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Approach to Extending Williams

christian : 11/19/2019 8:11 am
**If we can leave the bash/praise Gettleman overall stuff to the other threads.**

I'm not sure where I fall on the trade, but I think we all agree the trade's success depends on Williams being extended.

I fear Williams has the leverage. Gettleman would have a lot to answer for if he gave up a 3rd round pick for half a season.

Positives for the Giants:
- right to franchise or transition
- 8 game tryout to gauge fit
- he knows the area and no move required

Negatives:
- ~18M tag and risk of alienating Williams
- Williams might assess the situation and want no part of it
- He might command a position topping contract with over 1.5B open cap space in the NFL this year alone

I don't see how it's in Williams's interest to extend without testing the market. I think the only good outcome for the Giants is a fair, below market setting deal, otherwise let him walk.

What factors am I missing?
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The very idea of putting a franchise tag  
gmenatlarge : 11/19/2019 8:48 am : link
on Williams is laughable. He is a career underachiever and the kind of player that can be easily acquired elsewhere for much cheaper or in the draft. A DL that is pretty good against the run, occasionally pressures the QB but never gets the sack is not something difficult to find, another DG failure!
Christian started a  
crick n NC : 11/19/2019 8:50 am : link
Good intentioned thread. Can we please leave absolute scenarios out and discuss logically and reasonably?
RE: There had to be a plan in place before the trade  
christian : 11/19/2019 8:52 am : link
In comment 14683408 BillT said:
Quote:
Whatever you think of DG he didnít make the trade without the signing of Williams as part of the equation. He probably talked to his agent and had a market price in mind. There are no guarantees but Iíd be surprised if this doesnít get done.


There's a report both sides will talk contract before Thanksgiving.

If somehow Gettleman gets Williams to sign a fair deal without testing free agency in a huge dollar market, that would be great.

That would be criminal by his agent, but great for the Giants.
If it's to be lb centric draft  
idiotsavant : 11/19/2019 8:52 am : link
(hopefully safety centric as well) you gotta nail down the front now.

Over pay put Fanny's in seats.

And draft the 5th / 6th round 340 lb classic nose T to set our current 4 off and round out the one gapping w some two gapping at spots.

Imo in a front 3 you need roster at least 5 bigs on game day.
Well  
mdthedream : 11/19/2019 9:02 am : link
if they tag him and someone makes a offer they get a pick correct?
I would rather spend the money on Yannick Ngakoue  
Jay on the Island : 11/19/2019 9:05 am : link
Than extend Golden or Williams. If they also land Chase Young in the draft then the pass rush would be among the best in football.
the whole thing is such a gamble  
Greg from LI : 11/19/2019 9:05 am : link
Giving up picks and a big contract for a guy based on the hope that he turns into a major impact player....Williams is going to have to be very, very good for the deal to be worthwhile.
christian  
Samiam : 11/19/2019 9:06 am : link
While it would be great to sign him for a reasonable amount, thatís only a part of the story. What would make it a great trade is if he plays at a level to make the team better and thatís something he hasnít done as a pro. Weíre still paying him and giving up a high 3rd plus a high later pick. Not that this means much because of the competition but the Jets defense on the last 2 games has been pretty good especially the DL granted against the Giants and the Skins
RE: the whole thing is such a gamble  
Tesla : 11/19/2019 9:09 am : link
In comment 14683445 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
Giving up picks and a big contract for a guy based on the hope that he turns into a major impact player....Williams is going to have to be very, very good for the deal to be worthwhile.


Yep. And how many underachievers finally realized their potential after getting a huge NFL contract. Approximately zero.
RE: Christian started a  
Touchdown maker : 11/19/2019 9:10 am : link
In comment 14683425 crick n NC said:
Quote:
Good intentioned thread. Can we please leave absolute scenarios out and discuss logically and reasonably?


How can you logically discuss an illogical decision. Gettlemen will now have traded a 3rd and two fourth rd picks for williams and ogletree!
RE: Christian started a  
AcidTest : 11/19/2019 9:15 am : link
In comment 14683425 crick n NC said:
Quote:
Good intentioned thread. Can we please leave absolute scenarios out and discuss logically and reasonably?


That's asking a lot for BBI.
RE: Well  
christian : 11/19/2019 9:18 am : link
In comment 14683440 mdthedream said:
Quote:
if they tag him and someone makes a offer they get a pick correct?


