I admit that I do not watch a lot of CFB so I do not know much about Tua or his injury history.
With that said, I have read a lot about him being injury prone on here so my question is:
"Does this latest injury drop his draft stock to the bottom of the first round or out of the first round completely or will his talent surpass his injury history and keep him atop the first round?"
He has some great intangibles... Competitive, tough, strong leader, but even before the injury, I think Tua's "draft stock" would have come down to earth (i.e. NFL talent evaluators in Feb/Mar vs draftniks in Oct/Nov).
Now add in serious injury/durability concerns... Way too early to tell, but if I had to guess right now, he goes somewhere between 25-60.
He does make some mental mistakes. I don't think he's an overwhelming physical presence.
Given the 2 ankle injuries (which should be one offs, handled by surgery and non-recurring) and now this crushing hip injury I think he drops. But what do I know.
I feel bad for him because he seems like a great kid. Someone will still draft him high in just glad it won’t be us.
One of the best performances you will see in the NCAAs this season...
He has some great intangibles... Competitive, tough, strong leader, but even before the injury, I think Tua's "draft stock" would have come down to earth (i.e. NFL talent evaluators in Feb/Mar vs draftniks in Oct/Nov).
Now add in serious injury/durability concerns... Way too early to tell, but if I had to guess right now, he goes somewhere between 25-60.
I disagree with that. I never saw an issue with arm strength, velocity or strength. The injury factor has been a worry, but Tua has always been able to sling it.
Heard this morning that former Alabama Mosley had the same injury who has gone on to have a great NFL career.
Most likely, if the prognosis is good a team will still take a chance on him with a very high pick imo. The current rookie salary structure is much better for teams currently and does not have near as big impact if you miss as a decade ago.
FYI it is not identical to the Bo Jackson injury. And we are decades of medical care progress away from that, so it wouldn't be smart to use that as a comparison.
All things considered, I think he is still a 1st round QB and as we saw with ARI last year, all it takes is one team to fall in love to draft a kid high that other teams don't view as a 1st rounder.
That's a pretty harsh assumption.
He does make some mental mistakes. I don't think he's an overwhelming physical presence.
Given the 2 ankle injuries (which should be one offs, handled by surgery and non-recurring) and now this crushing hip injury I think he drops. But what do I know.
markky - good evaluation. His accuracy is very good. My comp for him is Baker Mayfield. In terms of football.
Not all fractures are the same. The potential for a complete recovery depends on many factors. Were the fracture occurred, does the fracture interfere with the joint etc ?
In some cases there is inadequate blood flow to the area to foster proper healing I believe that was Bo’s problem and he ultimately had to have a complete hip replacement
In my case they were able to repair the fracture so that I could continue playing sports
I did however years later have to get both hips replaced which may have been do the thd origionsl injury
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Tua has some significant questions as to how his game translates at the NFL level, IMO... Specifically arm strength, velocity, and release, which are average at best.
He has some great intangibles... Competitive, tough, strong leader, but even before the injury, I think Tua's "draft stock" would have come down to earth (i.e. NFL talent evaluators in Feb/Mar vs draftniks in Oct/Nov).
Now add in serious injury/durability concerns... Way too early to tell, but if I had to guess right now, he goes somewhere between 25-60.
I disagree with that. I never saw an issue with arm strength, velocity or strength. The injury factor has been a worry, but Tua has always been able to sling it.
I agree. Tua doesn’t have plus arm strength but he can get it there. And he uses a variety of arm angles.
But I’ve never viewed him as this can’t miss prospect. He’s a very good college player in a great system surrounded by tremendous talent.
The injury history is a red flag for me. I’m not sure I would touch him in the first or second round. fact, I think he’d be better off coming back his senior year.
I think him, Burrow, Herbert all go top 10.
There’s lots of teams that have holes or pending cap decisions or aging out holes coming at QB in next year or so.
Bengals, Dolphins, Titans. I’d put the Pats, Broncos, Bucs (Winston can’t stop the turnovers), Chargers, Steelers also in the need to find next QB category. I think the Saints are going to try and hold Teddy B. Bears need to think long and hard about their future there as well. Vikings have a short term relationship with Cousins.
Within a month of the injury, Jackson had been diagnosed with avascular necrosis of the hip joint. He also was found to have lost all of the cartilage supporting his hip.[45] He would be forced to retire from football, and was then cut by the Royals in spring training. Jackson would return to competition with the White Sox toward the end of the 1991 baseball season, but not play the 1992 season while having his hip replaced.[30]
It's obviously too soon to tell, but I think this injury screwed the Giants by one spot.
Hopefully he recovers, plenty of bad breaks and good ones for him.
stock is going to plummet too much. As Sy said above,
you really have to wait on the medicals.
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Bo Jackson was forced to retire due to the same injury.
