I get the doom and gloom. I get that it looks bad and it is bad. I completely get the attitude towards Shurmur. I kind of get that Gettleman doesn't have the equity from most of you to get the benefit of the doubt even if a reading of his record might show he does deserve better. I am a little less understanding of vitriol towards John Mara but so be it. This post is not about the owner, the GM or even the HC. It is about personnel.
First, it is important to recognize that the team that Gettleman inherited was in a lot worse shape than anyone wants to recognize. The talent was poor in many places. But somewhat worse is that where there was talent, it was not foundational talent. It wasn't talent that you build around, it wasn't talent that would lead the team forward. OBJ, Snacks, Jenkins, even Collins are examples. They are not necessarily bad people. But they were islands at best. To the extent they were leaders, they were leaders in the wrong way. The locker room was rotten, the talent was weak, the resources to improve were not there.
People point to San Fran as an example but this is year 3 of their regime and they had been bad for years before that too. So have we? Yes but the picks made by the last GM proved useless to this regime. In San Fran, they are using at least SOME players from before they got there in big roles. Gettleman could not do that here. Apple and Flowers were busts for various reasons, the 2nd rounders were by and large non-existent as well and the talented, productive 1st rounder in OBJ was a drain and poor alpha.
But the truth is that there is some young talent here that could be the foundation of the next good Giants teams.
If you go position by position, you will see guys who you feel pretty darn good about, others you think might be answers, some you aren't sure about and others you know you need to replace. Maybe we differ on some of those categories but I doubt by too much.
Pretty darn good/think they might be answers
Offense:
QB: Jones
RB: Barkley
TE: Engram
WR: Shepard
LG: Hernandez
RG: Zeitler
WR: Slayton
Notes: I know Shepard is a question mark but he is an answer if healthy. Slayton and Shep are answers to 2 of the top 3-4 WRs.
What's missing? Center, RT, LT and probably a red chip WR.
Defense:
DL: Tomlinson
DL: Williams
DL: Lawrence
DL: Hill
Edge: Golden
LB: Connelly
LB/Edge: Carter
LB/Edge: Ximines
S: Peppers
*CB: Baker
*CB: Beal
*S/CB: Love
*CB: Ballantine
Notes: I am assuming resignings for this exercise. Really, the only one who might not be back is Golden. Williams will be tagged if we don't get a deal done.
The DL is pretty stocked. The LB position is lacking next to Connelly but Carter and X-Man have both shown a lot to like if they are allowed to play to their strengths. But they are a little bit of a projection. The asterisks are the larger projection. It's been open season on Baker and I get it. And Beal has not played. So projections on those guys are probably more in we don't know yet. But the pedigree is fairly good and the skillsets are fairly good. So if you are a glass half full guy, you say at least 2 of the 4 CBs come through. Maybe 3. And if you aren't, CB is a need.
So what are the needs on defense? I see the major need for a blue chip pass rusher who will push Williams, Golden, Carter, Lawrence and X-Man down a notch and by doing so, making them much more effective. A great pass rusher takes attention and allows more favorable matchups for those other guys. He creates pressure which means that those guys get home because the QB has to escape but if Williams and Lawrence are pushing the pocket, he can't move up. And Golden, X-Man, Carter coming from the other side make it an avalanche.
Even so, this depends on CBs covering for some time at least. We haven't seen that this year. So a lot hinges on their improvement. Many rookies struggle and then improve. Many don't. So yes, optimism that our needs are not huge depends on some of those 4 becoming players we can depend on.
What I see missing? The top edge guy, a LB to play with Connelly, a safety and a CB to hedge my bets.
Combined with the offense needs, there is still a nice sized list. But it isn't insurmountable. It might need 2 more offseasons. But with the cap space and a high pick, we should make major inroads this offseason and begin to see improvement next year. I figure with resigning Williams and Golden, we may make 2 bigger signings as FAs. In this, I give some possibles for RT and for ILB next to Connelly.
RT: Williams or Conklin are options
C: I think this is a bridge guy still unless we get someone in the 3rd/4th round.
LT: Either the high first round pick (Thomas??) or the 2nd round pick (maybe a tradeup). The draft has a number of well regarded tackles.
WR: You could list Amare Cooper and pine for him but I think we spend our money closer to the ball like at the tackle or LB positions. My guess is we go for a bridge type vet and hit this in the draft again, probably 3rd-5th round.
Edge: Same as LT. Either the high first round pick (Young) or we see about trading up from the top of the 2nd.