I don't see Williams as the type of player to get an offer over 18M guaranteed and a team willing to give the Giants compensation.
knowing GM  
mdc1 : 11/19/2019 9:20 am : link
he will pay him what he wants and keep him in NY like he wants. Williams has all the leverage, bad signing and to lose a 3rd round pick, yikes.
I'm not sure it's a bad signing  
idiotsavant : 11/19/2019 9:31 am : link
Because you will save $ on rookie lbs first contracts and not have to get a different free agent DT up front.

Plus. Who cares we want to see defense.
Oh no  
NikkiMac : 11/19/2019 9:33 am : link
Like the giants have been pretty successful with their 3rd round picks ! the guy is playing better than anyone else on the DL already......
RE: Oh no  
Greg from LI : 11/19/2019 9:36 am : link
In comment 14683480 NikkiMac said:
Quote:
Like the giants have been pretty successful with their 3rd round picks ! the guy is playing better than anyone else on the DL already......


That's some fantastic logic there.
I think realistically $16mm-$18mm/year, 5 year deal  
sb from NYT Forum : 11/19/2019 9:55 am : link
....structured so cap-friendly for 2020. Letís say $85 million with $45 million guaranteed. Small salary first year with incentives with salaries backloaded.

Iíll leave it to the experts to decide whether thatís worth it for a DL with 17 career sacks.
Agree with Samiam.  
idinkido : 11/19/2019 10:17 am : link
Williams wants to stay in the New York area and quite likely that an understanding was reached with his agent.
I'm hoping there were some kind of conversations with  
Blue21 : 11/19/2019 10:17 am : link
Williams and his agent before the trade that makes them feel comfortable they can retain him for the price they may have already agreed upon.
RE: I think realistically $16mm-$18mm/year, 5 year deal  
AdamBrag : 11/19/2019 10:19 am : link
In comment 14683508 sb from NYT Forum said:
Quote:
....structured so cap-friendly for 2020. Letís say $85 million with $45 million guaranteed. Small salary first year with incentives with salaries backloaded.

Iíll leave it to the experts to decide whether thatís worth it for a DL with 17 career sacks.


Paying top 5 money for the position would obviously be terrible. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility though.
RE: Agree with Samiam.  
AdamBrag : 11/19/2019 10:20 am : link
In comment 14683533 idinkido said:
Quote:
Williams wants to stay in the New York area and quite likely that an understanding was reached with his agent.


Why wouldn't they just sign him to an extension then?
RE: RE: Agree with Samiam.  
rsjem1979 : 11/19/2019 10:30 am : link
In comment 14683540 AdamBrag said:
Quote:
In comment 14683533 idinkido said:


Quote:


Williams wants to stay in the New York area and quite likely that an understanding was reached with his agent.



Why wouldn't they just sign him to an extension then?


Because his agent isn't a moron who's going to sign a deal below market value without reviewing all the options.

That's the flaw in any defense of the trade. It relies on the premise that Williams can be extended below market value before he's either tagged or able to negotiate with 31 other teams.

Williams has all of the leverage here. Gettleman has none.
why?  
richinpa : 11/19/2019 10:38 am : link

1. No leverage for the Giants.

2. Gave up a 3rd and 4th. sometimes they pan out , sometimes they don't but you also have to figure in now what he will get paid

3. Agree they have discussed a contract value/term before doing this OR DG is a total moron. And are the owners

4. With coaching on the D being up in the air in the fans minds at least, this is a huge mistake

Sometimes you make big mistakes and have to admit it, move on.
Draft Capital isn't as huge a miss as draft captial plus a long term deal for 50M.

See how he plays the next few games. Dont give a contract before EOY and he is healthy if your giving one.

I prefer DG admits he is a Dinosaur and move on. I prefer the kid too from JAX eventhought its a 4-3....if we can get him
everything  
Enzo : 11/19/2019 10:40 am : link
stated in the original post outlines why teams not headed to the playoffs typically don't (or never) make trades like this.
RE: I suppose it's in his interests  
Josh in the City : 11/19/2019 10:45 am : link
In comment 14683389 JonC said:
Quote:
if he wants to stay with NYG. Beyond that, their ability to tag him is their only control.

I personally dislike the idea of paying him edge rusher dollars, but hope they know better than me.

I think they've proven that they do not.
First, you can only hope that Gettlemen has a plan in place  
Rjanyg : 11/19/2019 10:52 am : link
Our 3rd round pick is going to be a top 70 pick so IMO regardless of whether we re-sign Williams or not, the Jets did well.

That said, I think Williams is a good player and is scheme diverse. I think the fact that he is only 25 years old in the prime of his career makes signing him to a 5 year deal a good idea.

