacking next to Connelly but Carter and X-Man have both shown a lot to like if they are allowed to play to their strengths. But they are a little bit of a projection. The asterisks are the larger projection. It's been open season on Baker and I get it. And Beal has not played. So projections on those guys are probably more in we don't know yet. But the pedigree is fairly good and the skillsets are fairly good. So if you are a glass half full guy, you say at least 2 of the 4 CBs come through. Maybe 3. And if you aren't, CB is a need.
So what are the needs on defense? I see the major need for a blue chip pass rusher who will push Williams, Golden, Carter, Lawrence and X-Man down a notch and by doing so, making them much more effective. A great pass rusher takes attention and allows more favorable matchups for those other guys. He creates pressure which means that those guys get home because the QB has to escape but if Williams and Lawrence are pushing the pocket, he can't move up. And Golden, X-Man, Carter coming from the other side make it an avalanche.
Even so, this depends on CBs covering for some time at least. We haven't seen that this year. So a lot hinges on their improvement. Many rookies struggle and then improve. Many don't. So yes, optimism that our needs are not huge depends on some of those 4 becoming players we can depend on.
What I see missing? The top edge guy, a LB to play with Connelly, a safety and a CB to hedge my bets.
Combined with the offense needs, there is still a nice sized list. But it isn't insurmountable. It might need 2 more offseasons. But with the cap space and a high pick, we should make major inroads this offseason and begin to see improvement next year. I figure with resigning Williams and Golden, we may make 2 bigger signings as FAs. In this, I give some possibles for RT and for ILB next to Connelly.
RT: Williams or Conklin are options
C: I think this is a bridge guy still unless we get someone in the 3rd/4th round.
LT: Either the high first round pick (Thomas??) or the 2nd round pick (maybe a tradeup). The draft has a number of well regarded tackles.
WR: You could list Amare Cooper and pine for him but I think we spend our money closer to the ball like at the tackle or LB positions. My guess is we go for a bridge type vet and hit this in the draft again, probably 3rd-5th round.
Edge: Same as LT. Either the high first round pick (Young) or we see about trading up from the top of the 2nd.
LB: Joe Schobert or Blake Martinez are options
S: Justin Simmons would be one option on one tier. Karl Joseph is a different type option on a different tier.
CB: You could list Byron Jones but I don't think we play at that level. I think more realistic options are guys like Kendall Fuller (for nickelback), Daryl Worley, James Bradbury (former DG picks) and a couple of others with the hopes/belief that our guys take big steps forward for next year and after.
Lastly, on STs, Rosas is going through a not atypical kicker's year. The best guys figure a way to minimize the variation from year to year. Rosas now has to do that. But like relievers in baseball, there is a lot of year to year variability in production. There is reason to believe he will be better next year so let's consider PK a filled job. But at Punter, Dixon is a UFA. I would definitely love to upgrade to a guy who is top notch. Paying punter top dollar is not a huge investment and I would look into Tress Way as he is a UFA this offseason.
Bottom line to me: There is a realistic path to fill many of the needs this offseason with real talent. The biggest needs are the tackles and top pass rusher to me. The 1st round pick will fill one of LT or pass rusher and free agency should give us an opportunity to get the RT. The 3rd major need (LT or pass rusher) will depend to some degree on how the draft falls. Almost every other position will get a lot better when those needs are filled and by growth from year 1 to year 2 or year 2 to year 3. And the other needs are not major. If we draft well, we should get a LB, center, safety and/or WR who can contribute after the 1st two rounds or as a bridge in FA.
Lastly, every player but Engram, Shepard and Tomlinson that I listed in the positions roundup as "Pretty darn good/think they might be answers" was acquired by Gettleman. If you think about that and the fact that there aren't more players from before that we could tab as likely (or even possible answers), that tells you just how huge the job is that Gettleman inherited. For those of you who are impatient, you can't fill 22 starters (really about 30 starters when you add in 3rd and 4th WR, 2nd TE, nickleback, dimeback, rotation DLinemen and even punter and PK) in 2 offseasons. You just can't. If there were holdovers worth keeping, the job would be quicker. But there weren't and aren't. Guys like Kennard and Okwara are ok but they aren't difference makers in Detroit. Apple was rotten. Flowers stunk and was rotten. OBJ and Collins are the ones that were and are debatable but the team didn't feel they were worth the trouble and/or money.
There are positives, you just have to know where to look.
With optimism.
I don't think Golden stays past this year. He will get overpaid. BJ Hill has disappeared this year. Tomlinson is nothing but a run plugger who you let go in his contract year. He is very replaceable.
