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NFT: FF question (for those of you up late tonight)

Leg of Theismann : 11/14/2019 12:24 am
I haven’t asked for much advice on here this year but I have a huge matchup in my league this week with major playoff implications, if I lose it will be very hard to make it in, if I win I’ll be in the drivers seat to get the last seed in the playoffs. So here goes:

Pick a defense:
San Fran (vs. Arizona)
Pittsburgh (@ Cleveland) (note: Thurs. night game)

These defenses are #2 and #3, respectively, in total fantasy points this year in my league and I have both of them. Surprisingly San Fran D only put up 3 pts against the Cards when they played them recently, though that was on the road.

Pick 2 WRs:
Terry Mclaurin (vs. NYJ) (note: Haskins starting)
Zach Pascal (vs. JAX) (note: Brissett is back, Hilton still out)
Deebo Samuel (vs. Ari) (note: Kittle and Breida out, Emmanuel Sanders possibly out)

Pick 3 RBs:
Leveon Bell (@Skins)
Mark Ingram (vs. HOU)
Devin Singletary (@MIA)
Brian Hill (@Car) (Note: Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith out)

I originally started this thread just to get a pick for the defense but figured I might as well add the other decisions as well since I have always gotten terrific advice from BBI on fantasy over the years.

Thanks guys!
these are all close calls so it's just guesswork + preference  
Eric on Li : 11/14/2019 1:02 am : link
not sure if there are any players on the opposing team that would be helpful for making the decisions, but sometimes I like to hedge players in the same games/on the same team as opponent because at least you know they get the same game flow. Especially if lesser players in my lineup can cancel out part of the other team's lineup. That said my 2 cents for whatever it's worth:

I'd go SF D. I've been riding Pitt for the last month, but on a short week they go on the road and the Browns have actually played ok against some good D's in the last couple games w/ Den + Buff. SF D gets Arizona for the 2nd time in the last few weeks, but now at home and off a loss, so I'd expect a bounce back effort. Tough to go against the streak the Steelers are on but the 49ers D does have 10+ pts in 5/6 and 17+ in 2 of the last 3. Both are good options so i'd fade the team on the road on a short week.

For the WR's Mclaurin is the most explosive but has lowest floor bc Haskins has been garbage. But we did just see what Tate and Slayton did to the Jets so there's a ceiling there. He and Samuel would probably be my 2 choices hoping for a shootout in games against weak Ds. Indy vs. Jax on the other hand could be a 6-3 game in the 4th Q.

At RB I think I'd go with the top 3 since they are more known quantities in good matchups. Hill is more of a boom or bust play and I don't have a strong feeling that he's all that good of a player. Sort of reminds me of Gallman replacing Barkley for that 1 start - though he did end up putting up a decent game, it was obviously a complete fluke since he's just not that good of a player.
I prefer  
GmeninPSL : 11/14/2019 1:03 am : link
SF vs. Arizona in spite of the fact that Mayfield is a turnover machine and Fitzpatrick is coming off two great games on the defensive side. I think the game plan for the Browns will be to utilize Chubb and Hunt as much as possible in the running game and short passing game which will limit Mayfield's tendency to throw picks.

I like Pascal over McL and Deebo

And finally Bell is my clear cut choice with Singletary as a distant 2nd. I have both and starting both. I also have the SF defense and starting them over the Vikings defense.

Good Luck...
RE: these are all close calls so it's just guesswork + preference  
Leg of Theismann : 11/14/2019 1:57 am : link
In comment 14679538 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
not sure if there are any players on the opposing team that would be helpful for making the decisions, but sometimes I like to hedge players in the same games/on the same team as opponent because at least you know they get the same game flow. Especially if lesser players in my lineup can cancel out part of the other team's lineup. That said my 2 cents for whatever it's worth:

I'd go SF D. I've been riding Pitt for the last month, but on a short week they go on the road and the Browns have actually played ok against some good D's in the last couple games w/ Den + Buff. SF D gets Arizona for the 2nd time in the last few weeks, but now at home and off a loss, so I'd expect a bounce back effort. Tough to go against the streak the Steelers are on but the 49ers D does have 10+ pts in 5/6 and 17+ in 2 of the last 3. Both are good options so i'd fade the team on the road on a short week.