He should be kept and as some said if they are truly going to start negotiations prior to Thanksgiving then all the better.

As for -re-signing Golden, I agree that I would rather get Ngonkoue and possibly draft Young.

We need to have a dominant D Line once and for all.

Could you imagine this?

Young, Williams, Tomlinson, Lawrence, Yannick

That is what I am hoping DG is planning on.
This is a rare situation where a franchise tag is the best option  
Eric on Li : 11/19/2019 11:05 am : link
unlike most tag recipients the team hasn't had 4-5 years to evaluate Williams in their system. They have a half a season and an unimportant portion of the offseason.

Additionally the defense may be (likely to be?) under new leadership and a new scheme. In fact the entire coaching staff could be different.

Add in that the player himself has not completely established his value yet, and it would seem like an obvious decision to want to see more of him.

Lastly since they project to have an abundance of cap room this offseason, the inflated value for 1 year seems like a worthwhile investment vs. putting money on future caps where they will likely not have as much flexibility. At least not until they know for sure whether or not Williams can be a core player on a successful defense.

It may even make sense to tag him 2 years in a row and then let him walk to recoup a conditional pick.
No one says Williams isn't a good player  
Greg from LI : 11/19/2019 11:05 am : link
But is he good enough to trade two picks for him AND sign him to a big-money contract? That's what I am highly skeptical about.
Giants have historically been able to re-sign who they wanted to keep  
Bob in Newburgh : 11/19/2019 11:13 am : link
Not necessarily without a lot of public angst, but eventually it got done. And they have the leverage of using the franchise tag if they have to.

As long as one of the other owners does not go crazy, Giants will pay market value.

Please don't argue Landon Collins. The more you watch, the more you are convinced that the Giants did not want to keep him. In a passing league, he stinks.
Picks  
WillVAB : 11/19/2019 1:32 pm : link
People are so hung up on the picks. If you think he can be a core player you go get him.

The Jets were actively shopping LW. If the Giants didnít trade for him, someone else would have. Then that team would have the inside track on extending him or franchising him if needed.

The Giants arenít going to sign him to a ďfairĒ deal. Theyíre going to have to overpay, the question is how much. Ultimately it wonít matter if he plays to his potential.

RE: Picks  
Greg from LI : 11/19/2019 1:36 pm : link
In comment 14683795 WillVAB said:
Quote:
People are so hung up on the picks. If you think he can be a core player you go get him.


You can go get him in free agency too, and nothing Leonard Williams has done in his NFL career to date would indicate that he's worth such a price. This is all based on projection for a guy in his fifth professional season.
RE: Picks  
christian : 11/19/2019 1:37 pm : link
In comment 14683795 WillVAB said:
Quote:
People are so hung up on the picks. If you think he can be a core player you go get him.

The Jets were actively shopping LW. If the Giants didnít trade for him, someone else would have. Then that team would have the inside track on extending him or franchising him if needed.

The Giants arenít going to sign him to a ďfairĒ deal. Theyíre going to have to overpay, the question is how much. Ultimately it wonít matter if he plays to his potential.


What does overpay mean?
For those of you willing to think franchise tag  
chuckydee9 : 11/19/2019 1:54 pm : link
is he really playing like a DE who is a game changer? like a top 10-12 DE? thats the standard you would like to apply before putting a franchise tag on a player. especially at a premium position. Its estimated that franchise tag will cost us 19.3M+.. I'm sorry but LW's play doesn't warrant that even if you inflate for the market..
RE: My guess...  
bw in dc : 11/19/2019 1:58 pm : link
In comment 14683411 AdamBrag said:
Quote:
Giants will give him 4-years, $50m with $25m guaranteed.


NFW. That is a bargain. The annual is starting at $17M.
If we dont sign him  
Rudy5757 : 11/19/2019 2:24 pm : link
It could be one of the worst trades in history. Basically a losing team trades away 2 picks for an 8 game rental for a team that had no chance at the playoffs. I am a big supporter of DG but if we do not sign him I think it ownership needs to fire him.

I think we need to pay the guy though. He has been a good player for us and we need to start to keep players. I think he could be a core player and the 3rd & 4th round pick would be worth it. Yes you can find good players in those rounds but you have a guaranteed good player you keep him. He hasn't been great but he is really good and he gives the effort.
I think he  
mattyblue : 11/19/2019 7:39 pm : link
has played very well for us so far. The trade is a different conversation. However being able to make even a small impact in the amount of time he has been here is a big plus. (Again, I am leaving the trade out of this completely) Itís like any free agent, if he will only stay or go depending on where the biggest contract comes from, he probably will be gone. Like anyone else there needs to be a max amount the Giants can go to or let him walk. The concern remains that Gettleman will possibly pay way too much because of the trade.