The only pieces in place that I see are
Jones, Barkley, Slayton, Hernandez, Zeitler
Lawrence, Williams (if re-signed) Connelly, Peppers
Everyone else is either unproven or injury prone.
Oh and by the way we also have no 3rd or 4th/5th rounder to help with the rebuild process
I'm frustrated about the lousy football as well, but I honestly think that their roster had and currently has a lot of hole and wi take at least another offseason or two to get it on track. If we are being honest with ourselves as fans we would have to acknowledge that this is probably a 3 to 4 year rebuild.
I'm a little bit more patient in that I'd like to see Shurmur coach with a more competitve roster but if they are this bad again next year, then I think it's safe to conclude that he won't be able to turn it around.
good post mort!!!
1 more FA period and solid draft could set a foundation that gets this team competitive for years.
Losing sucks but it is part of the equation for building a better roster.
Chase Young would be a great building block next year.
When he's not being picked on the Defense can actually look good.
I don't think Golden stays past this year. He will get overpaid. BJ Hill has disappeared this year. Tomlinson is nothing but a run plugger who you let go in his contract year. He is very replaceable.
The only pieces in place that I see are
Jones, Barkley, Slayton, Hernandez, Zeitler
Lawrence, Williams (if re-signed) Connelly, Peppers
Everyone else is either unproven or injury prone.
Oh and by the way we also have no 3rd or 4th/5th rounder to help with the rebuild process
Golden can leave and it might not make a difference if we get the big time Chase Young prize. Williams and Lawrence will still be there and X-Man was drafted to be that 2nd guy on the outside. And Carter can bring it at times as well though I like him better as an all around type. As for Hill and Tomlinson, I disagree. Hill has been the same player mostly. The sacks aren't there but the play is pretty much the same. And Tomlinson is a superlative run player and getting better.
If you don't have the right men making decisions all the talent in the world won't win.
fingers crossed.
The problem is you need to "fix" multiple positions (you have 3 on o-line alone) and that assume you are correct about every single "answer" you list. You assume the young guys will progress, there will be no attrition through injuries or disaffection or free agent losses and no regression. In truth, at least some of your "safe" plays will be lost through that attrition so you have even more spots to "fix" and you have 7 picks and whatever you can scramble up on the FA market and we are down two picks with the Williams deal regardless of whether he signs, is tagged or leaves.
And that also assumes they are well taught and well coached.
This is a huge task and we need to be very fortunate to find so many players that quickly.
The problem is you need to "fix" multiple positions (you have 3 on o-line alone) and that assume you are correct about every single "answer" you list. You assume the young guys will progress, there will be no attrition through injuries or disaffection or free agent losses and no regression. In truth, at least some of your "safe" plays will be lost through that attrition so you have even more spots to "fix" and you have 7 picks and whatever you can scramble up on the FA market and we are down two picks with the Williams deal regardless of whether he signs, is tagged or leaves.
And that also assumes they are well taught and well coached.
This is a huge task and we need to be very fortunate to find so many players that quickly.
You are counting your chickens early on this year's draft class, and overestimating a lot of the others.
With good fortune on a lot of these youngsters stepping up to the plate, we can rise to being ok - mediocre.
The OL sucks. Hernandez may be ok, but he hasn't shown to be any kind of anchor. Ditto Zeitler. The other 3 are pathetic.
The WR is meh. Nothing there that says it is going to be more than that.
On D, rising to sub mediocrity will take a LOT of good fortune. some of the ones you list as being part of a solid foundation haven't shown much of anything toward realizing that hope.
It's good to be optimistic, but with good fortune of past and future drafts, 2 more years might see us well on our way, at which point you have to spend resources replacing or retaining the early part of the rebuild. The margin for error is slim.
Plus, do we know that all these decent players jettisoned for culture were really bad seeds? Or was the coaching unable to control the negativity?
I kind of feel like even with the lack of talent, a better coaching staff could've gotten at least a couple more wins out of this team, probably against the weaker teams like Arizona, Detroit and Jets. 5-5 would've been kind of expected at this point.
for example outside of us not being able to afford another GAFF and miss at OL, what makes Hernandez a top OL? he isn't or hasn't shown he is. Because he is a "tough" guy it gets over looked but he is over powered often on run plays. Not sold on this guy but again we already have 3 OL holes so I guess have to see if he can rebound next year with a better center next to him
agree on TE . we need a real TE who can block and catch. Engram is an off/on TE that is really a WR and needs to be used to match up against LBs
I think with a real safety and a pass rush we will be OK at DB . I do remember how much better Webster got when magically we had more of a pass rush and he had his second year under him . Maybe the D backfield will be similar
What is his plan with Barkley? His awe shucks attitude coupled with DG's smudge, "smartest guy in the room act," has run its course for me.
