A lot of people have advocated for the Giants trading down and picking up a haul of picks, addressing several needs. Has there been some recent evidence of a really successful trade down that achieved this goal?
If you dont nail the picks whenever/wherever you do pick then what difference does that make? The RG3 trade was a big haul but the Rams ended up taking Greg Robinson over Khalil Mack. The Deshaun Watson trade for Houston because the future 1st they gave up became 4th overall... Cleveland is just retarded and passed on Quenton Nelson and Bradley Chubb.
Not easy to get teams next year’s first pick. In 2018 Colts moved from 3 to 6 and got 3 2nd rd pick. That gave them 4 2nd rd picks that year. And they used them wisely Lber Leonard, OT Braden Smith and two other defensive players.
... now that Tua is out of the picture. Burrow and Young will probably go 1 and 2, but I don't think there will be a huge market for the third pick anymore.
half this board spews trade down until I want to throw up. One, it takes 2 to tango, a fact Frequently lost around here and two- when was the last time the a Giants traded down for a “haul”? Don’t see it. Especially since they will be looking for a difference maker and the higher you pick the greater the chances.
I'd assume he's be ready to go by training camp, which will mean this injury likely won't affect his draft stock.
A little bit of a different situation but Nick Boss's injury and subsequent sitting out the remainder of last season didn't affect his draft stock. Tua has put enough on tape to still be highly coveted.
And there's still time for Fromm, Herbert, and/or Hurts to rise.
I think there's a pretty good chance Fromm will be highly coveted, but still believe at this point it will be Burrow and Tua one and two overall.
My gut says trade downs work because more picks increase the chance of finding productive players. Someone in the analytics crowd could do a simple analysis assessing all teams average number of draft picks versus average number of wins over some fixed period of time. Simplistic, but a starting point for further analysis if there appears to be a correlation between the two.
when there are perceived franchise-changing QB's available. If the Giants end up with the 3rd pick, and Burrow and Tua are gone, the pick loses some value. Teams will overpay to get a QB.
Even then, I'd be hesitant to trade out of the top 5. If there is an elite ER or LT available, you don't want to miss out.
Lot still to play out in college football as well as offseason Â
IMO is a fools errand because there are very few draft picks that can't be second guessed in some way, so that's not my point.
but...if you look at something like the Julio Jones trade down for the Browns, it was a disaster, but it didn't have to be.
Browns traded #6 in 2011 for the Falcons 1st, 2nd, 4th, 2012 1st and 4th.
The Browns wound up with:
2011
Phil Taylor (DT)
Greg Little (WR)
Owen Marecic (RB)
2012
Trent Richardson (RB)
Brandon Weeden (QB)
They, however, could have had (by selecting only players drafted after their spot):
2011
Cameron Jordan (DE)
Randall Cobb (WR)
Bilal Powell (RB)
they traded away their 3rd round pick to KC who took Justin Houston
2012
Doug Martin
Russell Wilson
so of course I'm breaking my own rule by draft second guessing, but the point isn't to criticize the Browns picks per so, but to highlight that in this case trading up by Atlanta FAR out produced trading down by the Browns, but only because the Browns are shitty drafters.
no one would be expected to nail all the picks in "who they could have been" but if the Browns hit two or three of them they would have swung this trade significantly in their favor.
bottom line is you need to nail your draft picks.
I have many examples of trade downs NOT working out at all.
especially with a team like the Patriots who is famous for it.
Not easy to get teams next year’s first pick. In 2018 Colts moved from 3 to 6 and got 3 2nd rd pick. That gave them 4 2nd rd picks that year. And they used them wisely Lber Leonard, OT Braden Smith and two other defensive players.
It may actually make the third pick more valuable
Burrow is the best QB and the next is Hebert
Cincinnati, Tampa, and Miami need QBs
One of those teams will not get a top QB
When there were three premium QBs it was not an awful to get anyone of the three
The third pick will be very desirable
If the Giants trade down I would like them to draft Epenesa or Gross-Matos
A little bit of a different situation but Nick Boss's injury and subsequent sitting out the remainder of last season didn't affect his draft stock. Tua has put enough on tape to still be highly coveted.
And there's still time for Fromm, Herbert, and/or Hurts to rise.
I think there's a pretty good chance Fromm will be highly coveted, but still believe at this point it will be Burrow and Tua one and two overall.
Even then, I'd be hesitant to trade out of the top 5. If there is an elite ER or LT available, you don't want to miss out.
Fairly certain BBI posters weren't detailing out Daniel Jones this time last year in the top 6...
but...if you look at something like the Julio Jones trade down for the Browns, it was a disaster, but it didn't have to be.
Browns traded #6 in 2011 for the Falcons 1st, 2nd, 4th, 2012 1st and 4th.
The Browns wound up with:
2011
Phil Taylor (DT)
Greg Little (WR)
Owen Marecic (RB)
2012
Trent Richardson (RB)
Brandon Weeden (QB)
They, however, could have had (by selecting only players drafted after their spot):
2011
Cameron Jordan (DE)
Randall Cobb (WR)
Bilal Powell (RB)
they traded away their 3rd round pick to KC who took Justin Houston
2012
Doug Martin
Russell Wilson
so of course I'm breaking my own rule by draft second guessing, but the point isn't to criticize the Browns picks per so, but to highlight that in this case trading up by Atlanta FAR out produced trading down by the Browns, but only because the Browns are shitty drafters.
no one would be expected to nail all the picks in "who they could have been" but if the Browns hit two or three of them they would have swung this trade significantly in their favor.