Iím surprised that some are willing to break the bank for Golden. He has seemed to be a bit of a letdown to me. Williams is 25 and Golden is 28, Golden plays a position that needs to produce sacks where Williams is mostly more of a interior lineman type. Williams has 17 sacks total and Golden has 25 total. Williams also has over 100 more tackles. Iím comparing the players and I shouldnít. We own the trade, but it wasnít the Giants that picked him 6th overall. If I was going to pay one it would be Williams easily. I might be trying to be way too optimistic but I have high hopes for Williams. Regardless, I wouldnít have made the trade though.
RE: Picks  
rsjem1979 : 11/19/2019 8:17 pm : link
In comment 14683795 WillVAB said:
Quote:
People are so hung up on the picks. If you think he can be a core player you go get him.

The Jets were actively shopping LW. If the Giants didnít trade for him, someone else would have. Then that team would have the inside track on extending him or franchising him if needed.

The Giants arenít going to sign him to a ďfairĒ deal. Theyíre going to have to overpay, the question is how much. Ultimately it wonít matter if he plays to his potential.


It may surprise you to learn that good teams occasionally draft players in the 3rd round who can contribute at a fraction of what it will cost to keep Williams.
Williams is not an underachiever  
djm : 11/19/2019 9:19 pm : link
Iíve seen that word a lot in this thread. Heís a quality player.
RE: RE: Picks  
WillVAB : 11/19/2019 9:27 pm : link
In comment 14683800 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
In comment 14683795 WillVAB said:


Quote:


People are so hung up on the picks. If you think he can be a core player you go get him.



You can go get him in free agency too, and nothing Leonard Williams has done in his NFL career to date would indicate that he's worth such a price. This is all based on projection for a guy in his fifth professional season.


The rest of my post explained why they couldnít just ďgo get himĒ in free agency.

The Jets were shopping him and the Giants werenít the only team interested in him. If heís traded elsewhere heís not likely to even hit the market.

LW aligns philosophically with what DG is trying to build. Look at the other guys heís acquired along the defensive front. Heís young, stops the run, and pressures the QB. The sack production hasnít been there, but that doesnít mean it wonít be there as DG continues to build around that front.
RE: RE: Picks  
WillVAB : 11/19/2019 9:30 pm : link
In comment 14683801 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 14683795 WillVAB said:


Quote:


People are so hung up on the picks. If you think he can be a core player you go get him.

The Jets were actively shopping LW. If the Giants didnít trade for him, someone else would have. Then that team would have the inside track on extending him or franchising him if needed.

The Giants arenít going to sign him to a ďfairĒ deal. Theyíre going to have to overpay, the question is how much. Ultimately it wonít matter if he plays to his potential.




What does overpay mean?


It means an amount that you and probably a bunch of others will be bitching about in BBI in March.
It's very odd that people are classified as "bitching"  
NoGainDayne : 11/19/2019 9:36 pm : link
about the dollars spent on FAs when a lot of the times these things are pointed out are on the various Gettleman glorification threads that for whatever reason we keep getting every week in a horrible season.

Pointing out poor allocations of capital when the person's job it is to allocate capital properly has made various missteps I'm not sure how you could call that bitching. Now, the constant complaints about legitimate criticisms of a losing team that seems to execute poorly in certain areas especially, I think to me, that seems a lot more like bitching
RE: RE: RE: Picks  
christian : 11/19/2019 11:10 pm : link
In comment 14684190 WillVAB said:
Quote:
In comment 14683801 christian said:


Quote:


In comment 14683795 WillVAB said:


Quote:


People are so hung up on the picks. If you think he can be a core player you go get him.

The Jets were actively shopping LW. If the Giants didnít trade for him, someone else would have. Then that team would have the inside track on extending him or franchising him if needed.

The Giants arenít going to sign him to a ďfairĒ deal. Theyíre going to have to overpay, the question is how much. Ultimately it wonít matter if he plays to his potential.




What does overpay mean?



It means an amount that you and probably a bunch of others will be bitching about in BBI in March.


Man, you just aim to crush it with subtle analysis and cogent points.

But really, what do you think is a good value for this player? Even an overpay, do you even have a sense of what that might be?
Whether fans like it or not, the NFL is a cap league  
JonC : 11/20/2019 9:29 am : link
and that brings cost and value into the discussion.