Let's swap Tomlin and his staff for Shurmur and his come January. Next year the Steelers will be 2-8 and we'll be 6-4 with the same personel.
It seems to me that the solid players you list are being coached poorly. Both sides of the ball. Fundamentals are bad both tackling/blocking and being in the right place to make a play like the Pats always are.
We just can't enjoy some nice wins.
The comment about 3/5 of the OL is certainly noted but with so many holes inherited by Gettleman, who would you have taken or signed instead at the time? And what other holes would we now have instead? Basically he took over a team that had only 3 people he regards as keepers if you go by what is left. So about 24 starters were needed (if you count some of those role players as essentially a starter) with minimal cap room available. In two offseasons, he is down to maybe 10-12 spots with cap room coming and another draft to come this offseason.
We all want results and want them quickly but the bottom line is that you only have so many top draft picks and if you have no cap space, you have to hit them all plus the lower round picks. Nobody in the history of the league has a perfect batting record in personnel even counting only 1st and 2nd rounders.
You are counting your chickens early on this year's draft class, and overestimating a lot of the others.
With good fortune on a lot of these youngsters stepping up to the plate, we can rise to being ok - mediocre.
The OL sucks. Hernandez may be ok, but he hasn't shown to be any kind of anchor. Ditto Zeitler. The other 3 are pathetic.
The WR is meh. Nothing there that says it is going to be more than that.
On D, rising to sub mediocrity will take a LOT of good fortune. some of the ones you list as being part of a solid foundation haven't shown much of anything toward realizing that hope.
It's good to be optimistic, but with good fortune of past and future drafts, 2 more years might see us well on our way, at which point you have to spend resources replacing or retaining the early part of the rebuild. The margin for error is slim.
Plus, do we know that all these decent players jettisoned for culture were really bad seeds? Or was the coaching unable to control the negativity?
On the players sent away, OBJ went through 3 HCs. I am pretty good saying it was him. Snacks was who he was. He said he wasn't interested in leading. And he had a huge cap hit. He was a leader by example though and his example was one of being an individual in a team game. Not selfish, just not a great example. And so on.
If I am counting my chickens early on this draft class (a fair criticism) then anyone indicting Gettleman on the same class is guilty of same. Point being, we don't know. So the assumption is that we made some good picks and I think there is basis there for it (feel good about Jones and Big Dex, unsure about Baker, cautiously optimistic about Ximines, Connelly, Slayton, no data on Love and happy with the chances of Ballantine outperforming his draft position).
Quote:
Shep and EE are huge question marks
I don't think Golden stays past this year. He will get overpaid. BJ Hill has disappeared this year. Tomlinson is nothing but a run plugger who you let go in his contract year. He is very replaceable.
The only pieces in place that I see are
Jones, Barkley, Slayton, Hernandez, Zeitler
Lawrence, Williams (if re-signed) Connelly, Peppers
Everyone else is either unproven or injury prone.
Oh and by the way we also have no 3rd or 4th/5th rounder to help with the rebuild process
Shep and Engram are injury questions, yes. But not talent. If either has to be replaced, it adds to the list. But if it's Shep, a lot of cap space is now cleared. And if it's Engram, it might have an upside in letting us switch to more of an all around type TE.
Golden can leave and it might not make a difference if we get the big time Chase Young prize. Williams and Lawrence will still be there and X-Man was drafted to be that 2nd guy on the outside. And Carter can bring it at times as well though I like him better as an all around type. As for Hill and Tomlinson, I disagree. Hill has been the same player mostly. The sacks aren't there but the play is pretty much the same. And Tomlinson is a superlative run player and getting better.
The Shep and EE injuries are real. And they can't be relied on long-term because of them, so to me they are not foundation players. This would be 2 more positions you need to spend resources to fix.
I appreciate you trying to be positive, but I personally don't see it.
What I will say in a positive note is this. Players may look worse than they are because of the current coaching staff. So with a new coaching staff, things could look better in a hurry.
This team is a shitfest with no light at the end of the tunnel I'm afraid. Seven of the last eight years we have been witnessing horrible football. How some of you here have rose colored glasses on, and believe that we are on the right track, good for you.
It takes time to rebuild a roster.
especially when you forecast out to 2020/1...