LB: Joe Schobert or Blake Martinez are options
S: Justin Simmons would be one option on one tier. Karl Joseph is a different type option on a different tier.
CB: You could list Byron Jones but I don't think we play at that level. I think more realistic options are guys like Kendall Fuller (for nickelback), Daryl Worley, James Bradbury (former DG picks) and a couple of others with the hopes/belief that our guys take big steps forward for next year and after.
Lastly, on STs, Rosas is going through a not atypical kicker's year. The best guys figure a way to minimize the variation from year to year. Rosas now has to do that. But like relievers in baseball, there is a lot of year to year variability in production. There is reason to believe he will be better next year so let's consider PK a filled job. But at Punter, Dixon is a UFA. I would definitely love to upgrade to a guy who is top notch. Paying punter top dollar is not a huge investment and I would look into Tress Way as he is a UFA this offseason.
Bottom line to me: There is a realistic path to fill many of the needs this offseason with real talent. The biggest needs are the tackles and top pass rusher to me. The 1st round pick will fill one of LT or pass rusher and free agency should give us an opportunity to get the RT. The 3rd major need (LT or pass rusher) will depend to some degree on how the draft falls. Almost every other position will get a lot better when those needs are filled and by growth from year 1 to year 2 or year 2 to year 3. And the other needs are not major. If we draft well, we should get a LB, center, safety and/or WR who can contribute after the 1st two rounds or as a bridge in FA.
Lastly, every player but Engram, Shepard and Tomlinson that I listed in the positions roundup as "Pretty darn good/think they might be answers" was acquired by Gettleman. If you think about that and the fact that there aren't more players from before that we could tab as likely (or even possible answers), that tells you just how huge the job is that Gettleman inherited. For those of you who are impatient, you can't fill 22 starters (really about 30 starters when you add in 3rd and 4th WR, 2nd TE, nickleback, dimeback, rotation DLinemen and even punter and PK) in 2 offseasons. You just can't. If there were holdovers worth keeping, the job would be quicker. But there weren't and aren't. Guys like Kennard and Okwara are ok but they aren't difference makers in Detroit. Apple was rotten. Flowers stunk and was rotten. OBJ and Collins are the ones that were and are debatable but the team didn't feel they were worth the trouble and/or money.
--Why should the Giants overpay 2020 FA players the caliber of 2016 Snacks, Vernon and Jenkins if they came to regret their 2016 price tags?
--What's the point of cutting JJ to save $11.25m in order to overpay a CB at $15m? Beal and Baker haven't demonstrated CB1 skills and there are too many greater needs to be addressed in the draft. (Is a 1 in 3 success rate on overpaid FAs acceptable?)
--The Gettleman plan is to build through the draft, which is what makes giving up a 3rd Rd pick (~65-70) for Williams (who will be overpaid) so curious. I'd LIKE to think that DG, now armed at QB, will embrace trading down from the top 5 to one of the QB needy teams for multiple picks now that he's shorter on draft capital. Unless Chase Young is available. MIA, winning and loaded with draft assets, is suddenly a very compelling possibility as a trade partner.
Bottom line, I have low expectations for multiple, high priced FA signings. I see DG looking for the next Markus Golden and Shaq Barrett at 2019 prices. I was hoping the team would be further along than it is and be ready to compete in 2020, but I think it's an additional year away.
The Giants have way too many holes/needs to be optimistic yet.
When he's not being picked on the Defense can actually look good.
Years ago I remember when Brent Grimes was just beginning to start for the Falcons. Everyone picked on him. Next year he came back and became one of the fines D Backs in the league. Hopefully this is the plan for Baker. Only thing that bothers me is he doesn't seem to have the mentality to be an NFL star
Then you have teams like the Colts who everyone wrote off when Luck retired and are competitive because the coaching staff knows how to utilize their roster. They aren't the most talented team in the league, but they are competitive every week.
Most here will agree the only competitive games we have left are against the dolphins and redskins.
It can't be that there were no other options for LT. Gettleman's top OL target two offseasons ago was Norwell, not Solder. He must have had a plan for LT if he had signed Norwell, right? So was that plan to just trot out Flowers again?
Here's where every defense of Gettleman disintegrates: you either need to acknowledge that there was another option besides Solder that Gettleman could have opted for but went for the splash instead, or you have to at least consider the notion that the new smartest guy in the room was on the verge of bring Flowers back at LT.
Which option do you prefer to defend?
Oh, and Halapio is NOT average. He's bad.