For the WR's Mclaurin is the most explosive but has lowest floor bc Haskins has been garbage. But we did just see what Tate and Slayton did to the Jets so there's a ceiling there. He and Samuel would probably be my 2 choices hoping for a shootout in games against weak Ds. Indy vs. Jax on the other hand could be a 6-3 game in the 4th Q.

At RB I think I'd go with the top 3 since they are more known quantities in good matchups. Hill is more of a boom or bust play and I don't have a strong feeling that he's all that good of a player. Sort of reminds me of Gallman replacing Barkley for that 1 start - though he did end up putting up a decent game, it was obviously a complete fluke since he's just not that good of a player.


Great write-up. Thanks!! I was leaning toward those exact same choices so that is a good sign I think.
RE: I prefer  
Leg of Theismann : 11/14/2019 1:59 am : link
In comment 14679539 GmeninPSL said:
Quote:
SF vs. Arizona in spite of the fact that Mayfield is a turnover machine and Fitzpatrick is coming off two great games on the defensive side. I think the game plan for the Browns will be to utilize Chubb and Hunt as much as possible in the running game and short passing game which will limit Mayfield's tendency to throw picks.

I like Pascal over McL and Deebo

And finally Bell is my clear cut choice with Singletary as a distant 2nd. I have both and starting both. I also have the SF defense and starting them over the Vikings defense.

Good Luck...


Okay thanks! So for picking 3 of the 4, you have Bell, Singletary, then ... ? Do you start Ingram over Hill or vice versa? Basically comes down to do you take the better RB or the better matchup
RE: these are all close calls so it's just guesswork + preference  
WillVAB : 11/15/2019 6:03 pm : link
In comment 14679538 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
not sure if there are any players on the opposing team that would be helpful for making the decisions, but sometimes I like to hedge players in the same games/on the same team as opponent because at least you know they get the same game flow. Especially if lesser players in my lineup can cancel out part of the other team's lineup. That said my 2 cents for whatever it's worth:

I'd go SF D. I've been riding Pitt for the last month, but on a short week they go on the road and the Browns have actually played ok against some good D's in the last couple games w/ Den + Buff. SF D gets Arizona for the 2nd time in the last few weeks, but now at home and off a loss, so I'd expect a bounce back effort. Tough to go against the streak the Steelers are on but the 49ers D does have 10+ pts in 5/6 and 17+ in 2 of the last 3. Both are good options so i'd fade the team on the road on a short week.

For the WR's Mclaurin is the most explosive but has lowest floor bc Haskins has been garbage. But we did just see what Tate and Slayton did to the Jets so there's a ceiling there. He and Samuel would probably be my 2 choices hoping for a shootout in games against weak Ds. Indy vs. Jax on the other hand could be a 6-3 game in the 4th Q.

At RB I think I'd go with the top 3 since they are more known quantities in good matchups. Hill is more of a boom or bust play and I don't have a strong feeling that he's all that good of a player. Sort of reminds me of Gallman replacing Barkley for that 1 start - though he did end up putting up a decent game, it was obviously a complete fluke since he's just not that good of a player.


Agree with this besides the RB take. I’d go Bell, Singletary, and Hill.

The Panthers have been terrible vs the run and Hill is in line for a ton of volume. He had 20 carries last week in a much tougher matchup.

Assuming Bell plays, he’s in a very good spot vs the skins. They’ve been consistently beat by pass catching RBs all year. Even if Bell only runs for 50 yards, he could easily post a 5 for 50+ and a TD on the receiving side.

Singletary vs Ingram is the toughest call imv. Singletary has a good matchup but his usage is suspect and he’s at risk of bein vultures by Allen and Gore for TDs. Ingram, on the other hand, has a tougher matchup with very little usage in the passing game with similar vulture concerns.
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