"Pretty darn good/think they might be answers"
Agree:
RG: Zeitler
WR: Slayton
DL: Williams
S: Peppers
CB: Ballantine
Let's see:
LB: Connelly (quickness his best physical trait now w/ ACL)
CB: Baker (mental midget, maybe figures it out ~corey webster)
CB: Beal (if he can a) produce b) stay healthy
Disagree:
TE: Engram - too injury prone and we'll have to pay him soon
WR: Shepard - too injury prone, a #2 receiver at best
LG: Hernandez - Need more from the #34 overall, 2 yrs from his payday
DL: Tomlinson - good but he'll get paid and walk
DL: Hill - a JAG-
Edge: Golden - he's gone
Edge: Carter - JAG
Edge: Ximines - JAG-
S/CB: Love - can't see the field w/ Haley and Bethea
So in conclusion we need to fill all of
-LT,RT,CT, FS, ER, LB
---with depth
-----while likely losing a DT, ER, TE to FA
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
It takes time to rebuild a roster.
And Gettleman created a few holes when he got here. The first rule of getting out of a hole is to quit digging. He traded and cut a bunch of guys who are playing elsewhere and then hired a coach with a 30% winning percentage. When we start talking about the hole, take a look at the guy holding the shovel.
On the year the Giants for total Sacks T15
Wonder what the numbers are on QB hits and QB pressures?
They're not pathetic.
Players also age and become has beens. What is very terrifying are the holes we have on oline, linebackers and secondary. That is core football that we are not executing on and many wonder why we do not win games.
But for this team to actually take the next step and stop the consistent losing the 2 most important goals for talent acquisition during the next year are:
1) protect and provide Jones and Barkley (our two most valuable assets) with more competent O-Lineman to allow them to produce and reach their potential
and
2) get off the field on 3rd down which ultimately requires a strong edge rusher and an impact middle linebacker
You all can put whatever lists together you want but I will go to the mattresses with anyone who doesn't agree with the two goals above.
Everything this front office has to do, now and for the next 6 months, should revolve around figuring out what pieces are going to come from Free Agency vs the Draft with an emphasis on true experience (versus developmental) because there is little confidence we have developed anybody of value at these positions for years.
everything...
There are positives, you just have to know where to look.
1) Golden. He should be looking to max out his earnings. It will be the last opportunity for him to do so. If he is resigned, it should only be at reasonable cost. He isn't a difference maker and shouldn't be paid top dollar.
2)Edge via draft - Chase Young. Many see him as the prize, but I don't see how Washington passes up on him. I don't see us picking ahead of Washington. I presume that we'll be picking #3 or #4. The Bengals should have the top pick. Miami can't even tank properly.
3)Edge via FA - If we aren't in position to pick Young, then we need to fill the need via FA. If we resign Golden, it is because his production leveled off and is unable to earn max dollar. I would be very interested in signing Yannick Ngakoue. Josh Allen is his replacement in Jax.
4) Engram is not a building piece. He is a good player with moderate production that is acceptable on his rookie deal. But next May is the deadline to elect the 5th year option which will guarantee $8.4M. His agent knows the FT for TE is $10.6M. Any extension for Engram starts with guaranteed money of $19M. A guy who misses games; who can't block despite his best effort; is strictly a one dimensional player - a receiving TE (He is not a WR despite BBI wanting to move him since he was drafted). If a player is one dimensional, then they better be exceptional at what they do. He is not, despite BBI's proclamation that he is a match-up nightmare. He is a 590 yards/4 TDs per year player (Average over 3 years; Total 1766 yards/12 TDs).
I want to see this personnel in routine press coverage and the ERs selling out to rush the passer. In particular, I believe the ERs are a development and scheme problem, not an acquisition problem. Same at DL.
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you listed basically the entire starting defense. And our defense is absolutely terrible. Maybe these players aren't as good as we think they are.
As I said, getting the big time pass rusher has a trickle down effect but it also hinges on the CBs being what we drafted and this being rookie year struggles. A plausible though not assured assumption.
You listed Carter and XMan as "showing a lot to like" then say that they need more pass rushers. These two guys are supposed to be pass rushers and they've shown next to nothing.
Many people pointed this out at the time. Gettleman did not behave like he agreed. I don't believe the teardown/rebuild started until a quarter into last season. It's a massive failure in self-scouting. I see many of the same people who told us the Giants could compete last year now defend Gettleman using this argument.
Further, much of the 'Giants infrastructure' during the Reese years remains in place. Scouts, etc. I don't believe we got the fresh eyes we needed.
With that said, Jones looks incredible. Passing on the 2018 QBs and selecting Jones seems to be a great decision.
+1. The entire defense is nowhere near set.