To this point, DG has sucked at it.
Saying Williams could've been signed  
NorthCountryGiantsFan : 11/20/2019 10:52 am : link
in the offseason is no different than saying Jones would've been there in the 2nd. There is no basis for fact and if the risk/reward calculation tells you to go for it, you go for it. There is zero point in discussing Williams until either A) a deal is reached, or B)we reach free agency and he's free to sign with another team. Until then, there is no way to accurately judge this deal.
RE: Williams is not an underachiever  
Gatorade Dunk : 11/20/2019 11:50 am : link
In comment 14684185 djm said:
Quote:
Iíve seen that word a lot in this thread. Heís a quality player.

Relative to his draft slot and his hype entering the league, he's absolutely an underachiever. That doesn't make him a bad player, and his initial draft slot isn't that significant since we weren't the team that drafted him #6 overall. But for what he's been vs. what he was supposed to be, he has not lived up to expectations. That's the definition of an underachiever.
He'll certainly be an underachiever at $17M a year  
Go Terps : 11/20/2019 11:51 am : link
.
I still like the player  
JonC : 11/20/2019 11:53 am : link
but expected more of him based on his college performance, and projection to play DE in a 3-4, which is part of his issues in the NFL. He's not a DT imv. He is a quality NFL DL.

I'd label him an underachiever so far in the NFL.
I think the Grady Jarrett contract is a good comp  
cosmicj : 11/20/2019 12:13 pm : link
Jarrett got $68M this offseason (after the Falcons tagged him), with an $18M signing bonus and cap hits of $11m in 2019, $16M in 2020, $19M in 2021 and $22M. Jarrett is a DT but it seems analogous to Williams, with some comp increases built in.

Btw, humorously enough Jarrett is the son of Jessie Tuggle, longtime player for the Falcs a couple of decades ago. How often does that happen?
RE: Saying Williams could've been signed  
bw in dc : 11/20/2019 12:16 pm : link
In comment 14684571 NorthCountryGiantsFan said:
Quote:
in the offseason is no different than saying Jones would've been there in the 2nd. There is no basis for fact and if the risk/reward calculation tells you to go for it, you go for it. There is zero point in discussing Williams until either A) a deal is reached, or B)we reach free agency and he's free to sign with another team. Until then, there is no way to accurately judge this deal.


Sure there is. Forget the contract and draft compensation for a moment. Just look at Williams through simple supply and demand.

DL is actually a position where we seem to have a nice blend of quality and quantity. And a lot of it is young. So why in the hell would we add a player to that mix? Espeically one with uneven production, questionable motor, and ready to cash in?

There are a lot more holes to plug and fix. Glaring holes. So this is setting up as just example of poor asset and roster management by Gettleman.

Simple question - is the projected $17M for LW better off on solving OL, LB, etc or pumping more money into a good group of DLs?

Answer seems very obvious...


RE: RE: RE: RE: Picks  
WillVAB : 11/20/2019 7:20 pm : link
In comment 14684240 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 14684190 WillVAB said:


Quote:


In comment 14683801 christian said:


Quote:


In comment 14683795 WillVAB said:


Quote:


People are so hung up on the picks. If you think he can be a core player you go get him.

The Jets were actively shopping LW. If the Giants didnít trade for him, someone else would have. Then that team would have the inside track on extending him or franchising him if needed.

The Giants arenít going to sign him to a ďfairĒ deal. Theyíre going to have to overpay, the question is how much. Ultimately it wonít matter if he plays to his potential.




What does overpay mean?



It means an amount that you and probably a bunch of others will be bitching about in BBI in March.



Man, you just aim to crush it with subtle analysis and cogent points.

But really, what do you think is a good value for this player? Even an overpay, do you even have a sense of what that might be?


If I had to guess Iíd say heís looking at 15-18 mil per year. 16 mil is the high end for a 3-4 DE.

The value will come if heís a good two way DE who can increase the sack totals. Or if heís a good two way DE that opens up opportunities for other players to make plays.

At a minimum, the Giants have a young, solid, 3-4 DE thatís pretty good vs the run and pushes the pocket/gets pressure. That has value. Will he live up to a big deal? Weíll see, but I feel like heís a safer pay than the Vernon signing.

When youíre a bad team you have to overpay in FA if you want a guy. Youíre not getting a hometown discount to play for a loser and/or rebuild. These guys are competitors and want to win.

Ultimately it wonít matter if he produces. It wonít matter if the team wins. The contract will only be an issue if he/team sucks and/or heís injured all the time. Weíll see.
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