Bo Jackson had complications of the injury — that's what forced him to retire. I don't think those complications are typical. From his Wikipedia page:
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In his last game, the aforementioned playoff victory over Cincinnati in January 1991, Jackson suffered a dislocated hip following a tackle. In the film You Don't Know Bo, Jackson claimed that after he discovered the injury, he physically popped his hip back into the socket and in the process damaged the blood vessels supplying blood to the area.[44] While doctors did not find proof that Jackson physically reset his hip, they did discover that there was a fracture of one of Jackson's hip bones.
Within a month of the injury, Jackson had been diagnosed with avascular necrosis of the hip joint. He also was found to have lost all of the cartilage supporting his hip.[45] He would be forced to retire from football, and was then cut by the Royals in spring training. Jackson would return to competition with the White Sox toward the end of the 1991 baseball season, but not play the 1992 season while having his hip replaced.[30]
Whatever the full extent of the injury is it was serious enough that they flew him immediately to Tuscaloosa. It’s not a common football injury and really who knows how much this will effect him.
The only person we can compare it to is BO Jackson. It’s a more complicated injury to deal with.
Hopefully he recovers, plenty of bad breaks and good ones for him.
I enjoy watching him and Bama play. Detractors don’t have to hate Tua or Bama to point out potential issues. Mine are health related, primarily. And if he’s limited in his mobility I have concerns about his passing. Unlike Murray who has a cannon and will be effective even if he can’t scramble a ton.
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In comment 14681354 BigBlueDownTheShore said:
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Bo Jackson was forced to retire due to the same injury.
Bo Jackson had complications of the injury — that's what forced him to retire. I don't think those complications are typical. From his Wikipedia page:
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In his last game, the aforementioned playoff victory over Cincinnati in January 1991, Jackson suffered a dislocated hip following a tackle. In the film You Don't Know Bo, Jackson claimed that after he discovered the injury, he physically popped his hip back into the socket and in the process damaged the blood vessels supplying blood to the area.[44] While doctors did not find proof that Jackson physically reset his hip, they did discover that there was a fracture of one of Jackson's hip bones.
Within a month of the injury, Jackson had been diagnosed with avascular necrosis of the hip joint. He also was found to have lost all of the cartilage supporting his hip.[45] He would be forced to retire from football, and was then cut by the Royals in spring training. Jackson would return to competition with the White Sox toward the end of the 1991 baseball season, but not play the 1992 season while having his hip replaced.[30]
Whatever the full extent of the injury is it was serious enough that they flew him immediately to Tuscaloosa. It’s not a common football injury and really who knows how much this will effect him.
The only person we can compare it to is BO Jackson. It’s a more complicated injury to deal with.
That's the reason they flew him immediately to Tuscaloosa. The injury puts the femoral head at risk of losing blood supply unless it's put back into place immediately (and correctly). Bo Jackson tried to pop it back in himself which is what made it so bad it wasn't correctable and he had to retire. As long as Tua doesn't have that issue (and teams can determine that pre-draft), his career isn't at risk at least not for this specific injury.
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and routinely hits sub 4.5 receivers in stride. Much on this thread is bullshit, likely anti-bama types.
Hopefully he recovers, plenty of bad breaks and good ones for him.
I enjoy watching him and Bama play. Detractors don’t have to hate Tua or Bama to point out potential issues. Mine are health related, primarily. And if he’s limited in his mobility I have concerns about his passing. Unlike Murray who has a cannon and will be effective even if he can’t scramble a ton.
Ditto... I enjoy Bama as well...
Forget Bo Jackson, not even comparing it to him. Just adding this to all the other injuries and it always seems like something. I just don’t see him having a long NFL career.
I think Washington will finish with a worse record than the Giants and take Chase Young. I am hoping they take Andrew Thomas instead since they took Sweat in round 1 last year. I doubt they pass on a stud like Young though.
If Miami is too worried about Tua's hip they might decide to pass and instead target a QB with one of their other two 1st round picks and take the leftover player between Young and Thomas.
That would leave the Giants in a bad spot as the blue chip types are off the board.
He has some great intangibles... Competitive, tough, strong leader, but even before the injury, I think Tua's "draft stock" would have come down to earth (i.e. NFL talent evaluators in Feb/Mar vs draftniks in Oct/Nov).
Now add in serious injury/durability concerns... Way too early to tell, but if I had to guess right now, he goes somewhere between 25-60.
What? He has a plus arm, it is not average by any stretch. This injury is going to be. a huge question mark for him.
I think him, Burrow, Herbert all go top 10.
Totally agree.
In other words, if I am a QB needy team, I might use a first round pick on him, but not a first round pick plus on him. This is one less player other teams might target in a trade up.
Jackson's injury was complicated by Avascular Necrosis.... he wasn't healing because there was compromised blood flow to the injured area. NECROSIS defines Tissue Death....the healing bones were forever compromised.
I many of these major injuries the "break" and the repair are more easily defined than the Healing.