This team is a shitfest with no light at the end of the tunnel I'm afraid. Seven of the last eight years we have been witnessing horrible football. How some of you here have rose colored glasses on, and believe that we are on the right track, good for you.
Great post. For the most part, the Giants have been very bad for a long time now. I am done with speculating. They appear to be regressing under Gettleman and Shurmur (which is remarkable). Wins will convince me they are on the right track - nothing else. The organization hasn't earned the benefit of the doubt.
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They have a couple of players left before McDermott got there. They have a great young roster and should make the playoffs this year.
It takes time to rebuild a roster.
or maybe they just know what they are doing. We’ve had very little evidence that is the case here.
3 winning seasons this century; none with double digit wins.
Then, fix the lines. That will make everything easier, especially on offense.
Not sure what to fix on defense, it seems like outside of the dl,everything is a need. maybe safety, since we can't stop the pass.
I'm okay with gm for now, but we better do better in free agency.
The path to the Giants being good in 2020 is pretty simple:
1. Find a quality HC and staff. This alone will equal wins even with the roster as is.
2. Fix the offensive line. They need to land one of the top FA RT’s — Conklin, Bulaga, etc. I’d also keep an eye out for who shakes loose at LT and C. In the draft look for prospects to compete at C and LT. Trade down and load up on OL if Young is off the board.
3. Improve the pass rush. Bud Dupree should be a target in FA. If the Giants get Chase Young, problem solved. If they get both even better.
Honorable Mention: Cutting Ogletree in favor of a competent LB in FA. The rest is more want than need in terms of wins and losses.
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The choice was made to bridge the OL. We overpaid for hoped for competency at LT when there were no other options and went with a 1 year bridge at RT this year after the inherited guys (Wheeler, Flowers) proved incapable. The center has been average.
It can't be that there were no other options for LT. Gettleman's top OL target two offseasons ago was Norwell, not Solder. He must have had a plan for LT if he had signed Norwell, right? So was that plan to just trot out Flowers again?
Here's where every defense of Gettleman disintegrates: you either need to acknowledge that there was another option besides Solder that Gettleman could have opted for but went for the splash instead, or you have to at least consider the notion that the new smartest guy in the room was on the verge of bring Flowers back at LT.
Which option do you prefer to defend?
Oh, and Halapio is NOT average. He's bad.
I haven’t found anyone answer this question yet either...
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In comment 14675967 mort christenson said:
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The choice was made to bridge the OL. We overpaid for hoped for competency at LT when there were no other options and went with a 1 year bridge at RT this year after the inherited guys (Wheeler, Flowers) proved incapable. The center has been average.
It can't be that there were no other options for LT. Gettleman's top OL target two offseasons ago was Norwell, not Solder. He must have had a plan for LT if he had signed Norwell, right? So was that plan to just trot out Flowers again?
Here's where every defense of Gettleman disintegrates: you either need to acknowledge that there was another option besides Solder that Gettleman could have opted for but went for the splash instead, or you have to at least consider the notion that the new smartest guy in the room was on the verge of bring Flowers back at LT.
Which option do you prefer to defend?
Oh, and Halapio is NOT average. He's bad.
I haven’t found anyone answer this question yet either...
Sadly, I think DG would have used Flowers... Think about that for a bit.
good post mort!!!
100% convinced Mort works for DG.
No matter what or who we are! - ( New Window )
And as stated on my own thread acknowledging Gettleman, folks shitting on him are clueless as to the fine job he's done revamping the roster to this point.
Yes Solder was a whiff, Remmers merely a stop gap, and some other vets he brought in atrocious - Stewart, Ogletree, Bethea, and one other vet I'm not particularly pleased with is at best an "OK" - Tate.
But there are a reasonable wad of franchise "foundation pieces" in place now to move forward. There really weren't, before and Pugh and Richburg were both part of that "weren't long term foundation pieces" group.
Very well laid out IMO.
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In comment 14676303 Gatorade Dunk said:
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In comment 14675967 mort christenson said:
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The choice was made to bridge the OL. We overpaid for hoped for competency at LT when there were no other options and went with a 1 year bridge at RT this year after the inherited guys (Wheeler, Flowers) proved incapable. The center has been average.
It can't be that there were no other options for LT. Gettleman's top OL target two offseasons ago was Norwell, not Solder. He must have had a plan for LT if he had signed Norwell, right? So was that plan to just trot out Flowers again?
Here's where every defense of Gettleman disintegrates: you either need to acknowledge that there was another option besides Solder that Gettleman could have opted for but went for the splash instead, or you have to at least consider the notion that the new smartest guy in the room was on the verge of bring Flowers back at LT.
Which option do you prefer to defend?
Oh, and Halapio is NOT average. He's bad.
I haven’t found anyone answer this question yet either...
Sadly, I think DG would have used Flowers... Think about that for a bit.
I don't. I am not a big fan of DG's decisions but that would be an egregious one. I think DG would have selected what was available in Rd 2 (instead of Hernandez) or try to move up into back half of Rd 1 and pick a left tackle.
The point though is to refute this ridiculous stance by many, many posters that DG's hands were tied and he had to go Solder and make him the highest paid LT.
And I am being nice with ridiculous...
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The choice was made to bridge the OL. We overpaid for hoped for competency at LT when there were no other options and went with a 1 year bridge at RT this year after the inherited guys (Wheeler, Flowers) proved incapable. The center has been average.
It can't be that there were no other options for LT. Gettleman's top OL target two offseasons ago was Norwell, not Solder. He must have had a plan for LT if he had signed Norwell, right? So was that plan to just trot out Flowers again?
Here's where every defense of Gettleman disintegrates: you either need to acknowledge that there was another option besides Solder that Gettleman could have opted for but went for the splash instead, or you have to at least consider the notion that the new smartest guy in the room was on the verge of bring Flowers back at LT.
Which option do you prefer to defend?
Oh, and Halapio is NOT average. He's bad.
There probably was "other" options. There had to be some LT's available, but the question for me is, were they more of a risk than a player like solder? They would have been much cheaper, but would they just be another flowers? I don't think the answer to this question is so simple.
So, what about trading for an LT? Well, I'm sure someone was willing to part with an older proven tackle for the right price, or willing to move a younger inexperienced tackle that really didn't have any game tape on them.
I don't really see this Solder situation as a simple glaring, easy to identify mistake. Was it a mistake? In some context, sure. The giants have not received close to what they are paying solder in game performance. To me that also shows how possibly thin available talent is available at the LT position, premium position.
Lastly, I don't get why opinions around here are necessarily labeled as a defense or an attack on Gettleman. I don't see Mort post very often, so to me I don't know if he is defending Gettleman vs explaining their POV.
I also have to confess I have gone after posters wrongly regarding Gettleman. I have labeled posters as Gettleman bashers when I didn't know their true intention.
It can be quite difficult to have a discussion while remembering that we don't know people's intentions.
What was the solution?
Then, fix the lines. That will make everything easier, especially on offense.
Not sure what to fix on defense, it seems like outside of the dl,everything is a need. maybe safety, since we can't stop the pass.
I'm okay with gm for now, but we better do better in free agency.
What is this, Homecoming Week on BBI?
Nice to see a lot of old handles popping up.
So your problem isn't the play of Solder, just the money?
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average just like Solder for a lot less money. Preferably younger as well in case something could be developed there.
So your problem isn't the play of Solder, just the money?
I said it was a mistake in every way you can look at it, including restructuring his deal.
You want to debate this or is there something else that is confusing?
Or he miscalculated how bad the team he had was including keeping an immobile Eli, he entered his free agency and lost out on his first choice Norwell, he had to calm his new boss and Eli because he promised he was going to fix the line, Solder was a name out there which would be very expensive despite him being average and getting worse, and DG became desperate. All that adds up.
good enough for you?
That makes this not reasonable. For you maybe but not an experienced General Manager...
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I don't really see this Solder situation as a simple glaring, easy to identify mistake.
Yes, I outlined why in a reasonable manner. That doesn't mean that I think my way is absolute.
You assumed snarkiness. Absolutely none on my end in any of my responses. Although I doubt that you trust what I say, which is fine.
I felt you were clearly being snarky, if I was wrong, apologize.
That's a recurring theme with DG in FA. Regardless of whether or not the price is too high, the talent acquired turns out to be too low, often shockingly low.
As everyone who ever signed a contract realizes.
The GM signed a contract assuming Performance
Solder signed assuming his Performance
If Solder was not injured or performed 15-20% better...is this a big problem for the team?
Any Gm is only responsible for a decision with risk (all decisions have a lot risk). The player has to perform and injuries have to be minimal. Its a ratio of price to performance.
To paraphrase Gisele, is he supposed to thrown the ball and catch the ball?
What I don't get is not the critique of the decision but the:
1) "Halo Effect" thinking
2) Absolutism otherwise known as dogma
3) Arrogance towards anyone who points out anything mitigating the group think associated
4) Snide accusations towards anyone who isn't following the dogma that Solders performance is convincing proof that DG is worse than the poster would be at being a GM.
The first rule of being a repeatedly good problem solver is to ruthlessly self assess all you do not know.
And then seek to understand more.
Then generate alternatives.
Then propose a solution and wait for the opposing feedback.
In my experience, guys who cant think and are nervous that its noticeable or wish they were smarter are default to arrogant polemic. Arrogant guys are needy guys
Ten years x 32 teams x 16 games is 5,120 games. GM's are winning 53% of the time.
No one on BBI was part of winning one game. Ever.
Does that mean we cant critique GM's or that we didn't see that Reese was a disaster? Does that mean we cant analyze how Dg is doing? Not at all. Not at all
But some humility about how much we don't know would actually help us better analyze what we are seeing.
For me, watching the team is enough of a dose of stupid.
But I don't get how NFL GMS compile a combined 53% Ws!!!!
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In comment 14675967 mort christenson said:
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The choice was made to bridge the OL. We overpaid for hoped for competency at LT when there were no other options and went with a 1 year bridge at RT this year after the inherited guys (Wheeler, Flowers) proved incapable. The center has been average.
It can't be that there were no other options for LT. Gettleman's top OL target two offseasons ago was Norwell, not Solder. He must have had a plan for LT if he had signed Norwell, right? So was that plan to just trot out Flowers again?
Here's where every defense of Gettleman disintegrates: you either need to acknowledge that there was another option besides Solder that Gettleman could have opted for but went for the splash instead, or you have to at least consider the notion that the new smartest guy in the room was on the verge of bring Flowers back at LT.
Which option do you prefer to defend?
Oh, and Halapio is NOT average. He's bad.
There probably was "other" options. There had to be some LT's available, but the question for me is, were they more of a risk than a player like solder? They would have been much cheaper, but would they just be another flowers? I don't think the answer to this question is so simple.
So, what about trading for an LT? Well, I'm sure someone was willing to part with an older proven tackle for the right price, or willing to move a younger inexperienced tackle that really didn't have any game tape on them.
I don't really see this Solder situation as a simple glaring, easy to identify mistake. Was it a mistake? In some context, sure. The giants have not received close to what they are paying solder in game performance. To me that also shows how possibly thin available talent is available at the LT position, premium position.
Lastly, I don't get why opinions around here are necessarily labeled as a defense or an attack on Gettleman. I don't see Mort post very often, so to me I don't know if he is defending Gettleman vs explaining their POV.
I also have to confess I have gone after posters wrongly regarding Gettleman. I have labeled posters as Gettleman bashers when I didn't know their true intention.
It can be quite difficult to have a discussion while remembering that we don't know people's intentions.
I can appreciate your take here, Crick. As Jimmy mentioned above, the point isn't who the other LT options were in the 2018 offseason, just that so many rationalize the Solder signing (and the albatross that the contract has become) by framing the transaction with a context that cannot possibly be true: that Gettleman had no other choice but to sign Solder. For anyone who genuinely believes that, it would necessarily follow that his initial intention to pursue Norwell would amount to a professional malfeasance because it would have precluded Gettleman from signing the ONLY left tackle option available.
It has always been obvious that there were other options. For whatever reasons, Gettleman landed on Solder, but it wasn't because that was the only choice available to him.
Once we get that critical element settled, we can actually discuss what might have gone wrong:
Did Solder decline more rapidly than anyone could have foreseen (probably, although I specifically remember at least one poster here on BBI noting that Solder had started to allow more pressures in his last season with the Pats, so there were warning signs)?
Did our pro personnel scouting fail Gettleman? This one seems pretty likely since there have been a number of other really mediocre (and overpaid for that mediocrity) free agents signed recently.
Did Gettleman act out of desperation because of a mandate from ownership to surround Eli with veteran talent for one more attempt at a playoff run? This one feels likely even if it's a little bit conspiracy theory-ish.
Did Gettleman misjudge the talent level of the roster of his own accord? This one is the key question, IMO. This one goes right to the crux of whether DG is going to be an advantage or a liability going forward. So far, it does feel like he has a bit of a blind spot when self-scouting, that he perhaps overestimates the talent level of his own roster. If that is the case, this rebuild will take an exceedingly long time and if it ever does bear fruit, will be, to some degree, by accident.
We'll learn a lot more about the answers to those questions above when we see how DG approaches free agency this coming offseason, armed with a fair amount of cap room and what should be an obvious familiarity with the strengths and weaknesses of his own roster. Let's see how he addresses it.
Thanks again.